Search found 5924 matches

by market timer
Tue Dec 18, 2018 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation
Replies: 60
Views: 4271

Re: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation

I don't recall MMM suggesting you use a 5% withdrawal rate without regard to market conditions, but rather that you adapt spending if there is a downturn. It's more a variable withdrawal rate. Also, he notes that early retirees often find ways to earn money after retirement.
by market timer
Wed Dec 12, 2018 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008
Replies: 241
Views: 18329

Re: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008

Also market timer who went into the Crash leveraged, lost over $1m, made it back - another very interesting thread. Not quite a million -- I only lost about $250K, but that left me $210K in debt with no assets and hardly any income at the time. Really a fascinating period. Not only was I dealing wi...
by market timer
Mon Dec 10, 2018 7:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2043
Views: 380494

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

jminv wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 5:27 am
Out of curiosity, how far out of the money are the puts you wrote and how long dated are they?
For the most part, ~5% out-of-the-money puts expiring in the next few months. Also short some longer dated at-the-money puts on CVX and XOM.
by market timer
Sat Dec 08, 2018 5:13 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: options to cover next 10 years before SS
Replies: 45
Views: 3545

Re: options to cover next 10 years before SS

Given that 5-year Treasuries yield 2.69%, I'm surprised the annuity only yields 2.91%. Would suggest shopping around for a better rate. With regard to your idea of borrowing $600K to invest in a 50/50 portfolio, I think it's very risky. With regard to your mom's expectation to spend $70K/year, it se...
by market timer
Fri Dec 07, 2018 8:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2043
Views: 380494

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Solidly up for the year on oil. Overall portfolio up around 9% YTD. Current allocation now roughly equal parts gold, oil, LT bonds, US equities, int'l equities. Nice, is this an unlevered portfolio?. H If stocks completely tank, I'm on the hook for another 40% of exposure via short puts on equity i...
by market timer
Fri Dec 07, 2018 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2043
Views: 380494

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

+7% YTD Had some nice gains in crude oil and buying the spring dip in health care REITs. How did you manage your position during the 25 bucks straight down move? Had a 15% allocation to crude up until Oct 3rd Sold half position when crude was at $76 Sold puts on CVX and XOM on Oct 23rd (equivalent ...
by market timer
Wed Dec 05, 2018 6:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 8814
Views: 1693143

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

J G Bankerton wrote:
Wed Dec 05, 2018 4:27 am
Good thing US markets are closed. Europe and Asia are still freefalling. I don't have any money left to buy dips anyway. :(
International markets just following Tuesday's action in the US. US equity futures are trading right now and up about 0.5% since Tuesday's close.
by market timer
Mon Dec 03, 2018 8:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Older Dads - how do you plan for your own retirement while still raising kids?
Replies: 38
Views: 5083

Re: Older Dads - how do you plan for your own retirement while still raising kids?

In your situation, I'd probably retire and downsize fairly soon and relocate to a state with good public colleges, where the kids can attend inexpensively and perhaps even live at home. This is basically my plan when the kids near college age. In-state tuition and cost of living are reasonable at sc...
by market timer
Sun Dec 02, 2018 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My kid's retirement
Replies: 49
Views: 3397

Re: My kid's retirement

(2) Not sure it's a great idea to deny my kids the opportunity to make it on their own. It's all academic anyway since the whole baby-modeling-to-fund-kids-IRA is largely unworkable. But, if you assume you can teach your kids enough that they let the IRA sit and don't loot it early, then how is it ...
by market timer
Sun Dec 02, 2018 9:01 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My kid's retirement
Replies: 49
Views: 3397

Re: My kid's retirement

If I were to do this, I wouldn't claim fake income from modeling. I'd probably file a schedule C for my children and call their allowance self-employment income. As I understand, Social Security taxes (both employer and employee) would need to be paid on the income, along with income taxes at the pa...
by market timer
Tue Nov 27, 2018 9:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I go back to my 6 figure job?
Replies: 20
Views: 2398

Re: Should I go back to my 6 figure job?

Negotiate humane vacation package with first company, at least 4 weeks PTO. See if you can structure a 40-hour work week.
by market timer
Mon Nov 26, 2018 8:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I'm so CHEAP! Don't think it is healthy.
Replies: 36
Views: 6851

Re: I'm so CHEAP! Don't think it is healthy.

workingovertime wrote:
Sun Nov 25, 2018 1:58 pm
My wife and I are fine financially (not great). We make about $60-70k combined
It will be much easier to increase your income than to cut your expenses.
by market timer
Sat Nov 24, 2018 12:31 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How many vacations per year is optimal?
Replies: 53
Views: 4698

Re: How many vacations per year is optimal?

