Search found 1159 matches

by james22
Wed Oct 18, 2017 9:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe:Better To Face The Correction
Replies: 51
Views: 6583

Re: Larry Swedroe:Better To Face The Correction

garlandwhizzer wrote:
Wed Oct 18, 2017 2:17 pm
Larry is IMO a brilliant and accomplished student of the market and this piece offers insight.
I have great respect for Larry, but believe he's gone round the bend and this piece will one day be evidence of that.
by james22
Tue Oct 17, 2017 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Annuities-when and why?
Replies: 94
Views: 13501

Re: Annuities-when and why?

"Too big to fail" doesn't mean that the shareholders will be made whole. It means that the depositors don't have too much to worry about. People who buy their preferred stock are shareholders, not depositors. Source? Because: Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke also defined the term in 2010: "A too-...
by james22
Mon Oct 16, 2017 10:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Annuities-when and why?
Replies: 94
Views: 13501

Re: Annuities-when and why?

Previously I have suggested to people to use a mix of mainly WFC/PL for yield and a little WFC common to "insure" against the forced conversion. The only scenario that you get the forced conversion is the scenario wherein WFC has gone up by 3.5 from today's price, so when you eventually lose yield ...
by james22
Mon Oct 16, 2017 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Annuities-when and why?
Replies: 94
Views: 13501

Re: Annuities-when and why?

The Times had a recent article on "How to make you money last as long as you do" which has been a topic here as well. They quote a financial planner who has done some Monte Carlo simulations of the possibilities of running out of funds and found that delaying social security until age 70 helped con...
by james22
Wed Oct 11, 2017 12:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy when there's blood in the streets!
Replies: 39
Views: 6387

Re: Buy when there's blood in the streets!

If you invert and don't buy when there's dancing in the streets, you'll have cash to buy a decent quantity of stocks after a crash.
by james22
Fri Oct 06, 2017 2:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are stocks going up only because all the alternatives are lousy?
Replies: 45
Views: 4804

Re: Are stocks going up only because all the alternatives are lousy?

So the mindset, I think, goes something like this. Yes, market valuations are elevated, but, you know, low interest rates justify higher valuations. Besides, there’s really no alternative to stocks because you’ll get what, 1% annually in cash? Look at how the market has done in recent years. There’...
by james22
Wed Oct 04, 2017 3:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $10 million+ - Still Working and LBYM
Replies: 162
Views: 16721

Re: $10 million+ - Still Working and LBYM

San Francisco: The Case-Shiller Index covers five counties of the Bay Area and not just San Francisco. There are two indices for the area – the “High Tier” index and the overall index. And they behaved differently. The High Tier index (not pictured) tanked 43% during the housing bust, but has now s...
by james22
Tue Oct 03, 2017 10:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $10 million+ - Still Working and LBYM
Replies: 162
Views: 16721

Re: $10 million+ - Still Working and LBYM

The risks are extremely remote in my view for any of these triggers to happen so severely that the economic picture changes meaningfully and persistently in these areas. Again, these are the areas where so many in the US and around the world aspire to live and work and invest their money, and not j...
by james22
Tue Oct 03, 2017 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $10 million+ - Still Working and LBYM
Replies: 162
Views: 16721

Re: $10 million+ - Still Working and LBYM

In particular, I don't understand the rationale for holding large sums (7 figures) in bonds. Buy properties at the right locations instead. That's pretty much what everyone I know personally (who has the money) does, so it's nothing new, but it seems to be shocking to many here for some reason... I...
by james22
Fri Sep 29, 2017 1:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which bogleheads have a "high need to take risk"?
Replies: 51
Views: 4590

Re: Which bogleheads have a "high need to take risk"?

Doubling your income doesn't make you double as happy. Sure, but there are exceptions: some thing have a high entry cost. I've a trust and pension that will assure me a more than comfortable retirement; investing conservatively won't change that. I arguably have a high need to take risk because onl...
by james22
Sun Sep 17, 2017 3:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "36 Obvious Investment Truths"
Replies: 18
Views: 2828

Re: "36 Obvious Investment Truths"

2. If you want to earn higher returns you’re going to have to take more risk. False - "The greater the potential for reward in the value portfolio, the less risk there is." Buffett 6. If you want to hedge against stock market risk the easiest thing to do is hold more cash. True - but I'm not going ...
by james22
Sat Sep 16, 2017 9:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Howard Marks on Passive Investing
Replies: 16
Views: 3122

Re: Howard Marks on Passive Investing

larryswedroe wrote:
Fri Jan 15, 2016 9:07 pm
IMO Howard Marks is one of the smartest guys around, heard him speak as well as read much of his musings. One should pay attention.
Larry
by james22
Sat Sep 16, 2017 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in a Low-Return World: Howard Marks' 6 options
Replies: 44
Views: 4111

