Search found 1340 matches

by james22
Thu May 16, 2019 6:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Trend Following As Insurance
Replies: 107
Views: 4993

Re: Larry Swedroe: Trend Following As Insurance

I'd be curious to see the handoff between momentum and value funds as stocks rise and fall, the former believing they'll continue their performance and the latter believing they'll turn around.
by james22
Mon May 13, 2019 5:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reversion to the Mean Is Dead?
Replies: 63
Views: 6547

Re: Reversion to the Mean Is Dead?

Is a basket of FAANG Large Value? Vanguard Value Index Fund Admiral Shares (VVIAX) Month-end 10 largest holdings (24.20% of total net assets) as of 03/31/2019 1 Berkshire Hathaway Inc. 2 Johnson & Johnson 3 Exxon Mobil Corp. 4 JPMorgan Chase & Co. 5 Procter & Gamble Co. 6 Pfizer Inc. 7 Verizon Comm...
by james22
Sun May 12, 2019 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 1767
Views: 120363

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

HEDGEFUNDIE wrote:
Sat May 11, 2019 10:06 pm
Of all the "risks" to the strategy, in my opinion this is the largest one.
Yikes.

It's an interesting strategy, but built on back-testing "its inexactitude is hidden; its wildness lies in wait.”
by james22
Sun May 12, 2019 12:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Emerging Markets Need Time
Replies: 60
Views: 4127

Re: Larry Swedroe: Emerging Markets Need Time

The S&P500 has had an historical run over the last decade. Not only have the returns been spectacular, those returns have come with tremendously low volatility. This essay by one of Larry’s colleagues puts the S&P500 performance in context. http://multifactorworld.com/the-sp-500-goes-supernova/ Tha...
by james22
Sun May 12, 2019 1:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Do You Like My New 'Doo
Replies: 197
Views: 39656

Re: How Do You Like My New 'Doo

Thanks for sharing, nedsaid.
by james22
Thu May 09, 2019 1:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Do You Like My New 'Doo
Replies: 197
Views: 39656

Re: How Do You Like My New 'Doo

Well, actually I don't just willy nilly buy things for the portfolio. Sorry, I didn't mean to suggest you did. And this isn't intended as criticism, of course. But if you mean to share your portfolio for others to see where you are coming from when giving advice, it's important to highlight the dif...
by james22
Thu May 09, 2019 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reversion to the Mean Is Dead?
Replies: 63
Views: 6547

Re: Reversion to the Mean Is Dead?

So reversion to the mean—RTM, the pervasive law of gravity that prevails in the financial markets—never stops. While its drumbeat is hardly regular, it never fails. For the returns of market sectors, of managed investment portfolios, and even of the market itself mysteriously return, over time, to ...
by james22
Thu May 09, 2019 5:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wes Gray: Value Investing Not Dead, Just Wait
Replies: 12
Views: 1905

Re: Wes Gray: Value Investing Not Dead, Just Wait

Yeah, that's the conundrum.

Maybe barbell SV with LG?
by james22
Thu May 09, 2019 2:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Do You Like My New 'Doo
Replies: 197
Views: 39656

Re: How Do You Like My New 'Doo

Problem is, I read about something, it makes sense, I want to try it out. As Julius Caesar might have said, "I came, I saw, and I purchased." I couldn't help but try to improve the portfolio. Maybe that's where we differ. I cannot help but try to improve my portfolio too, but the decision-making is...
by james22
Thu May 09, 2019 12:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Do You Like My New 'Doo
Replies: 197
Views: 39656

Re: How Do You Like My New 'Doo

Nothing wrong with carving out 5% for a Fun Money class either.
by james22
Thu May 09, 2019 12:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Do You Like My New 'Doo
Replies: 197
Views: 39656

Re: How Do You Like My New 'Doo

… So I have been gradually turning the ship over time. … The individual stocks have been fun. … Have toyed with the idea of replacing this with a Vanguard High Dividend ETF but not ready to do that. … Certainly, I am going to do some simplification. Lot of this stuff I have owned for a long time, n...
by james22
Wed May 08, 2019 7:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Do You Like My New 'Doo
Replies: 197
Views: 39656

Re: How Do You Like My New 'Doo

I have given a fair amount of advice on this forum and it is only fair for others to see where I am coming from. I am telling the story of my portfolio. I'm always curious to see other's portfolios, but I confess I struggle to understand where you are coming from. Unless it is it simply a bet on di...
by james22
Sun May 05, 2019 5:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alternative Portfolios
Replies: 6
Views: 741

