Search found 1420 matches

by james22
Wed Nov 20, 2019 11:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vgd alt strategies fund (vasfx) open to retail investors?
Replies: 61
Views: 5963

Re: Vgd alt strategies fund (vasfx) open to retail investors?

Lame.

Was really hoping for a Vanguard alternative to QSPIX/QSPNX/QMHIX.
by james22
Wed Nov 20, 2019 12:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Howard Marks on Negative Interest Rates in Europe and Japan
Replies: 9
Views: 1122

Re: Howard Marks on Negative Interest Rates in Europe and Japan

A fund manager's public statements are not intended to be blueprints to guide the actions of individual do-it-yourself investors. Their strategy can't be condensed into a few sound bites, and even if it could, they wouldn't give it away for free. They are intended to convince you to trust their mon...
by james22
Thu Nov 14, 2019 7:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vgd alt strategies fund (vasfx) open to retail investors?
Replies: 61
Views: 5963

Re: Vgd alt strategies fund (vasfx) open to retail investors?

hdas wrote:
Wed Nov 13, 2019 9:30 am
The fund's new benchmark index is the FTSE 3-Month Treasury Bill Index, which replaces the FTSE 3-month US T-Bill Index + 4%.
Too bad.

OUT
by james22
Tue Nov 12, 2019 12:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When Value Is More Valuable
Replies: 76
Views: 5394

Re: When Value Is More Valuable

… value is currently quite cheap compared to history. In other words, value does not look like a factor with too many people chasing it today (as we are often asked), rather it looks like a shunned out-of-favor factor. At best that creates opportunity, at worst it means the last almost two, or even...
by james22
Tue Nov 12, 2019 12:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you were forced to pick an alternative asset...
Replies: 101
Views: 6156

Re: If you were forced to pick an alternative asset...

Marina slip. When we built our house for a total cost of about $65K in 1977 we had a small centerboard sailboat. We trailered it to a nearby (half hour drive) lake with very limited public access. The lake is beautiful and well known in our region. I realized public access would become more restric...
by james22
Mon Nov 11, 2019 3:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you were forced to pick an alternative asset...
Replies: 101
Views: 6156

Re: If you were forced to pick an alternative asset...

Marina slip.

Can offset the depreciation of your boat.
by james22
Wed Nov 06, 2019 5:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vgd alt strategies fund (vasfx) open to retail investors?
Replies: 61
Views: 5963

Re: Vgd alt strategies fund (vasfx) open to retail investors?

I see that, hdas. Hope is in error.

I plan to buy to a 5-10% position after the new year.
by james22
Tue Nov 05, 2019 1:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jim Simons and Renaissance Technologies
Replies: 9
Views: 1016

Re: Jim Simons and Renaissance Technologies

In Appendix 1, Zuckerman painstakingly reconstructs the 30-year track record of the firm’s crown jewel, the Medallion Fund. Although rumors of its performance have long circulated on Wall Street and in the press, the actual numbers are even more mind-blowing: From 1988 to 2018, Medallion returned 6...
by james22
Tue Nov 05, 2019 1:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Difficulty lnvesting a Windfall
Replies: 25
Views: 3297

Re: Difficulty lnvesting a Windfall

optimpessim wrote:
Tue Oct 29, 2019 8:38 pm
I am very comfortable with my AA which is roughly 60/40.
60/40 is 60/40 whatever the asset value.
by james22
Sun Oct 27, 2019 2:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When Value Is More Valuable
Replies: 76
Views: 5394

Re: When Value Is More Valuable

The Real Reason Value Has Been Lagging Growth

https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/a ... ing-Growth
by james22
Mon Oct 14, 2019 12:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BRK-A or BRK-B for our grandchildren?
Replies: 33
Views: 4271

Re: BRK-A or BRK-B for our grandchildren?

