Search found 1539 matches

by pascalwager
Mon Oct 07, 2019 3:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Reality check
Replies: 21
Views: 2737

Re: Reality check

Thanks for taking the time to respond. At this point I see 3 responses to my post. All of these basically say to use low cost index funds. A couple refer to the risks of investing heavily in small cap stocks and possible downturns. And of course, the question of why anyone would spend money on an a...
by pascalwager
Mon Oct 07, 2019 1:47 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: All in on VT?
Replies: 30
Views: 4467

Re: All in on VT?

I do the "50/50 version" using total US and total non-US index funds. Total world index won't work for my accounts. I could, of course, just set my two funds to world market ratio, but I've always been roughly 50/50 and probably shouldn't change now. But total world index is a simple, easy, and sens...
by pascalwager
Thu Oct 03, 2019 10:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Retirees - do you hold extra cash for a bear market?
Replies: 93
Views: 9205

Re: Retirees - do you hold extra cash for a bear market?

Why would it be “mental accounting” to hold enough cash to get you through a stock market decline without needing to sell stocks? Sure, reasonable people can argue whether it’s a good idea. But “mental accounting?” Because maintaining a fixed asset allocation results in selling from equity when equ...
by pascalwager
Thu Oct 03, 2019 10:27 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Retirees - do you hold extra cash for a bear market?
Replies: 93
Views: 9205

Re: Retirees - do you hold extra cash for a bear market?

Why would it be “mental accounting” to hold enough cash to get you through a stock market decline without needing to sell stocks? Sure, reasonable people can argue whether it’s a good idea. But “mental accounting?” Because maintaining a fixed asset allocation results in selling from equity when equ...
by pascalwager
Wed Oct 02, 2019 10:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Know when to hold them and when to fold them......
Replies: 148
Views: 12924

Re: Know when to hold them and when to fold them......

Let's suppose, just suppose... your 40% or equities is near $400K and you look at M* (Morningstar) and see the last 5 years performance of Total International is 3.16% averaged as of yesterday, and Total US is 10.42% Have you changed or rethought your international exposure lately and what did you ...
by pascalwager
Wed Oct 02, 2019 8:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Retirees - do you hold extra cash for a bear market?
Replies: 93
Views: 9205

Re: Retirees - do you hold extra cash for a bear market?

by pascalwager » Tue Oct 01, 2019 3:55 pm If you don't rebalance, how will you keep the portfolio at your desired risk level? If stocks do poorly one year (I don't mean a crash), you may need to sell fixed income and buy more stocks to maintain your AA. Otherwise, you begin to treat your fixed inco...
by pascalwager
Wed Oct 02, 2019 6:16 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Retirees - do you hold extra cash for a bear market?
Replies: 93
Views: 9205

Re: Retirees - do you hold extra cash for a bear market?

Why would it be “mental accounting” to hold enough cash to get you through a stock market decline without needing to sell stocks? Sure, reasonable people can argue whether it’s a good idea. But “mental accounting?” Because maintaining a fixed asset allocation results in selling from equity when equ...
by pascalwager
Wed Oct 02, 2019 4:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Retirees - do you hold extra cash for a bear market?
Replies: 93
Views: 9205

Re: Retirees - do you hold extra cash for a bear market?

Why would it be “mental accounting” to hold enough cash to get you through a stock market decline without needing to sell stocks? Sure, reasonable people can argue whether it’s a good idea. But “mental accounting?” Because maintaining a fixed asset allocation results in selling from equity when equ...
by pascalwager
Tue Oct 01, 2019 10:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Retirees - do you hold extra cash for a bear market?
Replies: 93
Views: 9205

Re: Retirees - do you hold extra cash for a bear market?

The cash may not be available however the bonds are available for rebalancing and the results should be the same as a portfolio with some bonds of zero duration. Do you have a reference to Estrada's study. How can the results be the same if the cash is external to the portfolio and not available fo...
by pascalwager
Tue Oct 01, 2019 5:59 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Retirees - do you hold extra cash for a bear market?
Replies: 93
Views: 9205

Re: Retirees - do you hold extra cash for a bear market?

