Search found 1359 matches

by pascalwager
Fri Feb 22, 2019 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ruminations on Taleb's "Antifragile" and its Applications to Retirement Income
Replies: 68
Views: 4969

Re: Ruminations on Taleb's "Antifragile" and its Applications to Retirement Income

In an interview article, Taleb also made a connection between the barbell concept and his exercise habits: a lot of long daily walks around NYC and the occasional intense weightlifting session. Or normal eating to appetite interrupted by the occasional fast. Personally, this idea shows up in my dail...
by pascalwager
Thu Feb 21, 2019 2:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to use Vanguard Portfolio Watch for rebalancing
Replies: 106
Views: 63982

Re: How to use Vanguard Portfolio Watch for rebalancing

Google Sheets works well for me and has for years. It imports fund prices and allows me to calculate percentages. No pie charts (that I know of), but I don't need them. I use Google Sheets as well and it definitely does have pie charts. I love it for the ability to import prices and then display my...
by pascalwager
Wed Feb 20, 2019 11:48 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: No emergency fund?
Replies: 32
Views: 1777

Re: No emergency fund?

I've kept between $200k and $250k+ in cash for a long time. I just think of it as secure money to cover the great unknown.
by pascalwager
Wed Feb 20, 2019 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will Vanguard Factor Funds Survive?
Replies: 22
Views: 1772

Re: Will Vanguard Factor Funds Survive?

On Vanguard's main website, they're hidden even better than the funds that track specific indices. They aren't hard to find at all. They have a minimum investment over $25,000 so, like of all Vanguard's funds with a minimum like that, you have to click the button saying "show me funds with a minimu...
by pascalwager
Wed Feb 20, 2019 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: rebalancing during decumulation phase
Replies: 49
Views: 3105

Re: rebalancing during decumulation phase

About half of my stocks are total US and non-US market index funds and the other half is a taxable tilted-type account that I can't and don't re-balance internally, although I'd like to be able to do so. But I've become satisfied to allow random stock movement take it's course between large, small, ...
by pascalwager
Wed Feb 20, 2019 10:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do you think of this portfolio? (not mine)
Replies: 26
Views: 1924

Re: What do you think of this portfolio? (not mine)

youngpleb wrote:
Tue Feb 19, 2019 9:59 pm
Haha the 1% in cash made me laugh. Why in the heck...
The 1% cash is used to extract the quarterly management fee of 0.25%.
by pascalwager
Tue Feb 19, 2019 4:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bucket strategy fails according to study
Replies: 17
Views: 2887

Re: Bucket strategy fails according to study

Seems like their issues with bucketing can be solved by using two “buckets”: A cash bucket with X years of spending, and a 60/40 balanced fund that does the rebalancing for you, that you refill your cash bucket with periodically. No, the cash bucket in the case you've described is the problem. If t...
by pascalwager
Mon Feb 18, 2019 11:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to use Vanguard Portfolio Watch for rebalancing
Replies: 106
Views: 63982

Re: How to use Vanguard Portfolio Watch for rebalancing

I wondered if Portfolio Watch would flag me when I exchanged all of my bonds into money market funds. Right now, PW shows 52% stocks, 0% bonds, 48% short-term assets, and no bond-related flags.
by pascalwager
Sun Feb 17, 2019 5:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Split the Equity allocation 50% US / 50% International
Replies: 55
Views: 7619

Re: Split the Equity allocation 50% US / 50% International

I have 30% int'l, all factor-tilted; but if I were starting over, I would simply go with TSM or Large Cap Index, and maybe some large and small value. I'd exclude int'l because of the high correlation between domestic and foreign. They may be correlated but there is a wide dispersion of results. Th...
by pascalwager
Thu Feb 14, 2019 8:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why choose intermediate term treasury at this time?
Replies: 57
Views: 5305

Re: Why choose intermediate term treasury at this time?

When comparing an intermediate term treasury fund, such as SCHR, with a short term treasury fund, such as SCHO, is there any reason to prefer the intermediate term fund if the yields are the same for both funds? In general, an accumulator should use a short-term fund--even a MMF right now due to th...
by pascalwager
Thu Feb 14, 2019 6:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why choose intermediate term treasury at this time?
Replies: 57
Views: 5305

Re: Why choose intermediate term treasury at this time?