Re: Investing in a Low-Return World: Howard Marks' 6 options

... the Pappy Van Winkle's strategy (i.e. get out of the market when valuations are high and the trend turns negative) I'm curious, is that something you're planning to implement in practice? It's something I practice, Laurette. In the Ted Seides thread I shared what I do. I've been defensive too e...
by james22
Sat Sep 16, 2017 3:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in a Low-Return World: Howard Marks' 6 options
Replies: 44
Views: 4111

Re: Investing in a Low-Return World: Howard Marks' 6 options

In his latest memo, Howard Marks lists 6 options open to investors, considering today's high valuations and low yields: 1. Invest as you always have and expect your historic returns. 2. invest as you always have and settle for today’s low returns. 3. Reduce risk to prepare for a correction and acce...
by james22
Sat Sep 16, 2017 1:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in a Low-Return World: Howard Marks' 6 options
Replies: 44
Views: 4111

Re: Investing in a Low-Return World: Howard Marks' 6 options

Did Marks suggest an option? It would be sheer folly to expect to earn traditional returns today from investing like you’ve done traditionally (#1). With the risk-free rate of interest near zero and the returns on all other investments scaled based on that, I dare say few if any asset classes will ...
by james22
Sat Sep 16, 2017 1:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retreat to cash
Replies: 276
Views: 40148

Re: Retreat to cash

... low prospective returns have produced deep losses with enough regularity that historically, once prospective returns have dropped below about 7.5%, investors could have adopted what I've called a "Rip van Winkle" strategy: just going to sleep until stocks dropped by at least 30% or moved back t...
by james22
Sat Sep 16, 2017 1:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retreat to cash
Replies: 276
Views: 40148

Re: Retreat to cash

If frantic day-to-day attention to market movements serves to do anything, it is to convince investors that they cannot afford to miss any short-term rally; that they can't afford to miss the latest utterance from the Fed; that they can't afford to miss the latest “hot play” offered up to the masse...
by james22
Sat Sep 16, 2017 12:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ted Seides "Why I lost My Bet With Warren Buffett" - Bloomberg
Replies: 94
Views: 12409

Re: Ted Seides "Why I lost My Bet With Warren Buffett" - Bloomberg

After expense performance is all that matters - I'd give my whole portfolio over to Renaissance Technologies and pay their 5% management and 44% performance fees if I could.
by james22
Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ted Seides "Why I lost My Bet With Warren Buffett" - Bloomberg
Replies: 94
Views: 12409

Re: Ted Seides "Why I lost My Bet With Warren Buffett" - Bloomberg

Again, active ≠ active manager, Atgard.

Active investors can patiently hold cash in a way active managers cannot (without losing AUM).
by james22
Fri Sep 15, 2017 4:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ted Seides "Why I lost My Bet With Warren Buffett" - Bloomberg
Replies: 94
Views: 12409

Re: Ted Seides "Why I lost My Bet With Warren Buffett" - Bloomberg

A lot of very smug passive investors are going to learn when they look back at the beach that since the crash the one set of footprints they see are those of the central bankers that have carried them. Nice rhetoric, but would you flesh it out to the point where we can make a judgement on it? I und...
by james22
Thu Sep 14, 2017 3:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ted Seides "Why I lost My Bet With Warren Buffett" - Bloomberg
Replies: 94
Views: 12409

Re: Ted Seides "Why I lost My Bet With Warren Buffett" - Bloomberg

A lot of very smug passive investors are going to learn when they look back at the beach that since the crash the one set of footprints they see are those of the central bankers that have carried them.
by james22
Tue Sep 12, 2017 3:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Favorite Alternative Funds
Replies: 182
Views: 20795

Re: My Favorite Alternative Funds

How attractive would you find VASFX if made available, grap?

Sure would like to think they'll offer it as they do VMNFX soon.
by james22
Mon Sep 11, 2017 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Howard Marks on Passive Investing
Replies: 16
Views: 3122

Re: Howard Marks on Passive Investing

As much as I argue valuation matters, if you are new to investing you might be better ignoring it, Lauretta. Dollar cost averaging will mostly protect you (unless you are lump sum investing a significant amount). Even if not bold and self-confident though, you might still set an initial allocation m...
by james22
Mon Sep 11, 2017 8:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recent Hurricanes Provide Good Lesson For Investors
Replies: 30
Views: 4905

