Search found 2377 matches

by azanon
Tue Jun 25, 2019 8:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio
Replies: 182
Views: 43980

Re: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio

Coato, Just a FYI, I just hopped over real quick and compared VGLT (Vanguard's LT Treasuries) to EDV on Portfolio Visualizer. Average standard deviation for the former is 11.18% vs. 19.57% for EDV. So EDV is 75% more volatile. So I didn't intend to imply that regular LT Treasuries are more volatile ...
by azanon
Tue Jun 25, 2019 7:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio
Replies: 182
Views: 43980

Re: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio

Azanon, I am quoting you here to avoid that giant yellow wall. "I'm not tracking you guys attempt to reduce to 4 ETFs, but to answer this question, the 35% vs. 20% in my portfolio was to risk balance the 4 quadrants. This is not the only explanation (because there were other variables), but you cou...
by azanon
Mon Jun 24, 2019 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio
Replies: 182
Views: 43980

Re: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio

In fact, were I to use a vanilla 60/40, I might even prefer LTPZ over, say, BND (or just "regular" TIPS such as SCHP). Curious why do you say that? I have a "normal" portfolio and use SCHP for TIPS, reason being 5-10 year inflation breakeven is much less than 30 year. I was agreeing with that - I i...
by azanon
Mon Jun 24, 2019 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio
Replies: 182
Views: 43980

Re: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio

What risk (in your portfolio) is EDV designed to counter act? EDV (Extended duration Treasuries - Treasury STRIPS) is being used to represent "Nominal Bonds" in this All-Weather portfolio and, as such, fits into the "rising inflation" and "falling growth" quadrants of the environmental box framewor...
by azanon
Mon Jun 24, 2019 10:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio
Replies: 182
Views: 43980

Re: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio

What risk (in your portfolio) is EDV designed to counter act? EDV (Extended duration Treasuries - Treasury STRIPS) is being used to represent "Nominal Bonds" in this All-Weather portfolio and, as such, fits into the "falling inflation" and "falling growth" quadrants of the environmental box framewo...
by azanon
Mon Jun 24, 2019 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio
Replies: 182
Views: 43980

Re: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio

Azanon, I am quoting you here to avoid that giant yellow wall. "I'm not tracking you guys attempt to reduce to 4 ETFs, but to answer this question, the 35% vs. 20% in my portfolio was to risk balance the 4 quadrants. This is not the only explanation (because there were other variables), but you cou...
by azanon
Mon Jun 24, 2019 7:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio
Replies: 182
Views: 43980

Re: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio

I really enjoyed reading this thread in its entirety. A couple of questions: 1. As a thought experiment, could this be trimmed down to 4 or so etfs without losing too much of its effectiveness in all 4 of the quadrants? 2. How much of the portfolio is geared to the higher than expected growth, high...
by azanon
Mon Jun 24, 2019 7:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio
Replies: 182
Views: 43980

Re: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio

azanon, thanks for the superb work on this. A couple of questions: how often and at what thresholds have you been rebalancing your version of the all-weather portfolio? I ask as someone who's been implementing your 9/2018 version since mid April 2019. I hesitate to incur taxes on short term capital...
by azanon
Mon Jun 24, 2019 7:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio
Replies: 182
Views: 43980

Re: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio

Lately, I've been working on a project of improving the Ray Dalio All-Seasons portfolio, discussed by Bridgewater here: https://www.bridgewater.com/research-library/the-all-weather-strategy/ but the brought more in the public eye by Tony Robbins recent book. If you compare the paper to the portfoli...
by azanon
Sat Jun 22, 2019 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Next 30 Years for Ray Dalio’s All Weather Portfolio?
Replies: 37
Views: 3047

Re: Next 30 Years for Ray Dalio’s All Weather Portfolio?

Have you considered investing Bogleheads-style? The Bogleheads® Philosophy 1 Develop a workable plan 2 Invest early and often 3 Never bear too much or too little risk 4 Never try to time the market 5 Use index funds when possible 6 Keep costs low 7 Diversify 8 Minimize taxes 9 Keep it simple 10 Sta...
by azanon
Sat Jun 22, 2019 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Announces Plans to Launch Commodities Fund
Replies: 154
Views: 14613

Re: New Vanguard Commodities Fund --Your Thoughts?

