Search found 5953 matches

by market timer
Fri Feb 22, 2019 7:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When the Fed lowers interest rates by buying treasuries, what duration of treasuries does it buy?
Replies: 8
Views: 972

Re: When the Fed lowers interest rates by buying treasuries, what duration of treasuries does it buy?

If that is correct, when would I know if things were normal? We'll know things are normal when the Fed tells us they are normal :) The real question is, how will the Fed know when things are normal? Practically speaking, what the Fed means by "normal" is that its balance sheet is stable. QE brought...
by market timer
Thu Feb 21, 2019 8:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Negotiating a pay raise
Replies: 23
Views: 1444

Re: Negotiating a pay raise

From what I've seen at large companies, the job is generally a good deal for the slackers and a good deal for the executives, who are really playing a completely different game from the rest of us. Everyone trying to climb the ladder is better served looking for work elsewhere or acquiring the skill...
by market timer
Thu Feb 21, 2019 10:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Negotiating a pay raise
Replies: 23
Views: 1444

Re: Negotiating a pay raise

Only time I ever received a decent raise was as a counter-offer. It was a 50% raise and promotion. Ever since then I regularly interview with other firms to make sure I'm not below market.
by market timer
Wed Feb 20, 2019 7:22 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: GLD (SPDR Gold Shares) and Taxes
Replies: 37
Views: 11998

Re: Re:

You can try to submit a summary, and hope the IRS is only matching on totals, but if they are not, they can assess a negligence penalty for your failure to follow their very explicit instructions. These figures are immaterial to my return. What's the penalty for negligence? If I'm audited and it tu...
by market timer
Tue Feb 19, 2019 8:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Favorite youtube channels?
Replies: 47
Views: 3513

Re: Favorite youtube channels?

ChessNetwork - chess lessons and commentary
by market timer
Tue Feb 19, 2019 8:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: GLD (SPDR Gold Shares) and Taxes
Replies: 37
Views: 11998

Re: Re:

And finally in more detail than necessary, coinciding with the new reporting requirements, so you now have to fill multiply 8949 pages to comply. Why not report a single line summary entry? For example, Description: GLD trust mgmt expense sales for FY 2018 Date acquired: various Date sold: various ...
by market timer
Tue Feb 19, 2019 4:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When the Fed lowers interest rates by buying treasuries, what duration of treasuries does it buy?
Replies: 8
Views: 972

Re: When the Fed lowers interest rates by buying treasuries, what duration of treasuries does it buy?

It used to be the case, back when I was in school, that the Fed bought short term bills to achieve its Fed Funds target rate. Nowadays, the Fed Funds rate target is maintained by the rate Federal Reserve banks pay to financial institutions on their excess reserves. Excess reserves used to earn no in...
by market timer
Mon Feb 18, 2019 9:21 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Need career advice to get into data science field
Replies: 10
Views: 783

Re: Need career advice to get into data science field

Just start applying for jobs. I'm sure you can find a startup that will give you a Data Scientist title based on your current background. Data Science is such a broad term that the title is almost meaningless. There are many technical roles that are not called Data Scientist that would be a good fit...
by market timer
Sun Feb 17, 2019 8:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Life As A Negative Asset
Replies: 30
Views: 2530

Re: Life As A Negative Asset

I agree with this idea in concept, but would change the phrasing/framing. Rather than say I am worth $x, I find it more informative to think that I can spend $y/year (inflation adjusted) for the remainder of my life. To convert x to y, one option is to use a 4% SWR--I think this is most common. Alte...
by market timer
Sun Feb 17, 2019 3:02 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 4166
Views: 1112480

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

Recently watched a few decent movies on HBO streaming:

Downsizing (2017)
Tangerine (2015)
Jeff, Who Lives at Home (2011)
by market timer
Mon Feb 11, 2019 8:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do I keep from becoming irrelevant
Replies: 57
Views: 7242

Re: How do I keep from becoming irrelevant

OP, I'm about your age and have similar concerns. For me, it is not just about becoming irrelevant, but the likelihood of having more experience and a better resume than the hiring manager. The older I get, the fewer jobs I'm eligible to take. Also, I moved away from doing technical work long ago, s...
by market timer
Sat Feb 02, 2019 4:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2317
Views: 403849

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Nice start to the year: +6.5%. Dialed back some exposure to commodities and to equities due to options expiring and gamma. Now at 55% equities, 15% gold, 15% oil, 10% LT bonds, 5% cash. Aside from the exact percentages, your AA looks eerily like the Permanent Portfolio. Are you done making big bets...
by market timer
Mon Jan 28, 2019 10:53 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How will you spend your retirement money?
Replies: 47
Views: 4752

Re: How will you spend your retirement money?

