Search found 314 matches

by Plainsman
Fri Nov 07, 2008 2:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Likely Tax Changes and What (if anything) to Do About Them
Replies: 109
Views: 18497

Kenster1 wrote:That's not true -- I've heard both Capital Gains and Dividends being talked about too many times to count.
I will agree with you that there has been a great deal of talk about capital gains, but I will disagree with you that there has been any talk about qualified dividends.
by Plainsman
Thu Nov 06, 2008 10:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Likely Tax Changes and What (if anything) to Do About Them
Replies: 109
Views: 18497

A few observations: 1. The president-elect has not said anything about whether qualified dividends will maintain favorable tax treatment or will revert to ordinary income tax rate rates. This remains an unaddressed issue. 2. Raising the 33% and 35% marginal rates to 36% and 39.6% respectively under ...
by Plainsman
Wed Nov 05, 2008 5:01 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Higher Taxes - Strategies
Replies: 50
Views: 9094

All emotions aside, Does anyone know if its possible to put more than $45k/yr in tax deferred through an orgnaizations pension plan/tax deferred vehicle? I seem to remember someone posting something about a year ago but can't seem to find it. Thanks, Blue Section 415 defined contribution plan limit...
by Plainsman
Wed Nov 05, 2008 11:53 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Higher Taxes - Strategies
Replies: 50
Views: 9094

My condolences to all who have to eke out a bleak existence on a mere $250K+ a year. It breaks my heart that you may possibly have to pay a few percent more on all your marginal earnings over $250K...On the other hand, as some are apparently beginning to realize, a tax increase may actually be a fa...
by Plainsman
Mon Oct 27, 2008 5:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Willingness to take risk by Larry Swedroe
Replies: 17
Views: 4479

+1
by Plainsman
Mon Oct 27, 2008 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TLH
Replies: 2
Views: 1158

One proposal has been to increase the amount that can be used to offset OI from $3K to $15K annually.

To my knowledge there has been no talk of lowering or eliminating the $3K amount that can be used to offset OI.
by Plainsman
Mon Oct 27, 2008 3:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ttotal stock indexes at vang. and fidelity.....too similar?
Replies: 6
Views: 1750

Would be ok.

FSTMX follows the Willshire 5000 Index.

VTSMX follows the MSCI US Broad Market Index.

Different companies, different indexes; would not be a difficult argument to make that they are not "substantially similar."
by Plainsman
Fri Oct 24, 2008 8:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Heading for the exits . . .
Replies: 24
Views: 5271

most of the big money will already be on the sidelines by then....and will be looking to get back in....after the small guy gets out...or sometime thereafter. And why pray tell would you not want "big money" working for you? Roubini is predicting 30% of the hedge fund industry will be wip...
by Plainsman
Tue Oct 21, 2008 6:03 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Berkshire Hathaway meeting
Replies: 9
Views: 2610

nittybitty wrote:what does he sell? the idea of owning stock in berkshire or t-shirts and stuff?
See's candies, underwear from Fruit-of-the-Loom, furniture from Nebraska Furniture Mart, etc.
by Plainsman
Sat Oct 18, 2008 6:46 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Going All In
Replies: 69
Views: 15386

This doesn't seam like a long term plan, more like a short term tactical shift to take advantage of a potential opportunity. "Once in a lifetime" according to a savvy 18 year old I know... Agree. Bogle has been an advocate of "tactical asset allocation" when unique situations ar...
by Plainsman
Wed Oct 15, 2008 1:26 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 500 Index swap to Total Stock Market for TLH ?
Replies: 12
Views: 3329

Another choice to consider is Large Cap Index (VLACX). It is based on the MSCI US Prime Market 750 Index, which was intended to improve upon some of the limitations of the S&P 500 Index.
by Plainsman
Wed Oct 15, 2008 6:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How did we get here?
Replies: 57
Views: 10583

MP173, I find this to be a fairly polarizing issue. On the one hand are those that refuse to believe that the CRA of 1977, Fannie Mae, or Freddie Mac had anything to do with subprime lending and the current credit problem. This, despite the fact that Fannie and Freddie, whose credit standards were c...
by Plainsman
Tue Oct 14, 2008 9:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How did we get here?
Replies: 57
Views: 10583

