Search found 5898 matches

by market timer
Sun Oct 21, 2018 5:01 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Pull kids from school for vacations?
Replies: 136
Views: 5602

Re: Pull kids from school for vacations?

DW and I always try to bring our kids with us on international trips, regardless of whether school is in session. We both hated classroom settings growing up.
by market timer
Mon Oct 08, 2018 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there an arbitrage opportunity when the imputed tax rate on a municipal bond varies from one's actual tax rate?
Replies: 5
Views: 482

Re: Is there an arbitrage opportunity when the imputed tax rate on a municipal bond varies from one's actual tax rate?

There is definitely a case to be made that municipal bonds should only be used by people in relatively high income tax brackets. However, I wouldn't call it arbitrage exactly, since municipal bonds carry some risk. The real arbitrage is if you can issue tax free bonds and invest in taxable bonds, an...
by market timer
Sat Sep 29, 2018 10:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: College Student Performance Issues
Replies: 83
Views: 4552

Re: College Student Performance Issues

Time to cut the cord. She will never become an adult if you are micromanaging her. Perhaps it is reasonable to establish some minimal criteria that must be satisfied if you are to continue funding her college: a certain GPA, number of credit-hours, etc. Otherwise, let her make some mistakes and lear...
by market timer
Sat Sep 29, 2018 10:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rekenthaler: "So much for the bond bubble"
Replies: 18
Views: 2803

Re: Rekenthaler: "So much for the bond bubble"

A worst-case scenario for the bond market is not the US in 1994. It is Russia in 1998, Japan in the 1940s, Germany in the 1920s, and many other examples throughout history. The US is approaching WW2 levels of debt-to-GDP with expansionary fiscal policy at the top of the business cycle. The financial...
by market timer
Mon Sep 24, 2018 8:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 3761
Views: 1069349

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

Just started the multi-part documentary The Defiant Ones, about the collaboration between Dr. Dre and James Iovine. Highly recommended.
by market timer
Mon Sep 24, 2018 8:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Changing careers (changing gears) - Can I?
Replies: 10
Views: 1055

Re: Changing careers (changing gears) - Can I?

I'd suggest looking into product management roles at tech companies. This is a generalist role that, to use your words, "typically tells an employee the project scope and has them do it."
by market timer
Sat Sep 22, 2018 3:33 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Leveraged investing using a loan
Replies: 1
Views: 290

Re: Leveraged investing using a loan

I wouldn't call this leveraged investing. You are potentially borrowing from yourself to invest, so I don't believe the interest rate is all that relevant. Perhaps it is only to the extent that your business will owe tax on the interest, but you are unlikely to be able to write-off the interest paid...
by market timer
Mon Sep 17, 2018 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Disrupted Expectations
Replies: 53
Views: 6180

Re: Larry Swedroe: Disrupted Expectations

Dividend investors: spherical Holsteins give more milk. Target date glide slope designers: if you simply lift a spherical calf every day, by the time it is grown you will be able to lift a 1,700-pound spherical bull. LOL! I'm partial to the NEET investors: Why buy the spherical cow when you can get...
by market timer
Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Commodities have never been cheaper - time to buy?
Replies: 46
Views: 5140

Re: Commodities have never been cheaper - time to buy?

zaboomafoozarg wrote:
Mon Sep 10, 2018 8:46 am
If I recall correctly, he retired years ago at age 30ish after getting out of the -$200k "different approach to asset allocation" hole and saving up about $1M.
Valuethinker is right. I'm back at work and enjoying the booming economy, now close to the second million.
by market timer
Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Commodities have never been cheaper - time to buy?
Replies: 46
Views: 5140

Re: Commodities have never been cheaper - time to buy?

To what extent is this shaped by the rest of your personal portfolio? - you work in financial services in an area that would be affected by movements in the main market indices? - private investments by you or your family, (if any)? Yes, both of those play a significant role in my allocation decisi...
by market timer
Mon Sep 10, 2018 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Commodities have never been cheaper - time to buy?
Replies: 46
Views: 5140

Re: Commodities have never been cheaper - time to buy?

No real estate? Leveraged real estate pays you in 5 different ways and is a great inflation hedge. I believe even the current gov't posted inflation rate is the highest its been in 6 years. Gold pays you in 0 ways (maybe 1 way - capital appreciation, but not very much of it) I love real estate as a...
by market timer
Mon Sep 10, 2018 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Commodities have never been cheaper - time to buy?
Replies: 46
Views: 5140

Re: Commodities have never been cheaper - time to buy?

sergeant wrote:
Sun Sep 09, 2018 10:44 pm
How did your Tesla short go?
Still short the Dec 350 calls. They've lost over 80% of their value, so a nice gain so far. I expect to hold until they expire worthless. This is a small wager, contributing 0.3% to my portfolio, enough for a nice vacation.
by market timer
Sun Sep 09, 2018 10:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Commodities have never been cheaper - time to buy?
Replies: 46
Views: 5140

Re: Commodities have never been cheaper - time to buy?

