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by azanon
Tue Nov 20, 2018 3:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7925
Views: 1617359

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Annnnd, another 600+ point down day. Once again for no discernible reason other than market psychology / freaking out at every little perceived thing. Brought to you by the efficient markets! Movement on the basis of...we don't know. :wink: Let's give ourselves some credit though. If you set valuat...
by azanon
Tue Nov 20, 2018 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7925
Views: 1617359

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Looks like I picked a bad year to retire. Glad I have the core bills covered with divvys and can ride it out. The only question becomes how long this is going to go on, and how long it will take to get back to any level of sanity. One of my favorite graphs that's updated daily is here (shows long-t...
by azanon
Tue Nov 20, 2018 3:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7925
Views: 1617359

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

VTI is still showing a 2.29% gain for the year. What's all this talk about a bear market? ??? VTI on 1/2/2018: 138.22 VTI 11/20/2018 @12:32: 136.32 Down 1.37% YTD Go to Yahoo Finance and look at the "YTD" return under the performance tab. You're ignoring dividends. The +2.29% is as of COB yesterday...
by azanon
Tue Nov 20, 2018 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7925
Views: 1617359

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

VTI is still showing a 2.29% gain for the year. What's all this talk about a bear market? ??? VTI on 1/2/2018: 138.22 VTI 11/20/2018 @12:32: 136.32 Down 1.37% YTD Go to Yahoo Finance and look at the "YTD" return under the performance tab. You're ignoring dividends. The +2.29% is as of COB yesterday...
by azanon
Tue Nov 20, 2018 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7925
Views: 1617359

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I'm hoping for a full 1K down on the DOW today, so I can be entertained by Jim Cramer when I get home. It's so enjoyable watching them all panic on CNBC, and then them running a special 1hr episode on the sell-off after that.
by azanon
Tue Nov 20, 2018 8:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7925
Views: 1617359

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

DOW futures down 300 points as I post this. Let's get ready for another freefall!
by azanon
Mon Nov 19, 2018 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round
Replies: 55
Views: 5991

Re: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round

Another round of predictions “We will have low returns going forward for a long time” Sounds like something Bogle said recently, on more than one occasion. I can get a source if its necessary, maybe even a video. More specifically, it comes up every time he discusses the formula he uses (Future Mar...
by azanon
Mon Nov 19, 2018 4:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7925
Views: 1617359

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

The global market portfolio (approximated) doesn't even have 50% equities! So it's considered very risk adverse to hold more stocks than the global market does? That tell me the collective wisdom is lacking a little bit. ..... Ok, I won't post on this anymore though, as I want to stay on topic per ...
by azanon
Mon Nov 19, 2018 3:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7925
Views: 1617359

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Actually, I can tolerate equity risk but it's the losing money part that freaks me out. I don't think that word means what you think it means. If CULater is serious (this is the freefall thread after all), then it is time to get some help like from a financial advisor and a serious review of Asset ...
by azanon
Mon Nov 19, 2018 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7925
Views: 1617359

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Actually, I can tolerate equity risk but it's the losing money part that freaks me out. I don't think that word means what you think it means. If CULater is serious (this is the freefall thread after all), then it is time to get some help like from a financial advisor and a serious review of Asset ...
by azanon
Mon Nov 19, 2018 9:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA Dimensional Fund Advisors - compared
Replies: 11
Views: 1015

Re: DFA Dimensional Fund Advisors - compared

Yea then add the advisor fee to get them. Pass. This. DFA is knocked out of consideration for the vast majority of bogleheads that don't have (free) access via a 401(k). "We're" not going to pay 50-100+bp just to access these. This is Bogleheads.org. Paying ~ 1% in fees is like running a 5K race, b...
by azanon
Thu Nov 15, 2018 4:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "What If You Retire At a Stock Market Peak?" - by Ben Carlson
Replies: 49
Views: 5902

Re: "What If You Retire At a Stock Market Peak?" - by Ben Carlson

So you saw the need to point out it is mentioned on our page, but don't see any logic in being asked a follow-up question as to whether you're aware of any expert that endorses it? :confused Yes, that is right. You had ably made that assertion already upthread, and I was not contesting it. Just cor...
by azanon
Thu Nov 15, 2018 7:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "What If You Retire At a Stock Market Peak?" - by Ben Carlson
Replies: 49
Views: 5902

Re: "What If You Retire At a Stock Market Peak?" - by Ben Carlson

Thanks. You are welcome. Now do you have a name of just one retirement income expert that actually recommends that method to be utilized for retirement income. Ummm, no. Or if there isn't one, name one major financial institution (e.g. Vanguard, Fidelity) that would recommend the constant-dollar wi...
by azanon
Wed Nov 14, 2018 7:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio
Replies: 96
Views: 29006