Since cash is fixed income with zero duration how can it be that a portfolio in the range of 40 to 100% stocks, which is rebalanced annually, seems to be superior to a portfolio with 1 to 5 years of external cash? Because the cash has been removed from the portfolio balancing process and is not, th...
by pascalwager
Tue Oct 01, 2019 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long Term Bond Funds from age 70 to 80?
Replies: 12
Views: 1298

Re: Long Term Bond Funds from age 70 to 80?

joe8d wrote:
Mon Sep 30, 2019 8:24 pm
At age 77,I don't even buy green bananas.
I'm also 77 and I do buy green bananas. Why? Because they contain healthy resistant starch which might extend my life long enough to be able to enjoy a few ripe ones, too.
by pascalwager
Tue Oct 01, 2019 2:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Retirees - do you hold extra cash for a bear market?
Replies: 93
Views: 9205

Re: Retirees - do you hold extra cash for a bear market?

Very interesting. It is interesting, and required a lot of careful thought and planning; but it may still be sub-optimal. Estrada showed, in his portfolio studies, that a retirement portfolio actually becomes less productive when you remove cash/bonds from the general rebalancing process. The optim...
by pascalwager
Tue Oct 01, 2019 2:55 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Retirees - do you hold extra cash for a bear market?
Replies: 93
Views: 9205

Re: Retirees - do you hold extra cash for a bear market?

Post by pascalwager » Tue Oct 01, 2019 12:20 am When you say "X years of expenses", that implies being external to your portfolio and not part of the rebalancing process. Being a part of your portfolio means that the cash is not X years of expenses, but rather some fixed percentage of your portfoli...
by pascalwager
Mon Sep 30, 2019 11:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Retirees - do you hold extra cash for a bear market?
Replies: 93
Views: 9205

Re: Retirees - do you hold extra cash for a bear market?

The intent of the CDs, MM, and treasury funds is not to optimize, it is to sleep well and prevent bad behavior (selling equities in a down market as a panicked reaction). I do not consider the X years of expenses to be external to my portfolio, but part of the fixed income allocation. When you say ...
by pascalwager
Mon Sep 30, 2019 11:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Retirees - do you hold extra cash for a bear market?
Replies: 93
Views: 9205

Re: Retirees - do you hold extra cash for a bear market?

From the context of the OP, I am assuming that you mean holding cash to keep from selling equities when they are low and not the idea of "dry powder" to purchase equities when they are low. I am getting ready to start month 10 of my retirement and DW is still working (until the end of this year), s...
by pascalwager
Mon Sep 30, 2019 3:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Water company damaged driveway while directional boring under (acknowledged damage), how to proceed?
Replies: 16
Views: 1336

Re: Water company damaged driveway while directional boring under (acknowledged damage), how to proceed?

A company damaged a large section of my concrete driveway once using heavy equipment. They offered to replace the whole thing or saw cut and partially replace it. I allowed them to do the latter to avoid a lot of complications (carport stanchions, ground/container plants, removable porch, utilities,...
by pascalwager
Mon Sep 30, 2019 3:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Retirees - do you hold extra cash for a bear market?
Replies: 93
Views: 9205

Re: Retirees - do you hold extra cash for a bear market?

From the context of the OP, I am assuming that you mean holding cash to keep from selling equities when they are low and not the idea of "dry powder" to purchase equities when they are low. I am getting ready to start month 10 of my retirement and DW is still working (until the end of this year), s...
by pascalwager
Sun Sep 29, 2019 8:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Cash - Throw it all on the table!!!
Replies: 181
Views: 30947

Re: Cash - Throw it all on the table!!!

Curious how many Bogleheads simply have one, and only one bank account such as checking and treat it as an operating account like a business. Yields are not great but the simplicity is an advantage. Yes, same checking account since 1980. No fees, no yield. It's used for checks and (instantaneous) t...
by pascalwager
Sun Sep 29, 2019 1:30 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you wash berries?
Replies: 71
Views: 4137

Re: Do you wash berries?

I wash/rinse all fruits and vegetables before eating. Otherwise I wouldn't eat them. Water might not remove oil-based chemicals but probably washes away parasites and their eggs and lots of other things I don't want to ingest. However, nature provides some natural protection against food-borne bacte...
by pascalwager
Sun Sep 29, 2019 1:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Cash - Throw it all on the table!!!
Replies: 181
Views: 30947

Re: Cash - Throw it all on the table!!!