Assuming I retire in my 50s: -Boarding school for son and daughter -University tuition and fees -Angel investor in one or both kids' startups or entertainment careers -Wedding expenses -Housing assistance for kids Basically, above $100K/year, everything is probably going to the kids. I expect we'll ...
by market timer
Mon Jan 28, 2019 7:47 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much money did you receive from family? (Gifts/inheritance)
Replies: 127
Views: 14033

Re: How much money did you receive from family? (Gifts/inheritance)

From my parents:
At age 16, a lightly used car ($18K in today's dollars).
During college, $40K (in today's dollars) toward expenses.
For finishing my PhD, a bed worth $1500.
For my wedding, $3K.
On the birth of my first child, $5K to a UTMA.
by market timer
Mon Jan 28, 2019 7:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What did you learn from 2018 in the markets?
Replies: 104
Views: 5965

Re: What did you learn from 2018 in the markets?

What stands out for me about 2018 was the difficulty investors had in getting asset managers to sell volatility profitably for them. You had the XIV blowup in February (chart below), which seemed orchestrated to me by banks. You also had the OptionSellers.com natural gas fiasco: https://www.youtube....
by market timer
Thu Jan 24, 2019 8:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Safe to consider early retirement at 42 vs benefit of sticking it out?
Replies: 75
Views: 6131

Re: Safe to consider early retirement at 42 vs benefit of sticking it out?

You are set to retire comfortably, unless you screw up with speculative investments or enter into a bad marriage.
by market timer
Sat Jan 19, 2019 9:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2317
Views: 403849

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Also use a fudge factor of 1.2 for Roth IRA performance, i.e., $1 in Roth is worth $1.20 in taxable or traditional IRA. Using "Beardstown accounting" I'm up 22% last year. The bottom line counts. :greedy Purchasing power at the time you plan to spend the money counts. What I'm doing is just a form ...
by market timer
Sat Jan 19, 2019 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2317
Views: 403849

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Edit: How do you account for EE bonds performance, when you calculate annual performance? Do you pro-rate 3.5% return (assuming you are holding onto 20 years) or equivalent 20 year duration bond performance or some other variation For EE bonds, I currently treat them as zero coupon bonds with no em...
by market timer
Sat Jan 19, 2019 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2317
Views: 403849

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Are you US based? I thought IAU is taxed as collectibles, so better placed in IRA or 401k (Gains on collectibles held for one year or less are taxed as ordinary income—the same tax treatment as short-term capital gains (STCGs). Gains on collectibles held more than one year are taxed as ordinary inc...
by market timer
Sat Jan 19, 2019 10:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2317
Views: 403849

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Nice start to the year: +6.5%. Dialed back some exposure to commodities and to equities due to options expiring and gamma . Now at 55% equities, 15% gold, 15% oil, 10% LT bonds, 5% cash. Are you expressing your views mostly thru' options? Is it thru futures or ETF's? I use all of the above. IAU (go...
by market timer
Fri Jan 18, 2019 7:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2317
Views: 403849

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

hdas wrote:
Fri Jan 18, 2019 7:32 pm
market timer wrote:
Fri Jan 18, 2019 7:29 pm
Nice start to the year: +6.5%. Dialed back some exposure to commodities and to equities due to options expiring and gamma. Now at 55% equities, 15% gold, 15% oil, 10% LT bonds, 5% cash.
How did u end up on 2018?. H
+5.5%
by market timer
Fri Jan 18, 2019 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2317
Views: 403849

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Nice start to the year: +6.5%. Dialed back some exposure to commodities and to equities due to options expiring and gamma. Now at 55% equities, 15% gold, 15% oil, 10% LT bonds, 5% cash.
by market timer
Tue Jan 15, 2019 7:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Millionaire by 40 and How you Did it?
Replies: 162
Views: 21599

Re: Millionaire by 40 and How you Did it?

I did it by consistently earning a top 1% income, according to the table below.
hdas wrote:
Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:24 am
Image
by market timer
Mon Jan 14, 2019 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand the case for EE bonds
Replies: 392
Views: 35902

Re: I don't understand the case for EE bonds

I just purchased my annual installment of $10K EE bonds. Hope to use them for my daughter's final semester in college, assuming interest rates remain low in the interim.
by market timer
Fri Jan 04, 2019 12:40 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone here major in Economics in college?
Replies: 92
Views: 7132

Re: Anyone here major in Economics in college?