Yes, I like commodities now.

My portfolio looks something like this:

20% gold
15% crude oil (via long-dated futures)
15% emerging markets equities
10% non-US developed markets equities
25% long term bonds
15% cash
by market timer
Tue Sep 04, 2018 8:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to Retire in Your 30's with $1 Million in the Bank
Replies: 148
Views: 18533

Re: How to Retire in Your 30's with $1 Million in the Bank

As Bob Dylan says, "You gotta serve somebody." I wonder how many "retired" stay-at-home-parents find their working spouse becomes the de facto employer. For me, there is no comparison between an intellectually challenging 9-6 and an on-call 24/7 handyman/cook/maid/nanny/errand runner.
by market timer
Sun Sep 02, 2018 8:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Lucrative careers?
Replies: 467
Views: 44060

Re: Lucrative careers?

I happen to be a software engineer at one of the FANGs with ~7 years of experience. My AGI was $375k-$400k in each of the last three years. This year my W-2 is probably going to be over $420k. How much of this is due to getting lucky with RSU appreciation? If not for the bull market, wouldn't you b...
by market timer
Sun Sep 02, 2018 7:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to Retire in Your 30's with $1 Million in the Bank
Replies: 148
Views: 18533

Re: How to Retire in Your 30's with $1 Million in the Bank

I wonder if we are seeing a rising trend in the very early retiree demographic, or if there are just some vocal outliers who make for good headlines. Every one of these articles is little more than a blog advertisement. If there is a trend, I'd point to the rise of commoditized high-IQ jobs (tech, l...
by market timer
Wed Aug 22, 2018 11:32 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Job Search
Replies: 12
Views: 1267

Re: Job Search

The job of fee-only financial advisor seems like it won't survive the roboadvisors like Wealthfront. You studied toward a career that should be relatively immune from automation. I'd suggest sticking with that and applying your interest in finance to managing your own investments.
by market timer
Mon Aug 20, 2018 8:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: BH Career advice
Replies: 18
Views: 1731

Re: BH Career advice

Absolutely. With $1.7mm in investments and a paid off house, you can easily fund your $35K/year living expenses on a 2% withdrawal rate. Go find something you enjoy doing.
by market timer
Sun Aug 19, 2018 12:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 3761
Views: 1069349

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

Shoplifters. Japanese film and recent Palme d'Or winner at Cannes Film Festival.
by market timer
Sat Aug 18, 2018 9:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: physics/math major looking for programmer/analyst job?
Replies: 89
Views: 5760

Re: physics/math major looking for programmer/analyst job?

I'd suggest looking for a job at a startup. They generally won't pay as well or offer the job security of an investment bank or FANG, but they also won't be as selective. Would help to move to NYC or San Francisco and network like crazy until finding a job. Then continue networking and learning.
by market timer
Sat Aug 18, 2018 8:55 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Books - Your 3 Best - (Nonfiction, Fiction, Financial/Investing)
Replies: 48
Views: 5536

Re: Books - Your 3 Best - (Nonfiction, Fiction, Financial/Investing)

Nonfiction Molecular Biology of the Cell, Alberts et al. Complexity, Waldrop The Most Instructive Games of Chess Ever Played, Chernev Fiction Journey to the End of the Night, Celine Confederacy of Dunces, Toole Lost Illusions, Balzac Financial/Investing Lifecycle Investing, Ayres and Nalebuff Fortun...
by market timer
Tue Aug 14, 2018 8:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is it possible to change one's career in their 40s?
Replies: 88
Views: 8195

Re: Is it possible to change one's career in their 40s?

bloom2708 wrote:
Mon Jul 23, 2018 4:21 pm
OP, are there opportunities to shift your career at your current company?
In my experience, this is the most efficient way to change careers. The is especially true mid-career, when any job you'll apply for will will require relevant prior work experience.
by market timer
Sun Aug 12, 2018 11:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 3761
Views: 1069349

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

The Vietnam War 18-hour PBS documentary by Ken Burns. Apparently I slept through most of US history class, because much of this material is new to me. Always interesting to learn more about a topic that is so familiar.
by market timer
Fri Aug 10, 2018 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Invest in Tesla?
Replies: 330
Views: 25576

Re: Invest in Tesla?

