Search found 2013 matches

by azanon
Thu Jan 17, 2019 4:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle "5% Gold"
Replies: 19
Views: 1753

Re: Bogle "5% Gold"

Oh yeah right, I didn't mentally adjust for physical gold = definitely not tax sheltered. My portfolio (IAU included) is all tax sheltered, and transactions are even free now too (thanks Vanguard) not counting (extremely small) spreads (typically one cent on bid vs. ask of IAU).
by azanon
Thu Jan 17, 2019 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle "5% Gold"
Replies: 19
Views: 1753

Re: Bogle "5% Gold"

Jack said that the 5% allocation to gold would be "a hedge against some kind of catastrophe." 5% seems low for the purposes of doing much good, but OTOH, it's unlikely to do much harm if the catastrophe never manifests itself either. This makes me feel a little better about our physical gold holdin...
by azanon
Thu Jan 17, 2019 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle "5% Gold"
Replies: 19
Views: 1753

Re: Bogle "5% Gold"

Jack said that the 5% allocation to gold would be "a hedge against some kind of catastrophe." 5% seems low for the purposes of doing much good, but OTOH, it's unlikely to do much harm if the catastrophe never manifests itself either. This makes me feel a little better about our physical gold holdin...
by azanon
Thu Jan 17, 2019 8:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle has died at age 89
Replies: 783
Views: 36777

Re: John Bogle has died at age 89

Reflecting on Mr. Bogle, I have trouble forming sentences but words are popping in my head. Words like Excellence, Character, Steadfastness, Caring, Pioneer and Visionary, and so many others. I guess that will have to do for my entry here.
by azanon
Wed Jan 16, 2019 3:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Gillette Mach 3 alternatives
Replies: 81
Views: 5305

Re: Gillette Mach 3 alternatives

Strange direction this thread has gone in. I just realized, people are actually deciding to boycott Gillette because they released a commercial that offended them :P :P :P Yeah, I thought it was about blades. Oops. I had to google the commercial since I hadn't seen it. Indeed. This thread has repea...
by azanon
Wed Jan 16, 2019 8:55 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Gillette Mach 3 alternatives
Replies: 81
Views: 5305

Re: Gillette Mach 3 alternatives

Anybody try Costco’s razors? I'm still trying to go through my old stock but once I do, I'll be trying them out. I was tempted by them as well, but there was another thread on here a while back that didn't seem too favorable. I'll still probably try them once I burn through all these Fusion blades ...
by azanon
Tue Jan 15, 2019 5:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Timing the (Bond) Market
Replies: 4
Views: 384

Re: Timing the (Bond) Market

Some of the money that's made by having bonds in your portfolio isn't necessarily directly tied to just their yield, rather the often uncorrelated relationship between stocks and bonds. When you rebalance uncorrelated assets, you profit too. So on their own, definitely more risky, but if you're hold...
by azanon
Tue Jan 15, 2019 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Allocation of the 0.1%
Replies: 31
Views: 4273

Re: Yale Endowment Portfolio vs. Three-Fund Portfolio

I'd be curious if any of these family office strategies beat a simple 60% VTSAX, 40% VBMFX portfolio. I've seen some of the college endowments fail miserably against these many years. Here's Yale Endowment Asset Allocation: http://i67.tinypic.com/rsc32w.png Cheers :greedy Bogleheads: It is informat...
by azanon
Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An Annuity Hater Revisits SPIAs
Replies: 22
Views: 2783

Re: An Annuity Hater Revisits SPIAs

I would guess that a non-inflation adjusted SPIA probably matches up reasonably well with the fact that older retirees tend to spend less than younger retirees.
by azanon
Tue Jan 15, 2019 9:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Allocation of the 0.1%
Replies: 31
Views: 4273