When comparing an intermediate term treasury fund, such as SCHR, with a short term treasury fund, such as SCHO, is there any reason to prefer the intermediate term fund if the yields are the same for both funds? In general, an accumulator should use a short-term fund--even a MMF right now due to th...
by pascalwager
Wed Feb 13, 2019 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why choose intermediate term treasury at this time?
Replies: 57
Views: 5305

Re: Why choose intermediate term treasury at this time?

But Larry cautions people to remember that higher maturities mean higher correlations with stocks. I don't recall this. I thought it was generally accepted that long Treasuries gave the most negative correlation with stocks during stock market declines. Longer term corporates correlation with stock...
by pascalwager
Tue Feb 12, 2019 9:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why choose intermediate term treasury at this time?
Replies: 57
Views: 5305

Re: Why choose intermediate term treasury at this time?

If I'm reading this correctly pascalwager and Kevin M like short term or very short term treasuries They work well with high state tax states especially....because one doesn't pay state tax on treasuries. pascalwager likes Vang. Treasury MMF...maybe that is Prime Money Market...VMMXX?...I don't see...
by pascalwager
Tue Feb 12, 2019 1:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why choose intermediate term treasury at this time?
Replies: 57
Views: 5305

Re: Why choose intermediate term treasury at this time?

I am ever so happy right now in VFIRX, Vanguard Short-Term Treasury Fund, with a duration of about two years. I do worry a tiny, tiny bit about this seeming to be a "crowded trade" these days, suggesting that Mr. Market might have a rise in intermediate term rates in store for the near future. But ...
by pascalwager
Tue Feb 12, 2019 1:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why choose intermediate term treasury at this time?
Replies: 57
Views: 5305

Re: Why choose intermediate term treasury at this time?

Today I exchanged all of my Treasury bond funds into money market funds--mostly the safer Treasury type but also Prime where necessary. So, now I'm at 52% stocks and 48% cash with zero bonds. I don't expect to ever exceed 2-years bond fund maturity again. Maybe Vang Fed MM...VMFXX Expense .11, 49% ...
by pascalwager
Tue Feb 12, 2019 3:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why choose intermediate term treasury at this time?
Replies: 57
Views: 5305

Re: Why choose intermediate term treasury at this time?

Today I exchanged all of my Treasury bond funds into money market funds--mostly the safer Treasury type but also Prime where necessary. If the yield spreads improve sufficiently in the future, then I'll easily move most of it into short-term Treasury funds--possibly bar-belling with money markets to...
by pascalwager
Mon Feb 11, 2019 6:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why choose intermediate term treasury at this time?
Replies: 57
Views: 5305

Re: Why choose intermediate term treasury at this time?

Since nobody knows anything about the future, I'd decide on the duration depending on my time horizon. If you're investing for the long term, I'd definitely go with SCHR. For similar reasoning about the unknown future I model my FI portfolio on the Barclays Capital U.S. Intermediate Government/Cred...
by pascalwager
Mon Feb 11, 2019 2:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why choose intermediate term treasury at this time?
Replies: 57
Views: 5305

Re: Why choose intermediate term treasury at this time?

The 20 bps criterion is arbitary and comes from DFA and their variable maturity approach to setting bond fund maturity (as per Gene Fama). In his bond book, Larry recommends using bonds for ballast in the accumulation stage and then, perhaps, stretching for yield in retirement--but in keeping with ...
by pascalwager
Sun Feb 10, 2019 10:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why choose intermediate term treasury at this time?
Replies: 57
Views: 5305

Re: Why choose intermediate term treasury at this time?

Larry Swedroe has a rule of thumb that 1 year of duration should be compensated by 20 bps of yield. There is a delta of 3 years duration and he would want 60 bps to compensate, but you get 3 bps here. So it badly fails that test. Following that strictly, it would make sense to invest in Vanguard's ...
by pascalwager
Sat Feb 09, 2019 7:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you are old, why bother with rebalancing!!?
Replies: 114
Views: 7642

Re: If you are old, why bother with rebalancing!!?

