Search found 6298 matches

by market timer
Sat Sep 19, 2020 10:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Coping with Megacorp rat race
Replies: 159
Views: 14450

Re: Coping with Megacorp rat race

Often, I like to detach from my role and become a scientific observer, more interested in understanding the power dynamics and the company as a system, rather than with a specific role to play. There is often little reason I need to care about the same things my employer does. AND...THIS I usually ...
by market timer
Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Coping with Megacorp rat race
Replies: 159
Views: 14450

Re: Coping with Megacorp rat race

Want to make a lot of money in the corporate world? Figure out how to be an excellent leader of people. Lots of posters in this thread are talking about their credentials, IQ, technical skills, and experience, but no mention of "EQ" or how they build and develop relationships with key stakeholders....
by market timer
Thu Sep 17, 2020 8:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Preparing for retirement in mid 30s
Replies: 302
Views: 17700

Re: Preparing for retirement in mid 30s

It is easy for a 3% withdrawal rate on $1.5M to become a 4.5% withdrawal rate on $1M--we'd just need to revisit the equity levels of 6 months ago. Importantly, earnings estimates have deteriorated since then. The entire equity rally is driven by lower real returns, i.e., lower future returns. So if ...
by market timer
Thu Sep 17, 2020 12:39 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Coping with Megacorp rat race
Replies: 159
Views: 14450

Re: Coping with Megacorp rat race

Are you sure being an excellent leader of people is the way to riches? Seems to me most people I've seen get promoted are able to work with the people ABOVE them fairly well. Being a great leader to the people below them has never appeared to be an important variable. Indeed, the reward for working...
by market timer
Thu Sep 17, 2020 12:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Coping with Megacorp rat race
Replies: 159
Views: 14450

Re: Coping with Megacorp rat race

You're describing one of the key functions of a manager as helping to deflect the stuff that shouldn't be there in the first place. Would rather see corporate cultures identify and attack the root of problems instead of hiring more middle managers to deal with their innate dysfunction. I often felt...
by market timer
Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:12 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Coping with Megacorp rat race
Replies: 159
Views: 14450

Re: Coping with Megacorp rat race

Want to make a lot of money in the corporate world? Figure out how to be an excellent leader of people. Lots of posters in this thread are talking about their credentials, IQ, technical skills, and experience, but no mention of "EQ" or how they build and develop relationships with key stakeholders....
by market timer
Thu Sep 17, 2020 7:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold continues to soar!
Replies: 252
Views: 14626

Re: Gold continues to soar!

Poster market timer has already shown that gold has been very strongly correlated with 10 year TIPS yields. Below is the price of gold vs. 10-year real yields (inverted by multiplying by -1). Clearly, gold shares strong similarities with long term inflation adjusted securities. It is helpful to thi...
by market timer
Tue Sep 15, 2020 9:19 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Coping with Megacorp rat race
Replies: 159
Views: 14450

Re: Coping with Megacorp rat race

McGilicutty wrote: Mon Sep 14, 2020 3:43 pmYour goal should be to not actually do any work, but to go from meeting to meeting during the day spouting off great-sounding ideas for others to implement.
Regardless of my job title or description, this is what my work day inevitably becomes. Even better when you can do it all via Zoom.
by market timer
Mon Sep 14, 2020 9:48 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Coping with Megacorp rat race
Replies: 159
Views: 14450

Re: Coping with Megacorp rat race

A few things that work for me: 1. Find a project of interest where I can have more or less complete autonomy. Usually this is a project that I pitch and team that I manage. I enjoy seeing my ideas take on a life of their own. 2. Know when you can afford to take it easy. Sometimes I'd work no more th...
by market timer
Tue Sep 08, 2020 4:00 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Help me choose 2 audible books!
Replies: 32
Views: 1479

Re: Help me choose 2 audible books!

A few I've enjoyed recently: Lolita , by Nabokov (read by Jeremy Irons) American Kingpin , by Bilton, about the Silk Road website (Amazon.com of drugs) Disrupted , by Lyons, about an old guy who joins a tech company The Man in the Gray Flannel Suit , by Wilson, about a WW2 vet who returns home and l...
by market timer
Sat Sep 05, 2020 8:51 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Declined 2 opportunities for advancement. Should I be trying to climb the corporate ladder or is being content okay?
Replies: 65
Views: 5759

Re: Declined 2 opportunities for advancement. Should I be trying to climb the corporate ladder or is being content okay?

