Search found 6232 matches

by market timer
Tue May 26, 2020 8:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A different approach to asset allocation
Replies: 1485
Views: 706598

Re: A different approach to asset allocation

To avoid this thread getting locked, let me try to settle the debate. My strategy differed from Ayres & Nalebuff in several ways, but importantly in that I did not reset leverage back to 2x as the market declined. A market decline in excess of 50%, though uncommon, was enough to wipe out my account....
by market timer
Sun May 24, 2020 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A different approach to asset allocation
Replies: 1485
Views: 706598

Re: A different approach to asset allocation

One of the arguments made for leveraging when young, or for taking high financial risk when young generally, is that the young have more human capital. Translated into human terms, that means they have more ability to take financial catastrophe in stride because they have time to pick themselves up...
by market timer
Sat May 23, 2020 10:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A different approach to asset allocation
Replies: 1485
Views: 706598

Re: A different approach to asset allocation

MT, Building a $2mm nest egg by age 40 after being in debt in your early 30s is a tremendous accomplishment. I would be interested in hearing more details about your career path / income trajectory after getting your Econ PhD if you are willing to share. On the career side, I'd rather not get in th...
by market timer
Sat May 23, 2020 10:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A different approach to asset allocation
Replies: 1485
Views: 706598

Re: A different approach to asset allocation

FWIW, I find it’s often helpful to look beyond the assets to the liability itself - future spending. I think you do this too? David Merkel wrote a good piece a long time ago about calculating an IRR of your current assets and future saving/spending: https://alephblog.com/2008/01/26/personal-finance...
by market timer
Sat May 23, 2020 9:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A different approach to asset allocation
Replies: 1485
Views: 706598

Re: A different approach to asset allocation

PurpleArc wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 12:56 pm
For commodities, what do you own?
IAU for gold, SLV for silver, and long term crude oil futures.
by market timer
Sat May 23, 2020 8:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A different approach to asset allocation
Replies: 1485
Views: 706598

Re: A different approach to asset allocation

What's new in the life of MT? Can you give us an update? In the 13 years since this thread was started, I have never really had an investment strategy that was reliable and allowed me to sleep well. When I was in my mid/late 20s, I shot for the moon with MYR. In my early 30s, I was paying off debt ...
by market timer
Sat May 23, 2020 4:10 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The axe falls and I am prepared. What's next?
Replies: 344
Views: 24773

Re: The axe falls and I am prepared. What's next?

Getting laid off is a great way to retire. You don't have to second guess your decision, and you get a severance and unemployment benefits. I agree that you should not really look for any work at this time. If I were in your position, I'd focus on hobbies that could potential generate income, but wh...
by market timer
Sat May 23, 2020 1:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who's right about the future? Stock or Bond market?
Replies: 50
Views: 4440

Re: Who's right about the future? Stock or Bond market?

Markets are telling us growth and inflation are likely to be low for a generation. Long term real yields are as low as they have ever been. A lower discount rate makes all future cash flows worth more today: stocks, bonds, real estate, annuities, pensions, etc. All we can do is adjust expectations a...
by market timer
Sat May 09, 2020 4:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will "work from home" destroy the commercial real estate market?
Replies: 169
Views: 13060

Re: Will work from home destroy the commercial real estate market?

I am very much enjoying work-from-home. When I'm eventually asked to return to the office, I'm going to propose a pay cut in exchange for permanent WFH flexibility. If this request is not accepted, I might just quit.
by market timer
Thu May 07, 2020 9:50 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pay Sibling's Undergrad or Refinance Parent's Mortgage
Replies: 52
Views: 3150

Re: Pay Sibling's Undergrad or Refinance Parent's Mortgage

Michigan at $30K/year is a great deal, and an excellent place to study math and/or CS. Your brother can get $27K in total in Stafford Loans over four years. You and your parents should be able to cash flow the rest, assuming you all keep your jobs. I'd discuss contingency plans in advance with every...
by market timer
Tue May 05, 2020 12:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My theory about FIRE
Replies: 419
Views: 30548

Re: My theory about FIRE

Getting to financial independence at a young age makes sense as it alleviates financial worries that one might have and gives one a great sense of security. But the part I don't get is all the promising smart people (which you have to be to be able to attain FI early) that go into careers that they...
by market timer
Mon May 04, 2020 10:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why doesn’t Jim Cramer start a fund?
Replies: 26
Views: 3172

Re: Why doesn’t Jim Cramer start a fund?

