Search found 1185 matches

by james22
Wed May 09, 2018 3:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Avoid Emerging Markets due to stricter securities regulation in Developed Markets? Lessons from SZSE..Maybe not?
Replies: 26
Views: 2724

Re: Avoid Emerging Markets due to stricter securities regulation in Developed Markets? Lessons from SZSE..Maybe not?

The one thing a vibrant market economy needs to produce real growth and entrepreneurship is the rule of law. Unfortunately, that does not exist in Russia. In Russia, might makes right and wealth equals power. Until this changes, no amount of funding or government support will change things. https:/...
by james22
Sat May 05, 2018 10:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unprecedented Event
Replies: 67
Views: 9190

Re: Unprecedented Event

The Surprisingly Solid Mathematical Case of the Tin Foil Hat Gun Prepper

https://medium.com/s/story/the-surprisi ... fce7d10437
by james22
Mon Apr 23, 2018 10:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard factor funds slow to catch on
Replies: 50
Views: 5103

Re: Vanguard factor funds slow to catch on

Because I'm a value investor first.

I'd love to be mostly multifactor, but not at market highs.
by james22
Sat Apr 21, 2018 10:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What If Rip Van Winkle Invested In The Stock Market?
Replies: 6
Views: 1305

Re: What If Rip Van Winkle Invested In The Stock Market?

...historically, once prospective returns have dropped below about 7.5%, investors could have adopted what I've called a "Rip van Winkle" strategy: just going to sleep until stocks dropped by at least 30% or moved back to prospective returns above 10% - a strategy that would have historically outpe...
by james22
Tue Apr 17, 2018 4:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any value investor buying a Russia fund?
Replies: 92
Views: 6184

Re: Any value investor buying a Russia fund?

Are you familiar with Russia's historical CAPE, Lauretta?

It's the mean a value investor might expect it to revert to, not some global average.
by james22
Mon Apr 16, 2018 8:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unimpressive category averages of managed futures, multialternative, market neutral, etc.
Replies: 82
Views: 5778

Re: Unimpressive category averages of managed futures, multialternative, market neutral, etc.

Insurance is a hedge (with costs), wickywack. One isn't usually unhappy that (as aristotelian answered) the events it was designed to hedge against didn't happen.

And I don't believe it possible that many have an intuitive (or otherwise) understanding of the Fed policy on valuation.
by james22
Mon Apr 16, 2018 4:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unimpressive category averages of managed futures, multialternative, market neutral, etc.
Replies: 82
Views: 5778

Re: Unimpressive category averages of managed futures, multialternative, market neutral, etc.

This is sobering data. Do you find it sobering to realize you're insurance costs without a claim? I suspect all these trendy categories all had much better returns up to the point that they became trendy. I suspect betting on beta and buy-and-holding without regard to valuation will never be more t...
by james22
Mon Apr 16, 2018 3:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any value investor buying a Russia fund?
Replies: 92
Views: 6184

Re: Any value investor buying a Russia fund?

Relative to its own historical CAPE, Russia's current CAPE is not in value territory.
by james22
Tue Apr 10, 2018 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio
Replies: 237
Views: 16124

Re: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio

Is there another forum where Swedroe interacts with like this one, nisiprius? He has posted in excess of 10,000 times and spent a lot of time answering questions on the forum, by personal message, and by e-mail. Do you believe he choose this forum by chance? If you are an advisor trolling for client...
by james22
Mon Apr 09, 2018 10:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio
Replies: 237
Views: 16124

Re: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio

Do you believe Swedroe targets this forum because its members are gullible, Elysium?

Or because its informed investors are receptive to the argument?
by james22
Mon Apr 09, 2018 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio
Replies: 237
Views: 16124

Re: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio

It is easy to see in his writings that author Larry Swedroe always uses the word " beta " to describe " low-cost total-market cap-weighted indexing ". "Beta" has negative connotations: it's the second letter of the alphabet of a foreign language (Greek)*. This is an important part of the marketing ...
by james22
Sun Apr 08, 2018 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio
Replies: 237
Views: 16124

Re: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio

Assume the worst, dbr - he's (only) a salesman. So? He believes he has a solution to a problem. The only question is - can he make the sale? In my case, the answer is no (agree with diagnosis, disagree with prescription), but I appreciate being made aware of the argument. Fine to disagree with him w...
by james22
Sun Apr 08, 2018 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio
Replies: 237
Views: 16124

Re: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio

to me seems like yet another thinly veiled Swedroe advert on etf.com for Stoneridge, AQR, etc Swedroe and his ilk, who are always trying to justify their management fees and sell books, are constantly monkeying with their theories and backtesting. Larry should be ashamed of himself. This is differe...
by james22
Sat Apr 07, 2018 10:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio
Replies: 237
Views: 16124

Re: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio

It’s important to note that valuations are at historically high levels and bond yields are at historically low levels. But that is not a clarion cry to try and time the market.