Re: Asset Allocation of the 0.1%

I'd be curious if any of these family office strategies beat a simple 60% VTSAX, 40% VBMFX portfolio. I've seen some of the college endowments fail miserably against these many years. I very much doubt it. They would have a hard time justifying their fees with such an allocation. I doubt it as well...
by azanon
Sun Jan 13, 2019 12:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio
Replies: 117
Views: 33489

Re: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio

These portfolios all have a large allocation to long duration Treasuries/TIPS. Long duration bonds have done very well for the last 3 - 4 decades and therefore shine on backtesting. At the present time, however, they carry great duration risk which is far in excess of their modest current yield in ...
by azanon
Sat Jan 12, 2019 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio
Replies: 117
Views: 33489

Re: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio

Edit (9/5/2018) I took a closer look at estimating long-term standard deviation for each asset class (using Portfoliovisualizer), and the weight/loading to each of the 4 economic scenarios discussed in the Bridgewater "The All Weather Story", and realized that the overall weightings still weren't a...
by azanon
Thu Jan 10, 2019 12:32 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: MMORPG games
Replies: 58
Views: 4190

Re: MMORPG games

Currently playing LOTRO Legendary server while waiting on Pantheon's release.

I go back to EQ1 and played the year it launched, and then for several years after that.
by azanon
Wed Jan 09, 2019 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round
Replies: 101
Views: 11484

Re: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round

I'm an obvious fan of Dalio, as a cursory search of my posts would prove. But that being said, for one to expect an open-arms reception to some of Dalio's ideas at Boglehead forums, is probably naive at best. The "many roads to Dublin" boast, if there ever was one, was most likely a reference to ac...
by azanon
Wed Jan 09, 2019 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round
Replies: 101
Views: 11484

Re: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round

So to me, as a newbie, that begs the question, how do you structure your portfolio in the way he suggests as an average investor? The all-weather approach he shared in Tony Robbins book a few years ago? Does his position above contradict what Bogle advocates? Yes, by the all-weather suggestion he s...
by azanon
Tue Jan 08, 2019 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why isn't an AA of 75/25 with a SWR 3.75% the standard??
Replies: 62
Views: 6736

Re: Why isn't an AA of 75/25 with a SWR 3.75% the standard??

My response would focus less on the specific allocation and SWR you're proposing, and more on the fact that "constant-dollar" withdrawal method is inferior to just about every other competing retirement withdrawal method (including, but not limited to, constant percentage, variable-percentage, 1/n ...
by azanon
Tue Jan 08, 2019 5:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why isn't an AA of 75/25 with a SWR 3.75% the standard??
Replies: 62
Views: 6736

Re: Why isn't an AA of 75/25 with a SWR 3.75% the standard??

My response would focus less on the specific allocation and SWR you're proposing, and more on the fact that "constant-dollar" withdrawal method is inferior to just about every other competing retirement withdrawal method (including, but not limited to, constant percentage, variable-percentage, 1/n ...
by azanon
Tue Jan 08, 2019 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round
Replies: 101
Views: 11484

Re: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round

Dalio comes across as a used car salesman type. He doesn't "emit" trustworthiness IMHO. Care to provide evidence for your claim? Or is it time honored tradition to attack the active investor when results does not suit their perception? Just gut instinct. He may be as honest as the day is long and a...
by azanon
Tue Jan 08, 2019 4:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why isn't an AA of 75/25 with a SWR 3.75% the standard??
Replies: 62
Views: 6736

Re: Why isn't an AA of 75/25 with a SWR 3.75% the standard??

