Search found 369 matches

by jmk
Wed Nov 14, 2018 6:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Time Value of Money vs. Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 64
Views: 3010

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

Then let's continue the discussion in that vein. Why could a TVM (i.e. annuitization) approach work or not work to model a full retirement plan? Given that it's a generalized form of the VPW approach, I see no reason why not beyond the aforementioned 'hands on' aspect, which is frankly a feature mo...
by jmk
Sun Nov 11, 2018 2:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's Your Fixed Income Strategy?
Replies: 89
Views: 8617

Re: What's Your Fixed Income Strategy?

Years to retirement or already in retirement?(how many years in?) Hope to retire early in 2 years, age 57. Fixed income allocation as part of total allocation (Equity/Fixed Income) 50% of long term bucket. 30% of short term bucket. But... worried about sequence of returns risk to retire. If market ...
by jmk
Thu Nov 08, 2018 8:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 785
Views: 260214

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

Ok Legit source, but I find it interesting that they're expecting such a massive increase in the number of people that will reach/exceed age 100, vs. what we have actually seen so far. The article I linked discussed the fact that what we've seen so far, didn't come close to what we expected. With r...
by jmk
Mon Nov 05, 2018 11:37 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 785
Views: 260214

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

Looking at longevityillustrator for instance, I see that there is a 50% chance at 55 that either my wife and I will live to 100. So if I were to retire today this would be a reasonable number to use in the vpw equations for my first years of withdrawals. (100-55=45). I'd find another actuarial webs...
by jmk
Mon Nov 05, 2018 12:00 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 785
Views: 260214

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

What are the negatives to adapting VPW by using a dynamic lifespan in the pmt equation rather than a fixed figure? I'm thinking of (a) the odds of living longer and longer extend out as one actually gets older, (b) it matters more to "get it right" as one approaches higher probabilities of the end. ...
by jmk
Sat Nov 03, 2018 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FRED inflation--breakeven vs forward expectation estimate?
Replies: 5
Views: 389

FRED inflation--breakeven vs forward expectation estimate?

The FRED has figures for "breakeven" 5, 10, 20, 30 year inflation rates, based on the difference between inflation adjusted and nominal treasuries. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/categories/33446 The 5 year "breakeven" inflation is currently 1.88%. The breakeven inflation rate represents a measure of e...
by jmk
Sun Oct 28, 2018 2:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond Market Fund - interest rates rising!
Replies: 147
Views: 16566

Re: Total Bond Market Fund - interest rates rising!

Kevin, those threads about two times duration to earn the initial yield in times of rising rates would be an interesting read and would also be something more people should understand. Can you provide the links? Advocates for 2 x duration minus 1: https://www.etf.com/sections/etf-strategist-corner/...
by jmk
Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:28 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (repost)
Replies: 86
Views: 10910

Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (repost)

That must be it. My wife’s birthday is late in December. Mine is early February but not first couple days.

It sounds like your spreadsheet should assume 62+1 month for 93% of cases. :)

Btw thank you for sharing this spreadsheet.
by jmk
Fri Oct 19, 2018 12:44 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (repost)
Replies: 86
Views: 10910

Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (repost)

When I compare this spreadsheet to the Anypia, the two agree for age 67 and age 70. But not early age 62+1 month. Weird how only different in that one scenario. Any ideas? For both me and my wife, top line is Anypia with "none" for CPI increase and "none" for Avg Wage increase, bottom line is neuros...
by jmk
Sat Sep 29, 2018 8:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (repost)
Replies: 86
Views: 10910

Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (repost)

The interesting thing is if I leave things at "0" in both your calculator and Anypia, the results are identical for retiring at age 67. But your results are lower for age 62 and higher for 70. Yet Anypia produces the same results for ages 62, 67, 70, unless I'm doing something wrong in entry. For i...
by jmk
Sat Sep 29, 2018 6:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (repost)
Replies: 86
Views: 10910

Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (repost)

