Search found 6114 matches

by market timer
Sat Nov 09, 2019 11:55 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Spend It All vs. Leave $$ for the Kids
Replies: 192
Views: 14860

Re: Spend It All vs. Leave $$ for the Kids

As a minimalist myself, the consumption question is whether to spend the money on my kids today vs. let them spend it when I die. My budget is focused primarily on my kids: private school tuition, housing, and travel. I aim to spend $80-100K/year on household expenses until my kids are launched. My ...
by market timer
Fri Nov 08, 2019 11:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Corporate ladder advice
Replies: 8
Views: 1098

Re: Corporate ladder advice

I find management to be a fascinating challenge. There are so many types of managers and employees, it is hard to give generic advice. What I would suggest is starting with a problem that you want to solve that requires more manpower than you alone have. You can lead this type of project without for...
by market timer
Wed Oct 23, 2019 7:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Rebrand to a new career...
Replies: 19
Views: 2308

Re: Rebrand to a new career...

Independent consulting might work, especially for startup companies that might not be able to afford a full-time role. Use your marketing skills to promote yourself. Start with a low fee and gradually increase it as you get more clients.
by market timer
Wed Oct 23, 2019 7:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Inherited a very large carryforward loss, now what?
Replies: 22
Views: 3973

Re: Inherited a very large carryforward loss, now what?

As for changing your investment strategy, I suppose it might make you prefer cap gains to dividends, moreso than usual. Yes, and one way to get the same return, but better tax treatment, is to own a synthetic long options position or long futures position. This converts dividends to capital gains. ...
by market timer
Mon Sep 16, 2019 7:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: TD Ameritrade Money Market Options
Replies: 89
Views: 18916

Re: TD Ameritrade Money Market Options

I just received an email from TD Ameritrade saying they are "simplifying" their list of money market funds. Many of the funds mentioned on this thread will no longer available to new investors starting September 16. Do people see any implications for those of us currently invested in the funds? I us...
by market timer
Thu Sep 12, 2019 7:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 817
Views: 100911

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Im out of short Ultras @193-00 this morning. That's a nice $35K gain (but could have been over $60K if you waited a bit longer...) I'm also out of my bond short and back to hibernation mode. New allocation (+change since mid-August): 22% precious metals (flat) 13% crude oil and oil majors (flat) 10...
by market timer
Thu Aug 29, 2019 7:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lifecycle Investing - Leveraging when young
Replies: 631
Views: 46129

Re: Lifecycle Investing - Leveraging when young

IIRC, exercised option costs are rolled into the purchased asset's cost basis. Unsure about this, but since the asset purchase would negate the option, it seems like the click would start all over again. If the options are rolled, the worthless one would be a loss, the valuable one would be cap gai...
by market timer
Wed Aug 28, 2019 7:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lifecycle Investing - Leveraging when young
Replies: 631
Views: 46129

Re: Lifecycle Investing - Leveraging when young

Looking through the Greeks of the Dec 2021 LEAPs (and also other expirations), it looks like every call under 215 has a Delta of 1 and Gamma of 0. This means the market sees a drop to 21500 in the S&P as a near impossibility. The values of the Dec 2021 puts suggest there is a reasonable likelihood ...
by market timer
Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lifecycle Investing - Leveraging when young
Replies: 631
Views: 46129

Re: Lifecycle Investing - Leveraging when young

Looking through the Greeks of the Dec 2021 LEAPs (and also other expirations), it looks like every call under 215 has a Delta of 1 and Gamma of 0. This means the market sees a drop to 21500 in the S&P as a near impossibility. The values of the Dec 2021 puts suggest there is a reasonable likelihood ...
by market timer
Wed Aug 28, 2019 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lifecycle Investing - Leveraging when young
Replies: 631
Views: 46129

Re: Lifecycle Investing - Leveraging when young

Looking through the Greeks of the Dec 2021 LEAPs (and also other expirations), it looks like every call under 215 has a Delta of 1 and Gamma of 0. This means the market sees a drop to 21500 in the S&P as a near impossibility. The values of the Dec 2021 puts suggest there is a reasonable likelihood ...
by market timer
Wed Aug 28, 2019 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 817
Views: 100911

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

This morning I couldn't take it anymore. I sold 5 Dec Ultras @ 200. Hopefully you have been trading your position around so it's not just a gash of 15 big points against you. Cheers :greedy Nice trade. I added slightly an hour ago, a single future, to my short position at 199'28. While I have trade...
by market timer
Sat Aug 24, 2019 8:47 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: White collars- How much is your work downtime?
Replies: 203
Views: 17791

Re: White collars- How much is your work downtime?