The CRA was passed in 1977. To believe it was to blame, you have to come up with an argument for how it didn't hurt anything for 30 years yet all of a sudden in 2008 caused a major crisis. Banking in the 1970s, when CRA was passed, was a highly regulated industry in which small local banks provided...
by Plainsman
Tue Oct 14, 2008 9:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How did we get here?
Replies: 57
Views: 10583

Can you give a cite to an actual loan that a bank was "forced" to make because of the CRA? Here is an example of one community group, perhaps well-intentioned but acting under the protection of the umbrella of the CRA, contributing to the subprime mortgage problem... Bankers around the co...
by Plainsman
Tue Oct 14, 2008 8:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How did we get here?
Replies: 57
Views: 10583

Unwise (aka stupid) lending to unqualifed home buyers fueled by the Community Investment Act and cronies in congress. I am so tired of hearing this particular canard that I have to respond. The Community Reinvestment Act (note the correct name) had nothing to do with the current crisis... That is c...
by Plainsman
Tue Oct 14, 2008 4:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul B. Farrell's Lazy Portfolios
Replies: 3
Views: 2327

Paul B. Farrell's Lazy Portfolios

Paul B. Farrell, columnist for MarketWatch.com, has new online tracking of his compilation of "Lazy Portfolios" that will be updated and can be viewed daily. It is a very nice compilation of various index-fund based portfolios. LINK to Article LINK to MarketWatch.com Lazy Portfolio Center
by Plainsman
Mon Oct 13, 2008 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Krugman wins Nobel Prize in economics
Replies: 21
Views: 4970

Is this thread political yet? That certainly was not my intention. My hope was for people to look with a critical eye upon research that does not come from objective sources. It was more of a discussion of scientific method. We commonly see backtesting on this forum where data-mining is done and co...
by Plainsman
Mon Oct 13, 2008 6:05 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why do you need taxable funds?
Replies: 28
Views: 5442

Some view it is as a form of portfolio diversification. Social Security...who knows if it will actually be there for you; benefits are taxed. 401k/Traditional IRA...contribution limits; income limits for IRA; the government essentially owns a large portion of it because withdrawals are taxed as ordi...
by Plainsman
Sun Oct 12, 2008 4:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Time to stop investing and hoard cash?
Replies: 6
Views: 2024

I think the time to move to cash was exactly one year ago. It is too late now. In times like these, small time investors try to get cute and let emotion overshadow reason. That is when they make big mistakes. Keep investing.
by Plainsman
Sun Oct 12, 2008 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancers, beware!
Replies: 25
Views: 6378

RobertH: You are data mining somewhat (although I see why...your point is to demonstrate the minimal effect rebalancing has during a market downturn) and are ignoring diversification, as you use US Large Cap as your equity proxy. You also ignore what would have happened had an investor continued to ...
by Plainsman
Sun Oct 12, 2008 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax Rebates and paying income tax.
Replies: 30
Views: 5211

Re: SS benefits vs. Income

It is interesting that Buffet is crying crocodile tears about the unfairness of the tax system... He wasn't crying crocodile tears. He was illustrating the unfairness of how he gets a better break than the lady who empties the trash in his office. It was simply a statement of fact and a hint that m...
by Plainsman
Sun Oct 12, 2008 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What world leaders have announced so far
Replies: 7
Views: 1964

tfb wrote:
tdhg566 wrote:But Monday isn't a trading holiday is it? (i.e. trading will take place)
Here is Wall Street's 2008 schedule:

http://www.secform4.com/stock-market-holiday.htm
Yes the stock market will be open on Monday in the U.S.
...but the Bond market is closed in the U.S. on Monday.
by Plainsman
Sun Oct 12, 2008 11:24 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: berkshire hathaway
Replies: 13
Views: 2999

From Buffett himself: A share of Class B common stock has the rights of 1/30th of a share of Class A common stock except that a Class B share has 1/200th of the voting rights of a Class A share (rather than 1/30th of the vote). Each share of a Class A common stock is convertible at any time, at the ...
by Plainsman
Thu Oct 09, 2008 11:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone going Long on GM common stock *Now ?
Replies: 15
Views: 2927

The market is making it known that it does not think that GM will be around much longer. The days are numbered for both Ford and GM .
by Plainsman
Thu Oct 09, 2008 10:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Once in lifetime buying opportunity?
Replies: 53
Views: 11470