My calculator is defaulted to "zero" for both future CPI increase and future wage growth. These are the defaults used in all the SS calculators online and the mailed benefit statements/estimates. But anypia allows you to set your own defaults. In your screenshot, you see you can choose any of the 3...
by jmk
Sat Sep 29, 2018 12:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (repost)
Replies: 86
Views: 10910

Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (repost)

I'm getting vastly different results from neurosphere's spreadsheet than ANYPIA. My calculator is defaulted to "zero" for both future CPI increase and future wage growth. These are the defaults used in all the SS calculators online and the mailed benefit statements/estimates. But anypia allows you ...
by jmk
Sat Sep 29, 2018 9:29 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (repost)
Replies: 86
Views: 10910

Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (repost)

I'm getting vastly different results from neurosphere's spreadsheet than ANYPIA. Neurosphere is about 27% lower. With ANYPIA I use the most pessimistic assumptions option from the 2018 Trustee Report (alternative III) for both benefit increase and average wage increase. https://i.imgur.com/8rOSYky.p...
by jmk
Sun Sep 23, 2018 12:25 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Minimalist Lifestyle
Replies: 92
Views: 11673

Re: Minimalist Lifestyle

My version of minimalism is more mild: don't buy anything to youthat doesn't add real "value" to your life. So if you can keep your tortillas warm with two places don't buy a special tortilla holder. If you have one good knife that does 80% of everything you don't buy twelves knives. Etc.
by jmk
Thu Sep 13, 2018 10:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today
Replies: 480
Views: 72506

Re: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today

I checked and saw that the top rate now is 2.90%. Which comes to about a 2.85% APY (if you store coupon payments in Prime Money market), higher than the current 2y bank CDs by about 0.1%. Actually, assuming semi-annual coupons are reinvested at the current Prime MM yield of 2.09%, I come up with an...
by jmk
Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today
Replies: 480
Views: 72506

Re: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today

Kevin M wrote:
Wed Sep 12, 2018 8:04 pm
I checked and saw that the top rate now is 2.90%.
Which comes to about a 2.85% APY (if you store coupon payments in Prime Money market), higher than the current 2y bank CDs by about 0.1%.
by jmk
Mon Sep 10, 2018 8:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3 fund portfolio with Money Market instead of Bonds
Replies: 26
Views: 2896

Re: 3 fund portfolio with Money Market instead of Bonds

Portfolio 1, blue, 100% "US Stock Market" Portfolio 2, red, 60% "US Stock Market," 40% "Intermediate-term Treasuries" In portfolio 2 we replaced 40% of the portfolio with a less volatile asset. What happened? Source https://imgur.com/h7Y58ro.png The standard deviation was reduced from 15.32% to 9.6...
by jmk
Mon Sep 10, 2018 7:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical SWR vs. Monte Carlo on PortfolioVisualizer.com
Replies: 69
Views: 5775

Re: Historical SWR vs. Monte Carlo on PortfolioVisualizer.com

R2D2's analysis is purely mathematical and not historical. It produces a well known and documented problem in that it does not incorporate mean reversion, which can make a very big difference in the outcome. You can set Portfolio Visualizer to use blocks of n years in doing the bootstrapping. This ...
by jmk
Sun Sep 09, 2018 2:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Non V Alternative funds through VBS?
Replies: 3
Views: 364

Re: Non V Alternative funds through VBS?

Can anyone give me some guidance in finding alternative funds through Vanguard for purposes of factor diversification added to standard TSM 60/TBM 40? . . . Before adding expensive alternative funds which depend on manager skill/luck, you might want to consider diversifying through asset classes su...
by jmk
Sat Sep 08, 2018 6:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Non V Alternative funds through VBS?
Replies: 3
Views: 364

Non V Alternative funds through VBS?