Why not?

There's little opportunity cost to wait in cash for more attractive opportunities.
by james22
Mon Apr 02, 2018 10:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone hold any defensive funds in their portfolio?
Replies: 41
Views: 3751

Re: Anyone hold any defensive funds in their portfolio?

Why settle for defensive when some few individual stocks (Berkshire, Fairfax, Oaktree, etc.) are anti-fragile?
by james22
Sun Mar 18, 2018 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Re-insurance risk
Replies: 21
Views: 1905

Re: Re-insurance risk

From an interview with Jim Tisch and Joe Rosenberg of Loews Corporation in the Fall 2012 Graham & Doddsville newsletter: Over the last few years a few hedge fund managers have started P&C insurance businesses. Given how well you know the space, what are your thoughts on this? Tisch: I think they are...
by james22
Sat Mar 17, 2018 7:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How many people small value-tilt international?
Replies: 13
Views: 1598

Re: How many people small value-tilt international?

Fewer than if Vanguard would offer an ISV fund.
by james22
Sat Mar 17, 2018 1:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash
Replies: 178
Views: 18470

Re: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash

Optionality, optionality, optionality.
by james22
Tue Mar 06, 2018 10:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Anyone Invest In Berkshire Hathaway Instead Of Index Funds?
Replies: 69
Views: 9994

Re: Does Anyone Invest In Berkshire Hathaway Instead Of Index Funds?

[BRK] intrinsic value is currently 27% above market price. This the issue (relative valuation) with any market price comparison between BRK and the S&P 500 Index, rather then the starting point - BRK managed to match the overvalued index's performance while undervalued itself. And why past performa...
by james22
Mon Mar 05, 2018 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Anyone Invest In Berkshire Hathaway Instead Of Index Funds?
Replies: 69
Views: 9994

Re: Does Anyone Invest In Berkshire Hathaway Instead Of Index Funds?

Yes, I invest in BRK rather than Index Funds in my taxable account (tax efficient, valuation, anti-fragile).
by james22
Wed Feb 28, 2018 3:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead contradiction, constant asset allocation is market timing
Replies: 100
Views: 9094

Re: Boglehead contradiction, constant asset allocation is market timing

I cannot help you out with philosophy, but I'll stir the pot: Not rebalancing when the market drops significantly is a form of market timing. With respect to conventional investment strategies, understand that holding a fixed, static allocation to stocks and other investment classes, regardless of ...
by james22
Mon Feb 12, 2018 2:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuation-dependent Safe Withdrawal Rate?
Replies: 29
Views: 1609

Re: Valuation-dependent Safe Withdrawal Rate?

Who Ate Joe’s Retirement Money? Sequence Risk and its Insidious Drag on Retirement Wealth With the observations that starting valuation can be a useful tool in forecasting future returns and that owning stocks when they are cheaper tends to win in the long term with the additional benefit of suffer...
by james22
Fri Feb 02, 2018 1:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retreat to cash
Replies: 331
Views: 61335

Re: Retreat to cash

1. Hussman has done well thru the two complete market cycles ending in 2000 and 2008. This third cycle is yet incomplete. 2. There are times when Papa Van Winkle's results would have looked spectacularly, amazingly bad too. Which is why: ... it would be excruciatingly difficult to live through at ti...
by james22
Fri Dec 29, 2017 6:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What ever happened to the Larry portfolio?
Replies: 120
Views: 13404

Re: What ever happened to the Larry portfolio?

You know Vanguard's Small Cap Value Index (VISVX) does not mimic the United States stock index of small and value companies that Mr. Fama and Mr. French developed, yeah?
by james22
Fri Dec 22, 2017 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Saving for the crash
Replies: 58
Views: 8031

Re: Saving for the crash

market timer wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 7:25 am
I like holding cash right now. Short term rates are almost surely heading higher. Bonds and stocks are expensive. Let's check back in a year.
Yep.
by james22
Wed Oct 18, 2017 9:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe:Better To Face The Correction
Replies: 51
Views: 7507

Re: Larry Swedroe:Better To Face The Correction

garlandwhizzer wrote:
Wed Oct 18, 2017 2:17 pm
Larry is IMO a brilliant and accomplished student of the market and this piece offers insight.
I have great respect for Larry, but believe he's gone round the bend and this piece will one day be evidence of that.
by james22
Tue Oct 17, 2017 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Annuities-when and why?
Replies: 94
Views: 16068

Re: Annuities-when and why?

