Search found 1245 matches

by james22
Sat Jan 19, 2019 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 157
Views: 5734

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

Interesting, but I'd always fear "it's different this time." I've the greatest respect for Hussman's analysis, but he's been surprised by ahistoric QE. I move between Stable Value, Small Value, and Emerging Market indices in my 401k based on valuation, but I've no specific measure/s. Rather I read q...
by james22
Thu Jan 17, 2019 2:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When would you stop being a Boglehead?
Replies: 95
Views: 7409

Re: When would you stop being a Boglehead?

And to say that I have someone managing a portfolio because I'm not capable is insulting. So, if you want to put your financial acumen against mine well go ahead. I bet I win. I don't give a shi*t what you think otherwise. You're betting there'll not come a time when your financial acumen is dimini...
by james22
Wed Jan 16, 2019 3:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When would you stop being a Boglehead?
Replies: 95
Views: 7409

Re: When would you stop being a Boglehead?

If BRK fell with the market to below book value, I'd delegate the management of my portfolio to Mr. Buffett.
by james22
Mon Jan 14, 2019 4:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand the case for EE bonds
Replies: 392
Views: 35719

Re: I don't understand the case for EE bonds

There's only one definition of risk that matters: that of failing to reach your financial goal.

However secure EE bonds seem, they are riskier than stocks because they are less likely to contribute to that goal.
by james22
Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand the case for EE bonds
Replies: 392
Views: 35719

Re: I don't understand the case for EE bonds

EE bonds offer individuals a better rate than large global investors, seems to make sense that there would be a limit. Why? You don't believe the government comes out ahead? Fixating on the rate without considering the strings attached and risks seems blinding. If anyone was willing to loan me mone...
by james22
Sun Jan 13, 2019 11:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand the case for EE bonds
Replies: 392
Views: 35719

Re: I don't understand the case for EE bonds

letsgobobby wrote:
Sun Jan 13, 2019 9:10 pm
i made the choice to take all my risk on the equity side.
I know you believe that, bobby, but EE bonds are *riskier* than stocks over 20 years.
by james22
Sun Jan 13, 2019 6:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand the case for EE bonds
Replies: 392
Views: 35719

Re: I don't understand the case for EE bonds

letsgobobby wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 5:15 pm
James, EE bonds are most appropriate for a portion of one's fixed income holdings, not all.
The portion you aren't going to touch for 20 years?

Why would that portion be in your fixed income holdings then?
by james22
Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand the case for EE bonds
Replies: 392
Views: 35719

Re: I don't understand the case for EE bonds

I value bonds for their optionality, bobby. I am paid to wait until I rebalance or valuations are more attractive elsewhere.

EE bond's lesser liquidity doesn't allow that.
by james22
Fri Jan 11, 2019 2:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SS/Pension/etc as bond allocation?
Replies: 25
Views: 1649

Re: SS/Pension/etc as bond allocation?

Nestegg_User wrote:
Fri Jan 11, 2019 1:21 am
OP, you've been here long enough to know...
And you've been here long enough to know this question is never settled. :happy
by james22
Wed Jan 09, 2019 6:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Converting a Slice and to Dice to 4 funds
Replies: 14
Views: 889

Re: Converting a Slice and to Dice to 4 funds

If you believe the market is efficient, any time is just as good as another.
by james22
Wed Jan 09, 2019 12:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand the case for EE bonds
Replies: 392
Views: 35719

Re: I don't understand the case for EE bonds

Yeah, I don't believe nominal returns guarantee anything that matters. EE bonds too risky for me. And sure, while the Treasury wishes to encourage savings they still might limit purchases because it too costly a program (and benefiting the wealthy), but if it is expected to be net positive? Why not ...
by james22
Tue Jan 08, 2019 12:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand the case for EE bonds
Replies: 392
Views: 35719

Re: I don't understand the case for EE bonds

I wish I could buy more EE bonds but we are limited in our annual purchases. And I wish I could borrow from you at EE bond terms. You are - how do you think the government finances itself? The people are the government. No, I'm an individual. The people do not borrow from themselves. I meant, of co...
by james22
Tue Jan 08, 2019 2:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand the case for EE bonds
Replies: 392
Views: 35719

Re: I don't understand the case for EE bonds

letsgobobby wrote:
Tue Apr 25, 2017 6:22 pm
I wish I could buy more EE bonds but we are limited in our annual purchases.
And I wish I could borrow from you at EE bond terms.
by james22
Tue Jan 08, 2019 1:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Value Premium Lives!
Replies: 61
Views: 5724

Re: Larry Swedroe: Value Premium Lives!