My work style is rather unusual. I spend about 4 hours per day doing what most people would consider work--in meetings, giving presentations, whatever. The rest of my day is spent in a kind of internal dialogue or meditation. This can take place anywhere--on a treadmill, in a cafe, in a pool. I beli...
by market timer
Wed Aug 21, 2019 10:06 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Life Advice: deciding what you want to do.
Replies: 49
Views: 4901

Re: Life Advice: deciding what you want to do.

For most white collar jobs, EQ is extremely important, so being on the autistic spectrum is a huge drawback. In your situation, I'd go the nepotism route and ask Mom or Dad for a job at one of their companies. Then I'd try my best to be grateful and not make enemies, which is not so easy for people ...
by market timer
Sun Aug 18, 2019 8:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Selective Colleges
Replies: 339
Views: 19781

Re: Selective Colleges

It is still a while until my children will enter the college admissions game. Sticker of $300K seems a bit rich to me. Maybe we'd pay that for a top 5. Another option to consider is a good overseas school like Oxford or Cambridge. With GBP/USD at 1.21, Oxford's cost of attendance is about $42K/year,...
by market timer
Sat Aug 17, 2019 11:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone retire in their 30s?
Replies: 108
Views: 14471

Re: Anyone retire in their 30s?

That last comment really resonates with my current situation. I’m just burned out and kind of “done” with any sort of corporate role, disillusioned with its rigid culture and work/life balance, and lack of meaningful incentives for exceptional performance. Most people think of their job as a game w...
by market timer
Sat Aug 17, 2019 11:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone retire in their 30s?
Replies: 108
Views: 14471

Re: Anyone retire in their 30s?

I left the grind at age 34. After a few months, I decided retirement wasn't how I wanted to spend the rest of my days. I focused on a few things I enjoy doing: solving hard problems, learning new things, teaching, and mentoring. So I've tried to structure my second career around these activities whi...
by market timer
Fri Aug 16, 2019 8:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 817
Views: 100911

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

... Now let's say you want to borrow for 30 years. You can replace everything I said above about 5-year futures with ultra futures. If you want to borrow for 30 years, eventually 10 years will pass, and likewise your duration and DV01 will decline. During this time, you can adjust duration in a few...
by market timer
Thu Aug 15, 2019 8:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 817
Views: 100911

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

The move in long term bonds has been astonishing. Fortunately, precious metals have largely offset losses from lower yields. I don't expect to short at the exact top, and still think borrowing at 2.24% for 30 years is a pretty sweet deal. Let's see how this looks in a year. How does a retail invest...
by market timer
Thu Aug 15, 2019 7:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 817
Views: 100911

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Haven't updated since mid-May. Used the downturn in late May / early June to rotate from long term bonds to equities (mostly int'l). Used today's equity selloff and bond rally to do more of the same. Now have essentially locked in 30-year borrowing rates of 2.24% to buy int'l equities. New allocati...
by market timer
Tue Aug 13, 2019 8:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Interest rates low: leverage up?
Replies: 63
Views: 4898

Re: Interest rates low: leverage up?

Interest rates were low like this not long ago. Why didn't you do this then? Long term rates have only been this low briefly in the days following the 2016 Brexit vote. Personally, I am not interested in taking on more than 100% equities, but I am in favor of a long equities / short Treasuries pair...
by market timer
Tue Aug 13, 2019 7:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Interest rates low: leverage up?
Replies: 63
Views: 4898

Re: Interest rates low: leverage up?

Interest rates were low like this not long ago. Why didn't you do this then? Long term rates have only been this low briefly in the days following the 2016 Brexit vote. Personally, I am not interested in taking on more than 100% equities, but I am in favor of a long equities / short Treasuries pair...
by market timer
Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How can a bond fund's duration be longer than its maturity?
Replies: 5
Views: 694

Re: How can a bond fund's duration be longer than its maturity?

In the case of this fund, I think it's a data issue. The two numbers were measured at different times:

Weighted Avg Maturity
5.60 Years
7/31/2019

Duration
5.73 Years
6/30/2019

https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/mutua ... /316089101
by market timer
Wed Aug 07, 2019 7:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why won’t anyone hire me?
Replies: 156
Views: 15867

Re: Why won’t anyone hire me?