My response would focus less on the specific allocation and SWR you're proposing, and more on the fact that "constant-dollar" withdrawal method is inferior to just about every other competing retirement withdrawal method (including, but not limited to, constant percentage, variable-percentage, 1/n w...
by azanon
Tue Jan 08, 2019 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round
Replies: 101
Views: 11484

Re: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round

So to me, as a newbie, that begs the question, how do you structure your portfolio in the way he suggests as an average investor? The all-weather approach he shared in Tony Robbins book a few years ago? Does his position above contradict what Bogle advocates? Yes, by the all-weather suggestion he s...
by azanon
Tue Jan 08, 2019 8:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio
Replies: 117
Views: 33489

Re: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio

The point is, the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio is remarkably stable and the returns are very acceptable. Pretty darned hard to improve upon. Why it works, I just don't know. Probably part of it is the rebalancing. All my examples were rebalanced once a year. I like some aspects of the Permanent...
by azanon
Sat Jan 05, 2019 4:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest
Replies: 130
Views: 6090

Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Upside Tiger-blood would like to apologize to its investors in 2018 for the -12.50% performance, but make no mistake, we are winning and it's all Upside from here. Winning is in the mind, it's only reality that is in the process of catching up. 2019 "Upside Tiger-blood" official positions: Long: APA...
by azanon
Fri Dec 28, 2018 4:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey [“good growth mutual fund”]
Replies: 54
Views: 5194

Re: Dave Ramsey

No, he does not, he cites AIVSX frequently (which has beaten the S&P I think since 1932 most of which wasn't any time in the last 20 years). His mix of AIVSX/AMCPX/AMRMX/AGTHX for actively managed funds to compare against the S&P has been beaten by the S&P over 10/15 year intervals and is beaten ev...
by azanon
Wed Dec 19, 2018 12:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: USAA apology letter?
Replies: 42
Views: 6058

USAA apology letter?

Got this letter in the mail yesterday from the USAA CEO which as best I recall was (in so many words) apologized for the less than stellar recent service that some have received, citing that they've doubled in size in a very short time period, and as a result, some of their staff aren't as trained a...
by azanon
Wed Dec 19, 2018 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Bucket Approach for Retirement: A Suboptimal Behavioral Trick?"
Replies: 35
Views: 2905

Re: "The Bucket Approach for Retirement: A Suboptimal Behavioral Trick?"

Again we see that no matter the size of the cash bucket, it has a higher failure rate, more years of shortfall, worse risk-adjusted success, and worse downside-risk adjusted success than simply holding a reasonable fixed asset allocation and rebalancing annually. Yeah, I find it so odd that such kn...
by azanon
Wed Dec 19, 2018 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Diversify Globally
Replies: 47
Views: 4739

Re: Larry Swedroe: Diversify Globally

I found it a bit odd to see Warren Buffett quoted, and a reference made to his investing wisdom, in an article making a case for investing in Emerging Market Stocks, given that Warren is mostly (if not all?) a US stock investor. Might as well have thrown in Jack B's "stay the course" advice for thos...
by azanon
Thu Dec 13, 2018 10:20 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Volkswagen Reliability
Replies: 102
Views: 5357

Re: Volkswagen Reliability

For those with first hand experience with newer (2010+) Volkswagens, what has your experience been in regards to reliability? I am considering a new Golf GTI and my only reservation is whether it can serve me well for ~10 years or so. I have a 2012 GTI Autobahn I bought new. Nothing has gone wrong ...
by azanon
Wed Dec 12, 2018 8:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VMVFX (Global Minimum Volatility) as core equity holding. Your opinion?
Replies: 128
Views: 7338

Re: VMVFX (Global Minimum Volatility) as core equity holding. Your opinion?

typical.investor wrote:
Wed Dec 12, 2018 5:35 am
Current valuations of min/low vol are too expensive now I think. It doesn’t make sense to me.
I agree with this comment. This is the fund to buy if you're looking for yesterday's winning strategy.
by azanon
Tue Dec 11, 2018 4:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10061
Views: 1782068

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

There's an entire generation, or group of young employees who have been working and investing for about 10 years now, many of which probably have a portfolio they have no business owning, but they just don't know it yet. Someone within that range could brag about how easy its' been to hold an all s...
by azanon
Tue Dec 11, 2018 3:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10061
Views: 1782068

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

There's an entire generation, or group of young employees who have been working and investing for about 10 years now, many of which probably have a portfolio they have no business owning, but they just don't know it yet. Someone within that range could brag about how easy its' been to hold an all st...
by azanon
Mon Dec 10, 2018 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle says rebalancing is overhyped?!
Replies: 149
Views: 21056

Re: Jack Bogle says rebalancing is overhyped?!

