Search found 1220 matches

by james22
Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who is buying SCV, EM, Intl SC
Replies: 41
Views: 2616

Re: Who is buying SCV, EM, Intl SC

Not brave enough to buy when hitting new highs, I'm buying both SV and EM now.
by james22
Sun Dec 09, 2018 10:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vgd alt strategies fund (vasfx) open to retail investors?
Replies: 37
Views: 3029

Re: Vgd alt strategies fund (vasfx) open to retail investors?

Yeah, seems only fell the 4th from 20.92 to 20.79.

Must be just another bad Google Finance quote since the revamp.
by james22
Sun Dec 09, 2018 6:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vgd alt strategies fund (vasfx) open to retail investors?
Replies: 37
Views: 3029

Re: Vgd alt strategies fund (vasfx) open to retail investors?

I don't seem able to find historical intraday fund prices, but that's what I saw at the time.

Posted because seemed so odd.

Now I'm really curious - was it just a bad quote (Google Finance), a spike?

Anyone?
by james22
Sat Dec 08, 2018 12:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vgd alt strategies fund (vasfx) open to retail investors?
Replies: 37
Views: 3029

Re: Vgd alt strategies fund (vasfx) open to retail investors?

Vanguard Alternative Strategies Fund seeks to generate returns that have low correlation with the returns of the stock and bond markets, and that are less volatile than the overall U.S. stock market. VTSMX -3.32% VBTIX +0.19% VASFX -6.24% :? what time period is that? YTD VASFX is up like 3% From ma...
by james22
Thu Dec 06, 2018 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vgd alt strategies fund (vasfx) open to retail investors?
Replies: 37
Views: 3029

Re: Vgd alt strategies fund (vasfx) open to retail investors?

Vanguard Alternative Strategies Fund seeks to generate returns that have low correlation with the returns of the stock and bond markets, and that are less volatile than the overall U.S. stock market.

VTSMX -3.32%
VBTIX +0.19%
VASFX -6.24%

:?
by james22
Sat Nov 17, 2018 7:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Quantitative Equity Group Losing Talent
Replies: 61
Views: 4141

Re: Vanguard's Quantitative Equity Group Losing Talent

I would like to see Developed International and Emerging markets versions of their U.S. Multifactor ETF (VFMF) / U.S. Multifactor Fund Admiral Shares (VFMFX) funds. A combined Developed/Emerging Markets fund would be appreciated as well, but it would make rebalancing a little more difficult for me ...
by james22
Thu Nov 08, 2018 7:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Maximum Tax Deferral
Replies: 39
Views: 3721

Re: Maximum Tax Deferral

There's no limit to the amount I can put in Berkshire every year.
by james22
Thu Nov 08, 2018 6:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 426% return if there is a recession in 2019?
Replies: 23
Views: 4036

Re: 426% return if there is a recession in 2019?

Bogleheads encourage fiscal discipline, and fun money is poor discipline. Endearment of this behavior is contrary to Boglehead’s philosophy and doesn’t have a place on this forum. Please don’t promote such fiscal recklessness. Nonetheless, building an investment portfolio can be exciting, and tryin...
by james22
Thu Nov 08, 2018 3:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Whats your number to walk away?
Replies: 301
Views: 45837

Re: Whats your number to walk away?

So I'm curious of what that magical number is where if it could be gifted to you today, you'd make a "deal" and say "Ok I'm done making income and this is a good deal/tradeoff for me". FI, but I like my (highly compensated) work. I'm OMY until *something* happens. A health scare would do it, but I'...
by james22
Thu Oct 18, 2018 12:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear
Replies: 74
Views: 10062

Re: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear

But my main point is this: if you want to quote the Bible, then cite the Bible; if you don’t consider the Bible a valid authority, or don’t wish to be seen as citing it, then don’t cite it. Matthew 7:6 Give not that which is holy unto the dogs, neither castye your pearls before swine, lest they tra...
by james22
Wed Oct 17, 2018 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear
Replies: 74
Views: 10062

