Bogleheads.org

8301 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 21, 2023 3:18 pm [Everybody is fighting to get into Harvard, Dartmouth, Chicago, Toronto, McGill..

Maybe in your circles

The vast vast majority of students don’t even apply to these schools. I’d say of all my high school friends Harvard is the only one of these they had even heard of. But I did know someone who went to Pepperdine for…the weather.

And weather is just one factor for some students.

nisiprius wrote: ↑Mon Mar 20, 2023 8:59 pm In order to prevent a recurrence, the riskier funds are now designated as "institutional" and are required to state the actual market value of their holdings and redeem at the actual market value, even if it is less than $1/share. While the "retail" funds are allowed to redeem at $1 a share, but are required to hold very safe assets that are virtually certain to be worth $1/share.

Is there a source that explains this in greater detail?

Remember when everyone ran out to buy up all the toilet paper at the start of the pandemic, thereby making the one thing they were afraid of happening, happen? There was enough toilet paper for everyone to use a normal amount, but not enough for everyone to buy a year's worth at once. Not quite the same, as typically fractional banking literally doesn’t have “enough” available (ie, what people have a legal right to in demand deposits) by design. That’s just the nature of the system They have plenty if people don't take all of their money out at once. They held long bonds that temporarily lost value and only had an issue when forced to redeem everything at once. The people running for the door caused the problem they were afraid of. I mean,...

If he is used to the Upper Midwest climate, then Minnesota might be a good fit. If not, that's a potential issue - winter in that part of the world has to be experienced to be understood. Not that different from the Northeast. Mid 70s in September and May, 60 in October and April, mid 40s in November and March, upper 20s in December and February, low 20s in January, for high temperatures. Not sure what you mean by the northeast, but I’ll use Boston as a proxy Average high in Boston in Jan is 37. Average for Minneapolis is 25. I’d say a 12 degree average temp difference is pretty different. Now a person might not care, but it’s definitely different Boston is brutal in winter because of the very thing which moderates the temperature. The Nor...

Weather is important for old people, not for students. Of course weather is important to some students. I personally would never have gone to college way, way up north (barring a unique opportunity) cause I wouldn’t have wanted to freeze all winter. If you don’t think weather is important to 20 year olds just ask yourself where they go on Spring Break… I personally enjoy the desert in the cooler months. And if you want outdoor opportunities Oct-Apr there is going to be a ton more than somewhere cold and snowy way up north. I like green too much to permanently live in the desert, but for the four winters of college? Absolutely Spring break has value exactly because is in spring: contrast with winter. It's why going on vacation in Hawaii is ...

muffins14 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 20, 2023 10:14 pm

ScubaHogg wrote: ↑Mon Mar 20, 2023 10:11 pm

muffins14 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 20, 2023 8:38 pm I honestly think any thread titled “should we panic” should be locked, or at least re-titled to something more mature and measured

Just lock every thread if someone uses a word you dislike…?

No, I am obviously not stating that. It is in particular that the word panic is counter-productive, especially in an environment where a) we want people to make rational decisions, not panic, and b) when people panic, they cause real problems, like bank runs

Personally I’d say “no don’t panic” in such a situation.

Not lock the thread and cut the OP off from counsel

z3r0c00l wrote: ↑Mon Mar 20, 2023 9:26 pm Remember when everyone ran out to buy up all the toilet paper at the start of the pandemic, thereby making the one thing they were afraid of happening, happen? There was enough toilet paper for everyone to use a normal amount, but not enough for everyone to buy a year's worth at once.

Not quite the same, as typically fractional banking literally doesn’t have “enough” available (ie, what people have a legal right to in demand deposits) by design.

That’s just the nature of the system

muffins14 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 20, 2023 8:38 pm I honestly think any thread titled “should we panic” should be locked, or at least re-titled to something more mature and measured

Just lock every thread if someone uses a word you dislike…?

The promises that attract me are my (possibly incorrect & naive ) perception that I could decouple from the typical lending scenario and capture the banking function, effectively pay interest to myself, all while also earning tax shielded(?) returns (smallish, admittedly) on the same money at the same time while having maintained near-full control of my funds AND building a death benefit at the same time.....more of a tertiary personal target as I digest the wholistic concept. Welcome and wiser folks than me will give better answers. Just wanted to add that the above should maybe make your alarm bells go off a little. Doesn’t that seem like one product trying to do too many things? Like if I said, “this car is great. It’ll get you from...

