Search found 304 matches

by jmk
Sun Jan 14, 2018 9:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Recommend an A.C. powered auto tire inflator
Replies: 28
Views: 1306

Re: Recommend an A.C. powered auto tire inflator

Harbor Freight has a variety of cheap ones of different sizes. I don't use it that often so quality wasn't key. I was so cheap I bought a smaller one that I have to "refill" for each tire.
by jmk
Sun Jan 14, 2018 8:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Are land line phones still being supported?
Replies: 60
Views: 3483

Re: Are land line phones still being supported?

In my neck of the woods they are still supported. I have one!
by jmk
Sun Jan 14, 2018 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quick question cape10 old earnings too estimate returns
Replies: 0
Views: 69

Quick question cape10 old earnings too estimate returns

Since the CAPE10 earnings, though in real dollars, reflect "old" real earnings, how does one adjust to predict estimated returns? Since real earnings increase ~2% per year, does today's cape10 of 33.8 imply 2.96+~10%=3.25%?
by jmk
Wed Jan 10, 2018 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I Bonds and New Tax Law -- any changes?
Replies: 19
Views: 1771

Re: I Bonds and New Tax Law -- any changes?

4. They can be used tax-free for qualifying educational expenses. This last one is often overlooked. I'm using my ibonds to pay for our child's tuition in 10 years in lieu of a 529. Even with cashing them in a few years early, it makes more sense than a 529 since I would be paying income tax otherw...
by jmk
Sun Jan 07, 2018 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 1063
Views: 588926

Re: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]

Wonder if spreadsheet should switch from cpi-u going forward? Under the previous tax law, inflation is measured by the consumer price index for all urban consumers, also known as the CPI-U, which essentially tracks the cost of goods and services that affect the typical household. The new law adopts...
by jmk
Sat Jan 06, 2018 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 1063
Views: 588926

Re: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]

Wonder if spreadsheet should switch from cpi-u going forward? Under the previous tax law, inflation is measured by the consumer price index for all urban consumers, also known as the CPI-U, which essentially tracks the cost of goods and services that affect the typical household. The new law adopts ...
by jmk
Thu Jan 04, 2018 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.
Replies: 56
Views: 3509

Re: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.

You can easily experiment with different buy-sell rules on Portfoliovisualizer. On paper some seem to work. Portfolio Visualizer is a great tool, but the one thing missing from their Moving Averages Model is the ability to model withdrawals. Instead, their Moving Averages Model assumes that you hav...
by jmk
Wed Jan 03, 2018 12:06 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Your Retirement Number, or, calculating the funding ratio
Replies: 199
Views: 30184

Re: Your Retirement Number, or, calculating the funding ratio

It seems to me that the discount rate should be consistent with the safest real LT rate that matches the duration of the liability. That would a TIPS rate. Since TIPS only go out 30 years the 30 year TIPS rate should be used for liabilities far in the future, i.e. it should be used for young invest...
by jmk
Mon Jan 01, 2018 6:45 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: If you use EE Bonds, what did drive your decision
Replies: 41
Views: 2881

Re: If you use EE Bonds, what did drive your decision

EE can function nicelyfor liability matching. However their lack of liquidity has two big impacts: not only do I need to wait 20 years but I’ll have no wiggle room at that point in not withdrawing, affecting taxes. I bought EE to be used for income during that period before SS kicked in, but stopped...
by jmk
Sun Dec 31, 2017 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.
Replies: 56
Views: 3509

Re: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.

You can experiment with simple buy-sell rules on Portfoliovisualizer. Not the CAPE ones though. On paper some seem to work.
by jmk
Sat Dec 30, 2017 9:32 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Join the Wiki!
Replies: 51
Views: 32431

Re: Join the Wiki!

Can I please permitted to edit wiki? I want to beef up and revise the page "https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Withdrawal_methods" which I feel is seriously out of date. I want to add regroup and add under the categories (a) decision rule methods (constant $, constant %, guyton rules, zolt rules), (b) ...
by jmk
Thu Dec 28, 2017 7:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What ever happened to the Larry portfolio?
Replies: 114
Views: 10441

Re: What ever happened to the Larry portfolio?

