Search found 354 matches

by jmk
Thu Sep 13, 2018 10:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today
Replies: 396
Views: 57276

Re: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today

I checked and saw that the top rate now is 2.90%. Which comes to about a 2.85% APY (if you store coupon payments in Prime Money market), higher than the current 2y bank CDs by about 0.1%. Actually, assuming semi-annual coupons are reinvested at the current Prime MM yield of 2.09%, I come up with an...
by jmk
Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today
Replies: 396
Views: 57276

Re: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today

Kevin M wrote:
Wed Sep 12, 2018 8:04 pm
I checked and saw that the top rate now is 2.90%.
Which comes to about a 2.85% APY (if you store coupon payments in Prime Money market), higher than the current 2y bank CDs by about 0.1%.
by jmk
Mon Sep 10, 2018 8:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3 fund portfolio with Money Market instead of Bonds
Replies: 26
Views: 2708

Re: 3 fund portfolio with Money Market instead of Bonds

Portfolio 1, blue, 100% "US Stock Market" Portfolio 2, red, 60% "US Stock Market," 40% "Intermediate-term Treasuries" In portfolio 2 we replaced 40% of the portfolio with a less volatile asset. What happened? Source https://imgur.com/h7Y58ro.png The standard deviation was reduced from 15.32% to 9.6...
by jmk
Mon Sep 10, 2018 7:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical SWR vs. Monte Carlo on PortfolioVisualizer.com
Replies: 69
Views: 5506

Re: Historical SWR vs. Monte Carlo on PortfolioVisualizer.com

R2D2's analysis is purely mathematical and not historical. It produces a well known and documented problem in that it does not incorporate mean reversion, which can make a very big difference in the outcome. You can set Portfolio Visualizer to use blocks of n years in doing the bootstrapping. This ...
by jmk
Sun Sep 09, 2018 2:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Non V Alternative funds through VBS?
Replies: 3
Views: 345

Re: Non V Alternative funds through VBS?

Can anyone give me some guidance in finding alternative funds through Vanguard for purposes of factor diversification added to standard TSM 60/TBM 40? . . . Before adding expensive alternative funds which depend on manager skill/luck, you might want to consider diversifying through asset classes su...
by jmk
Sat Sep 08, 2018 6:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Non V Alternative funds through VBS?
Replies: 3
Views: 345

Non V Alternative funds through VBS?

Can anyone give me some guidance in finding alternative funds through Vanguard for purposes of factor diversification added to standard TSM 60/TBM 40 (with intl)? The 133 or so alternative class ETFs from other companies seem to involves Transaction fees (not be included in the NTF lineup). Filterin...
by jmk
Sat Sep 08, 2018 5:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Low-earners- What is your profession?
Replies: 306
Views: 39961

Re: Low-earners- What is your profession?

social worker.
by jmk
Fri Sep 07, 2018 11:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical SWR vs. Monte Carlo on PortfolioVisualizer.com
Replies: 69
Views: 5506

Re: Historical SWR vs. Monte Carlo on PortfolioVisualizer.com

Now that I think about it, there really are three methodologies one could use: 1. Look at past history and keep everything "in order", 2. Use bootstrapping from historical returns (in other words, do Monte Carlo on historical returns and allow things to get out of order), and 3. Use Monte Carlo wit...
by jmk
Sat Aug 25, 2018 3:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: TIPS Versus Nominal Bonds
Replies: 46
Views: 3973

Re: Larry Swedroe: TIPS Versus Nominal Bonds

b. Why do CDs yield more than Treasuries? If the market is efficient and they are both basically riskless, why does one yield more than the other? Possible factors: While CDs have FDIC protection, they are still less safe than Treasuries. (FDIC might fail, there is a delay in getting money when ban...
by jmk
Sat Aug 25, 2018 3:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What non-Vanguard ETFs will you be looking to buy?
Replies: 62
Views: 6469

Re: What non-Vanguard ETFs will you be looking to buy?

