Search found 1203 matches

by james22
Sat Sep 22, 2018 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?
Replies: 58
Views: 3776

Re: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?

Really doesn't matter what the chart says if forward P/E is not actually correlated with realized, subsequent market returns. That the market takes forward P/E seriously is just a manifestation of Bogle's Iron Law of Investing: In the short run, speculative return drives the market. In the long run,...
by james22
Fri Sep 21, 2018 5:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Diversify? Why Not 100% Global Stocks
Replies: 48
Views: 5739

Re: Why Diversify? Why Not 100% Global Stocks

willthrill81 wrote:
Fri Sep 21, 2018 1:16 pm
Not all valuation metrics are high. The forward P/E is just 17. Earnings are high, and backward looking metrics like CAPE don't adequately reflect this.
Is forward P/E actually correlated with realized, subsequent market returns?

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc100802.htm
by james22
Sun Sep 16, 2018 12:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Disrupted Expectations
Replies: 53
Views: 6091

Re: Larry Swedroe: Disrupted Expectations

Just please don't tell me I'm irrational to save a lot and plan around low returns and ignore valuations. Not irrational at all (as a satisficer) to invest as you do, Homer. But just maybe a little irrational to continually argue on the Theory board against ways that might better returns for those ...
by james22
Sat Sep 15, 2018 9:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pension alternatives
Replies: 41
Views: 3214

Re: Pension alternatives

grok87 wrote:
Sat Sep 15, 2018 12:02 pm
here it is
Thanks, grok.
by james22
Sat Sep 15, 2018 9:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Disrupted Expectations
Replies: 53
Views: 6091

Re: Larry Swedroe: Disrupted Expectations

Valuations don't matter. Years to retirement matter. Since I'm 5 years away, I'm 50/50 stocks/bonds. It would be difficult for my portfolio to be cut in half at this point (although still possible). Note I would be 50/50 even if valuations were "normal" or "low". Because the risk of a crash is neve...
by james22
Fri Sep 14, 2018 11:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pension alternatives
Replies: 41
Views: 3214

Re: Pension alternatives

BAC-L and WFC-L

See the 14th post for an annuity comparison:

http://boards.fool.com/a-value-opportun ... sort=whole
by james22
Mon Sep 10, 2018 8:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "6 Reasons The Rich Should Pay-Off Their Mortgage"
Replies: 192
Views: 34974

Re: "6 Reasons The Rich Should Pay-Off Their Mortgage"

Two reason I just paid for a condo with cash:

First, valuation matters. The risk free ~4% return exceeds the low expected returns of alternatives today.

Second, I'm lazy. Paying cash simplified the buying process and ongoing record keeping.
by james22
Sun Sep 09, 2018 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question: Alternatives to Berkshire
Replies: 14
Views: 1240

Re: Question: Alternatives to Berkshire

MKL, FRFHF, WTM, L, Y, TPRE, GLRE.

BAM (in a way) too.
by james22
Sun Aug 12, 2018 2:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 229
Views: 14295

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

I think the issue is the concept around "need". For you (us) valuations aren't actionable because you (we) are so conservative that they don't really matter to us. But if we actually lived right up against our "plan" (let's say spending 5-6% WR), then this may change our minds re our NEED to take r...
by james22
Thu Aug 09, 2018 9:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 229
Views: 14295

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

Are you arguing beta is persistent, pervasive, robust, and has a logical, risk-based and/or behavioral-based explanation?
by james22
Thu Aug 09, 2018 9:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 229
Views: 14295

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

Of course? Why do you believe buy-and-hold will deliver? Because when you are investing in public common stocks you are investing in enterprises that are attempting to be productive and profitable for their shareholders by offering products and services that are meant to improve lives and increase ...
by james22
Thu Aug 09, 2018 3:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 229
Views: 14295

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

Of course?

Why do you believe buy-and-hold will deliver?
by james22
Thu Aug 09, 2018 2:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 229
Views: 14295

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

Does CAPE10 account for changes in the way earnings are reported due to changes in US GAAP accounting rules over the last 30 years? Doing away with depreciating goodwill was a big one. I'm sure there are several others. Does it also adjust for recent tax law changes? What about changes in demograph...
by james22
Sun Jul 29, 2018 9:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vgd alt strategies fund (vasfx) open to retail investors?
Replies: 23
Views: 1948

Re: Vgd alt strategies fund (vasfx) open to retail investors?

