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by james22
Fri Mar 08, 2024 9:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Announces CEO Retirement and Appointment of President
Replies: 372
Views: 36411

Re: Vanguard Announces CEO Retirement and Appointment of President

HanSolo wrote: Fri Mar 08, 2024 6:25 pm
Cheez-It Guy wrote: Fri Mar 08, 2024 6:08 pm
HanSolo wrote: Fri Mar 08, 2024 10:05 am
Cheez-It Guy wrote: Thu Mar 07, 2024 8:42 pm The meaning is known, although I thought that wasn't allowed per forum rules.
If it's known to some, they can clarify (stating facts about Vanguard's corporate behavior isn't against forum rules).
I am guessing this person didn't agree with certain ideological positions Vanguard took which were likely in conflict with their own.
OK. Still no clarification. Someone said it might be NZAM. Maybe. Who knows.
Yeesh.

No bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard? Here's why

[Naked link reformatted by moderator oldcomputerguy]
by james22
Mon Mar 04, 2024 8:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Announces CEO Retirement and Appointment of President
Replies: 372
Views: 36411

Re: Vanguard Announces CEO Retirement and Appointment of President

I was pretty unhappy when they changed the make-up of VGELX and VGPMX without warning.

Right before both Energy and Gold went on a tear.

So much for staying the course.
by james22
Sun Mar 03, 2024 11:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Announces CEO Retirement and Appointment of President
Replies: 372
Views: 36411

Re: Vanguard Announces CEO Retirement and Appointment of President

nisiprius wrote: Sun Mar 03, 2024 9:48 amIf, in fact, he was a) pushed out, b) because of something he wasn't doing well, what was it?
Seriously?

Were there any controversial decisions made recently?
by james22
Fri Mar 01, 2024 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Announces CEO Retirement and Appointment of President
Replies: 372
Views: 36411

Re: Vanguard Announces CEO Retirement and Appointment of President

The website and customer service issues aren't new.

Is it really a coincidence he's leaving just after having missed out on the most successful ETF launch in history?
by james22
Fri Mar 01, 2024 8:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Announces CEO Retirement and Appointment of President
Replies: 372
Views: 36411

Re: Vanguard Announces CEO Retirement and Appointment of President

donaldfair71 wrote: Fri Mar 01, 2024 3:29 am I’m probably wrong, but my first reaction to this was one where the direction goes even further from Bogle. One where Vanguard will begin to offer the full suite of speculative assets for which it doesn’t presently provide a platform.
:beer
by james22
Sat Dec 30, 2023 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Do You Like My New 'Doo
Replies: 445
Views: 106988

Re: How Do You Like My New 'Doo

nedsaid wrote: Wed Dec 27, 2023 8:56 pmI will read the articles you have linked to.
Might like these as well.

https://www.kitces.com/blog/research-re ... ket-timer/

https://www.kitces.com/blog/should-equi ... ly-better/
by james22
Fri Dec 29, 2023 9:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Concentration of Stock As Seen from Morningstar X-Ray tool
Replies: 5
Views: 918

Re: Concentration of Stock As Seen from Morningstar X-Ray tool

km91 wrote: Fri Dec 29, 2023 9:17 amApple is 50% of BRK ...
Apple makes up 48.4% of Berkshire's public equity portfolio but only 22.2% of the market cap of Berkshire Hathaway.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/12/ ... -hathaway/
by james22
Wed Dec 27, 2023 9:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Do You Like My New 'Doo
Replies: 445
Views: 106988

Re: How Do You Like My New 'Doo

Morik wrote: Wed Dec 27, 2023 4:24 pmI read the 2nd link, and they are assuming you have extra money outside the portfolio, but given that taking money out of portfolio to make a safety bucket is suboptimal, it must follow that it would be better to add that money to the portfolio rather than turning it into a safety bucket.
I.e., if you have $X in your portfolio, and $Y extra money that you could put into a cash wedge, this seems functionally identical to 'I have $(X+Y) money in the portfolio, would it benefit me to take $Y out of the portfolio to make into a cash wedge', to which the answer seems to be 'no'.
The difference between wedges being that one re-balances and one does not.

