Search found 580 matches

by jmk
Tue Apr 07, 2020 9:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Move Corporate Bond Funds Holdings to TIAA Traditional?
Replies: 3
Views: 225

Re: Move Corporate Bond Funds Holdings to TIAA Traditional?

TIAA Traditional has differing yields depending on when you purchase and the type of account. New funds I add now, for instance, give me 3% even if my "older" Traditional shares give me 4%. You'd need to check that rate before making your decision.
by jmk
Thu Apr 02, 2020 9:53 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why would anyone buy Intermediate Term Treasury Bonds right now?
Replies: 34
Views: 2889

Re: Why would anyone buy Intermediate Term Treasury Bonds right now?

Pikel wrote:
Wed Apr 01, 2020 2:59 pm
it is a sobering statistic that over a 20 year period a risk free asset outperformed a very risky asset.
I have the opposite reaction to you: it's expected that sometimes a risky asset will do worse than a safe asset. It's risky.
by jmk
Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I just rebalanced back to my AA. It gave me a little pause.
Replies: 18
Views: 1645

Re: I just rebalanced back to my AA. It gave me a little pause.

Automagic AA rebalancing. The current drop in equities has my portfolio down ~15%. I started the year at 60/40 Equities/Fixed as i entered retirement. Now I'm 40/60 without touching a thing. Miraculous! If things continue on this path I'll achieve my goal of 30/70 by year's end. :oops: Is this what...
by jmk
Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You planned for drop, but you hadn't counted on x
Replies: 20
Views: 1699

Re: You planned for drop, but you hadn't counted on x

while I always made sure I kept bonds/cds to cover my core future liabilities, I did not count on that figure taking up so much of my total assets and challenging my AA. I've been 50/50 AA forever and thought "I have plenty to be safe in a crash". Which is true; but I hadn't calculated that to "cov...
by jmk
Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You planned for drop, but you hadn't counted on x
Replies: 20
Views: 1699

You planned for drop, but you hadn't counted on x

Most of us here had a carefully developed AA, so the drop wasn't unplanned for. But I was curious what unexpected surprises folks have experienced thus far despite their planning. I have a tab on my spreadsheet where I calculate how my funds look hypothetically with a 70% crash, so today's low figur...
by jmk
Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Who is staying course and how are you dealing with net worth going down?
Replies: 359
Views: 25887

Re: Who is staying course and how are you dealing with net worth going down?

A tip that might work for others who've not "been there" in the past: In my spreadsheet I keep a tab called 'crash' where I show my portfolio if x percent equity crash happened. I usually keep it set either at -75% (for a really bad case) or -25% (for a common crash). I make a point of looking at th...
by jmk
Sat Mar 07, 2020 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk tolerance and asset allocation with mathematics
Replies: 99
Views: 5902

Re: Risk tolerance and asset allocation with mathematics

Thesaints wrote:
Wed Mar 04, 2020 6:02 pm
How normal is this distribution ?

https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads ... urns-1.jpg
Actually, if someone showed me that graph and I didn't know the phenomena I'd say "looks normal or lognormal, but with a very small sample size so not very clear yet".
by jmk
Sat Mar 07, 2020 12:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Shifting bonds from taxable to Roth—is this a good idea?
Replies: 16
Views: 1135

Re: Shifting bonds from taxable to Roth—is this a good idea?

I don't know that it's fair to compare just bonds in Roth vs stocks in Roth. Obviously the stocks will outperform bonds. What makes my situation interesting is that I must hold bonds somewhere in my portfolio, and I don't know whether to hold them in taxable or Roth. I don't plan to sell any of my ...
by jmk
Sat Mar 07, 2020 10:37 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Retirement in AZ-suggestions please
Replies: 104
Views: 7144

Re: Retirement in AZ-suggestions please

adamthesmythe wrote:
Fri Mar 06, 2020 4:26 pm
In AZ altitude is climate. Hot to cooler: Yuma, Phoenix, Tucson, Cottonwood, Sedona, Prescott, Flagstaff.
Add in,
Bisbee, Oracle.... to the list toward the lower end.
by jmk
Thu Mar 05, 2020 4:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Super Lazy portfolio, just VSMGX? [Vanguard LifeStrategy Moderate Growth]
Replies: 94
Views: 12487