Can anyone give me some guidance in finding alternative funds through Vanguard for purposes of factor diversification added to standard TSM 60/TBM 40 (with intl)? The 133 or so alternative class ETFs from other companies seem to involves Transaction fees (not be included in the NTF lineup). Filterin...
by jmk
Fri Sep 07, 2018 11:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical SWR vs. Monte Carlo on PortfolioVisualizer.com
Replies: 69
Views: 5775

Re: Historical SWR vs. Monte Carlo on PortfolioVisualizer.com

Now that I think about it, there really are three methodologies one could use: 1. Look at past history and keep everything "in order", 2. Use bootstrapping from historical returns (in other words, do Monte Carlo on historical returns and allow things to get out of order), and 3. Use Monte Carlo wit...
by jmk
Sat Aug 25, 2018 3:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: TIPS Versus Nominal Bonds
Replies: 46
Views: 4174

Re: Larry Swedroe: TIPS Versus Nominal Bonds

b. Why do CDs yield more than Treasuries? If the market is efficient and they are both basically riskless, why does one yield more than the other? Possible factors: While CDs have FDIC protection, they are still less safe than Treasuries. (FDIC might fail, there is a delay in getting money when ban...
by jmk
Sat Aug 25, 2018 3:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What non-Vanguard ETFs will you be looking to buy?
Replies: 62
Views: 6790

Re: What non-Vanguard ETFs will you be looking to buy?

Curious how any of the offered multifactor EFTs from other companies compare with VFMF?
by jmk
Tue Aug 14, 2018 7:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How can I use the Rising Equity Glide Path?
Replies: 61
Views: 4176

Re: How can I use the Rising Equity Glide Path?

Build up supply of bonds prior to retirement (thereby raising FI%); spend those bonds for expenses during early years of retirement (raising equity %).
by jmk
Mon Aug 13, 2018 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Bond fund returns=2 X duration minus 1"
Replies: 4
Views: 822

Re: "2 X duration minus 1"

The article that offers that rule of thumb, Corey Hoffstein, "How To Predict Bond ETF Returns": https://www.etf.com/sections/etf-strategist-corner/how-predict-bond-etf-returns?nopaging=1 To derive this rule, we make some simple assumptions. •We are investing in a bond fund that seeks to maintain a c...
by jmk
Sun Aug 12, 2018 7:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Bond fund returns=2 X duration minus 1"
Replies: 4
Views: 822

"Bond fund returns=2 X duration minus 1"

How accurate is the rule of thumb "it takes 2 times duration minus 1 to earn the current yield on a bond fund"? Or more accurately, “Current yield-to-worst of a bond fund/etf is a good predictor of annualized return over the next two times duration minus one years.” For instance, we'd expect 11.2 ye...
by jmk
Sat Aug 11, 2018 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [New Vanguard website layout starting Saturday, August 11]
Replies: 130
Views: 9912

Re: New layout of vanguard.com

You talking about within the Holdings tab? Yes, it's changed. The funds are in different order now with a different look and a new download button.
by jmk
Sun Jul 29, 2018 8:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lifestrategy moderate growth - 12% bracket ok?
Replies: 9
Views: 1164

Re: Lifestrategy moderate growth - 12% bracket ok?

I too started with only LSM and I too am in the 12% bracket. At this point I have most of my long term monies in tsm and tintl with my bond allocation mostly in my 401k and IRA CDs. However, I do still utilize Lifestrategy Moderate for my short-term bucket. LIke you, I had it before I really knew ab...
by jmk
Sat Jul 28, 2018 2:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Regret Public School?
Replies: 75
Views: 6118

Re: Regret Public School?

