Search found 1269 matches

by pascalwager
Fri Dec 07, 2018 3:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on Vanguard advice
Replies: 22
Views: 3132

Re: Thoughts on Vanguard advice

I have a 1M plus portfolio asset allocated at Vanguard and was eligible for a 'free' portfolio review and thought what the heck, I'd go for it and listen to the feedback of the professional advisors. I generally follow the asset allocation of their VTXVX (2015 target retirement fund) with total Bon...
by pascalwager
Fri Dec 07, 2018 3:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on Vanguard advice
Replies: 22
Views: 3132

Re: Thoughts on Vanguard advice

They told me that because I had a lot of specific questions that I should consider having them manage my portfolio. Needless to say, I was unimpressed. They also won’t advise on anything other than Vanguard funds, so anything like insurance they won’t tell you. I thought I was over insured for life...
by pascalwager
Sun Dec 02, 2018 12:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2 Fund Ports: Everything You NEED?
Replies: 32
Views: 3606

Re: 2 Fund Ports: Everything You NEED?

BND or BNDW is too much duration for a retiree. As a retiree, I like 100% ST TIPS right now, but more generally: IT TIPS/ST corporate or IT TIPS/ST Treasuries. (Even as a worker, I wouldn't own a fund over five years maturity unless it had inflation protection.) It sounds like what you're saying is...
by pascalwager
Sat Dec 01, 2018 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The five-fund portfolio
Replies: 12
Views: 1819

Re: The five-fund portfolio

As much as I love the simplicity of the traditional three-fund portfolio, I find it increasingly hard to recommend it. In my humble opinion, it is missing two critical assets: TIPS . Inflation is a real risk, and many people would greatly benefit from having at least some TIPS, especially as they g...
by pascalwager
Fri Nov 30, 2018 10:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2 Fund Ports: Everything You NEED?
Replies: 32
Views: 3606

Re: 2 Fund Ports: Everything You NEED?

Before retirement (essentially) our port: 60% VT + 40% BND. Retired port: 40% VT + 40% BND + 15% TIP + 5% CASH. As retirees using a 4% AWR. We wanted to reduce portfolio volatility so we sold equity and put the procedes into TIPS to protect 25% of our FI allocation against unexpected inflation; CAS...
by pascalwager
Wed Nov 28, 2018 8:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your allocation to U.S. and International?
Replies: 119
Views: 7016

Re: What is your allocation to U.S. and International?

European investor here. I have a very strong gut feeling that the U.S. will continue to be the dominant economy in the world for at least my lifetime. However, managing your money using your gut feeling is foolish. Logic and probability says it is unwise to invest in a single country. Global market...
by pascalwager
Mon Nov 26, 2018 11:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone Pulled the Trigger on Global Wellington/Wellesley?
Replies: 33
Views: 8535

Re: Anyone Pulled the Trigger on Global Wellington/Wellesley?

columbia wrote:
Mon Nov 26, 2018 6:15 pm
I own both - they’ve performed as you would expect. :)
Do you allocate the two funds as a unit to produce some desired stocks/bonds ratio?
by pascalwager
Mon Nov 26, 2018 2:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your allocation to U.S. and International?
Replies: 119
Views: 7016

Re: What is your allocation to U.S. and International?

The problem with 50/50 is the same problem as 60/40 and 70/30. They all depend on reversion to some sort of mean. Look at the US proportion from 1900. It was around 15% of the world markets. If you then decided then 15:85 was the "correct" long term ratio and rebalanced it back to that each year, y...
by pascalwager
Mon Nov 26, 2018 1:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your allocation to U.S. and International?
Replies: 119
Views: 7016

Re: What is your allocation to U.S. and International?

The problem with 50/50 is the same problem as 60/40 and 70/30. They all depend on reversion to some sort of mean. Look at the US proportion from 1900. It was around 15% of the world markets. If you then decided then 15:85 was the "correct" long term ratio and rebalanced it back to that each year, y...
by pascalwager
Sun Nov 25, 2018 4:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your allocation to U.S. and International?
Replies: 119
Views: 7016

Re: What is your allocation to U.S. and International?