Are you sure the pay increase is only 10-15k more? That sounds low to go from no direct reports to leading a large team. If that really is the case then I'd suggest staying where you are as you really like your current position. Yes, a $10-15K increase sounds too low. However, this could be an oppo...
by market timer
Wed Sep 02, 2020 9:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: March 9th, 2020 - no bid for bonds / no offer for bonds
Replies: 19
Views: 1829

Re: March 9th, 2020 - no bid for bonds / no offer for bonds

It's weird how there was a massive bond sell off immediately following a day with no offers. Did you make back your lost money during that time? Or did you cover your short on the 9th? I rode the roller coaster up and down. Wish I could have added to my short during the panic, but am fairly conserv...
by market timer
Fri Aug 28, 2020 10:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I quit high paying job?
Replies: 76
Views: 8490

Re: Should I quit high paying job?

I'd suggest:
1. Mentally check-out, be teflon
2. Do the bare minimum, work no more than 40 hours
3. Actively search for jobs
4. Get some hobbies outside work, especially exercise
by market timer
Sat Aug 22, 2020 8:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Advice to a Millennial about nest egg "Critical Mass"
Replies: 150
Views: 16816

Re: Advice to a Millennial about nest egg "Critical Mass"

While I love xkcd, thats a bit off. 2% doesn't seem like a lot, because it isn't a lot. Also 10 years is not enough time for compound interest to do much, to really see compounding you need 30+ years. If I invest $1000 into 30-year TIPS today, I'll have $900 in 30 years (inflation-adjusted). This s...
by market timer
Sat Aug 22, 2020 8:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current state of TIPS market
Replies: 41
Views: 2838

Re: Current state of TIPS market

Is the 3.6% 30 day SEC yield on Ishares Tips ETF STIP accurate? No! I calculate the average yield-to-maturity (YTM) of STIP 's holdings to be -1.33% . [*] Subtracting the fund's 0.06% expense ratio gives an estimated SEC yield of -1.39% . This looks correct, I'd just note this is a real yield (infl...
by market timer
Sat Aug 22, 2020 3:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current state of TIPS market
Replies: 41
Views: 2838

Re: Current state of TIPS market

Is the 3.6% 30 day SEC yield on Ishares Tips ETF STIP accurate? thank you It is not an accurate indication of the current yield. See the disclaimer Blackrock provides about 30-day yield: "An exceptionally high 30-Day SEC yield may be attributable to a rise in the inflation rate, which might not be ...
by market timer
Sat Aug 22, 2020 2:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: March 9th, 2020 - no bid for bonds / no offer for bonds
Replies: 19
Views: 1829

Re: March 9th, 2020 - no bid for bonds / no offer for bonds

Virus4762 wrote: Sat Aug 22, 2020 1:45 am
market timer wrote: Tue Aug 18, 2020 11:26 pm
There were no offers.
This is incorrect. There were no bids.
Not sure what you mean. Do you have a source? I was trading Treasury bond futures that day. You don't get a 12% rally without bids. That kind of move happens when nobody wants to sell and people are forced to buy.
by market timer
Sat Aug 22, 2020 12:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Advice to a Millennial about nest egg "Critical Mass"
Replies: 150
Views: 16816

Re: Advice to a Millennial about nest egg "Critical Mass"

While I love xkcd, thats a bit off. 2% doesn't seem like a lot, because it isn't a lot. Also 10 years is not enough time for compound interest to do much, to really see compounding you need 30+ years. If I invest $1000 into 30-year TIPS today, I'll have $900 in 30 years (inflation-adjusted). Instea...
by market timer
Fri Aug 21, 2020 11:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Advice to a Millennial about nest egg "Critical Mass"
Replies: 150
Views: 16816

Re: Advice to a Millennial about nest egg "Critical Mass"

redmaw wrote: Fri Aug 21, 2020 1:27 pm While I love xkcd, thats a bit off. 2% doesn't seem like a lot, because it isn't a lot. Also 10 years is not enough time for compound interest to do much, to really see compounding you need 30+ years.
If I invest $1000 into 30-year TIPS today, I'll have $900 in 30 years (inflation-adjusted).
by market timer
Wed Aug 19, 2020 11:56 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Books that changed your life
Replies: 242
Views: 22382