Entry-level skills for an office job would include knowledge of stuff like SQL and Tableau. Sorry, that makes no sense. There are millions of office jobs. Only a tiny percent of those require SQL and Tableau. Agreed. No matter what specific software you're familiar with, especially outside of the u...
by market timer
Tue Aug 06, 2019 9:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 817
Views: 100911

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

How much do you need to post (or expect to post given fluctuations) to maintain the short position and what qualifies as collateral? I assume the requirement must be generous in order to justify the leverage considering your large cash position in aggregate? An ultra bond has a notional value of $1...
by market timer
Tue Aug 06, 2019 7:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 817
Views: 100911

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Interesting. What is now your investment total return over different time horizons compared to a Boglehead strategy (buy and hold; three fund portfolio; annual rebalancing) with a similar risk profile? For the community, it would be beneficial if you posted the comparative returns too. Thanks in ad...
by market timer
Tue Aug 06, 2019 7:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 817
Views: 100911

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

What mechanism do you use to short long-term bonds, and how is it that the effective borrowing rate is so low? My understanding was that the government can borrow at treasury rates, but other entities generally can't because they are considered riskier counterparties. I thought that futures and opt...
by market timer
Tue Aug 06, 2019 7:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 817
Views: 100911

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

What is the "cash" invested in, market timer? I have to ask because it's probably a fancy answer. :beer I described my cash allocation here: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=275865&start=350#p4453462 Also included in cash are things like I bonds and duration-hedged EE bonds. I ...
by market timer
Mon Aug 05, 2019 8:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 817
Views: 100911

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Haven't updated since mid-May. Used the downturn in late May / early June to rotate from long term bonds to equities (mostly int'l). Used today's equity selloff and bond rally to do more of the same. Now have essentially locked in 30-year borrowing rates of 2.24% to buy int'l equities. New allocatio...
by market timer
Sun Aug 04, 2019 7:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why won’t anyone hire me?
Replies: 156
Views: 15867

Re: Why won’t anyone hire me?

Entry-level skills for an office job would include knowledge of stuff like SQL and Tableau. Sorry, that makes no sense. There are millions of office jobs. Only a tiny percent of those require SQL and Tableau. Agreed. No matter what specific software you're familiar with, especially outside of the u...
by market timer
Sat Aug 03, 2019 11:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why won’t anyone hire me?
Replies: 156
Views: 15867

Re: Why won’t anyone hire me?

When I see someone mention words-per-minute typing speed, I think they are applying for roles that existed a generation ago and are out-of-date. In my view, the role of secretary doesn't exist in any meaningful sense today. Entry-level skills for an office job would include knowledge of stuff like S...
by market timer
Fri Aug 02, 2019 9:14 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Extreme Anxiety with Time/Money
Replies: 95
Views: 9074

Re: Extreme Anxiety with Time/Money

I think if you're an anxious type of person, outsourcing can mean that you just worry about another layer of things. It's possible you're talking about a kind of anxiety you'd benefit from talking to a doctor about, but maybe we can get at it from the money side here. What do your annual expenses a...
by market timer
Sat Jul 20, 2019 4:12 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pursued the wrong career?
Replies: 37
Views: 7165

Re: Pursued the wrong career?

I like the idea of #3; however, given your experience, you should not aim for a data scientist job. You should be looking for a job managing data scientists or analysts and solving problems in healthcare.
by market timer
Fri Jul 19, 2019 10:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bad time to enter the market?
Replies: 40
Views: 4369

Re: Bad time to enter the market?

Yes, I'll go out on a limb and say I think it is a bad time to enter the market. You haven't shared many details about your mom's financial situation (pension, savings rate, etc.), so it's not clear to me whether this $130K represents a start on the way to a larger nest egg or the majority of what s...
by market timer
Fri Jul 19, 2019 9:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: If you had $1M to invest what would you do?
Replies: 26
Views: 3155

Re: If you had $1M to invest what would you do?

This is how I have invested my 7-figure portfolio:

40% short term IG corporates
15% international stocks
15% crude oil and oil majors
10% long term bonds
10% gold
10% silver
by market timer
Fri Jul 12, 2019 10:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 4124
Views: 1176070

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

With all the press around Jeffrey Epstein, I finally decided to get around to Lolita, specifically the Audible version narrated by Jeremy Irons. It's incredible.
by market timer
Fri Jul 12, 2019 9:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What asset class is gold?
Replies: 41
Views: 3173

Re: What asset class is gold?