Why not take upaid leave? Same as paying for vaca? Or are there job restrictions that prevent taking more leave than you have? I’ve never run out of vaca which is why I ask. Yes, unpaid leave is the same as paying for vaca. In either case, would need to be negotiated. Can't just take an extra 8 wee...
by market timer
Fri Nov 23, 2018 10:37 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How many vacations per year is optimal?
Replies: 53
Views: 4698

Re: How many vacations per year is optimal?

We typically take several with two kids: 3-week vacation to some place that involves a 10+ hour flight 1-week relaxing vacation at a beach resort 1-week vacation to a large city for food, shopping, and museums A few short getaways for long weekends This is pretty nice, but I'd still prefer to add a ...
by market timer
Wed Nov 21, 2018 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: technology index funds
Replies: 18
Views: 1526

Re: technology index funds

Bad idea.

To encourage you to sell, have a look at this article: https://www.businessinsider.com/rest-an ... ley-2017-7

Your investments are diluted by shares issued to these people and often not even expensed on financial statements.
by market timer
Tue Nov 13, 2018 8:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone change career/ start over again?
Replies: 8
Views: 1897

Re: Anyone change career/ start over again?

It would help to know the change you are considering, otherwise advice will be very generic.
by market timer
Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are we in trouble?
Replies: 106
Views: 12909

Re: Are we in trouble?

You guys will probably be fine, but I would be totally uncomfortable in this situation. Having been burned using leverage once, I'm rather debt averse, particularly with the window of peak earning years closing. Just imagine a 2008 downturn scenario where you are carrying what sounds like $1.5mn in ...
by market timer
Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: High Earners - What's Your Profession?
Replies: 702
Views: 114109

Re: High Earners - What's Your Profession?

I do math wearing a t-shirt. I used to do math wearing a suit.
by market timer
Thu Nov 01, 2018 7:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2043
Views: 380494

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

+7% YTD

Had some nice gains in crude oil and buying the spring dip in health care REITs.
by market timer
Tue Oct 30, 2018 8:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Calculating ROI for PhD
Replies: 86
Views: 4855

Re: Calculating ROI for PhD

Don't get a PhD for the ROI. Do it so you can study what you want and never have a boss. What does having a phD have to do with not having a boss? Unless you own your own company you will always have someone above you who tells you what to do. The PHD from MIT working at Citadel has a boss (like my...
by market timer
Tue Oct 30, 2018 9:06 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Calculating ROI for PhD
Replies: 86
Views: 4855

Re: Calculating ROI for PhD

Don't get a PhD for the ROI. Do it so you can study what you want and never have a boss.
by market timer
Sun Oct 28, 2018 8:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Am I doing well financially?
Replies: 162
Views: 12792

Re: Am I doing well financially?

OP, sounds like you and your wife are just getting used to the higher salary--probably buying furniture for the new home, etc. Perhaps that is bringing the saving rate down in the short run. Given your ages and your plans to have kids, it's probably going to happen pretty soon. That means either you...
by market timer
Sat Oct 27, 2018 10:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: For those waiting for a 'correction' ...
Replies: 109
Views: 1235670

Re: For those waiting for a 'correction' ...

I've had essentially a 0% equity allocation most of 2018. Added a 25% position to international stocks over the past couple months. Added a 10% position to US equities on the latest downturn by selling put options. Will continue to add to these positions if the correction intensifies. As ever, my cr...
by market timer
Sat Oct 27, 2018 8:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Working in NYC: Live in NY or NJ for tax optimization?
Replies: 25
Views: 1829

Re: Working in NYC: Live in NY or NJ for tax optimization?

I spent a couple years living in the Exchange Place area of NJ and taking the ferry to WTC. It was a pleasant commute. As mentioned, the main tax benefit is you save on the NYC resident tax. One thing I did not realize until I was hit with a tax bill later was that carry forward losses cannot offset...
by market timer
Fri Oct 26, 2018 10:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's everyone currently in?
Replies: 93
Views: 8239

Re: What's everyone currently in?

As of Friday's close,

20% gold
30% long term Treasuries
10% oil and oil majors
15% emerging markets equities
10% developed international markets equities
7% S&P 500 index
8% muni bonds
by market timer
Sun Oct 21, 2018 5:01 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Pull kids from school for vacations?
Replies: 136
Views: 6110

Re: Pull kids from school for vacations?