If you look at the Research Affiliates optimized portfolios based on expected returns (click the black dotes on their 10y expected returns chart), you'll see they closely resemble the Larry Portfolio: All Emerging and EAFE, little small with no US large growth....
by jmk
Wed Dec 27, 2017 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What ever happened to the Larry portfolio?
Replies: 114
Views: 10441

Re: What ever happened to the Larry portfolio?

I agree that there is big value to diversifying across factors. Ironically, the importance of this diversification perhaps increases as the time horizon SHORTENS. Over a short time period, we don’t know how any factor will perform, so best to diversify. A point worth noting. And of course it's true...
by jmk
Mon Dec 25, 2017 4:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is or was your target multiplier (_ x annual expenses) for retirement?
Replies: 41
Views: 5117

Re: What is or was your target multiplier (_ x annual expenses) for retirement?

AlohaJoe wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 3:19 am
=PMT(average(1/PE, Research Affiliates expected returns), years_left, networth, 0, 1) * POWER(networth / target_networth, 1/3)
Can you please explain your formula? I get the first part but not the power part.
by jmk
Fri Dec 22, 2017 5:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: pay down mortgage or invest in taxable
Replies: 73
Views: 6147

Re: pay down mortgage or invest in taxable

This comes down to risk. Since you're getting nothing in need based financial aid, you'd want to determine if you're ok with upcoming potential market downturns. If you are, then sure....invest in a taxable account. If seeing your account go to half what it is now would turn your stomach or worse, ...
by jmk
Sun Dec 10, 2017 6:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 1063
Views: 588926

Re: Spreadsheet for backtesting (includes TrevH's data)

I think it would be great if we could cobble together something that represented investing in good, direct CDs, including taking advantage of the early withdrawal options to reinvest at higher rates if justified, but I seriously doubt the data is easily available if available at all. DepositAccount...
by jmk
Sun Dec 10, 2017 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 1063
Views: 588926

Simple boostrap: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet

I thought I'd share a spreadsheet to allow folks to do a dirty 40 year 3-year moving bootstrap of the whole simba dataset with some simple results such as cagr, sustained withdrawal rate. You need to download to excel for it to work. Note this is a very primitive spreadsheet, just to get folks think...
by jmk
Sun Dec 10, 2017 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 1063
Views: 588926

Re: Spreadsheet for backtesting (includes TrevH's data)

I think it would be great if we could cobble together something that represented investing in good, direct CDs, including taking advantage of the early withdrawal options to reinvest at higher rates if justified, but I seriously doubt the data is easily available if available at all. DepositAccount...
by jmk
Tue Dec 05, 2017 10:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Lowering My Grocery Bill
Replies: 110
Views: 7351

Re: Lowering My Grocery Bill

The closer you buy to generic items rather than processed the cheaper. For instance, if you buy dry pintos and tortillas and make them in the pressure cooker your burritos will cost much lower than if you buy burritos. Buy cheap cuts of meat like chuck or whole cut up chicken too.
by jmk
Thu Nov 23, 2017 11:03 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Your favorite Costco wines?
Replies: 40
Views: 4051

Re: Your favorite Costco wines?

I'm a foodie but don't find the costco wines worth their $. I sometimes buy cases of Costco Blackstone when it's on sale for $5 a bottle; but I find Trader Joe's $4-6 range wines are a better value for the money. I appreciate good wine--but when trying to achieve the FI savings rates people talk abo...
by jmk
Wed Nov 22, 2017 8:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best way to withdraw from Inherited IRA in retirement?
Replies: 2
Views: 367

Best way to withdraw from Inherited IRA in retirement?

I am about three years from FI at age 57 so am starting to think about different withdrawal strategies. I have a pretty good handle on converting my "traditional" 403bs to Roths during my early retirement in order to eliminate future RMDs. But I'm having trouble getting my head around what to do wit...
by jmk
Sat Nov 18, 2017 2:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should we be using high equity retirement portfolios? - Some cFIREsim scenarios.
Replies: 58
Views: 6138

Re: Should we be using high equity retirement portfolios? - Some cFIREsim scenarios.