Yeah the quick 101 on how these work in a portfolio for those that use them, is the expected return (in isolation) is roughly just the inflation rate. And then the bonus return comes from regularly re-balancing the position of an uncorrelated, asset class. So hopefully even those that have a commod...
by azanon
Sat Jun 22, 2019 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Next 30 Years for Ray Dalio’s All Weather Portfolio?
Replies: 37
Views: 3047

Re: Next 30 Years for Ray Dalio’s All Weather Portfolio?

Have you considered investing Bogleheads-style? The Bogleheads® Philosophy 1 Develop a workable plan 2 Invest early and often 3 Never bear too much or too little risk 4 Never try to time the market 5 Use index funds when possible 6 Keep costs low 7 Diversify 8 Minimize taxes 9 Keep it simple 10 Sta...
by azanon
Fri Jun 21, 2019 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Next 30 Years for Ray Dalio’s All Weather Portfolio?
Replies: 37
Views: 3047

Re: Next 30 Years for Ray Dalio’s All Weather Portfolio?

Have you considered investing Bogleheads-style? The Bogleheads® Philosophy 1 Develop a workable plan 2 Invest early and often 3 Never bear too much or too little risk 4 Never try to time the market 5 Use index funds when possible 6 Keep costs low 7 Diversify 8 Minimize taxes 9 Keep it simple 10 Sta...
by azanon
Fri Jun 21, 2019 2:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Next 30 Years for Ray Dalio’s All Weather Portfolio?
Replies: 37
Views: 3047

Re: Next 30 Years for Ray Dalio’s All Weather Portfolio?

IMO, the market is far too complex to think that just bc yields have been falling for 30 years and are now near zero this strategy cannot continue to work for the long term. If you don't mind, I wanted to use this statement to make a clarification of how risk parity is supposed to work. If the port...
by azanon
Fri Jun 21, 2019 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Next 30 Years for Ray Dalio’s All Weather Portfolio?
Replies: 37
Views: 3047

Re: Next 30 Years for Ray Dalio’s All Weather Portfolio?

The biggest part of the portfolio is long-term treasury bonds. This chart says that 30-year yields were about 9% in mid-1989. So if you put a lump sum in the portfolio in 1989 (and just held it until today), you'd have held 30-year treasuries yielding 9% nominal, each and every year. True, the rein...
by azanon
Fri Jun 21, 2019 9:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?
Replies: 522
Views: 42879

Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

I'm sure it's been said at least 10 times, but i wanted my vote in. I distinguish between investments and occupations. Rental properties fall in the latter category, and I'm happy with just one job. If you argued rental properties pay a lot more than passive investments, as well they should! You don...
by azanon
Fri Jun 21, 2019 9:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Purpose of Stocks?
Replies: 20
Views: 1269

Re: Purpose of Stocks?

Companies don't all die at the same time, and the perpetually successful one's gains far outweight the losers. You're speaking primarily of what is referred to as "company risk", and the total stock indexes which are generally a cornerstone of boglehead philosophy are largely immune to company risk ...
by azanon
Wed Jun 19, 2019 7:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the Best Diversifier for Equity Risk? [Morningstar article]
Replies: 40
Views: 3387

Re: "Whats-the-Best-Diversifier-or-equity-risk.

There are other viable portfolios besides risk parity types. I'm not anti-cash. But I prefer cash to be invested though as to avoid what is commonly referred to as "cash drag". My risk parity portfolio has 35% LT TIPS and gold/commodities as well, btw. I am wondering if TIPS negate the need for cas...
by azanon
Tue Jun 18, 2019 3:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Don't pay full price for SiriusXM radio
Replies: 160
Views: 23874

Re: Don't pay full price for SiriusXM radio

You can also get the promo price online. I let the subscription expire first. Usually, the 5 for 6 months shows up as an option in the plans. Yeah but then don't they just autorenew your subscription since they have your credit card number? My understanding is that with SiriusXM, subscriptions don'...
by azanon
Tue Jun 18, 2019 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the Best Diversifier for Equity Risk? [Morningstar article]
Replies: 40
Views: 3387

Re: "Whats-the-Best-Diversifier-or-equity-risk.