I don't think of this the way most responders do. My equity target is 75/25 but that 25 foreign is small developed. Having large international does little for diversity because large US and large foreign are mostly international firms that are all swimming in the same pool. So you get little divers...
by pascalwager
Sun Nov 25, 2018 12:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your allocation to U.S. and International?
Replies: 119
Views: 7016

Re: What is your allocation to U.S. and International?

I have a remaining 23% international in taxable with capital gains. Otherwise, I might exchange for an overall 100% US. I no longer consider international an investable asset and actually haven't for a long time.
by pascalwager
Sat Nov 24, 2018 9:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 754
Views: 98464

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

I like to think of “maximum diversification” portfolio as akin to the all-weather portfolio or the Permanent Portfolio. It’s a hedge against risk. I wouldn't dispute that. However, there are a great many potential hedges against a large number of risks. But there are three questions that should be ...
by pascalwager
Sat Nov 24, 2018 8:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 754
Views: 98464

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

I like to think of “maximum diversification” portfolio as akin to the all-weather portfolio or the Permanent Portfolio. It’s a hedge against risk. I wouldn't dispute that. However, there are a great many potential hedges against a large number of risks. But there are three questions that should be ...
by pascalwager
Fri Nov 23, 2018 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 754
Views: 98464

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

I've had between 45% and 51% foreign stocks since 1995. That ended today. I've come to agree with some others that foreign, considering various arguments, is unnecessary if not harmful. Well, it has been very harmful to my portfolio performance, compared to US. So, I've exchanged all of my foreign s...
by pascalwager
Thu Nov 22, 2018 12:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Taxable Account in Retirement: What Is Reason to Direct Dividends to MM for Spending/Not Reinvest?
Replies: 21
Views: 2238

Re: Taxable Account in Retirement: What Is Reason to Direct Dividends to MM for Spending/Not Reinvest?

I've been 100% reinvesting distributions since 1995 and never had any related problems doing my taxes. Vanguard and Schwab provided all the tax data that I, and later Turbo Tax, needed. This included redeeming $450k worth of stocks, MM, global bonds, and I Bonds for some major purchases over a short...
by pascalwager
Wed Nov 21, 2018 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Munis Increasingly Risky
Replies: 94
Views: 8912

Re: Larry Swedroe: Munis Increasingly Risky

I’m not saying that the risks that people are mentioning aren’t real, nor that they might possibly manifest in a default crisis of some sort. Instead, I’m saying that imagining a crisis is only really actionable if we have some estimate of both the likelihood and magnitude of such a crisis. Even if...
by pascalwager
Wed Nov 21, 2018 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Munis Increasingly Risky
Replies: 94
Views: 8912

Re: Larry Swedroe: Munis Increasingly Risky

I have seen these types of posts before in the past and I have never made any changes. I am not the type of person to quickly make asset allocation changes due to forum posts. However, I have been thinking about munis and risk over the past couple of years. If I'm in a tax bracket that changes (but...
by pascalwager
Wed Nov 21, 2018 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reducing number of funds by supplementing LifeStrategy
Replies: 16
Views: 2159

Re: Reducing number of funds by supplementing LifeStrategy

Using the LS fund plus the two stock funds would seem to be a very good AA in tax-sheltered if your goal is simplification. I've been experimenting myself using the LS Growth fund or the TD 2065 fund. I leaned toward TD 2065 as it has only 10% bonds, I don't like intermediate bonds, and I wanted to ...
by pascalwager
Wed Nov 21, 2018 12:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard lowering Admiral level to $3,000?
Replies: 224
Views: 17094

Re: Vanguard lowering Admiral level to $3,000?

I saw the SEC form above showing Total World Stock Fund and new Admiral Shares, but didn't see any 10 bps ER. For now I'll keep using the two funds and reconsider when the change is actually processed and the new ER is known. At 10 bps I'd still be paying about $100 annual additional cost compared ...
by pascalwager
Wed Nov 21, 2018 12:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard lowering Admiral level to $3,000?
Replies: 224
Views: 17094

Re: Vanguard lowering Admiral level to $3,000?

