Search found 1814 matches

by azanon
Fri Jul 20, 2018 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Take Risk on Equity Side?
Replies: 77
Views: 4653

Re: Why Take Risk on Equity Side?

Overall, I just don't see a strong argument for either. You can essentially pick both, and arrive at some outstanding, risk-adjusted returns. As proof, I offer VG Wellington and Wellesley as examples. Granted, neither have junk bonds, but they certainly have riskier bonds (mostly corporates), to go ...
by azanon
Fri Jul 20, 2018 7:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Invest in Tesla?
Replies: 73
Views: 4688

Re: Invest in Tesla?

<deleted comment due to my mistake>
by azanon
Fri Jul 20, 2018 6:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Take Risk on Equity Side?
Replies: 77
Views: 4653

Re: Why Take Risk on Equity Side?

And you know what has virtually the same Sharpe ratio, half the max drawdown, yet still a 4.52% real return over 39 years? 60% HY bonds and 40% IT Treasuries. Are most people pretty happy if they can get 4% real long term? Looks like having stocks at all needs an argument. Are you stating that ever...
by azanon
Fri Jul 20, 2018 6:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Take Risk on Equity Side?
Replies: 77
Views: 4653

Re: Why Take Risk on Equity Side?

People has discussed High Dividend stocks as a surrogate bond and now we are considering High Yield Bonds as a Stock substitute. If I want bonds, I want real bonds. If I want stocks, I want real stocks. The real thing rather than the substitute. I take risk on the equity side because I want return,...
by azanon
Thu Jul 19, 2018 6:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Take Risk on Equity Side?
Replies: 77
Views: 4653

Re: Why Take Risk on Equity Side?

I'm personally quite partial to the philosophy of risk parity.. that one should have equal risks coming from all portions of the portfolio -- whether they be stocks, bonds, or anything else. Just me though. I'm a fan of risk parity too and I'm glad you brought that up. When I've heard Ray Dalio tal...
by azanon
Thu Jul 19, 2018 2:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Take Risk on Equity Side?
Replies: 77
Views: 4653

Re: Why Take Risk on Equity Side?

Trying to exclude either "risky" bonds (anything not treasuries), or stocks is trying to be smarter than the global market portfolio. Both stocks, and investment-grade bonds are huge components of the global market portfolio. So excluding either one is definitely taking an active investing strategy ...
by azanon
Thu Jul 19, 2018 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Take Risk on Equity Side?
Replies: 77
Views: 4653

Re: Why Take Risk on Equity Side?

Well, your looking at 2 asset classes in isolation. It would be better to take a portfolio wide look. ................ You know what has even higher risk adjusted returns? 60% Us stocks and 40% intermediate term treasuries. And you know what has virtually the same Sharpe ratio, half the max drawdow...
by azanon
Thu Jul 19, 2018 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Take Risk on Equity Side?
Replies: 77
Views: 4653

Re: Why Take Risk on Equity Side?

People has discussed High Dividend stocks as a surrogate bond and now we are considering High Yield Bonds as a Stock substitute. If I want bonds, I want real bonds. If I want stocks, I want real stocks. The real thing rather than the substitute. I take risk on the equity side because I want return,...
by azanon
Thu Jul 19, 2018 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Take Risk on Equity Side?
Replies: 77
Views: 4653

Re: Why Take Risk on Equity Side?

Well, your looking at 2 asset classes in isolation. It would be better to take a portfolio wide look. ................ You know what has even higher risk adjusted returns? 60% Us stocks and 40% intermediate term treasuries. And you know what has virtually the same Sharpe ratio, half the max drawdow...
by azanon
Wed Jul 18, 2018 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: More Proof Active Falls Short
Replies: 3
Views: 610

Re: Larry Swedroe: More Proof Active Falls Short

Have Vanguard index funds finally started being their actives, in aggregate? Last I had heard, it was the other way around. Specifically for Larry's article here though, the thought I had was, is he really comparing active vs. passive performance based on just one-half of a year of performance? I ca...
by azanon
Wed Jul 11, 2018 1:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The value of international stocks, in pictures
Replies: 62
Views: 7400

Re: The value of international stocks, in pictures

To be clear: my comparison was between 1) 60% S&P 500, 40% intermediate-term Treasuries, and 2) 30% S&P 500, 30% EAFE, 40% intermediate-term Treasuries. It appeared to me that you were trying to make a rebuttal of the OP's claim where he was comparing/contrasting S&P 500 vs. Global xUS stocks, and ...
by azanon
Wed Jul 11, 2018 8:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Fund is classified as non-diversified"
Replies: 44
Views: 5051