He ran Cramer Berkowitz 1985-2000. This is covered in his book Confessions of a Street Addict. Seems like he enjoys the entertainment business more than money management at this stage of his life.
by market timer
Sat Apr 25, 2020 11:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Job Uncertainty is Killing Me: How to Cope???
Replies: 22
Views: 2195

Re: Job Uncertainty is Killing Me: How to Cope???

I wished our CEO would give some damn assurances and help improve morale. I don't care if they lie to our face and tell us it will be ok, I'll trick myself and just believe it because I need to. And at least, if I get fired, I know that I CAN ACT on it. But I'm stuck in between, neither here or the...
by market timer
Sat Apr 25, 2020 10:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I afford to move out of NYC and buy a house in the suburbs?
Replies: 36
Views: 3154

Re: Can I afford to move out of NYC and buy a house in the suburbs?

I worked in finance during the previous recession. Saw bonuses go to zero and entire teams laid off. You don't want to have a million-dollar mortgage in that environment. This is not just hypothetical--we are entering a global depression with unprecedented job loss. I'd suggest renting for another f...
by market timer
Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Moving out of NYC due to pandemic
Replies: 164
Views: 12698

Re: Moving out of NYC due to pandemic

It is going to be fascinating to see how NYC residents react to the pandemic. I can only imagine how inconvenient it is right now for parents of young kids on lockdown in small apartments. They will be the first to leave, I expect. But you also have the young families who stretched to buy real estat...
by market timer
Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Moving out of NYC due to pandemic
Replies: 164
Views: 12698

Re: Moving out of NYC due to pandemic

Is it possible to move closer to your parents or your wife's parents? I think the nuclear family model makes people more economically fragile than a multigenerational model. Throughout history, up until the Baby Boom, multigenerational families have lived together.
by market timer
Thu Apr 23, 2020 3:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why shouldn´t I buy oil futures now?
Replies: 92
Views: 7178

Re: Why shouldn´t I buy oil futures now?

The no-arbitrage rule is basically this: Future price <= Spot price + storage costs + cost of capital ... How do the negative prices reported in the news work into this inequality? Were those future or spot? Does it imply something about storage costs? There have been many headlines about negative ...
by market timer
Mon Apr 20, 2020 3:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does "Quantitative Easing" Lead to Higher Inflation?
Replies: 87
Views: 6001

Re: Does "Quantitative Easing" Lead to Higher Inflation?

I think it is helpful to think of QE from the perspective of a typical household. Suppose I have $100K in long term bonds paying 2% and QE results in those bonds being exchanged for $100K in cash yielding 0%. Is this inflationary? Is it going to make me spend more? No, I still need to save for retir...
by market timer
Fri Apr 17, 2020 12:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)
Replies: 781
Views: 177773

Re: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)

When in history, have long term bonds and gold been expensive at the same time? Do you believe gold to be expensive now? If so, on what basis? The Claude Erb/Cam Harvey paper on gold would put gold now at around $1,000 an ounce if I recall. I think that if we consider 1) global stocks, 2) gold, 3) ...
by market timer
Thu Apr 16, 2020 9:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's it! Commodity ETFs is snake oil! I'm out!!!
Replies: 75
Views: 7267

Re: That's it! Commodity ETFs is snake oil! I'm out!!!

Oil futures up 30% tonight...some weird pops in Boeing, Gilead and oil going on? Wait on your USO...it is capitulation anxiety perhaps? Best wishes to all. Futures are up about 4%. What you are seeing in the $6 movement (+30%) is the cost of contango. The front month contract moved from May to June...
by market timer
Tue Apr 14, 2020 12:28 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Executive pay cut request: How to respond?
Replies: 130
Views: 12925

Re: Executive pay cut request: How to respond?

softwaregeek wrote:
Tue Apr 14, 2020 12:25 am
For us, the ability to bring the prebuilt, high performance team is part of what we are paid for.
Are you not prevented from doing this by non-solicitation clauses in your contract?
by market timer
Mon Apr 13, 2020 10:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Executive pay cut request: How to respond?
Replies: 130
Views: 12925

Re: Executive pay cut request: How to respond?