Glockenspiel wrote: ↑Mon Mar 20, 2023 1:15 pm

Valuethinker wrote: ↑Mon Mar 20, 2023 10:38 am
If he is used to the Upper Midwest climate, then Minnesota might be a good fit. If not, that's a potential issue - winter in that part of the world has to be experienced to be understood.

Not that different from the Northeast. Mid 70s in September and May, 60 in October and April, mid 40s in November and March, upper 20s in December and February, low 20s in January, for high temperatures.

Not sure what you mean by the northeast, but I’ll use Boston as a proxy

Average high in Boston in Jan is 37. Average for Minneapolis is 25.

I’d say a 12 degree average temp difference is pretty different. Now a person might not care, but it’s definitely different

Starfish wrote: ↑Mon Mar 20, 2023 9:32 pm Weather is important for old people, not for students.

Of course weather is important to some students. I personally would never have gone to college way, way up north (barring a unique opportunity) cause I wouldn’t have wanted to freeze all winter. If you don’t think weather is important to 20 year olds just ask yourself where they go on Spring Break…

I personally enjoy the desert in the cooler months. And if you want outdoor opportunities Oct-Apr there is going to be a ton more than somewhere cold and snowy way up north. I like green too much to permanently live in the desert, but for the four winters of college? Absolutely

flarf wrote: ↑Mon Mar 20, 2023 12:43 pm
Note that running a 2-year old around on the beach all day usually means they sleep like the dead that night. Use that to your advantage; set up a baby monitor app on your phone and your wife's phone, leave one in the room and take the other down to the hotel bar for a nightcap.

I literally laughed out loud imagining the look I’d get from my wife if I suggested we leave our 2 year old alone in the hotel room. Even if we are just downstairs.

Well I'd point out two obvious things: 1) you don't know the goals or needs of the people and institutions that invested that $311B. Nor do you know if you are in anyway similar 2) people do what I consider irrational/less-than-ideal things all the time. Simply look at how much money is still in stock-choosing active ETFs/Mutual funds (or for a more extreme example, how much money is spent on lottery tickets). I guess I am focused on whether it is rational to pursue an dividend-focused strategy. Countless posts on the forum make the case that it is not. Is there a scenario where a dividend focused strategy is rational? Maybe I was too hard on it earlier. I think you could make a case that is might create some good behavior tendencies in an...

Just out of curiosity, if you want to resolve the issue, and Mastercard is declining the transactions why don't you call Mastercard? Or maybe you did and I didn't understand? In my case it was Visa and I did call. The OP reports they called too. We were told there was no indication of a declined transaction. That's what it said on the website though 'transaction declined' when making the purchase. I too was told it was the website's error and I called the airline and tried by phone - no luck. I called the bank back, had them approve the transaction before trying it, then tried again and it went through. What happens is that it gets declined in the fraud department and the regular customer service people who can see your account can't see t...

Just out of curiosity, if you want to resolve the issue, and Mastercard is declining the transactions why don't you call Mastercard?

Or maybe you did and I didn't understand?

Well I'd point out two obvious things:

1) you don't know the goals or needs of the people and institutions that invested that $311B. Nor do you know if you are in anyway similar
2) people do what I consider irrational/less-than-ideal things all the time. Simply look at how much money is still in stock-choosing active ETFs/Mutual funds (or for a more extreme example, how much money is spent on lottery tickets).

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 6:45 pm if you buy the total stock market index fund (or global stock index fund) you get the commodity exposure by owning the companies that mine those resources.

looks like the total US stock market has 2.30% basic materials, 4.90% energy

source: https://investor.vanguard.com/investmen ... omposition

As William Bernstein points out though, the portion of the TSM of commodity producing companies is basically offset with commodity consuming companies (e.g., airlines). So if you are trying to purchase commodity companies to mitigate inflation risk, TSM isn’t very helpful

My son gets admissions from U. Minnesota (Twin Cities), SUNY Stony Brook and Arizona State, all in Computer Science. Cost aside, which one is the best to attend? Has your son every been through a Minnesota winter? Going from memory (30 years ago) one of the features that the University of Minnesota brochures advertised was their extensive tunnel system so that one could avoid the weather during winter. SUNY looks to have easy access to New York City (and thus to Manhattan). For some folks this won't matter. For others this is a huge plus. ASU is, well, warmer than either of the first two. Which one fits your child best? I feel cold is better tolerated than hot weather. Except it won’t really be hot during the school year. It’ll be lovely a...