Again - you don't believe the market reflects all available information, illumination? Not very Bogleheady of you. I can't imagine a scenario where Berkshire increases in value when Buffett's dead and gone. “If I die tonight, I think the stock would go up tomorrow,” Buffett, 86, said Saturday at Ber...
by james22
Sat Oct 12, 2019 11:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BRK-A or BRK-B for our grandchildren?
Replies: 33
Views: 4271

Re: BRK-A or BRK-B for our grandchildren?

illumination wrote:
Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:06 pm
A lot of what propels Berkshire is the cult of personality, it's just going to be background noise when that's gone.
Ha. Boglehead's belief in market efficiency is as weak as mine (if directionally opposed - I believe there is a Buffett discount, rather than a premium).
by james22
Sat Oct 12, 2019 11:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When Value Is More Valuable
Replies: 76
Views: 5394

Re: When Value Is More Valuable

Executive Summary The years leading up to the 2000 stock market bubble were extraordinary and unprecedented. They caused unique pain to the portfolios of valuation-driven investors. The valuation extremes, though, created the greatest opportunity set for valuation-driven investors since the Great D...
by james22
Sun Sep 15, 2019 5:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 290
Views: 20465

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

Time diversification is not entirely fallacious though. Duration of Savings To put the short time horizon of DC participants into perspective, we can analyze savings as we would a bond: as a series of annual cash flows with a maturity date. For example, consider the scenario of a 25 year-old plan p...
by james22
Sun Sep 15, 2019 5:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 290
Views: 20465

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

Historically, the optimized portfolio of choice, and the one beloved of quant analysts everywhere, has been a balanced portfolio comprising 60% growth stocks and 40% long-dated bonds. Yet recently, this has come to look less and less like an optimized portfolio, and more and more like a “dumbbell p...
by james22
Tue Sep 10, 2019 12:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 318
Views: 18163

Re: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

GRP wrote:
Mon Sep 09, 2019 6:35 pm
My goodness, I really don't blame Larry for leaving this forum.

He's already demonstrated way more patience than the average person would, and yet people still come back with knuckle headed stubbornness.
+100
by james22
Mon Sep 09, 2019 7:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 318
Views: 18163

Re: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

I agree that one shouldn't abandon value... But one shouldn't invest ONLY in value either. Impossible to invest in value without investing in beta. Avoiding beta is theoretically possible in a long-short portfolio; any market neutral fund is trying to do just that. And increasingly the factor maven...
by james22
Mon Sep 09, 2019 7:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trouble logging on to Vanguard in the last week...
Replies: 14
Views: 1393

Re: Trouble logging on to Vanguard in the last week...

goblue100 wrote:
Mon Sep 09, 2019 7:01 am
Worked fine for me. It sounds like some of you have a page bookmarked that has changed. If you go here:
https://investor.vanguard.com/my-account/log-on

Does it work any better?
Nope. I get the same response.

Works from home though, so I'm OK. Just frustrating.

Thanks.
by james22
Mon Sep 09, 2019 3:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trouble logging on to Vanguard in the last week...
Replies: 14
Views: 1393

Re: Trouble logging on to Vanguard in the last week...

Attempting to log in, I get: We're sorry. The page you requested could not be found. If you used a bookmark or a favorite place to access this page, the link is no longer effective. Please go to the Vanguard homepage and navigate to the desired page. If you continue to experience difficulty accessin...
by james22
Mon Sep 09, 2019 3:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 318
Views: 18163

Re: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

HomerJ wrote:
Sun Sep 08, 2019 9:48 pm
I agree that one shouldn't abandon value... But one shouldn't invest ONLY in value either.
Impossible to invest in value without investing in beta.
by james22
Sun Sep 08, 2019 2:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 318
Views: 18163

Re: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

"The business press claims that the long-standing and highly popular value investing strategy—investing in low-valued stocks and selling short high-valued equities... That's a narrow definition of value investing strategy. "It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair comp...
by james22
Sun Sep 08, 2019 1:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns"
Replies: 33
Views: 3695

Re: "The Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns"

:oops: If the purpose is to confuse customers, i.e. to claim that fund class does not matter, then this chart succeeds. However, on closer look, one might observe that three of the 12 classes showed up disproportionately at the top rank so the chart is somewhat misleading. Directional evidence is bu...
by james22
Thu Sep 05, 2019 5:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which criteria should one consider when choosing between gold and commodities?
Replies: 26
Views: 1618

Re: Which criteria should one consider when choosing between gold and commodities?