Re: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear

If you are thinking about selling, you might ask yourself what you know that Buffett doesn’t. Why is Buffett sitting on ~$110B in cash? Money was cheap, and stocks considering the long term prospects not so much anymore in his opinion I guess:) So what to do? Stocks have high valuation and bonds ar...
by james22
Wed Oct 17, 2018 1:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear
Replies: 74
Views: 10062

Re: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear

Larry wrote:If you are thinking about selling, you might ask yourself what you know that Buffett doesn’t.
Why is Buffett sitting on ~$110B in cash?
by james22
Thu Oct 04, 2018 7:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Be Prepared For Losses
Replies: 146
Views: 18992

Re: Larry Swedroe: Be Prepared For Losses

Note that the key variable here is "time to retirement", not valuations. Who Ate Joe’s Retirement Money? Sequence Risk and its Insidious Drag on Retirement Wealth With the observations that starting valuation can be a useful tool in forecasting future returns and that owning stocks when they are ch...
by james22
Sun Sep 30, 2018 12:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My CAPE10 based IPS
Replies: 103
Views: 6289

Re: My CAPE10 based IPS

Investors would love to find an easy way to tell them when to get out of the market to avoid an oncoming train on the tracks, especially at today’s elevated valuation levels. Unfortunately, valuation is not going to do that for you because expensive markets can always get more expensive, fundamenta...
by james22
Sat Sep 22, 2018 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?
Replies: 75
Views: 5490

Re: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?

Really doesn't matter what the chart says if forward P/E is not actually correlated with realized, subsequent market returns. That the market takes forward P/E seriously is just a manifestation of Bogle's Iron Law of Investing: In the short run, speculative return drives the market. In the long run,...
by james22
Fri Sep 21, 2018 5:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Diversify? Why Not 100% Global Stocks
Replies: 48
Views: 5940

Re: Why Diversify? Why Not 100% Global Stocks

willthrill81 wrote:
Fri Sep 21, 2018 1:16 pm
Not all valuation metrics are high. The forward P/E is just 17. Earnings are high, and backward looking metrics like CAPE don't adequately reflect this.
Is forward P/E actually correlated with realized, subsequent market returns?

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc100802.htm
by james22
Sun Sep 16, 2018 12:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Disrupted Expectations
Replies: 53
Views: 6306

Re: Larry Swedroe: Disrupted Expectations

Just please don't tell me I'm irrational to save a lot and plan around low returns and ignore valuations. Not irrational at all (as a satisficer) to invest as you do, Homer. But just maybe a little irrational to continually argue on the Theory board against ways that might better returns for those ...
by james22
Sat Sep 15, 2018 9:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pension alternatives
Replies: 41
Views: 3371

Re: Pension alternatives

grok87 wrote:
Sat Sep 15, 2018 12:02 pm
here it is
Thanks, grok.
by james22
Sat Sep 15, 2018 9:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Disrupted Expectations
Replies: 53
Views: 6306

Re: Larry Swedroe: Disrupted Expectations

Valuations don't matter. Years to retirement matter. Since I'm 5 years away, I'm 50/50 stocks/bonds. It would be difficult for my portfolio to be cut in half at this point (although still possible). Note I would be 50/50 even if valuations were "normal" or "low". Because the risk of a crash is neve...
by james22
Fri Sep 14, 2018 11:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pension alternatives
Replies: 41
Views: 3371

Re: Pension alternatives

BAC-L and WFC-L

See the 14th post for an annuity comparison:

http://boards.fool.com/a-value-opportun ... sort=whole
by james22
Mon Sep 10, 2018 8:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "6 Reasons The Rich Should Pay-Off Their Mortgage"
Replies: 196
Views: 36790

Re: "6 Reasons The Rich Should Pay-Off Their Mortgage"

Two reason I just paid for a condo with cash:

First, valuation matters. The risk free ~4% return exceeds the low expected returns of alternatives today.

Second, I'm lazy. Paying cash simplified the buying process and ongoing record keeping.
by james22
Sun Sep 09, 2018 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question: Alternatives to Berkshire
Replies: 15
Views: 1517

Re: Question: Alternatives to Berkshire

MKL, FRFHF, WTM, L, Y, TPRE, GLRE.