If I was 18 I’d want to go to ASU hands down. If you don’t want them to go there I’d recommend not visiting, because I’m gonna guess if they visit all three they’d choose ASU in a heartbeat (just based on probabilities)

Meadow1982 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 17, 2023 4:43 pm Thanks unfortunately the houses in my area are this price and only real fixer uppers cost under $850k.

Regardless it appears you may have bought more house than you can afford, unless your partner is kicking on money that you haven’t mentioned

MrBobcat wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 1:20 pm

ScubaHogg wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 12:39 pm

MrBobcat wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 10:28 am Go camping in a national forest.

I’m curious if you’ve done this with a two year old…?

I've done it with a 4yo, 2yo and 1yo at the same time, in a tent. Good times. Portable crib a necessity. Also bathed them in a rubbermaid container as they get dirty.

Well my hat is off to you. That sounds…not relaxing with my toddlers

MJD wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 7:58 am I'd be curious to hear what brand of bar and plates BH's have in their home gyms. I did deadlifts and power cleans regularly when I belonged to a gym, and am now looking to expand my home gym. Wonder if there's a happy medium between Rogue and a Dick's Sporting Goods 300 lb set?

I built my home gym in 2020, so I got what I could get

I’ve got a rouge rack, American barbell

https://americanbarbell.com/

And Vulcan plates

https://www.vulcanstrength.com/Bumper-P ... s-s/91.htm

It’s all perfectly acceptable. No need to pay a premium for rogue plates*

*Though personally I might today, but only for matching-aesthetic, but that’s a quite minor thing

Marseille07 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 12:43 pm I am not. If you read upthread, I said diversification helps reduce left-tail risk.

I must misunderstand, cause it seems like you are

Marseille07 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 12:36 pm
Because it's not going to matter a whole lot at the end of the day.

Marseille07 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 12:42 pm

ScubaHogg wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 12:41 pm Aside from reducing the risk tell me how you are reducing the risk?

Is that the question?

I said left-tail risk and even explained what it means in this context. What further questions do you have?

I guess why are you dismissing reducing the left tail risk?

Marseille07 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 12:36 pm

Nathan Drake wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 12:31 pm What are you after then? It's not really clear to me why you only want to buy a needle rather than the haystack.

Because it's not going to matter a whole lot at the end of the day.

Say we're betting on dice rolls. I bet $300 on the face 5; you bet $50 each on all 6 faces. Aside from the left-tail risk (i.e. face 5 doesn't show up at all for a very very long time), tell me how you are reducing any risk by betting 1/6th each on all faces.

Aside from reducing the risk tell me how you are reducing the risk?

Is that the question?

MrBobcat wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 10:28 am Go camping in a national forest.

I’m curious if you’ve done this with a two year old…?

If inflation-indexed borrowing isn't attractive for corporations and individuals, why should it be attractive for governments? Because the risk is radically different for the people who print the money…? I don't understand. If I was a government and I was able to print money, nominal bonds would be far more attractive for me as they would allow me to easily inflate away my debt by printing additional money. Can you further explain your thoughts? Mainly I was saying that just because it’s too risky and unattractive for corporations and individuals, that wouldn’t be disqualifying for a government because the risks are so radically different But if u need some reasons for the government to do it: - useful prediction market - I’m no Pollyanna ...

longinvest wrote: ↑Fri Mar 17, 2023 9:29 am If inflation-indexed borrowing isn't attractive for corporations and individuals, why should it be attractive for governments?

Because the risk is radically different for the people who print the money…?

McQ wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 10:26 pm oh wait: gold has only been a traded asset since 1971, after the collapse of the Bretton Woods agreement, the true end of the gold standard, which had held for centuries until that first thunderous crack in February 1934.

