Search found 5822 matches

by market timer
Thu Apr 12, 2018 2:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ivy school education. Is it worth it?
Replies: 238
Views: 12397

Re: Ivy school education. Is it worth it?

We'd probably all be better off -- likely almost as materially wealthy and a whole lot happier -- if more people at all levels and of all backgrounds kicked out for Volleyball at 2pm on some days. Seven years of ivy league training and nine years of work experience and I've had zero opportunities t...
by market timer
Thu Apr 12, 2018 1:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 3497
Views: 986160

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

Brad's Status

I, Tonya

Three Billboards

Shape of Water


All quite good.
by market timer
Sun Apr 08, 2018 8:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ivy school education. Is it worth it?
Replies: 238
Views: 12397

Re: Ivy school education. Is it worth it?

TomatoTomahto wrote:
Sun Apr 08, 2018 6:04 pm
alpenglow wrote:
Sun Apr 08, 2018 5:52 pm
If I may ask, what does you son do for a living?
To quote his girlfriend: “he goes to work in a T-shirt and does math all day.”
I have the same gig. It's a great time to be a math-in-t-shirt guy.
by market timer
Sat Apr 07, 2018 11:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ivy school education. Is it worth it?
Replies: 238
Views: 12397

Re: Ivy school education. Is it worth it?

So I am wondering where the payoff is for all this hard work. It seems to me the result is still a lot more hard work. In your example of the Stanford grad working in tech, the payoff comes fairly quickly. Someone who is, let's say, age 30, who started working in one of the big tech companies out o...
by market timer
Sat Apr 07, 2018 11:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ivy school education. Is it worth it?
Replies: 238
Views: 12397

Re: Ivy school education. Is it worth it?

Early career earnings is not the metric I'd use to evaluate a college. For better or worse, there is a class system in the US based largely on education. Many desirable jobs are off-limits for people who did not attend elite colleges or grad schools. Many desirable spouses are effectively off-limits...
by market timer
Fri Apr 06, 2018 12:29 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any hardworkers here who half-a** at work?
Replies: 27
Views: 3686

Re: Any hardworkers here who half-a** at work?

When you say management lacks the drive or care, consider how important is your project. Managers have many projects competing for their time, and it is possible that your project is not viewed as likely to make a large difference relative to other projects. Simply doing your job well and hoping for...
by market timer
Thu Apr 05, 2018 9:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle on stock turbulence: ‘never seen a market this volatile to this extent in my career’
Replies: 88
Views: 12284

Re: Bogle on stock turbulence: ‘never seen a market this volatile to this extent in my career’

Perhaps what he means is the absolute dollar value of fluctuations. High valuations + relatively high volatility = very high fluctuations in value.
by market timer
Tue Apr 03, 2018 8:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: This-millennial-couple-is-saving-150000-a-year-and-plans-to-retire-by-2029-heres-how-they-
Replies: 136
Views: 10363

Re: This-millennial-couple-is-saving-150000-a-year-and-plans-to-retire-by-2029-heres-how-they-

Many will read this article and think the couple is making all these sacrifices because of their goal to FIRE. If their behavior strikes you as bizarre, I think what you are seeing is largely explained by different cultural values--combination of traditional Chinese (living with parents), urban (no ...
by market timer
Mon Apr 02, 2018 10:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Career Move: Please convince me why I should not work in tech
Replies: 59
Views: 4640

Re: Career Move: Please convince me why I should not work in tech

Have you applied to a tier 1 tech company and received an offer?
by market timer
Fri Mar 30, 2018 9:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When did you know your kids would go to college?
Replies: 91
Views: 4042

Re: When did you know your kids would go to college?

I'd have put the odds at close to 100% for my kids at birth. My four-year-old is explaining the digestive system to my one-year-old as I type this. Only real uncertainty in my mind is whether it will be an elite school or a flagship public.
by market timer
Thu Mar 22, 2018 8:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6393
Views: 1371612

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

thangngo wrote:
Thu Mar 22, 2018 4:28 pm
I know it.

You know it.

Everyone knows it.

Even Jon Snow knows it.

That nobody knows nothing.

:sharebeer
No, winter is coming.
by market timer
Tue Mar 20, 2018 10:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I Retire at 38?
Replies: 118
Views: 12556

Re: Can I Retire at 38?

Financially, you are set. Don't settle for a job you don't like.
by market timer
Thu Mar 15, 2018 9:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Those with high savings rate: why?
Replies: 187
Views: 18702

Re: Those with high savings rate: why?

All of the above.