Re: Books that changed your life

The Most Instructive Games of Chess Ever Played , Irving Chernev The Education of a Speculator , Victor Niederhoffer Complexity: The Emerging Science at the Edge of Order and Chaos , M. Mitchell Waldrop Molecular Biology of the Cell , Alberts et al. Norwegian Wood , Haruki Murakami Lost Illusions ,...
by market timer
Wed Aug 19, 2020 9:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: March 9th, 2020 - no bid for bonds / no offer for bonds
Replies: 19
Views: 1829

Re: March 9th, 2020 - no bid for bonds / no offer for bonds

I've seen some quotes of analysts saying there was no bid for bonds on 3/9/2020 and some quotes from analysts saying there was no offer for bonds on 3/9/2020. Does anyone know which it was? [/b]There were no offers.[/b] I was short bonds at the time and it was terrifying. Ultra bond futures closed ...
by market timer
Tue Aug 18, 2020 11:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: March 9th, 2020 - no bid for bonds / no offer for bonds
Replies: 19
Views: 1829

Re: March 9th, 2020 - no bid for bonds / no offer for bonds

I've seen some quotes of analysts saying there was no bid for bonds on 3/9/2020 and some quotes from analysts saying there was no offer for bonds on 3/9/2020. Does anyone know which it was? There were no offers. I was short bonds at the time and it was terrifying. Ultra bond futures closed at 222 o...
by market timer
Mon Aug 17, 2020 10:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Advice to a Millennial about nest egg "Critical Mass"
Replies: 150
Views: 16816

Re: Advice to a Millennial about nest egg "Critical Mass"

Not sure the "magic" will continue to work for young people today... Agree, personal experience seems to rely on 40 years in which long term interest rates fell from 12.5% to 1.4%, pushing up the valuation of all assets. Next 40 years won't be anything like this. LBYM is still good advice, of cours...
by market timer
Mon Aug 17, 2020 10:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold continues to soar!
Replies: 252
Views: 14626

Re: Gold continues to soar!

Worldwide old demand, as well as targeting a profitable oil price, are the factors which determine oil supply. The treasury yield in itself has nothing to do with how much oil Saudi pumps. From the end of World War 2 until the end of Bretton Woods in 1971, an ounce of gold bought 12 barrels of oil ...
by market timer
Sat Aug 15, 2020 11:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 0.5% Rule (SWR) [Safe Withdrawal Rate]
Replies: 419
Views: 23418

Re: The 0.5% Rule (SWR)

He has a point if he plans to live forever. It is rare for any retiree to require even a 40-year plan. With real rates slightly negative, and factoring in tax, you could support a 40-year retirement with a 2% SWR completely risk free. Longer lived institutions, like university endowments, indeed hav...
by market timer
Fri Aug 14, 2020 9:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold continues to soar!
Replies: 252
Views: 14626

Re: Gold continues to soar!

Worldwide old demand, as well as targeting a profitable oil price, are the factors which determine oil supply. The treasury yield in itself has nothing to do with how much oil Saudi pumps. From the end of World War 2 until the end of Bretton Woods in 1971, an ounce of gold bought 12 barrels of oil ...
by market timer
Fri Aug 14, 2020 3:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold continues to soar!
Replies: 252
Views: 14626

Re: Gold continues to soar!

Based on my fair value model that treats gold as a long term inflation adjusted bond, gold is still catching up to the tremendous decline in long term real yields. Fair value is $2109 vs. spot price of $2068, given 30-year real interest rates of -0.48%. The decline in real interest rates has gone b...
by market timer
Thu Aug 13, 2020 11:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold continues to soar!
Replies: 252
Views: 14626

Re: Gold continues to soar!

Based on my fair value model that treats gold as a long term inflation adjusted bond, gold is still catching up to the tremendous decline in long term real yields. Fair value is $2109 vs. spot price of $2068, given 30-year real interest rates of -0.48%. The decline in real interest rates has gone b...
by market timer
Thu Aug 13, 2020 10:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold continues to soar!
Replies: 252
Views: 14626

Re: Gold continues to soar!