FWIW: Reports today that mutual fund redemptions are already in excess of $48B this week alone (compared with $9B last week). Such massive sell-offs are part of the capitulation process that forms a market bottom. My opinion is that wherever the bottom is formed, it will be a long one. Also, the mar...
by Plainsman
Thu Oct 09, 2008 11:49 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Switching to Cash May Feel Safe, but Risks Remain
Replies: 18
Views: 4299

Re: estimate

All of the items you mentioned will have an effect on return over time and they will help recover losses, but Adrian is simply presenting a quick an easy estimate of potential loss. I think you would have a very hard time coming up with a simple formula that includes all your variables to help a ne...
by Plainsman
Thu Oct 09, 2008 9:21 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Switching to Cash May Feel Safe, but Risks Remain
Replies: 18
Views: 4299

Maximum tolerable loss x 2 = Maximum equity allocation Count me in as one that does not like your "formula." You are taking the historical fact that during severe bear markets, major US stock market indexes have fallen as much as 50%. You are then extrapolating that fact and trying to app...
by Plainsman
Wed Oct 08, 2008 5:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Looming Credit Default Swap Crisis?
Replies: 5
Views: 1954

The October 13, 2008 issue of Fortune magazine has an excellent (and frightening) article about Credit Default Swaps entitled "The $55 Trillion Time Bomb."

The online table of contents is available, but not the article itself.

LINK
by Plainsman
Wed Oct 08, 2008 4:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Congress mulls major 401(k) changes
Replies: 57
Views: 10412

The savings rate for American citizens is not as high as Congress would like. So, eliminating the tax benefit for 401k's that allows for tax-deferred growth will improve savings for retirement...how? I love this quote: "The way the government now encourages 401(k) plans is to spend $80 billion ...
by Plainsman
Wed Oct 08, 2008 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads, et al: Are you REALLY Staying the Course? (POLL)
Replies: 60
Views: 12237

If one is going to change course (I interpret that to mean altering one's asset allocation): If one wants to shift more heavily to bonds, the time to do so would be after a big run up in equities (Oct 07). If one wants to shift more heavily to equities, the time to do so would be after a big sell of...
by Plainsman
Wed Oct 08, 2008 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How low will it go?
Replies: 35
Views: 6540

Watch the credit markets. The equity markets are not as relevant right now. Disagree. Up until recently, the equity markets have been reflective of the problems in the credit markets. However, the steep global sell-off over the last 1-2 weeks is more reflective of global markets coming to terms wit...
by Plainsman
Wed Oct 08, 2008 7:34 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: BOGLE COMING UP ON CNBC...
Replies: 1
Views: 1033

bump
by Plainsman
Wed Oct 08, 2008 7:00 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: BOGLE COMING UP ON CNBC...
Replies: 1
Views: 1033

BOGLE COMING UP ON CNBC...

For those watching CNBC they just announced that Jack will be a guest in the next hour 8am EDT / 7am CST this morning Wed Oct 8.
by Plainsman
Wed Oct 08, 2008 6:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FED CUTS BY 1/2 PT
Replies: 12
Views: 2699

The Bank of Japan, which didn't participate in the move, said it supported the action.
Japan's rates are already (and have been for quite some time) at 0.5%, so they effectively have no room to cut further.
by Plainsman
Tue Oct 07, 2008 9:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Enough!
Replies: 11
Views: 3106

"It's worth remembering a truism about market psychology that has been too often overlooked in recent weeks: When genuine capitulation finally takes place, few will recognize it as such at the time."

Mark Hulbert (MarketWatch)
by Plainsman
Tue Oct 07, 2008 4:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any Good Economic/Investment News?
Replies: 40
Views: 6741

The average bear market lasts 14 months peak to trough (we are 12 months into this one). The average bear market results in an average 30% market loss (S&P 500 is down 36% from Oct 2007 high). Recessions typically last 2-3 quarters (concensus currently is that GDP will turn negatve Q4 2008). The...
by Plainsman
Tue Oct 07, 2008 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Have all the shoes dropped?
Replies: 48
Views: 8545

The thinly regulated world of Credit Default Swaps is a potential ticking time bomb should we start seeing failures in the municipal bond market. It may be a long shot to occur, but the downside risk to banks, hedge funds, and other financial institutions holding CDS's is enormous.
by Plainsman
Tue Oct 07, 2008 8:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Allocation Thought
Replies: 5
Views: 1513

