Search found 5775 matches

by market timer
Sat Jan 13, 2018 3:51 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Post your Financial Milestone Announcements Here
Replies: 106
Views: 8011

Re: Post your Financial Milestone Announcements Here

I wonder what Market Timer is up to these days. He and I were experimenting with (dying from??) leverage on the way down in 2008 and are near the same age as far as I can tell. Interesting to see his change in philosophy over time when it comes to money, work, spending the portfolio etc. Sounds lik...
by market timer
Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is it time for me to "call in rich"?
Replies: 75
Views: 12071

Re: Is it time for me to "call in rich"?

Sounds like you are mostly retiring away from a 28-year-old boss and not to pursue anything in particular. I also tried an early retirement and was pretty bored after about six months. You say you could easily get another job in another part of the world. Personally, I would try that if I were you. ...
by market timer
Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:36 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 3250
Views: 944009

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

AlphaGo on Netflix Documentary on the recent match between Google DeepMind's AlphaGo program and Go World Champion Lee Sedol, in which a computer program finally surpassed human ability in this complex game. It's a fascinating topic and well done film. I get the feeling like humans will increasingl...
by market timer
Mon Jan 01, 2018 6:35 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Your travel tips for Vienna and Budapest?
Replies: 23
Views: 1179

Re: Your travel tips for Vienna and Budapest?

Personally, I'm a big fan of cathedrals, so enjoy St. Stephen's whenever in Vienna. If you are looking to stroll around and be immersed by the city, that is a good place to do so. In Budapest, the Chain Bridge / Parliament / Buda Castle area is really impressive at night with the lights. I'd recomme...
by market timer
Sun Dec 24, 2017 9:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 3250
Views: 944009

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

Finally have HBO, so I'm getting caught up on some series I'd missed:
Westworld
Silicon Valley
Bored to Death
Band of Brothers
by market timer
Sun Dec 24, 2017 1:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Saving for the crash
Replies: 58
Views: 7336

Re: Saving for the crash

One of the economics metrics I like to check periodically is household net worth to disposable income. Currently, this metric sits at an all-time high of 673%. While this doesn't mean a crash is right around the corner, it suggests some frothiness in asset prices, and perhaps signals that now is a p...
by market timer
Fri Dec 22, 2017 9:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Saving for the crash
Replies: 58
Views: 7336

Re: Saving for the crash

Do your investment principles align at all with Bogleheads? It seems to me on the major point of picking an asset allocation and staying the course, you consistently seem to... well... time the market, market timer. If you take a snapshot at just about any moment of my life, I could tell a story ab...
by market timer
Fri Dec 22, 2017 7:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Saving for the crash
Replies: 58
Views: 7336

Re: Saving for the crash

I like holding cash right now. Short term rates are almost surely heading higher. Bonds and stocks are expensive. Let's check back in a year.
by market timer
Mon Dec 18, 2017 11:39 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Save all this money, what do you splurge on?
Replies: 181
Views: 14659

Re: Save all this money, what do you splurge on?

The biggest luxury: Not stressing about work. If I'm laid off tomorrow, that's fine with me. I can live on 4% SWR and don't need to be a sycophant to survive. I splurge on integrity and saying no to pointless projects. This has cost me massively in career advancement. The next biggest luxury: Childr...
by market timer
Sat Dec 16, 2017 10:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much do you spend on food per month, per person?
Replies: 151
Views: 8961

Re: How much do you spend on food per month, per person?

DW and I both work and don't cook. We don't even have a proper kitchen, just a microwave and toaster.

Daily estimates
Toast/cereal + coffee: $2.50/pp
Lunch: $10/pp (restaurant)
Afternoon coffee: $2.50/pp
Dinner + beer/wine: $25/pp (delivery)

Total: $1200/pp per month

I would like to cut this down.
by market timer
Wed Dec 13, 2017 10:53 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: NYC restaurant suggestion
Replies: 43
Views: 2500

Re: NYC restaurant suggestion

The Koreatown suggestion is good. They also have private karaoke rooms, if you want to try that. One of my most frequented restaurants in NYC was Petite Abeille. They often have live music and half-off beer specials. I'd recommend the mussels and Belgian beer, followed by a pub crawl in the East Vil...
by market timer
Tue Dec 12, 2017 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to do after losing $117k in stock market?
Replies: 156
Views: 16793

Re: What to do after losing $117k in stock market?

Ten years ago, I lost $210K while still in school (student loans and credit cards). My suggestion would be to contribute to tax advantaged accounts up to the limit, then put the rest toward student loans. It is nice feeling to see declining loan balances. It provides a sense of accomplishment that ...
by market timer
Tue Dec 12, 2017 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to do after losing $117k in stock market?
Replies: 156
Views: 16793

Re: What to do after losing $117k in stock market?