She thinks she wants to be an economics major in college because she wants to be an economist, CFO, or maybe a financial planner. Plus, math and science are (by far) her strongest subjects yet she has no desire to go into Engineering or the Sciences. She wants to go, "into business because there wi...
by market timer
Thu Dec 27, 2018 3:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2317
Views: 403849

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

After the recent sell-off in equities and crude oil, I'm now only up 2% YTD. This is a 7% drop in the past two weeks. I sold my position in long term bonds yesterday. Now at 70% equities, 20% gold, 20% oil, and -10% cash. Have you increased your equity position during the last 5-6% down? Thanks for...
by market timer
Fri Dec 21, 2018 12:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2317
Views: 403849

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

I'm a trend follower, but you make me look a dyed-in-the-wool buy and holder! :wink: Are you primarily trying to manage risk, or are you trying to generate alpha? Primarily risk management. However, I have a fairly idiosyncratic measure of risk. Most people think of risk in terms of return variance...
by market timer
Thu Dec 20, 2018 11:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2317
Views: 403849

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Out of curiosity, how far out of the money are the puts you wrote and how long dated are they? For the most part, ~5% out-of-the-money puts expiring in the next few months. Also short some longer dated at-the-money puts on CVX and XOM. Did you close out the puts before losing much? Cvx and xom also...
by market timer
Thu Dec 20, 2018 11:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2317
Views: 403849

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Out of curiosity, how far out of the money are the puts you wrote and how long dated are they? For the most part, ~5% out-of-the-money puts expiring in the next few months. Also short some longer dated at-the-money puts on CVX and XOM. Curious to know what is going on with your portfolio given the ...
by market timer
Tue Dec 18, 2018 11:57 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation
Replies: 210
Views: 21779

Re: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation

I don't recall MMM suggesting you use a 5% withdrawal rate without regard to market conditions, but rather that you adapt spending if there is a downturn. It's more a variable withdrawal rate. Also, he notes that early retirees often find ways to earn money after retirement.
by market timer
Wed Dec 12, 2018 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008
Replies: 249
Views: 20645

Re: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008

Also market timer who went into the Crash leveraged, lost over $1m, made it back - another very interesting thread. Not quite a million -- I only lost about $250K, but that left me $210K in debt with no assets and hardly any income at the time. Really a fascinating period. Not only was I dealing wi...
by market timer
Mon Dec 10, 2018 7:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2317
Views: 403849

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

jminv wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 5:27 am
Out of curiosity, how far out of the money are the puts you wrote and how long dated are they?
For the most part, ~5% out-of-the-money puts expiring in the next few months. Also short some longer dated at-the-money puts on CVX and XOM.
by market timer
Sat Dec 08, 2018 5:13 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: options to cover next 10 years before SS
Replies: 49
Views: 4030

Re: options to cover next 10 years before SS

Given that 5-year Treasuries yield 2.69%, I'm surprised the annuity only yields 2.91%. Would suggest shopping around for a better rate. With regard to your idea of borrowing $600K to invest in a 50/50 portfolio, I think it's very risky. With regard to your mom's expectation to spend $70K/year, it se...
by market timer
Fri Dec 07, 2018 8:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2317
Views: 403849

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Solidly up for the year on oil. Overall portfolio up around 9% YTD. Current allocation now roughly equal parts gold, oil, LT bonds, US equities, int'l equities. Nice, is this an unlevered portfolio?. H If stocks completely tank, I'm on the hook for another 40% of exposure via short puts on equity i...
by market timer
Fri Dec 07, 2018 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2317
Views: 403849

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

+7% YTD Had some nice gains in crude oil and buying the spring dip in health care REITs. How did you manage your position during the 25 bucks straight down move? Had a 15% allocation to crude up until Oct 3rd Sold half position when crude was at $76 Sold puts on CVX and XOM on Oct 23rd (equivalent ...
by market timer
Wed Dec 05, 2018 6:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10240
Views: 1807282

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

J G Bankerton wrote:
Wed Dec 05, 2018 4:27 am
Good thing US markets are closed. Europe and Asia are still freefalling. I don't have any money left to buy dips anyway. :(
International markets just following Tuesday's action in the US. US equity futures are trading right now and up about 0.5% since Tuesday's close.
by market timer
Mon Dec 03, 2018 8:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Older Dads - how do you plan for your own retirement while still raising kids?
Replies: 38
Views: 5242

Re: Older Dads - how do you plan for your own retirement while still raising kids?