Most investors in the accumulation stage will typically assign a dollar amount to their cash allocation that reflects X months of emergency spending. Whether one includes that cash reserve in the fixed portion of one's allocation has been debated here many times before, and the general consensus is ...
by Plainsman
Tue Oct 07, 2008 7:59 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What will it take for you to buy stocks?
Replies: 53
Views: 12369

I just spoke with a colleague yesterday who is fairly investment savvy, but is still somewhat of a closet market timer. He has been hoarding cash since the first of the year, and told me that he has been "starting to nibble" over the past week.
by Plainsman
Mon Oct 06, 2008 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: capulation begins
Replies: 29
Views: 6865

We are currently about 34% below the market highs of Oct 2007.

Peak to trough 2000-2002 was -46%.

It has taken us 12 months to fall 34%. It took 2.5 years to fall 46% last time.

The bottom could be a lot deeper this time.
by Plainsman
Mon Oct 06, 2008 12:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: TLH - Clueless!
Replies: 3
Views: 1671

VWO & VEU ---> VEA, but will not have emerging markets exposure; note that it is typically recommended to swap VEU with an 80/20 combination of VEA/VWO and vice versa; could also use VGTSX VTI ---> VV VWO = Emerging Markets VEU = FTSE All-World ex-USA VEA = Europe Pacific VTI = TSM Index VV = La...
by Plainsman
Mon Oct 06, 2008 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: MA to eliminate state income tax?
Replies: 4
Views: 1497

Having lived most of my life in a no-state-income-tax state (the majority of revenue is aggressively collected via sales tax and through tourism) the ultimate result is a more fiscally responsible state legislature and streamlined budget. It is actually quite pleasant to watch a state government ope...
by Plainsman
Sat Oct 04, 2008 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roubini- The Risk of the Mother of All Bank Runs
Replies: 16
Views: 4137

I recall a few years back that the argument against raising the long-stagnant FDIC insurance limit was that people should be paying more attention to the financial health of the bank where they kept their money. Like anyone could tell. Like any other insurance, I would assume that increased level o...
by Plainsman
Fri Oct 03, 2008 5:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If everyone out there is selling, who's buying?
Replies: 38
Views: 7770

We are about 30% below the market highs of October 2007. Bear markets, on average, result in about a 30% decline in the stock markets. If you are a market timer, it is too late to sell now. Even if we have another 10% to the downside to go, I am still a buyer of equities right now. I also heard on T...
by Plainsman
Sat Sep 27, 2008 8:39 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VWITX do I take the loss and run?
Replies: 16
Views: 4958

Another consideration...from T. Rowe Price...
If you realize a loss on the sale or exchange of fund shares held six months or less, your capital loss is reduced by the tax-exempt dividends received on those shares.
by Plainsman
Sat Sep 27, 2008 8:23 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VWITX do I take the loss and run?
Replies: 16
Views: 4958

There have been a lot of threads and comments lately about how bonds have been doing poorly. Recent conditions are a good reminder that the whole risk/reward concept also applies to bonds. If one is unable to tolerate a 5% decline in one's bond fund, then one needs to go with a shorter duration or r...
by Plainsman
Sat Sep 27, 2008 8:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Borrow to Invest?
Replies: 49
Views: 10434

I'm not necessarily advocating this, but one ought to at least listen to and understand the argument in favor of investing on margin or borrowing to invest. If one has a very stable job that is not at risk during economic downturns (e.g. tenured professor, physician) then one has a large amount of h...
by Plainsman
Thu Sep 25, 2008 5:59 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to TLH a MMF?
Replies: 6
Views: 1864

Do you really think that a high profile money market fund would be allowed to break the buck when the goverment is now offering SIPC-like insurance on such funds? I doubt those running the fund would allow it to happen.
by Plainsman
Wed Sep 24, 2008 5:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Money Market Funds >>> Record Withdrawals
Replies: 12
Views: 3352

I think a MM fund failing is largely symbolic. Assume Vanguard's Tax-exempt MM fund has to close down and pays out $0.96 on the dollar. If one has $100,000 in the fund, then one has lost $4K. Hardly disasterous. Now with the federal insurance program covering MM funds, the risk is nil, at least for ...