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by market timer
Fri Jul 12, 2019 10:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 3844
Views: 1105442

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

With all the press around Jeffrey Epstein, I finally decided to get around to Lolita, specifically the Audible version narrated by Jeremy Irons. It's incredible.
by market timer
Fri Jul 12, 2019 9:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What asset class is gold?
Replies: 41
Views: 2652

Re: What asset class is gold?

Agree that commodities are their own asset class. Still, it helps to understand what drives performance. For example, I own gold and oil. Gold behaves very similar to long term inflation indexed bonds (see below). Gold benefits when real interest rates decline. Oil is more highly correlated with eco...
by market timer
Sat Jul 06, 2019 10:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Job Promotion - How to Show on Resume
Replies: 40
Views: 3218

Re: Job Promotion - How to Show on Resume

I have added future job titles to my resume, along with expected starting date. I've also made up job titles and listed them along with the real title when an employer has clearly added responsibility without changing my title. As for why you might want to leave a job after getting a promotion, I th...
by market timer
Fri Jun 21, 2019 11:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lifecycle Investing - Leveraging when young
Replies: 227
Views: 17431

Re: Lifecycle Investing - Leveraging when young

The reason the authors discourage higher leverage is that it apparently gets very expensive. If I understand the process correctly then: Paying 500 bucks to "borrow" 28200 for 2 months is absurdly expensive. That's an annual interest of 500/28200x6x100%=10.6%. That doesn't even account for the fore...
by market timer
Fri Jun 14, 2019 11:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 2554
Views: 195880

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

I take it you are not a Modern Monetary Theorist? If deficits were a problem you would have seen rates rise long ago. The fact that they have trended persistently downward means something else is going on. I've started to see this "Modern Monetary Theory" term show up in the press more often. Seems...
by market timer
Fri Jun 14, 2019 11:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it bad to look at debt (student loans) like this?
Replies: 39
Views: 3083

Re: Is it bad to look at debt (student loans) like this?

Due to the various Income Based Repayment options, I view loans as a tax on my income. I consider it unlikely that I'll ever pay off the entire balance, and have managed to avoid making a principal payment on most of my loans, in some cases for over 20 years. Based on your other posts, it sounds li...
by market timer
Thu Jun 13, 2019 7:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 2554
Views: 195880

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

This thread reminds me of another popular strategy discussed actively on this forum 2008-2012: the Permanent Portfolio. Discussion from 2008 to 2010 (72 pages!): https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=15434 Discussion from 2010 to today: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?...
by market timer
Wed Jun 12, 2019 7:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 2554
Views: 195880

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Speaking of term premia, the Kim-Wright model of the term premium is near an all-time low:

Image
by market timer
Tue Jun 11, 2019 7:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it bad to look at debt (student loans) like this?
Replies: 39
Views: 3083

Re: Is it bad to look at debt (student loans) like this?

Due to the various Income Based Repayment options, I view loans as a tax on my income. I consider it unlikely that I'll ever pay off the entire balance, and have managed to avoid making a principal payment on most of my loans, in some cases for over 20 years.
by market timer
Fri Jun 07, 2019 10:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 3844
Views: 1105442

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Enjoyed The Spider Network , by David Enrich, on the LIBOR manipulation scandal. Made it through 80% of Killing Commendatore , by Haruki Murakami, before putting it down. Usually a big fan of Murakami, but this novel was a chore. Enjoyed Black Edge , by Sheelah Kohatkar, on the SAC insider trading s...
by market timer
Tue Jun 04, 2019 7:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 790
Views: 80878

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

You say you don't try to predict conditions but rather move in response to them. Hypothetically, if the S&P got back to the December lows would you be increasing your 10% equity position or would you need to see something more? Definitely. I was 70% equities at the low in Dec. It's not just valuati...
by market timer
Mon Jun 03, 2019 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 790
Views: 80878

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

@Market Timer: How do you incorporate forward-looking yields in this process? What are some of the equations you use to make these decisions? About the only thing I use is the Samuelson "optional equity percentage" based on volatility, equity risk premium and RRA. But I want to hear more about your...
by market timer
Fri May 31, 2019 10:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 2554
Views: 195880

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Here are the Boglehead principles. Please point out which ones I am violating: ... Invest with simplicity I'd say people would take most issue with the simplicity point. However, philosophically, I see no contradiction with what you are doing and Bogleheads principles--the market just hasn't yet pr...
by market timer
Fri May 31, 2019 10:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 790
Views: 80878