Re: "The Fund is classified as non-diversified"

There must be some disagreement on this issue within the industry as to what really constitutes being diversified because occasionally i watch Mad Money, and they have this segment where callers call in and list the 5 stocks that they own asking Cramer if they're "diversified", and often he says th...
by azanon
Wed Jul 11, 2018 7:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Fund is classified as non-diversified"
Replies: 44
Views: 5051

Re: "The Fund is classified as non-diversified"

There must be some disagreement on this issue within the industry because occasionally i watch Mad Money, and they have this segment where callers call in and list the 5 stocks that they own asking Cramer if they're "diversified", and often he says that they are. :mrgreen: You are making the assump...
by azanon
Wed Jul 11, 2018 7:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Fund is classified as non-diversified"
Replies: 44
Views: 5051

Re: "The Fund is classified as non-diversified"

There must be some disagreement on this issue within the industry as to what really constitutes being diversified because occasionally i watch Mad Money, and they have this segment where callers call in and list the 5 stocks that they own asking Cramer if they're "diversified", and often he says tha...
by azanon
Wed Jul 11, 2018 7:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The value of international stocks, in pictures
Replies: 62
Views: 7400

Re: The value of international stocks, in pictures

Are we comparing all S&P 500 vs. S&P 500/EAFE mix, or all S&P 500 vs. S&P 500/xUS stock (which would of course include emerging markets)? linear to log graphs, now a complete axing of 20% of international stocks - the most uncorrelated to US stock group i might add. It's hard to keep up with the cha...
by azanon
Tue Jul 10, 2018 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at funds managed by the Vanguard Quantitative Equity Group (VUVLX, VSEQX, VSTCX, VMNFX, VMNVX, VASFX, VPGDX)
Replies: 23
Views: 6298

Re: A look at funds managed by the Vanguard Quantitative Equity Group (VUVLX, VSEQX, VSTCX, VMNFX, VMNVX, VASFX, VPGDX)

(Old Thread bump) So I was curious what VG charged for the commodities in their Managed Payout fund (which was recently changed to 7.5% of the portfolio), and was bored so I calculated it since all of the other ERs are known. The quoted ER for managed payout is 0.34%, which is 100% acquired fund fe...
by azanon
Tue Jul 10, 2018 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why 3-funds and not 4-funds or even 2-funds?
Replies: 56
Views: 4395

Re: Why 3-funds and not 4-funds or even 2-funds?

Really all you need is one good low cost balanced fund that you keep throwing money at. Yup, the gold standard IMO is one balanced fund, VG lifestrategy being the best I'm aware of. Taylor's primary argument against it was due to negatives associated with taxable accounts. I'm among the vast majori...
by azanon
Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at funds managed by the Vanguard Quantitative Equity Group (VUVLX, VSEQX, VSTCX, VMNFX, VMNVX, VASFX, VPGDX)
Replies: 23
Views: 6298

Re: A look at funds managed by the Vanguard Quantitative Equity Group (VUVLX, VSEQX, VSTCX, VMNFX, VMNVX, VASFX, VPGDX)

(Old Thread bump) So I was curious what VG charged for the commodities in their Managed Payout fund (which was recently changed to 7.5% of the portfolio), and was bored so I calculated it since all of the other ERs are known. The quoted ER for managed payout is 0.34%, which is 100% acquired fund fee...
by azanon
Fri Jul 06, 2018 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle is not a "buy&hold at any price goose", he looks at valuations, he sold his stocks in year 2000
Replies: 48
Views: 6584

Re: Jack Bogle is not a "buy&hold at any price goose", he looks at valuations, he sold his stocks in year 2000

By reading this forum I have always felt like most users here think CAPE and other stocks valuations are useless. The only motto for many people seems to be: "buy&hold, never mind stocks valuations, just buy&hold!" It's just called "buy&hold"; You don't actually just hold your stocks and bonds! Wha...
by azanon
Thu Jul 05, 2018 7:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SS taken at 62 vs. 70, but measured from 70+
Replies: 189
Views: 11049

Re: SS taken at 62 vs. 70, but measured from 70+

OP I think you are getting a tad confused. You don't get an extra 8% return from 62-70 and then nothing. You give up 25% income for life by taking early at 62 and you get an extra 8% income for life each year deferring from 67-70. ............................. But thinking that taking early and inv...
by azanon
Thu Jul 05, 2018 6:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SS taken at 62 vs. 70, but measured from 70+
Replies: 189
Views: 11049