This question can't be answered generally. In my city, for instance, there are bad public schools and also great "magnet" public school, together with some pretty bad private schools and some good and bad charters. The best public and charter schools (both free to residents) are internationally rank...
by jmk
Thu Jul 26, 2018 4:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2-Year Treasury Note Auction
Replies: 102
Views: 9522

Re: 2-Year Treasury Note Auction

For instance, I see a 2y bank CD now that has an interest rate of 2.76% with an APY of 2.8%. The Vanguard secondary 2y CDs at 2.8% would be slightly better since they would be compared against 2.76. The 2y Vanguard CD would earn 2.8%+investment returns on investing that interest. The bank CD would ...
by jmk
Wed Jul 25, 2018 7:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2-Year Treasury Note Auction
Replies: 102
Views: 9522

Re: 2-Year Treasury Note Auction

Forum member #Cruncher recommends converting bond yield to APY if comparing to banking product APY, and APY of the 2-year note is 2.675%, which gives a TEY of 3.004%--even better. Does the standard apy formula apply with secondary cds since the interest gets siphoned off into the settlement account...
by jmk
Tue Jul 24, 2018 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2-Year Treasury Note Auction
Replies: 102
Views: 9522

Re: 2-Year Treasury Note Auction

Forum member #Cruncher recommends converting bond yield to APY if comparing to banking product APY, and APY of the 2-year note is 2.675%, which gives a TEY of 3.004%--even better. Does the standard apy formula apply with secondary cds since the interest gets siphoned off into the settlement account...
by jmk
Wed Jul 18, 2018 10:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Transfer CapOne360 to Vanguard, or easier to wait until it's E-Trade?
Replies: 22
Views: 3142

Re: Transfer CapOne360 to Vanguard, or easier to wait until it's E-Trade?

I'm in the middle of this process right now - opened a Schwab account and am transferring all my Capital One accounts there. Schwab is doing all the heavy lifting (I have not been contacted by Capital One). The only issue so far is that Schwab contacted me to say that one of the mutual funds (VOYA ...
by jmk
Sat Jul 07, 2018 4:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard factor funds slow to catch on
Replies: 78
Views: 9225

Re: Vanguard factor funds slow to catch on

Given the way these are constructed with positions all the way into the microcaps current shareholders would not want these funds to get too big correct? LIke maybe 1 billion in assets might be optimal but not 10 billion. I'm worried about this too; and since Vanguard model is based on ever-growing...
by jmk
Fri Jul 06, 2018 9:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics
Replies: 192
Views: 26656

Re: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics

It took a couple of days for the data to show up, but ETF.com now shows VFMF - $26.82 MM VFVA - $19.08 MM VFMO - $11.52 MM VFMV - $7.77 MM VFLQ - $7.73 MM VFQY - $7.71 MM 1) Does anyone know when there will be enough data to calculate the factor loadings of the Vanguard funds? 2) Will the large siz...
by jmk
Fri Jun 15, 2018 9:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which boglehead rule do you break--and are ok with
Replies: 152
Views: 12965

Which boglehead rule do you break--and are ok with

I'm a pretty strict boglehead. The one guide I don't do is a written out directive Investment Plan Statement. I have some guiding heuristics I stick to religiously (segregating buckets according to desired risk and timeline, rebalancing) but I personally have never felt the need to write out anythin...
by jmk
Sun Jun 10, 2018 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VMMXX (Vanguard Prime MM) risks
Replies: 71
Views: 11538

Re: VMMXX (Vanguard Prime MM) risks

VMMXX Prime Money Market is approximately 45% Foreign Bonds, so know what you're getting into. It's not a savings account and not FDIC insured. Treat it like a bond fund with International Bonds. If you're not comfortable buying Foreign Bond Funds why would you not care in a money market. True enou...
by jmk
Sat Jun 09, 2018 5:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard upgraded my accounts - angry [Brokerage Services]
Replies: 222
Views: 33394

Vanguard upgraded my accounts - quick and seamless [Brokerage Services]

I just upgraded my taxable mutual funds to VBS using the "upgrade" button and thought I'd report. I left my inherited IRA and rollover IRAs as they were. Transition was about five buttons. Everything carried over seamlessly without needing more work from me: bank linkages, capital gains/dividend des...
by jmk
Thu Jun 07, 2018 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard upgraded my accounts - angry [Brokerage Services]
Replies: 222
Views: 33394