Curious how many Bogleheads simply have one, and only one bank account such as checking and treat it as an operating account like a business. Yields are not great but the simplicity is an advantage. Yes, same checking account since 1980. No fees, no yield. It's used for checks and (instantaneous) t...
by pascalwager
Sat Sep 28, 2019 11:57 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Retirees - do you hold extra cash for a bear market?
Replies: 93
Views: 9205

Re: Retirees - do you hold extra cash for a bear market?

I don't keep cash for bear market use, but I do have about $45k in a money market fund for unspecified use. Now, as it dwindles, I may gradually keep it at a lower amount. My bank checking account receives monthly pension income which covers my living expenses, so I rarely need to sell out of my por...
by pascalwager
Thu Sep 26, 2019 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long Term Bond Funds from age 70 to 80?
Replies: 12
Views: 1298

Re: Long Term Bond Funds from age 70 to 80?

Just to be clear, you would not pick a fund with a duration equal to your life expectancy. You would look for a fund with a duration equal to the duration of your spending needs through life expectancy. With rates low, life expectancy divided by two is a very rough approximation. Someone who is 70 ...
by pascalwager
Thu Sep 26, 2019 9:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long Term Bond Funds from age 70 to 80?
Replies: 12
Views: 1298

Re: Long Term Bond Funds from age 70 to 80?

Hello to fellow Vanguard investors, Anthony Webb from the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College makes the case for investing in long term bonds early in retirement. ("The Case for Investing in Bonds in Retirement" August 2009). He says that households "should focus less on the market val...
by pascalwager
Tue Sep 24, 2019 2:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Downsides to leaving fixed-income allocation in cash?
Replies: 68
Views: 4300

Re: Downsides to leaving fixed-income allocation in cash?

From the discussion here seems like following statements mean market timing for bond: If I create an investment policy saying go with the highest yield as long as duration is less than X years. Increase duration only if yield is Y%/year higher for every year increase in duration. I like both parts ...
by pascalwager
Mon Sep 23, 2019 12:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simulating Buffet's Recommended Portfolio
Replies: 6
Views: 1151

Re: Simulating Buffet's Recommended Portfolio

You should review the Estrada study on the Buffet 90/10 portfolio. He describes three different ways to withdraw money, including two "twists", T1 and T2.
by pascalwager
Thu Sep 19, 2019 4:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Downsides to leaving fixed-income allocation in cash?
Replies: 68
Views: 4300

Re: Downsides to leaving fixed-income allocation in cash?

From the discussion here seems like following statements mean market timing for bond: If I create an investment policy saying go with the highest yield as long as duration is less than X years. Increase duration only if yield is Y%/year higher for every year increase in duration. I like both parts ...
by pascalwager
Thu Sep 19, 2019 1:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Spreadsheets
Replies: 77
Views: 5911

Re: Spreadsheets

I have a Google spreadsheet and it's very important to me. It continuously evolves over the years and it's my preferred mechanism for viewing, understanding and confirming my investment portfolio. I don't care about performance, but I do need to know a lot of percentages and values. Most of the valu...
by pascalwager
Wed Sep 18, 2019 1:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are TIPS really a good inflation hedge? Pros and Cons
Replies: 138
Views: 7928

Re: Are TIPS really a good inflation hedge? Pros and Cons

So now at age 77, if I assume living and redeeming until 99--that's a 22 year span. Using the above calculation method, I get an investment horizon of 11.5 years. That compares to my current SS life expectancy of ten years. So, my present overall bonds duration of 6.8 years is not ideal. Not that y...
by pascalwager
Tue Sep 17, 2019 9:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are TIPS really a good inflation hedge? Pros and Cons
Replies: 138
Views: 7928

Re: Are TIPS really a good inflation hedge? Pros and Cons

If annual distributions are the same, you want the average duration of your duration-matching bond fund portfolio to be 1/2 the duration of your planned investment horizon at the point you begin taking the distributions. I’m not sure where this notion of “1/2 duration” is coming from, but it’s not ...
by pascalwager
Tue Sep 17, 2019 9:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are TIPS really a good inflation hedge? Pros and Cons
Replies: 138
Views: 7928