Re: SS taken at 62 vs. 70, but measured from 70+

Ran your scenario on ORP with just a 5% rate of return and living till 92. You are better off waiting till 70, but as that model almost always shows, the advantage is minor. According to SS: "About one out of every four 65-year-olds today will live past age 90, and one out of 10 will live past age ...
by azanon
Thu Jul 05, 2018 6:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SS taken at 62 vs. 70, but measured from 70+
Replies: 189
Views: 11049

Re: SS taken at 62 vs. 70, but measured from 70+

The 172,800 figure was not calculated by estimating a rate of return. Read the first footnote to my previous post more carefully, azanon, and you'll see that I wasn't questioning your $172,800 figure. I was questioning the $257,573 you said it would grow to in eight years. So I don't understand how...
by azanon
Thu Jul 05, 2018 6:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SS taken at 62 vs. 70, but measured from 70+
Replies: 189
Views: 11049

Re: SS taken at 62 vs. 70, but measured from 70+

One of the flaws in your earlier analysis is using the 4% rule as a direct comparison to the SS life annuity income stream. The 4% rule is a SWR for a 30 yr retirement, it does not preserve your capital but rather diminishes your portfolio to zero dollars at 30 yrs in the poor cases. As you already...
by azanon
Wed Jul 04, 2018 5:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SS taken at 62 vs. 70, but measured from 70+
Replies: 189
Views: 11049

Re: SS taken at 62 vs. 70, but measured from 70+

On average, the total amount of Social Security benefits you receive will be the same regardless as to whether you start benefits at age 62 or age 70. This is because a 62 year old will, on average, receive benefits for 8 years longer than will a 70 year old. The benefits received at different ages...
by azanon
Wed Jul 04, 2018 5:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SS taken at 62 vs. 70, but measured from 70+
Replies: 189
Views: 11049

Re: SS taken at 62 vs. 70, but measured from 70+

... I also have $172,800 ($1800x12 months x 8 years) … say I only made 5% on the 172,800 from age 62 to 70. That's $257,573 at year 70 in an investment account plus the 1800/month going forward from age 70. ... And going forward, that $257,573 will have a real return of 4% ... but the extra "360K" ...
by azanon
Wed Jul 04, 2018 5:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SS taken at 62 vs. 70, but measured from 70+
Replies: 189
Views: 11049

Re: SS taken at 62 vs. 70, but measured from 70+

If i have just $1800/month cause i took it at 62, I also have $172,800 ($1800x12 months x 8 years) i invested in a 60% portfolio at 62 cause I didn't "buy" the SS deferral. Let's say I only made 5% on the 172,800 from age 62 to 70. That's $257,573 at year 70 in an investment account plus the 1800/m...
by azanon
Wed Jul 04, 2018 5:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SS taken at 62 vs. 70, but measured from 70+
Replies: 189
Views: 11049

Re: SS taken at 62 vs. 70, but measured from 70+

If i have just $1800/month cause i took it at 62, I also have $172,800 ($1800x12 months x 8 years) i invested in a 60% portfolio at 62 cause I didn't "buy" the SS deferral. Let's say I only made 5% on the 172,800 from age 62 to 70. That's $257,573 at year 70 in an investment account plus the 1800/m...
by azanon
Wed Jul 04, 2018 5:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SS taken at 62 vs. 70, but measured from 70+
Replies: 189
Views: 11049

Re: SS taken at 62 vs. 70, but measured from 70+

Have you run your scenarios on I-Orp? Put in your nest egg and your expected SS at 62 and 70 and compare. Use the extended tab to put in your assumptions about the return you expect. Report back. I'd be curious. https://i-orp.com/TermAndC/index.html I haven't because I'm actually just an X-gen who ...
by azanon
Tue Jul 03, 2018 6:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SS taken at 62 vs. 70, but measured from 70+
Replies: 189
Views: 11049

Re: SS taken at 62 vs. 70, but measured from 70+

There are a ton of variables as to when to take SS, and there is no ideal, one-size-fits-everybody answer. 1) If family members tend to die between 68 and 74 ... you might want to take SS as soon as possible. 2) If family members live a long time ... and you work in a job you love ... and you want ...
by azanon
Tue Jul 03, 2018 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SS taken at 62 vs. 70, but measured from 70+
Replies: 189
Views: 11049