Re: Vanguard upgraded my accounts - angry [Brokerage Services]

Can someone who's upgraded confirm that I will still have the "exchange" option for my mutual funds within the upgraded brokerage account, not just "buy/sell" like ETFs? Within Vanguard mutual funds at least the answer is yes. Thanks, appreciated. That's the way my IRA brokerage works. To purchase ...
by jmk
Thu Jun 07, 2018 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard upgraded my accounts - angry [Brokerage Services]
Replies: 222
Views: 33394

Re: Vanguard upgraded my accounts - angry [Brokerage Services]

I currently have a brokerage account in my IRA and am thinking of upgrading my Taxable account in order to buy CDs. As seen below, my IRA brokerage account has the option to "exchange" within mutual funds within the brokerage account. Can someone who's upgraded confirm that I will still have the "ex...
by jmk
Wed Jun 06, 2018 10:53 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rollover to Vanguard requires brokerage account?
Replies: 24
Views: 2472

Re: Rollover to Vanguard requires brokerage account?

What exactly does SIPC insurance cover? If it's like FDIC insurance for the banks, it insures our funds should the bank default and close its doors. If there is fraud involved with our accounts, I was told that the bank (in this case B of A) would cover the fraud even if were a million dollars. I w...
by jmk
Sat Jun 02, 2018 3:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why VSCX such higher yield? [Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond Index]
Replies: 2
Views: 595

Why VSCX such higher yield? [Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond Index]

For awhile I've been wondering why vanguard short-term corporate fund is relatively higher for its duration compared to other short duration options. As a corporate fund it contains risks not found in CDs obviously-- but to that extent? At the intermediate duration there is not nearly as much differ...
by jmk
Fri Jun 01, 2018 1:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best comprehensive Larry Swedroe book?
Replies: 23
Views: 1606

Re: Best comprehensive Larry Swedroe book?

I like Only Guide to Financial Plan because he outlines when you’d want more or less of barious options. Like tiliting value if your employment is correlated with growth company etc.
by jmk
Wed May 30, 2018 11:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is FBAR filing complicated?
Replies: 23
Views: 1884

Re: Is FBAR filing complicated?

It's extremely easy if it's a simple account and not huge sums. Extremely. You fill in one small section on a pdf of about six lines and send it in using their link. The most difficult part is converting the foreign currency to USD using the official exchange rate on 12/31; IRS has a web page with t...
by jmk
Wed May 16, 2018 12:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New motorcycle rider
Replies: 106
Views: 5746

Re: New motorcycle rider

-always wear full gear (including back armor) even when going to corner store
-take a motorcycle safety class
by jmk
Sat Apr 14, 2018 7:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What advantages do a personalized portfolio have over a target date fund, in your opinion?
Replies: 50
Views: 4249

Re: What advantages do a personalized portfolio have over a target date fund, in your opinion?

The biggest advantage of separate funds for me is tax efficiency. I'm in the 15% bracket so shoving my entire bond and CD portion into my tax-deferred I get more return, and my stock in taxable is at 0% capital gains. The same AA in target funds would generate more taxes. I do use Life Strategy fund...
by jmk
Sat Mar 10, 2018 4:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using a 5y moving average to smooth withdrawals in VPW?
Replies: 70
Views: 6912

Re: Using a 5y moving average to smooth withdrawals in VPW?

VPW, by only considering the current state of the portfolio, not taking into account the withdrawal history, is able to adapt to the current situation, regardless of what it happens to be. Right. One way of thinking about VPW is that the PMT formula at its basis "smooths" out the future expected re...
by jmk
Mon Feb 19, 2018 9:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sequence of returns risk while accumulating
Replies: 65
Views: 4995

Re: Sequence of returns risk while accumulating

Thanks for posting that. I often wonder why people think the sequence of returns does not matter during accumulation. It is the same math with a different sign on the withdrawals. Note there is a planning difference that you get to see the outcome before you do something rash like retiring, while i...