Re: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio

Thank you for the continued updates! This was a exciting read for me. I am new here and learning. Thanks for the patience. My question is regarding the allocation breakdown. EMLC is a bond etf correct? I might be missing something but does this mean you have the allocation as: 20% Stocks 65% Bonds ...
by azanon
Wed Nov 14, 2018 7:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "What If You Retire At a Stock Market Peak?" - by Ben Carlson
Replies: 49
Views: 5902

Re: "What If You Retire At a Stock Market Peak?" - by Ben Carlson

Methodology appears to be flawed, if he is trying to evaluate the "4% Rule." In that case, the annual withdrawal is not 4% of the portfolio value each year; it is 4% of the portfolio value in the first year, which is then maintained each year (and should be adjusted for inflation). Who the heck wou...
by azanon
Wed Nov 14, 2018 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "What If You Retire At a Stock Market Peak?" - by Ben Carlson
Replies: 49
Views: 5902

Re: "What If You Retire At a Stock Market Peak?" - by Ben Carlson

For these examples I used a simple 4% rule, taking out a flat 4% of the portfolio every single year regardless of the portfolio’s performance or the economic conditions at the time. One of the biggest risks in retirement is inflation because it impacts the purchasing power of your portfolio over ti...
by azanon
Wed Nov 14, 2018 9:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "What If You Retire At a Stock Market Peak?" - by Ben Carlson
Replies: 49
Views: 5902

Re: "What If You Retire At a Stock Market Peak?" - by Ben Carlson

For these examples I used a simple 4% rule, taking out a flat 4% of the portfolio every single year regardless of the portfolio’s performance or the economic conditions at the time. One of the biggest risks in retirement is inflation because it impacts the purchasing power of your portfolio over ti...
by azanon
Wed Nov 14, 2018 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "What If You Retire At a Stock Market Peak?" - by Ben Carlson
Replies: 49
Views: 5902

Re: "What If You Retire At a Stock Market Peak?" - by Ben Carlson

One item he didn't model is the # of retirees that would have stuck with the 60/40 during those worst times. Maybe 1 in 4 people have the stomach to not flinch if their entire income or most of their income depended on the portfolio, they retired, and then immediately saw those drops associated with...
by azanon
Wed Nov 14, 2018 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "What If You Retire At a Stock Market Peak?" - by Ben Carlson
Replies: 49
Views: 5902

Re: "What If You Retire At a Stock Market Peak?" - by Ben Carlson

What if you retire without an inadequate floor income composed of SS, Pension, and SPIAs (if necessary)? Then you made a mistake. And if you did that at a market peak,then dust off your resume. Ask Wade Pfau, unless you have a portfolio so large you can live on 2% withdrawals, you need to establish ...
by azanon
Sun Nov 11, 2018 4:48 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cars similar to Toyota Corolla LE that I should consider for purchase?
Replies: 36
Views: 3828

Re: Cars similar to Toyota Corolla LE that I should consider for purchase?

If you drive the typical 12,000 miles a year then in five years your car will have 160,000 miles on it and it could very well still be going strong then but that is at least somewhat optimistic. In five years my Corolla will be hitting 60,000 miles and the powertrain warranty will just be ending. W...
by azanon
Thu Nov 08, 2018 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Core-4 Investing is LIVE! It really is this time!
Replies: 134
Views: 10286

Re: Core-4 Investing is LIVE! It really is this time!

Thanks for your contributions here Rick, and congratulations on your new Core-4 Investing site.
by azanon
Thu Nov 08, 2018 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would you still jump if you were ready, then the market dropped 50%??
Replies: 40
Views: 4633

Re: Would you still jump if you were ready, then the market dropped 50%??

Have this thought now and again. We're planning to walk away in ~ 2 years and this is something I'm trying to come to grips with now. With a 55/45 AA we should should have enough to weather most storms. I think I would still jump (with wobbly knees). What would you do? Better yet, did this happen t...
by azanon
Wed Nov 07, 2018 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman 2 Funds for Life
Replies: 41
Views: 7115

Re: Paul Merriman 2 Funds for Life

Serious comment - I can't help but wonder if the reason LC Growth has been so awesome the past 10 years or so, is because over that period of time is when SC Value, or the rise of factoring, became so popular. I think the (stock) market tries to make the most fools possible out of all of us collecti...
by azanon
Wed Nov 07, 2018 9:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: USAA getting out of mutual fund biz
Replies: 36
Views: 4483

Re: USAA getting out of mutual fund biz

columbia wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 6:58 am
My first IRA was with USAA - and then I learned about the tyranny of fees.
This. Although I do remember making over 100% one year in USAA Aggressive Growth Fund though (late 90s, i forget the exact year).
by azanon
Wed Nov 07, 2018 8:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Actively Managed Bond Funds
Replies: 24
Views: 1621

