Search found 5937 matches

by market timer
Sat Jan 19, 2019 9:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2299
Views: 399778

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Also use a fudge factor of 1.2 for Roth IRA performance, i.e., $1 in Roth is worth $1.20 in taxable or traditional IRA. Using "Beardstown accounting" I'm up 22% last year. The bottom line counts. :greedy Purchasing power at the time you plan to spend the money counts. What I'm doing is just a form ...
by market timer
Sat Jan 19, 2019 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2299
Views: 399778

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Edit: How do you account for EE bonds performance, when you calculate annual performance? Do you pro-rate 3.5% return (assuming you are holding onto 20 years) or equivalent 20 year duration bond performance or some other variation For EE bonds, I currently treat them as zero coupon bonds with no em...
by market timer
Sat Jan 19, 2019 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2299
Views: 399778

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Are you US based? I thought IAU is taxed as collectibles, so better placed in IRA or 401k (Gains on collectibles held for one year or less are taxed as ordinary income—the same tax treatment as short-term capital gains (STCGs). Gains on collectibles held more than one year are taxed as ordinary inc...
by market timer
Sat Jan 19, 2019 10:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2299
Views: 399778

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Nice start to the year: +6.5%. Dialed back some exposure to commodities and to equities due to options expiring and gamma . Now at 55% equities, 15% gold, 15% oil, 10% LT bonds, 5% cash. Are you expressing your views mostly thru' options? Is it thru futures or ETF's? I use all of the above. IAU (go...
by market timer
Fri Jan 18, 2019 7:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2299
Views: 399778

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

hdas wrote:
Fri Jan 18, 2019 7:32 pm
market timer wrote:
Fri Jan 18, 2019 7:29 pm
Nice start to the year: +6.5%. Dialed back some exposure to commodities and to equities due to options expiring and gamma. Now at 55% equities, 15% gold, 15% oil, 10% LT bonds, 5% cash.
How did u end up on 2018?. H
+5.5%
by market timer
Fri Jan 18, 2019 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2299
Views: 399778

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Nice start to the year: +6.5%. Dialed back some exposure to commodities and to equities due to options expiring and gamma. Now at 55% equities, 15% gold, 15% oil, 10% LT bonds, 5% cash.
by market timer
Tue Jan 15, 2019 7:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Millionaire by 40 and How you Did it?
Replies: 90
Views: 10185

Re: Millionaire by 40 and How you Did it?

I did it by consistently earning a top 1% income, according to the table below.
hdas wrote:
Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:24 am
Image
by market timer
Mon Jan 14, 2019 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand the case for EE bonds
Replies: 392
Views: 35688

Re: I don't understand the case for EE bonds

I just purchased my annual installment of $10K EE bonds. Hope to use them for my daughter's final semester in college, assuming interest rates remain low in the interim.
by market timer
Fri Jan 04, 2019 12:40 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone here major in Economics in college?
Replies: 92
Views: 7024

Re: Anyone here major in Economics in college?

She thinks she wants to be an economics major in college because she wants to be an economist, CFO, or maybe a financial planner. Plus, math and science are (by far) her strongest subjects yet she has no desire to go into Engineering or the Sciences. She wants to go, "into business because there wi...
by market timer
Thu Dec 27, 2018 3:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2299
Views: 399778

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

After the recent sell-off in equities and crude oil, I'm now only up 2% YTD. This is a 7% drop in the past two weeks. I sold my position in long term bonds yesterday. Now at 70% equities, 20% gold, 20% oil, and -10% cash. Have you increased your equity position during the last 5-6% down? Thanks for...
by market timer
Fri Dec 21, 2018 12:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2299
Views: 399778

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

I'm a trend follower, but you make me look a dyed-in-the-wool buy and holder! :wink: Are you primarily trying to manage risk, or are you trying to generate alpha? Primarily risk management. However, I have a fairly idiosyncratic measure of risk. Most people think of risk in terms of return variance...
by market timer
Thu Dec 20, 2018 11:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2299
Views: 399778

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Out of curiosity, how far out of the money are the puts you wrote and how long dated are they? For the most part, ~5% out-of-the-money puts expiring in the next few months. Also short some longer dated at-the-money puts on CVX and XOM. Did you close out the puts before losing much? Cvx and xom also...
by market timer
Thu Dec 20, 2018 11:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2299
Views: 399778