(The former either too small to help or too large a drag.)
by james22
Wed Dec 27, 2023 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Do You Like My New 'Doo
Replies: 445
Views: 106988

Re: How Do You Like My New 'Doo

I have thought about including a safety bucket in my plan, holding 3 years of withdrawals in short term bonds to give the portfolio time to recover after a bear market. Three years is insufficient to recover from a bear market: https://earlyretirementnow.com/2017/03/29/the-ultimate-guide-to-safe-withdrawal-rates-part-12-cash-cushion/ But the safety bucket is effective if in addition to the portfolio: https://earlyretirementnow.com/2018/05/23/the-ultimate-guide-to-safe-withdrawal-rates-part-25-more-flexibility-myths/ As a counterpoint, RR had an episode where they cover the 'cash wedge' (keeping 1-3 years expenses in cash and drawing from that when portfolio in drawdown, draw from portfolio/refill cash when portfolio doing well). https://ra...
by james22
Wed Dec 27, 2023 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Do You Like My New 'Doo
Replies: 445
Views: 106988

Re: How Do You Like My New 'Doo

nedsaid wrote: Tue Dec 26, 2023 9:47 amI have thought about including a safety bucket in my plan, holding 3 years of withdrawals in short term bonds to give the portfolio time to recover after a bear market.


Three years is insufficient to recover from a bear market:

https://earlyretirementnow.com/2017/03/ ... h-cushion/

But the safety bucket is effective if in addition to the portfolio:

https://earlyretirementnow.com/2018/05/ ... ity-myths/
by james22
Sat Dec 16, 2023 4:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any study that checked which stock category historically had higher probability of positive returns over 10 year periods
Replies: 6
Views: 1106

Re: Any study that checked which stock category historically had higher probability of positive returns over 10 year per

If you look back at the annual returns you’ll notice that consumer staples/defensive has only lost money 6 times over the last 40 years; and its worst year was a loss of 14%. It has a comparable risk level to long term treasuries yet an outperformance of 6% per year.

https://engineeredportfolio.com/2016/12 ... y-sectors/

Just don't look at it since.
by james22
Wed Dec 13, 2023 9:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing 100% into TQQQ
Replies: 231
Views: 36966

Re: Investing 100% into TQQQ

The case has been made here that OP should go "all in" on the strategy. Either they will hit their targets, or they will rebuild from scratch. Either way it will be a great experience for them. One study I remember showed that young investors should use 2x leverage in the stock market, because – statistically – even if you get wiped out you’re still likely to earn superior returns over time, as long as you dust yourself off and keep investing after a wipeout. Which, in the real world, no one would actually do. They’d swear off investing for life. What works on a spreadsheet and what works at the kitchen table are ten miles apart. https://collabfund.com/blog/the-psychology-of-money/ I think they would, in fact, do it. I have seen ...
by james22
Sat Dec 09, 2023 7:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing 100% into TQQQ
Replies: 231
Views: 36966

Re: Investing 100% into TQQQ

Valuethinker wrote: Sat Dec 09, 2023 11:54 amThe case has been made here that OP should go "all in" on the strategy.

Either they will hit their targets, or they will rebuild from scratch. Either way it will be a great experience for them.
One study I remember showed that young investors should use 2x leverage in the stock market, because – statistically – even if you get wiped out you’re still likely to earn superior returns over time, as long as you dust yourself off and keep investing after a wipeout. Which, in the real world, no one would actually do. They’d swear off investing for life. What works on a spreadsheet and what works at the kitchen table are ten miles apart.

https://collabfund.com/blog/the-psychology-of-money/
by james22
Fri Dec 08, 2023 7:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing 100% into TQQQ
Replies: 231
Views: 36966

Re: Investing 100% into TQQQ

by james22
Mon Nov 27, 2023 8:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing 100% into TQQQ
Replies: 231
Views: 36966

Re: Investing 100% into TQQQ

RichIn7Years wrote: Mon Nov 20, 2023 12:01 pmI’m not going to read a 30 page thread :(
Yeah, it could only save your life.
by james22
Sat Nov 11, 2023 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: *Update* Melancholy Tale: Parents Had Pension, Social Security, SPIA & TIPS, but …
Replies: 282
Views: 48954