A lot of people have that much in retirement accounts and could switch to this fund with no tax implications. Cannot imagine I would want an alt strategy fund and sure I would not pay 0.79% expense ratio for any fund. Maybe if there is someday an alt index fund with a single digit expense ratio... ...
by james22
Sun Jul 29, 2018 3:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vgd alt strategies fund (vasfx) open to retail investors?
Replies: 23
Views: 1948

Re: Vgd alt strategies fund (vasfx) open to retail investors?

Doesn't seem available - tried to Add another Vanguard mutual fund to my Roth and VASFX didn't show.

When Select from a list of our funds/Fund minimum $25,000 and up, only VUSXX, VPGDX, and VMNFX did.
by james22
Sat Jul 28, 2018 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Favorite Alternative Funds
Replies: 209
Views: 32011

Re: My Favorite Alternative Funds

Just larger than I'd like in my Roth too.

I'll buy the $250k minimum and sell off $50k the next day.
by james22
Sat Jul 28, 2018 7:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Favorite Alternative Funds
Replies: 209
Views: 32011

Re: My Favorite Alternative Funds

Your post is why I asked, grok - I'm pretty interested.
by james22
Sat Jul 28, 2018 6:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Favorite Alternative Funds
Replies: 209
Views: 32011

Re: My Favorite Alternative Funds

james22 wrote:
Tue Sep 12, 2017 3:50 am
How attractive would you find VASFX if made available, grap?

Sure would like to think they'll offer it as they do VMNFX soon.
grap?
by james22
Wed May 09, 2018 3:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Avoid Emerging Markets due to stricter securities regulation in Developed Markets? Lessons from SZSE..Maybe not?
Replies: 26
Views: 2894

Re: Avoid Emerging Markets due to stricter securities regulation in Developed Markets? Lessons from SZSE..Maybe not?

The one thing a vibrant market economy needs to produce real growth and entrepreneurship is the rule of law. Unfortunately, that does not exist in Russia. In Russia, might makes right and wealth equals power. Until this changes, no amount of funding or government support will change things. https:/...
by james22
Sat May 05, 2018 10:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unprecedented Event
Replies: 67
Views: 9732

Re: Unprecedented Event

The Surprisingly Solid Mathematical Case of the Tin Foil Hat Gun Prepper

https://medium.com/s/story/the-surprisi ... fce7d10437
by james22
Mon Apr 23, 2018 10:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard factor funds slow to catch on
Replies: 58
Views: 6758

Re: Vanguard factor funds slow to catch on

Because I'm a value investor first.

I'd love to be mostly multifactor, but not at market highs.
by james22
Sat Apr 21, 2018 10:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What If Rip Van Winkle Invested In The Stock Market?
Replies: 6
Views: 1377

Re: What If Rip Van Winkle Invested In The Stock Market?

...historically, once prospective returns have dropped below about 7.5%, investors could have adopted what I've called a "Rip van Winkle" strategy: just going to sleep until stocks dropped by at least 30% or moved back to prospective returns above 10% - a strategy that would have historically outpe...
by james22
Tue Apr 17, 2018 4:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any value investor buying a Russia fund?
Replies: 92
Views: 6778

Re: Any value investor buying a Russia fund?

Are you familiar with Russia's historical CAPE, Lauretta?

It's the mean a value investor might expect it to revert to, not some global average.
by james22
Mon Apr 16, 2018 8:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unimpressive category averages of managed futures, multialternative, market neutral, etc.
Replies: 82
Views: 6319

Re: Unimpressive category averages of managed futures, multialternative, market neutral, etc.

Insurance is a hedge (with costs), wickywack. One isn't usually unhappy that (as aristotelian answered) the events it was designed to hedge against didn't happen.

And I don't believe it possible that many have an intuitive (or otherwise) understanding of the Fed policy on valuation.
by james22
Mon Apr 16, 2018 4:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unimpressive category averages of managed futures, multialternative, market neutral, etc.
Replies: 82
Views: 6319

Re: Unimpressive category averages of managed futures, multialternative, market neutral, etc.

