Search found 1248 matches

by pascalwager
Mon Nov 19, 2018 4:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Target Retirement/Life Strategy vs 4 Fund DIY balancing
Replies: 6
Views: 737

Re: Vanguard Target Retirement/Life Strategy vs 4 Fund DIY balancing

Bogleheads, After two years of contemplation, information ,and advice from mostly Boglehead choir sources, I am trying to make a decision between placing my retirement nest egg (age 68) at my decided present allocation decision of 45% equity/55% fixed income in either Vanguard Target Retirement or ...
by pascalwager
Mon Nov 19, 2018 3:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 462
Views: 80410

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

Visualguy, Vanguard started its go-global push in 2014, suggesting a minimum of 20% international—but, in this white paper, observing diminishing returns after 30%. Good question, when did 40% become the de facto new normal? https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/ISGGEB.pdf Smectym I don't know when , b...
by pascalwager
Sun Nov 18, 2018 11:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2 Fund Ports: Everything You NEED?
Replies: 16
Views: 1641

Re: 2 Fund Ports: Everything You NEED?

BND or BNDW is too much duration for a retiree. As a retiree, I like 100% ST TIPS right now, but more generally: IT TIPS/ST corporate or IT TIPS/ST Treasuries. (Even as a worker, I wouldn't own a fund over five years maturity unless it had inflation protection.) It sounds like what you're saying is...
by pascalwager
Sat Nov 17, 2018 9:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS yield curve oddity
Replies: 22
Views: 1360

Re: Dropping TIPS?

TIPS tend to be more volatile than nominal Treasuries. This caught many Bogleheads members by surprise in 2008, even though the volatility was normal given the average duration. If I understand correctly, this caused some prominent members, including one of our leaders Taylor Larimore, to drop TIPS...
by pascalwager
Sat Nov 17, 2018 1:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)
Replies: 706
Views: 161007

Re: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)

If you are going to be doing backtests with the PP there's caveat you should take into consideration that many don't. The PP isn't just a portfolio like, say, the Three Fund Portfolio. It's more than that. It's also got the cash management system and emergency fund built into its 25% cash allocatio...
by pascalwager
Fri Nov 16, 2018 1:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2 Fund Ports: Everything You NEED?
Replies: 16
Views: 1641

Re: 2 Fund Ports: Everything You NEED?

With VT and BNDW available, you could now easily assemble Sharpe's World Bond/Stock (WBS) retiree's Risky Portfolio and then sell off part of it to purchase your Riskless Portfolio (TIPS or ST bonds depending on available tax-sheltered space). When I created mine last summer (2017) using Sharpe's RI...
by pascalwager
Thu Nov 15, 2018 10:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2 Fund Ports: Everything You NEED?
Replies: 16
Views: 1641

Re: 2 Fund Ports: Everything You NEED?

Note: Bill Sharpe probably approves of the new BNDW for his world market portfolio, but that portfolio is only a risk portfolio and is typically meant to be accompanied by a riskless portfolio of TIPS that match the retiree's liabilities.
by pascalwager
Thu Nov 15, 2018 10:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2 Fund Ports: Everything You NEED?
Replies: 16
Views: 1641

Re: 2 Fund Ports: Everything You NEED?

This is where investing gets interesting. The "seasoning". But "seasoning" is not FUNDAMENTAL. You LIKE short-term TIPS. I LIKE intermediate-term TIPS. Other retirees like a TIPS ladder. Others like long-term TIPS. The fact is BND, BNDX, and now BNDW are the default Boglehead bond ETFs. True, but I...
by pascalwager
Thu Nov 15, 2018 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2 Fund Ports: Everything You NEED?
Replies: 16
Views: 1641

Re: 2 Fund Ports: Everything You NEED?

This is where investing gets interesting. The "seasoning". But "seasoning" is not FUNDAMENTAL. You LIKE short-term TIPS. I LIKE intermediate-term TIPS. Other retirees like a TIPS ladder. Others like long-term TIPS. The fact is BND, BNDX, and now BNDW are the default Boglehead bond ETFs. Duration me...
by pascalwager
Thu Nov 15, 2018 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2 Fund Ports: Everything You NEED?
Replies: 16
Views: 1641

Re: 2 Fund Ports: Everything You NEED?