Re: *Update* Melancholy Tale: Parents Had Pension, Social Security, SPIA & TIPS, but …

EnjoyIt wrote: Sat Nov 11, 2023 9:13 amI agree with what you wrote, just one correction to the above. 76% of retirees with a 60/40 portfolio end up with the same amount or higher after 30 years using a 4% SWR. That means 24% will see their wealth erode.
More like 40%, actually:

Of course, in some of these situations, final wealth is augmented by decades of compounding inflation. Nonetheless, even on a real (inflation-adjusted) basis, retirees finish with more than 100% of their inflation-adjusted principal 60% of the time, and double their real wealth almost 1/4th of the time, even after supporting a lifetime of inflation-adjusted spending at a 4% initial withdrawal rate!

But the point remains.
by james22
Fri Nov 10, 2023 6:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 8% SWR!
Replies: 112
Views: 13281

Re: 8% SWR!

EnjoyIt wrote: Fri Nov 10, 2023 3:54 pmHis listeners need the hope.
They deserve the truth.

Luckily:

Social Security benefits are progressive: they represent a higher proportion of a worker’s previous earnings for workers at lower earnings levels. For example, benefits for a low earner (with 45 percent of the average wage) retiring at age 65 in 2023 provide $14,824 a year, replacing about half of their prior earnings. But benefits for a high earner (with 160 percent of the average wage) provide $32,345, replacing about 30 percent of prior earnings.

https://www.cbpp.org/sites/default/file ... socsec.pdf

Low-income earners need only save 12.55X income while the high-earner needs save 17.36X.
by james22
Fri Nov 10, 2023 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 8% SWR!
Replies: 112
Views: 13281

Re: 8% SWR!

H-Town wrote: Fri Nov 10, 2023 10:59 amYou don't know when you will die.
You don't know what market return will give you tomorrow, much less 5 year, 10 years, or 20 years from now.
You don't know life events or health events that will happen in the future.

Ramsey's 8% SWR is as a good guess as your 4% SWR, and as a good guess as my 2% SWR.
You believe all outcomes equally probable?
by james22
Fri Nov 10, 2023 10:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 8% SWR!
Replies: 112
Views: 13281

Re: 8% SWR!

H-Town wrote: Fri Nov 10, 2023 10:34 amPeople can survive with much less.
Doesn't change the math.
by james22
Fri Nov 10, 2023 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 8% SWR!
Replies: 112
Views: 13281

Re: 8% SWR!

z3r0c00l wrote: Fri Nov 10, 2023 10:30 am
james22 wrote: Fri Nov 10, 2023 10:26 am
But 3% is NOT as equally crazy as 8%. Sleeping like a baby is not like sleeping in the street.
I think dying with millions is a waste. Maybe folks don't enjoy spending money which is fine, but to hoard money that others could really use is a shame. Lots of boomers out there sitting on millions while their kids live paycheck to paycheck. For what exactly? Tons of cultural institutions and charities starved for money. I bet there are quite a few homeless and poor in any community. And there is travel, good food, and any number of fun hobbies to enjoy. Don't be Hetty Green, that isn't fun.
I agree (I've no dependents) and hope to die broke.

Has nothing to do with the 8% withdrawal failure rate though.
by james22
Fri Nov 10, 2023 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Do You Like My New 'Doo
Replies: 445
Views: 106988

Re: How Do You Like My New 'Doo

nedsaid wrote: Fri Nov 10, 2023 8:28 amFair questions.
I appreciate you not taking offense. I hesitate every time I post fearing it'll be taken the wrong way.
nedsaid wrote: Fri Nov 10, 2023 8:28 amI don't obsess over the percentages of the component investments, I look at the broad asset allocation and the Morningstar Styleboxes. If the broad allocation and the Styleboxes look good, then I am good with the portfolio.
Ah, that I can understand.
by james22
Fri Nov 10, 2023 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 8% SWR!
Replies: 112
Views: 13281

Re: 8% SWR!

vfinx wrote: Fri Nov 10, 2023 8:28 am
james22 wrote: Fri Nov 10, 2023 7:29 am
vfinx wrote: Fri Nov 10, 2023 12:35 amHe’s a liar, not an idiot. He knows exactly what sequence of return risk is.
That's your defense?
Defense against what?
Near-criminal advice.