Lauretta wrote:
Tue Sep 03, 2019 10:46 am
Which criteria should one consider when choosing between gold and commodities?
For what purpose?

My first thought - commodities hedge inflation (good times), gold hedges your portfolio (bad times).
by james22
Thu Sep 05, 2019 1:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US Small Value Has Been Hiding In Plain Sight All Along
Replies: 33
Views: 3437

Re: US Small Value Has Been Hiding In Plain Sight All Along

My emphasis. I always find it somewhat amusing that people say there's no small premium when you exclude the 75-83 period. All that shows you is all factors/asset classes can have long periods of relatively poor performance, and they can have long and short periods of very strong performance. The re...
by james22
Tue Sep 03, 2019 7:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 290
Views: 20465

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

vineviz wrote:
Mon Sep 02, 2019 8:47 am
When I see a portfolio that is 80% stocks and 20% stable value funds, my head explodes a little bit from the schizophrenia of a portfolio like that.
Don't underestimate limited 401k option constraints (I'd swap my Stable Value for LTT if I could).
by james22
Tue Sep 03, 2019 2:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: There And Back Again: My 180 Back To Simplicity
Replies: 15
Views: 4029

Re: There And Back Again: My 180 Back To Simplicity

He asks the question--his italics!--"Could anything rational cause me to abandon ship?" His answer--based on his macroeconomic predictions and the 78th percentile of EBIT-to-value yield--is "no." The next question he should ask is "Could anything irrational cause me to abandon ship?" Between the tw...
by james22
Tue Sep 03, 2019 1:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolio Strategy
Replies: 28
Views: 4128

Re: Rick's New Book

2Determining a required return means making certain assumptions about the market. For example, based on today’s valuations , total market stock returns are expected to earn about 6% nominally in the long-term and intermediate investment-grade bonds are expected to earn 2.5%. I would leave-out "Base...
by james22
Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Strategic Allocation
Replies: 17
Views: 1724

Re: Strategic Allocation

I believe individual investors may benefit from trading machinations because I do not believe the market is perfectly efficient. Or as someone once said: You just need to bring something to the game that's worth more than an 'average' return. Average market rate returns are a commodity and simple en...
by james22
Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Strategic Allocation
Replies: 17
Views: 1724

Re: Strategic Allocation

Because I don't confuse strategy with outcome. If I flipped a coin a hundred times and got a hundred heads, would your conclusion be that a) You had just witnessed an event with a probability of 1/2^100 (one chance in 1,267,650,600,228,229,401,496,703,205,376) or b) These weren't fair coinflips Now...
by james22
Sun Sep 01, 2019 2:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Strategic Allocation
Replies: 17
Views: 1724

Re: Strategic Allocation

Now, when a fund manager communicates directly with the public, I assume that his purpose is to convince us of his wisdom and expertise, and enough of his thinking, that we will feel comfortable and eager to place our money under his management. Sure. (Though Swedroe spends far more time here than ...
by james22
Sat Aug 31, 2019 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are You A "Sesquipedalian"?
Replies: 14
Views: 1435

Re: Are You A "Sesquipedalian"?