Curious how any of the offered multifactor EFTs from other companies compare with VFMF?
by jmk
Tue Aug 14, 2018 7:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How can I use the Rising Equity Glide Path?
Replies: 61
Views: 3996

Re: How can I use the Rising Equity Glide Path?

Build up supply of bonds prior to retirement (thereby raising FI%); spend those bonds for expenses during early years of retirement (raising equity %).
by jmk
Mon Aug 13, 2018 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Bond fund returns=2 X duration minus 1"
Replies: 4
Views: 796

Re: "2 X duration minus 1"

The article that offers that rule of thumb, Corey Hoffstein, "How To Predict Bond ETF Returns": https://www.etf.com/sections/etf-strategist-corner/how-predict-bond-etf-returns?nopaging=1 To derive this rule, we make some simple assumptions. •We are investing in a bond fund that seeks to maintain a c...
by jmk
Sun Aug 12, 2018 7:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Bond fund returns=2 X duration minus 1"
Replies: 4
Views: 796

"Bond fund returns=2 X duration minus 1"

How accurate is the rule of thumb "it takes 2 times duration minus 1 to earn the current yield on a bond fund"? Or more accurately, “Current yield-to-worst of a bond fund/etf is a good predictor of annualized return over the next two times duration minus one years.” For instance, we'd expect 11.2 ye...
by jmk
Sat Aug 11, 2018 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [New Vanguard website layout starting Saturday, August 11]
Replies: 130
Views: 9616

Re: New layout of vanguard.com

You talking about within the Holdings tab? Yes, it's changed. The funds are in different order now with a different look and a new download button.
by jmk
Sun Jul 29, 2018 8:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lifestrategy moderate growth - 12% bracket ok?
Replies: 9
Views: 1117

Re: Lifestrategy moderate growth - 12% bracket ok?

I too started with only LSM and I too am in the 12% bracket. At this point I have most of my long term monies in tsm and tintl with my bond allocation mostly in my 401k and IRA CDs. However, I do still utilize Lifestrategy Moderate for my short-term bucket. LIke you, I had it before I really knew ab...
by jmk
Sat Jul 28, 2018 2:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Regret Public School?
Replies: 75
Views: 5758

Re: Regret Public School?

This question can't be answered generally. In my city, for instance, there are bad public schools and also great "magnet" public school, together with some pretty bad private schools and some good and bad charters. The best public and charter schools (both free to residents) are internationally rank...
by jmk
Thu Jul 26, 2018 4:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2-Year Treasury Note Auction
Replies: 84
Views: 7066

Re: 2-Year Treasury Note Auction

For instance, I see a 2y bank CD now that has an interest rate of 2.76% with an APY of 2.8%. The Vanguard secondary 2y CDs at 2.8% would be slightly better since they would be compared against 2.76. The 2y Vanguard CD would earn 2.8%+investment returns on investing that interest. The bank CD would ...
by jmk
Wed Jul 25, 2018 7:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2-Year Treasury Note Auction
Replies: 84
Views: 7066

Re: 2-Year Treasury Note Auction

Forum member #Cruncher recommends converting bond yield to APY if comparing to banking product APY, and APY of the 2-year note is 2.675%, which gives a TEY of 3.004%--even better. Does the standard apy formula apply with secondary cds since the interest gets siphoned off into the settlement account...
by jmk
Tue Jul 24, 2018 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2-Year Treasury Note Auction
Replies: 84
Views: 7066

Re: 2-Year Treasury Note Auction

Forum member #Cruncher recommends converting bond yield to APY if comparing to banking product APY, and APY of the 2-year note is 2.675%, which gives a TEY of 3.004%--even better. Does the standard apy formula apply with secondary cds since the interest gets siphoned off into the settlement account...
by jmk
Wed Jul 18, 2018 10:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Transfer CapOne360 to Vanguard, or easier to wait until it's E-Trade?
Replies: 22
Views: 2915

Re: Transfer CapOne360 to Vanguard, or easier to wait until it's E-Trade?

