Search found 1675 matches

by james22
Sun May 24, 2020 5:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A different approach to asset allocation
Replies: 1468
Views: 704729

Re: A different approach to asset allocation

We can speak of diversification all we want, but we are still very much subject to the period we invest.

There are many periods (the last ten years, for example) when MT's strategy (or most any other) would have made him very, very wealthy.
by james22
Sun May 24, 2020 4:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A different approach to asset allocation
Replies: 1468
Views: 704729

Re: A different approach to asset allocation

My take: Bogleheads are probably too quick to take the wrong lesson from this and MT may be too quick to plead guilty. He actually had a good strategy but was dealt poor cards.
by james22
Sat May 23, 2020 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1473
Views: 119001

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Ben Carlson has an interesting little blog post about the relative spread between typical stocks in the S&P 500 and the small and mid cap value stocks: https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2020/05/is-the-stock-market-overvalued/ Takeaway from his Cliff Asness quote: the ratio of price to book values fo...
by james22
Sun May 10, 2020 4:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund is changing
Replies: 95
Views: 18786

Re: Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund is changing

I have to say I am extemely upset by Vanguard’s actions here. I have my I-401k with Vanguard, and was contributing a substantial amount of my retirement contributions over the last 3 years to this fund. I understood the risks investing in a sector specific fund, and it was my risk to take (not look...
by james22
Thu Apr 09, 2020 5:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What did you learn about investing or building wealth that would have helped you, if you knew about it earlier in life?
Replies: 45
Views: 3155

Re: What did you learn about investing or building wealth that would have helped you, if you knew about it earlier in li

Thanks, Portfolio7.

I think understanding early that chance will play a role in your life is as important a thing to learn as anything else.

Better to learn to roll with the punches than believe you've one shot that you'll make or miss.
by james22
Thu Apr 09, 2020 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Head Fakes and Dead Cats .. your thoughts on the rally?
Replies: 386
Views: 32131

Re: Head Fakes and Dead Cats .. your thoughts on the rally?

No one who followed valuations got out in 2000; they got out in 1996, way too early... No one? Source? This isn't an argument against passive investing. It's an argument for market environment-informed investing. How many different terms are you guys going to invent for "market-timing"? I'm fine wi...
by james22
Thu Apr 09, 2020 5:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Head Fakes and Dead Cats .. your thoughts on the rally?
Replies: 386
Views: 32131

Re: Head Fakes and Dead Cats .. your thoughts on the rally?

Triple digit golfer wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 1:13 pm
What exactly is your approach for the average investor, then?
I'd recommend a Target Retirement Fund for the average investor.

But bold and self-confident investors with skill, insight, and luck? Cautious tactical asset allocation.
by james22
Thu Apr 09, 2020 4:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has Your Asset Allocation Strategy Changed?
Replies: 73
Views: 3700

Re: Has Your Asset Allocation Strategy Changed?

Tactically, I've increased my equity allocation (shifting Stable Value into SV and EM at an average near their lows). Strategically, I now place less emphasis on valuation than the Fed's actions. I'm not sure if you're referring to a collection of ideas that pop up whenever bond interest rates are l...
by james22
Thu Apr 09, 2020 1:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Head Fakes and Dead Cats .. your thoughts on the rally?
Replies: 386
Views: 32131

Re: Head Fakes and Dead Cats .. your thoughts on the rally?

This isn't an argument against passive investing. It's an argument for market environment-informed investing . Could you explain what this means, exactly? It just sounds like another name for market timing so I'm trying to understand the difference. Well, some here won't recognize any difference, o...
by james22
Thu Apr 09, 2020 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Head Fakes and Dead Cats .. your thoughts on the rally?
Replies: 386
Views: 32131

Re: Head Fakes and Dead Cats .. your thoughts on the rally?

I realize that there are different ways people define risk. I try to stick with Buffett's definition which I believe is consistent with Boglehead philosophy. How do you believe Buffett defines risk? Because while Bogleheads believe risk and reward are positively related, he does not: If you buy a d...
by james22
Thu Apr 09, 2020 12:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Head Fakes and Dead Cats .. your thoughts on the rally?
Replies: 386
Views: 32131

Re: Head Fakes and Dead Cats .. your thoughts on the rally?