I think gold has been traded for a little bit longer than that…

“rich as Croesus” comes to mind

I am going to assume that the amount of the repayment in your situation would be more than $3,000. In that case, you will qualify for relief from having to pay taxes twice on the repaid portion of the bonus pursuant to IRC Section 1341. There will be two alternative methods available which are discussed in IRS Publication 525. Method #1 involves claiming an itemized deduction on your Federal income tax return for the tax year of the repayment. Method #2 involves claiming a tax credit on your Federal income tax return for the tax year of the repayment for the amount of the taxes you paid in the earlier year on the repaid portion of the bonus. I had a similar repayment of a bonus experience (in a subsequent year) and did the above here for m...

Thank you for the feedback. I am most appreciative of the info provided by 5oh! investor - you have given me a great tip to use a door alarm versus extra lock. I will be looking into that right now. For all those who have complete confidence in lodging door security - appears to me you might be fortunate to never travel as female, never traveled in areas where crime is higher than average or or traveled in some independently owned lodging with dicey security features. Keep on your four and five star hotels and safest locations :) lucky you. I’m curious if you have any data on hotel room invasions? Personally, I travel a lot (as a male) and my assessment is the safest place I virtually ever am is in my hotel room (which granted, are general...

I don't have a huge criticism but he's living part of his life off business expenses but not accounting for that. Imagine someone that writes a travel blog and travels around the world to jet-set destinations all year long. Their personal budget could be very low while they are funding 'fun' activities with business income so it's not a reasonable comparison to someone who is living at home and not doing that travel. I mean, I get that, but again, the blog post-dated the “retirement”, not the other way around I say that as a guy who discovered his blog pretty early, enjoyed it for awhile, but haven’t read it regularly in 8-9 years. So I’m not like a big MMM defender, but he seems to get some unfair criticism for a guy who says “hey, there ...

I’m assuming the credit card is 21% annually and not a month.

Pay it off. Like today. Do whatever it takes. That’s like $5K a year in interest alone. Don’t buy dining chairs, deplete your cash savings, do whatever you can. That interest rate is a millstone around your neck and basically is an emergency.

Edit to add: am I reading it correctly that you are spending almost 50% of your take home in mortgage and property taxes?

AAA often has very nice hotel discounts. When we traveled as a family more we easily paid for the membership with hotel discounts alone

quantAndHold wrote: ↑Wed Mar 15, 2023 8:57 pm
Western Wyoming is one of the most beautiful places on earth. South Dakota, meh.

Regardless, you make $465k. If I were in your shoes, I’d be looking at quality of life, not a puddly $25k in taxes.

I love Wyoming, but the black hills/rapid city area is gorgeous as well

I dislike taxes as much as anyone and It’s probably worth 5% of your annual income to be near your friends and family

FYI MMM stands for Mr. Money Mustache which is a popular website based on retiring very early with a frugal lifestyle. If I recall correctly his "except for" was that his spouse was still working and he had significant income from his web site. :oops: I never understand this criticism. He retired well before his web site took off. And in either case published his annual spending. Could he have been out and out lying? Possibly, but I’ve got no particular reason to think so I don't have a huge criticism but he's living part of his life off business expenses but not accounting for that. Imagine someone that writes a travel blog and travels around the world to jet-set destinations all year long. Their personal budget could be very lo...

Watty wrote: ↑Wed Mar 15, 2023 9:19 am
FYI MMM stands for Mr. Money Mustache which is a popular website based on retiring very early with a frugal lifestyle. If I recall correctly his "except for" was that his spouse was still working and he had significant income from his web site.

I never understand this criticism. He retired well before his web site took off. And in either case published his annual spending.

Could he have been out and out lying? Possibly, but I’ve got no particular reason to think so

Well, our respective families covered the cost of our pretty sizable wedding, but it was a great experience I look back on fondly. I definitely wouldn’t have given that up in exchange for the cash they spent

Fwiw

er999 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 10:50 am If you only need to spend $48k / year and have $37k/ year that is a $11k / year shortfall. You could buy a tips ladder (individual tips spent in each year they mature) for the next 30 years until you are 91 that would probably cost less than the $406k lump sum so you’d have extra money to invest — check out this thread (viewtopic.php?t=388845)