Plus, I might want to start my own business. Having money will let me hire people.
by market timer
Tue Mar 13, 2018 8:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Skin In The Game [new N. Taleb book]
Replies: 23
Views: 3803

Re: Skin In The Game

I was a fan of Taleb's previous books, but felt this one was a disappointment. Perhaps it is because I don't find ethics a particularly interesting subject.
by market timer
Thu Mar 08, 2018 10:30 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is this a housing bubble?
Replies: 71
Views: 8304

Re: Is this a housing bubble?

Why would interest rates cause a decline in these markets? Buyers are making all cash offers. I would think their ability to afford the house has no relationship on interest rates. Interest rates are the opportunity cost of capital. Higher rates means higher cap rates and rental yields. There's als...
by market timer
Mon Mar 05, 2018 8:36 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is this a housing bubble?
Replies: 71
Views: 8304

Re: Is this a housing bubble?

Interestingly the chart argues that it will - still not back to its pre Crash high. Yet the tech industry is much stronger. I have underlined the words "Bay Area" in the above. Your hypothesis is of a fall in demand leading to lower prices. Suppose we changed that to "New York"? What would be your ...
by market timer
Mon Mar 05, 2018 8:46 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is this a housing bubble?
Replies: 71
Views: 8304

Re: Is this a housing bubble?

I'm seeing a lot of stories lately about people moving from the Bay Area due to high house prices. If I had to bet, I'd guess house prices in the Bay Area won't keep up with inflation over the next 10 years. Here is the inflation-adjusted Case-Shiller house price index for San Francisco: https://fre...
by market timer
Sat Mar 03, 2018 10:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best way to short the equity market
Replies: 93
Views: 5064

Re: Best way to short the equity market

Check with your brokerage on the Roth. I have a Roth and am able to short futures in this account.
by market timer
Sat Mar 03, 2018 9:29 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What was your % pay raise?
Replies: 179
Views: 18929

Re: What was your % pay raise?

3% raise. Currently at a weird point in my career where my pay is good, better than I could get elsewhere, but I have no upside potential, and my pay doesn't really depend on my performance.
by market timer
Sat Mar 03, 2018 8:26 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 2972
Views: 916428

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Have nearly finished Skin in the Game , by Nassim Taleb. I am a fan of his earlier works, but this one is a letdown. Maybe I'm too familiar with the material already, from earlier studies on contract theory and law & economics. The idea that there are agency problems is not that profound, and the ra...
by market timer
Tue Feb 20, 2018 10:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: job application that ask for salary requirement
Replies: 15
Views: 1507

Re: job application that ask for salary requirement

I answer honestly to make sure we're not wasting each other's time. I don't benchmark my salary to anyone except what I'm currently making, since I don't think there is a benchmark for my skill set.
by market timer
Sun Feb 18, 2018 8:43 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you wear a wedding band? [at a job interview]
Replies: 157
Views: 9844

Re: Do you wear a wedding band? [at a job interview]

Looks like a wedding band is considered a positive signal for men during job interviews but potentially negative for women: https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/0a30/9aeeda97d0ee6e56f78d439dbf0f893c9d53.pdf From the article: For men, on the other hand, singleness may have multiple disadvantages in the w...
by market timer
Sat Feb 17, 2018 8:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to get child's skin in the game for college?
Replies: 135
Views: 7054

Re: How to get child's skin in the game for college?

Around 20 years ago, my parents told me that they'd give me $8000/year for four years of college. The rest was up to me. I'll probably do something similar for my kids. Adjusted for inflation, no? Otherwise $32k might buy them 1/2 a semesters payment if your lucky. Yeah, $8K would be a bit low in 1...
by market timer
Fri Feb 16, 2018 9:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to get child's skin in the game for college?
Replies: 135
Views: 7054

Re: How to get child's skin in the game for college?

Around 20 years ago, my parents told me that they'd give me $8000/year for four years of college. The rest was up to me. I'll probably do something similar for my kids.
by market timer
Thu Feb 15, 2018 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Inflation Works (NYT)
Replies: 21
Views: 2357

Re: How Inflation Works (NYT)

I'd also add that economists are divided on how the Fed should respond to an uptick in inflation. Some would argue for higher interest rates, which tends to deflate asset prices and reduce aggregate demand. Others argue that higher interest rates will actually cause higher inflation. In other words...
by market timer
Thu Feb 15, 2018 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Inflation Works (NYT)
Replies: 21
Views: 2357

Re: How Inflation Works (NYT)

While this is a decent intro on short run inflation dynamics, the article ignores the key drivers of the long run inflation rate and expectations: monetary and fiscal policy. When you run large deficits, you should expect inflation. People are concerned about inflation now for several reasons: (1) u...
by market timer
Tue Feb 13, 2018 8:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Living abroad. Retirement savings options?
Replies: 45
Views: 5311

Re: Living abroad. Retirement savings options?