I'm 76 and I'll definitely re-balance between US and int'l stocks in the "future". I've never had any direct experience re-balancing between stocks and bonds--my former advisor used to do this for my small bond AA prior to 2012. But I have re-allocated between stocks and bonds a few times in recent ...
by pascalwager
Fri Feb 08, 2019 5:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you are old, why bother with rebalancing!!?
Replies: 114
Views: 7642

Re: If you are old, why bother with rebalancing!!?

But, behavior trumps logic in real life. Some investors might agree with this analysis yet be unable to rebalance, even with a 23/77 stocks/bonds portfolio. Personally, I think that 23% in stocks is too low. To deal with this behavioral problem, I would suggest to simply invest the money into a con...
by pascalwager
Fri Feb 08, 2019 2:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VWELX, VWINX, or VBIAX ?
Replies: 17
Views: 1330

Re: VWELX, VWINX, or VBIAX ?

Also, understand that these are nearly US-only funds, although Wellesley has 5% non-US stocks. If you were building your own portfolio, would you exclude non-US stocks? If so, then these funds might do the job for you, while also considering Taylor's reservations.
by pascalwager
Thu Feb 07, 2019 6:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you are old, why bother with rebalancing!!?
Replies: 114
Views: 7642

Re: If you are old, why bother with rebalancing!!?

On page 168 of "Investor's Manifesto", Bill Bernstein discusses why, for a retiree, it may not be wise to re-balance back into stocks after a steep stock decline. Simply, rebalancing could consume bond reserves needed during a prolonged period of dismal stock performance. When a retiree is worried ...
by pascalwager
Thu Feb 07, 2019 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you are old, why bother with rebalancing!!?
Replies: 114
Views: 7642

Re: If you are old, why bother with rebalancing!!?

On page 168 of "Investor's Manifesto", Bill Bernstein discusses why, for a retiree, it may not be wise to re-balance back into stocks after a steep stock decline. Simply, rebalancing could consume bond reserves needed during a prolonged period of dismal stock performance.
by pascalwager
Tue Feb 05, 2019 4:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Insights from Norway's $1 Trillion Fund Manager
Replies: 60
Views: 6314

Re: Insights from Norway's $1 Trillion Fund Manager

I don't have a lot in common with the Norwegian fund. A trillion dollars fund has huge exposure to US equity and bond markets. If you don't think this impacts you then you're doing well by sticking to passive investments (which don't really exist, apparently). :mrgreen: I actually agree that you ca...
by pascalwager
Sun Feb 03, 2019 5:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: investing in short term treasury vs CDs
Replies: 17
Views: 1551

Re: investing in short term treasury vs CDs

The Vanguard Treasury Money Market Fund (2.32% yield) is actually a better deal than the Short-Term Treasury Fund (2.51% yield) because the increase in yield is only 10.5 basis points per year of increased duration when using the short-term fund.
by pascalwager
Sun Feb 03, 2019 4:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Insights from Norway's $1 Trillion Fund Manager
Replies: 60
Views: 6314

Re: Insights from Norway's $1 Trillion Fund Manager

From Investopedia: Active management/investing tries to beat a benchmark index or return. Passive management/investing tries to replicate a benchmark index. The Norway fund, with 250 managers, is obviously active. I wonder what the benchmark looks like. From what I've seen, the expenses are very low...
by pascalwager
Thu Jan 31, 2019 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Opportunity Cost of [Holding] an Emergency Fund [in Cash/Bonds]
Replies: 60
Views: 3839

Re: Opportunity Cost of an Emergency Fund

I would measure the opportunity cost of an emergency fund by comparing it to bonds, not stocks. Bonds have a higher return from cash, without that much more risk. And unless your investments are 100% stock, you can get more stock-market return (and risk) without touching your emergency fund, by sel...
by pascalwager
Wed Jan 30, 2019 10:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An emergency fund cautionary tale
Replies: 89
Views: 10427

Re: An emergency fund cautionary tale

I consider cash as another basic diversifier. It provides lower opportunity (returns) than bonds, but with lower volatility. For retirees, Jonathan Clements recommends no less than 20% cash and minimum five-years living expenses. That means 60/20/20 or 50/30/20 as a cash minimum . David Swensen reco...
by pascalwager
Wed Jan 30, 2019 9:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BNDW not trackable in Google Finance
Replies: 10
Views: 1108