Ten years ago, I lost $210K while still in school (student loans and credit cards). My suggestion would be to contribute to tax advantaged accounts up to the limit, then put the rest toward student loans. It is nice feeling to see declining loan balances. It provides a sense of accomplishment that c...
by market timer
Mon Dec 11, 2017 10:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 2018 financial goals - what are yours?
Replies: 92
Views: 11442

Re: 2018 financial goals - what are yours?

Not expecting to make any major financial moves in 2018. Will just keep adding to my growing cash balance, hopefully earning a slightly higher interest rate than I did in 2017, after the Fed hikes a few times. Might start to think seriously about buying a proper house for my growing family, rather t...
by market timer
Fri Dec 08, 2017 9:05 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 3250
Views: 944009

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

The Killing of a Sacred Deer Bizarre psychological thriller and modern retelling of the myth of Iphigenia, where a father must decide which of his two kids or wife must be sacrificed to atone for his mistakes. This film is similar in style (notably awkward, emotionless dialogue) as The Lobster , wh...
by market timer
Sun Dec 03, 2017 11:02 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: It's that time of year again... buying christmas gifts
Replies: 70
Views: 6007

Re: It's that time of year again... buying christmas gifts

DW and I aren't really into gift giving. This is a big change from my childhood, where Christmas was a big deal. I spend tens of thousands a year on private school tuition and family vacations, but don't spend more than $50 for Christmas or birthdays. Don't feel like my kids are missing out on anyth...
by market timer
Sun Dec 03, 2017 10:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 3250
Views: 944009

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

Columbus Art house film about a middle-aged Korean man who is stuck in Columbus, Indiana, waiting for his architect father to pass away in the hospital (as expected by Korean tradition). He was never interested in his father's work, but befriends a local girl with a passion for architecture due to ...
by market timer
Sat Dec 02, 2017 11:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What did you do right?
Replies: 96
Views: 9701

Re: What did you do right?

My best results have come from pursuing an individual interest, rather than trying to follow the herd. Typically, whatever group you are in has a certain well-defined hierarchy of achievement. If you are in school, it might be getting a job offer with a certain employer; if you are working, maybe it...
by market timer
Fri Nov 17, 2017 7:15 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Has used furniture dropped in value dramatically?
Replies: 108
Views: 9152

Re: Has used furniture dropped in value dramatically?

You might want to try offering these items for free on Craigslist, rather than pay someone $500 to pick it up for you. I've had success in the past giving away furniture in this way--there is a big difference in demand between even $10 and free. The people who picked up free furniture seemed genuine...
by market timer
Thu Nov 16, 2017 10:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fair way to split expenses?
Replies: 105
Views: 5104

Re: Fair way to split expenses?

DW and I have been together almost 20 years with separate finances. I prefer to be able to control how I spend my income without consulting my wife. We have very different values (I much prefer a good meal and travel, she's more into fashion). Having separate finances means we don't judge each other...
by market timer
Tue Nov 14, 2017 11:11 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Keurig died...what now?
Replies: 73
Views: 5654

Re: Keurig died...what now?

We switched to Nespresso from brewed coffee sometime in the past year. I'm happy with the machine and now prefer drinking espressos before work, rather than coffee.
by market timer
Sat Nov 11, 2017 10:14 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Unnecessary Corporate Meetings
Replies: 25
Views: 2087

Re: Unnecessary Corporate Meetings

I think a large part of the reason for having meetings is to set a deadline for someone doing a project, and motivate good performance by having an audience who can criticize shoddy work.
by market timer
Sat Nov 11, 2017 2:34 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why NOT make more money?
Replies: 213
Views: 20229

Re: Why NOT make more money?

Also, I'm now able to disappear for weeks at a time. My family is embarking on a three-week Spanish immersion adventure starting this Sunday. I wouldn't be able to do so if I were focused on making more money. This is the main freedom I miss by having a job. In my ideal world, I'd have summers off ...
by market timer
Thu Nov 09, 2017 10:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why make more money?
Replies: 134
Views: 13593

Re: Why make more money?

"Sapiens" by Hariri is a great book or at least the first half where I did not have preconceived ideas or thought I had been exposed to a better theory. His points in the beginning being that even hunter and gatherers in areas where food was hard to get only spent may be 3-4 hours a day to get enou...
by market timer
Tue Oct 31, 2017 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Early-retired 35 year old with $1 million
Replies: 198
Views: 19871

Re: Early-retired 35 year old with $1 million

A paid off house and $1mn is enough to survive, even with a family. However, I suspect you'll find your way back into the work force again, sooner rather than later. When I tested the waters of early retirement, of course it was great at first, but I started to feel that I was squandering my talents...
by market timer
Mon Oct 16, 2017 8:06 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What are you driving? And would you buy your current ride again?
Replies: 130
Views: 8010

Re: What are you driving? And would you buy your current ride again?