Re: Are TIPS really a good inflation hedge? Pros and Cons

One important addendum to the bond fund duration-matching strategy is that your average duration target should actually be = Investment Horizon / 2. This rule of thumb generally comes from people who either don't know how to properly calculate the investment horizon or who are making unacknowledged...
by pascalwager
Tue Sep 17, 2019 3:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are TIPS really a good inflation hedge? Pros and Cons
Replies: 138
Views: 7928

Re: Are TIPS really a good inflation hedge? Pros and Cons

I can understand buying an individual bond with a maturity date based on some particular target date in order to meet a liability on that date. I just don't get buying a bond fund with a duration based on some date (such as life expectancy) because there's really no liability target date. If there ...
by pascalwager
Mon Sep 16, 2019 9:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are TIPS really a good inflation hedge? Pros and Cons
Replies: 138
Views: 7928

Re: Are TIPS really a good inflation hedge? Pros and Cons

Perhaps this is why Vanguard has changed its Target Retirement funds' allocations from holding TIPS to holding ST TIPS. ST TIPS are still TIPS. All maturities of TIPS are TIPS. The only difference is the duration/maturity. Vanguard used ST TIPS rather than IT TIPS to reduce the overall fixed income...
by pascalwager
Sun Sep 15, 2019 4:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are TIPS really a good inflation hedge? Pros and Cons
Replies: 138
Views: 7928

Re: Are TIPS really a good inflation hedge? Pros and Cons

I do like having an investment that protects against inflation, but I'm not a fan of TIPS. Why? I don't see the attraction unless you want more holdings in inflation protected bonds than I Bonds could provide. I don't hold bonds to protect against inflation, I believe our allocation of 50% equities...
by pascalwager
Sun Sep 15, 2019 4:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are TIPS really a good inflation hedge? Pros and Cons
Replies: 138
Views: 7928

Re: Are TIPS really a good inflation hedge? Pros and Cons

Perhaps this is why Vanguard has changed its Target Retirement funds' allocations from holding TIPS to holding ST TIPS. ST TIPS are still TIPS. All maturities of TIPS are TIPS. The only difference is the duration/maturity. Vanguard used ST TIPS rather than IT TIPS to reduce the overall fixed income...
by pascalwager
Sat Sep 14, 2019 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 290
Views: 19009

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

Here's the thing about long term TIPS. According to Vanguard, the correlation of long TIPs with CPI inflation has been -0.05 based on monthly returns; i.e., a long term TIPS funds offers nada inflation protection, at least over the short to intermediate term. How come? Well, the returns from long T...
by pascalwager
Thu Sep 12, 2019 11:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bond fund in taxable account
Replies: 28
Views: 4216

Re: Bond fund in taxable account

I actually emailed the CFP and asked him to call me back to explain his logic on this very question. When he explained, I thought his main reason was to allow for selling bonds from a certain maturity depending on performance at the time of sale. If, for example, interest rates were falling, limite...
by pascalwager
Mon Sep 09, 2019 3:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bond fund in taxable account
Replies: 28
Views: 4216

Re: Bond fund in taxable account

I actually emailed the CFP and asked him to call me back to explain his logic on this very question. When he explained, I thought his main reason was to allow for selling bonds from a certain maturity depending on performance at the time of sale. If, for example, interest rates were falling, limite...
by pascalwager
Mon Sep 09, 2019 3:51 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bond fund in taxable account
Replies: 28
Views: 4216

Re: Bond fund in taxable account

To my surprise, the Vanguard CFP advised against holding my state specific vanguard long-term municipal bond fund. He cautioned against state specific diversification risk, because of the overall fewer number of bonds. Instead, he suggested that in our taxable account, we hold the three vanguard mu...
by pascalwager
Thu Sep 05, 2019 3:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3 fund people how are you feeling?
Replies: 112
Views: 12993

Re: 3 fund people how are you feeling?

I'm actually a 4-funder. I own TSM, TIS, TBM, and IPS (TIPS). I haven't read the 3-fund book, but it wouldn't be prudent in my retiree situation to avoid TIPS for the sake of maximum simplicity. As an investor I don't care about feelings, but I believe I have a diversified portfolio of global stocks...
by pascalwager
Wed Sep 04, 2019 11:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3 fund people how are you feeling?
Replies: 112
Views: 12993

Re: 3 fund people how are you feeling?

