Search found 480 matches

by jmk
Wed Aug 14, 2019 2:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Domestic returns next 10 years
Replies: 45
Views: 2937

Re: Domestic returns next 10 years

Alot of articles are stating that real returns for the next 10 years may be around 1% which is lower than average. Do you agree with this? If so what would a balanced portfolio return? And is anyone increasing their savings rate because of this? Also does this change your calculated rate of return ...
by jmk
Wed Aug 14, 2019 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has anybody bought Wellington,Wellesley,LifeStra and just said the heck with the taxes or is that just dumb in taxable?
Replies: 48
Views: 2997

Re: Has anybody bought Wellington,Wellesley,LifeStra and just said the heck with the taxes or is that just dumb in taxa

I use Lifestrategy as part of my bucket of taxable monies to be kept for "short term" (next 7 year) expenses, a sort of glorified emergency fund. I like it because it has a clean asset allocation and is spread across international stocks and bonds. (The latter is important to me since there can be c...
by jmk
Tue Aug 13, 2019 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Excel formula for value of EE bond?
Replies: 7
Views: 672

Re: Excel formula for value of EE bond?

But if you're planning on holding till they double in 20 years, you might just want to alternatively use 3.43% and do a standard "=pv" excel calculation. I think it comes to more like 3.53%. But what I think might be more interesting and useful, would be a spreadsheet with the actual current value ...
by jmk
Mon Aug 12, 2019 1:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Critique my exercise routine because it's not working for me
Replies: 160
Views: 8702

Re: Critique my exercise routine because it's not working for me

Have you considered other dietary changes such as: few to no processed carbs (i.e. things made from flour); eat only "whole kernel grains" like barley and at that 100 carbs a day? Plenty of fiber? Few dried fruits or fruit juices. I personally found without these additional steps weight loss didn't ...
by jmk
Mon Aug 12, 2019 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The fallacy of Dollar Cost Averaging
Replies: 101
Views: 8389

Re: The fallacy of Dollar Cost Averaging

I've never heard someone say Dollar Cost Averaging had higher expected returns. That would not have been something you heard here. Most of the time the market is going up, so historically the sooner you get the money in, the more it will make... but sometimes it doesn't work that way and you have t...
by jmk
Mon Aug 12, 2019 12:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: First time selling out of taxable account
Replies: 12
Views: 2055

Re: First time selling out of taxable account

I am about to sell $10k of shares for some house repairs. I just want to make sure my thinking is correct. I have the fund under SpecID. I "think" I should be selling the ones with the least amount of gains to minimize the tax. These are all long term and all are in the positive. Anything that I am...
by jmk
Mon Aug 12, 2019 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Excel formula for value of EE bond?
Replies: 7
Views: 672

Re: Excel formula for value of EE bond?

Is there a formula I can use in Excel (or, more accurately, Libreoffice Calc) so that I can get the current value of each of these bonds? if you want the actual sell value at a moment, the above works. But if you're planning on holding till they double in 20 years, you might just want to alternativ...
by jmk
Sat Aug 03, 2019 6:38 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why is the calculation of a SWR based on a portfolio's starting value instead of if times were bad?
Replies: 17
Views: 1202

Re: Why is the calculation of a SWR based on a portfolio's starting value instead of if times were bad?

I think you are misunderstanding the concept of SWR Mullins. It's defined as the constant value that given a series of returns--including a max and min--will use up the portfolio. So any given SWR already incorporates the lowest drawdown in the series. When people use a SWR for future withdrawals it...
by jmk
Thu Aug 01, 2019 1:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A note on spending for kids
Replies: 148
Views: 10682

Re: A note on spending for kids

Those other activities like clubs and music are valuable for self-esteem and later success. However, you don't have to spend a lot of money to get them if you are flexible. E.g. free local sports leagues or school teams, community orchestras, etc. Hard to argue that it is a good bet to make a financ...
by jmk
Thu Aug 01, 2019 5:19 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Day care vs nanny for child care
Replies: 62
Views: 3336

Re: Day care vs nanny for childcare

A child is better off in a good day care where he/she can develop social skills while interacting with other babies.
by jmk
Sat Jul 27, 2019 10:16 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Retire with Less Than $1 million?
Replies: 85
Views: 16270

Re: Retire with Less Than $1 million?