Sorry for resurrecting the thread but I have a question. I must have taxable income that is not foreign earned to contribute to a Roth IRA. What if I start a small independent business in the US selling art, or honey, or services etc., and within a tax year I could prove that that company took in $...
by market timer
Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Expat tax question: How to be eligible for MFJ with non-resident spouse?
Replies: 14
Views: 989

Re: Expat tax question: How to be eligible for MFJ with non-resident spouse?

Thanks, all. Looks like the rules are fairly clear on determining residency status: https://www.irs.gov/individuals/international-taxpayers/determining-alien-tax-status I don't see any options other than green card or physical presence. I'm going to see about filing an amended return to switch from ...
by market timer
Mon Feb 12, 2018 8:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Expat tax question: How to be eligible for MFJ with non-resident spouse?
Replies: 14
Views: 989

Re: Expat tax question: How to be eligible for MFJ with non-resident spouse?

Firstly, you are not eligible to file as Head of Household if you are married. You can file as HoH with a non-resident alien spouse. I paid $7400 to a CPA over a couple years to learn all about this. Getting tax advice is not cheap. If your wife is a non-resident alien and you live abroad, you can ...
by market timer
Mon Feb 12, 2018 7:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Expat tax question: How to be eligible for MFJ with non-resident spouse?
Replies: 14
Views: 989

Expat tax question: How to be eligible for MFJ with non-resident spouse?

Based on the US tax reforms, I'd like to be able to file MFJ with my wife, who is a non-resident alien. Currently, I file as HoH. However, we revoked the option that she would be treated as a resident for tax purposes last year. This was largely motivated by paperwork reduction, but now this decisio...
by market timer
Sat Feb 10, 2018 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Day trading for a living/career?
Replies: 95
Views: 6979

Re: Day trading for a living/career?

Yes, I know lots of people who trade for a living. Most of them work on investment banking trading desks or in hedge funds. I also know some people who day trade their personal accounts for a living, but they're better called retired hobbyists, and are not relying on trading profits to pay for their...
by market timer
Fri Feb 09, 2018 11:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good John Cochrane "Grumpy Economist" post - "Stock Gyrations"
Replies: 3
Views: 637

Re: Good John Cochrane "Grumpy Economist" post - "Stock Gyrations"

Thanks for the recommendation. This is in line with my read on the market action as well. I posted some thoughts in a different thread, and reposted here: Cochrane focuses on the real interest rate as leading the selloff; however, I'd also note that the nominal rate is important as well. Economists ...
by market timer
Fri Feb 09, 2018 10:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inverse VIX Cause of Further Selling?
Replies: 15
Views: 1593

Re: Inverse VIX Cause of Further Selling?

My guess is this selloff is primarily due to higher discount rates, as John Cochrane explains here: https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2018/02/stock-gyrations.html Cochrane focuses on the real interest rate as leading the selloff; however, I'd also note that the nominal rate is important as well. Ec...
by market timer
Fri Feb 09, 2018 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Still waiting to invest?
Replies: 47
Views: 5927

Re: Still waiting to invest?

minimalistmarc wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 10:38 am
Then why are you interested in stocks at all?
Studied financial markets in grad school and had a career on Wall Street. Once you spend all day staring at a Bloomberg screen for years, it is hard to kick the habit of checking the market regularly.
by market timer
Fri Feb 09, 2018 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Still waiting to invest?
Replies: 47
Views: 5927

Re: Still waiting to invest?

With 0% equities, I have plenty of dry powder, but have not yet used any of it. Stocks are simply not attractively priced, and this could get much uglier. I expect rising rates and Fed balance sheet normalization will be a headwind for the medium term, and deficits/inflation to be a headwind in the...
by market timer
Thu Feb 08, 2018 8:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Still waiting to invest?
Replies: 47
Views: 5927

Re: Still waiting to invest?

With 0% equities, I have plenty of dry powder, but have not yet used any of it. Stocks are simply not attractively priced, and this could get much uglier. I expect rising rates and Fed balance sheet normalization will be a headwind for the medium term, and deficits/inflation to be a headwind in the ...
by market timer
Wed Feb 07, 2018 8:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Leaving HCOL state for financial reasons
Replies: 48
Views: 5006

Re: Leaving HCOL state for financial reasons

Working in a HCOL city like SF or NYC is great for a first job, but it isn't compatible with the life I'd want with a family. At least, not at a price point that I could afford. An ideal life for me, age 35-55 let's say, is working 30-40 hours per week, having six weeks vacation, walking to work, at...
by market timer
Sat Feb 03, 2018 6:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6393
Views: 1371612

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Here's a question for all those who have been lamenting about not wanting to invest in stocks "at all time highs." Now that the market has retreated a little, will you now feel better about buying into it? No, I'm still on the sidelines. If this becomes a 15-20% correction, and VIX goes to 30+, I'l...
by market timer
Wed Jan 31, 2018 7:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why do many bogleheads feel they can time the housing market but can't time the stock market?
Replies: 63
Views: 4883

Re: Why do many bogleheads feel they can time the housing market but can't time the stock market?