Re: Alternative Portfolios

Pretty much, but it's not really the best example of an alternative portfolio as it's a little specific to my situation. For example, it's somewhat subject to the shifting size of my tax-deferred, tax-free, and taxable accounts. Otherwise though, only plan to shift the 8% Money Market about as I ima...
by james22
Sun May 05, 2019 2:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alternative Portfolios
Replies: 6
Views: 741

Re: Alternative Portfolios

Fearing the worst, yet wishing to hedge against this time being different, I’m betting big on active management to prove anti-fragile. 25% BRK - https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=209238 13% BAM - alternative asset manager 13% OAK - distressed debt manager (soon to be part of BAM) 8% S...
by james22
Sun May 05, 2019 2:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alternative Portfolios
Replies: 6
Views: 741

Alternative Portfolios

grap once put all his favorite alternative funds in one place. Thought might try do do the same here with some of the board’s alternative portfolios. If you’ve a portfolio that differs significantly from Taylor’s Three-Fund, please share. Off the top of my head: Random Walker (alternatives), willthr...
by james22
Sat May 04, 2019 11:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Announces Plans to Launch Commodities Fund
Replies: 148
Views: 12700

Re: Vanguard Announces Plans to Launch Commodities Fund

I think of it instead as a contrarian signal ("The Death of Equities") that inflation is anon. My impression is that this recent Business Week magazine cover about a New Era is much like the 1979 “Death of Equities” cover – more a reflection of confidence in a decade of past experience than an indi...
by james22
Fri May 03, 2019 10:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Berkshire buying stake in Amazon - my opinion
Replies: 55
Views: 5775

Re: Berkshire buying stake in Amazon - my opinion

I've been thinking of these two posts lately: To evolve as an investor, I’m eventually going to have to be honest with myself: I got something wrong here. http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2017/09/pmbtdo/ Perhaps a couple broader lessons I've learned: first, to try to do a better job of overcomi...
by james22
Fri May 03, 2019 9:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Berkshire buying stake in Amazon - my opinion
Replies: 55
Views: 5775

Re: Berkshire buying stake in Amazon - my opinion

:shock: I'm 25% BRK and not happy about it, but giving them the benefit of the doubt and look forward to their reasoning. Maybe just a hedge against their retail subsidiaries losing sales to Amazon? Or maybe they see something traditional value measures do not? 25% of "total" portfolio??? Yep.
by james22
Fri May 03, 2019 8:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Berkshire buying stake in Amazon - my opinion
Replies: 55
Views: 5775

Re: Berkshire buying stake in Amazon - my opinion

:shock:

I'm 25% BRK and not happy about it, but giving them the benefit of the doubt and look forward to their reasoning.

Maybe just a hedge against their retail subsidiaries losing sales to Amazon?

Or maybe they see something traditional value measures do not?
by james22
Wed May 01, 2019 2:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Using Valuation Metrics
Replies: 106
Views: 5176

Re: Larry Swedroe: Using Valuation Metrics

Still, be careful about what you do with information about valuations. If overvaluation was sufficient to halt a market advance, we would never have observed valuations like 1929, 2000, and today, because those advances would have ended at lesser extremes. It’s common to imagine that if valuations ...
by james22
Tue Apr 30, 2019 10:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BRK - thoughts on interesting stock
Replies: 74
Views: 10285

Re: BRK - thoughts on interesting stock

Traditionally, Buffett’s basic thing is that he is an amazing stock-picker. There is a casual sense in which that is easily explainable in folksy ways — he spends all day reading 10-Ks, he picks companies that he can understand, that sort of thing — but those explanations don’t hold up in any deep ...
by james22
Mon Apr 29, 2019 8:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why an 0.57 "low correlation" represents only an 11% volatility reduction
Replies: 56
Views: 3257

Re: Why an 0.57 "low correlation" represents only an 11% volatility reduction

The problem occurs when people want to improve the stock portion of a portfolio through the use of tilting, smart beta, or what have you. The non-quantitative statement is that you "can reduce risk by selecting asset classes with low correlation." However, if you look at e.g. PortfolioVisualizer's ...
by james22
Mon Apr 29, 2019 6:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Announces Plans to Launch Commodities Fund
Replies: 148
Views: 12700

Re: Vanguard Announces Plans to Launch Commodities Fund

In 2006, Thomas Idzorek of Morningstar published a very favorable paper on commodities in retirement portfolio, a paper that perhaps lost some credibility by having been sponsored by PIMCO. https://www.cfasociety.org/victoria/Linked%20Documents/2013%20Presentations/2013-10-22-Impacts%20of%20Shiftin...
by james22
Mon Apr 29, 2019 6:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: understanding Swedroe on total mkt fund having "no net exposure"?
Replies: 35
Views: 2774

Re: understanding Swedroe on total mkt fund having "no net exposure"?