Re: SS taken at 62 vs. 70, but measured from 70+

Ok, so I often hear that delaying social security until 70 vs. taking it early at 62 is often the beneficial thing to do because of the pseudo ~ 8% return that you get on delayed Social Security. In my case, for me to do that, I would have to spend down my portfolio to "buy" the "age 70 SS annuity"...
by azanon
Tue Jul 03, 2018 6:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SS taken at 62 vs. 70, but measured from 70+
Replies: 189
Views: 11049

Re: SS taken at 62 vs. 70, but measured from 70+

Right guys, but I would KNOW from age 70 on, the effective return of the larger SS is at best the inflation rate. I'd like to think I can make age 90, so by going with the larger SS via deferral, which I would make happen by "buying" the larger SS with my portfolio, then I lock in inflation only ret...
by azanon
Tue Jul 03, 2018 5:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SS taken at 62 vs. 70, but measured from 70+
Replies: 189
Views: 11049

Re: SS taken at 62 vs. 70, but measured from 70+

Ok, so I often hear that delaying social security until 70 vs. taking it early at 62 is often the beneficial thing to do because of the pseudo ~ 8% return that you get on delayed Social Security. In my case, for me to do that, I would have to spend down my portfolio to "buy" the "age 70 SS annuity"...
by azanon
Tue Jul 03, 2018 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SS taken at 62 vs. 70, but measured from 70+
Replies: 189
Views: 11049

SS taken at 62 vs. 70, but measured from 70+

Ok, so I often hear that delaying social security until 70 vs. taking it early at 62 is often the beneficial thing to do because of the pseudo ~ 8% return that you get on delayed Social Security. In my case, for me to do that, I would have to spend down my portfolio to "buy" the "age 70 SS annuity"....
by azanon
Thu Jun 28, 2018 3:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard is really pushing their Personal Adviser Service
Replies: 65
Views: 6289

Re: Vanguard is really pushing their Personal Adviser Service

I don't get PAS at all. Much cheaper to just answer VG's questionnaire (10 questions or so), then just buy the applicable Lifestrategy fund. And if you think your situation has changed.... you guessed it; take the questionnaire again, and switch to the applicable Lifestrategy fund. Everything comes...
by azanon
Thu Jun 28, 2018 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard is really pushing their Personal Adviser Service
Replies: 65
Views: 6289

Re: Vanguard is really pushing their Personal Adviser Service

I don't get PAS at all. Much cheaper to just answer VG's questionnaire (10 questions or so), then just buy the applicable Lifestrategy fund. And if you think your situation has changed.... you guessed it; take the questionnaire again, and switch to the applicable Lifestrategy fund.
by azanon
Thu Jun 28, 2018 8:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is/ was your career and would you recommend it now?
Replies: 345
Views: 32422

Re: What is/ was your career and would you recommend it now?

I was a employee of Federal, state, and local government for over 40 years before retiring as a member of the Senior Executive Service. When I began working in the late 1960s, government service was considered an honorable profession that attracted bright minds with high ideals and a desire to serv...
by azanon
Thu Jun 28, 2018 8:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: P&i: some see commodity funds ready to heat up
Replies: 6
Views: 579

Re: P&i: some see commodity funds ready to heat up

I noticed Vanguard Managed Payout Fund recently bumped their commodity allocation up from 5% to 7.5%, just FYI.
by azanon
Wed Jun 27, 2018 8:37 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is/ was your career and would you recommend it now?
Replies: 345
Views: 32422

Re: What is/ was your career and would you recommend it now?

Bogleheads: My career: 1. Laborer on a construction project (my first job and the hardest). 2. Paratrooper in World War II 3. LIfe Insurance Salesman (disliked the most). 4. Commercial laundry manager 5. IRS Revenue Officer 6. SBA Chief of Financial Division 7. Miami-Dade Housing Director 8. Charte...
by azanon
Wed Jun 27, 2018 8:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is/ was your career and would you recommend it now?
Replies: 345
Views: 32422

Re: What is/ was your career and would you recommend it now?

Not all me (for sake of semi-anonymity on the internet) but all from close enough sources I feel confident commenting: I was expecting you to eventually reveal being CEO at some pretty large company, or something more along those lines. I think you're more in my camp; you don't have too much to wor...
by azanon
Tue Jun 26, 2018 2:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is/ was your career and would you recommend it now?
Replies: 345
Views: 32422

Re: What is/ was your career and would you recommend it now?