Factor-focused investors should be encouraged to see investors who are willing to dedicate many hours of their time to an investment forum impose their personal-subjective interpretations on factual-mathematical constructs. Perhaps it will balance out the investors who similarly do not understand f...
by james22
Mon Jan 07, 2019 3:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Value Premium - How Do You View It?
Replies: 128
Views: 11048

Re: Small Value Premium - How Do You View It?

1997-2017 Average Rank SV 5.00 EM 5.05 S 5.10 LV 5.29 SG 5.33 L 5.38 LG 5.43 IL 5.76 HY Bonds 5.95 Barclays Agg 6.67 Average Return EM 11.9% SV 11.2% LG 10.6% S 10.2% L 10% SG 9.6% LV 9.3% HY Bonds 8.1% IL 7.4% Barclays Agg 5.3% CAGR SV 9.6% LG 8.6% S 8.5% L 8.3% LV 7.37% SG 7.1% HY Bonds 7.1% EM 6....
by james22
Mon Jan 07, 2019 3:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Value Premium - How Do You View It?
Replies: 128
Views: 11048

Re: Small Value Premium - How Do You View It?

You can call me crazy but I have a hard time predicting which asset allocation will be best in a given year. https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2017/3/23/saupload_Callin-Periodic-Table-2016.png Are you investing only for a given year? Because if not, the data should (if better presented) predi...
by james22
Thu Jan 03, 2019 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BRK.B in 2019
Replies: 16
Views: 1807

Re: BRK.B in 2019

ryanshook wrote:
Thu Jan 03, 2019 12:48 am
I just meant do you think it’s still a good value after all these years? Would you hold it as a core piece of a retirement portfolio?
Yes, yes.
by james22
Thu Jan 03, 2019 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2299
Views: 400135

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

~3%

Held lots of Stable Value and preferreds (BAC/WFC-L) until recently when bought into fallen SV and EM and added to BRK and BAM.

Still waiting for a real opportunity.
by james22
Wed Jan 02, 2019 11:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: investing Uncomfortably
Replies: 88
Views: 7728

Re: Larry Swedroe: investing Uncomfortably

IMO the weakness in the factor (value) argument is the factors are based upon past correlations holding true in the future (i.e. folks value vs. growth stocks in a similar way as in the past (so the factor can revert). IMO the weakness in your argument is the dismissal of the risk-based or behavior...
by james22
Tue Dec 25, 2018 4:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a Nassim Taleb portfolio?
Replies: 38
Views: 4366

Re: Is there a Nassim Taleb portfolio?

TAIL Cambria Tail Risk ETF The Cambria Tail Risk ETF seeks to mitigate significant downside market risk. The Fund intends to invest in a portfolio of "out of the money" put options purchased on the U.S. stock market. TAIL strategy offers the potential advantage of buying more puts when volatility i...
by james22
Mon Dec 24, 2018 11:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who has made money by piggybacking on famous Hedge Fund managers?
Replies: 9
Views: 942

Re: Who has made money by piggybacking on famous Hedge Fund managers?

Check out the returns of Einhorn's GLRE and Loeb's TPRE.
by james22
Wed Dec 19, 2018 4:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008
Replies: 249
Views: 20335

Re: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008

I'd just returned to work after seven years off for travel and grad school. I'd run down my ill-gotten dot.com gains so was excited at the seeming opportunity to catch-up. I was aware of the risk though (could easily have gone the other way), but I'd relatively little to lose. Working overseas also ...
by james22
Sun Dec 16, 2018 8:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Berkshire Tempting
Replies: 38
Views: 5810

Re: Berkshire Tempting

TVD wrote:
Sat Dec 15, 2018 2:18 pm
If you had a choice, would you buy a S&P500 index fund or a stock "X", which has been tracking the S&P in near lock step for the last 18 years and has a 2 year correlation of 0.93?
How are the two valued, TVD? What is their expected return?
by james22
Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who is buying SCV, EM, Intl SC
Replies: 41
Views: 2776

Re: Who is buying SCV, EM, Intl SC

Not brave enough to buy when hitting new highs, I'm buying both SV and EM now.
by james22
Sun Dec 09, 2018 10:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vgd alt strategies fund (vasfx) open to retail investors?
Replies: 37
Views: 3129

Re: Vgd alt strategies fund (vasfx) open to retail investors?