Re: Actively Managed Bond Funds

I have to disagree with the above poster. The only bonds I would refer to as being designed for safety almost exclusively are Short-term US treasury bills. Pretty much all other types (basically most of them) also have return as a reason for their purchase to varying, increasing degrees (return exp...
by azanon
Tue Nov 06, 2018 2:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Actively Managed Bond Funds
Replies: 24
Views: 1621

Re: Actively Managed Bond Funds

I have to disagree with the above poster. The only bonds I would refer to as being designed for safety almost exclusively are Short-term US treasury bills. Pretty much all other types (basically most of them) also have return as a reason for their purchase to varying, increasing degrees (return expe...
by azanon
Tue Nov 06, 2018 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Actively Managed Bond Funds
Replies: 24
Views: 1621

Re: Actively Managed Bond Funds

Fidelity has been promoting the active management of Bond Funds/ETF's. Their position is that that investors can find alpha by taking advantage of the expert analysis of active managers. It is interesting to me that by doing this Fidelity is essentially admitting that active management has NOT retu...
by azanon
Tue Nov 06, 2018 2:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: USAA credit card
Replies: 22
Views: 1691

Re: USAA credit card

Ask yourself a different question: "Is this the best rewards card I can get?" My wager is, "Not even close." Is this always the case? I thought USAA's 2.5% cash back on everything was pretty competitive for those who have it, even if no longer available to new users... That's a good card for genera...
by azanon
Tue Nov 06, 2018 12:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: USAA credit card
Replies: 22
Views: 1691

Re: USAA credit card

Ask yourself a different question: "Is this the best rewards card I can get?" My wager is, "Not even close." Is this always the case? I thought USAA's 2.5% cash back on everything was pretty competitive for those who have it, even if no longer available to new users... That's a good card for genera...
by azanon
Tue Nov 06, 2018 12:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Time Value of Money vs. Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 99
Views: 4721

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

Maybe not. The problem with the data you're referring to is that they are for the general populace and not a specific person. Factors such as health, ethnicity, wealth, family history, certain behaviors, etc. all have a significant relationship with longevity. For instance, depending on which longe...
by azanon
Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Time Value of Money vs. Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 99
Views: 4721

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

Looking at longevityillustrator for instance, I see that there is a 50% chance at 55 that either my wife and I will live to 100. So if I were to retire today this would be a reasonable number to use in the vpw equations for my first years of withdrawals. (100-55=45). I'd find another actuarial webs...
by azanon
Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:33 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Time Value of Money vs. Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 99
Views: 4721

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

Looking at longevityillustrator for instance, I see that there is a 50% chance at 55 that either my wife and I will live to 100. So if I were to retire today this would be a reasonable number to use in the vpw equations for my first years of withdrawals. (100-55=45). I'd find another actuarial webs...
by azanon
Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:26 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 785
Views: 260358

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

Looking at longevityillustrator for instance, I see that there is a 50% chance at 55 that either my wife and I will live to 100. So if I were to retire today this would be a reasonable number to use in the vpw equations for my first years of withdrawals. (100-55=45). I'd find another actuarial webs...
by azanon
Mon Nov 05, 2018 8:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 785
Views: 260358

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

Looking at longevityillustrator for instance, I see that there is a 50% chance at 55 that either my wife and I will live to 100. So if I were to retire today this would be a reasonable number to use in the vpw equations for my first years of withdrawals. (100-55=45). I'd find another actuarial webs...
by azanon
Thu Nov 01, 2018 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I'm 100% stocks
Replies: 149
Views: 17240

Re: Why I'm 100% stocks

4. There are portfolios that can get you 80% of the expected return of 100% stocks for less than 50% of the expected risk (measured by standard deviation). Rephrasing the math, why take double the risk for an extra 25% return? That's illogical, in my opinion. For some example portfolios of this com...
by azanon
Wed Oct 31, 2018 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I'm 100% stocks
Replies: 149
Views: 17240

Re: Why I'm 100% stocks

4. There are portfolios that can get you 80% of the expected return of 100% stocks for less than 50% of the expected risk (measured by standard deviation). Rephrasing the math, why take double the risk for an extra 25% return? That's illogical, in my opinion. For some example portfolios of this com...
by azanon
Wed Oct 31, 2018 8:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I'm 100% stocks
Replies: 149
Views: 17240

Re: Why I'm 100% stocks

I will point out that Warren Buffet has traditionally been mostly all US stocks + cash. He always keeps enough cash to seize opportunities. Sometimes he dabbles in foreign opportunities. It obviously has worked out quite well. Had anyone invested in an index (which did not exist) of US stocks 60 ye...
by azanon
Tue Oct 30, 2018 7:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I'm 100% stocks
Replies: 149
Views: 17240

Re: Why I'm 100% stocks

4. There are portfolios that can get you 80% of the expected return of 100% stocks for less than 50% of the expected risk (measured by standard deviation). Rephrasing the math, why take double the risk for an extra 25% return? That's illogical, in my opinion. For some example portfolios of this com...
by azanon
Tue Oct 30, 2018 7:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Company being acquired what to do with stock?
Replies: 15
Views: 1473

Re: Company being acquired what to do with stock?