And no, pensions, part-time work, flexible spending, etc. don't protect the portfolio itself from failing to make it 30 years two-thirds of the time. Just means the retiree isn't entirely dependent upon the portfolio.

And yes, retirees should understand a 4% WR assumes the worst case scenario and should plan to deal with a surplus.

But 3% is NOT as equally crazy as 8%. Sleeping like a baby is not like sleeping in the street.
by james22
Fri Nov 10, 2023 7:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 8% SWR!
Replies: 112
Views: 13281

Re: 8% SWR!

vfinx wrote: Fri Nov 10, 2023 12:35 amHe’s a liar, not an idiot. He knows exactly what sequence of return risk is.
That's your defense?
by james22
Fri Nov 10, 2023 12:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 8% SWR!
Replies: 112
Views: 13281

Re: 8% SWR!

Ramsay is very clever and tends to give advice, that if followed, will likely end up leading to good outcomes, but not for the reasons he claims. But the reasons he claims are alluring with a high degree of certainty, so it gives his listeners the conviction to follow the plan. He’s a coach, not an advisor. Aiming for a 12x nest egg is very likely to lead to good outcomes for his listeners, especially if they would otherwise blow it on crap. Along the way, they’ll have gotten out of debt, and developed a lot of good habits. And once the snowball starts rolling, they’ll likely not stop at 12x anyway. Even if they do, when social security or other part time gigs are factored in, they’ll be ok. And crucially, they’ll have developed a frugalit...
by james22
Tue Nov 07, 2023 7:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: *Update* Melancholy Tale: Parents Had Pension, Social Security, SPIA & TIPS, but …
Replies: 282
Views: 48954

Re: *Update* Melancholy Tale: Parents Had Pension, Social Security, SPIA & TIPS, but …

IDpilot wrote: Tue Nov 07, 2023 5:07 pm on a real (inflation-adjusted) basis, retirees finish with more than 100% of their inflation-adjusted principal 60% of the time
Why would retirees at that point to be any more likely to run out of money than they were 30 years prior?

Regardless of your thrift and investment decisions along the way.

What if they withdraw less than 4% or otherwise adjust their spending?

The claim is overstated.
IDpilot wrote: Tue Nov 07, 2023 5:07 pmAnd then there is the issue with the two fundamentally bad assumptions with this study.
1) The future will be just like the past
2) The past provides enough data to make a statistically valid forecast about what the future in which assumption one is true, will be.
The assumptions don't apply to the claim?
by james22
Tue Nov 07, 2023 4:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: *Update* Melancholy Tale: Parents Had Pension, Social Security, SPIA & TIPS, but …
Replies: 282
Views: 48954

Re: *Update* Melancholy Tale: Parents Had Pension, Social Security, SPIA & TIPS, but …

GAAP wrote: Tue Nov 07, 2023 4:31 pmThe people living a "very long time", are living well past the30-year time interval in SWR studies. The example in this case is 41 years -- 37% beyond the maximum period in those studies.
If they survived the first 30 years with some multiple of their starting wealth remaining, why can't they survive another 30?
by james22
Tue Nov 07, 2023 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: *Update* Melancholy Tale: Parents Had Pension, Social Security, SPIA & TIPS, but …
Replies: 282
Views: 48954

Re: *Update* Melancholy Tale: Parents Had Pension, Social Security, SPIA & TIPS, but …