Re: Super Lazy portfolio, just VSMGX? [Vanguard LifeStrategy Moderate Growth]

I use VSMGX for simplicity in some cases. For instance, for our H.S.A., it's easy for me just to mix VSMGX with VWELX to get a 50/50 AA. For my short terms funds I use for unexpected living expenses (like hvac replacement), I use half VSMGX and half bank CDs, to get an AA of 30%. Former for liquidit...
by jmk
Mon Mar 02, 2020 6:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Where to put money which may be needed in 7 years?
Replies: 8
Views: 823

Re: Where to put money which may be needed in 7 years?

I have a bucket of monies I intend to use within 7 years. It is 50% Lifestrategy Moderate and 50% Bank/Brokerage CDs. The overall AA is therefore 30% equity. The latter is for yield, the former for liquidity. It's not the most tax efficient; but I don't want to fool around with monies I'll need with...
by jmk
Sun Mar 01, 2020 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Agg Bond Funds Reacted Last Week?
Replies: 14
Views: 627

Re: How Agg Bond Funds Reacted Last Week?

It appears to me that the agg bond funds (the likes of BND and BNDX) did not move up much last week during the stock rout. Am I misinformed? Just curious... Thanks for your responses. Among standard bond funds, funds like long-term treasuries are what we might expect to go up more than BND in these...
by jmk
Sun Feb 23, 2020 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard 2020-2030 Returns Projection Table
Replies: 115
Views: 8248

Re: Vanguard 2020-2030 Returns Projection Table

To put these forecasts in perspective, I went back and looked at all of Vanguard's projections I could find going back to 2014. Basically they have forecasted below average returns and recommended caution/stay the course every year since 2014, and probably before that. 2020 is just the latest examp...
by jmk
Sun Feb 23, 2020 10:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard 2020-2030 Returns Projection Table
Replies: 115
Views: 8248

Re: Vanguard 2020-2030 Returns Projection Table

To put these forecasts in perspective, I went back and looked at all of Vanguard's projections I could find going back to 2014. Basically they have forecasted below average returns and recommended caution/stay the course every year since 2014, and probably before that. 2020 is just the latest examp...
by jmk
Thu Feb 20, 2020 3:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Education excluded ibond interest & ACA PTC
Replies: 7
Views: 358

Re: Education excluded ibond interest & ACA PTC

In seven years I plan on using ibonds to pay my daughter's tuition. Interest used for this purpose is excluded from AGI since it is used for educational expenses. I will also be on ACA. Does this excluded interest count as "tax-exempt interest" that gets included as part of the MAGI used to figure ...
by jmk
Thu Feb 20, 2020 3:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Education excluded ibond interest & ACA PTC
Replies: 7
Views: 358

Re: Education excluded ibond interest & ACA PTC

And of course there are limitations on who and when you can qualify for the exclusion. See https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/planning/plan_education.htm and https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/f8815.pdf I will be at a point of low income otherwise at that point, and intend to only use them for her t...
by jmk
Thu Feb 20, 2020 1:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Our 'cure' for emergency expenses
Replies: 147
Views: 21781

Re: Our 'cure' for emergency expenses

I do my budget monthly and my actual expenses track pretty closely. I don't keep an emergency fund. TravelforFun Just curious, how do you fund actual big surprises? Such as replacing HVAC equipment (>$5000) or removing a large dead tree (>$3000). I can see how renters can avoid saving for major cap...
by jmk
Wed Feb 19, 2020 9:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you used multiple investment strategies, which would you use and why?
Replies: 271
Views: 11358

Re: If you used multiple investment strategies, which would you use and why?