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Why would you buy equities when the bond market “knows something”? The view I express is through my position, not the action of buying and selling. This is something I didn't really appreciate for years. With a 10% allocation to equities, I'm still unusually conservative. The fact I moved 10% from ...
by market timer
Fri May 31, 2019 10:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 790
Views: 80878

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Why would you buy equities when the bond market “knows something”? The view I express is through my position, not the action of buying and selling. This is something I didn't really appreciate for years. With a 10% allocation to equities, I'm still unusually conservative. The fact I moved 10% from ...
by market timer
Fri May 31, 2019 9:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 790
Views: 80878

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

OP must be really smiling right now :) How many people believe markets will see a new high this year? Just one month back most people were happy predicting SPX at 3000. Now, we have no China deal and we have a trade war with Mexico. OP, what is your target for SPX for this year? I am predicting SPX...
by market timer
Fri May 31, 2019 9:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fun paid jobs after FIRE
Replies: 180
Views: 16543

Re: Fun paid jobs after FIRE

After FIRE'ing from my first career, I picked a job based on what sounded interesting without regard to money. It was a 50% pay cut, but my income is up 4-fold since then. Good and unexpected things happen when you follow your passion.career, I would be very interested in learning the general natur...
by market timer
Wed May 29, 2019 8:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fun paid jobs after FIRE
Replies: 180
Views: 16543

Re: Fun paid jobs after FIRE

After FIRE'ing from my first career, I picked a job based on what sounded interesting without regard to money. It was a 50% pay cut, but my income is up 4-fold since then. Good and unexpected things happen when you follow your passion. If I really start to desire flexibility, the best option would b...
by market timer
Tue May 28, 2019 8:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can we afford to pay for our kid's college (at all)?
Replies: 234
Views: 14879

Re: Can we afford to pay for our kid's college (at all)?

I'd suggest something like this: Annual cost of attendance: $25K Funds from 529: $7.5K From Federal loans (to son): $6.5K From son's summer/PT work: $5K From parents' cash flow (if GPA > 3.3): $6K If his SAT scores are very high relative to the average at his college, provided he works hard, there i...
by market timer
Wed May 22, 2019 8:26 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: $400,000 gift to stepdaughter
Replies: 76
Views: 8826

Re: $400,000 gift to stepdaughter

Among the well-off families I know, giving daughters $400K for wedding + downpayment on first house is pretty common. I'd suggest a monthly stipend while she is young and single, then letting her know you'll take care of wedding expenses down the road and provide some help with the first house. A tr...
by market timer
Wed May 22, 2019 7:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any option traders?
Replies: 41
Views: 3026

Re: Any option traders?

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by market timer
Tue May 21, 2019 8:11 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I encourage my kids to work in high school/college?
Replies: 221
Views: 12790

Re: Should I encourage my kids to work in high school/college?

Ideally, the kids will find high school work that develops skills they'll use in their careers. I'd be happy if my kids, when they reach HS age, end up working in a university research lab or doing freelance work like coding or tutoring.
by market timer
Fri May 17, 2019 8:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Why do plumbers get paid so well?
Replies: 84
Views: 6317

Re: Why do plumbers get paid so well?

Far too many people are going to college instead of into trades. Not many parents want their kids to become plumbers.
by market timer
Wed May 15, 2019 7:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 790
Views: 80878

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

If the global monetary system fails, economic growth will plummet along with demand for oil. The last time there was a breakdown of western monetary systems, 1971, it was followed by a period of skyrocketing commodity prices and slowing economic growth. It's not an investment outlook, just somethin...
by market timer
Wed May 15, 2019 8:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 790
Views: 80878

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

With my long run asset allocation, I try to achieve a feeling of indifference with respect to price movements. Then what is your rationale for holding 30% in gold + precious metals (which I imagine could be volatile) ? I have 15% in precious metals and another 15% in long-dated oil futures and oil ...
by market timer
Tue May 14, 2019 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 790
Views: 80878

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Out of most of the QQQ short at ~179 today Why ? What, in your perception, changed ? With my long run asset allocation, I try to achieve a feeling of indifference with respect to price movements. This doesn't necessarily mean a 100% cash allocation. I could own some equities and not care about pric...
by market timer
Mon May 13, 2019 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 790
Views: 80878