Family cars are:

2013 Toyota Alphard (great for large groups)
2012 Mercedes E-Class

I didn't buy them and don't drive, but enjoy riding in the backseat.
by market timer
Wed Oct 11, 2017 11:46 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 3250
Views: 944009

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

Obit. Documentary about the obituary writers on the New York Times. Caught it on an Emirates flight. Surprisingly good film about the job of an obit writer and reflections on life in general.
by market timer
Sun Oct 01, 2017 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Daily Resetting Leveraged ETFs - Understanding the Downsides
Replies: 13
Views: 1417

Re: Daily Resetting Leveraged ETFs - Understanding the Downsides

I don't think there is a standard distribution determined by four moments. If only the first two moments are known, you use the normal, because the standard normal has mean 0 and standard deviation 1, and you translate and re-scale it to get the desired mean and standard deviation. But I don't know...
by market timer
Fri Sep 29, 2017 11:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Daily Resetting Leveraged ETFs - Understanding the Downsides
Replies: 13
Views: 1417

Re: Daily Resetting Leveraged ETFs - Understanding the Downsides

The sum of 250 independent identically distributed random variables should be close to a normal with 250 times the mean and variance, even if the individual values have fat tails. However, we know the daily market returns are not independent and identically distributed. In particular, volatility ha...
by market timer
Sat Sep 23, 2017 7:15 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Management career job search
Replies: 8
Views: 1004

Re: Management career job search

My generic advice would be to go into management consulting and exit to a corporate role. For a mid-career professional who has always been an individual contributor, I'd suggest looking for companies that are growing rapidly and make it known during the interview process that you are looking to tra...
by market timer
Thu Sep 21, 2017 10:11 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is the right career path for me?
Replies: 24
Views: 2704

Re: What is the right career path for me?

Make a 5-year plan but no more. You become a different person roughly every 5 years. No sense making detailed plans for someone whose tastes will be different from your own. You say you don't want to be limited to your own time and energy, which suggests avoiding a career in medicine or research. Ba...
by market timer
Tue Sep 19, 2017 7:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A different approach to asset allocation
Replies: 1436
Views: 581770

Re: A different approach to asset allocation

Net worth: $1.2mn, not counting wife's assets
Equity exposure: $0
Children: 2
by market timer
Tue Sep 19, 2017 9:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A different approach to asset allocation
Replies: 1436
Views: 581770

Re: A different approach to asset allocation

Thanks for the anniversary reminder! I thought it would be interesting to go back to 2009 and see what I would have written around the time I stopped writing in this thread. Here it is, a 10th anniversary passage. THE OUTLAW https://www.thegoodlifefrance.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/A-day-with-Cla...
by market timer
Sun Sep 17, 2017 7:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Let's talk about your FI # and family income [Financial Independence]
Replies: 183
Views: 20830

Re: Let's talk about your FI # and family income

HH income: $400K
Annual expenses: $100K
FI number: $2mn

Our expenses could easily be cut in half. Rather than aiming for retirement, I'm aiming for a good work/life balance, which I think I have right now.
by market timer
Tue Aug 15, 2017 7:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What kind of hotel do you get on business travel?
Replies: 44
Views: 3913

Re: What kind of hotel do you get on business travel?

If I'm traveling alone, I'll usually book a 4-star hotel in the business district, but don't focus on amenities.

If I'm with family, I'll upgrade a bit, look for amenities like a pool, and pick a location better suited to tourists. These hotels are usually in the Grand Hyatt / InterContinental range.
by market timer
Sat Aug 12, 2017 6:07 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Big Decisions
Replies: 6
Views: 1019

Re: Big Decisions

If I were in your situation, I'd probably sell or hedge most of the company equity now to diversify, continue working and renting for at least 18 months, then consider retiring outside of the SF Bay area. It seems a waste to buy a house in SF and retire shortly after that. You're paying a premium to...
by market timer
Mon Aug 07, 2017 9:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What determines the shape of the yield curve?
Replies: 44
Views: 3512

Re: What determines the shape of the yield curve?