I'm in the middle of this process right now - opened a Schwab account and am transferring all my Capital One accounts there. Schwab is doing all the heavy lifting (I have not been contacted by Capital One). The only issue so far is that Schwab contacted me to say that one of the mutual funds (VOYA ...
by jmk
Sat Jul 07, 2018 4:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard factor funds slow to catch on
Replies: 58
Views: 6731

Re: Vanguard factor funds slow to catch on

Given the way these are constructed with positions all the way into the microcaps current shareholders would not want these funds to get too big correct? LIke maybe 1 billion in assets might be optimal but not 10 billion. I'm worried about this too; and since Vanguard model is based on ever-growing...
by jmk
Fri Jul 06, 2018 9:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics
Replies: 181
Views: 24315

Re: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics

It took a couple of days for the data to show up, but ETF.com now shows VFMF - $26.82 MM VFVA - $19.08 MM VFMO - $11.52 MM VFMV - $7.77 MM VFLQ - $7.73 MM VFQY - $7.71 MM 1) Does anyone know when there will be enough data to calculate the factor loadings of the Vanguard funds? 2) Will the large siz...
by jmk
Fri Jun 15, 2018 9:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which boglehead rule do you break--and are ok with
Replies: 152
Views: 12599

Which boglehead rule do you break--and are ok with

I'm a pretty strict boglehead. The one guide I don't do is a written out directive Investment Plan Statement. I have some guiding heuristics I stick to religiously (segregating buckets according to desired risk and timeline, rebalancing) but I personally have never felt the need to write out anythin...
by jmk
Sun Jun 10, 2018 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VMMXX (Vanguard Prime MM) risks
Replies: 71
Views: 9384

Re: VMMXX (Vanguard Prime MM) risks

VMMXX Prime Money Market is approximately 45% Foreign Bonds, so know what you're getting into. It's not a savings account and not FDIC insured. Treat it like a bond fund with International Bonds. If you're not comfortable buying Foreign Bond Funds why would you not care in a money market. True enou...
by jmk
Sat Jun 09, 2018 5:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard upgraded my accounts - angry [Brokerage Services]
Replies: 222
Views: 32630

Vanguard upgraded my accounts - quick and seamless [Brokerage Services]

I just upgraded my taxable mutual funds to VBS using the "upgrade" button and thought I'd report. I left my inherited IRA and rollover IRAs as they were. Transition was about five buttons. Everything carried over seamlessly without needing more work from me: bank linkages, capital gains/dividend des...
by jmk
Thu Jun 07, 2018 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard upgraded my accounts - angry [Brokerage Services]
Replies: 222
Views: 32630

Re: Vanguard upgraded my accounts - angry [Brokerage Services]

Can someone who's upgraded confirm that I will still have the "exchange" option for my mutual funds within the upgraded brokerage account, not just "buy/sell" like ETFs? Within Vanguard mutual funds at least the answer is yes. Thanks, appreciated. That's the way my IRA brokerage works. To purchase ...
by jmk
Thu Jun 07, 2018 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard upgraded my accounts - angry [Brokerage Services]
Replies: 222
Views: 32630

Re: Vanguard upgraded my accounts - angry [Brokerage Services]

I currently have a brokerage account in my IRA and am thinking of upgrading my Taxable account in order to buy CDs. As seen below, my IRA brokerage account has the option to "exchange" within mutual funds within the brokerage account. Can someone who's upgraded confirm that I will still have the "ex...
by jmk
Wed Jun 06, 2018 10:53 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rollover to Vanguard requires brokerage account?
Replies: 24
Views: 2329

Re: Rollover to Vanguard requires brokerage account?

What exactly does SIPC insurance cover? If it's like FDIC insurance for the banks, it insures our funds should the bank default and close its doors. If there is fraud involved with our accounts, I was told that the bank (in this case B of A) would cover the fraud even if were a million dollars. I w...
by jmk
Sat Jun 02, 2018 3:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why VSCX such higher yield? [Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond Index]
Replies: 2
Views: 566

Why VSCX such higher yield? [Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond Index]

For awhile I've been wondering why vanguard short-term corporate fund is relatively higher for its duration compared to other short duration options. As a corporate fund it contains risks not found in CDs obviously-- but to that extent? At the intermediate duration there is not nearly as much differ...
by jmk
Fri Jun 01, 2018 1:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best comprehensive Larry Swedroe book?
Replies: 23
Views: 1520

Re: Best comprehensive Larry Swedroe book?