We have been conditioned to believe that when approaching and entering retirement, a significant portion of our portfolio should be in bonds. But at least in these scenarios, and within the universe of the historical data used by cFIREsim, the “safety of bonds” seems illusory for an investor that h...
by jmk
Sat Nov 18, 2017 6:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Monte Carlo Analysis VS Historical Rolling Periods
Replies: 28
Views: 2211

Re: Monte Carlo Analysis VS Historical Rolling Periods

Bootstrapping is another alternative to historical returns or Monte Carlo based on statistical parameters. I prefer it, though it suffers its own limitations. Bootstrapping invokes random sampling of the past. In other words, different sequences of the same historical data. One can incorporate cycle...
by jmk
Wed Nov 01, 2017 12:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Troublesome and questionable change in I-ORP Social Security Calculations
Replies: 12
Views: 2852

Re: Troublesome and questionable change in I-ORP Social Security Calculations

Just a quick note for those coming to this topic late that the I-ORP author changed things so users may choose to not reduce SS in 2036 with a simple checkbox.
by jmk
Wed Nov 01, 2017 8:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How I use I-ORP, and who shouldn't
Replies: 127
Views: 13652

Re: How I use I-ORP, and who shouldn't

...Since I retired at 61, if I postponed SS to age 70 to maximize total retirement spending, I'd draw down my 401k by 40% before I got there, OTOH, if I took SS at 62, the drawdown is no more than 10%. Postponing SS to 70 results in about 1% more total spending in retirement (from 61-95), but I did...
by jmk
Tue Oct 24, 2017 4:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio for long-ish term expenses
Replies: 12
Views: 744

Re: Portfolio for long-ish term expenses

Let's say you create a bucket with 40% total stock market and 60% total bond (or a tax-exempt bond fund if more appropriate). According to Portfolio Visualizer, since 1987, this would have resulted in a real CAGR of 5.24%, 6.59% standard deviation, and a max drawdown of just slightly less than 20% ...
by jmk
Tue Oct 24, 2017 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio for long-ish term expenses
Replies: 12
Views: 744

Re: Portfolio for long-ish term expenses

in 7-10 years we'll need a new roof. At some point, I would like to buy a new car (though mine is running just fine for now). Etc. I'm in same position and I use a separate taxable bucket for anticipated expenses over next 7-10 years: roof, a/c, new car, etc. I have my long term monies spread acros...
by jmk
Sun Oct 22, 2017 6:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does anyone here with net worths north of $1 mil use financial advisors?
Replies: 175
Views: 18836

Re: Does anyone here with net worths north of $1 mil use financial advisors?

The part I'm thinking of using an FA for is optimizing withdrawals from SS / tax sheltered / taxable withdrawals and tax efficiency. Also, monte carlo simulations. I know there's programs out there like I-ORP; but don't the FAs have access to more complex software?
by jmk
Tue Oct 17, 2017 8:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Hold bonds in taxable or tax-deferred accounts? I am confused
Replies: 12
Views: 1594

Re: Hold bonds in taxable or tax-deferred accounts? I am confused

Are there any quantitative resources to support the strategy of bonds -> tax advantaged accounts (or vice versa?)? I found the analysis and spreadsheets at http://www.retailinvestor.org/RRSPmodel.html very helpful in trying to figure out the nuances. I draw your attention especially to "RRSP Decisi...
by jmk
Sat Oct 14, 2017 6:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alternative to Google Finance? [Portfolios feature deprecated]
Replies: 64
Views: 15883

Re: Alternative to Google Finance?

Use the tools bar and look for instant X-ray on the drop down. You should not have to have a free trial for the instant x-ray. You just have to enter your tickers and add how many dollars on each fund. It will give you the complete x-ray after you enter the info. thank you! i was trying to do xray;...
by jmk
Fri Oct 13, 2017 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alternative to Google Finance? [Portfolios feature deprecated]
Replies: 64
Views: 15883

Re: Alternative to Google Finance?