Re: Recent Hurricanes Provide Good Lesson For Investors

The real trouble with this world of ours is not that it is an unreasonable world, nor even that it is a reasonable one. The commonest kind of trouble is that it is nearly reasonable, but not quite. Life is not an illogicality, yet it is a trap for logicians. It looks just a little more mathematical ...
by james22
Sun Sep 10, 2017 8:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Howard Marks on Passive Investing
Replies: 16
Views: 3122

Re: Howard Marks on Passive Investing

Contrary? There is a third option, but only for bold and self-confident investors. It does not abandon the "stay the course" principle, but it allows for a mid-course correction if stormy weather threatens on the horizon. If rational forecasts indicate that one asset class offers a considerably bett...
by james22
Sun Sep 10, 2017 4:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Howard Marks on Passive Investing
Replies: 16
Views: 3122

Re: Howard Marks on Passive Investing

Yawn. Few books on investing match the high standards set by Howard Marks in The Most Important Thing. It is wise, witty, and laced with historical perspective. If you seek to avoid the pitfalls of investing, you must read this book! (John C. Bogle, Founder and former CEO, The Vanguard Group) When ...
by james22
Sat Sep 09, 2017 5:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Howard Marks on Passive Investing
Replies: 16
Views: 3122

Re: Howard Marks on Passive Investing

... the things an investor can do to achieve above average performance into two general categories: • selection: trying to hold more of the things that will do better and less of the things that will do worse, and • cycle adjustment: trying to have more risk exposure when markets rise and less when...
by james22
Tue Aug 29, 2017 7:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Wait & You'll Likely Miss Out
Replies: 74
Views: 10483

Re: Larry Swedroe: Wait & You'll Likely Miss Out

willthrill81 wrote:
Sun Aug 27, 2017 10:16 pm
A 55 year old who isn't planning to annuitize their entire portfolio will likely have stocks for another 30 years (their life expectancy).
Unless they don't draw down their assets they'll be subject to sequence of returns risk, Will.

They Ignore High Valuations & They'll Likely Miss Out.
by james22
Sun Aug 27, 2017 10:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Wait & You'll Likely Miss Out
Replies: 74
Views: 10483

Re: Larry Swedroe: Wait & You'll Likely Miss Out

Larry argues that high valuations should actually result in you increasing your stock exposure due to lower expected stock returns going forward. Good luck with that. I'm not concerned with valuations because, as Kitces pointed out years ago, the subsequent 30 year performance of stocks after histo...
by james22
Sun Aug 27, 2017 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Wait & You'll Likely Miss Out
Replies: 74
Views: 10483

Re: Larry Swedroe: Wait & You'll Likely Miss Out

Larry argues that high valuations should actually result in you increasing your stock exposure due to lower expected stock returns going forward. Good luck with that. I agree that most investors are unlikely to make such a move because they are concerned with relatively short-term (<10 years) volat...
by james22
Sun Aug 27, 2017 9:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Wait & You'll Likely Miss Out
Replies: 74
Views: 10483

Re: Larry Swedroe: Wait & You'll Likely Miss Out

willthrill81 wrote:
Sat Aug 26, 2017 5:27 pm
Larry argues that high valuations should actually result in you increasing your stock exposure due to lower expected stock returns going forward.
Good luck with that.
by james22
Fri Aug 25, 2017 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Passive investing is a Ponzi scheme
Replies: 77
Views: 6058

Re: Active investing is a Ponzi scheme

That whole interview was little more than a word salad. I agree but I was astonished at the carelessness of her rhetoric. Why? She runs a value house and manages some value funds. She has a lot of funds that trade in illiquid parts of stock markets. She sees wide spreads everyday when stocks have f...
by james22
Wed Aug 23, 2017 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Wait & You'll Likely Miss Out
Replies: 74
Views: 10483

Re: Larry Swedroe: Wait & You'll Likely Miss Out

One way to measure opportunity cost is the expected return on stocks of lets say 6 to 8% in today'e environment versus the current MM rate which 1%. So the opportunity cost is 5 to 7% per year. Likewise, if the expected return on stocks is less (Research Affiliates expects .5%, Hussman zero or nega...
by james22
Fri Aug 18, 2017 4:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Going passive is an active decision
Replies: 32
Views: 2728

Re: Going passive is an active decision

We make active decisions all the time. When we tweak our stock/bond allocation, we're being active. When we pick what our international allocation is going to be, that's an active decision. When I pick Vanguard's Total Bond Index Fund and it includes no junk bonds, that was an active decision in co...
by james22
Wed Aug 16, 2017 5:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What a Low Return Outlook Means for Your Retirement?
Replies: 42
Views: 5584

Re: What a Low Return Outlook Means for Your Retirement?