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Out of curiosity, how far out of the money are the puts you wrote and how long dated are they? For the most part, ~5% out-of-the-money puts expiring in the next few months. Also short some longer dated at-the-money puts on CVX and XOM. Curious to know what is going on with your portfolio given the ...
by market timer
Tue Dec 18, 2018 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation
Replies: 182
Views: 17042

Re: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation

I don't recall MMM suggesting you use a 5% withdrawal rate without regard to market conditions, but rather that you adapt spending if there is a downturn. It's more a variable withdrawal rate. Also, he notes that early retirees often find ways to earn money after retirement.
by market timer
Wed Dec 12, 2018 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008
Replies: 249
Views: 20307

Re: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008

Also market timer who went into the Crash leveraged, lost over $1m, made it back - another very interesting thread. Not quite a million -- I only lost about $250K, but that left me $210K in debt with no assets and hardly any income at the time. Really a fascinating period. Not only was I dealing wi...
by market timer
Mon Dec 10, 2018 7:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2299
Views: 399778

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

jminv wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 5:27 am
Out of curiosity, how far out of the money are the puts you wrote and how long dated are they?
For the most part, ~5% out-of-the-money puts expiring in the next few months. Also short some longer dated at-the-money puts on CVX and XOM.
by market timer
Sat Dec 08, 2018 5:13 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: options to cover next 10 years before SS
Replies: 49
Views: 3982

Re: options to cover next 10 years before SS

Given that 5-year Treasuries yield 2.69%, I'm surprised the annuity only yields 2.91%. Would suggest shopping around for a better rate. With regard to your idea of borrowing $600K to invest in a 50/50 portfolio, I think it's very risky. With regard to your mom's expectation to spend $70K/year, it se...
by market timer
Fri Dec 07, 2018 8:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2299
Views: 399778

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Solidly up for the year on oil. Overall portfolio up around 9% YTD. Current allocation now roughly equal parts gold, oil, LT bonds, US equities, int'l equities. Nice, is this an unlevered portfolio?. H If stocks completely tank, I'm on the hook for another 40% of exposure via short puts on equity i...
by market timer
Fri Dec 07, 2018 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2299
Views: 399778

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

+7% YTD Had some nice gains in crude oil and buying the spring dip in health care REITs. How did you manage your position during the 25 bucks straight down move? Had a 15% allocation to crude up until Oct 3rd Sold half position when crude was at $76 Sold puts on CVX and XOM on Oct 23rd (equivalent ...
by market timer
Wed Dec 05, 2018 6:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10123
Views: 1785534

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

J G Bankerton wrote:
Wed Dec 05, 2018 4:27 am
Good thing US markets are closed. Europe and Asia are still freefalling. I don't have any money left to buy dips anyway. :(
International markets just following Tuesday's action in the US. US equity futures are trading right now and up about 0.5% since Tuesday's close.
by market timer
Mon Dec 03, 2018 8:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Older Dads - how do you plan for your own retirement while still raising kids?
Replies: 38
Views: 5192

Re: Older Dads - how do you plan for your own retirement while still raising kids?

In your situation, I'd probably retire and downsize fairly soon and relocate to a state with good public colleges, where the kids can attend inexpensively and perhaps even live at home. This is basically my plan when the kids near college age. In-state tuition and cost of living are reasonable at sc...
by market timer
Sun Dec 02, 2018 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My kid's retirement
Replies: 49
Views: 3492

Re: My kid's retirement

(2) Not sure it's a great idea to deny my kids the opportunity to make it on their own. It's all academic anyway since the whole baby-modeling-to-fund-kids-IRA is largely unworkable. But, if you assume you can teach your kids enough that they let the IRA sit and don't loot it early, then how is it ...
by market timer
Sun Dec 02, 2018 9:01 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My kid's retirement
Replies: 49
Views: 3492

Re: My kid's retirement

If I were to do this, I wouldn't claim fake income from modeling. I'd probably file a schedule C for my children and call their allowance self-employment income. As I understand, Social Security taxes (both employer and employee) would need to be paid on the income, along with income taxes at the pa...
by market timer
Tue Nov 27, 2018 9:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I go back to my 6 figure job?
Replies: 20
Views: 2439

Re: Should I go back to my 6 figure job?