And that is the moral : if you live a very long time you are very likely to run out of money. Regardless of your thrift and investment decisions along the way. This just isn't so. Perhaps you can explain why? The Surprising Upside Of A 4% Safe Withdrawal Rate The origin of the safe withdrawal rate was actually rather straightforward – it’s simply the initial withdrawal rate that would have sustained inflation-adjusted spending in the worst case scenario in (US) history. In point of fact, the historical initial withdrawal rate that would have worked for a 60/40 portfolio over any particular 30-year time horizon has varied between 4% and 10%, and the median is close to 6.5%. But since we don’t necessarily know up front whether the next 30 ye...
by james22
Tue Nov 07, 2023 9:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: *Update* Melancholy Tale: Parents Had Pension, Social Security, SPIA & TIPS, but …
Replies: 282
Views: 48954

Re: *Update* Melancholy Tale: Parents Had Pension, Social Security, SPIA & TIPS, but …

McQ wrote: Mon Nov 06, 2023 5:05 pmAnd that is the moral : if you live a very long time you are very likely to run out of money. Regardless of your thrift and investment decisions along the way.
This just isn't so.
by james22
Tue Nov 07, 2023 9:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Do You Like My New 'Doo
Replies: 445
Views: 106988

Re: How Do You Like My New 'Doo

I also like to do the analysis. .... But one reason I know something about investments is that I have done a lot of things and owned a bunch of stuff over the years. You learn when you have real life money on the line with real life investments. I really am good with you doing whatever works for you. I'd only ask, given finite bandwidth, how much time you've left for analysis after just keeping up with your portfolio? And given the allocation size, are you motivated to? Do you really analyze the performance of these asset classes and make decisions as to whether they should remain in your portfolio or grow? American Century Mid-Cap Value Y 0.96% Fidelity Real Estate Index 0.87% iShares Micro-Cap ETF 0.62% iShares Core Growth Allocation ETF...
by james22
Sun Nov 05, 2023 8:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Do You Like My New 'Doo
Replies: 445
Views: 106988

Re: How Do You Like My New 'Doo

nedsaid wrote: Sun Nov 05, 2023 8:11 pmI do want to do things for sound reasons and sometimes we fool ourselves.
Sure.

I'll admit half my problem with the portfolio is it offends my sense of elegance. But I'm a minimalist.

You're a collector and like to tinker. Better for you to stick with that.

Because I believe you have to like what your portfolio looks like.
by james22
Sun Nov 05, 2023 8:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Do You Like My New 'Doo
Replies: 445
Views: 106988

Re: How Do You Like My New 'Doo

That's cool. As long as it works for you.

My concern would be that the complexity takes away from the decision-making, that's all.
by james22
Sun Nov 05, 2023 2:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Do You Like My New 'Doo
Replies: 445
Views: 106988

Re: How Do You Like My New 'Doo

What would you advise to someone who posted this exact same portfolio for review? Forget it, he's rolling. I actually have provided a detailed answer. Have been thinking about doing things for a long time and some of them I have actually done. A big one was getting down to three providers. I rolled over a Cash Balance Pension Plan and increased my allocation to TIPS. I found an Advisory service that I liked after a search over many years. I have sketched out an outline for a retirement plan and the plan is getting clearer. Now that I have access to MoneyGuidePro software, I am digging into the details of a retirement plan with such things as dealing with consumer debt and putting together a realistic budget. Oh, I know (I questioned you ba...
by james22
Sun Nov 05, 2023 8:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Do You Like My New 'Doo
Replies: 445
Views: 106988

Re: How Do You Like My New 'Doo

rossington wrote: Sun Nov 05, 2023 3:59 amWhat would you advise to someone who posted this exact same portfolio for review?
Forget it, he's rolling.
by james22
Thu Nov 02, 2023 3:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cracking the Bridgewater code
Replies: 19
Views: 3087

Re: Cracking the Bridgewater code

nisiprius wrote: Thu Nov 02, 2023 7:58 amDalio's rhetoric of timeless principles based on deep study of centuries of financial history always seemed suspect.
I do not wish to give the impression that Principles is the worst book I have ever read for professional reasons, or that narcissism, sophistry, and illiteracy are the only things in it. They’re just the only things that I can glean from its nearly six hundred pages ...

https://americanaffairsjournal.org/2018 ... r-dummies/
by james22
Wed Sep 20, 2023 8:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5351
Views: 903444

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

Valuations?