The short answer is that the yield curve is based on expectations about what short term rates will do. For example, if the 1-year yield is 1% and the 2-year yield is 2%, then the market expects the overnight rate to average 1% in year 1 and 3% in year 2.
by market timer
Sun Aug 06, 2017 6:44 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 2745
Views: 877590

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

The Three-Body Problem (Remembrance of Earth's Past) , by Cixin Liu. Amazon blurb: Set against the backdrop of China's Cultural Revolution, a secret military project sends signals into space to establish contact with aliens. An alien civilization on the brink of destruction captures the signal and ...
by market timer
Sun Jul 30, 2017 10:08 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Your "at peace" moments.
Replies: 98
Views: 12314

Re: Your "at peace" moments.

Interesting topic. I'm far on the introvert side of the scale, so relish every opportunity to get away from people. Not so easy now with a family. My wife is the early bird, so coffee is already prepared by the time I wake up. Lunch hour is my sanctuary--find a place that is scenic or with a good vi...
by market timer
Sat Jul 29, 2017 10:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What are your monthly expenses?
Replies: 69
Views: 7795

Re: What are your monthly expenses?

Family of 4. Monthly budget looks something like this: Vacations: $1,500 Restaurants: $1,200 School tuition: $1,000 Rent and utilities: $900 Groceries: $500 Childcare: $400 Toys/books: $200 Other, necessities (cell, etc.): $300 Other, discretionary (mostly stuff for wife's closet): $1,500 Total: $7,...
by market timer
Sat Jul 29, 2017 2:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Philosophy major and future law student
Replies: 93
Views: 5954

Re: Philosophy major and future law student

I have never been in a position to hire anyone, but I really find this paragraph from the web page hard to believe. . Let’s face it: when you go to a job interview with a company, and you let them know that you are a philosophy major, your personal stock goes up. It shows that you are intrigued by ...
by market timer
Wed Jul 26, 2017 7:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5% fee per year to buy s&p500 with principle gaurantee
Replies: 64
Views: 6949

Re: 5% fee per year to buy s&p500 with principle gaurantee

What you are proposing is exactly the same as buying an at-the-money call option. It should be easy to verify which is a better deal by comparing the cost of the call option vs. 5% fee. Historical comparisons are not so meaningful because volatility is not constant over time. Currently, volatility i...
by market timer
Sat Jul 22, 2017 11:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What's your personal savings rate?
Replies: 135
Views: 12999

Re: What's your personal savings rate?

Regardless of my income, I try to live on 4%/year of my nest egg. I know that lifestyle is likely sustainable even if I stop working. Each paycheck is like an unexpected bonus that permanently raises our standard of living. At the moment, my savings rate is 75% of net income. This affords a lifestyl...
by market timer
Fri Jul 21, 2017 7:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's with the narrow spread in 1-year and 2-year Treasury yields (~14 bp)?
Replies: 11
Views: 1373

Re: What's with the narrow spread in 1-year and 2-year Treasury yields (~14 bp)?

Yesterday the 3-month was higher than the 6-month: 1.15 and 1.12, respectively. Today, a little wider with a 6 bps difference, 1.16 and 1.10. Seem inconsequential but a little odd. This inversion is being attributed to concern that the 3-month payment could be delayed due to a debt ceiling impasse:...
by market timer
Fri Jul 21, 2017 3:37 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Indoor activities for a 3-year-old
Replies: 61
Views: 3607

Re: Indoor activities for a 3-year-old

Thanks, all, for the suggestions. I've bookmarked this page. There's enough ideas to last through childhood.
by market timer
Fri Jul 21, 2017 3:23 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Indoor activities for a 3-year-old
Replies: 61
Views: 3607

Re: Indoor activities for a 3-year-old

Read books to him I do this now, but could do more. Usually I'll buy a book or two every week for $10/book. While it's not a major expense, I wonder if there is a more efficient investment, like a subscription to an online library, that we could use instead. Unfortunately, where I live, there are n...
by market timer
Wed Jul 19, 2017 11:48 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Indoor activities for a 3-year-old
Replies: 61
Views: 3607

Re: Indoor activities for a 3-year-old

mouses wrote:Why indoors? Kids spend too much time indoors, imho. Connect with nature. Visit a farm that allows this.
Heat, humidity, and mosquitos, mainly.
by market timer
Wed Jul 19, 2017 11:38 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Indoor activities for a 3-year-old
Replies: 61
Views: 3607

Re: Indoor activities for a 3-year-old

Now for ideas, just do whatever sounds crazy, set up a tent in your living room, let the imagination go! This is part of the problem. I feel like my imagination has withered with age, and is confined to a few narrow topics that aren't of interest to 3-year-olds. Need some kind of an age-appropriate...
by market timer
Wed Jul 19, 2017 11:32 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Indoor activities for a 3-year-old
Replies: 61
Views: 3607

Re: Indoor activities for a 3-year-old

C4NT wrote:2. Painting
This is a good one. Maybe I'll get a painting set this weekend.