Yeah, seems only fell the 4th from 20.92 to 20.79.

Must be just another bad Google Finance quote since the revamp.
by james22
Sun Dec 09, 2018 6:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vgd alt strategies fund (vasfx) open to retail investors?
Replies: 37
Views: 3129

Re: Vgd alt strategies fund (vasfx) open to retail investors?

I don't seem able to find historical intraday fund prices, but that's what I saw at the time.

Posted because seemed so odd.

Now I'm really curious - was it just a bad quote (Google Finance), a spike?

Anyone?
by james22
Sat Dec 08, 2018 12:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vgd alt strategies fund (vasfx) open to retail investors?
Replies: 37
Views: 3129

Re: Vgd alt strategies fund (vasfx) open to retail investors?

Vanguard Alternative Strategies Fund seeks to generate returns that have low correlation with the returns of the stock and bond markets, and that are less volatile than the overall U.S. stock market. VTSMX -3.32% VBTIX +0.19% VASFX -6.24% :? what time period is that? YTD VASFX is up like 3% From ma...
by james22
Thu Dec 06, 2018 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vgd alt strategies fund (vasfx) open to retail investors?
Replies: 37
Views: 3129

Re: Vgd alt strategies fund (vasfx) open to retail investors?

Vanguard Alternative Strategies Fund seeks to generate returns that have low correlation with the returns of the stock and bond markets, and that are less volatile than the overall U.S. stock market.

VTSMX -3.32%
VBTIX +0.19%
VASFX -6.24%

:?
by james22
Sat Nov 17, 2018 7:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Quantitative Equity Group Losing Talent
Replies: 61
Views: 4284

Re: Vanguard's Quantitative Equity Group Losing Talent

I would like to see Developed International and Emerging markets versions of their U.S. Multifactor ETF (VFMF) / U.S. Multifactor Fund Admiral Shares (VFMFX) funds. A combined Developed/Emerging Markets fund would be appreciated as well, but it would make rebalancing a little more difficult for me ...
by james22
Thu Nov 08, 2018 7:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Maximum Tax Deferral
Replies: 39
Views: 3747

Re: Maximum Tax Deferral

There's no limit to the amount I can put in Berkshire every year.
by james22
Thu Nov 08, 2018 6:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 426% return if there is a recession in 2019?
Replies: 23
Views: 4152

Re: 426% return if there is a recession in 2019?

Bogleheads encourage fiscal discipline, and fun money is poor discipline. Endearment of this behavior is contrary to Boglehead’s philosophy and doesn’t have a place on this forum. Please don’t promote such fiscal recklessness. Nonetheless, building an investment portfolio can be exciting, and tryin...
by james22
Thu Nov 08, 2018 3:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Whats your number to walk away?
Replies: 301
Views: 46136

Re: Whats your number to walk away?

So I'm curious of what that magical number is where if it could be gifted to you today, you'd make a "deal" and say "Ok I'm done making income and this is a good deal/tradeoff for me". FI, but I like my (highly compensated) work. I'm OMY until *something* happens. A health scare would do it, but I'...
by james22
Thu Oct 18, 2018 12:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear
Replies: 74
Views: 10187

Re: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear

But my main point is this: if you want to quote the Bible, then cite the Bible; if you don’t consider the Bible a valid authority, or don’t wish to be seen as citing it, then don’t cite it. Matthew 7:6 Give not that which is holy unto the dogs, neither castye your pearls before swine, lest they tra...
by james22
Wed Oct 17, 2018 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear
Replies: 74
Views: 10187