I like Only Guide to Financial Plan because he outlines when you’d want more or less of barious options. Like tiliting value if your employment is correlated with growth company etc.
by jmk
Wed May 30, 2018 11:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is FBAR filing complicated?
Replies: 23
Views: 1828

Re: Is FBAR filing complicated?

It's extremely easy if it's a simple account and not huge sums. Extremely. You fill in one small section on a pdf of about six lines and send it in using their link. The most difficult part is converting the foreign currency to USD using the official exchange rate on 12/31; IRS has a web page with t...
by jmk
Wed May 16, 2018 12:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New motorcycle rider
Replies: 106
Views: 5472

Re: New motorcycle rider

-always wear full gear (including back armor) even when going to corner store
-take a motorcycle safety class
by jmk
Sat Apr 14, 2018 7:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What advantages do a personalized portfolio have over a target date fund, in your opinion?
Replies: 50
Views: 3979

Re: What advantages do a personalized portfolio have over a target date fund, in your opinion?

The biggest advantage of separate funds for me is tax efficiency. I'm in the 15% bracket so shoving my entire bond and CD portion into my tax-deferred I get more return, and my stock in taxable is at 0% capital gains. The same AA in target funds would generate more taxes. I do use Life Strategy fund...
by jmk
Sat Mar 10, 2018 4:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using a 5y moving average to smooth withdrawals in VPW?
Replies: 70
Views: 6540

Re: Using a 5y moving average to smooth withdrawals in VPW?

VPW, by only considering the current state of the portfolio, not taking into account the withdrawal history, is able to adapt to the current situation, regardless of what it happens to be. Right. One way of thinking about VPW is that the PMT formula at its basis "smooths" out the future expected re...
by jmk
Mon Feb 19, 2018 9:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sequence of returns risk while accumulating
Replies: 65
Views: 4732

Re: Sequence of returns risk while accumulating

Thanks for posting that. I often wonder why people think the sequence of returns does not matter during accumulation. It is the same math with a different sign on the withdrawals. Note there is a planning difference that you get to see the outcome before you do something rash like retiring, while i...
by jmk
Sat Feb 17, 2018 8:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best plants to grow to save money for food costs
Replies: 93
Views: 6101

Re: Best plants to grow to save money for food costs

Chiltepins.
Curry Leaves.
by jmk
Sat Feb 17, 2018 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe's portfolio: does the fact that SC are expensive cause a problem?
Replies: 37
Views: 3794

Re: Larry Swedroe's portfolio: does the fact that SC are expensive cause a problem?

The underlying point LP is to use higher expected return funds in order to increase safe portion to control tail risk. So if sc doesn’t suit you you could use more emerging or a smart beta fund.
by jmk
Fri Feb 16, 2018 10:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quick question how to use cape10 to estimate returns
Replies: 9
Views: 723

Re: Quick question how to use cape10 to estimate returns

willthrill81 wrote:
Thu Feb 15, 2018 5:29 pm
quote
That quotation from philosophicaleconomics is spot on. To put it another way, the error band around the prediction is so great that 10% here or there is really a false confidence.
by jmk
Thu Feb 15, 2018 4:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quick question how to use cape10 to estimate returns
Replies: 9
Views: 723

Re: Quick question how to use cape10 to estimate returns

I'm talking about using Cape10 for a long-term (15-20y) forecast of expected returns.
by jmk
Tue Feb 13, 2018 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Did you learn anything from the market correction?
Replies: 160
Views: 13367

Re: Did you learn anything from the market correction?