"Stay the course" does not mean "Be a deer in the headlights." Let's be hedgehog investors when it comes to adopting a goal of long-term profits and using the stock market as an instrument in reaching that goal. But let's also adopt the tactics of the fox by being responsive to the market environme...
by james22
Thu Apr 09, 2020 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What did you learn about investing or building wealth that would have helped you, if you knew about it earlier in life?
Replies: 45
Views: 3155

Re: What did you learn about investing or building wealth that would have helped you, if you knew about it earlier in li

Your band isn't going to make it big. Ha! I had a teacher who told us he had a chance to invest in Chicago before they made it big. He was still teaching us, so obviously he decided against it. I had a friend (whom I met years later) whose band was up for a potential contract, it was down to two ba...
by james22
Thu Apr 09, 2020 12:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Head Fakes and Dead Cats .. your thoughts on the rally?
Replies: 386
Views: 32131

Re: Head Fakes and Dead Cats .. your thoughts on the rally?

"Stay the course" does not mean "Be a deer in the headlights." Let's be hedgehog investors when it comes to adopting a goal of long-term profits and using the stock market as an instrument in reaching that goal. But let's also adopt the tactics of the fox by being responsive to the market environme...
by james22
Mon Apr 06, 2020 3:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: reasons for US tilt in Total US/Intl that don't also support Developed tilt in Developed/Emerging
Replies: 46
Views: 1691

Re: reasons for US tilt in Total US/Intl that don't also support Developed tilt in Developed/Emerging

Are you saying that the way young tech companies are evaluated for risk is based on old methods and thinking and because of that are seen as more risky than they really are? And therefore EM isn't as risky as it's perceived? EM markets are more risky than DM and US markets - but not because they ar...
by james22
Mon Apr 06, 2020 2:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1473
Views: 119001

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Please be clear, Taylor, are discussions of this sort welcome here or not? [ quote fixed by admin LadyGeek] Jim: I am not a monitor, but I strongly believe that discussions, both pro and con about the various aspects of investing, should be welcome on the Bogleheads Forum. Best wishes. Taylor Jack ...
by james22
Sun Apr 05, 2020 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1473
Views: 119001

Re: The BOGLEHEADS Forum

It's a little bothersome that time and time again, you chime in, calling this "risky" or "gambling" Steve: I am reminded of the Ford salesman who walked into a Mercedes showroom and became offended because someone tried to sell him a Mercedes. Best wishes Taylor Jack Bogle's Words of Wisdom (quotin...
by james22
Sat Apr 04, 2020 1:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1473
Views: 119001

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

I'm curious whether folks in this thread adjust their allocations to particular asset classes based on how relatively "cheap" an asset class is at present or whether they follow a strict, fixed asset allocation. In other words, tactical/dynamic versus fixed/static/strategic asset allocation. For ex...
by james22
Fri Apr 03, 2020 6:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1473
Views: 119001

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Boglehead advice is focused on helping the average retail investor reach their goals. Mostly, sure. That's who the Personal Investment forum is for. Some us of are "deep in the weeds" though. Isn't this Theory forum for us? I have no problem with folks who are deep in the weeds doing what they thin...
by james22
Wed Apr 01, 2020 2:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Why aren't forum members following the "Stay the course" approach?]
Replies: 372
Views: 25760

Re: [Why aren't forum members following the "Stay the course" approach?]

S&P 500 at 2600 isn't cheap enough yet for me to get greedy and invoke the TAA rules in my IPS. Just sticking to SOP, contributing every week per schedule. Ever consider anything else beside price? Might you ever hold off contributing every week if you believed the market overvalued or volatile? An...
by james22
Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?
Replies: 145
Views: 14074

Re: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?