The housing market is less efficient than the stock market: high transaction costs, inability for people to short, various distortions that favor owners vs. renters, etc. Consequently, inefficiencies are not easily "arbitraged away" like they are in the stock market. This leads to factors such as mo...
by market timer
Tue Jan 30, 2018 12:28 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: what do/did you do with your evenings with a Toddler in winters ?
Replies: 63
Views: 4126

Re: what do/did you do with your evenings with a Toddler in winters ?

When we are indoors, which is most of the weekend, typically my wife and I are on separate laptops, our son has his iPad, and our daughter is looking over his shoulder trying to tap the screen. It's really amazing how kids are attracted to the iPad, like moths to a flame. We try to limit the screen ...
by market timer
Sun Jan 28, 2018 8:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much have kids added to your personal finance/expenses?
Replies: 111
Views: 8533

Re: How much have kids added to your personal finance/expenses?

For us, per kid, per year: Private school tuition or nanny: $12K After school care: $4K Food: $4K Health care: $1K Other stuff: $2K Additional rent: $5K Flight tickets: $4K Total: $32K This doesn't even include college savings, which I don't keep separate from my retirement funds. I estimate college...
by market timer
Sun Jan 28, 2018 7:28 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 2972
Views: 916428

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

12 Rules for Life: An Antidote to Chaos , by Jordan Peterson Seeing a lot of articles written about this guy and this book, so have to give it a try. Only into chapter 2, but I like where it is going with the combination of biological basis of behavior, evolutionary psychology, game theory, and pra...
by market timer
Sat Jan 27, 2018 11:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it likely we return to historical real bond yields?
Replies: 17
Views: 1900

Re: Is it likely we return to historical real bond yields?

Until we have another major destruction of capital of the type associated with a major war or revolution (which would sweep aside more than just the current social-capitalist regime in the USA or any one country) that's likely to be the trend. I'm not sure it will take war or revolution to get back...
by market timer
Sat Jan 27, 2018 8:10 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Cash heavy portfolio
Replies: 28
Views: 2672

Re: Cash heavy portfolio

Sounds like you've won the game and the only thing that can derail your plans is losing what you have. My situation is similar, and I'm also cash heavy. The past year was annoying from the perspective of missing out on the rally, but I try to keep in mind that this is not a game where I'm trying to ...
by market timer
Mon Jan 22, 2018 8:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Cost of living comparison (HCOL vs LCOL)
Replies: 85
Views: 6117

Re: Cost of living comparison (HCOL vs LCOL)

You should only apply cost of living calculators to your expenses, not your income. For shelter costs, I would use rents to have an apples-to-apples comparison, rather than estimating owner-occupied expenses, which require you to make some assumptions about appreciation and opportunity costs of inve...
by market timer
Sat Jan 20, 2018 10:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What's your annual cost of living (expenses)?
Replies: 40
Views: 3424

Re: What's your annual cost of living (expenses)?

Married
Two young kids
MCOL

Spend somewhere around $100K/year.

Our budget has a tilt to vacations and food, and away from shelter and transportation.
by market timer
Sat Jan 13, 2018 3:51 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Post your Financial Milestone Announcements Here
Replies: 258
Views: 24141

Re: Post your Financial Milestone Announcements Here

I wonder what Market Timer is up to these days. He and I were experimenting with (dying from??) leverage on the way down in 2008 and are near the same age as far as I can tell. Interesting to see his change in philosophy over time when it comes to money, work, spending the portfolio etc. Sounds lik...
by market timer
Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is it time for me to "call in rich"?
Replies: 75
Views: 12549

Re: Is it time for me to "call in rich"?

Sounds like you are mostly retiring away from a 28-year-old boss and not to pursue anything in particular. I also tried an early retirement and was pretty bored after about six months. You say you could easily get another job in another part of the world. Personally, I would try that if I were you. ...
by market timer
Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:36 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 3497
Views: 986160

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

AlphaGo on Netflix Documentary on the recent match between Google DeepMind's AlphaGo program and Go World Champion Lee Sedol, in which a computer program finally surpassed human ability in this complex game. It's a fascinating topic and well done film. I get the feeling like humans will increasingl...