It might vary by industry but I unless they were paid hourly few people I have known consistently worked just 40 hours a week. I tend to organize my schedule so that I don't need to work many hours: clear goals for my teams, clear evaluation metrics, technical guidance, pushing back on management w...
by market timer
Mon Apr 13, 2020 2:40 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Investment Advice - Potential Job Loss
Replies: 7
Views: 913

Re: Investment Advice - Potential Job Loss

Personally, I think a 3-month emergency fund is not enough for what we are about to experience. With the S&P near 2800, it's probably better to get liquid, preparing for a prolonged unemployment spell, and hope you keep your job until we get to the other side. Now is the time to think of survival, n...
by market timer
Mon Apr 13, 2020 1:42 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: FOMO Help - $1M to invest after avoiding all of the downturn
Replies: 57
Views: 5367

Re: FOMO Help - $1M to invest after avoiding all of the downturn

Invest in stocks up to the point where you no longer care about their direction.
by market timer
Sat Apr 11, 2020 9:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Executive pay cut request: How to respond?
Replies: 130
Views: 12925

Re: Executive pay cut request: How to respond?

Thank you all for the replies. It helps me to understand the different perspectives and complexities involved. I agree that asking for reduced hours is not a good idea. It is, however, the reality of work-from-home with kids that my attention is divided. I'm going to do what it takes to keep my fami...
by market timer
Sat Apr 11, 2020 7:37 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Got a windfall right now, what to do?
Replies: 4
Views: 1079

Re: Got a windfall right now, what to do?

I'm generally a fan of investing in a way that balances fear of loss vs. fear of missing out. If I knew that I had a windfall coming and was going to buy stocks with that money in a month, I'd be inclined to go ahead and buy the stocks now. Otherwise, I'd find myself hoping for a declining with fear...
by market timer
Fri Apr 10, 2020 11:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Executive pay cut request: How to respond?
Replies: 130
Views: 12925

Re: Executive pay cut request: How to respond?

It might vary by industry but I unless they were paid hourly few people I have known consistently worked just 40 hours a week. I tend to organize my schedule so that I don't need to work many hours: clear goals for my teams, clear evaluation metrics, technical guidance, pushing back on management w...
by market timer
Fri Apr 10, 2020 11:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Executive pay cut request: How to respond?
Replies: 130
Views: 12925

Re: Executive pay cut request: How to respond?

Many companies are asking executives to take pay cuts in this environment. It is likely I'll be asked to take one, so I would like to respond appropriately. My view is that a 25% pay cut is reasonable due to lower productivity when working from home. I'm happy to agree to that with the understandin...
by market timer
Fri Apr 10, 2020 11:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Executive pay cut request: How to respond?
Replies: 130
Views: 12925

Re: Executive pay cut request: How to respond?

EddyB wrote:
Fri Apr 10, 2020 11:12 pm
market timer wrote:
Fri Apr 10, 2020 10:35 pm
Normchad wrote:
Fri Apr 10, 2020 10:33 pm
Something I've never understood is, why do companies ever give severance?
In my case, the severance is a contractual obligation.
Does the same contract give you a basis to claim constructive termination for a reduction in pay or hours?
I'm not sure. Would need a lawyer to know my rights.
by market timer
Fri Apr 10, 2020 11:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Executive pay cut request: How to respond?
Replies: 130
Views: 12925

Re: Executive pay cut request: How to respond?

Many companies are asking executives to take pay cuts in this environment. It is likely I'll be asked to take one, so I would like to respond appropriately. My view is that a 25% pay cut is reasonable due to lower productivity when working from home. I'm happy to agree to that with the understandin...
by market timer
Fri Apr 10, 2020 11:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Executive pay cut request: How to respond?
Replies: 130
Views: 12925

Re: Executive pay cut request: How to respond?

fatFIRE wrote:
Fri Apr 10, 2020 10:53 pm
You're being paid >$1mil a year.
My target compensation is actually $700K, but it's mostly variable. I'm assuming pay will fall far short of target due to the economy. Could easily end up around $200K this year after pay cuts.
by market timer
Fri Apr 10, 2020 10:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Executive pay cut request: How to respond?
Replies: 130
Views: 12925

Re: Executive pay cut request: How to respond?