DW and I always try to bring our kids with us on international trips, regardless of whether school is in session. We both hated classroom settings growing up.
by market timer
Mon Oct 08, 2018 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there an arbitrage opportunity when the imputed tax rate on a municipal bond varies from one's actual tax rate?
Replies: 5
Views: 518

Re: Is there an arbitrage opportunity when the imputed tax rate on a municipal bond varies from one's actual tax rate?

There is definitely a case to be made that municipal bonds should only be used by people in relatively high income tax brackets. However, I wouldn't call it arbitrage exactly, since municipal bonds carry some risk. The real arbitrage is if you can issue tax free bonds and invest in taxable bonds, an...
by market timer
Sat Sep 29, 2018 10:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: College Student Performance Issues
Replies: 83
Views: 4698

Re: College Student Performance Issues

Time to cut the cord. She will never become an adult if you are micromanaging her. Perhaps it is reasonable to establish some minimal criteria that must be satisfied if you are to continue funding her college: a certain GPA, number of credit-hours, etc. Otherwise, let her make some mistakes and lear...
by market timer
Sat Sep 29, 2018 10:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rekenthaler: "So much for the bond bubble"
Replies: 18
Views: 2980

Re: Rekenthaler: "So much for the bond bubble"

A worst-case scenario for the bond market is not the US in 1994. It is Russia in 1998, Japan in the 1940s, Germany in the 1920s, and many other examples throughout history. The US is approaching WW2 levels of debt-to-GDP with expansionary fiscal policy at the top of the business cycle. The financial...
by market timer
Mon Sep 24, 2018 8:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 3899
Views: 1090130

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

Just started the multi-part documentary The Defiant Ones, about the collaboration between Dr. Dre and James Iovine. Highly recommended.
by market timer
Mon Sep 24, 2018 8:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Changing careers (changing gears) - Can I?
Replies: 10
Views: 1069

Re: Changing careers (changing gears) - Can I?

I'd suggest looking into product management roles at tech companies. This is a generalist role that, to use your words, "typically tells an employee the project scope and has them do it."
by market timer
Sat Sep 22, 2018 3:33 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Leveraged investing using a loan
Replies: 1
Views: 300

Re: Leveraged investing using a loan

I wouldn't call this leveraged investing. You are potentially borrowing from yourself to invest, so I don't believe the interest rate is all that relevant. Perhaps it is only to the extent that your business will owe tax on the interest, but you are unlikely to be able to write-off the interest paid...
by market timer
Mon Sep 17, 2018 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Disrupted Expectations
Replies: 53
Views: 6320

Re: Larry Swedroe: Disrupted Expectations

Dividend investors: spherical Holsteins give more milk. Target date glide slope designers: if you simply lift a spherical calf every day, by the time it is grown you will be able to lift a 1,700-pound spherical bull. LOL! I'm partial to the NEET investors: Why buy the spherical cow when you can get...
by market timer
Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Commodities have never been cheaper - time to buy?
Replies: 46
Views: 5234

Re: Commodities have never been cheaper - time to buy?

zaboomafoozarg wrote:
Mon Sep 10, 2018 8:46 am
If I recall correctly, he retired years ago at age 30ish after getting out of the -$200k "different approach to asset allocation" hole and saving up about $1M.
Valuethinker is right. I'm back at work and enjoying the booming economy, now close to the second million.
by market timer
Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Commodities have never been cheaper - time to buy?
Replies: 46
Views: 5234

Re: Commodities have never been cheaper - time to buy?

To what extent is this shaped by the rest of your personal portfolio? - you work in financial services in an area that would be affected by movements in the main market indices? - private investments by you or your family, (if any)? Yes, both of those play a significant role in my allocation decisi...
by market timer
Mon Sep 10, 2018 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Commodities have never been cheaper - time to buy?
Replies: 46
Views: 5234

Re: Commodities have never been cheaper - time to buy?

No real estate? Leveraged real estate pays you in 5 different ways and is a great inflation hedge. I believe even the current gov't posted inflation rate is the highest its been in 6 years. Gold pays you in 0 ways (maybe 1 way - capital appreciation, but not very much of it) I love real estate as a...
by market timer
Mon Sep 10, 2018 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Commodities have never been cheaper - time to buy?
Replies: 46
Views: 5234

Re: Commodities have never been cheaper - time to buy?

sergeant wrote:
Sun Sep 09, 2018 10:44 pm
How did your Tesla short go?
Still short the Dec 350 calls. They've lost over 80% of their value, so a nice gain so far. I expect to hold until they expire worthless. This is a small wager, contributing 0.3% to my portfolio, enough for a nice vacation.
by market timer
Sun Sep 09, 2018 10:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Commodities have never been cheaper - time to buy?
Replies: 46
Views: 5234

Re: Commodities have never been cheaper - time to buy?