I see a lot of big numbers on this site. I'm wondering -- is anyone expecting to retire with *less* than one million dollars? Is it doable? I expect to have somewhere between 650K-800K when I retire. My expenses are about $33,000 per year with ten years to go. House will be paid off. No other debt....
by jmk
Fri Jul 26, 2019 8:52 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Single best piece of personal finance advice ever received?
Replies: 93
Views: 12590

Re: Single best piece of personal finance advice ever received?

“In a bull market, everyone’s an expert.”
by jmk
Tue Jul 23, 2019 8:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to calculate annual standard deviation from monthly returns
Replies: 52
Views: 20275

Re: How to calculate annual standard deviation from monthly returns

Just a quick aside that there does seem to be a difference between results of Tobin's formula and the sd of monthly times sqrt(12). When I ran VFINX 1977-2018 in portfolio illustrator (which uses monthly data) it gave the monthly sd as 4.25% and the yearly (annualized) sd as 14.72%, which is 4.25 * ...
by jmk
Mon Jul 22, 2019 8:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VFMF (Vanguard Multifactor) == Closet Value Index Fund
Replies: 70
Views: 6700

Re: VFMF (Vanguard Multifactor) == Closet Value Index Fund

It's important to distinguish between unadjusted R^2 (which will ALWAYS go up with the addition of more independent variables) and adjusted R^2 (which will increase only so long as the added variable adds enough explanatory power to compensate for the smaller number of degrees of freedom). What doe...
by jmk
Sun Jul 21, 2019 12:23 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to Safely Share User IDs / Passwords with Spouse
Replies: 79
Views: 6155

Re: How to Safely Share User IDs / Passwords with Spouse

With that said, one thing I struggle with is how to easily share all of our (ever changing) user IDs and passwords for our financial accounts. I want her to have access to this important, yet extremely sensitive information in case something happens to me, or less morbidly, what if she needs to loo...
by jmk
Sun Jul 21, 2019 12:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do people in HCOL areas have a higher net worth and more wealth building potential than LCOL?
Replies: 222
Views: 14712

Re: Do people in HCOL areas have a higher net worth and more wealth building potential than LCOL?

Obviously HCOL areas provide higher incomes, but do they also provide higher net worths and more wealth building potential or is it essentially equal to LCOL areas in terms of net worth and wealth building due to the lower expenses in LCOL areas? I live in a LCOL area, and the folks who retire here...
by jmk
Fri Jul 19, 2019 6:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Wiki - How to campaign for a better 403(b) plan
Replies: 14
Views: 846

Re: Wiki - How to campaign for a better 403(b) plan

LadyGeek wrote:
Tue Jul 16, 2019 6:29 pm
Does anyone have comments on the draft page?

If not, I'll assume the content is OK and move this to the "live" wiki.
Not all 403b plans apply to a school district, it could be any non-profit. So the wording should be generalized (e.g. no "your district").
by jmk
Tue Jul 16, 2019 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to generate normal random correlated variables in excel?
Replies: 8
Views: 541

Re: How to generate normal random correlated variables in excel?

If Z1 and Z2 are each independent standard normal random variables, i.e., each is NORMINV(RAND(),0,1), then to get X and Y with correlation rho, use X = MeanX + StDevX*Z1 Y = MeanY + StDevY*(Z1*rho + Z2*(1-rho^2)^0.5) This seems to work Capricorn and JSPrag!!! How did you both derive the equations?...
by jmk
Mon Jul 15, 2019 12:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to generate normal random correlated variables in excel?
Replies: 8
Views: 541

How to generate normal random correlated variables in excel?