In your situation, I'd probably retire and downsize fairly soon and relocate to a state with good public colleges, where the kids can attend inexpensively and perhaps even live at home. This is basically my plan when the kids near college age. In-state tuition and cost of living are reasonable at sc...
by market timer
Sun Dec 02, 2018 11:09 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: My kid's retirement
Replies: 49
Views: 3519

Re: My kid's retirement

(2) Not sure it's a great idea to deny my kids the opportunity to make it on their own. It's all academic anyway since the whole baby-modeling-to-fund-kids-IRA is largely unworkable. But, if you assume you can teach your kids enough that they let the IRA sit and don't loot it early, then how is it ...
by market timer
Sun Dec 02, 2018 9:01 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: My kid's retirement
Replies: 49
Views: 3519

Re: My kid's retirement

If I were to do this, I wouldn't claim fake income from modeling. I'd probably file a schedule C for my children and call their allowance self-employment income. As I understand, Social Security taxes (both employer and employee) would need to be paid on the income, along with income taxes at the pa...
by market timer
Tue Nov 27, 2018 9:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I go back to my 6 figure job?
Replies: 20
Views: 2457

Re: Should I go back to my 6 figure job?

Negotiate humane vacation package with first company, at least 4 weeks PTO. See if you can structure a 40-hour work week.
by market timer
Mon Nov 26, 2018 8:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I'm so CHEAP! Don't think it is healthy.
Replies: 36
Views: 6916

Re: I'm so CHEAP! Don't think it is healthy.

workingovertime wrote:
Sun Nov 25, 2018 1:58 pm
My wife and I are fine financially (not great). We make about $60-70k combined
It will be much easier to increase your income than to cut your expenses.
by market timer
Sat Nov 24, 2018 12:31 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How many vacations per year is optimal?
Replies: 53
Views: 4806

Re: How many vacations per year is optimal?

Why not take upaid leave? Same as paying for vaca? Or are there job restrictions that prevent taking more leave than you have? I’ve never run out of vaca which is why I ask. Yes, unpaid leave is the same as paying for vaca. In either case, would need to be negotiated. Can't just take an extra 8 wee...
by market timer
Fri Nov 23, 2018 10:37 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How many vacations per year is optimal?
Replies: 53
Views: 4806

Re: How many vacations per year is optimal?

We typically take several with two kids: 3-week vacation to some place that involves a 10+ hour flight 1-week relaxing vacation at a beach resort 1-week vacation to a large city for food, shopping, and museums A few short getaways for long weekends This is pretty nice, but I'd still prefer to add a ...
by market timer
Wed Nov 21, 2018 9:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: technology index funds
Replies: 18
Views: 1687

Re: technology index funds

Bad idea.

To encourage you to sell, have a look at this article: https://www.businessinsider.com/rest-an ... ley-2017-7

Your investments are diluted by shares issued to these people and often not even expensed on financial statements.
by market timer
Tue Nov 13, 2018 8:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone change career/ start over again?
Replies: 8
Views: 1933

Re: Anyone change career/ start over again?

It would help to know the change you are considering, otherwise advice will be very generic.
by market timer
Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are we in trouble?
Replies: 122
Views: 18398

Re: Are we in trouble?

You guys will probably be fine, but I would be totally uncomfortable in this situation. Having been burned using leverage once, I'm rather debt averse, particularly with the window of peak earning years closing. Just imagine a 2008 downturn scenario where you are carrying what sounds like $1.5mn in ...
by market timer
Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: High Earners - What's Your Profession?
Replies: 712
Views: 117097

Re: High Earners - What's Your Profession?

I do math wearing a t-shirt. I used to do math wearing a suit.
by market timer
Thu Nov 01, 2018 7:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2317
Views: 403849

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

+7% YTD

Had some nice gains in crude oil and buying the spring dip in health care REITs.
by market timer
Tue Oct 30, 2018 8:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Calculating ROI for PhD
Replies: 86
Views: 4944

Re: Calculating ROI for PhD

Don't get a PhD for the ROI. Do it so you can study what you want and never have a boss. What does having a phD have to do with not having a boss? Unless you own your own company you will always have someone above you who tells you what to do. The PHD from MIT working at Citadel has a boss (like my...