When risk parity is being designed correctly, all of the asset classes chosen should have a higher expected return than cash. So held long enough, all of the assets classes should provide at the very least a 0% real return. And best case scenario is that several of the asset classes will do quite a...
by azanon
Tue Jun 18, 2019 3:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the Best Diversifier for Equity Risk? [Morningstar article]
Replies: 40
Views: 3387

Re: What's the Best Diversifier for Equity Risk? [Morningstar article]

I see a lot of wheel reinvention going on. Yes, for some time now, risk parity proponents have realized that if you want to have significant downside protection in a falling growth or rising inflation economic environment, your equities aren't going to be higher than about 30%, and probably even le...
by azanon
Tue Jun 18, 2019 11:18 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Don't pay full price for SiriusXM radio
Replies: 160
Views: 23874

Re: Don't pay full price for SiriusXM radio

I'll consider subscribing to SiriusXM the day I can cancel a membership online (like I can Netflix), and not a day sooner. I'd do Comcast the same way if I didn't so desperately need a strong internet connection.
by azanon
Tue Jun 18, 2019 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Am I a Boglehead?
Replies: 31
Views: 2539

Re: Am I a Boglehead?

No, but you are rich* which is not a bad consolation.

* Dividends of S&P 500 will pay only ~ 20K/million.
by azanon
Tue Jun 18, 2019 10:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the Best Diversifier for Equity Risk? [Morningstar article]
Replies: 40
Views: 3387

Re: "Whats-the-Best-Diversifier-or-equity-risk.

...I think the point he is making is the one time long treasuries did bad was due to run away inflation. So if you have both long TIPs and treasuries you should be covered in most scenarios... In order for the negative correlation to be powerful, you have to go to "risk parity" with leverage. That'...
by azanon
Tue Jun 18, 2019 7:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the Best Diversifier for Equity Risk? [Morningstar article]
Replies: 40
Views: 3387

Re: What's the Best Diversifier for Equity Risk? [Morningstar article]

I see a lot of wheel reinvention going on. Yes, for some time now, risk parity proponents have realized that if you want to have significant downside protection in a falling growth or rising inflation economic environment, your equities aren't going to be higher than about 30%, and probably even les...
by azanon
Thu Jun 13, 2019 4:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Case Against ETFs
Replies: 193
Views: 8663

Re: The Case Against ETFs

I use a threshold rebalancing method (20% bands) ~ 20 trading days (Michael Kitces recommends 20% every 10 business days). You can do that easily with ETFs during market hours and with a considerable level of precision. And with mutual funds? At my brokerage (Vanguard), if you put in an order sell s...
by azanon
Thu Jun 13, 2019 3:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Retired at 35 and have no friends :(
Replies: 113
Views: 10849

Re: Retired at 35 and have no friends :(

Now that I've left the corporate life and have free time on weekdays, I find that I have very little social life. A lot of people say this when they retire but I don't think it is true. You have exactly the same social life now as you had before you quit working. Social life is what happens outside...
by azanon
Thu Jun 13, 2019 11:38 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I'm thinking about buying a supercar anyone here done this and feedback?
Replies: 241
Views: 13238

Re: I'm thinking about buying a supercar anyone here done this and feedback?

Justin - I did think of one more point to make. I just started going to these casual car meetups we have monthly here in Little Rock, and one thing I noticed is that certain cars are anything but unique. I was particularly shocked at how many Porsches (of virtually all types) attend the event, inclu...
by azanon
Thu Jun 13, 2019 11:26 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Retired at 35 and have no friends :(
Replies: 113
Views: 10849

Re: Retired at 35 and have no friends :(

Catchy sounding, and wouldn't it be neat if it were true? There's no opting out, unfortunately. I'm personally a fan of the book "48 Laws of Power", and virtually every law is dependent on what other's think. And one of the laws arguably cautions against this viewpoint: "Law 18: Do not build fortre...
by azanon
Thu Jun 13, 2019 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is wrong with AQR?
Replies: 128
Views: 7379

Re: What is wrong with AQR?