Although I've had assets since 2000, this is the first correction I've been through where I've had very large amounts at stake, $ amounts larger than salaries. Though I had mentally prepared for a correction (even having a separate tab on my spreadsheet for 20% crash), it was different in real time....
by jmk
Fri Feb 09, 2018 6:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Confused about tIRA deduction limits for MFJ
Replies: 6
Views: 681

Re: Confused about tIRA deduction limits for MFJ

Since you both have retirement plans I don't see how you could get a different number for each person. You might want to check out this calculator also https://www.schwab.com/public/schwab/investing/retirement_and_planning/understanding_iras/ira_calculators/roth_vs_traditional It seemed to give the...
by jmk
Thu Feb 08, 2018 5:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why not CDs instead of Short Term Bonds or TIPS
Replies: 25
Views: 6553

Re: Why not CDs instead of Short Term Bonds or TIPS

A quick note on this topic: I discovered one disadvantage of CDs today for safe portion of retirement. For tax purposes I'm needing to recharacterize my Roth bank CD to Traditional IRAs, and am going to have to pay not only the early-withdrawal penalty but also accept a lower interest rate on the re...
by jmk
Wed Feb 07, 2018 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIAA Traditional
Replies: 8
Views: 631

Re: TIAA Traditional

Do you keep a spreadsheet of all your retirement assets? Then you could lump all your "safe" assets and "risky" assets to ensure your overall AA was maintained. You would put all your 403b, IRAs, and taxable monies devoted to retirement into the spreadsheet. If you want 60/40 overall, then the Bond ...
by jmk
Wed Feb 07, 2018 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIAA Traditional
Replies: 8
Views: 631

Re: TIAA Traditional

TIAA Traditional is a fine addition since it is "stable value"-- different from bonds and CDs but also "safe". I wish I had access to more of it. :) However if you are pleased with your existing Asset Allocation may I suggest you make sure all your funds taken together maintain a suitable AA. If you...
by jmk
Sun Feb 04, 2018 9:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Confused about tIRA deduction limits for MFJ
Replies: 6
Views: 681

Re: Confused about tIRA deduction limits for MFJ

Since you both have retirement plans I don't see how you could get a different number for each person. You might want to check out this calculator also https://www.schwab.com/public/schwab/investing/retirement_and_planning/understanding_iras/ira_calculators/roth_vs_traditional It seemed to give the...
by jmk
Sat Feb 03, 2018 7:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Confused about tIRA deduction limits for MFJ
Replies: 6
Views: 681

Re: Confused about tIRA deduction limits for MFJ

Is one of you NOT a participant in a workplace retirement plan for 2017? Any spouse who is NOT a participant can deduct their full contribution. Whether any spouse deducts their contribution or not does NOT change MAGI for purposes of the deduction. My apologies for forgetting to mention that both ...
by jmk
Sat Feb 03, 2018 5:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond Market Index Fund vs. CDs?
Replies: 33
Views: 7274

Re: Total Bond Market Index Fund vs. CDs?

For long term money it probably won't matter much. But for me it comes down to: TBM has volatility but is easily accessible. But be ready for it to drop if you access it sooner than the fund's duration: the TBM I bought in June 2016 has earned about 0% two years later (there was a 4.5% drop in 2016 ...
by jmk
Sat Feb 03, 2018 5:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Confused about tIRA deduction limits for MFJ
Replies: 6
Views: 681

Confused about tIRA deduction limits for MFJ

I'm confused how the MAGI traditional IRA limits work for married jointly couples, both with work plans. I want to make sure I'm doing this year's taxes correctly. I'm recharacterizing some of our 2017 Roth. Our MAGI this year was $103,491 so we can't deduct the whole amount. Do we figure the deduct...
by jmk
Tue Jan 30, 2018 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Better use taxable than horrible 403b?
Replies: 6
Views: 809

Re: Better use taxable than horrible 403b?

The best calculator I know for figuring it out is the tab "401k vs Taxable" on this downloadable spreadsheet from another forum: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B45krBaG0b6KTWZDeXEySVBHVXc/view?usp=sharing/ You'll need to enter years before rolling over, expected returns in each asset class, extra ...