So this has nothing specific to do with the lowering of some Admiral share class funds? Or? RM What's your point? I stated mine earlier, and I would refer you to my first post in this thread. My point/question is that this thread is about "V anguard lowering Admiral level to $3,000 ?" So I'm just t...
by pascalwager
Tue Nov 20, 2018 3:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard lowering Admiral level to $3,000?
Replies: 224
Views: 17094

Re: Vanguard lowering Admiral level to $3,000?

I saw the SEC form above showing Total World Stock Fund and new Admiral Shares, but didn't see any 10 bps ER. For now I'll keep using the two funds and reconsider when the change is actually processed and the new ER is known. At 10 bps I'd still be paying about $100 annual additional cost compared t...
by pascalwager
Mon Nov 19, 2018 4:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Target Retirement/Life Strategy vs 4 Fund DIY balancing
Replies: 22
Views: 2864

Re: Vanguard Target Retirement/Life Strategy vs 4 Fund DIY balancing

Bogleheads, After two years of contemplation, information ,and advice from mostly Boglehead choir sources, I am trying to make a decision between placing my retirement nest egg (age 68) at my decided present allocation decision of 45% equity/55% fixed income in either Vanguard Target Retirement or ...
by pascalwager
Mon Nov 19, 2018 3:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 754
Views: 98464

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

Visualguy, Vanguard started its go-global push in 2014, suggesting a minimum of 20% international—but, in this white paper, observing diminishing returns after 30%. Good question, when did 40% become the de facto new normal? https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/ISGGEB.pdf Smectym I don't know when , b...
by pascalwager
Sun Nov 18, 2018 11:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2 Fund Ports: Everything You NEED?
Replies: 32
Views: 3606

Re: 2 Fund Ports: Everything You NEED?

BND or BNDW is too much duration for a retiree. As a retiree, I like 100% ST TIPS right now, but more generally: IT TIPS/ST corporate or IT TIPS/ST Treasuries. (Even as a worker, I wouldn't own a fund over five years maturity unless it had inflation protection.) It sounds like what you're saying is...
by pascalwager
Sat Nov 17, 2018 9:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS yield curve oddity
Replies: 22
Views: 1481

Re: Dropping TIPS?

TIPS tend to be more volatile than nominal Treasuries. This caught many Bogleheads members by surprise in 2008, even though the volatility was normal given the average duration. If I understand correctly, this caused some prominent members, including one of our leaders Taylor Larimore, to drop TIPS...
by pascalwager
Sat Nov 17, 2018 1:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)
Replies: 713
Views: 162762

Re: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)

If you are going to be doing backtests with the PP there's caveat you should take into consideration that many don't. The PP isn't just a portfolio like, say, the Three Fund Portfolio. It's more than that. It's also got the cash management system and emergency fund built into its 25% cash allocatio...
by pascalwager
Fri Nov 16, 2018 1:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2 Fund Ports: Everything You NEED?
Replies: 32
Views: 3606

Re: 2 Fund Ports: Everything You NEED?

With VT and BNDW available, you could now easily assemble Sharpe's World Bond/Stock (WBS) retiree's Risky Portfolio and then sell off part of it to purchase your Riskless Portfolio (TIPS or ST bonds depending on available tax-sheltered space). When I created mine last summer (2017) using Sharpe's RI...
by pascalwager
Thu Nov 15, 2018 10:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2 Fund Ports: Everything You NEED?
Replies: 32
Views: 3606

Re: 2 Fund Ports: Everything You NEED?

Note: Bill Sharpe probably approves of the new BNDW for his world market portfolio, but that portfolio is only a risk portfolio and is typically meant to be accompanied by a riskless portfolio of TIPS that match the retiree's liabilities.
by pascalwager
Thu Nov 15, 2018 10:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2 Fund Ports: Everything You NEED?
Replies: 32
Views: 3606

Re: 2 Fund Ports: Everything You NEED?

This is where investing gets interesting. The "seasoning". But "seasoning" is not FUNDAMENTAL. You LIKE short-term TIPS. I LIKE intermediate-term TIPS. Other retirees like a TIPS ladder. Others like long-term TIPS. The fact is BND, BNDX, and now BNDW are the default Boglehead bond ETFs. True, but I...
by pascalwager
Thu Nov 15, 2018 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2 Fund Ports: Everything You NEED?
Replies: 32
Views: 3606

Re: 2 Fund Ports: Everything You NEED?