If one is using options, and one is bearish on Tesla, isn't the right thing to do to buy Puts? Preferrably Out of The Money Puts? Surely that’s the case if one is convinced that Tesla is going to $0 shortly. Market Timer says he is writing in of the money calls. I am not sure why? In principle that...
by market timer
Sun Aug 05, 2018 8:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Will you pay for your kids' college/graduate education?
Replies: 366
Views: 15631

Re: Will you pay for your kids' college/graduate education?

We still have some time to decide. Most likely, I'll cover costs up to State U. levels. If either of my kids gets into a school in the top 6 or so, I'd be inclined to cover that. Grad school would be on them, unless we're very rich.
by market timer
Sun Aug 05, 2018 1:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg commodities index still in contango
Replies: 88
Views: 8110

Re: Bloomberg commodities index still in contango

What is the idea behind waiting for backwardation? I haven't seen where this has any predictive power for returns. Some commodities that are cheap to store and have low consumption, such as gold, rarely trade in backwardation. Contango in the gold market arises from the cost of capital. The forward ...
by market timer
Fri Aug 03, 2018 10:10 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Question to retirees - money or work/life balance?
Replies: 46
Views: 5501

Re: Question to retirees - money or work/life balance?

For people climbing the corporate ladder, I'm not sure money is the primary motivator. I suspect power, influence, new challenges, and winning "the game" are more powerful motivators.
by market timer
Mon Jul 30, 2018 8:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Realities of Early Retirement Model (FIRE)?
Replies: 96
Views: 9979

Re: Realities of Early Retirement Model (FIRE)?

bhsince87 wrote:
Mon Jul 30, 2018 3:11 pm
For my wife and I, age 53 and 51, current unsubsidized cost is $28k per year, with an additional $4k out of pocket max.
Regardless of who pays, such high health care expenses are not sustainable.
by market timer
Mon Jul 30, 2018 8:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Realities of Early Retirement Model (FIRE)?
Replies: 96
Views: 9979

Re: Realities of Early Retirement Model (FIRE)?

I think it's wise to keep in mind that living on $30K while generating lots of passive income isn't the same as living on $30K when draining one's portfolio, and I wonder what happens when the next market crash happens. Yes, will be interesting to watch. The US currently has an unprecedented level ...
by market timer
Mon Jul 30, 2018 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where is the money going?
Replies: 21
Views: 2952

Re: Where is the money going?

Essentially, everything has been going up for the past nine years. Why would it surprise you that asset prices can also move down together?
by market timer
Wed Jul 25, 2018 8:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 206
Views: 15766

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

I'll have to read the Ayres and Nalebuff article. My concern would be what happens if the leveraged investment runs into trouble right away, saddling the already indebted young persons with even more debt. I'll be curious to see how they have addressed this scenario. It puts a strain on family rela...
by market timer
Wed Jul 25, 2018 8:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7405
Views: 1554388

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Facebook is down over 20% after hours on poor revenue guidance. Nasdaq down 1.5%. Maybe we just passed the peak?
by market timer
Tue Jul 24, 2018 8:16 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What investment/finance book to read next
Replies: 21
Views: 1293

Re: What investment/finance book to read next

Capital Ideas, by Peter Bernstein
by market timer
Sat Jul 21, 2018 10:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value Stocks and Margin Loans as Inflation Hedges
Replies: 12
Views: 1017

Re: Value Stocks and Margin Loans as Inflation Hedges

As others have noted, a margin loan is not a great way to benefit from inflation, because short term rates will tend to rise with the inflation rate. Ideally, you want to borrow long term at a fixed rate to buy an asset with cash flows that rise with inflation. If you want to do this in a brokerage ...
by market timer
Sat Jul 21, 2018 9:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Hedging Tech Salaries titled heavily in stocks
Replies: 9
Views: 1044

Re: Hedging Tech Salaries titled heavily in stocks

Why only hedge the downside? If that's the goal, you could buy puts on QQQ. Personally, I'd try to immunize against any movement (upside or downside), and sell futures on Nasdaq 100. It's not a perfect hedge to FAANG, but should substantially reduce the variance of returns.
by market timer
Fri Jul 20, 2018 10:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Giving up career growth for more time outside of work
Replies: 38
Views: 2878

Re: Giving up career growth for more time outside of work

I was a manager for many years, and was able to structure my job to keep a good work life balance. But there is a cost. One, after a while it becomes visible that your aren't burning the candle at both ends, and two by restructuring your job (delegating, training, streamline processes), all things ...
by market timer
Fri Jul 20, 2018 1:00 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Giving up career growth for more time outside of work
Replies: 38
Views: 2878