Yes, I like commodities now.

My portfolio looks something like this:

20% gold
15% crude oil (via long-dated futures)
15% emerging markets equities
10% non-US developed markets equities
25% long term bonds
15% cash
by market timer
Tue Sep 04, 2018 8:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to Retire in Your 30's with $1 Million in the Bank
Replies: 148
Views: 18961

Re: How to Retire in Your 30's with $1 Million in the Bank

As Bob Dylan says, "You gotta serve somebody." I wonder how many "retired" stay-at-home-parents find their working spouse becomes the de facto employer. For me, there is no comparison between an intellectually challenging 9-6 and an on-call 24/7 handyman/cook/maid/nanny/errand runner.
by market timer
Sun Sep 02, 2018 8:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Lucrative careers?
Replies: 467
Views: 45555

Re: Lucrative careers?

I happen to be a software engineer at one of the FANGs with ~7 years of experience. My AGI was $375k-$400k in each of the last three years. This year my W-2 is probably going to be over $420k. How much of this is due to getting lucky with RSU appreciation? If not for the bull market, wouldn't you b...
by market timer
Sun Sep 02, 2018 7:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to Retire in Your 30's with $1 Million in the Bank
Replies: 148
Views: 18961

Re: How to Retire in Your 30's with $1 Million in the Bank

I wonder if we are seeing a rising trend in the very early retiree demographic, or if there are just some vocal outliers who make for good headlines. Every one of these articles is little more than a blog advertisement. If there is a trend, I'd point to the rise of commoditized high-IQ jobs (tech, l...
by market timer
Wed Aug 22, 2018 11:32 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Job Search
Replies: 12
Views: 1295

Re: Job Search

The job of fee-only financial advisor seems like it won't survive the roboadvisors like Wealthfront. You studied toward a career that should be relatively immune from automation. I'd suggest sticking with that and applying your interest in finance to managing your own investments.
by market timer
Mon Aug 20, 2018 8:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: BH Career advice
Replies: 18
Views: 1766

Re: BH Career advice

Absolutely. With $1.7mm in investments and a paid off house, you can easily fund your $35K/year living expenses on a 2% withdrawal rate. Go find something you enjoy doing.
by market timer
Sun Aug 19, 2018 12:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 3899
Views: 1090130

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

Shoplifters. Japanese film and recent Palme d'Or winner at Cannes Film Festival.
by market timer
Sat Aug 18, 2018 9:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: physics/math major looking for programmer/analyst job?
Replies: 89
Views: 6063

Re: physics/math major looking for programmer/analyst job?

I'd suggest looking for a job at a startup. They generally won't pay as well or offer the job security of an investment bank or FANG, but they also won't be as selective. Would help to move to NYC or San Francisco and network like crazy until finding a job. Then continue networking and learning.
by market timer
Sat Aug 18, 2018 8:55 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Books - Your 3 Best - (Nonfiction, Fiction, Financial/Investing)
Replies: 48
Views: 5680

Re: Books - Your 3 Best - (Nonfiction, Fiction, Financial/Investing)

Nonfiction Molecular Biology of the Cell, Alberts et al. Complexity, Waldrop The Most Instructive Games of Chess Ever Played, Chernev Fiction Journey to the End of the Night, Celine Confederacy of Dunces, Toole Lost Illusions, Balzac Financial/Investing Lifecycle Investing, Ayres and Nalebuff Fortun...
by market timer
Tue Aug 14, 2018 8:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is it possible to change one's career in their 40s?
Replies: 88
Views: 8391

Re: Is it possible to change one's career in their 40s?

bloom2708 wrote:
Mon Jul 23, 2018 4:21 pm
OP, are there opportunities to shift your career at your current company?
In my experience, this is the most efficient way to change careers. The is especially true mid-career, when any job you'll apply for will will require relevant prior work experience.
by market timer
Sun Aug 12, 2018 11:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 3899
Views: 1090130

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

The Vietnam War 18-hour PBS documentary by Ken Burns. Apparently I slept through most of US history class, because much of this material is new to me. Always interesting to learn more about a topic that is so familiar.
by market timer
Fri Aug 10, 2018 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Invest in Tesla?
Replies: 330
Views: 26204

Re: Invest in Tesla?

If one is using options, and one is bearish on Tesla, isn't the right thing to do to buy Puts? Preferrably Out of The Money Puts? Surely that’s the case if one is convinced that Tesla is going to $0 shortly. Market Timer says he is writing in of the money calls. I am not sure why? In principle that...