Search found 5878 matches

by market timer
Tue Aug 14, 2018 8:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is it possible to change one's career in their 40s?
Replies: 88
Views: 7655

Re: Is it possible to change one's career in their 40s?

bloom2708 wrote:
Mon Jul 23, 2018 4:21 pm
OP, are there opportunities to shift your career at your current company?
In my experience, this is the most efficient way to change careers. The is especially true mid-career, when any job you'll apply for will will require relevant prior work experience.
by market timer
Sun Aug 12, 2018 11:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 3653
Views: 1038047

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

The Vietnam War 18-hour PBS documentary by Ken Burns. Apparently I slept through most of US history class, because much of this material is new to me. Always interesting to learn more about a topic that is so familiar.
by market timer
Fri Aug 10, 2018 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Invest in Tesla?
Replies: 334
Views: 21155

Re: Invest in Tesla?

If one is using options, and one is bearish on Tesla, isn't the right thing to do to buy Puts? Preferrably Out of The Money Puts? Surely that’s the case if one is convinced that Tesla is going to $0 shortly. Market Timer says he is writing in of the money calls. I am not sure why? In principle that...
by market timer
Thu Aug 09, 2018 8:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Invest in Tesla?
Replies: 334
Views: 21155

Re: Invest in Tesla?

DanMahowny wrote:
Thu Aug 09, 2018 7:12 am
Musk's tweet was a clear sign of desperation. There has NEVER been a better time to short the stock.
Agreed. I shorted yesterday by selling in-the-money call options. Musk seems more like a social media manager than a CEO.
by market timer
Sun Aug 05, 2018 8:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Will you pay for your kids' college/graduate education?
Replies: 366
Views: 14136

Re: Will you pay for your kids' college/graduate education?

We still have some time to decide. Most likely, I'll cover costs up to State U. levels. If either of my kids gets into a school in the top 6 or so, I'd be inclined to cover that. Grad school would be on them, unless we're very rich.
by market timer
Sun Aug 05, 2018 1:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg commodities index still in contango
Replies: 82
Views: 6915

Re: Bloomberg commodities index still in contango

What is the idea behind waiting for backwardation? I haven't seen where this has any predictive power for returns. Some commodities that are cheap to store and have low consumption, such as gold, rarely trade in backwardation. Contango in the gold market arises from the cost of capital. The forward ...
by market timer
Fri Aug 03, 2018 10:10 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Question to retirees - money or work/life balance?
Replies: 46
Views: 5216

Re: Question to retirees - money or work/life balance?

For people climbing the corporate ladder, I'm not sure money is the primary motivator. I suspect power, influence, new challenges, and winning "the game" are more powerful motivators.
by market timer
Mon Jul 30, 2018 8:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Realities of Early Retirement Model (FIRE)?
Replies: 96
Views: 9446

Re: Realities of Early Retirement Model (FIRE)?

bhsince87 wrote:
Mon Jul 30, 2018 3:11 pm
For my wife and I, age 53 and 51, current unsubsidized cost is $28k per year, with an additional $4k out of pocket max.
Regardless of who pays, such high health care expenses are not sustainable.
by market timer
Mon Jul 30, 2018 8:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Realities of Early Retirement Model (FIRE)?
Replies: 96
Views: 9446

Re: Realities of Early Retirement Model (FIRE)?

I think it's wise to keep in mind that living on $30K while generating lots of passive income isn't the same as living on $30K when draining one's portfolio, and I wonder what happens when the next market crash happens. Yes, will be interesting to watch. The US currently has an unprecedented level ...
by market timer
Mon Jul 30, 2018 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where is the money going?
Replies: 21
Views: 2871

Re: Where is the money going?

Essentially, everything has been going up for the past nine years. Why would it surprise you that asset prices can also move down together?
by market timer
Wed Jul 25, 2018 8:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 206
Views: 15013

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

I'll have to read the Ayres and Nalebuff article. My concern would be what happens if the leveraged investment runs into trouble right away, saddling the already indebted young persons with even more debt. I'll be curious to see how they have addressed this scenario. It puts a strain on family rela...
by market timer
Wed Jul 25, 2018 8:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6752
Views: 1467383

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Facebook is down over 20% after hours on poor revenue guidance. Nasdaq down 1.5%. Maybe we just passed the peak?
by market timer
Tue Jul 24, 2018 8:16 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What investment/finance book to read next
Replies: 21
Views: 1208

Re: What investment/finance book to read next

Capital Ideas, by Peter Bernstein
by market timer
Sat Jul 21, 2018 10:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value Stocks and Margin Loans as Inflation Hedges
Replies: 12
Views: 961