I'm trying to simulate normal distribution returns for two assets with given means, sds and correlation. I know the variances and the covariance between them. Generating normal random numbers is easy in excel, with the Norm.inv(rand(),mean,sd) formula, and if there is no correlation between the two,...
by jmk
Fri Jul 12, 2019 7:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Americans believe they need $1.7 million, on average, to retire
Replies: 284
Views: 28454

Re: Americans believe they need $1.7 million, on average, to retire

For me: $1.2 million to retire at 57 with wife working another 5 years after that and including $12.8k pension at 62. What's the magic number for retirement savings? $1.7 million, according to a survey from Charles Schwab. How many of here are retired, or thinking of retiring, near this #? Assuming ...
by jmk
Fri Jul 12, 2019 7:21 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Sandals with arch support
Replies: 30
Views: 2610

Re: Sandals with arch support

I find Ecco sandals have great arch support.
by jmk
Sat Jul 06, 2019 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Misbehaviour of markets and the Black Swan
Replies: 87
Views: 8018

Re: Misbehaviour of markets and the Black Swan

Get out to a year and they are reasonably close to being log normally distributed. And no one should be equity investor if horizon is very short like days, weeks or even months. Good example, 2008 was worst crisis in post WW 11 era and it was well within the bottom 5% of the Monte Carlo Simulations...
by jmk
Sat Jul 06, 2019 11:56 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Alternatives to CD laddering as rates decrease
Replies: 22
Views: 2834

Re: Alternatives to CD laddering as rates decrease

There's ladders and there's ladders. The answer depends on (a) what role your CDs serve, (b) the nature your liabilities at time t. On the one hand, if you're using your CD ladder to match your yearly core expenses in t years, you wouldn't have much flexibility and would simply find the highest rate...
by jmk
Fri Jul 05, 2019 5:33 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Monte Carlo Simulation
Replies: 47
Views: 4206

Re: Monte Carlo Simulation

Thanks for all these responses. One question I would have is what would be an appropriate bootstrap model for the simulation. Would it be worst first year, or worst five year, or what? For my Situation it makes a tremendous difference. What is a reasonable expectation or is there such a thing? You'...
by jmk
Thu Jul 04, 2019 10:07 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Why does my credit union inundate me with offers of life insurance?
Replies: 18
Views: 2593

Re: Why does my credit union inundate me with offers of life insurance?

I agree with folks' feelings about "spam marketing". But is it foolish to accept the small free offers of life insurance that each credit union seems to offer?
by jmk
Fri Jun 21, 2019 11:47 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Are you a member of nextdoor.com? Any concerns registering your info?
Replies: 71
Views: 6176

Re: Are you a member of nextdoor.com? Any concerns registering your info?

In our area, they used what appeared to me to be a dishonest recruiting approach, sending an email purporting to be from a “neighbor.” I’m not aware that anyone knew the so-called neighbor. HOA sent out a mass emailing warning everyone that Nextdoor has no affiliation with the HOA. I had same react...
by jmk
Wed Jun 19, 2019 9:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Karsten (Early Retirement Now) Pens a Challenge to Merriman and the Small/Value Premium
Replies: 68
Views: 6410

Re: Karsten (Early Retirement Now) Pens a Challenge to Merriman and the Small/Value Premium

Most here are talking about factors as a way to get higher returns, but I don't think enough are thinking of factors in terms of risk diversification. If it's true that adding in factors adds explanatory power over beta alone (which it does), then those elements add in a nuance to the return story. ...
by jmk
Sat Jun 15, 2019 12:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Monte Carlo Simulation
Replies: 47
Views: 4206

Re: Monte Carlo Simulation

It's easy to attack monte carlo if one assumes it means more than it does. I don't know many people who use any monte carlo simulation as a hard fact of probability of success. All monte carlo and other simulations are meant to do is explore the implications of certain assumptions. One data point am...
by jmk
Wed Jun 12, 2019 7:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Downsides of VPW?
Replies: 101
Views: 7404

Re: Downsides of VPW?