Is there any free service that is similar to the Morningstar "portfolio x-ray" feature? The x-ray service at Morningstar has a free mode. You just have to hand enter your portfolio each time to get the X-Ray from one of the drop down categories. If you are tracking a portfolio there, just use the d...
by jmk
Fri Oct 13, 2017 8:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alternative to Google Finance? [Portfolios feature deprecated]
Replies: 64
Views: 15883

Re: Alternative to Google Finance?

dwickenh wrote:
Tue Sep 26, 2017 5:27 pm
Agree that without a subscription it can be aggravating. I do not subscribe as I think the price is too high for the product.
Is there any free service that is similar to the Morningstar "portfolio x-ray" feature?
by jmk
Mon Oct 09, 2017 1:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: US I-bonds to 529 plan/ Tax question
Replies: 6
Views: 638

Re: US I-bonds to 529 plan/ Tax question

Oddly the 8815 form doesn't mention 529s. Does the 529 rollover need to happen the same year you spend on the educational expenses just as if you're using the bonds directly for education expenses? As an aside, is the rollover a way around the restriction on Treasuries for tuition only (no room and ...
by jmk
Mon Oct 02, 2017 6:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a Roth conversion a good idea if you are in the 15% tax bracket?
Replies: 39
Views: 4210

Re: Is a Roth conversion a good idea if you are in the 15% tax bracket?

You should know what your pension & SS would be if you were 65 next week based on today's wages. And you know what your RMD would be also be based on the IRA balance today. Decide on that basis if you would do a ROTH conversion this December. Next year do the calculation again based on the newer da...
by jmk
Mon Oct 02, 2017 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a Roth conversion a good idea if you are in the 15% tax bracket?
Replies: 39
Views: 4210

Re: Is a Roth conversion a good idea if you are in the 15% tax bracket?

Under current law you will probably not be in the 15% marginal tax rate when you start taking social security because up to 85% of you SS becomes taxable for each dollar of other income you have - like RMD's. So in the 15% bracket you marginal rate may be 27.75% not 15%. And you qual divs and LTCG ...
by jmk
Thu Sep 28, 2017 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Research Affiliated Model Portfolios: ZERO % US stocks
Replies: 46
Views: 5159

Re: Research Affiliated Model Portfolios: ZERO % US stocks

Their results are a bit unexpected given the fairly wide range around their predicted value of US equity large; but I suppose the low end of EAFE is still above the high range of US Large. From their web site: Valuation based model (CAPE) (real) -3.3 to 4.4% (0.5% avg) Yield & Growth model (Gordon) ...
by jmk
Fri Sep 22, 2017 3:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Having First Child a little later in life, Debt just paid, Help Us Check In
Replies: 14
Views: 1776

Re: Having First Child a little later in life, Debt just paid, Help Us Check In

adam61 wrote:
Thu Sep 21, 2017 11:07 am
I’ve never wanted to deal with the tax considerations and other terms that come with taxable accounts outside CD/SAV/I-bonds which are just simple interest.
Mental block aside, you could also use savings bonds to pay college tuition tax free.
by jmk
Wed Sep 20, 2017 11:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help me solve: Not allowed access to savings at Canadian bank
Replies: 13
Views: 2029

Re: Help me solve: Not allowed access to savings at Canadian bank

If I were you, plan a trip up to anywhere close to you in Canada to appear in a branch, and document yourself to them That's what they said: "the Edmonton fair is wonderful." , Why keep the account if you are never going to visit Canada ?... plus you have foreign bank reporting requirements (FBAR, ...
by jmk
Wed Sep 20, 2017 10:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Are quality exterior doors worth it?
Replies: 17
Views: 2263

Re: Are quality exterior doors worth it?

It's nice they stand by their work, but warranties are an actuarial bet and the chances of anyone calling in that warranty in decades are essentially zero. I agree. I've seen a lot of doors in houses that are decades old and still in good shape. In fact, I can't think I've ever seen a door fail oth...
by jmk
Wed Sep 20, 2017 10:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does bid-ask spread matter with automatic reinvestment?
Replies: 14
Views: 819

Re: Does bid-ask spread matter with automatic reinvestment?