The problem is that gold tends to go up for a short period of time and do nothing for longer periods of time. If it drops 50%, I could wait up to a decade before recovering that loss. I'd like a good floor to prevent the long wait. Check out the charts for GLD when it dropped and look at how long i...
by market timer
Wed Aug 12, 2020 8:52 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Large pay cut for better quality of life
Replies: 82
Views: 7468

Re: Large pay cut for better quality of life

You are far ahead of where you need to be financially. Even if you take an earnings hit, you'll still be on the path to financial independence and work-optional by age 40. Might as well start to figure out what you will do now that money is not an issue. I'd go for it.
by market timer
Tue Aug 11, 2020 11:44 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Share your net worth progression
Replies: 1881
Views: 459523

Re: Share your net worth progression

1/1/09: -$210K (started working this year)
1/1/10: -$120K
1/1/11: -$35K
1/1/12: $150K
1/1/13: $300K
1/1/14: $510K
1/1/15: $670K
1/1/16: $740K
1/1/17: $1.1M
1/1/18: $1.2M
1/1/19: $1.4M
1/1/20: $1.8M
8/11/20: $2.4M

Have been FI in my mind for a while, but just now starting to feel rich.
by market timer
Fri Aug 07, 2020 11:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Margin usage in different ways.
Replies: 13
Views: 999

Re: Margin usage in different ways.

And at certain fragile times, like right now, reduce it to zero. Please explain a quantitative method for determining “fragile times”. I use something as simple as VIX > 35 as a signal to increase equity exposure. I tend to maintain a low equity exposure most of the time, but buy in crises, like Ma...
by market timer
Thu Aug 06, 2020 9:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold continues to soar!
Replies: 252
Views: 14626

Re: Gold continues to soar!

Based on my fair value model that treats gold as a long term inflation adjusted bond, gold is still catching up to the tremendous decline in long term real yields. Fair value is $2109 vs. spot price of $2068, given 30-year real interest rates of -0.48%. The decline in real interest rates has gone be...
by market timer
Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What would it take to cause a QQQ Collapse?
Replies: 60
Views: 5761

Re: What would it take to cause a QQQ Collapse?

The last decade has been something of a gold rush in bringing the physical world online. New habits have been created: how you shop, how you date, etc. New brands have been created: Uber, Tinder, etc. As with any gold rush, the people selling the tools get rich. Those tools are largely marketing (Go...
by market timer
Mon Jul 27, 2020 9:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PSA: gold
Replies: 63
Views: 5835

Re: PSA: gold

The formula I gave to value gold six months ago is holding up pretty well: P = 1800 * e ^ (-33 * r), where r is the 30-year real rate Currently, r = -0.38%, so fair value is approximately $2040/oz. Back when gold was $1200 in November 2018, real yields were at 1.3%. The model predicted a fair value...
by market timer
Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PSA: gold
Replies: 63
Views: 5835

Re: PSA: gold

The formula I gave to value gold six months ago is holding up pretty well: P = 1800 * e ^ (-33 * r), where r is the 30-year real rate Currently, r = -0.38%, so fair value is approximately $2040/oz. Back when gold was $1200 in November 2018, real yields were at 1.3%. The model predicted a fair value ...
by market timer
Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Re-Retiring Financially (SWR) After Good Year
Replies: 63
Views: 5411

Re: Re-Retiring Financially (SWR) After Good Year

This is a flawed approach. Insurance companies make money from annuities and pay large commissions, both of these you get to spend increasing your SWR. Secondly, if you don’t care about leaving inheritance to your heirs, you can spend it down to zero — insurance companies don’t model for this (they...
by market timer
Fri Jul 24, 2020 11:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 3165
Views: 547627

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

+11%

Positives
Large gains on gold and silver
Bought the equity dip in March
Shorted TSLA near its ATH recently

Negatives
Losses in crude oil and oil majors
Value + int'l stocks (my equity tilt) down YTD
by market timer
Fri Jul 24, 2020 12:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Re-Retiring Financially (SWR) After Good Year
Replies: 63
Views: 5411