This is sobering data. Do you find it sobering to realize you're insurance costs without a claim? I suspect all these trendy categories all had much better returns up to the point that they became trendy. I suspect betting on beta and buy-and-holding without regard to valuation will never be more t...
by james22
Mon Apr 16, 2018 3:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any value investor buying a Russia fund?
Replies: 92
Views: 6778

Re: Any value investor buying a Russia fund?

Relative to its own historical CAPE, Russia's current CAPE is not in value territory.
by james22
Tue Apr 10, 2018 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio
Replies: 237
Views: 17730

Re: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio

Is there another forum where Swedroe interacts with like this one, nisiprius? He has posted in excess of 10,000 times and spent a lot of time answering questions on the forum, by personal message, and by e-mail. Do you believe he choose this forum by chance? If you are an advisor trolling for client...
by james22
Mon Apr 09, 2018 10:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio
Replies: 237
Views: 17730

Re: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio

Do you believe Swedroe targets this forum because its members are gullible, Elysium?

Or because its informed investors are receptive to the argument?
by james22
Mon Apr 09, 2018 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio
Replies: 237
Views: 17730

Re: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio

It is easy to see in his writings that author Larry Swedroe always uses the word " beta " to describe " low-cost total-market cap-weighted indexing ". "Beta" has negative connotations: it's the second letter of the alphabet of a foreign language (Greek)*. This is an important part of the marketing ...
by james22
Sun Apr 08, 2018 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio
Replies: 237
Views: 17730

Re: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio

Assume the worst, dbr - he's (only) a salesman. So? He believes he has a solution to a problem. The only question is - can he make the sale? In my case, the answer is no (agree with diagnosis, disagree with prescription), but I appreciate being made aware of the argument. Fine to disagree with him w...
by james22
Sun Apr 08, 2018 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio
Replies: 237
Views: 17730

Re: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio

to me seems like yet another thinly veiled Swedroe advert on etf.com for Stoneridge, AQR, etc Swedroe and his ilk, who are always trying to justify their management fees and sell books, are constantly monkeying with their theories and backtesting. Larry should be ashamed of himself. This is differe...
by james22
Sat Apr 07, 2018 10:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio
Replies: 237
Views: 17730

Re: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio

It’s important to note that valuations are at historically high levels and bond yields are at historically low levels. But that is not a clarion cry to try and time the market.

Why not?

There's little opportunity cost to wait in cash for more attractive opportunities.
by james22
Mon Apr 02, 2018 10:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone hold any defensive funds in their portfolio?
Replies: 41
Views: 4315

Re: Anyone hold any defensive funds in their portfolio?

Why settle for defensive when some few individual stocks (Berkshire, Fairfax, Oaktree, etc.) are anti-fragile?
by james22
Sun Mar 18, 2018 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Re-insurance risk
Replies: 21
Views: 2061

Re: Re-insurance risk

From an interview with Jim Tisch and Joe Rosenberg of Loews Corporation in the Fall 2012 Graham & Doddsville newsletter: Over the last few years a few hedge fund managers have started P&C insurance businesses. Given how well you know the space, what are your thoughts on this? Tisch: I think they are...
by james22
Sat Mar 17, 2018 7:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How many people small value-tilt international?
Replies: 13
Views: 1951

Re: How many people small value-tilt international?

Fewer than if Vanguard would offer an ISV fund.
by james22
Sat Mar 17, 2018 1:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash
Replies: 178
Views: 19708

Re: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash

Optionality, optionality, optionality.
by james22
Tue Mar 06, 2018 10:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Anyone Invest In Berkshire Hathaway Instead Of Index Funds?
Replies: 80
Views: 14598

Re: Does Anyone Invest In Berkshire Hathaway Instead Of Index Funds?

[BRK] intrinsic value is currently 27% above market price. This the issue (relative valuation) with any market price comparison between BRK and the S&P 500 Index, rather then the starting point - BRK managed to match the overvalued index's performance while undervalued itself. And why past performa...
by james22
Mon Mar 05, 2018 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Anyone Invest In Berkshire Hathaway Instead Of Index Funds?
Replies: 80
Views: 14598

Re: Does Anyone Invest In Berkshire Hathaway Instead Of Index Funds?