Disappointing.
by james22
Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Looking at investment asset allocation in more detail than stocks/bonds
Replies: 46
Views: 4938

Re: Looking at investment asset allocation in more detail than stocks/bonds

1. Because I understand my rationale. 2. Because I don't assume what works for me would necessarily work for others. 3. Because even if I believed the portfolio would work for another, they wouldn't necessarily understand the rationale and so might abandon the strategy/portfolio at an inopportune ti...
by james22
Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Strategic Allocation
Replies: 17
Views: 1724

Re: Strategic Allocation

Because I don't confuse strategy with outcome.
by james22
Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Factors" and language misuse
Replies: 71
Views: 3927

Re: "Factors" and language misuse

When someone new wants portfolio advice, I pretty much have steered people to the simpler portfolios. The Taylor Larimore 3 fund portfolio is a good one. Investing is confusing enough to newbies, discussions over factors would add more confusion. Shoot, we argue over risk, diversification, and the ...
by james22
Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap, Factor Investing Works]
Replies: 673
Views: 29021

Re: [Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap, Factor Investing Works]

This very thread proof the factor premiums are going nowhere.

Thanks, doubters! :beer
by james22
Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Strategic Allocation
Replies: 17
Views: 1724

Re: Strategic Allocation

Valuation and sentiment matter.
by james22
Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REIT's and Rick Ferri
Replies: 60
Views: 10214

Re: REIT's and Rick Ferri

A recent discussion. In general, I am on board with Bogleheads’ general admonition not to pick sectors. However, over the past 20 years, utilities have offered the least correlation to TSM of any sector (.55) with similar returns (7% CAGR). https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&...
by james22
Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best of Bogleheads - your #1 takeaway
Replies: 151
Views: 15372

Re: Best of Bogleheads - your #1 takeaway

H-Town wrote:
Tue Aug 27, 2019 1:26 pm
It's almost impossible to change people's mind.
Sure, but my sense is that most posters here argue not to "win" but to help.
by james22
Wed Aug 28, 2019 3:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Strategic Allocation
Replies: 17
Views: 1724

Strategic Allocation

Hussman describes his strategy: Asking the right questions In my view, here are some of the questions that are essential to a long-term asset allocation strategy: • How can we take prevailing stock market valuations, long-term interest rates, and short-term yields jointly into account, so that our e...
by james22
Wed Aug 28, 2019 12:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REIT's and Rick Ferri
Replies: 60
Views: 10214

Re: REIT's and Rick Ferri

Some people say the correlation between REITs and the rest of the market is too high to consider it a separate asset class. That's a matter of opinion. I fall on the side that says real estate is a separate asset class from common stocks and at times the correlation with stocks are quite low and ev...
by james22
Tue Aug 27, 2019 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REIT's and Rick Ferri
Replies: 60
Views: 10214

Re: REIT's and Rick Ferri

Some people say the correlation between REITs and the rest of the market is too high to consider it a separate asset class. That's a matter of opinion. I fall on the side that says real estate is a separate asset class from common stocks and at times the correlation with stocks are quite low and ev...
by james22
Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Factors" and language misuse
Replies: 71
Views: 3927

Re: "Factors" and language misuse

Do you imagine human behavior will change, Forester?
by james22
Tue Aug 27, 2019 2:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A theory of one's general investing mindset: 'Good enough' or 'Optimize'
Replies: 297
Views: 13492

Re: A theory of one's general investing mindset: 'Good enough' or 'Optimize'

Sure we can. If someone thought a 100% Total Bond portfolio good because was safe from market drawdowns, would they not be rewarded from the effort to identify other risks (failing to meet their needs, rising interest rates, inflation, etc.)? Even the effort to understand the rationale behind your d...
by james22
Tue Aug 27, 2019 2:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Looking at investment asset allocation in more detail than stocks/bonds
Replies: 46
Views: 4938

Re: Looking at investment asset allocation in more detail than stocks/bonds

But I’m curious - for those of you that have ventured outside of the traditional boglehead portfolio, what did you invest in/are you invested in? How did you do compared to the boglehead portfolio? How big are the non-boglehead investments as a percentage of your total investments? Would you recomm...