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Out of most of the QQQ short at ~179 today. Added a small position (8%) to int'l equities. Used the rally in 5-year Treasuries (to under 2.2% yield) to hedge duration on my investment grade bond fund. New allocation: 10% gold 5% silver 15% crude oil and oil majors 10% long term bonds -8% US equities...
by market timer
Sat May 04, 2019 10:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: College/life prep for young kids
Replies: 79
Views: 6360

Re: College/life prep for young kids

Perhaps more important is what my children did since they are in their twenties. I don't recall them using any guidance counselors. Mostly they did what their peers and friends did. That speaks to sending your children to a decent public school where most of the children go on to college for whatev...
by market timer
Fri May 03, 2019 11:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Rotational Program at MegaCorp for college grad hires
Replies: 40
Views: 2371

Re: Rotational Program at MegaCorp for college grad hires

My son was hired at a Megacorp last year into a 2 year rotational program as a new college grad. He loved his first rotation, and his hiring manager would love for him to stay, but the rotation HR program manager said the program does not allow it. Hiring managers often use HR as an excuse for outc...
by market timer
Thu May 02, 2019 11:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Has anyone down-shifted in their career?
Replies: 59
Views: 7017

Re: Has anyone down-shifted in their career?

Great thread. I'm about to get another team to manage ( total directs: from 4 to ~9 or 10) and I'm not enthused. No title change. I've had to ask my manager to consider asking the VP for more comp (RSU's...or something considering the change...). I'd love to coast the next 10 years. Pesky corp poli...
by market timer
Wed May 01, 2019 9:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Has anyone down-shifted in their career?
Replies: 59
Views: 7017

Re: Has anyone down-shifted in their career?

Sounds like the problem is the pressure you put on yourself, not necessarily the demands of the job. If you establish some boundaries, and get better at saying "no" (or delegating), you should be able to achieve everything you want in your current role. I'm in a very similar situation, and the main ...
by market timer
Mon Apr 29, 2019 8:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 790
Views: 80878

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

MT put the short in at QQQ=185 and its currently at ~191 so only 3% down. I doubt MT would be perturbed by that. MT mentioned this position is largely a hedge so I guess the market going up makes him more secure in his job remuneration. All true and QQQs are down ~1% after hours (at 189.4) thanks t...
by market timer
Mon Apr 29, 2019 8:33 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Downshift ("Barista FI") while consulting and raising kids? [Switzerland]
Replies: 82
Views: 7369

Re: Downshift ("Barista FI") while consulting and raising kids? [Switzerland]

We're in a similar situation and I like the idea of Barista FI. However, I would not rely on a 4% withdrawal rate for such a long horizon, given current valuations. I'd suggest starting at 3%. What's unclear to me is whether you have any pension income you can rely on after you stop earning income a...
by market timer
Sun Apr 28, 2019 7:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why buy period certain annuity?
Replies: 13
Views: 1136

Re: Why buy period certain annuity?

I have considered period certain annuities as a way to defer taxes from high income years (say, age 40) to retirement (say, age 60). As I understand, a period certain annuity with deferred income would benefit from tax-deferred compounding of interest (albeit not at very high rates today). Additiona...
by market timer
Fri Apr 26, 2019 8:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Whats the Point of Climbing the Corporate Ladder?
Replies: 164
Views: 17192

Re: Whats the Point of Climbing the Corporate Ladder?

Having moved several rungs up the ladder in my career, I can say that the higher I am on the totem pole, the better I feel the job suits my abilities and interests. I'm terrible at execution and have ADD that makes me very inefficient at doing tasks, but I'm good at high level strategy and coming up...
by market timer
Thu Apr 25, 2019 8:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Investment advice for $800,000 age 62
Replies: 24
Views: 3285

Re: Investment advice for $800,000 age 62

I'd look into a deferred income annuity that starts in 5 years. I haven't requested a quote, but roughly you should be able to get around $30K/year inflation adjusted without stock market risk for $600K.
by market timer
Tue Apr 23, 2019 8:48 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: At what age did you buy your first first class airplane ticket?
Replies: 112
Views: 4709

Re: At what age did you buy your first first class airplane ticket?