I have a two index style portfolio for 75% of my equities. The other 25% is a mix of factor and other experimental stuff-- rationalized as diversifying factors but really to minimize regret. The minimum 50% of total portfolio safe assets chasing the best yield: bank CDs, paying off mortgage, treasur...
by jmk
Tue Feb 18, 2020 9:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolio Visualizer Going Subscription
Replies: 125
Views: 9307

Re: Portfolio Visualizer Going Subscription

The Bogleheads Simba backtesting spreadsheet will remain entirely free, no subscription model! :wink: (this is -mostly- a joke, both tools serve different purposes and audiences) You may have intended that as a joke, but given the new prices of PV, I am very glad that the Simba spreadsheet exists a...
by jmk
Fri Feb 14, 2020 12:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Education excluded ibond interest & ACA PTC
Replies: 7
Views: 358

Education excluded ibond interest & ACA PTC

In seven years I plan on using ibonds to pay my daughter's tuition. Interest used for this purpose is excluded from AGI since it is used for educational expenses. I will also be on ACA. Does this excluded interest count as "tax-exempt interest" that gets included as part of the MAGI used to figure A...
by jmk
Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I have a wild [asset allocation] theory. Poke some holes in it.
Replies: 39
Views: 6555

Re: I have a wild theory. Poke some holes in it.

I actually do something similar, except I only buy enough bonds to cover the NPV of my core expense stream till estimated death. This amount changes each year of course. The rest goes into stocks for discretionary income/charity.
by jmk
Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: CD's: Bank vs Brokered
Replies: 7
Views: 858

Re: CD's: Bank vs Brokered

Why would anyone invest in the brokered CD's offered by Vanguard other than to keep things under one roof, the bank CD's seem to offer higher rates, are simpler to understand and have a 'stable market value' ? At the moment, you are correct, and Bank CDs make the most sense if you can handle the ha...
by jmk
Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simple rule for allocation between Traditional vs Roth
Replies: 20
Views: 1857

Re: Simple rule for allocation between Traditional vs Roth

I assume by "lowest tax bracket" they mean 10% rather than 0%, the actual lowest. The advice seems a bit arbitrary especially in today's environment where the second-lowest federal tax bracket is 12%. So if your top marginal rate is 10% you should go full Roth, but if you're in the very different 1...
by jmk
Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:41 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Costco Tires
Replies: 95
Views: 8066

Re: Costco Tires

Wondering what your experience has been with tires from Costco. Do they have good ones and what about the cost of installation, balancing, etc compared to Discount Tire, Tires Plus, etc.? How about support if you have a damaged tire, flat, etc. or if the tires don't seem to be right after being ins...
by jmk
Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I bought a house, what is my AA now?
Replies: 152
Views: 7923

Re: I bought a house, what is my AA now?

I agree with the majority that a house is not part of one's portfolio. However, I recently found myself falling into somewhat of that logic: As an alternative to rebalancing by purchasing a CD at 2.4%, I instead paid down an equal amount of my 3% mortgage. Because I will end up with a "gain" at the ...
by jmk
Sun Feb 09, 2020 10:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 992
Views: 333781

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

My current retirement income modelling (we are in late stages considering when to retire) I use three different approaches to approximate future income potentials. 1.) I use longinvest's VPW sheet essentially exactly as he publishes it. I find the model simple, clear to understand and meaningful. 2...
by jmk
Sun Feb 09, 2020 9:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Student Loan Repayment
Replies: 32
Views: 4021

Re: Student Loan Repayment

We dont live an expensive lifestyle but we do live in NYC. ... Day Care / Nanny costs are about 1.5k to 2k alone. Imo many people overpay for daycare because they assume they’re getting better quality with a boutique place with a demographic that match their social class. If you’re willing to be fl...
by jmk
Fri Feb 07, 2020 7:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Medium Term Savings
Replies: 5
Views: 528

Re: Medium Term Savings

I'm looking to start putting money away for new vehicles in the next 10-12 years for the spouse and I. We both own newer cars, so they won't need to be replaced for quite some time. Keeping money in savings seems useless with the low interest rate climate we have now. Has anyone saved for a 10-12 y...
by jmk
Fri Feb 07, 2020 7:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Article: 'Is the Fama-French Model Dead?'
Replies: 28
Views: 2212

Re: Article: 'Is the Fama-French Model Dead?'