Agree that commodities are their own asset class. Still, it helps to understand what drives performance. For example, I own gold and oil. Gold behaves very similar to long term inflation indexed bonds (see below). Gold benefits when real interest rates decline. Oil is more highly correlated with eco...
by market timer
Sat Jul 06, 2019 10:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Job Promotion - How to Show on Resume
Replies: 40
Views: 3838

Re: Job Promotion - How to Show on Resume

I have added future job titles to my resume, along with expected starting date. I've also made up job titles and listed them along with the real title when an employer has clearly added responsibility without changing my title. As for why you might want to leave a job after getting a promotion, I th...
by market timer
Fri Jun 21, 2019 11:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lifecycle Investing - Leveraging when young
Replies: 631
Views: 46129

Re: Lifecycle Investing - Leveraging when young

The reason the authors discourage higher leverage is that it apparently gets very expensive. If I understand the process correctly then: Paying 500 bucks to "borrow" 28200 for 2 months is absurdly expensive. That's an annual interest of 500/28200x6x100%=10.6%. That doesn't even account for the fore...
by market timer
Fri Jun 14, 2019 11:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 299450

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

I take it you are not a Modern Monetary Theorist? If deficits were a problem you would have seen rates rise long ago. The fact that they have trended persistently downward means something else is going on. I've started to see this "Modern Monetary Theory" term show up in the press more often. Seems...
by market timer
Fri Jun 14, 2019 11:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it bad to look at debt (student loans) like this?
Replies: 39
Views: 3282

Re: Is it bad to look at debt (student loans) like this?

Due to the various Income Based Repayment options, I view loans as a tax on my income. I consider it unlikely that I'll ever pay off the entire balance, and have managed to avoid making a principal payment on most of my loans, in some cases for over 20 years. Based on your other posts, it sounds li...
by market timer
Thu Jun 13, 2019 7:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 299450

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

This thread reminds me of another popular strategy discussed actively on this forum 2008-2012: the Permanent Portfolio. Discussion from 2008 to 2010 (72 pages!): https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=15434 Discussion from 2010 to today: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?...
by market timer
Wed Jun 12, 2019 7:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 299450

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Speaking of term premia, the Kim-Wright model of the term premium is near an all-time low:

Image
by market timer
Tue Jun 11, 2019 7:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it bad to look at debt (student loans) like this?
Replies: 39
Views: 3282

Re: Is it bad to look at debt (student loans) like this?

Due to the various Income Based Repayment options, I view loans as a tax on my income. I consider it unlikely that I'll ever pay off the entire balance, and have managed to avoid making a principal payment on most of my loans, in some cases for over 20 years.
by market timer
Fri Jun 07, 2019 10:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 4124
Views: 1176070

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Enjoyed The Spider Network , by David Enrich, on the LIBOR manipulation scandal. Made it through 80% of Killing Commendatore , by Haruki Murakami, before putting it down. Usually a big fan of Murakami, but this novel was a chore. Enjoyed Black Edge , by Sheelah Kohatkar, on the SAC insider trading s...
by market timer
Tue Jun 04, 2019 7:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 817
Views: 100911

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

You say you don't try to predict conditions but rather move in response to them. Hypothetically, if the S&P got back to the December lows would you be increasing your 10% equity position or would you need to see something more? Definitely. I was 70% equities at the low in Dec. It's not just valuati...
by market timer
Mon Jun 03, 2019 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 817
Views: 100911

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

@Market Timer: How do you incorporate forward-looking yields in this process? What are some of the equations you use to make these decisions? About the only thing I use is the Samuelson "optional equity percentage" based on volatility, equity risk premium and RRA. But I want to hear more about your...
by market timer
Fri May 31, 2019 10:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 299450

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Here are the Boglehead principles. Please point out which ones I am violating: ... Invest with simplicity I'd say people would take most issue with the simplicity point. However, philosophically, I see no contradiction with what you are doing and Bogleheads principles--the market just hasn't yet pr...
by market timer
Fri May 31, 2019 10:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 817
Views: 100911

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Why would you buy equities when the bond market “knows something”? The view I express is through my position, not the action of buying and selling. This is something I didn't really appreciate for years. With a 10% allocation to equities, I'm still unusually conservative. The fact I moved 10% from ...
by market timer
Fri May 31, 2019 10:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 817
Views: 100911

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Why would you buy equities when the bond market “knows something”? The view I express is through my position, not the action of buying and selling. This is something I didn't really appreciate for years. With a 10% allocation to equities, I'm still unusually conservative. The fact I moved 10% from ...