We have a record drop in oil and travel-based stocks right now. Bogle himself said 5% of the portfolio market timing is acceptable. What is the best way to become rich from this? Be rich to start with. 5% isn't going to move the needle. It was 15% TAA and 5% Funny Money. 20% will move the needle.
by james22
Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's Not Different This Time
Replies: 348
Views: 31203

Re: It's Not Different This Time

This is a beautifully written sentence. I don’t however understand what you mean. How does one build investments on a foundation of anti-fragile personal finances? Thank you! I was referring to several different things as they apply to bad economic times: 1. Psychologically: Having a paid for house...
by james22
Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: There Is No Gold
Replies: 160
Views: 12252

Re: There Is No Gold

The problem in my town is there is no lead to be had. The local gun stores r sold out. Along with just about sold out of guns. People r panicking Bullets are easy to store, non-perishable, and they hold their value or even increase in times of crisis. So they're a lot like gold or any other commodi...
by james22
Fri Mar 27, 2020 4:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't investors like "boring"?
Replies: 29
Views: 1807

Re: Why don't investors like "boring"?

Because Ackman made $2.6B on his $27M bet.

That's why.
by james22
Fri Mar 27, 2020 4:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: There Is No Gold
Replies: 160
Views: 12252

Re: There Is No Gold

If you own gold, you likely own lead too. Good quote, but you're going to need a lot of lead (and training) if it ever comes to that point. Who do you believe is more likely to have stockpiled and trained, the one who prepared by owning gold or the one who did not? Well, for the current crises, you...
by james22
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: There Is No Gold
Replies: 160
Views: 12252

Re: There Is No Gold

Maverick3320 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:37 pm
james22 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:30 pm
If you own gold, you likely own lead too.
Good quote, but you're going to need a lot of lead (and training) if it ever comes to that point.
Who do you believe is more likely to have stockpiled and trained, the one who prepared by owning gold or the one who did not?
by james22
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: There Is No Gold
Replies: 160
Views: 12252

Re: There Is No Gold

If you own gold, you likely own lead too.
by james22
Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 63009

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Basically, you can bet on a bounce that's just about as large as the average 9% decline in the initial correction that precedes an outright bear market. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4133995-time-hedge As a reminder, bear markets evolve in distinct phases ... The first down leg is generally a de...
by james22
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 63009

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

When I'm still seeing new questions about using margins and HELOCs, we still have a long way to go. I wouldn't necessarily assume interest in margin and HELOCs mean some believe the "market" is undervalued. It certainly isn't in my case. I take interest in leverage as people seeing more upside than...
by james22
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 63009

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

When I'm still seeing new questions about using margins and HELOCs, we still have a long way to go. I wouldn't necessarily assume interest in margin and HELOCs mean some believe the "market" is undervalued. It certainly isn't in my case. I take interest in leverage as people seeing more upside than...
by james22
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who here is buying stocks today and how much?
Replies: 295
Views: 25669

Re: Who here is buying stocks today and how much?

What is your expected drawdown, grayfox? Your target allocation? I don't have a clue. S&P500 was down -30.75% on Monday 3/23. Now it's looking like we may be up three days in a rows. Maybe Monday was the bottom. But I want to be able to buy if/when it is down -50% or lower. I don't want to be in a ...
by james22
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's Not Different This Time
Replies: 348
Views: 31203

Re: It's Not Different This Time

For the love of God, please ignore the particulars of the (bad) example. Taylor's point was simply that buy-and-hold is not absolute. Changing the course might be necessary at some point to protect what you cannot risk. That should go without saying, but some Bogleheads really seemed to believe buy-...
by james22
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who here is buying stocks today and how much?
Replies: 295
Views: 25669

Re: Who here is buying stocks today and how much?

I came up with a target schedule to put money to work the stock market based on the S&P 500 drawdown, The lower it goes, the more shares I get for the amount. S&P500 DD.....Rounds spent -25.00%..........40.00% -30.00%..........45.00% -35.00%..........50.00% -40.00%..........55.00% -45.00%.............
by james22
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: There Is No Gold
Replies: 160
Views: 12252

Re: There Is No Gold

Maybe Kyle Bass can finally find a buyer for his nickels?

http://jpkoning.blogspot.com/2019/05/ky ... l-bet.html
by james22
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 63009

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

watchnerd wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:53 pm
When I'm still seeing new questions about using margins and HELOCs, we still have a long way to go.
I wouldn't necessarily assume interest in margin and HELOCs mean some believe the "market" is undervalued. It certainly isn't in my case.
by james22
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Smarter approach to "emergency funds"?
Replies: 114
Views: 9056

Re: Smarter approach to "emergency funds"?