According to this you could buy a 30 year ~$11k/yr TIPS ladder for $263k

https://www.tipsladder.com/build?bondCh ... come=11000

I'm 73. For strength training I work out with light dumb bells and machines at a gym twice a week. I ride a stationary bike at home for aerobics. I am far from being a power lifter but rather than start a new conversation I thought I would just ask my question here. How hard do you have to push yourself to gain strength and endurance from exercise? Is it really necessary to experience pain from exercise in order to gain strength and endurance? Or can you just do what feels good and still get some gains? Is there any research on this? As far as research this book cites a lot of studies. May be what you are looking for *the author is a retired ER Doc/medical researcher who now coaches strength training full time https://www.amazon.com/Barbel...

tunafish wrote: ↑Sat Mar 11, 2023 7:46 pm

ScubaHogg wrote: ↑Tue Mar 07, 2023 7:04 am Caravana seems to have quite a few accords that have less than 10,000 miles, including some 2022s

https://www.carvana.com/cars/honda-accord

I thought Caravana had a bad reputation?

Maybe it does, I’ve never used them.

But just pointing out that there are lightly used accords available online today

I’m considering getting this card primarily for this benefit, because apparently since I subscribe to Disney/Hulu I’d get a discount, and the annual fee would then work out to $11 Other threads have mentioned how slow and sometimes absent the Amex charge for the insurance is. I know this would make me nervous. Is there language in their agreement that says I would be covered even if they didn’t charge me? Or would calling in work for this? I would be a very infrequent renter, but i like the idea of primary coverage and of course saving money vs paying car rental company ins fees Depending on your spending habits and your patience for essentially coupons, the Platinum pays for itself (in order of credits I used, easiest to hardest): Digital...

2. We have owned the Windsor fund since 1984. An initial $4000 was put in it and nothing,(NOTHING) was added over the years. Vanguard could not give me our cost basis yet having purchased the Windsor II fund 1 year later with $4000 they could. I was told to figure out the cost basis ourselves. What? See FINRA link below about cost basis. You—the taxpayer—are responsible for reporting your cost basis information accurately to the IRS. ... Investors should be aware that there are situations in which a firm may not be required—or is simply unable—to provide a cost-basis for a sale. This could be the case if the securities you sold were purchased many years ago , or if you transferred your holdings from one securities firm to another prior to ...

I mean, if u just spend dividends and nothing else, you are obviously going to avoid any bad SORR (in terms of running your balance down to zero).

But it’s no different than a very low and very flexible WR

2. We have owned the Windsor fund since 1984. An initial $4000 was put in it and nothing,(NOTHING) was added over the years. Vanguard could not give me our cost basis yet having purchased the Windsor II fund 1 year later with $4000 they could. I was told to figure out the cost basis ourselves. What? See FINRA link below about cost basis. You—the taxpayer—are responsible for reporting your cost basis information accurately to the IRS. ... Investors should be aware that there are situations in which a firm may not be required—or is simply unable—to provide a cost-basis for a sale. This could be the case if the securities you sold were purchased many years ago , or if you transferred your holdings from one securities firm to another prior to ...

MoonOrb wrote: ↑Wed Mar 08, 2023 4:13 pm
You could do Deception Pass in the same day you pick up and drop of the rental car. It's easy to get to. It's beautiful.

Deception pass is gonna be like 4 hours of driving round trip. That’d be too much for me for a day trip.

*4 hours mostly up and down the charmless I5 corridor I might add. Personally if I’m gonna drive that much I’d go into the mountains

CPI adjusted. Easy call

There is literally no upper limit on what inflation can be. With an inflation adjusted pension you “know what you are gonna get” and can plan accordingly. With a nominal pension? You are basically hoping for no nasty surprises for the entirety of your retirement

*said differently you can’t do an NPV calculation because you don’t know the future inflation rate

We lived in downtown DC once. Could barley sleep the first night it was so loud, with constant ambulances and police cars going by

After a few weeks I didn’t even notice them anymore. It’s amazing what you can get used to and tune out

dcabler wrote: ↑Mon Mar 06, 2023 5:59 pm
Also agree with your comment above about diversifiers in risk portfolios. I did that during my accumulation days using nominal treasury funds. As I enter retirement, I have only a risk portfolio (all stocks) and an income portfolio (TIPS using duration matching) and, eventually, Social Security. I don't rebalance between any of it. Works for me.

Cheers.

We are targeting a somewhat similar set up for retirement. Did you ever consider something like PSLDX / mild leverage for your RP?