This is where investing gets interesting. The "seasoning". But "seasoning" is not FUNDAMENTAL. You LIKE short-term TIPS. I LIKE intermediate-term TIPS. Other retirees like a TIPS ladder. Others like long-term TIPS. The fact is BND, BNDX, and now BNDW are the default Boglehead bond ETFs. Duration me...
by pascalwager
Thu Nov 15, 2018 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2 Fund Ports: Everything You NEED?
Replies: 32
Views: 3606

Re: 2 Fund Ports: Everything You NEED?

BND or BNDW is too much duration for a retiree. As a retiree, I like 100% ST TIPS right now, but more generally: IT TIPS/ST corporate or IT TIPS/ST Treasuries.

(Even as a worker, I wouldn't own a fund over five years maturity unless it had inflation protection.)
by pascalwager
Wed Nov 14, 2018 3:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 754
Views: 98464

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

Many here, and Jack Bogle too, collectively participate with other worldwide investors in determining the relative proportions of the US and international stock markets. So I've personally honored that collective determination by currently investing approximately 56% in US stocks and 44% in internat...
by pascalwager
Tue Nov 13, 2018 10:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I can't take this anymore=) I'm selling stocks and buying bonds!
Replies: 129
Views: 19715

Re: I can't take this anymore=) I'm selling stocks and buying bonds!

Seems like you need to permanently be in a 20/80 balanced fund for sanity preservation. Don't attempt to ignore the realities of your unique personal situation and emotional makeup. I've lost about $100,000 over the last few months, but I have 50% in safe assets (short-term bonds, money market, chec...
by pascalwager
Tue Nov 13, 2018 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversification Regret
Replies: 114
Views: 13473

Re: Diversification Regret

I have to agree with Taylor on this one, even though I am personally invested in more than just large cap US stocks, and into disproportionate amount of US Small Value, Mid-Caps, etc. The difference is I do know that I am not diversifying, and instead concentrating by having my own personal weighti...
by pascalwager
Tue Nov 13, 2018 1:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VGTSX/VTSAX or Just The VTWSX?
Replies: 7
Views: 1284

Re: VGTSX/VTSAX or Just The VTWSX?

I continue to use the two fund approach over three accounts, but I do have a calculation set up to calculate the added cost if I were using the TWS fund in my two tax-sheltered accounts. Today, the added cost would be $1.02/day which I find significant. On the other hand, the more money that flows i...
by pascalwager
Tue Nov 13, 2018 6:36 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VGTSX/VTSAX or Just The VTWSX?
Replies: 7
Views: 1284

Re: VGTSX/VTSAX or Just The VTWSX?

There's virtually no difference between holding the global cap weights--currently about 50/50--in VGTSX/VTSAX versus holding VTWSX. The expense ratios are so low that I don't think the difference there matters either. The chief reason for holding VGTSX and VTSAX separately (as I do) is that you wan...
by pascalwager
Sun Nov 11, 2018 6:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's Your Fixed Income Strategy?
Replies: 89
Views: 8756

Re: What's Your Fixed Income Strategy?

As a retiree, I keep it short and safe: small checking account ($10k to $20k), Treasury money market, short-term TIPS, ultra short-term global bonds. I take plenty of risk in stocks.
by pascalwager
Sun Nov 11, 2018 6:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 754
Views: 98464

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

oldzey wrote:
Sun Nov 11, 2018 5:54 pm
I choose not to "diversify" my garden with weeds. :beer
Actually, I wish my international growth was a little more weedlike.
by pascalwager
Sat Nov 10, 2018 11:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversification Regret
Replies: 114
Views: 13473

Re: Diversification Regret

I regret being "diversified" in international. It's roughly correlated with domestic equities, but just doesn't rise as fast on the way up. It seems to drop just as fast, though. I read learned Bogleheads, led by the namesake himself, declaring that there is no justifiable reason to own internation...
by pascalwager
Sat Nov 10, 2018 11:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversification Regret
Replies: 114
Views: 13473

Re: Diversification Regret

When you invest in ONE all world all cap equity fund/ETF (e.g. VT) this worry is null and void. Bogleheads tend to view equities as USA, non-USA developed, and EM. Each one of those categories can be divided by size (large, mid, and small) and type (growth or value). When you buy and hold "the enti...
by pascalwager
Sat Nov 10, 2018 10:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's Your Fixed Income Strategy?
Replies: 89
Views: 8756

Re: What's Your Fixed Income Strategy?