a household should have enough financial capital withstand unexpected shocks (either a period of unemployment/underemployment or a major unplanned expenses) without undue stress. Setting aside unemployment/underemployment (as that is so specific to the individual), and assuming most repair/replacem...
by james22
Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I have seen this coming?
Replies: 107
Views: 7384

Re: Should I have seen this coming?

https://live.staticflickr.com/4715/39458149664_940b138dfd_z.jpg Were it a FACT that buying low and selling high NEVER worked, it wouldn't be so tempting. The problem is buying low and selling high does SOMETIMES work. It is a SCARE TACTIC to claim it never does, and Bogleheads who won't admit it wi...
by james22
Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I have seen this coming?
Replies: 107
Views: 7384

Re: Should I have seen this coming?

https://live.staticflickr.com/4715/39458149664_940b138dfd_z.jpg Were it a FACT that buying low and selling high NEVER worked, it wouldn't be so tempting. The problem is buying low and selling high does SOMETIMES work. It is a SCARE TACTIC to claim it never does, and Bogleheads who won't admit it wi...
by james22
Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1473
Views: 119001

Re: [Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!]

How's International Explorer (VINEX) tilting these days?

It has at times in the past tilted to value.
by james22
Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I have seen this coming?
Replies: 107
Views: 7384

Re: Should I have seen this coming?

https://live.staticflickr.com/4715/39458149664_940b138dfd_z.jpg Were it a FACT that buying low and selling high NEVER worked, it wouldn't be so tempting. The problem is buying low and selling high does SOMETIMES work. It is a SCARE TACTIC to claim it never does, and Bogleheads who won't admit it wi...
by james22
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who here is buying stocks today and how much?
Replies: 295
Views: 25669

Re: Who here is buying stocks today and how much?

Thinking of HELOC investing a lump sum today at these prices other than DCAing over the next several years until I retire.

:shock:
by james22
Mon Mar 23, 2020 5:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS go Crazy!
Replies: 271
Views: 20257

Re: TIPS go Crazy!

The Once In A Decade Bond Opportunity

https://movement.capital/the-once-in-a- ... portunity/

[Formatting edited by moderator oldcomputerguy]
by james22
Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are the same investors who said they wanted another 2008 now unwilling to buy into the market?
Replies: 31
Views: 2776

Re: Why are the same investors who said they wanted another 2008 now unwilling to buy into the market?

Over the years, I have heard from a countless number of investors who said, "I only wish it were 2008 all over again so I could purchase the market at a discount. I'm going to remain patiently on the sidelines until it is here and then my plan will call for me to purchase the equities and indexes t...
by james22
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people keep saying you have to be right twice?
Replies: 213
Views: 7603

Re: Why do people keep saying you have to be right twice?

There are Orthodox Bogleheads and Reform Bogleheads. Or maybe Basic and Advanced Bogleheads? Again, Bogle himself was OK with TAA. It should NOT be thought heretical to discuss TAA here. I understand the appeal of the Basic philosophy is undermined by the existence of the Advanced. But it is what i...
by james22
Sun Mar 22, 2020 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people keep saying you have to be right twice?
Replies: 213
Views: 7603

Re: Why do people keep saying you have to be right twice?

chevca wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 2:07 pm
I love steak and chicken. I would find it frustrating to hang out and post my love of meat in a vegetarian forum. So, I don't hang out or post in vegetarian forums. :happy
Proof again you do not understand Bogle like you imagine you do.
by james22
Sun Mar 22, 2020 2:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people keep saying you have to be right twice?
Replies: 213
Views: 7603

Re: Why do people keep saying you have to be right twice?

You ignored the post I made about the valuation thing is talked about often on BHs. If you talk about your thoughts and beliefs on it often, the point didn't apply to you anyway. :wink: Fair enough. My point though is that Bogle himself did NOT advocate only buy-and-hold. I appreciate buy-and-hold ...
by james22
Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sure wish Larry was here to opine
Replies: 27
Views: 3545

Re: Sure wish Larry was here to opine

I imagine it was more for Larry that he got tired of sharing professional advice for free with us, only to have a bunch of amateurs tell him he was wrong. But he was wrong, and continues to be wrong. There is more advice that Jack Bogle has given for free that has uplifted the lives of millions of ...