Re: BNDW not trackable in Google Finance

You're correct. GoogleFinance doesn't input BNDW prices. I tried it. My own portfolio Google price inputs arrive after 10:30 pm, but in the past used to arrive before 6 pm--so that has changed too. I have four funds which don't even have ticker symbols, so I need to get the daily values from my Vang...
by pascalwager
Wed Jan 30, 2019 9:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FIRECalc, do you accept their assumption?
Replies: 91
Views: 7029

Re: FIRECalc, do you accept their assumption?

the only assumption I question is why they default to a "couch potato" 75% stocks and 25% bonds? I just realized there are tabs and you can change the inputs (hadn't used the tool before so wasn't aware of the adjustments you can make), but why a 75/25 portfolio as the default? It would seem better...
by pascalwager
Tue Jan 29, 2019 11:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FIRECalc, do you accept their assumption?
Replies: 91
Views: 7029

Re: FIRECalc, do you accept their assumption?

the only assumption I question is why they default to a "couch potato" 75% stocks and 25% bonds? I just realized there are tabs and you can change the inputs (hadn't used the tool before so wasn't aware of the adjustments you can make), but why a 75/25 portfolio as the default? It would seem better...
by pascalwager
Tue Jan 29, 2019 1:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What was your first Vanguard fund or ETF?
Replies: 72
Views: 2820

Re: What was your first Vanguard fund or ETF?

The Vanguard STAR Fund (VGSTX) . Ten years ago, I signed up with an Ameriprise advisor. The fund was liquidated in exchange for Ameriprise funds. A few years later, I fired my Ameriprise advisory and went with a Vanguard lazy portfolio. There's nothing wrong with the STAR fund. If I had left good e...
by pascalwager
Tue Jan 29, 2019 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What was your first Vanguard fund or ETF?
Replies: 72
Views: 2820

Re: What was your first Vanguard fund or ETF?

My first Vanguard fund was the California Tax-Exempt Money Market Fund in 2007.
by pascalwager
Sun Jan 27, 2019 10:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bypass Morningstar mobile site?
Replies: 7
Views: 658

Re: Bypass Morningstar mobile site?

I have the M* app on my iPad, but don't use it. I use the Safari site which seems more functional. For example, the size/style box on the app doesn't show the daily % changes.
by pascalwager
Sun Jan 27, 2019 3:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BHers, what is your Roth IRA %?
Replies: 137
Views: 7734

Re: BHers, what is your Roth IRA %?

My Roth IRA: 6% of portfolio.
by pascalwager
Fri Jan 25, 2019 10:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three-Fund Portfolio
Replies: 2406
Views: 1507471

Re: The Three-Fund Portfolio

I've gotten closer to a 3-fund portfolio recently by doing an account exchange between fund management entities, but I do have one very mature taxable account* that has a size/value design which I never change in any way. This account is 53% of my equities, but the remaining 47% is in total market U...
by pascalwager
Fri Jan 25, 2019 10:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three-Fund Portfolio
Replies: 2406
Views: 1507471

Re: The Three-Fund Portfolio

I only use TBM in a barbell (60/40) with a MMF to reduce duration. And I only use TBM if a Treasury fund(s) is(are) not available. I do understand that the increased duration of TBM (6.0 years), compared to the past, is determined by the average investor, but I'm definitely not that average investor.
by pascalwager
Fri Jan 25, 2019 1:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small-cap tilt
Replies: 24
Views: 1796

Re: Small-cap tilt

Total Stock Market 17%
Large Value 24%
Microcap 10%
Total International Stock 30%
International Value 12%
International Small Co. 6%
Emerging Markets 2%
by pascalwager
Wed Jan 23, 2019 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock for U.S. retirees?
Replies: 19
Views: 1784

Re: How much international stock for U.S. retirees?

Age 76, I've decided to stick with 50/50--too late to change after 2 1/2 decades. Vanguard says that 30% to 50% is reasonable, but I think that Vanguard may be heading towards a market cap AA in their TD and LS funds. In about 1996 or so, my former advisor (investment company) gave me the choice of ...
by pascalwager
Mon Jan 21, 2019 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is using an Asset Allocation Mental Accounting?
Replies: 46
Views: 2146

Re: Is using an Asset Allocation Mental Accounting?