"Too big to fail" doesn't mean that the shareholders will be made whole. It means that the depositors don't have too much to worry about. People who buy their preferred stock are shareholders, not depositors. Source? Because: Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke also defined the term in 2010: "A too-...
by james22
Mon Oct 16, 2017 10:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Annuities-when and why?
Replies: 94
Views: 16068

Re: Annuities-when and why?

Previously I have suggested to people to use a mix of mainly WFC/PL for yield and a little WFC common to "insure" against the forced conversion. The only scenario that you get the forced conversion is the scenario wherein WFC has gone up by 3.5 from today's price, so when you eventually lose yield ...
by james22
Mon Oct 16, 2017 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Annuities-when and why?
Replies: 94
Views: 16068

Re: Annuities-when and why?

The Times had a recent article on "How to make you money last as long as you do" which has been a topic here as well. They quote a financial planner who has done some Monte Carlo simulations of the possibilities of running out of funds and found that delaying social security until age 70 helped con...
by james22
Wed Oct 11, 2017 12:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy when there's blood in the streets!
Replies: 39
Views: 7124

Re: Buy when there's blood in the streets!

If you invert and don't buy when there's dancing in the streets, you'll have cash to buy a decent quantity of stocks after a crash.
by james22
Fri Oct 06, 2017 2:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are stocks going up only because all the alternatives are lousy?
Replies: 45
Views: 5747

Re: Are stocks going up only because all the alternatives are lousy?

So the mindset, I think, goes something like this. Yes, market valuations are elevated, but, you know, low interest rates justify higher valuations. Besides, there’s really no alternative to stocks because you’ll get what, 1% annually in cash? Look at how the market has done in recent years. There’...
by james22
Wed Oct 04, 2017 3:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $10 million+ - Still Working and LBYM
Replies: 162
Views: 19444

Re: $10 million+ - Still Working and LBYM

San Francisco: The Case-Shiller Index covers five counties of the Bay Area and not just San Francisco. There are two indices for the area – the “High Tier” index and the overall index. And they behaved differently. The High Tier index (not pictured) tanked 43% during the housing bust, but has now s...
by james22
Tue Oct 03, 2017 10:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $10 million+ - Still Working and LBYM
Replies: 162
Views: 19444

Re: $10 million+ - Still Working and LBYM

The risks are extremely remote in my view for any of these triggers to happen so severely that the economic picture changes meaningfully and persistently in these areas. Again, these are the areas where so many in the US and around the world aspire to live and work and invest their money, and not j...
by james22
Tue Oct 03, 2017 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $10 million+ - Still Working and LBYM
Replies: 162
Views: 19444

Re: $10 million+ - Still Working and LBYM

In particular, I don't understand the rationale for holding large sums (7 figures) in bonds. Buy properties at the right locations instead. That's pretty much what everyone I know personally (who has the money) does, so it's nothing new, but it seems to be shocking to many here for some reason... I...
by james22
Fri Sep 29, 2017 1:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which bogleheads have a "high need to take risk"?
Replies: 51
Views: 5522

Re: Which bogleheads have a "high need to take risk"?

Doubling your income doesn't make you double as happy. Sure, but there are exceptions: some thing have a high entry cost. I've a trust and pension that will assure me a more than comfortable retirement; investing conservatively won't change that. I arguably have a high need to take risk because onl...
by james22
Sun Sep 17, 2017 3:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "36 Obvious Investment Truths"
Replies: 18
Views: 3169

Re: "36 Obvious Investment Truths"

2. If you want to earn higher returns you’re going to have to take more risk. False - "The greater the potential for reward in the value portfolio, the less risk there is." Buffett 6. If you want to hedge against stock market risk the easiest thing to do is hold more cash. True - but I'm not going ...
by james22
Sat Sep 16, 2017 9:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Howard Marks on Passive Investing
Replies: 16
Views: 3494

Re: Howard Marks on Passive Investing

larryswedroe wrote:
Fri Jan 15, 2016 9:07 pm
IMO Howard Marks is one of the smartest guys around, heard him speak as well as read much of his musings. One should pay attention.
Larry
by james22
Sat Sep 16, 2017 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in a Low-Return World: Howard Marks' 6 options
Replies: 44
Views: 4726