Re: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear

If you are thinking about selling, you might ask yourself what you know that Buffett doesn’t. Why is Buffett sitting on ~$110B in cash? Money was cheap, and stocks considering the long term prospects not so much anymore in his opinion I guess:) So what to do? Stocks have high valuation and bonds ar...
by james22
Wed Oct 17, 2018 1:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear
Replies: 74
Views: 10187

Re: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear

Larry wrote:If you are thinking about selling, you might ask yourself what you know that Buffett doesn’t.
Why is Buffett sitting on ~$110B in cash?
by james22
Thu Oct 04, 2018 7:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Be Prepared For Losses
Replies: 150
Views: 20932

Re: Larry Swedroe: Be Prepared For Losses

Note that the key variable here is "time to retirement", not valuations. Who Ate Joe’s Retirement Money? Sequence Risk and its Insidious Drag on Retirement Wealth With the observations that starting valuation can be a useful tool in forecasting future returns and that owning stocks when they are ch...
by james22
Sun Sep 30, 2018 12:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My CAPE10 based IPS
Replies: 103
Views: 6348

Re: My CAPE10 based IPS

Investors would love to find an easy way to tell them when to get out of the market to avoid an oncoming train on the tracks, especially at today’s elevated valuation levels. Unfortunately, valuation is not going to do that for you because expensive markets can always get more expensive, fundamenta...
by james22
Sat Sep 22, 2018 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?
Replies: 75
Views: 6055

Re: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?

Really doesn't matter what the chart says if forward P/E is not actually correlated with realized, subsequent market returns. That the market takes forward P/E seriously is just a manifestation of Bogle's Iron Law of Investing: In the short run, speculative return drives the market. In the long run,...
by james22
Fri Sep 21, 2018 5:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Diversify? Why Not 100% Global Stocks
Replies: 48
Views: 5979

Re: Why Diversify? Why Not 100% Global Stocks

willthrill81 wrote:
Fri Sep 21, 2018 1:16 pm
Not all valuation metrics are high. The forward P/E is just 17. Earnings are high, and backward looking metrics like CAPE don't adequately reflect this.
Is forward P/E actually correlated with realized, subsequent market returns?

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc100802.htm
by james22
Sun Sep 16, 2018 12:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Disrupted Expectations
Replies: 53
Views: 6358

Re: Larry Swedroe: Disrupted Expectations

Just please don't tell me I'm irrational to save a lot and plan around low returns and ignore valuations. Not irrational at all (as a satisficer) to invest as you do, Homer. But just maybe a little irrational to continually argue on the Theory board against ways that might better returns for those ...
by james22
Sat Sep 15, 2018 9:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pension alternatives
Replies: 41
Views: 3395

Re: Pension alternatives

grok87 wrote:
Sat Sep 15, 2018 12:02 pm
here it is
Thanks, grok.
by james22
Sat Sep 15, 2018 9:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Disrupted Expectations
Replies: 53
Views: 6358

Re: Larry Swedroe: Disrupted Expectations

Valuations don't matter. Years to retirement matter. Since I'm 5 years away, I'm 50/50 stocks/bonds. It would be difficult for my portfolio to be cut in half at this point (although still possible). Note I would be 50/50 even if valuations were "normal" or "low". Because the risk of a crash is neve...
by james22
Fri Sep 14, 2018 11:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pension alternatives
Replies: 41
Views: 3395

Re: Pension alternatives

BAC-L and WFC-L

See the 14th post for an annuity comparison:

http://boards.fool.com/a-value-opportun ... sort=whole
by james22
Mon Sep 10, 2018 8:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "6 Reasons The Rich Should Pay-Off Their Mortgage"
Replies: 196
Views: 37041

Re: "6 Reasons The Rich Should Pay-Off Their Mortgage"

Two reason I just paid for a condo with cash:

First, valuation matters. The risk free ~4% return exceeds the low expected returns of alternatives today.

Second, I'm lazy. Paying cash simplified the buying process and ongoing record keeping.
by james22
Sun Sep 09, 2018 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question: Alternatives to Berkshire
Replies: 15
Views: 1542

Re: Question: Alternatives to Berkshire

MKL, FRFHF, WTM, L, Y, TPRE, GLRE.

BAM (in a way) too.