BAM (in a way) too.
by james22
Sun Aug 12, 2018 2:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 229
Views: 14786

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

I think the issue is the concept around "need". For you (us) valuations aren't actionable because you (we) are so conservative that they don't really matter to us. But if we actually lived right up against our "plan" (let's say spending 5-6% WR), then this may change our minds re our NEED to take r...
by james22
Thu Aug 09, 2018 9:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 229
Views: 14786

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

Are you arguing beta is persistent, pervasive, robust, and has a logical, risk-based and/or behavioral-based explanation?
by james22
Thu Aug 09, 2018 9:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 229
Views: 14786

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

Of course? Why do you believe buy-and-hold will deliver? Because when you are investing in public common stocks you are investing in enterprises that are attempting to be productive and profitable for their shareholders by offering products and services that are meant to improve lives and increase ...
by james22
Thu Aug 09, 2018 3:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 229
Views: 14786

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

Of course?

Why do you believe buy-and-hold will deliver?
by james22
Thu Aug 09, 2018 2:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 229
Views: 14786

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

Does CAPE10 account for changes in the way earnings are reported due to changes in US GAAP accounting rules over the last 30 years? Doing away with depreciating goodwill was a big one. I'm sure there are several others. Does it also adjust for recent tax law changes? What about changes in demograph...
by james22
Sun Jul 29, 2018 9:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vgd alt strategies fund (vasfx) open to retail investors?
Replies: 37
Views: 3029

Re: Vgd alt strategies fund (vasfx) open to retail investors?

A lot of people have that much in retirement accounts and could switch to this fund with no tax implications. Cannot imagine I would want an alt strategy fund and sure I would not pay 0.79% expense ratio for any fund. Maybe if there is someday an alt index fund with a single digit expense ratio... ...
by james22
Sun Jul 29, 2018 3:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vgd alt strategies fund (vasfx) open to retail investors?
Replies: 37
Views: 3029

Re: Vgd alt strategies fund (vasfx) open to retail investors?

Doesn't seem available - tried to Add another Vanguard mutual fund to my Roth and VASFX didn't show.

When Select from a list of our funds/Fund minimum $25,000 and up, only VUSXX, VPGDX, and VMNFX did.
by james22
Sat Jul 28, 2018 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Favorite Alternative Funds
Replies: 209
Views: 33181

Re: My Favorite Alternative Funds

Just larger than I'd like in my Roth too.

I'll buy the $250k minimum and sell off $50k the next day.
by james22
Sat Jul 28, 2018 7:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Favorite Alternative Funds
Replies: 209
Views: 33181

Re: My Favorite Alternative Funds

Your post is why I asked, grok - I'm pretty interested.
by james22
Sat Jul 28, 2018 6:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Favorite Alternative Funds
Replies: 209
Views: 33181

Re: My Favorite Alternative Funds

james22 wrote:
Tue Sep 12, 2017 3:50 am
How attractive would you find VASFX if made available, grap?

Sure would like to think they'll offer it as they do VMNFX soon.
grap?
by james22
Wed May 09, 2018 3:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Avoid Emerging Markets due to stricter securities regulation in Developed Markets? Lessons from SZSE..Maybe not?
Replies: 26
Views: 3017

Re: Avoid Emerging Markets due to stricter securities regulation in Developed Markets? Lessons from SZSE..Maybe not?

The one thing a vibrant market economy needs to produce real growth and entrepreneurship is the rule of law. Unfortunately, that does not exist in Russia. In Russia, might makes right and wealth equals power. Until this changes, no amount of funding or government support will change things. https:/...
by james22
Sat May 05, 2018 10:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unprecedented Event
Replies: 67
Views: 10089

Re: Unprecedented Event

The Surprisingly Solid Mathematical Case of the Tin Foil Hat Gun Prepper

https://medium.com/s/story/the-surprisi ... fce7d10437
by james22
Mon Apr 23, 2018 10:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard factor funds slow to catch on
Replies: 78
Views: 9411

Re: Vanguard factor funds slow to catch on

Because I'm a value investor first.