I'll pay for int'l biz class for myself or a companion if I'm flying on the company dime. If I'm traveling with my family of 4, we'll fly economy, potentially with a stopover half-way on long-haul flights. That's been my policy since my mid 30s, when I first hit $1M.
by market timer
Mon Apr 22, 2019 8:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timers thread
Replies: 214
Views: 14043

Re: Market timers thread

The far more pessimistic scenario for me (from an asset pricing perspective) involves fiscal imbalances reaching a breaking point, rising populism leading to meaningful policy changes, and inflation. The economy is so leveraged today that a return to moderately high inflation and interest rates wou...
by market timer
Fri Apr 19, 2019 11:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timers thread
Replies: 214
Views: 14043

Re: Market timers thread

anoop wrote:
Fri Apr 19, 2019 11:29 pm
There are so many imbalances in every area of the economy now, it's like cancer patient taking (and cannot function without) alternate chemo and transfusions.
I'm an adherent of Herbert Stein's Law (father of Ben): "If something cannot go on forever, it will stop."
by market timer
Fri Apr 19, 2019 11:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timers thread
Replies: 214
Views: 14043

Re: Market timers thread

That said, I don’t think a recession or even a correction is imminent mainly because that is what CalculatedRisk writes (no recession, he avoids talking about stocks) and he has been accurate so far. If we have a recession in the next year or two, my guess is it will look like the 2001 recession. T...
by market timer
Thu Apr 18, 2019 9:06 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Job Offer Evaluation - FANG
Replies: 101
Views: 10536

Re: Job Offer Evaluation - FANG

As I understand, Amazon offers spousal employment assistance and will even buy your house from you if you can't find a buyer in a reasonable amount of time.
by market timer
Thu Apr 18, 2019 8:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 790
Views: 80878

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

5. React more than you predict. Wait for fat pitches when opportunity is obvious. Know the limitations of your ability to predict something as complex as asset price movements. Appreciate the disruptive potential of technology and politics. Aren't you predicting now that market will go down? If it ...
by market timer
Thu Apr 18, 2019 7:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 790
Views: 80878

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

5. React more than you predict. Wait for fat pitches when opportunity is obvious. Know the limitations of your ability to predict something as complex as asset price movements. Appreciate the disruptive potential of technology and politics. Aren't you predicting now that market will go down? If it ...
by market timer
Wed Apr 17, 2019 7:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 790
Views: 80878

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Do you seriously expect to outperform on a risk adjusted basis, after taking into account taxes, trading costs, and your time? My goal is not to outperform the market on a risk adjusted basis. I would characterize my strategy as the outcome of the following principles: 1. Work backwards from the en...
by market timer
Wed Apr 17, 2019 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 790
Views: 80878

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

I like commodities as a hedge against central banks losing control. What's your take on CCFs? Vanguard's new offering? I've never seen a CCF I've liked. The fundamental problem with CCFs is that they have to roll contracts regularly (typically monthly), so if the fund has any size, there are large ...
by market timer
Wed Apr 17, 2019 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 790
Views: 80878

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Edit: Put on the short quite recently, QQQ at 185. Why not use the inverse QQQ ETF ? Do you buy physical silver or the ETF? Inverse QQQ has the same long term tracking issues as leveraged ETFs, since exposure is reset daily. For silver, I use SLV. Not a huge fan of the 0.5% expense ratio, but bette...
by market timer
Tue Apr 16, 2019 11:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 790
Views: 80878

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Made some trades: 1. Covered my 5-year Treasury short that was hedging investment grade bond duration (initiated when the 5-year was at 2.24%, now 2.41%). The Treasury curve is no longer significantly inverted. The hedge gained 0.8% on $460K notional exposure. 2. Bought a 5% position in silver that ...
by market timer
Tue Apr 16, 2019 11:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 790
Views: 80878

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Markettimer, if the market continues to grind upward for the next 2 or 3 years where will you stop yourself out? If you are playing without a stop you are letting yourself in for unlimited losses on your 20% short since historically the market marches up. At what level did you put on your short? Th...
by market timer
Tue Apr 16, 2019 6:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bogleheads, why won't anyone hire me?
Replies: 194
Views: 17966

Re: Bogleheads, why won't anyone hire me?

I do not know what to do anymore. Due to my hustle, I have 100k in a vanguard account, own a house in which roommates pay the mortgage, 15k in my bank account, however it would be nice to actually get a career now and enjoy my life. I could be way off-base in my assessment--have only skimmed the th...