Re: Investing in a Low-Return World: Howard Marks' 6 options

... the Pappy Van Winkle's strategy (i.e. get out of the market when valuations are high and the trend turns negative) I'm curious, is that something you're planning to implement in practice? It's something I practice, Laurette. In the Ted Seides thread I shared what I do. I've been defensive too e...
by james22
Sat Sep 16, 2017 3:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in a Low-Return World: Howard Marks' 6 options
Replies: 44
Views: 4726

Re: Investing in a Low-Return World: Howard Marks' 6 options

In his latest memo, Howard Marks lists 6 options open to investors, considering today's high valuations and low yields: 1. Invest as you always have and expect your historic returns. 2. invest as you always have and settle for today’s low returns. 3. Reduce risk to prepare for a correction and acce...
by james22
Sat Sep 16, 2017 1:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in a Low-Return World: Howard Marks' 6 options
Replies: 44
Views: 4726

Re: Investing in a Low-Return World: Howard Marks' 6 options

Did Marks suggest an option? It would be sheer folly to expect to earn traditional returns today from investing like you’ve done traditionally (#1). With the risk-free rate of interest near zero and the returns on all other investments scaled based on that, I dare say few if any asset classes will ...
by james22
Sat Sep 16, 2017 1:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retreat to cash
Replies: 331
Views: 61335

Re: Retreat to cash

... low prospective returns have produced deep losses with enough regularity that historically, once prospective returns have dropped below about 7.5%, investors could have adopted what I've called a "Rip van Winkle" strategy: just going to sleep until stocks dropped by at least 30% or moved back t...
by james22
Sat Sep 16, 2017 1:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retreat to cash
Replies: 331
Views: 61335

Re: Retreat to cash

If frantic day-to-day attention to market movements serves to do anything, it is to convince investors that they cannot afford to miss any short-term rally; that they can't afford to miss the latest utterance from the Fed; that they can't afford to miss the latest “hot play” offered up to the masse...
by james22
Sat Sep 16, 2017 12:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ted Seides "Why I lost My Bet With Warren Buffett" - Bloomberg
Replies: 94
Views: 14004

Re: Ted Seides "Why I lost My Bet With Warren Buffett" - Bloomberg

After expense performance is all that matters - I'd give my whole portfolio over to Renaissance Technologies and pay their 5% management and 44% performance fees if I could.
by james22
Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ted Seides "Why I lost My Bet With Warren Buffett" - Bloomberg
Replies: 94
Views: 14004

Re: Ted Seides "Why I lost My Bet With Warren Buffett" - Bloomberg

Again, active ≠ active manager, Atgard.

Active investors can patiently hold cash in a way active managers cannot (without losing AUM).
by james22
Fri Sep 15, 2017 4:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ted Seides "Why I lost My Bet With Warren Buffett" - Bloomberg
Replies: 94
Views: 14004

Re: Ted Seides "Why I lost My Bet With Warren Buffett" - Bloomberg

A lot of very smug passive investors are going to learn when they look back at the beach that since the crash the one set of footprints they see are those of the central bankers that have carried them. Nice rhetoric, but would you flesh it out to the point where we can make a judgement on it? I und...
by james22
Thu Sep 14, 2017 3:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ted Seides "Why I lost My Bet With Warren Buffett" - Bloomberg
Replies: 94
Views: 14004

Re: Ted Seides "Why I lost My Bet With Warren Buffett" - Bloomberg

A lot of very smug passive investors are going to learn when they look back at the beach that since the crash the one set of footprints they see are those of the central bankers that have carried them.
by james22
Tue Sep 12, 2017 3:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Favorite Alternative Funds
Replies: 198
Views: 29242

Re: My Favorite Alternative Funds

How attractive would you find VASFX if made available, grap?

Sure would like to think they'll offer it as they do VMNFX soon.
by james22
Mon Sep 11, 2017 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Howard Marks on Passive Investing
Replies: 16
Views: 3494

Re: Howard Marks on Passive Investing

As much as I argue valuation matters, if you are new to investing you might be better ignoring it, Lauretta. Dollar cost averaging will mostly protect you (unless you are lump sum investing a significant amount). Even if not bold and self-confident though, you might still set an initial allocation m...
by james22
Mon Sep 11, 2017 8:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recent Hurricanes Provide Good Lesson For Investors
Replies: 30
Views: 5346

Re: Recent Hurricanes Provide Good Lesson For Investors

The real trouble with this world of ours is not that it is an unreasonable world, nor even that it is a reasonable one. The commonest kind of trouble is that it is nearly reasonable, but not quite. Life is not an illogicality, yet it is a trap for logicians. It looks just a little more mathematical ...