I never personally bought the book, but wasn't managed futures on the "bad or ugly" list in "The Only Guide to Alternative Investments You'll Ever Need: The Good, the Flawed, the Bad, and the Ugly"? If so, when did that change? I could only find the "good" list quick searching the internet, and I di...
by azanon
Thu Jun 13, 2019 10:27 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Retired at 35 and have no friends :(
Replies: 113
Views: 10849

Re: Retired at 35 and have no friends :(

It doesn't matter what other people think. Once you master this, you'll be set free. Best comment in the history of the internet. Beats even 'if you're not paying for the product, you are the product' by blue_beetle on Metafilter at 1:41 PM on August 26, 2010. Catchy sounding, and wouldn't it be ne...
by azanon
Thu Jun 13, 2019 7:51 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Retired at 35 and have no friends :(
Replies: 113
Views: 10849

Re: Retired at 35 and have no friends :(

Now that I've left the corporate life and have free time on weekdays, I find that I have very little social life. A lot of people say this when they retire but I don't think it is true. You have exactly the same social life now as you had before you quit working. Social life is what happens outside...
by azanon
Wed Jun 12, 2019 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Downsides of VPW?
Replies: 101
Views: 6812

Re: Downsides of VPW?

My point was "your" VPW is probably volatile primarily because your #1 asset is stocks, not because it's VPW. So I"m just saying I think it's unfair to accuse the method of causing the volatility if one is insistent on having an equity percentage higher than, say, Vanguard Target Retirement Income ...
by azanon
Wed Jun 12, 2019 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Downsides of VPW?
Replies: 101
Views: 6812

Re: Downsides of VPW?

If I'm understanding this right, the catch to that alternative method is that it introduces some Sequencing of Return Risk (SoRR), which is arguably the greatest risk a portfolio is exposed to in early retirement. VPW has no SoRR. Yeah but it has a lot of sequence of income risk. This is a terrific...
by azanon
Wed Jun 12, 2019 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Downsides of VPW?
Replies: 101
Views: 6812

Re: Downsides of VPW?

If I'm understanding this right, the catch to that alternative method is that it introduces some Sequencing of Return Risk (SoRR), which is arguably the greatest risk a portfolio is exposed to in early retirement. VPW has no SoRR. Yeah but it has a lot of sequence of income risk. This is a terrific...
by azanon
Wed Jun 12, 2019 10:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VFMF (Vanguard Multifactor) == Closet Value Index Fund
Replies: 20
Views: 1292

Re: VFMF (Vanguard Multifactor) == Closet Value Index Fund

...TBH, I'm surprised it sells at all... Well, it hasn't sold a lot. $83 million -with-an-m since 2/15/2018. What's a fair comparison? VO, Vanguard Mid-Cap Index ETF, has $25 billion, but that's after 15 years of operation. There must be a way to figure out how much has been invested in VO since 2/...
by azanon
Wed Jun 12, 2019 10:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Downsides of VPW?
Replies: 101
Views: 6812

Re: Downsides of VPW?

As I see it VPW and other PMT() based schemes have two main downsides: First VPW is blind to risk aversion. Most people care more about a consumption decline of 50% than a consumption increase of 50%. To guard against a drastic consumption decline I suspect you should use a lower assumed rate of re...
by azanon
Wed Jun 12, 2019 8:38 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Recommend an American medium size car
Replies: 32
Views: 2318

Re: Recommend an American medium size car

My friend has a Monte Carlos 2000 which finally came to its end with too many servicing. He wants to buy a 1 year to 3 year old American medium size car. He wants a 2 doors car. Any good value and reliable car you can recommend? Also I suggested Carnax as it has a no haggle price . Good or not advi...
by azanon
Wed Jun 12, 2019 8:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VFMF (Vanguard Multifactor) == Closet Value Index Fund
Replies: 20
Views: 1292

Re: VFMF (Vanguard Multifactor) == Closet Value Index Fund

TBH, I'm surprised it sells at all. I get a value investor. I also get a momentum investor. I don't get both of those at the same time though given that they generally prefer polar opposite types of stocks.
by azanon
Wed Jun 12, 2019 8:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Downsides of VPW?
Replies: 101
Views: 6812

Re: Downsides of VPW?