Re: Giving up career growth for more time outside of work

Agree with this. If you want to make real money, this is where it is. Being an employee only takes you so far, especially when you try to play the megacorp ladder game. I left my job and became a consultant 8 years ago and it's been life changing. Income quadrupled over night, and have never worked...
by market timer
Tue Jul 17, 2018 8:34 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buy a vacation home while renting
Replies: 61
Views: 4073

Re: Buy a vacation home while renting

One weekend per month doesn't seem worth the hassle of ownership. I'd just stay at a resort. It almost sounds like you're looking for a way to recategorize part of your travel budget as "investment," as an accounting trick to keep your perceived expenses low. I'd just bump up the travel budget by an...
by market timer
Tue Jul 17, 2018 6:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 206
Views: 15766

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

The best thing I've read on the subject is a book with a very misleading title: Fortune's Formula: The Untold Story of the Scientific Betting System That Beat the Casinos and Wall Street , by William Poundstone. Another description is in Wikipedia, Kelly criterion Agreed, this is a great book. An a...
by market timer
Mon Jul 16, 2018 8:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 206
Views: 15766

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

The reason I'm also asking is I'm trying to not make a big financial mistake because there is a product at the moment in my country that is basically a mortgage for index funds. 10 to 15 year loans with LVR 70% and regular P & I repayments to gradually pay it off. No margin calls. The thing stoppin...
by market timer
Mon Jul 16, 2018 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in oil?
Replies: 13
Views: 1028

Re: Investing in oil?

Unless there is a big change in how power is generated, I expect oil to represent about 15% of my consumption basket (directly or indirectly), and an even larger share of the price volatility of this basket. Therefore, I invest in long term oil futures to preserve purchasing power. This is not a spe...
by market timer
Sun Jul 15, 2018 10:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 206
Views: 15766

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

This question tends to get asked when P/E ratios are stretched and risk premiums are low. That alone should give you some pause. As others have noted, margin calls are the biggest difference. But those can be avoided if you maintain relatively low leverage and have cash inflows. For new investors wi...
by market timer
Sun Jul 15, 2018 8:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Abundance came late, now I'm overwhelmed playing catch up
Replies: 26
Views: 4575

Re: Abundance came late, now I'm overwhelmed playing catch up

With no desire to leave an inheritance and low risk tolerance, you sound like the perfect candidate for an annuity.
by market timer
Thu Jul 12, 2018 8:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Compensation
Replies: 21
Views: 3780

Re: Compensation

Thanks for the info and website links. I work on the hardware side in semiconductor industry. My total comp is about 200-210k. About 25k is bonus, 15k is cash incentives that vest yearly, and some 401k matching. About 6 years experience with PhD, Applied Physics from top school. Interesting enough,...
by market timer
Sun Jul 08, 2018 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Girls and investing
Replies: 115
Views: 6161

Re: Girls and investing

I have a son and a daughter. They are very different. I remember buying a soccer ball for my son when he was 2 and looking forward to playing kick in the backyard. To this day, he never wants to play soccer with me. However, I just spent the afternoon kicking that soccer ball around with my daughter...
by market timer
Sun Jul 08, 2018 6:02 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Ireland trip
Replies: 20
Views: 1681

Re: Ireland trip

I recently did two weeks in Ireland with my family. Rented a car a did a loop around the island following the Rick Steves recommendations on YouTube. For us, the highlight was probably the four days we spent in Kenmare at Sheen Falls Lodge. Very scenic location with remarkable food in town.
by market timer
Sun Jul 08, 2018 5:26 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What time do you get up in the morning?
Replies: 160
Views: 12766

Re: What time do you get up in the morning?

M-F: Sleep 11:30-7:30
Weekends: Sleep 11-8:30

Long, restful sleep facilitated by 0.5mg of klonopin before bedtime, a mid-day workout, 20 minutes in the sauna, and a nanny who wakes up with the kids.
by market timer
Wed Jul 04, 2018 7:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tech tilt as hedge against rising cost of living in Bay Area
Replies: 37
Views: 3081

Re: Tech tilt as hedge against rising cost of living in Bay Area

Yes, inflation in the Bay Area seems to be higher than the US overall when tech is doing well, roughly up to 3%/year more in the boom times:

Image
by market timer
Tue Jun 26, 2018 7:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Lost out on promotion
Replies: 104
Views: 11056

Re: Lost out on promotion

Promotions happens for all sorts of reasons, but usually not merit. Suggest you read The Gervais Principle by Vankatash Rao on the organization of work. He groups workers in three categories: sociopaths, clueless, and losers. I'm a loser or sociopath, depending on who you ask (my boss or reports).