BND or BNDW is too much duration for a retiree. As a retiree, I like 100% ST TIPS right now, but more generally: IT TIPS/ST corporate or IT TIPS/ST Treasuries.

(Even as a worker, I wouldn't own a fund over five years maturity unless it had inflation protection.)
by pascalwager
Wed Nov 14, 2018 3:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 462
Views: 80410

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

Many here, and Jack Bogle too, collectively participate with other worldwide investors in determining the relative proportions of the US and international stock markets. So I've personally honored that collective determination by currently investing approximately 56% in US stocks and 44% in internat...
by pascalwager
Tue Nov 13, 2018 10:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I can't take this anymore=) I'm selling stocks and buying bonds!
Replies: 101
Views: 13758

Re: I can't take this anymore=) I'm selling stocks and buying bonds!

Seems like you need to permanently be in a 20/80 balanced fund for sanity preservation. Don't attempt to ignore the realities of your unique personal situation and emotional makeup. I've lost about $100,000 over the last few months, but I have 50% in safe assets (short-term bonds, money market, chec...
by pascalwager
Tue Nov 13, 2018 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversification Regret
Replies: 114
Views: 13172

Re: Diversification Regret

I have to agree with Taylor on this one, even though I am personally invested in more than just large cap US stocks, and into disproportionate amount of US Small Value, Mid-Caps, etc. The difference is I do know that I am not diversifying, and instead concentrating by having my own personal weighti...
by pascalwager
Tue Nov 13, 2018 1:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VGTSX/VTSAX or Just The VTWSX?
Replies: 6
Views: 925

Re: VGTSX/VTSAX or Just The VTWSX?

I continue to use the two fund approach over three accounts, but I do have a calculation set up to calculate the added cost if I were using the TWS fund in my two tax-sheltered accounts. Today, the added cost would be $1.02/day which I find significant. On the other hand, the more money that flows i...
by pascalwager
Tue Nov 13, 2018 6:36 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VGTSX/VTSAX or Just The VTWSX?
Replies: 6
Views: 925

Re: VGTSX/VTSAX or Just The VTWSX?

There's virtually no difference between holding the global cap weights--currently about 50/50--in VGTSX/VTSAX versus holding VTWSX. The expense ratios are so low that I don't think the difference there matters either. The chief reason for holding VGTSX and VTSAX separately (as I do) is that you wan...
by pascalwager
Sun Nov 11, 2018 6:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's Your Fixed Income Strategy?
Replies: 89
Views: 8636

Re: What's Your Fixed Income Strategy?

As a retiree, I keep it short and safe: small checking account ($10k to $20k), Treasury money market, short-term TIPS, ultra short-term global bonds. I take plenty of risk in stocks.
by pascalwager
Sun Nov 11, 2018 6:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 462
Views: 80410

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

oldzey wrote:
Sun Nov 11, 2018 5:54 pm
I choose not to "diversify" my garden with weeds. :beer
Actually, I wish my international growth was a little more weedlike.
by pascalwager
Sat Nov 10, 2018 11:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversification Regret
Replies: 114
Views: 13172

Re: Diversification Regret

I regret being "diversified" in international. It's roughly correlated with domestic equities, but just doesn't rise as fast on the way up. It seems to drop just as fast, though. I read learned Bogleheads, led by the namesake himself, declaring that there is no justifiable reason to own internation...
by pascalwager
Sat Nov 10, 2018 11:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversification Regret
Replies: 114
Views: 13172

Re: Diversification Regret

When you invest in ONE all world all cap equity fund/ETF (e.g. VT) this worry is null and void. Bogleheads tend to view equities as USA, non-USA developed, and EM. Each one of those categories can be divided by size (large, mid, and small) and type (growth or value). When you buy and hold "the enti...
by pascalwager
Sat Nov 10, 2018 10:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's Your Fixed Income Strategy?
Replies: 89
Views: 8636

Re: What's Your Fixed Income Strategy?

As a retiree, I keep my FI short. Most of it is in a 0.9 year duration global bond fund. The rest is split between a Treasury MMF and a ST TIPS fund.