Yes, I invest in BRK rather than Index Funds in my taxable account (tax efficient, valuation, anti-fragile).
by james22
Wed Feb 28, 2018 3:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead contradiction, constant asset allocation is market timing
Replies: 100
Views: 9657

Re: Boglehead contradiction, constant asset allocation is market timing

I cannot help you out with philosophy, but I'll stir the pot: Not rebalancing when the market drops significantly is a form of market timing. With respect to conventional investment strategies, understand that holding a fixed, static allocation to stocks and other investment classes, regardless of ...
by james22
Mon Feb 12, 2018 2:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuation-dependent Safe Withdrawal Rate?
Replies: 29
Views: 1851

Re: Valuation-dependent Safe Withdrawal Rate?

Who Ate Joe’s Retirement Money? Sequence Risk and its Insidious Drag on Retirement Wealth With the observations that starting valuation can be a useful tool in forecasting future returns and that owning stocks when they are cheaper tends to win in the long term with the additional benefit of suffer...
by james22
Fri Feb 02, 2018 1:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retreat to cash
Replies: 335
Views: 64983

Re: Retreat to cash

1. Hussman has done well thru the two complete market cycles ending in 2000 and 2008. This third cycle is yet incomplete. 2. There are times when Papa Van Winkle's results would have looked spectacularly, amazingly bad too. Which is why: ... it would be excruciatingly difficult to live through at ti...
by james22
Fri Dec 29, 2017 6:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What ever happened to the Larry portfolio?
Replies: 120
Views: 14550

Re: What ever happened to the Larry portfolio?

You know Vanguard's Small Cap Value Index (VISVX) does not mimic the United States stock index of small and value companies that Mr. Fama and Mr. French developed, yeah?
by james22
Fri Dec 22, 2017 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Saving for the crash
Replies: 58
Views: 8395

Re: Saving for the crash

market timer wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 7:25 am
I like holding cash right now. Short term rates are almost surely heading higher. Bonds and stocks are expensive. Let's check back in a year.
Yep.
by james22
Wed Oct 18, 2017 9:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe:Better To Face The Correction
Replies: 51
Views: 7675

Re: Larry Swedroe:Better To Face The Correction

garlandwhizzer wrote:
Wed Oct 18, 2017 2:17 pm
Larry is IMO a brilliant and accomplished student of the market and this piece offers insight.
I have great respect for Larry, but believe he's gone round the bend and this piece will one day be evidence of that.
by james22
Tue Oct 17, 2017 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Annuities-when and why?
Replies: 94
Views: 16681

Re: Annuities-when and why?

"Too big to fail" doesn't mean that the shareholders will be made whole. It means that the depositors don't have too much to worry about. People who buy their preferred stock are shareholders, not depositors. Source? Because: Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke also defined the term in 2010: "A too-...
by james22
Mon Oct 16, 2017 10:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Annuities-when and why?
Replies: 94
Views: 16681

Re: Annuities-when and why?

Previously I have suggested to people to use a mix of mainly WFC/PL for yield and a little WFC common to "insure" against the forced conversion. The only scenario that you get the forced conversion is the scenario wherein WFC has gone up by 3.5 from today's price, so when you eventually lose yield ...
by james22
Mon Oct 16, 2017 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Annuities-when and why?
Replies: 94
Views: 16681

Re: Annuities-when and why?

The Times had a recent article on "How to make you money last as long as you do" which has been a topic here as well. They quote a financial planner who has done some Monte Carlo simulations of the possibilities of running out of funds and found that delaying social security until age 70 helped con...
by james22
Wed Oct 11, 2017 12:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy when there's blood in the streets!
Replies: 39
Views: 7285

Re: Buy when there's blood in the streets!

If you invert and don't buy when there's dancing in the streets, you'll have cash to buy a decent quantity of stocks after a crash.
by james22
Fri Oct 06, 2017 2:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are stocks going up only because all the alternatives are lousy?
Replies: 45
Views: 6041

Re: Are stocks going up only because all the alternatives are lousy?

So the mindset, I think, goes something like this. Yes, market valuations are elevated, but, you know, low interest rates justify higher valuations. Besides, there’s really no alternative to stocks because you’ll get what, 1% annually in cash? Look at how the market has done in recent years. There’...