I never worked for a publicly traded company (lifer government employee here), but I would think the best advice always would be to not only any more stock of a company that you worked for than you legally have to. It's risky enough that they're your employer, so it's crazy to double-down on their ...
by azanon
Tue Oct 30, 2018 7:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Company being acquired what to do with stock?
Replies: 15
Views: 1473

Re: Company being acquired what to do with stock?

I never worked for a publicly traded company (lifer government employee here), but I would think the best advice always would be to not only any more stock of a company that you worked for than you legally have to. It's risky enough that they're your employer, so it's crazy to double-down on their s...
by azanon
Tue Oct 30, 2018 5:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else feel giddy every time VXUS gets creamed? [Vanguard Total International]
Replies: 69
Views: 6236

Re: Anyone else feel giddy every time VXUS gets creamed? [Vanguard Total International]

It's not just reasonable (international) valuations. Also a strong dollar recently. When (not if) international stocks mean revert back to parity or near parity with US stocks (as they have before), and currencies mean revert too, that's going to be some pretty tremendous upside I would imagine. Yea...
by azanon
Tue Oct 30, 2018 5:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I'm 100% stocks
Replies: 149
Views: 17240

Re: Why I'm 100% stocks

4. There are portfolios that can get you 80% of the expected return of 100% stocks for less than 50% of the expected risk (measured by standard deviation). Rephrasing the math, why take double the risk for an extra 25% return? That's illogical, in my opinion . For some example portfolios of this co...
by azanon
Mon Oct 29, 2018 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I'm 100% stocks
Replies: 149
Views: 17240

Re: Why I'm 100% stocks

There's an argument for 100% stocks, for sure. But there are some requirements though: 1. Assuming 100% stocks offer the highest expected return (and that could be argued), you would only do this if expected return means everything to you, and the per-unit-risk taken for that return means nothing. I...
by azanon
Fri Oct 26, 2018 6:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Jack Bogle Book!
Replies: 46
Views: 6884

Re: New Jack Bogle Book!

Just for the record miriam2, I think static portfolios (for life) are superior to changing ones. Just as an example, take a Vanguard Wellesley for example. Who really needs more return than it provides? And who would actually consider it too risky (at any stage in life)? For question 1, someone gree...
by azanon
Wed Oct 24, 2018 3:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7925
Views: 1617359

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Nasdaq dropped 4.32%, wow. I see peeps were really clicking that sell button the last 15 minutes or so.....
by azanon
Wed Oct 24, 2018 2:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Why International Diversification Works
Replies: 119
Views: 9397

Re: Larry Swedroe: Why International Diversification Works

I don't think anyone is saying our market could potentially fall for the same reason Japan did, or that we're subject to the same risk(s) as Japan. Who knows what the reason might be if only our market fell. History was my worst subject, but probably most nations that collapsed did so for a variety ...
by azanon
Wed Oct 24, 2018 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Why International Diversification Works
Replies: 119
Views: 9397

Re: Larry Swedroe: Why International Diversification Works

I don't even get into complicated mathematics of whether it works or not. I'm quite simply too afraid to NOT diversify internationally. As much as I love the U.S., I'm just not proud (arrogant?) enough to claim that what happened to Japan (or many other mighty nations that fell in history) couldn't ...
by azanon
Mon Oct 22, 2018 9:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Investing versus debt pay-off?"
Replies: 31
Views: 1985

Re: "Investing versus debt pay-off?"

Why are people lamenting over not being able to get low interest rates for investing? Interactive Brokers current rate for a margin loan with 300K is 3.34%, and 3.04% if you have 1.5M. Have at it and amp up that portfolio! Joking aside, isn't it a good thing that the consensus is to not invest with...
by azanon
Mon Oct 22, 2018 6:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Investing versus debt pay-off?"
Replies: 31
Views: 1985

Re: "Investing versus debt pay-off?"

Why are people lamenting over not being able to get low interest rates for investing? Interactive Brokers current rate for a margin loan with 300K is 3.34%, and 3.04% if you have 1.5M. Have at it and amp up that portfolio! Joking aside, isn't it a good thing that the consensus is to not invest with ...
by azanon
Thu Oct 18, 2018 8:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"
Replies: 203
Views: 11320

Re: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"

Oh come on. Bogle has said that he prefer the US markets...however, if you desire to own Int. Markets go ahead. That is my understanding. I completely agree, the folks really just want to complain since he does not promote their position. He is hardly adamant against International. Additionally he ...