The global bond fund has credit risk, but it's currently my best choice in the account.
by pascalwager
Sat Nov 10, 2018 9:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 18 topics badly explained by many Finance Professors
Replies: 15
Views: 2937

Re: 18 topics badly explained by many Finance Professors

In some cases, he seems to be adding to the bad explaining.
by pascalwager
Sat Nov 10, 2018 2:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman 2 Funds for Life
Replies: 41
Views: 7104

Re: Paul Merriman 2 Funds for Life

Total World is the way to go--or better yet, use the two Vanguard US and int'l total market funds: cheaper and more stocks. You can use the two index fact sheets to determine the last quarter ending market values and then go to Yahoo Historical Data to get the adjusted closing prices for the curren...
by pascalwager
Thu Nov 08, 2018 6:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Sharpe's preferred portfolio
Replies: 133
Views: 28377

Re: Bill Sharpe's preferred portfolio

BNDW is a fund of two funds: A US bond fund and an int'l bond fund. Some of the data on the BNDW screens is confusing. They show TBM (US) component as 46.70% and elsewhere show US allocations as 59.4%. Also, last month, a VG article mentioned something like 56/44 int'l/US for BNDW. I wonder if Vangu...
by pascalwager
Thu Nov 08, 2018 1:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman 2 Funds for Life
Replies: 41
Views: 7104

Re: Paul Merriman 2 Funds for Life

I'm wondering whether Total World + Small Cap Value isn't a better blend? it would get rid of the 10% bonds that the long target date funds have. I realize it would not adjust automatically with time, but that could easily be accommodated by introducing a total bond market or intermediate treasury ...
by pascalwager
Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's everyone currently in?
Replies: 93
Views: 8096

Re: What's everyone currently in?

My signature provides a good overview. The (DFA) tilted stock portions are mature and would be difficult to change, and as a retiree I like short-term fixed income. I don't pay any operational attention or respond to the markets regarding volatility, etc. I'm already set up to survive (I think). The...
by pascalwager
Sat Nov 03, 2018 11:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Small Value Still A Winner?
Replies: 96
Views: 6949

Re: Market-Weight in U.S. Stocks

Diversifying across Value and Growth, Small and Large should give you a less volatile portfolio. You can't get this with a Total Market Index, you need to tilt to get factor diversification. Bogleheads: Sorry, I disagree. Total Stock Market Index Funds ALREADY hold the U.S. market weight in Value, ...
by pascalwager
Sat Nov 03, 2018 10:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Small Value Still A Winner?
Replies: 96
Views: 6949

Re: Is Small Value Still A Winner?

I believe all the factors are stronger in small stocks: value stronger in small, momentum stronger in small, profitability stronger in small. People have argued whether or not there is a risk premium associated with size. I believe there is. Whether there is or not though, one could rationally tilt...
by pascalwager
Sat Nov 03, 2018 10:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Small Value Still A Winner?
Replies: 96
Views: 6949

Re: Is Small Value Still A Winner?

Regarding Telltale Charts, since it was brought up, I thought I should point out if anyone else is interested in them that if you create an account on PortfolioVisualizer.com and upload a custom asset that has 0% return , you can then use the ' Backtest Portfolio ' feature to create your own "Tellt...
by pascalwager
Fri Nov 02, 2018 10:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: David Swensen Unconventional Success
Replies: 99
Views: 8729

Re: David Swensen Unconventional Success

The Swensen book portfolio is a reference portfolio, not a one-size fits all. For example, if you own a home, you might reduce the REIT as you're not paying rent and would need less inflation protection. So maybe there isn't really a "Swensen portfolio". Trouble is, if you reduce the REIT too much, ...
by pascalwager
Fri Nov 02, 2018 6:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: David Swensen Unconventional Success
Replies: 99
Views: 8729

Re: David Swensen Unconventional Success

I was a diehard fan of Swensen and implemented his portfolio for 15+ years and CONSISTENTLY UNDER PERFORMED the 3 fund portfolio BY A STAGGERING 200% over 15 years. Few years ago I redid my portfolio in a simple 2 fund format - Total stock market + Intermediate Bonds. Swensen is outdated, as is his...
by pascalwager
Thu Nov 01, 2018 3:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Core-4 Investing is LIVE! It really is this time!
Replies: 134
Views: 10208