Now that investors have broader access to index funds, targetdate funds and automated investing tools, it’s no wonder equity allocations have been rising over the past 5 decades.

This stuff matters when looking at historical relationships and averages for the stock market.

The addition of retirement accounts and automated contributions was a game-changer for financial markets.

I’m not saying this makes historical fundamentals in the stock market meaningless but it does mean context is required when comparing now and then.


https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2023/0 ... t-forever/

It's different this time.
by james22
Tue Sep 19, 2023 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5351
Views: 903444

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

Northern Flicker wrote: Tue Sep 19, 2023 12:00 am
james22 wrote: Mon Sep 18, 2023 4:39 pm
Northern Flicker wrote: Mon Sep 18, 2023 3:57 pmPerformance chasing is buying what has been hot recently. It means you already missed that hot run-up, so it is not uncommon for subsequent returns to be muted.
james22 wrote: Wed Sep 13, 2023 10:57 amNC. Trading is getting 80% of the move. Yeah. The first 10% somebody else can have, and the last 10%. If you can capture 80% of the move you're way ahead.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V0dqoptI84s&t=4121s
If you wait to buy something after a 10% increase, there is no guarantee it will increase another 80%. It may just give the 10% back in the short run, leading to overpaying for it.
What's guaranteed?
by james22
Mon Sep 18, 2023 6:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5351
Views: 903444

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

Beensabu wrote: Mon Sep 18, 2023 6:06 pm
james22 wrote: Mon Sep 18, 2023 3:42 pmDo you believe all five strategies in the OP have equal expected returns?
Over a long enough time frame, yes.
Why debate this then?
by james22
Mon Sep 18, 2023 6:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5351
Views: 903444

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

International (itself) isn't a factor for good reason. It isn't persistent, pervasive, or robust. If I'm going to invest in International, I want to see outperformance and a reason to believe why it'll continue. Intuitive: There are logical, risk-based or behavioral-based explanations for the premium and why it should continue to exist. Investors should prefer risk-based explanations, as they cannot be arbitraged away (although post-publication cash flows can shrink the premium). However, that does not mean we should totally discard behavioral-based explanations, because well-documented limits to arbitrage can prevent sophisticated investors from correcting overvaluations. https://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-what-mak...
by james22
Mon Sep 18, 2023 4:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5351
Views: 903444

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

Northern Flicker wrote: Mon Sep 18, 2023 3:57 pmPerformance chasing is buying what has been hot recently. It means you already missed that hot run-up, so it is not uncommon for subsequent returns to be muted.
james22 wrote: Wed Sep 13, 2023 10:57 amNC. Trading is getting 80% of the move. Yeah. The first 10% somebody else can have, and the last 10%. If you can capture 80% of the move you're way ahead.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V0dqoptI84s&t=4121s
by james22
Mon Sep 18, 2023 3:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5351
Views: 903444

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

Beensabu wrote: Mon Sep 18, 2023 3:29 pm
james22 wrote: Mon Sep 18, 2023 2:23 pm
Beensabu wrote: Mon Sep 18, 2023 1:53 pm
james22 wrote: Mon Sep 18, 2023 11:34 am Myself, I'd need either see extended outperformance or good reasons (cultural, structural) for a single year's significant outperformance to believe International warranted an allocation.
The people who jumped into exUS in 2007 after extended outperformance will tell you that didn't work out great either.

You realize that either way, you're just describing performance chasing, right?
Aren't we all?
No. We all want return.

Performance chasing has been shown to decrease long-term returns more often than not.
Do you believe all five strategies in the OP have equal expected returns?
by james22
Mon Sep 18, 2023 3:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5351
Views: 903444

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

So 2022 was the trigger year then? Sure, if you define outperformance by losing less in a single bad year. I don't believe most would define it that way. It'll be different for everyone, of course. If that's the case, then it would have been 2017. Or would that be considered pre-tech? No, I think Tech was a real contributor to US performance then. And yes, that was a significant (30%) beat by International. But psychologically, like the 2022 beat, probably few felt envious after a really good US year. More importantly, if that had been your trigger, you'd have been proven wrong. Maybe the better trigger is HomerJ's "extended out-performance," whatever that means (we'll know it when we see it). Myself, I'd need either see extended...
by james22
Mon Sep 18, 2023 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5351
Views: 903444

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

Beensabu wrote: Mon Sep 18, 2023 1:53 pm
james22 wrote: Mon Sep 18, 2023 11:34 am Myself, I'd need either see extended outperformance or good reasons (cultural, structural) for a single year's significant outperformance to believe International warranted an allocation.
The people who jumped into exUS in 2007 after extended outperformance will tell you that didn't work out great either.