As a retiree, I keep my FI short. Most of it is in a 0.9 year duration global bond fund. The rest is split between a Treasury MMF and a ST TIPS fund.

The global bond fund has credit risk, but it's currently my best choice in the account.
by pascalwager
Sat Nov 10, 2018 9:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 18 topics badly explained by many Finance Professors
Replies: 15
Views: 2992

Re: 18 topics badly explained by many Finance Professors

In some cases, he seems to be adding to the bad explaining.
by pascalwager
Sat Nov 10, 2018 2:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman 2 Funds for Life
Replies: 41
Views: 7276

Re: Paul Merriman 2 Funds for Life

Total World is the way to go--or better yet, use the two Vanguard US and int'l total market funds: cheaper and more stocks. You can use the two index fact sheets to determine the last quarter ending market values and then go to Yahoo Historical Data to get the adjusted closing prices for the curren...
by pascalwager
Thu Nov 08, 2018 6:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Sharpe's preferred portfolio
Replies: 133
Views: 28497

Re: Bill Sharpe's preferred portfolio

BNDW is a fund of two funds: A US bond fund and an int'l bond fund. Some of the data on the BNDW screens is confusing. They show TBM (US) component as 46.70% and elsewhere show US allocations as 59.4%. Also, last month, a VG article mentioned something like 56/44 int'l/US for BNDW. I wonder if Vangu...
by pascalwager
Thu Nov 08, 2018 1:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman 2 Funds for Life
Replies: 41
Views: 7276

Re: Paul Merriman 2 Funds for Life

I'm wondering whether Total World + Small Cap Value isn't a better blend? it would get rid of the 10% bonds that the long target date funds have. I realize it would not adjust automatically with time, but that could easily be accommodated by introducing a total bond market or intermediate treasury ...
by pascalwager
Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's everyone currently in?
Replies: 93
Views: 8222

Re: What's everyone currently in?

My signature provides a good overview. The (DFA) tilted stock portions are mature and would be difficult to change, and as a retiree I like short-term fixed income. I don't pay any operational attention or respond to the markets regarding volatility, etc. I'm already set up to survive (I think). The...
by pascalwager
Sat Nov 03, 2018 11:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Small Value Still A Winner?
Replies: 96
Views: 7046

Re: Market-Weight in U.S. Stocks

Diversifying across Value and Growth, Small and Large should give you a less volatile portfolio. You can't get this with a Total Market Index, you need to tilt to get factor diversification. Bogleheads: Sorry, I disagree. Total Stock Market Index Funds ALREADY hold the U.S. market weight in Value, ...
by pascalwager
Sat Nov 03, 2018 10:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Small Value Still A Winner?
Replies: 96
Views: 7046

Re: Is Small Value Still A Winner?

I believe all the factors are stronger in small stocks: value stronger in small, momentum stronger in small, profitability stronger in small. People have argued whether or not there is a risk premium associated with size. I believe there is. Whether there is or not though, one could rationally tilt...
by pascalwager
Sat Nov 03, 2018 10:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Small Value Still A Winner?
Replies: 96
Views: 7046

Re: Is Small Value Still A Winner?

Regarding Telltale Charts, since it was brought up, I thought I should point out if anyone else is interested in them that if you create an account on PortfolioVisualizer.com and upload a custom asset that has 0% return , you can then use the ' Backtest Portfolio ' feature to create your own "Tellt...
by pascalwager
Fri Nov 02, 2018 10:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: David Swensen Unconventional Success
Replies: 99
Views: 8859

Re: David Swensen Unconventional Success

The Swensen book portfolio is a reference portfolio, not a one-size fits all. For example, if you own a home, you might reduce the REIT as you're not paying rent and would need less inflation protection. So maybe there isn't really a "Swensen portfolio". Trouble is, if you reduce the REIT too much, ...