Falkenblog's primary argument is that factor returns since publication stink--which is true. But the time period post-publication is low compared to the whole data set. Also, the data set has been tested out of sample. So IMO too early to dismiss. The other element, as Larry Swedroe has emphasized, ...
by jmk
Wed Feb 05, 2020 12:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is my 1099-R (distribution code T) in error?
Replies: 3
Views: 425

Re: Is my 1099-R (distribution code T) in error?

A 1099R should never have been issued since this was totally a bank error, or they would not have corrected it in the first place. Your one rollover for 12 months was applied, and while that 12 months has now been completed, what if you had rolled over another distribution made between 1/2018 and 1...
by jmk
Wed Feb 05, 2020 11:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is my 1099-R (distribution code T) in error?
Replies: 3
Views: 425

Is my 1099-R (distribution code T) in error?

In January 2019 I deposited money into a Roth savings account for a credit union to use for a Roth CD. A bank rep set it up incorrectly over the phone, and transferred the money from the Roth-Savings into a regular CD. When I pointed out the error in April, they corrected things by transferring the ...
by jmk
Mon Jan 27, 2020 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Downsides of VPW?
Replies: 105
Views: 9093

Re: Downsides of VPW?

:thumbsup ... splitting one's portfolio into two 'pieces', one to cover essential spending and another to fund discretionary spending, with the explicit aim of running out of discretionary funds late in life being a feature, not a bug. The idea didn't fly well around here. That is essentially what ...
by jmk
Sat Jan 18, 2020 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond fund SEC yield vs YTM
Replies: 9
Views: 559

Bond fund SEC yield vs YTM

I've always used the SEC yield as a placeholder for expected bond index fund returns.
But I've been wondering lately in a world of very low interest rates if the YTM is more accurate for this purpose.

Latest figures for Total Bond Fund show SECy=2.22%, YTM=2.47%. (And fwiw, Distr yield=2.73%.)
by jmk
Fri Jan 17, 2020 5:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best CD rates thread
Replies: 656
Views: 86667

Re: Best CD rates thread

MathIsMyWayr wrote:
Fri Jan 17, 2020 9:10 am
After all the fed and state income taxes, 3% interest will come down under 1.9%. I am sure whether it will fall behind the inflation rate.
That's why this year I'm paying down my 3% mortgage instead of getting CDs.
by jmk
Wed Jan 15, 2020 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fallacy of time diversification
Replies: 105
Views: 6856

Re: Fallacy of time diversification

A picture makes the issue clearer for me to give specifics to vague notions like "risk". Compare a bootstrapped monte carlo (1930-2019 Shiller data) 10,000 runs of Sp500 versus Cash. (It doesn't reflect auto-correlation, but will work for this issue.) Cash: https://i.imgur.com/1MLUIAX.jpg SP500: htt...
by jmk
Tue Jan 14, 2020 8:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fallacy of time diversification
Replies: 105
Views: 6856

Re: Fallacy of time diversification

deleted
by jmk
Mon Jan 13, 2020 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What causes a bond bear market? Can it lead to sequence of returns risk?
Replies: 19
Views: 2472

Re: What causes a bond bear market? Can it lead to sequence of returns risk?

Define what you mean by a bear market for bonds. Stocks are defined to have been in a bear market when there is a downdraft in nominal terms of 20% or more. I don’t think there ever has been a bear market for treasuries if you use that definition. Inflation is the serious risk for nominal bonds, an...
by jmk
Sun Jan 12, 2020 1:59 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Download Vanguard Transaction History
Replies: 13
Views: 1243

Re: Download Vanguard Transaction History

Hello guys, Here it goes with what I have accomplished to date. I can only Save To A File from my Brokerage Account for 18 months and downloading to a CSV file. On the other hand in my Brokerage Account under transactions, I can only print all transactions back to inception of my account. In conclu...
by jmk
Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best CD rates thread
Replies: 656
Views: 86667

Re: Best CD rates thread

Is there any bank/CU that is at say the 75th percentile range ? The usual suspects (Ally, Marcus, Capital One, Purepoint) maybe ? My go-to list of such banks/CDs includes: Andrews, Mountain America FCU, Live Oak bank and Connexu. In the last few years they've tended to be toward the top consistentl...
by jmk
Sun Jan 05, 2020 9:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best CD rates thread
Replies: 656
Views: 86667