Re: Value Stocks and Margin Loans as Inflation Hedges

As others have noted, a margin loan is not a great way to benefit from inflation, because short term rates will tend to rise with the inflation rate. Ideally, you want to borrow long term at a fixed rate to buy an asset with cash flows that rise with inflation. If you want to do this in a brokerage ...
by market timer
Sat Jul 21, 2018 9:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Hedging Tech Salaries titled heavily in stocks
Replies: 9
Views: 992

Re: Hedging Tech Salaries titled heavily in stocks

Why only hedge the downside? If that's the goal, you could buy puts on QQQ. Personally, I'd try to immunize against any movement (upside or downside), and sell futures on Nasdaq 100. It's not a perfect hedge to FAANG, but should substantially reduce the variance of returns.
by market timer
Fri Jul 20, 2018 10:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Giving up career growth for more time outside of work
Replies: 38
Views: 2785

Re: Giving up career growth for more time outside of work

I was a manager for many years, and was able to structure my job to keep a good work life balance. But there is a cost. One, after a while it becomes visible that your aren't burning the candle at both ends, and two by restructuring your job (delegating, training, streamline processes), all things ...
by market timer
Fri Jul 20, 2018 1:00 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Giving up career growth for more time outside of work
Replies: 38
Views: 2785

Re: Giving up career growth for more time outside of work

Agree with this. If you want to make real money, this is where it is. Being an employee only takes you so far, especially when you try to play the megacorp ladder game. I left my job and became a consultant 8 years ago and it's been life changing. Income quadrupled over night, and have never worked...
by market timer
Tue Jul 17, 2018 8:34 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buy a vacation home while renting
Replies: 61
Views: 3813

Re: Buy a vacation home while renting

One weekend per month doesn't seem worth the hassle of ownership. I'd just stay at a resort. It almost sounds like you're looking for a way to recategorize part of your travel budget as "investment," as an accounting trick to keep your perceived expenses low. I'd just bump up the travel budget by an...
by market timer
Tue Jul 17, 2018 6:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 206
Views: 15013

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

The best thing I've read on the subject is a book with a very misleading title: Fortune's Formula: The Untold Story of the Scientific Betting System That Beat the Casinos and Wall Street , by William Poundstone. Another description is in Wikipedia, Kelly criterion Agreed, this is a great book. An a...
by market timer
Mon Jul 16, 2018 8:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 206
Views: 15013

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

The reason I'm also asking is I'm trying to not make a big financial mistake because there is a product at the moment in my country that is basically a mortgage for index funds. 10 to 15 year loans with LVR 70% and regular P & I repayments to gradually pay it off. No margin calls. The thing stoppin...
by market timer
Mon Jul 16, 2018 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in oil?
Replies: 13
Views: 959

Re: Investing in oil?

Unless there is a big change in how power is generated, I expect oil to represent about 15% of my consumption basket (directly or indirectly), and an even larger share of the price volatility of this basket. Therefore, I invest in long term oil futures to preserve purchasing power. This is not a spe...
by market timer
Sun Jul 15, 2018 10:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 206
Views: 15013

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

This question tends to get asked when P/E ratios are stretched and risk premiums are low. That alone should give you some pause. As others have noted, margin calls are the biggest difference. But those can be avoided if you maintain relatively low leverage and have cash inflows. For new investors wi...
by market timer
Sun Jul 15, 2018 8:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Abundance came late, now I'm overwhelmed playing catch up
Replies: 26
Views: 4469

Re: Abundance came late, now I'm overwhelmed playing catch up

With no desire to leave an inheritance and low risk tolerance, you sound like the perfect candidate for an annuity.
by market timer
Thu Jul 12, 2018 8:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Compensation
Replies: 21
Views: 3672

Re: Compensation

Thanks for the info and website links. I work on the hardware side in semiconductor industry. My total comp is about 200-210k. About 25k is bonus, 15k is cash incentives that vest yearly, and some 401k matching. About 6 years experience with PhD, Applied Physics from top school. Interesting enough,...
by market timer
Sun Jul 08, 2018 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Girls and investing
Replies: 115
Views: 5783

Re: Girls and investing

I have a son and a daughter. They are very different. I remember buying a soccer ball for my son when he was 2 and looking forward to playing kick in the backyard. To this day, he never wants to play soccer with me. However, I just spent the afternoon kicking that soccer ball around with my daughter...
by market timer
Sun Jul 08, 2018 6:02 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Ireland trip
Replies: 20
Views: 1566

Re: Ireland trip

I recently did two weeks in Ireland with my family. Rented a car a did a loop around the island following the Rick Steves recommendations on YouTube. For us, the highlight was probably the four days we spent in Kenmare at Sheen Falls Lodge. Very scenic location with remarkable food in town.
by market timer
Sun Jul 08, 2018 5:26 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What time do you get up in the morning?
Replies: 138
Views: 9395

Re: What time do you get up in the morning?