Re: Rick Ferri's new Core-4 (6 versions) Website

Core-4 sounds simple enough, but 6 portfolios with 4 flavors of each. Far from simple. Staying the course in your selected core-4 portfolio seems like it might be an issue. Then you have taxable to tax-sheltered differences. Less is more and more is less? The 3 fund or 4 fund with Total US, Total I...
by pascalwager
Thu Nov 01, 2018 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: David Swensen Unconventional Success
Replies: 99
Views: 8729

Re: David Swensen Unconventional Success

I had hoped that Unconventional Success would have been updated since it was published in 2005. The flip side would be perhaps nothing has changed. Tough to know what would be updated. Fixed Income: Without new regulations of some kind, it is clear he would never, ever, use corporate bonds. I guess...
by pascalwager
Wed Oct 31, 2018 10:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Core-4 Investing is LIVE! It really is this time!
Replies: 134
Views: 10208

Re: Core-4 Investing is LIVE! It really is this time!

Rick, I'm already enjoying studying your new website material (the link worked just fine for me) although I have a personal aversion to REITs and intermediate-term bonds, and like loads of cash. Anyway, it looks like an interesting and thought-provoking resource. Glad to see you active again in inve...
by pascalwager
Wed Oct 31, 2018 12:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman 2 Funds for Life
Replies: 41
Views: 7104

Re: Paul Merriman 2 Funds for Life

He came out with a 2 Fund portfolio. https://paulmerriman.com/2-funds-for-life/ Basically it's 1.5 X your age in a TDF, and the remaining in SCV. How do I invest 115 % in a TDF? :confused I didn't listen to the podcast so I assume my answer is there. :oops: At age 76 (me too), you would be 100% TDF...
by pascalwager
Tue Oct 30, 2018 11:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman 2 Funds for Life
Replies: 41
Views: 7104

Re: Paul Merriman 2 Funds for Life

Merriman's classic Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio had 10 different asset classes each held at a 10% weighting with considerable slants to value and size factors. I haven't listened to his podcast but this portfolio seems much less complex in comparison. For those of us who are older, as CABob poin...
by pascalwager
Fri Oct 12, 2018 1:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment grade bonds now made up of 50% BBB rated
Replies: 26
Views: 2804

Re: Investment grade bonds now made up of 50% BBB rated

Is the ST TIPS fund a suitable holding in a taxable account? No. You get taxed on both the interest and inflation adjustment. However, that's just the net gain, so it isn't an extra disadvantage. If you have $10K in TIPS with a 1% yield, and inflation is 3%, then after one year, you will have $10,4...
by pascalwager
Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When will you backup the truck on stocks
Replies: 102
Views: 9879

Re: When will you backup the truck on stocks

If TWS gets back down to $27.55, I might reduce my bond allocation a bit.
by pascalwager
Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard website problems [Transactions won't go through, 500 error...]
Replies: 101
Views: 4848

Re: Vanguard website problems [Transactions won't go through, 500 error...]

I made a large exchange this evening and everything looks normal.
by pascalwager
Wed Oct 10, 2018 8:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment grade bonds now made up of 50% BBB rated
Replies: 26
Views: 2804

Re: Investment grade bonds now made up of 50% BBB rated

TBM holds no BBB rated bonds and almost 2/3 of its bonds are backed by the US government. Its corporate bond exposure sticks with investment grade. TBM's default risk is well controlled IMO but it does have duration risk (ave. duration 6.1 yrs. which is why its YTD return is -2.52%). No reason for ...
by pascalwager
Wed Oct 10, 2018 1:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where is that value premium?
Replies: 57
Views: 4178

Re: Where is that value premium?

So explain again why there is so much emphasis put to tilting to small cap value instead of small cap growth? I can easily imagine someone reasonable owning a blend fund. I must admit that I'm curious who owns growth funds and why? I don't know who owns them, but John Cochrane says the proper owner...
by pascalwager
Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Splitting two Bond Funds
Replies: 2
Views: 371

Re: Splitting two Bond Funds

Regardless of the (misleading?) benchmarks, both funds (actual and proxies) are thoroughly global in nature and mainly hold corporate debt--but with a smaller amount of govt debt. The one-year fund holds only about 4 or 5% US Treasuries (and other sovereign debt)--I've examined the holdings. So both...
by pascalwager
Mon Oct 08, 2018 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Splitting two Bond Funds
Replies: 2
Views: 371