On the other hand, if you rebalance frequently, or almost continuously, e.g. by holding a fund like Vanguard Balanced Index, you are certain to rebalance near the bottom--but, in fact, the effect of mean reversion is not captured, and, as I was surprised to discover, there is virtually no rebalanci...
by azanon
Mon Dec 10, 2018 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Wellesly Income
Replies: 45
Views: 5862

Re: Vanguard Wellesly Income

Any more thoughts would be greatly appreciated. I will update the board in any event after the meeting tomorrow. Thanks Peter The only issue I see has an easy solution. Wellesley has strong US bias (on both bonds and stocks). The solution is the global variant of Wellesley, recently launched. You'l...
by azanon
Sat Dec 08, 2018 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The overwhelming majority lose in a zero-sum trading game.
Replies: 52
Views: 5373

Re: The overwhelming majority lose in a zero-sum trading game.

... Quite frankly, I just like knowing an actual human is at the helm assessing whatever the current situation, such as like the volatile times we're in now. I just can't believe no one has any idea at all about what to do. For one, it's not possible for me to believe that because I can't unlearn m...
by azanon
Sat Dec 08, 2018 10:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The overwhelming majority lose in a zero-sum trading game.
Replies: 52
Views: 5373

Re: The overwhelming majority lose in a zero-sum trading game.

I'm not sure what "compensates for the arithmetic/geometric issue" means , but arithmetic geometric mean inequality is a theorem, it's an absolute mathematical truth. Yes, of course, but one could change some of the input parameters... Think to the sustained over-performance of Small-Cap Value comp...
by azanon
Fri Dec 07, 2018 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The overwhelming majority lose in a zero-sum trading game.
Replies: 52
Views: 5373

Re: The overwhelming majority lose in a zero-sum trading game.

A "below-mean" skewed return for most stocks is not necessarily a problem for an active manager. In a small portfolio (say under 100 stocks mutual fund), you only really need one or very few "future" "apples, amazons, or googles". The majority of the remaining stocks can be duds. I don't have time t...
by azanon
Fri Dec 07, 2018 9:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The overwhelming majority lose in a zero-sum trading game.
Replies: 52
Views: 5373

Re: The overwhelming majority lose in a zero-sum trading game.

I'm not sure what "compensates for the arithmetic/geometric issue" means , but arithmetic geometric mean inequality is a theorem, it's an absolute mathematical truth. Yes, of course, but one could change some of the input parameters... Think to the sustained over-performance of Small-Cap Value comp...
by azanon
Thu Dec 06, 2018 4:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The overwhelming majority lose in a zero-sum trading game.
Replies: 52
Views: 5373

Re: The overwhelming majority lose in a zero-sum trading game.

Just my opinion, but one of Boglehead's strongest viewpoint is the fight against high costs, and should focus much more on that instead of Active vs. Passive. Active just so happens to be mostly "bad" because it's usually (too) expensive. But there are exceptions on both sides of the equation (e.g....
by azanon
Thu Dec 06, 2018 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The overwhelming majority lose in a zero-sum trading game.
Replies: 52
Views: 5373

Re: The overwhelming majority lose in a zero-sum trading game.

Yes, I don't dispute that skill could beat the market. I'm just not using that assumption. I'm not understanding your brief response here, but I do think we're disagreeing, for reasons I've previously stated. In summary, if I'm only paying an extra 10-15 basis points for active management in a fund...
by azanon
Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The overwhelming majority lose in a zero-sum trading game.
Replies: 52
Views: 5373

Re: The overwhelming majority lose in a zero-sum trading game.