M-F: Sleep 11:30-7:30
Weekends: Sleep 11-8:30

Long, restful sleep facilitated by 0.5mg of klonopin before bedtime, a mid-day workout, 20 minutes in the sauna, and a nanny who wakes up with the kids.
by market timer
Wed Jul 04, 2018 7:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tech tilt as hedge against rising cost of living in Bay Area
Replies: 37
Views: 2966

Re: Tech tilt as hedge against rising cost of living in Bay Area

Yes, inflation in the Bay Area seems to be higher than the US overall when tech is doing well, roughly up to 3%/year more in the boom times:

Image
by market timer
Tue Jun 26, 2018 7:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Lost out on promotion
Replies: 104
Views: 10596

Re: Lost out on promotion

Promotions happens for all sorts of reasons, but usually not merit. Suggest you read The Gervais Principle by Vankatash Rao on the organization of work. He groups workers in three categories: sociopaths, clueless, and losers. I'm a loser or sociopath, depending on who you ask (my boss or reports).
by market timer
Sun Jun 24, 2018 10:46 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 3166
Views: 966378

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

jebmke wrote:
Sun Jun 24, 2018 10:34 am
This is on my list. Media seems to focus a lot on Holmes and not much on the Board of Directors. Are the board members getting any attention in the book?
Yes, the book is not just about Holmes. It covers everyone who failed to do their due diligence.
by market timer
Sun Jun 24, 2018 9:28 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 3166
Views: 966378

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Bad Blood , by John Carreyrou The rise and fall of Theranos, written by the WSJ investigative journalist who helped expose the scam. Half-way through this and it is engrossing with some really colorful characters. I now see Adam McKay, who directed the Big Short, will direct a film based on this bo...
by market timer
Sun Jun 24, 2018 2:50 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 3166
Views: 966378

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Bad Blood, by John Carreyrou

The rise and fall of Theranos, written by the WSJ investigative journalist who helped expose the scam.
by market timer
Sat Jun 23, 2018 10:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: When did you start flying business class?
Replies: 155
Views: 12090

Re: When did you start flying business class?

Started when I had enough frequent flyer miles. Nowadays, I usually end up paying cash for business for long haul flights. When traveling with family, it does get expensive. Also, kids make the experience a bit less luxurious than when I fly solo (e.g., I might not even get to sleep). If I'm flying ...
by market timer
Sat Jun 23, 2018 10:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can you retire on $2M?
Replies: 173
Views: 21066

Re: Can you retire on $2M?

Sure, I could retire on $2mn at 40. I'm pretty close to those numbers now. However, I'd rather work a job I enjoy than retire at this age. The nice thing about being FI is you can be picky about the type of work you do, and you don't have to worry as much about losing your job.
by market timer
Tue Jun 19, 2018 6:53 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone FIRE with young kids - what did you do?
Replies: 8
Views: 1853

Re: Anyone FIRE with young kids - what did you do?

Our kids were both in middle-school when my wife and I retired. I told her we should make sure not to waste this opportunity. We could literally sell the house, buy a sailboat and homeschool the kids off the coast of China if we wanted. Not that we had to do anything that extreme, but we should at ...
by market timer
Sun Jun 10, 2018 8:11 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Need advice on 1st international vacation
Replies: 106
Views: 6468

Re: Need advice on 1st international vacation

I vote for Paris + day trips. With only 7-10 days, I'd rule out the Asia-Pacific region. It's not worth the flight time and jet lag. That leaves Europe or Central / South America. If you want nature, Costa Rica is a good choice. If you want history and museums, pick London or Paris. I'm partial to P...
by market timer
Sat Jun 02, 2018 8:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thinking about RSUs and asset allocation
Replies: 12
Views: 987

Re: Thinking about RSUs and asset allocation

How well correlated are your RSUs with QQQ? One option is to hedge some of your holdings by selling QQQ. Personally, I think it can make sense to hedge RSUs depending on how confident you are that you'll vest.
by market timer
Thu May 31, 2018 11:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Have $3m at 33, "approach to career" advice needed
Replies: 99
Views: 12890