As I see it VPW and other PMT() based schemes have two main downsides: First VPW is blind to risk aversion. Most people care more about a consumption decline of 50% than a consumption increase of 50%. To guard against a drastic consumption decline I suspect you should use a lower assumed rate of re...
by jmk
Sun Jun 09, 2019 8:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AA : willingness, ability, need
Replies: 24
Views: 1954

Re: AA : willingness, ability, need

How do you all think about this? Any suggestions? You might consider estimating your "funded ratio"by comparing the net present value of your guaranteed income stream and core liability stream year by year from now till you die. Aim to have enough kept safe to bring your funded ratio to 1.2 (in cas...
by jmk
Sun Jun 09, 2019 3:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Downsides of VPW?
Replies: 101
Views: 7404

Re: Downsides of VPW?

While being very efficient, the vpw method tends to take out the most $ exponentially toward end of life, when you value the money least. My understanding is that this is incorrect. It's designed to take out approximately the same amount of inflation-adjusted dollars from start to finish. Longinves...
by jmk
Sun Jun 09, 2019 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The logical fallacy behind "Bonds Are For Safety"
Replies: 248
Views: 16604

Re: The logical fallacy behind "Bonds Are For Safety"

You are not correct: there is no "fallacy of composition" in saying "Bonds are for Safety". That's not my saying: I've lost track of how many times I've seen that exact phrase here, but Google tells me it's over 500 . Whomever says it, and even if true, it is not the fallacy of composition. A bond ...
by jmk
Fri Jun 07, 2019 12:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The logical fallacy behind "Bonds Are For Safety"
Replies: 248
Views: 16604

Re: The logical fallacy behind "Bonds Are For Safety"

You are not correct: there is no "fallacy of composition" in saying "Bonds are for Safety". Of course there are different conceptions of what the term safety means (volatility, versus ability to not run out of money, etc). (Your fallacy is using a vague word "safety" instead of a precise financial t...
by jmk
Wed Jun 05, 2019 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Downsides of VPW?
Replies: 101
Views: 7404

Re: Downsides of VPW?

While being very efficient, the vpw method tends to take out the most $ exponentially toward end of life, when you value the money least.
by jmk
Tue Jun 04, 2019 4:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Maxifi planner
Replies: 52
Views: 9643

Re: Maxifi planner

here is one specific thing I learned while using MaxiFi: the Social Security wage base, PIA bend points, and index ratios are indexed to national wages rather than CPI. This may be common knowledge, but I had never given it much thought because the MySSA website does not project any changes to thes...
by jmk
Sun May 26, 2019 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Flexible Retirement Planner
Replies: 44
Views: 7055

Re: The Flexible Retirement Planner

It seems that the Monte Carlo analysis used in the software does not incorporate mean reversion; few MC tools do. One that does is portfolio visualizer. You can have the bootstrap pick a sample of n year units (rather than each year being its own independent sample), thereby modeling rtm to varying...
by jmk
Sun May 26, 2019 1:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to calculate exactly how much money you'll have by retirement?
Replies: 75
Views: 8051

Re: How to calculate exactly how much money you'll have by retirement?

Of course it's easy to think one has confidence one doesn't. But as an exercise... Vanguard Target year 2060 has the following components for the next 15 years (after which it starts to decrease stock %): 54.1% TSM, 35.8% TIntil, 7.3% TBM, 2.8% TIB. This is ~90% equity and 10% bonds. With a 1.9% exp...
by jmk
Thu May 23, 2019 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to "lie" with Personal Finance
Replies: 28
Views: 5255

Re: How to "lie" with Personal Finance

I don't like calling these fallacies "lies", but my own peeve in this arena is: Using your expected longevity to determine plan length. The expected longevity is just an average, so many of us (being conservative in terms of running out of money) would want to go out to something like the 25th perce...
by jmk
Sun May 19, 2019 3:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: SS taxes
Replies: 28
Views: 4476