I'd love to be mostly multifactor, but not at market highs.
by james22
Sat Apr 21, 2018 10:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What If Rip Van Winkle Invested In The Stock Market?
Replies: 6
Views: 1489

Re: What If Rip Van Winkle Invested In The Stock Market?

...historically, once prospective returns have dropped below about 7.5%, investors could have adopted what I've called a "Rip van Winkle" strategy: just going to sleep until stocks dropped by at least 30% or moved back to prospective returns above 10% - a strategy that would have historically outpe...
by james22
Tue Apr 17, 2018 4:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any value investor buying a Russia fund?
Replies: 92
Views: 7479

Re: Any value investor buying a Russia fund?

Are you familiar with Russia's historical CAPE, Lauretta?

It's the mean a value investor might expect it to revert to, not some global average.
by james22
Mon Apr 16, 2018 8:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unimpressive category averages of managed futures, multialternative, market neutral, etc.
Replies: 82
Views: 7036

Re: Unimpressive category averages of managed futures, multialternative, market neutral, etc.

Insurance is a hedge (with costs), wickywack. One isn't usually unhappy that (as aristotelian answered) the events it was designed to hedge against didn't happen.

And I don't believe it possible that many have an intuitive (or otherwise) understanding of the Fed policy on valuation.
by james22
Mon Apr 16, 2018 4:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unimpressive category averages of managed futures, multialternative, market neutral, etc.
Replies: 82
Views: 7036

Re: Unimpressive category averages of managed futures, multialternative, market neutral, etc.

This is sobering data. Do you find it sobering to realize you're insurance costs without a claim? I suspect all these trendy categories all had much better returns up to the point that they became trendy. I suspect betting on beta and buy-and-holding without regard to valuation will never be more t...
by james22
Mon Apr 16, 2018 3:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any value investor buying a Russia fund?
Replies: 92
Views: 7479

Re: Any value investor buying a Russia fund?

Relative to its own historical CAPE, Russia's current CAPE is not in value territory.
by james22
Tue Apr 10, 2018 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio
Replies: 240
Views: 19858

Re: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio

Is there another forum where Swedroe interacts with like this one, nisiprius? He has posted in excess of 10,000 times and spent a lot of time answering questions on the forum, by personal message, and by e-mail. Do you believe he choose this forum by chance? If you are an advisor trolling for client...
by james22
Mon Apr 09, 2018 10:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio
Replies: 240
Views: 19858

Re: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio

Do you believe Swedroe targets this forum because its members are gullible, Elysium?

Or because its informed investors are receptive to the argument?
by james22
Mon Apr 09, 2018 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio
Replies: 240
Views: 19858

Re: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio

It is easy to see in his writings that author Larry Swedroe always uses the word " beta " to describe " low-cost total-market cap-weighted indexing ". "Beta" has negative connotations: it's the second letter of the alphabet of a foreign language (Greek)*. This is an important part of the marketing ...
by james22
Sun Apr 08, 2018 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio
Replies: 240
Views: 19858

Re: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio

Assume the worst, dbr - he's (only) a salesman. So? He believes he has a solution to a problem. The only question is - can he make the sale? In my case, the answer is no (agree with diagnosis, disagree with prescription), but I appreciate being made aware of the argument. Fine to disagree with him w...
by james22
Sun Apr 08, 2018 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio
Replies: 240
Views: 19858

Re: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio

to me seems like yet another thinly veiled Swedroe advert on etf.com for Stoneridge, AQR, etc Swedroe and his ilk, who are always trying to justify their management fees and sell books, are constantly monkeying with their theories and backtesting. Larry should be ashamed of himself. This is differe...
by james22
Sat Apr 07, 2018 10:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio
Replies: 240
Views: 19858

Re: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio

It’s important to note that valuations are at historically high levels and bond yields are at historically low levels. But that is not a clarion cry to try and time the market.

Why not?

There's little opportunity cost to wait in cash for more attractive opportunities.
by james22
Mon Apr 02, 2018 10:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone hold any defensive funds in their portfolio?
Replies: 41
Views: 4639

Re: Anyone hold any defensive funds in their portfolio?

Why settle for defensive when some few individual stocks (Berkshire, Fairfax, Oaktree, etc.) are anti-fragile?