Re: Have $3m at 33, "approach to career" advice needed

I'm going to guess affiliate marketing. I'm in a similar boat (if affiliate marketing is your niche). I will probably pivot to real estate once the well is totally dry. I've been reading this forum for more than a year and decided to register after reading your post. I'm in the same exact situation...
by market timer
Wed May 30, 2018 8:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Have $3m at 33, "approach to career" advice needed
Replies: 99
Views: 12890

Re: Have $3m at 33, "approach to career" advice needed

I can't imagine anyone having that level of success at your age ever enjoying going to work for someone else making +/- 100k. There's a lot of soul crushing nonsense that goes on in the corporate world at that level. +1 On the other hand, if you have $3mn in the bank, it's easy to let the nonsense ...
by market timer
Tue May 29, 2018 8:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best retirement places for shy senior singles
Replies: 32
Views: 3996

Re: Best retirement places for shy senior singles

Ideally, near one's grandchildren.
by market timer
Tue May 29, 2018 7:34 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 3 days in Boston with an 8 year old
Replies: 31
Views: 2239

Re: 3 days in Boston with an 8 year old

I visited Boston at a similar age and still remember:
-Red Sox game
-Whale watch
-Homeless person who kept interrupting our Freedom Trail tour to tell us the "real" story
by market timer
Tue May 29, 2018 10:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Cheap options for retirement?
Replies: 17
Views: 2544

Re: Cheap options for retirement?

Before going overseas, I'd run a scenario where you:
-get rid of your car(s)
-rent in a cheap college town
-qualify for health insurance subsidies

Should be able to get basic expenses for a couple down to $20K/year in that scenario.
by market timer
Tue May 29, 2018 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: German Bonds: a virtually riskless bet for an Italian investor, with no downside and a big upside possible?
Replies: 92
Views: 5670

Re: German Bonds: a virtually riskless bet for an Italian investor, with no downside and a big upside possible?

CnC wrote:
Tue May 29, 2018 10:16 am
Could you explain "cost of currency hedging" I'm American so I haven't ran into this issue before.
The term is interest rate parity: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interest_rate_parity
by market timer
Tue May 29, 2018 9:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: German Bonds: a virtually riskless bet for an Italian investor, with no downside and a big upside possible?
Replies: 92
Views: 5670

Re: German Bonds: a virtually riskless bet for an Italian investor, with no downside and a big upside possible?

CnC wrote:
Tue May 29, 2018 8:56 am
Are us treasury bonds not available in Europe?

I never understood why people would buy 0 or negative yield bonds when there were equally safe bonds for sale in the us with 10x the yield.
Because shopkeepers in Europe don't price things in dollars.
by market timer
Mon May 21, 2018 8:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Almost half of US families can't afford basics like rent and food
Replies: 19
Views: 1805

Re: Almost half of US families can't afford basics like rent and food

From the article: For instance, in Seattle's King County, the annual household survival budget for a family of four (including one infant and one preschooler) in 2016 was nearly $85,000. When I look at this in comparison to global poverty levels, I have to wonder what is out of balance. Is the purc...
by market timer
Mon May 21, 2018 7:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Almost half of US families can't afford basics like rent and food
Replies: 19
Views: 1805

Re: Almost half of US families can't afford basics like rent and food

From the article: For instance, in Seattle's King County, the annual household survival budget for a family of four (including one infant and one preschooler) in 2016 was nearly $85,000. When I look at this in comparison to global poverty levels, I have to wonder what is out of balance. Is the purch...
by market timer
Sun May 20, 2018 12:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Lucrative careers?
Replies: 319
Views: 26547

Re: Lucrative careers?

How much longer do people think the high pay in software engineering will continue? I guess the best indicator is the price of QQQ. Any good data on total compensation over the past 15-20 years? Curious exactly how big is the bubble.
by market timer
Sat May 12, 2018 3:16 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Lucrative careers?
Replies: 319
Views: 26547

Re: Lucrative careers?

Of the careers you mentioned, I think medicine / nursing has good potential. Perhaps there are areas in the field that you'd find more interesting.

Many people have suggested computer science. I'd recommend this if you scored around 750 or higher on the math part of the SAT.
by market timer
Sun May 06, 2018 8:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What career for smartest kid in the class?
Replies: 132
Views: 8966

Re: What career for smartest kid in the class?

Generally, research is the career choice for the smartest people, if we are talking IQ (not EQ or other forms of intelligence). Some of the most lucrative careers mentioned--CEOs, investment bankers, and law firm partners--require a fairly high IQ but also high EQ. I think very high IQ people can ha...