Re: Re-Retiring Financially (SWR) After Good Year

Put another way, how does the portfolio know if you are retiring at the end of 2015 or 2016? It doesn't and it is one of the flaws of that approach. In theory you can adjust based on valuations (a portfolio of $1,000,000 in 2006 isn't the same as a portfolio of $1,000,000 in 2010) but that's an imp...
by market timer
Tue Jul 21, 2020 8:12 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Financial Crisis: Advice needed
Replies: 90
Views: 8067

Re: Financial Crisis: Advice needed

I'd put the student loans on the longest possible repayment plan, pay the minimum, and aim to die with a six figure balance.
by market timer
Sun Jul 19, 2020 8:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Puts and Mortgage Downpayment - Shoot my idea down
Replies: 51
Views: 2820

Re: Puts and Mortgage Downpayment - Shoot my idea down

For the reasons mentioned above, it is not a great idea to buy equities and buy puts (this is equivalent to buying a call option, see "put-call parity") with your downpayment. One outside-the-box idea potentially worth considering is shorting bonds at currently low rates to lock-in a mortgage rate a...
by market timer
Sat Jul 18, 2020 7:25 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone else love this new working from home thing?
Replies: 89
Views: 6356

Re: Anyone else love this new working from home thing?

As an introvert who likes quiet, this is paradise for me. I don't think I'll ever go back to working regularly in an office. Communication is a much greater challenge now, but something I enjoy considering as an engineering problem. How can you replace the informal aspects of office communication on...
by market timer
Sat Jul 11, 2020 6:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Were You Around During Dotcom Bubble?
Replies: 182
Views: 11478

Re: Were You Around During Dotcom Bubble?

Myspace was a thing like Facebook is now. MySpace launched in 2003, believe it or not only 7 months before Facebook. It peaked in the 2005/6 range when FB was still mostly a college thing. Man, those were the days. There was also classmates.com, launched in 1995. Conceptually, it was almost identic...
by market timer
Sat Jul 11, 2020 12:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Were You Around During Dotcom Bubble?
Replies: 182
Views: 11478

Re: Were You Around During Dotcom Bubble?

jason2459 wrote: Fri Jul 10, 2020 11:57 pmeveryone had some new website making 0 profits and spending millions on Superbowl ads
Today, a money-losing startup could spend tens or even hundreds of millions of dollars per year on Facebook and Google.
by market timer
Sat Jul 11, 2020 12:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Were You Around During Dotcom Bubble?
Replies: 182
Views: 11478

Re: Were You Around During Dotcom Bubble?

There are similarities between now and then. Unprofitable companies like Shopify and Tesla are trading at extremely high market caps, analogous to the high-flying IPOs of the late 90s. We knew back then that the internet was going to be a big deal, and that fueled much of the optimism of the time. I...
by market timer
Wed Jul 08, 2020 9:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Job offer - lateral comp
Replies: 26
Views: 1893

Re: Job offer - lateral comp

I have been told repeatedly by mgmt that the company offers a good work life balance and that there will be plenty of growth opportunities for me in company. Reading a bit between the lines, it seems like you will be in a cost center function like FP&A, Treasury, or Tax. I would realistically asses...
by market timer
Wed Jul 08, 2020 8:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Job offer - lateral comp
Replies: 26
Views: 1893

Re: Job offer - lateral comp

You haven't provided enough info, particularly around the valuation of the RSU grants. Before leaving, I'd suggest having a discussion with your manager about the upcoming RSU cliff you are facing and whether you can get refreshers in writing now. You mention lack of career growth, but at VP level,...
by market timer
Wed Jul 08, 2020 8:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Job offer - lateral comp
Replies: 26
Views: 1893

Re: Job offer - lateral comp

You haven't provided enough info, particularly around the valuation of the RSU grants. Before leaving, I'd suggest having a discussion with your manager about the upcoming RSU cliff you are facing and whether you can get refreshers in writing now. You mention lack of career growth, but at VP level, ...
by market timer
Sun Jul 05, 2020 9:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Manager vs. Direct report salary issues
Replies: 151
Views: 10419

Re: Manager vs. Direct report salary issues

Afty wrote: Sun Jul 05, 2020 9:39 pmThe best outcome is that one of them grows to replace me, and I can go do other things.
It's especially good if you keep the same role and responsibilities after having been effectively replaced :happy