Re: SS taxes

Pensions considered in the taxing of SS income. Yes. Any income that appears in your AGI (and some income that doesn't, such as tax-exempt interest) participates in determining how much of your SS benefit is taxable. Does i-bond interest excluded because of educational use count in your (M)AGI for ...
by jmk
Sun May 19, 2019 2:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Flexible Retirement Planner
Replies: 44
Views: 7055

Re: The Flexible Retirement Planner

I like it a lot. Best feature is the sensitivity analysis. I like how easy it is to check scenarios (as simple as checking or unchecking a box.) Biggest problems are (1) only normal distribution for monte carlo, (2) limited number of withdrawal strategies, (3) cruder tax modeling than other calculat...
by jmk
Sun May 19, 2019 2:54 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Online Retirement Planner Tools
Replies: 12
Views: 2633

Re: Online Retirement Planner Tools

What is your experience with online retirement planners? I-orp (just discovered this, seems pretty robust) I-orp is amazing with one "achilles heal": it doesn't allow you to control overall Asset Allocation. After discussion author did add a break-down of asset allocation year-by-year for total ass...
by jmk
Wed Apr 24, 2019 9:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I’m still not a fan of international bond funds
Replies: 307
Views: 41432

Re: I’m still not a fan of international bond funds

1) Looking at returns and correlations, it's pretty clear that you can't compare SEC yield of international bond fund to local bond funds. (Returns have been comparable between the two funds despite the difference in yield.) 2) I use some total international bond for a simple reason: diversification...
by jmk
Mon Apr 08, 2019 9:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Cost Basis for Vanguard
Replies: 12
Views: 1299

Re: Cost Basis for Vanguard

If you're a buy-and-hold isn't "average gain' is a lot easier since you don't have to track lots? One can still tax loss/gain harvest, but it will be based on long term averages rather than with a fine-toothed comb.
by jmk
Sun Apr 07, 2019 8:53 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Trader Joe's Fans - good value?
Replies: 148
Views: 21445

Re: Trader Joe's Fans - good value?

European style yogurt
Organic Milk
Vegan ice cream
Extra firm tofu
Dark chocolate
Pasta
Capers
Soy milk
Coffee Filters
Cauliflower rice (plain and lunches)
Indian lunches
Nice $4-$5 wines
Cheerios
Bagette
Sprouted style bread
Pumpernickle
Olive Oils
by jmk
Fri Mar 29, 2019 10:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What best way to predict Total Intl Bond Return?
Replies: 1
Views: 312

What best way to predict Total Intl Bond Return?

It's clear that the stated yield of the Total International Bond Fund is not an accurate representation of its returns. (As Vanguard puts it, "Investors should be mindful in evaluating the Vanguard Total International Bond Index Fund Admiral Shares current SEC yield. This yield, while accurately cal...
by jmk
Sun Mar 17, 2019 4:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to realistically FIRE?
Replies: 310
Views: 22657

Re: How to realistically FIRE?

Is 25x expenses/spending really a “safe” way to look at one’s ability or preparedness to retire? I realize it get safer to use such “rules of thumb” as you get older, but even for a 50 year old, is it still “within the margin of safety” to use the 25x figure? Two SSs will be there, but not using it...
by jmk
Wed Mar 13, 2019 9:10 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bright daughter wants to work for nonprofit
Replies: 103
Views: 8299

Re: Bright daughter wants to work for nonprofit

As a boglehead working in a low-paying non-profit, my two cents is: There is nothing wrong with following your heart; but she needs to make sure she is willing to live a congruent lifestyle. My dollars per paycheck saved isn't that different from many more wealthy bogleheads but it's contingent on h...
by jmk
Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Need help understanding bid/ask spread for VG ETFs
Replies: 8
Views: 730

Re: Need help understanding bid/ask spread for VG ETFs

I found this vanguard eft-fund cost calculator useful when making decision to change from Vanguard Mutual Funds to the ETF equivalents

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/faces/ ... sp?lang=en