Another way: Who Ate Joe’s Retirement Money? Sequence Risk and its Insidious Drag on Retirement Wealth With the observations that starting valuation can be a useful tool in forecasting future returns and that owning stocks when they are cheaper tends to win in the long term with the additional benef...
by james22
Wed Aug 16, 2017 4:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Going passive is an active decision
Replies: 32
Views: 2728

Re: Going passive is an active decision

With respect to conventional investment strategies, understand that holding a fixed, static allocation to stocks and other investment classes, regardless of their valuations, is implicitly an active investment strategy. At rich valuations, it is a strategy that lengthens the effective maturity of t...
by james22
Wed Aug 16, 2017 4:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Going passive is an active decision
Replies: 32
Views: 2728

Going passive is an active decision

Human nature is to extrapolate the recent past. It is easy to see, given the strong performance of US equities in both absolute and relative terms, why many are suggesting they are the only asset you need to own. And the cheapest way of owning them is passively. However, the decision to be passive ...
by james22
Sun Aug 06, 2017 4:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has the "bond bubble" caused you to change your allocation?
Replies: 90
Views: 10312

Re: Has the "bond bubble" caused you to change your allocation?

Yes, using the 401k's Stable Value fund rather than TBM.
by james22
Thu Aug 03, 2017 4:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: Volatility As A Strategy
Replies: 56
Views: 5317

Re: Swedroe: Volatility As A Strategy

Funny, both Larry and Taleb favor barbell portfolios, but they've very different ideas of risk.

Here, they'd make completely opposite bets.
by james22
Wed Aug 02, 2017 3:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: Volatility As A Strategy
Replies: 56
Views: 5317

Re: Swedroe: Volatility As A Strategy

http://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-volatility-strategy It turns out that in diverse markets (equities, bonds, currencies, commodities) realized volatility most often is less than expected volatility. Yeah, but today I believe realized volatility will be much, much greater tha...
by james22
Mon Jul 31, 2017 8:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Illusion of poverty/wealth
Replies: 166
Views: 27016

Re: Illusion of poverty/wealth

An alternative: Q. The Times had a recent article on "How to make you money last as long as you do" which has been a topic here as well. They quote a financial planner who has done some Monte Carlo simulations of the possibilities of running out of funds and found that delaying social security until...
by james22
Wed Jul 26, 2017 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International correlations hit 20 year low
Replies: 33
Views: 3268

Re: International correlations hit 20 year low

Frustrating that Vanguard still doesn't offer a ISV fund.
by james22
Wed Jul 26, 2017 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Killing an Emerging Market Canard
Replies: 9
Views: 1934

Re: Larry Swedroe: Killing an Emerging Market Canard

I don't believe you can judge risk, so I'd favor the index fund over the active, but I would invest based on valuation.
by james22
Tue Jul 25, 2017 4:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Killing an Emerging Market Canard
Replies: 9
Views: 1934

Re: Larry Swedroe: Killing an Emerging Market Canard

Clearly, a “buy and hold” strategy for the broad asset class is not the right approach.

https://www.gmo.com/docs/default-source ... f?sfvrsn=2
by james22
Tue Jul 25, 2017 2:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: REITs Aren't Special
Replies: 106
Views: 9338

Re: Larry Swedroe: REITs Aren't Special

You prefer Rush, lazyday? If you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice. I know the song but don't know what you mean... choices on asset allocation? Yes. Dismiss Hussman if you'd like ( As things are, pointing at our own difficulties during the recent this half-cycle is a convenient wa...
by james22
Tue Jul 25, 2017 12:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: REITs Aren't Special
Replies: 106
Views: 9338

Re: Larry Swedroe: REITs Aren't Special

You prefer Rush, lazyday?

If you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice.
by james22
Mon Jul 24, 2017 11:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: REITs Aren't Special
Replies: 106
Views: 9338

Re: Larry Swedroe: REITs Aren't Special

With respect to conventional investment strategies, understand that holding a fixed, static allocation to stocks and other investment classes, regardless of their valuations, is implicitly an active investment strategy. At rich valuations, it is a strategy that lengthens the effective maturity of t...
by james22
Sun Jul 23, 2017 4:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How leveraged should your US market investments have been?
Replies: 16
Views: 1806

Re: How leveraged should your US market investments have been?

Better portfolios—ex post better, at least—would reduce leverage when market prices rose above Shiller fundamentals (and raise leverage when market prices fell below them).

Yep.
by james22
Sat Jul 22, 2017 8:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Quest for Perfection
Replies: 120
Views: 7233

Re: The Quest for Perfection

I get the "loosing the forest for the trees" idea - but if the trees are all reasonable, why does the forest suddenly look absurd? I have defended as reasonable most of the individual components of this portfolio in this thread and elsewhere - but why is it somehow unreasonable when it is all put t...