You realize that either way, you're just describing performance chasing, right?
Aren't we all?
by james22
Mon Sep 18, 2023 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5351
Views: 903444

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

So 2022 was the trigger year then? Sure, if you define outperformance by losing less in a single bad year. I don't believe most would define it that way. It'll be different for everyone, of course. If that's the case, then it would have been 2017. Or would that be considered pre-tech? No, I think Tech was a real contributor to US performance then. And yes, that was a significant (30%) beat by International. But psychologically, like the 2022 beat, probably few felt envious after a really good US year. More importantly, if that had been your trigger, you'd have been proven wrong. Maybe the better trigger is HomerJ's "extended out-performance," whatever that means (we'll know it when we see it). Myself, I'd need either see extended...
by james22
Sun Sep 17, 2023 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5351
Views: 903444

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

CraigTester wrote: Sun Sep 17, 2023 2:49 pmSo I'm really not trying to be difficult, but are you saying,

Starting tomorrow, US will Out-perform Int'l, because ????
You list a number of reasons the 100% US'rs give (exceptionalism, structure, government support, etc.) to explain US outperformance and why it'll continue.

You didn't include technology leadership.

If one does, and recognizes the accelerating nature of tech, one believes why US outperformance will only widen.


And it's not just that Valuations Don't Matter (unreliable, etc.), it's that It's Different This Time makes historical measures of Valuation meaningless.

Or even that International has outperformed in the past - future outperformance will go to tech leadership.
by james22
Sun Sep 17, 2023 2:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5351
Views: 903444

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

And:

100% US'rs.

20% Int’l "The Compromise"

40% Int’l. "The Global Market Cappers"

60% Int’l. "Buy low, Sell High".

100% Int’l, "Everything In 60% Int’l..., Plus"

100% US, Until Things Change
- Don't make the game harder than it needs to be.
- Revisit once International outperforms
by james22
Sun Sep 17, 2023 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5351
Views: 903444

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

This time is different, starting when...? If you accept the accelerating technology analogy, it started with the first half of the chessboard (explaining tech's long outperformance). It should pretty quickly become more apparently different soon with the second half. As far as our list goes, can you propose a bullet point for others to debate adding..... Not sure the chessboard analogy will work for these purpose though.... Do you have a date when "this time is different" started...? It doesn't matter when it started, because one can invest only today or tomorrow, not yesterday. Simply add the bullet point This Time Is Different (after Valuations Don't Matter as they are similar)? Likewise: Valuations Aren’t Actionable This Time ...
by james22
Sun Sep 17, 2023 1:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5351
Views: 903444

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

CraigTester wrote: Sun Sep 17, 2023 1:32 pm This time is different, starting when...?
If you accept the accelerating technology analogy, it started with the first half of the chessboard (explaining tech's long outperformance).

It should pretty quickly become more apparently different soon with the second half.
by james22
Sun Sep 17, 2023 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5351
Views: 903444

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

JB. Don't make this game harder than it has to be. We just talked about it so we don't have to rehash it, but the US has consistently outperformed rest of the world for a long time. There are excellent reasons for that. It will continue. Until it doesn't. I'm a big fan of this way of thinking. I understand it could flip. Let it flip. And then we'll have a different conversation. I'm very much of that way of thinking when I can afford to be. NC. Trading is getting 80% of the move. Yeah. The first 10% somebody else can have, or the last 10. If you can capture 80% of the move you're way ahead. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V0dqoptI84s&t=4121s And this maybe added as a 6th position to take? Going with what works until things change? If y...