Eugene Fama uses language like this: There’s still a third explanation, which is not based on overreaction. It says that people just don’t like small stocks and value stocks. There’s some amount of utility that people get from the nature of the stocks that they hold. So they like big stocks and the...
by james22
Sun Apr 28, 2019 1:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: understanding Swedroe on total mkt fund having "no net exposure"?
Replies: 35
Views: 2774

Re: Simplicity or Complexity?

Bogleheads: When I am confronted with a decision between simplicity and complexity, I remember our great mentor's sage advice: "Simplicity is the master key to financial success. -- We ignore the real diamonds of simplicity, seeking instead the illusory rhinestones of complexity." -- Jack Bogle Bes...
by james22
Fri Apr 26, 2019 5:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Announces Plans to Launch Commodities Fund
Replies: 148
Views: 12700

Re: Vanguard Announces Plans to Launch Commodities Fund

Rick Ferri wrote:
Fri Apr 26, 2019 8:41 am
The present value of any investment is the discounted value of its future cash flows. ...

For commodities, it's the price of the commodity. No interest, no dividends, no growth. A pile of bricks today is a pile of bricks tomorrow.
Commodities != CCFs
by james22
Wed Apr 24, 2019 1:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Announces Plans to Launch Commodities Fund
Replies: 148
Views: 12700

Re: Vanguard Announces Plans to Launch Commodities Fund

Rick Ferri wrote:
Wed Apr 24, 2019 9:39 am
Moral of the story:

Don't follow hot trends.

Rick Ferri
Do you imagine anyone interested today is interested because it is a hot trend, Rick?
by james22
Wed Apr 24, 2019 1:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Announces Plans to Launch Commodities Fund
Replies: 148
Views: 12700

Re: Vanguard Announces Plans to Launch Commodities Fund

It'll be a first day purchase for me, barring Swedroe's take. Larry was kind enough to answer a couple questions. Q. Have you shared your thoughts on Vanguard’s new Commodity Strategy fund yet? I’m curious if you’d recommend it as a “next best” alternative choice for those of us unwilling to pay fo...
by james22
Mon Apr 22, 2019 2:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Announces Plans to Launch Commodities Fund
Replies: 148
Views: 12700

Re: Vanguard Announces Plans to Launch Commodities Fund

To answer your question: yes, in the same way I stomach the opportunity cost of insurance on my condo, cars, motorcycles, and boat. Plenty of folks decline to buy insurance because it’s too expensive relative to the likelihood and scope of loss. With this latest evidence, I consider inflation prote...
by james22
Sun Apr 21, 2019 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Announces Plans to Launch Commodities Fund
Replies: 148
Views: 12700

Re: Vanguard Announces Plans to Launch Commodities Fund

White Coat Investor wrote:
Sun Apr 21, 2019 9:34 am
Ten years ago Larry was recommending CCFs, lots of small value, short term treasuries etc. None of that has done particularly well in the last decade.
You believe the next decade will look like the last?
by james22
Sun Apr 21, 2019 2:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Announces Plans to Launch Commodities Fund
Replies: 148
Views: 12700

Re: Vanguard Announces Plans to Launch Commodities Fund

To answer your question: yes, in the same way I stomach the opportunity cost of insurance on my condo, cars, motorcycles, and boat. Plenty of folks decline to buy insurance because it’s too expensive relative to the likelihood and scope of loss. With this latest evidence, I consider inflation prote...
by james22
Sun Apr 21, 2019 1:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Announces Plans to Launch Commodities Fund
Replies: 148
Views: 12700

Re: Vanguard Announces Plans to Launch Commodities Fund

To answer your question: yes, in the same way I stomach the opportunity cost of insurance on my condo, cars, motorcycles, and boat.

(I do worry about possible persistent contango due to financialization, but CCFs now seem out-of-favor.)
by james22
Sun Apr 21, 2019 12:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Announces Plans to Launch Commodities Fund
Replies: 148
Views: 12700

Re: Vanguard Announces Plans to Launch Commodities Fund

I think of it instead as a contrarian signal ("The Death of Equities") that inflation is anon.
by james22
Fri Apr 19, 2019 8:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would you be willing to temporarily change your AA?
Replies: 54
Views: 3838

Re: Would you be willing to temporarily change your AA?