The fact that trading is zero-sum doesn't inherently mean it's not possible to identify those on the outperforming end of the scale. And the fact that the average fund underperforms an index should only scare someone if they're mandated to select an average (or worse) active fund. Morningstar publis...
by azanon
Tue Dec 04, 2018 9:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vang Wellesley for Retirement
Replies: 45
Views: 5624

Re: Vang Wellesley for Retirement

I am thinking putting all my 401k assets into Wellesley other then a 4 year spending cash account that I will drip fill from dividends from Wellesley. In years where capital gains are positive I may take some off the table to assist in the cash account. Thoughts ? Good idea, except pick the Global ...
by azanon
Tue Dec 04, 2018 9:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ally Invest (Up To $3500 Offer)
Replies: 9
Views: 2443

Re: Ally Invest (Up To $3500 Offer)

That's supposed to be a good deal worth making an account decision over? That's 0.175% of 2 Million. My eyebrow would hardly raise.
by azanon
Thu Nov 29, 2018 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio
Replies: 117
Views: 33489

Re: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio

The point is, the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio is remarkably stable and the returns are very acceptable. Pretty darned hard to improve upon. Why it works, I just don't know. Probably part of it is the rebalancing. All my examples were rebalanced once a year. I like some aspects of the Permanent...
by azanon
Thu Nov 29, 2018 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio
Replies: 117
Views: 33489

Re: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio

Excellent discussion! This website shows the positions held by Bridgewater: https://www.nasdaq.com/quotes/institutional-portfolio/bridgewater-associates-lp-699510 maybe it could give some clues to what products they hold for their all-weather portfolio? I forget the exact rules, but 13-f's have a l...
by azanon
Thu Nov 29, 2018 8:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio
Replies: 117
Views: 33489

Re: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio

hey man just registered to say thank you for all your hard work! This thread was amazing. Woke up today searching for this info. IM not seeming to get your market correlation results when I plug it all into portfolio vizulaizer. Any help in this regard? The generic all weather on the visualizer see...
by azanon
Tue Nov 27, 2018 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does 100% stocks make sense for very high net worth individuals
Replies: 89
Views: 7090

Re: Does 100% stocks make sense for very high net worth individuals

Considering very higher net worth individuals will want to create generational wealth to be passed on to several generations down the line, does it make sense for these individuals to go 100% stocks, since in the long run (>40 year duration) 100% stocks almost always wins? Always? They always HAVE ...
by azanon
Tue Nov 27, 2018 9:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you need to invest mostly in stocks to get rich?
Replies: 178
Views: 17260

Re: Do you need to invest mostly in stocks to get rich?

We'll just post this one more time: https://i.imgur.com/Lfz641C.png So the stock, bond, and bill graph were almost on top of each other for 50 years. Thanks for the confirmation. Now if I can live and invest for 200 years before I retire, and we can be guaranteed the future will equal the past for ...
by azanon
Fri Nov 23, 2018 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you need to invest mostly in stocks to get rich?
Replies: 178
Views: 17260

Re: Do you need to invest mostly in stocks to get rich?

At 50% equities, you're going to capture the majority of stock gains, so those portfolios (100% vs. 50%) aren't all that vastly different. Portfolios with that level of equities don't really get enough respect. Try simulating an annual rebalancing of a 50% equities portfolio from 1929 to 1932, and y...
by azanon
Tue Nov 20, 2018 5:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10061
Views: 1782068

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Wellesley has been flat for the year (slight decline actually), much like the TSM is likely to be after today. Yes, you're likely to reduce volatility, but you're also likely to reduce upside potential. But that's why it's called personal finance. I hope it works out well for you. If a 10% decline ...
by azanon
Tue Nov 20, 2018 3:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10061
Views: 1782068

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Annnnd, another 600+ point down day. Once again for no discernible reason other than market psychology / freaking out at every little perceived thing. Brought to you by the efficient markets! Movement on the basis of...we don't know. :wink: Let's give ourselves some credit though. If you set valuat...