Negotiate humane vacation package with first company, at least 4 weeks PTO. See if you can structure a 40-hour work week.
by market timer
Mon Nov 26, 2018 8:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I'm so CHEAP! Don't think it is healthy.
Replies: 36
Views: 6899

Re: I'm so CHEAP! Don't think it is healthy.

workingovertime wrote:
Sun Nov 25, 2018 1:58 pm
My wife and I are fine financially (not great). We make about $60-70k combined
It will be much easier to increase your income than to cut your expenses.
by market timer
Sat Nov 24, 2018 12:31 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How many vacations per year is optimal?
Replies: 53
Views: 4757

Re: How many vacations per year is optimal?

Why not take upaid leave? Same as paying for vaca? Or are there job restrictions that prevent taking more leave than you have? I’ve never run out of vaca which is why I ask. Yes, unpaid leave is the same as paying for vaca. In either case, would need to be negotiated. Can't just take an extra 8 wee...
by market timer
Fri Nov 23, 2018 10:37 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How many vacations per year is optimal?
Replies: 53
Views: 4757

Re: How many vacations per year is optimal?

We typically take several with two kids: 3-week vacation to some place that involves a 10+ hour flight 1-week relaxing vacation at a beach resort 1-week vacation to a large city for food, shopping, and museums A few short getaways for long weekends This is pretty nice, but I'd still prefer to add a ...
by market timer
Wed Nov 21, 2018 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: technology index funds
Replies: 18
Views: 1614

Re: technology index funds

Bad idea.

To encourage you to sell, have a look at this article: https://www.businessinsider.com/rest-an ... ley-2017-7

Your investments are diluted by shares issued to these people and often not even expensed on financial statements.
by market timer
Tue Nov 13, 2018 8:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone change career/ start over again?
Replies: 8
Views: 1916

Re: Anyone change career/ start over again?

It would help to know the change you are considering, otherwise advice will be very generic.
by market timer
Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are we in trouble?
Replies: 122
Views: 18265

Re: Are we in trouble?

You guys will probably be fine, but I would be totally uncomfortable in this situation. Having been burned using leverage once, I'm rather debt averse, particularly with the window of peak earning years closing. Just imagine a 2008 downturn scenario where you are carrying what sounds like $1.5mn in ...
by market timer
Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: High Earners - What's Your Profession?
Replies: 712
Views: 116693

Re: High Earners - What's Your Profession?

I do math wearing a t-shirt. I used to do math wearing a suit.
by market timer
Thu Nov 01, 2018 7:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2299
Views: 399778

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

+7% YTD

Had some nice gains in crude oil and buying the spring dip in health care REITs.
by market timer
Tue Oct 30, 2018 8:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Calculating ROI for PhD
Replies: 86
Views: 4905

Re: Calculating ROI for PhD

Don't get a PhD for the ROI. Do it so you can study what you want and never have a boss. What does having a phD have to do with not having a boss? Unless you own your own company you will always have someone above you who tells you what to do. The PHD from MIT working at Citadel has a boss (like my...
by market timer
Tue Oct 30, 2018 9:06 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Calculating ROI for PhD
Replies: 86
Views: 4905

Re: Calculating ROI for PhD

Don't get a PhD for the ROI. Do it so you can study what you want and never have a boss.
by market timer
Sun Oct 28, 2018 8:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Am I doing well financially?
Replies: 162
Views: 12891

Re: Am I doing well financially?

OP, sounds like you and your wife are just getting used to the higher salary--probably buying furniture for the new home, etc. Perhaps that is bringing the saving rate down in the short run. Given your ages and your plans to have kids, it's probably going to happen pretty soon. That means either you...
by market timer
Sat Oct 27, 2018 10:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: For those waiting for a 'correction' ...
Replies: 109
Views: 1236031

Re: For those waiting for a 'correction' ...

I've had essentially a 0% equity allocation most of 2018. Added a 25% position to international stocks over the past couple months. Added a 10% position to US equities on the latest downturn by selling put options. Will continue to add to these positions if the correction intensifies. As ever, my cr...
by market timer
Sat Oct 27, 2018 8:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Working in NYC: Live in NY or NJ for tax optimization?
Replies: 25
Views: 1861

Re: Working in NYC: Live in NY or NJ for tax optimization?

I spent a couple years living in the Exchange Place area of NJ and taking the ferry to WTC. It was a pleasant commute. As mentioned, the main tax benefit is you save on the NYC resident tax. One thing I did not realize until I was hit with a tax bill later was that carry forward losses cannot offset...
by market timer
Fri Oct 26, 2018 10:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's everyone currently in?
Replies: 93
Views: 8302

Re: What's everyone currently in?