Re: Best CD rates thread

Forgive a bit of a side track, but I'm intrigued by how the relationship between treasuries and CDs seems to change over time. Graph I put together at FRED: 5 year treasury / 5 y jumbo cd rate It's not really a side track, since Treasuries are an alternative to CDs. Certainly fascinating. And Treas...
by jmk
Sun Jan 05, 2020 3:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best CD rates thread
Replies: 656
Views: 86667

Re: Best CD rates thread

Based on treasury rates, it seems like CDs should be about where the brokered ones are? The 5 year treasury is at about 1.6% and 5 year brokered CD is about 1.9%, based on Vanguard's site. And if the market were open, there might be some variation among the various offerings but I don't think it wo...
by jmk
Sat Jan 04, 2020 12:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best CD rates thread
Replies: 656
Views: 86667

Re: Best CD rates thread

I've read many of the comments regarding transferring funds to open a CD when you live outside the geographic area of the CU offering the CD. Generally, if the out of your area CU offering the CD is part of Shared Branching, and you are a member of a local CU in Shared Branching, can you open the C...
by jmk
Fri Jan 03, 2020 2:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Backtesting for Great Depression
Replies: 23
Views: 2512

Re: Backtesting for Great Depression

I have backtested my portfolio through hundreds of simulations using PV from 1972 onwards and given my current contributions, asset allocation and time period until I retire (6 years or so from now) I am happy that most of the periods seem reasonable - the worst outcome required me to wait a year o...
by jmk
Fri Jan 03, 2020 1:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Low-earners- What is your profession?
Replies: 371
Views: 56605

Re: Low-earners- What is your profession?

It has become less of an elephant in the room for our own social circle where we live simply because we are old enough and all of our good friends are old enough where almost everyone has lost their parents in the past few years. Most of us, if we discuss finances, talk about retirement, future goa...
by jmk
Tue Dec 31, 2019 12:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Your Retirement Number, or, calculating the funding ratio
Replies: 205
Views: 36513

Re: Your Retirement Number, or, calculating the funding ratio

Question about using the same discount rate for income and liabilities in NPV calculations: An argument can be made that unlike the investment return which includes a risk premium component, there is no risk (other than mortality) in the liability payment, and therefore the only discount that shoul...
by jmk
Tue Dec 31, 2019 12:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Your Retirement Number, or, calculating the funding ratio
Replies: 205
Views: 36513

Re: Your Retirement Number, or, calculating the funding ratio

Question about using the same discount rate for income and liabilities in NPV calculations: An argument can be made that unlike the investment return which includes a risk premium component, there is no risk (other than mortality) in the liability payment, and therefore the only discount that should...
by jmk
Mon Dec 30, 2019 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time Value of Money vs. Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 148
Views: 14779

Re: Time Value of Money vs. Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

For some reason I am having trouble with this issue: I have a spreadsheet of projected year by year cash flow reflecting guaranteed income and core living expenses that I use for my TVM funded ratio. My question: Do I include dividends and capital gains as income in this sheet? I've always left it o...
by jmk
Wed Dec 25, 2019 12:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: White Coat Investor: Enough is Enough!
Replies: 289
Views: 31283

Re: White Coat Investor: Enough is Enough!

HEDGEFUNDIE wrote:
Tue Dec 24, 2019 11:22 pm
1/3 spending
1/3 savings
1/3 taxes / charity

Just like with my portfolio, I try to rebalance if any piece becomes too large or small.
This is nice and follows the Boglehead philosophy of simplicity.
by jmk
Mon Dec 23, 2019 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your AA, given your age? and, Why?
Replies: 284
Views: 36506

Re: What is your AA, given your age? and, Why?

Folks, 1. Without quantifying your need/ability/willing to take risk and/or goals, what is your AA (Stock:Bond), given your age? and why? 2. How do you glide your AA as you approach financial independence (not retirement) ? 1) I started 50/50 out of ignorance, but now, close to FI, have maintained ...