I'm a fan of valuation timing, but a) I'll have bought as the market fell to half, and b) the market can fall further: So Ben Graham almost went bankrupt in the ‘30s, and this is an interesting point, I keep thinking about this all the time, so Ben Graham was reflecting in the ‘30s and he writes, if...
by james22
Wed Apr 17, 2019 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 763
Views: 71861

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Thanks, MT.

But what's too soon to know? We know the (rather low) ER.

Do you doubt Vanguard's interests? Or their ability to minimize roll costs?
by james22
Wed Apr 17, 2019 7:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 763
Views: 71861

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

market timer wrote:
Tue Apr 16, 2019 11:23 pm
I like commodities as a hedge against central banks losing control.
What's your take on CCFs? Vanguard's new offering?
by james22
Mon Apr 15, 2019 11:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BRK - thoughts on interesting stock
Replies: 74
Views: 10285

Re: BRK - thoughts on interesting stock

Warren Buffett: The Greatest Factor Investor Of All Time? Why replicate Berkshire Hathaway's performance through factors rather than gaining exposure to Buffett's expertise by simply buying the stock? ... More than $100 billion annually has been invested in factor-focused products in recent years. ...
by james22
Mon Apr 15, 2019 9:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 763
Views: 71861

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

I still think the economy is okay for now. I still see recession odds rising considerably in 2020. Maybe it will get pushed back another year or two, but at some point this growth phase will end, either in recession or an extended flat period (even flatter than the last decade, which says a lot). A...
by james22
Mon Apr 15, 2019 7:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Announces Plans to Launch Commodities Fund
Replies: 148
Views: 12700

Re: Vanguard Announces Plans to Launch Commodities Fund

adogandzic wrote:
Thu Apr 11, 2019 1:46 pm
Here are arguments that one should use trend following (or managed futures) rather than long-only:

https://www.rcmalternatives.com/2017/08 ... -strategy/

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2017/0 ... heres-how/
Interesting, thanks.
by james22
Sun Apr 14, 2019 10:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 763
Views: 71861

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Seems like some of the people in this thread would stay on 13 with the dealer showing a face card in blackjack because "they just know" the dealer has a 6 :oops: Because Bogleheads don't know what the dealer will next deal themself, they believe it doesn't matter what card/s the dealer is showing. ...
by james22
Sun Apr 14, 2019 12:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equity valuation and not caring
Replies: 50
Views: 3061

Re: Equity valuation and not caring

SovereignInvestor wrote:
Sat Apr 13, 2019 10:54 pm
The Hussman link didn't work.
Sorry, edited to correct.
by james22
Sat Apr 13, 2019 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equity valuation and not caring
Replies: 50
Views: 3061

Re: Equity valuation and not caring

SovereignInvestor wrote:
Sat Apr 13, 2019 9:04 am
In a nutshell the valuations are quite justified by lower long term rates.
Why Market Valuations are Not Justified by Low Interest Rates

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc171009.htm
by james22
Fri Apr 12, 2019 5:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Expected Vs. Realized Returns
Replies: 77
Views: 5777

Re: Larry Swedroe: Expected Vs. Realized Returns

Scenario 1: At year zero you plan to invest 10 dollars. The markets look overvalued so you spend a bit less now and invest $12 instead of $10. In year 7 you hit your goal 3-5 years early because markets performed better than expected so you sell and stop investing. Scenario 2: Same year zero condit...
by james22
Fri Apr 12, 2019 4:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Announces Plans to Launch Commodities Fund
Replies: 148
Views: 12700

Re: Vanguard Announces Plans to Launch Commodities Fund

I'm not sure what you mean by "asset prices" here. The only "asset prices" that count in measuring inflation are the prices of the items in the BLS market basket that's used to calculate the consumer price index. One of the frequent criticisms against QE is that the liquidity that was created remai...
by james22
Fri Apr 12, 2019 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Announces Plans to Launch Commodities Fund
Replies: 148
Views: 12700

Re: Vanguard Announces Plans to Launch Commodities Fund

No, I believe QE and ZIRP led to TINA which inflated asset prices.

I predict asset prices will deflate with QT and interest rate normalization.
by james22
Fri Apr 12, 2019 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Announces Plans to Launch Commodities Fund
Replies: 148
Views: 12700

Re: Vanguard Announces Plans to Launch Commodities Fund

Personally over the years, I've become less concerned about the threat of prolonged high inflation. Central banks around the world are much more focused on inflation targeting now. Oh, we've had prolonged high inflation. Just not where we usually look for it. One of the frequent criticisms against ...