As of Friday's close,

20% gold
30% long term Treasuries
10% oil and oil majors
15% emerging markets equities
10% developed international markets equities
7% S&P 500 index
8% muni bonds
by market timer
Sun Oct 21, 2018 5:01 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Pull kids from school for vacations?
Replies: 136
Views: 6142

Re: Pull kids from school for vacations?

DW and I always try to bring our kids with us on international trips, regardless of whether school is in session. We both hated classroom settings growing up.
by market timer
Mon Oct 08, 2018 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there an arbitrage opportunity when the imputed tax rate on a municipal bond varies from one's actual tax rate?
Replies: 5
Views: 530

Re: Is there an arbitrage opportunity when the imputed tax rate on a municipal bond varies from one's actual tax rate?

There is definitely a case to be made that municipal bonds should only be used by people in relatively high income tax brackets. However, I wouldn't call it arbitrage exactly, since municipal bonds carry some risk. The real arbitrage is if you can issue tax free bonds and invest in taxable bonds, an...
by market timer
Sat Sep 29, 2018 10:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: College Student Performance Issues
Replies: 83
Views: 4721

Re: College Student Performance Issues

Time to cut the cord. She will never become an adult if you are micromanaging her. Perhaps it is reasonable to establish some minimal criteria that must be satisfied if you are to continue funding her college: a certain GPA, number of credit-hours, etc. Otherwise, let her make some mistakes and lear...
by market timer
Sat Sep 29, 2018 10:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rekenthaler: "So much for the bond bubble"
Replies: 18
Views: 3010

Re: Rekenthaler: "So much for the bond bubble"

A worst-case scenario for the bond market is not the US in 1994. It is Russia in 1998, Japan in the 1940s, Germany in the 1920s, and many other examples throughout history. The US is approaching WW2 levels of debt-to-GDP with expansionary fiscal policy at the top of the business cycle. The financial...
by market timer
Mon Sep 24, 2018 8:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 4050
Views: 1102019

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

Just started the multi-part documentary The Defiant Ones, about the collaboration between Dr. Dre and James Iovine. Highly recommended.
by market timer
Mon Sep 24, 2018 8:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Changing careers (changing gears) - Can I?
Replies: 10
Views: 1074

Re: Changing careers (changing gears) - Can I?

I'd suggest looking into product management roles at tech companies. This is a generalist role that, to use your words, "typically tells an employee the project scope and has them do it."
by market timer
Sat Sep 22, 2018 3:33 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Leveraged investing using a loan
Replies: 1
Views: 312

Re: Leveraged investing using a loan

I wouldn't call this leveraged investing. You are potentially borrowing from yourself to invest, so I don't believe the interest rate is all that relevant. Perhaps it is only to the extent that your business will owe tax on the interest, but you are unlikely to be able to write-off the interest paid...
by market timer
Mon Sep 17, 2018 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Disrupted Expectations
Replies: 53
Views: 6355

Re: Larry Swedroe: Disrupted Expectations

Dividend investors: spherical Holsteins give more milk. Target date glide slope designers: if you simply lift a spherical calf every day, by the time it is grown you will be able to lift a 1,700-pound spherical bull. LOL! I'm partial to the NEET investors: Why buy the spherical cow when you can get...
by market timer
Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Commodities have never been cheaper - time to buy?
Replies: 46
Views: 5299

Re: Commodities have never been cheaper - time to buy?

zaboomafoozarg wrote:
Mon Sep 10, 2018 8:46 am
If I recall correctly, he retired years ago at age 30ish after getting out of the -$200k "different approach to asset allocation" hole and saving up about $1M.
Valuethinker is right. I'm back at work and enjoying the booming economy, now close to the second million.
by market timer
Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Commodities have never been cheaper - time to buy?
Replies: 46
Views: 5299

Re: Commodities have never been cheaper - time to buy?

To what extent is this shaped by the rest of your personal portfolio? - you work in financial services in an area that would be affected by movements in the main market indices? - private investments by you or your family, (if any)? Yes, both of those play a significant role in my allocation decisi...
by market timer
Mon Sep 10, 2018 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Commodities have never been cheaper - time to buy?
Replies: 46
Views: 5299

Re: Commodities have never been cheaper - time to buy?

No real estate? Leveraged real estate pays you in 5 different ways and is a great inflation hedge. I believe even the current gov't posted inflation rate is the highest its been in 6 years. Gold pays you in 0 ways (maybe 1 way - capital appreciation, but not very much of it) I love real estate as a...