Splitting two Bond Funds

I've got access to two DFA bond funds in a VA account and I've been splitting them 50/50 for duration reduction. Then recently I noticed that the one-year fund SEC yield is now much greater than the four-year fund: 2.30% vs 1.24%. It's also now passing up the longer-term fund on TTM yield. Some advi...
by pascalwager
Wed Oct 03, 2018 8:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [WSJ] The ‘Dumb’ Money Is Bailing on U.S. Stocks. That’s Smart.
Replies: 52
Views: 6686

Re: [WSJ] The ‘Dumb’ Money Is Bailing on U.S. Stocks. That’s Smart.

Invest using Vanguard Total World ETF (VT) and you won't have to micromanage your US/INT mood swings. Current US market allocation is 54.9%. +1 For me these U.S. vs International threads are pure entertainment now. Kick back with some popcorn. Waiting for the Jack and Warren "said so" comments to s...
by pascalwager
Mon Oct 01, 2018 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does Vanguard reccomend 60:40 US:International ratio?
Replies: 52
Views: 7771

Re: Why does Vanguard reccomend 60:40 US:International ratio?

Also, Vanguard has stated that they believe in being invested in the actual world stock market percentages, which is currently about 55/45. So, maybe they'll put their beliefs into action in the future with respect to their TR and LS funds, etc.
by pascalwager
Sun Sep 30, 2018 5:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Treasuries Market vs Intermediate Treasuries vs Total Bond Market
Replies: 111
Views: 6699

Re: Total Treasuries Market vs Intermediate Treasuries vs Total Bond Market

No, and it might not matter to most workers your age or younger if they plan to retire in their mid-sixties. The analogy I'm thinking of is TBM. In a standard accumulation stage, 3-fund portfolio, nobody seems to worry about interest rate risk or the fluctuating duration of TBM because of the role ...
by pascalwager
Sun Sep 30, 2018 4:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Treasuries Market vs Intermediate Treasuries vs Total Bond Market
Replies: 111
Views: 6699

Re: Total Treasuries Market vs Intermediate Treasuries vs Total Bond Market

No, and it might not matter to most workers your age or younger if they plan to retire in their mid-sixties. The analogy I'm thinking of is TBM. In a standard accumulation stage, 3-fund portfolio, nobody seems to worry about interest rate risk or the fluctuating duration of TBM because of the role ...
by pascalwager
Sun Sep 30, 2018 3:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Treasuries Market vs Intermediate Treasuries vs Total Bond Market
Replies: 111
Views: 6699

Re: Total Treasuries Market vs Intermediate Treasuries vs Total Bond Market

In his book, Unconventional Success, he advocates using long-term Treasuries (as opposed to his email to Diehards), and 15/15 is just a starting point. He specifically discusses increasing either nominals or TIPS depending on the type of risk-reduction you want to emphasize The book specifically sa...
by pascalwager
Sun Sep 30, 2018 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Treasuries Market vs Intermediate Treasuries vs Total Bond Market
Replies: 111
Views: 6699

Re: Total Treasuries Market vs Intermediate Treasuries vs Total Bond Market

No, and it might not matter to most workers your age or younger if they plan to retire in their mid-sixties. The analogy I'm thinking of is TBM. In a standard accumulation stage, 3-fund portfolio, nobody seems to worry about interest rate risk or the fluctuating duration of TBM because of the role ...
by pascalwager
Sun Sep 30, 2018 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Treasuries Market vs Intermediate Treasuries vs Total Bond Market
Replies: 111
Views: 6699

Re: Total Treasuries Market vs Intermediate Treasuries vs Total Bond Market

No, and it might not matter to most workers your age or younger if they plan to retire in their mid-sixties.
by pascalwager
Sun Sep 30, 2018 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Treasuries Market vs Intermediate Treasuries vs Total Bond Market
Replies: 111
Views: 6699

Re: Total Treasuries Market vs Intermediate Treasuries vs Total Bond Market

Thoughts? Critiques? Know any specific assets that are total treasury market choices other than GOVT? Should I just hold TIPS instead? Swensen argues for 50/50 treasuries/tips. as far as the total treasury approach, i think is fine. 50/50 is just a starting point for Swensen. A young investor such ...