Taylor Larimore wrote:
Tue Jun 26, 2018 2:21 pm
azanon:

I wanted to help my country, excitement and the extra money.

Best wishes.
Taylor
Thank you so much! :sharebeer
by azanon
Tue Jun 26, 2018 2:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is/ was your career and would you recommend it now?
Replies: 345
Views: 32422

Re: What is/ was your career and would you recommend it now?

Taylor Larimore wrote:
Tue Jun 26, 2018 1:50 pm
Bogleheads:

My career:
.........
2. Paratrooper in World War II
............
Best wishes.
Taylor
Did you pick #2 because of the bonus they offered for picking that, as depicted in the TV series Band of Brothers? :D
by azanon
Tue Jun 26, 2018 2:02 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Did you celebrate when you finally hit $1m?
Replies: 161
Views: 14725

Re: Did you celebrate when you finally hit $1m?

It's not that much money when you consider that it would buy you only about a $3400/month inflation-adjusted pension which is on the low side of pensions for many who have them in workplaces where this is standard. Even coupled with, say, $2000/month social security, you would be living hand-to-mou...
by azanon
Tue Jun 26, 2018 11:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is/ was your career and would you recommend it now?
Replies: 345
Views: 32422

Re: What is/ was your career and would you recommend it now?

Environmental Regulatory Biologist with the Federal government. Now in a managerial position. All Recommended My federal job has been great; pay now exceeds 100K, benefits including eventual pension, great healthcare (3/4ths paid by benefit), the TSP for investments. And the hours and time off are p...
by azanon
Wed Jun 06, 2018 2:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Upgrade to SSD for 5-year old desktop?
Replies: 64
Views: 3516

Re: Upgrade to SSD for 5-year old desktop?

If i were going to try to keep costs of my PCs much lower than I do now (I build monster gaming rigs), I would probably just build a "budget" one every 5 years or so, so it'd have all new parts. The thought of putting a shiny new SSD, in a 5-year old motherboard, power supply, etc. admittedly makes ...
by azanon
Thu May 31, 2018 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: To be or not to be complex, that is the question
Replies: 146
Views: 12099

Re: To be or not to be complex, that is the question

Great post Rick, and you make some excellent points. If I had any concern, that would be that I hope that it's just coincidence that the simple (Broad US stock market) has so greatly outperformed in the past several years the following "alternatives": commodities, gold specifically, International s...
by azanon
Thu May 31, 2018 1:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: To be or not to be complex, that is the question
Replies: 146
Views: 12099

Re: To be or not to be complex, that is the question

Great post Rick, and you make some excellent points. If I had any concern, that would be that I hope that it's just coincidence that the simple (Broad US stock market) has so greatly outperformed in the past several years the following "alternatives": commodities, gold specifically, International st...
by azanon
Wed May 30, 2018 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I’m still not a fan of international bond funds
Replies: 173
Views: 15583

Re: I’m still not a fan of international bond funds

Saw this thread near the top today and had a thought. Going with the simplify/avoid complexity approach, why have any bonds other than intermediate term Treasuries? My understanding is there there are a considerable number of bogleheads (including at least 2 notables), that don't think lower credit...
by azanon
Wed May 30, 2018 8:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I’m still not a fan of international bond funds
Replies: 173
Views: 15583

Re: I’m still not a fan of international bond funds

Saw this thread near the top today and had a thought. Going with the simplify/avoid complexity approach, why have any bonds other than intermediate term Treasuries? My understanding is there there are a considerable number of bogleheads (including at least 2 notables), that don't think lower credit ...
by azanon
Sat May 26, 2018 10:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Theory: Total World Index a Sure Fire Win [VT/VTWSX]
Replies: 155
Views: 13192

Re: Theory: Total World Index a Sure Fire Win [VT/VTWSX]

I was just taking a look at Vanguard's active alternative to VT, the Global Equity Fund, and it is just outright trouncing VT, or any two index fund mix (if you wanted to go back further than VT) over very long periods despite the extra 30bp or so cost. It's occasions like that that also cause me t...
by azanon
Thu May 24, 2018 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Theory: Total World Index a Sure Fire Win [VT/VTWSX]
Replies: 155
Views: 13192

Re: Theory: Total World Index a Sure Fire Win [VT/VTWSX]

This is a sort of a trick question and I do not want to hide the fact that it's a trick question... but I am going to be tricky enough not to state what I think the explanation is. According to the Credit Suisse Global Returns Yearbook, from 1900 through 2017 (i.e. over a century): The total real r...