As I see it VPW and other PMT() based schemes have two main downsides: First VPW is blind to risk aversion. Most people care more about a consumption decline of 50% than a consumption increase of 50%. To guard against a drastic consumption decline I suspect you should use a lower assumed rate of re...
by azanon
Wed Jun 12, 2019 7:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [Proposed changes to 401(k) and IRAs]
Replies: 67
Views: 2843

Re: "Help Is Almost Here for Retirement Savers"

I believe discussion of proposed laws that could affect investors is prohibited here.
by azanon
Wed Jun 12, 2019 7:29 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I'm thinking about buying a supercar anyone here done this and feedback?
Replies: 241
Views: 13238

Re: I'm thinking about buying a supercar anyone here done this and feedback?

I have no idea why the Acura TLX was ever brought up, and why it's getting so much attention. I regret responding to any comments about it at all since it wasn't relevant to anything. I certainly never said or suggested that Acura only manufactures sports cars. What I did say was just mentioning the...
by azanon
Tue Jun 11, 2019 3:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I'm thinking about buying a supercar anyone here done this and feedback?
Replies: 241
Views: 13238

Re: I'm thinking about buying a supercar anyone here done this and feedback?

The S4 is an OK track car, but a Miata or BRZ would be a much better learning platform. That might be the best recommendation. Get a supercar (488 GTB would be my choice) for tooling around and looking cool. Get a track day car for fun (start at lower performance and work your way up to GT3). At th...
by azanon
Tue Jun 11, 2019 11:56 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I'm thinking about buying a supercar anyone here done this and feedback?
Replies: 241
Views: 13238

Re: I'm thinking about buying a supercar anyone here done this and feedback?

Get a Miata or a BRZ and go to the track. Learning on a low powered car will help you build up your skills more than driving a high powered car. It’ll also be much more fun that driving a super car slow on public roads. Why would you have him do that when he currently owns an S4 (which would take t...
by azanon
Tue Jun 11, 2019 8:39 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I'm thinking about buying a supercar anyone here done this and feedback?
Replies: 241
Views: 13238

Re: I'm thinking about buying a supercar anyone here done this and feedback?

I believe the OP was specific in asking about a super car. MB wagons, miatas, VWs, etc are not super cars. Not an expert by any means but it seems that Ferrari and limited edition Porsche hold their value better than some of the other brands. Please stop with the giving x% to your favorite charity....
by azanon
Tue Jun 11, 2019 8:30 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I'm thinking about buying a supercar anyone here done this and feedback?
Replies: 241
Views: 13238

Re: I'm thinking about buying a supercar anyone here done this and feedback?

Get a Miata or a BRZ and go to the track. Learning on a low powered car will help you build up your skills more than driving a high powered car. It’ll also be much more fun that driving a super car slow on public roads. Why would you have him do that when he currently owns an S4 (which would take t...
by azanon
Tue Jun 11, 2019 8:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The Variable Savings Rate (VSR) -- an accumulation-time prelude to VPW
Replies: 23
Views: 2901

Re: The Variable Savings Rate (VSR) -- an accumulation-time prelude to VPW

So just skimming over this, is this technique a way of implementing "Consumption Smoothing", which i've read about from time to time? one link to a definition: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/co ... othing.asp
by azanon
Tue Jun 11, 2019 7:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you carry Umbrella Insurance?
Replies: 142
Views: 9104

Re: Do you carry Umbrella Insurance?

mptfan, just to be clear, given your professional expertise and experience, you would not recommend that individuals purchase umbrella liability on top of homeowner's insurance and auto liability? At the end of the day, each person has to make whatever decision is right for them based on their risk...
by azanon
Tue Jun 11, 2019 7:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you carry Umbrella Insurance?
Replies: 142
Views: 9104

Re: Do you carry Umbrella Insurance?

I'll typically ask my agent from time to time about claims / loss activity that he is aware of. Some of his policy holders have had claims in excess of their primary auto limits. Having a "claim" in excess of your primary limits and having to actually *pay* more than your primary limits are not the...
by azanon
Mon Jun 10, 2019 3:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I'm thinking about buying a supercar anyone here done this and feedback?
Replies: 241
Views: 13238

Re: I'm thinking about buying a supercar anyone here done this and feedback?

Consider a Golf-R. Most fun you can have with a daily driver. And space for groceries too. Golf R has actually been criticized for being a bit sterile (at least in stock form). Civic Type R, STI, and Focus RS are more engaging in this class. Mind you, the R is very very good, it's just the softer, ...