If you reinvest dividends in a mutual fund, the fund has to purchase the underlying assets, and there will be a spread there, too. I don't think there's much of a difference. One you see very plainly, the other you don't. I may ignorant but aren't mutual funds ought and sold at a single price at en...
by jmk
Wed Sep 20, 2017 10:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: is AQR long-short really less risky than TSM?
Replies: 11
Views: 946

Re: is AQR long-short really less risky than TSM?

Well, M* says that the minimum investment is $5 million. I guess I will take a pass on this opportunity. There are some brokerages where you can buy N shares for around $3K minimums in IRAs, like Fidelity. Some have access to institutional shares through advisers as well. For the record I have only...
by jmk
Wed Sep 20, 2017 10:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: is AQR long-short really less risky than TSM?
Replies: 11
Views: 946

Re: is AQR long-short really less risky than TSM?

Well, M* says that the minimum investment is $5 million. I guess I will take a pass on this opportunity. There are some brokerages where you can buy N shares for around $3K minimums in IRAs, like Fidelity. Some have access to institutional shares through advisers as well. For the record I have $280...
by jmk
Wed Sep 20, 2017 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does bid-ask spread matter with automatic reinvestment?
Replies: 14
Views: 819

Re: Does bid-ask spread matter with automatic reinvestment?

There is NO bid/ask spread at the opening cross when Vanguard executes the order for dividend reinvestment, so the bid/ask spread does not come into play when Vanguard is one's broker: "Rounding error" isn't the same as bid-ask spread, and looks miniscule. Ok, so if all that's true then I am probab...
by jmk
Wed Sep 20, 2017 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: is AQR long-short really less risky than TSM?
Replies: 11
Views: 946

Re: is AQR long-short really less risky than TSM?

Just a simple statement of what I found. ... By all the measures shown by PortfolioVisualizer, it's been better in every way. This much I know. Of course we don't know how the fund would react in a crash. And more importantly, since it's "safety" is from balancing shorting and leverage, we don't kn...
by jmk
Wed Sep 20, 2017 9:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does bid-ask spread matter with automatic reinvestment?
Replies: 14
Views: 819

Does bid-ask spread matter with automatic reinvestment?

Please forgive the noob question, but does bid-ask spread matter with automatic reinvestments of ETFs? I ask because I try to avoid rebalancing VSS since it has a fairly large spread. Yet I have it set for automatic reinvest rather than sending money to my MM account where I could re-invest it in un...
by jmk
Wed Sep 20, 2017 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: is AQR long-short really less risky than TSM?
Replies: 11
Views: 946

is AQR long-short really less risky than TSM?

AQR Long-Short fund (QLEIX) varies its beta between 0.3 and 0.7, "intending on average a beta of 0.5". It's benchmark is 0.5 treasuries + 0.5 msci world. On paper this is a conservative fund. But is this type of fund really less risky (by half) than a vanilla total world market fund? In a 50% crash ...
by jmk
Tue Sep 19, 2017 10:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Are quality exterior doors worth it?
Replies: 17
Views: 2263

Are quality exterior doors worth it?

We need to replace a simple rear exterior door. A salesman offered one for $3000 installed that was "dense foam" and came with a lifetime warrantee that carries over to next owner (for all but exterior paint). Is there any real difference between this $3000 door and one I can get at Home Depot or lo...
by jmk
Sat Sep 16, 2017 10:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help me solve: Not allowed access to savings at Canadian bank
Replies: 13
Views: 2029

Help me solve: Not allowed access to savings at Canadian bank

My parents listed me as joint owner of a savings account at the CIBC (Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce) in Alberta Canada, and after they passed I became the sole owner. I live in USA many thousands of miles away. I get statements each year and report the tiny income on my taxes but am repeatedly ...
by jmk
Sat Sep 16, 2017 6:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Bonds - Update
Replies: 58
Views: 6968

Re: International Bonds - Update

The "diversification" benefit, if it exists at all, is pretty darned small--probably because a high quality bond is a high quality bond regardless of what country the issuer is from, and because what with transborder money flow it seems unlikely that national interest rates could diverge by very mu...