I keep seeing the title of this thread and thinking that one of the main objectives of the Boglehead style of investing is to take "feeling" out of the equation. Feeling or emotion is typically the arch-enemy of successful investing. Yes, it's important to separate feelings from investment decision...
by pascalwager
Wed Sep 04, 2019 10:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation Protected Securities: When to Get in, not How
Replies: 64
Views: 3856

Re: Inflation Protected Securities: When to Get in, not How

Rob5TCP wrote:
Wed Sep 04, 2019 7:28 am
With I Bonds yielding .5% real return, I would purchase those for my first $10,000 (or $20,000 if married)
and then TIPS above that.

The I Bonds are very likely to go down after 10/31; maybe back to 0%.
Good to know. I may buy $10k toward the end of September.
by pascalwager
Wed Sep 04, 2019 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation Protected Securities: When to Get in, not How
Replies: 64
Views: 3856

Re: Inflation Protected Securities: When to Get in, not How

I'm a retiree and consider TIPS prudent for my situation, so I don't bother to compare them to nominal bonds for relative value.
by pascalwager
Wed Sep 04, 2019 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those who have bonds in taxable, why and which ones?
Replies: 42
Views: 3539

Re: For those who have bonds in taxable, why and which ones?

I have an IT TIPS fund in taxable to maximize my TIPS holdings.
by pascalwager
Tue Sep 03, 2019 11:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you consider your house as part of your bond portfolio?
Replies: 52
Views: 2362

Re: Do you consider your house as part of your bond portfolio?

I don't consider my owned house an investment asset and certainly not a bond.
by pascalwager
Mon Sep 02, 2019 4:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review - BAM Portfolio
Replies: 94
Views: 7052

Re: Portfolio Review - BAM Portfolio

I have a 1995 taxable-account DFA stock grouping (LV, microcap, ILV, ISC, EM) which I've self-managed since late 2011. My int'l DFA funds have lost a lot of ground to the US DFA funds; but I'm not allowed to rebalance internally, so I stay at 50/50, US/int'l by combining the DFA funds with Vanguard ...
by pascalwager
Sun Sep 01, 2019 1:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 290
Views: 19009

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

A few years back there was a poster here, jerry_lee who pretty much took the exact opposite side of the coin from vineviz, pointing out that the post-1999 timeframe has been very unique and should be considered an anomaly. e.g. https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=99591#p1440660 https:/...
by pascalwager
Wed Aug 28, 2019 8:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Alternatives to BIV? Return too low?
Replies: 36
Views: 1817

Re: Alternatives to BIV? Return too low?

As part of IPS, I was following advice given on this forum: "Never sell bond to buy stock, only sell stock to buy bond". So if stocks crash, I do nothing and patiently wait for it to come back. Otherwise, annual rebalancing based on selected allocation. If this advice was given, it was likely not m...
by pascalwager
Tue Aug 27, 2019 2:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Alternatives to BIV? Return too low?
Replies: 36
Views: 1817

Re: Alternatives to BIV? Return too low?

However it's the advice I got on this forum that changed my perspective on investing in the first place and got me to set up a boglehead-style portfolio that I believe will allow me to live my dreams. Yes, pretty preposterous posters provided previous perspectives persistently. I wouldn't use the w...
by pascalwager
Tue Aug 27, 2019 1:42 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does anyone use TIPS mutual funds for 100% of their LMP allocation?
Replies: 61
Views: 3441

Re: Does anyone use TIPS mutual funds for 100% of their LMP allocation?

But none of these authors provide any details on how to provide a "pseudo" TIPS ladder using TIPS funds. It's worth nothing that these authors don't generally instruct on how to construct a TIPS ladder with the bonds that actually exist. There are no TIPS that are maturing in 2031 or in 2033 to 203...
by pascalwager
Sun Aug 25, 2019 3:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does anyone use TIPS mutual funds for 100% of their LMP allocation?
Replies: 61
Views: 3441

Re: Does anyone use TIPS mutual funds for 100% of their LMP allocation?

I am considering using TIPS mutual funds for 100% of my LMP allocation. Does anyone out there do this? My hesitation is the volatility in TIPS mutual funds. I am unable to purchase TIPS directly in my 401 accounts. I don't see how you can liability match with a fund. The main idea behind liability ...