Maybe I am not addressing what you were saying but to me to just say you are for example 60/40 and assume that carries the same risk for a $10,000 portfolio as it does for a $10,000,000 is not correct. I'm curious why you don't think it's correct. The risk associated with a 60/40 portfolio is the s...
by pascalwager
Sat Jan 19, 2019 2:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 307
Views: 16371

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

Is this how the 12 month moving average was calculated? 2018 unemployment data Jan 4.1 Feb 4.1 Mar 4.0 Apr 3.9 May 3.8 June 4.0 July 3.9 Aug 3.8 Sep 3.7 Oct 3.8 Nov 3.7 Dec 3.9 Average rounds to 3.89 If some of the numbers used above were rounded down (e.g. 4.14 to 4.1) and December's 3.9 had been ...
by pascalwager
Thu Jan 17, 2019 2:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Total World Stock (VTWAX) and All-World ex-US Small Cap Admiral Shares (VFSAX) now available (February 7)
Replies: 174
Views: 17770

Re: Vanguard Total World Stock and All-World ex-US Small Cap Admiral Shares should launch February 5

The reality of the nature of my five accounts is that I could/would probably only use TWS in my Roth, so I'll probably just stick with 50/50 US/int'l overall.
by pascalwager
Thu Jan 17, 2019 2:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Betterment's Egan Cashflow
Replies: 7
Views: 583

Re: Betterment's Egan Cashflow

I don't think I need to bucket to the extent that Egan does, but I found his implementation interesting and surprising. I also read about the Betterment SuperSaver fund which includes two short-term bond funds. Given present short-term interest rates, I think my Treasury Money Market Fund will suffi...
by pascalwager
Thu Jan 17, 2019 1:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Microcap add diversification to Total Stock Market Index fund?
Replies: 20
Views: 1686

Re: Does Microcap add diversification to Total Stock Market Index fund?

I've held the DFA Microcap Fund (DFSCX) for over two decades and it's been my best performer. Maybe it's microcap in name only: deciles 9-10, but at least, no mid-caps. Correlation to US Market: 0.82. So, I guess it adds some diversification, but not a lot. It's 10% of my stock portfolio, but then T...
by pascalwager
Wed Jan 16, 2019 11:37 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Boglehead investing - Portugal
Replies: 6
Views: 677

Re: Boglehead investing - Portugal

hi, Personally I would try and follow a plain vanilla diversified portfolio which would not show any home bias, there are lots of threads on here about that. I would look at EM markets and perhaps small caps as a diversification, and you just need to check whatever global fund you choose to check i...
by pascalwager
Wed Jan 16, 2019 2:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wrong about international bonds?
Replies: 26
Views: 2626

Re: Wrong about international bonds?

I used DFA short-term bond funds for over two decades with no problems whatsoever, and they were jam-packed with foreign bonds--government and corporate. The only problem I have with the Vanguard int'l bond fund is the longer duration, so I don't use it. But that might not bother a young accumulator...
by pascalwager
Tue Jan 15, 2019 5:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Dirt Simple Wins Again. Couch Potato Portfolio"
Replies: 20
Views: 4454

Re: "Dirt Simple Wins Again. Couch Potato Portfolio"

Bogleheads: Scott Burns has been a financial columnist advocating "Simplicity" for more than 40 years. Mr. Burns was a significant influence in my development of The Three-Fund Portfolio . This is Scott's latest article about the continuing success of his famous Couch Potato Portfolio . Dirt Simple...
by pascalwager
Tue Jan 15, 2019 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Dirt Simple Wins Again. Couch Potato Portfolio"
Replies: 20
Views: 4454

Re: "Dirt Simple Wins Again. Couch Potato Portfolio"

The Scott Burns article isn't about the three-fund portfolio, but is about the two-fund portfolio: total US stocks and a bond fund. The three-fund would be too-complex, too-diversified, and too-under-performing for his taste--or so it appears. This is a little confusing. Burns used to sell very comp...
by pascalwager
Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to use Vanguard Portfolio Watch for rebalancing
Replies: 106
Views: 63982

Re: How to use Vanguard Portfolio Watch for rebalancing

Google Sheets works well for me and has for years. It imports fund prices and allows me to calculate percentages. No pie charts (that I know of), but I don't need them. Re-balancing makes me think a little and that's probably good. If Google didn't import prices then I'd be forced to use PW or M*, ...