Normchad wrote:
Fri Apr 10, 2020 10:33 pm
Something I've never understood is, why do companies ever give severance?
In my case, the severance is a contractual obligation.
by market timer
Fri Apr 10, 2020 10:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Executive pay cut request: How to respond?
Replies: 130
Views: 12925

Executive pay cut request: How to respond?

Many companies are asking executives to take pay cuts in this environment. It is likely I'll be asked to take one, so I would like to respond appropriately. My view is that a 25% pay cut is reasonable due to lower productivity when working from home. I'm happy to agree to that with the understanding...
by market timer
Thu Apr 09, 2020 4:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nassim Taleb-Advised Universa Tail Fund Returned 3,600% in March
Replies: 66
Views: 6252

Re: Nassim Taleb-Advised Universa Tail Fund Returned 3,600% in March

Wonder how easy it would be for an ordinary investor to incorporate this into their portfolio e.g 97% stocks/ bonds and 3% insurance/ options like the article says? My guess is it would be too difficult/ time consuming, unfortunately can't the the universa fund or some kind of etf/ index? A volatil...
by market timer
Thu Apr 09, 2020 3:48 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: list of current interesting financial "dislocations"/oddities
Replies: 5
Views: 635

Re: list of current interesting financial "dislocations"/oddities

Comex gold futures (based in Chicago) are trading at a $50/oz premium vs. the London spot price: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-07/gold-rallies-spread-balloons-as-investors-charge-into-bullion Usually, this would be arbitraged immediately, but COVID has led refiners to shut down, an...
by market timer
Wed Apr 08, 2020 9:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2955
Views: 526460

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Down 11%

Current allocation
US stocks (mostly SCV and REITs): 45%
Int'l stocks: 27%
Precious metals: 12%
Oil & oil majors: 12%
Long term Treasuries: 3%
by market timer
Tue Apr 07, 2020 4:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone still buying-and-holding commodities?
Replies: 13
Views: 878

Re: Anyone still buying-and-holding commodities?

Ultimately, I think they will discover their debt capacity in this downturn, at which point commodities will be far more expensive. How so? If at all this would reduce consumption and cause further downward pressure on commodity prices. People don't need to buy even 1/2 the stuff they have been buy...
by market timer
Fri Apr 03, 2020 11:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone still buying-and-holding commodities?
Replies: 13
Views: 878

Re: Anyone still buying-and-holding commodities?

Yes, I have a 37% allocation to commodities: 22% precious metals and 15% oil. Gold has been holding up quite well, but oil is clearly dragging down performance. I use long-dated futures, which are far less volatile than spot prices. Governments around the world are testing their ability to run defic...
by market timer
Fri Apr 03, 2020 3:52 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are your personal expenses down during stay home and shelter?
Replies: 167
Views: 9238

Re: Are your personal expenses down during stay home and shelter?

I am saving around $2500/month due to zero travel, dining out, and beer.
by market timer
Fri Apr 03, 2020 1:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why shouldn´t I buy oil futures now?
Replies: 92
Views: 7178

Re: Why shouldn´t I buy oil futures now?

As for who would sell futures at a price below spot, I suspect it is oil producers who would like to lock in a guaranteed ROI. Some projects require massive investments in production, e.g., the average offshore oil rig costs $650M, and come with a known breakeven price per barrel. If an energy comp...
by market timer
Fri Apr 03, 2020 12:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why shouldn´t I buy oil futures now?
Replies: 92
Views: 7178

Re: Why shouldn´t I buy oil futures now?

Under no-arbitrage theory, how come it’s an inequality? If the current price of oil plus storage and cost of capital was bigger than the futures price, who would short futures then? Certainly not the entities that are storing it since they’re locking in a loss. Wouldn’t entities that store oil sell...
by market timer
Thu Apr 02, 2020 10:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why shouldn´t I buy oil futures now?
Replies: 92
Views: 7178

Re: Why shouldn´t I buy oil futures now?

They’re solidly in contango. Meaning that everyone, just like you, expects the price to go up in the future. Nope. Futures follow the "no-arbitrage" rule of pricing. Thus futures do not indicate where the price will be in the future. It means that storage costs are high. To the OP, before you start...
by market timer
Thu Apr 02, 2020 10:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REITs are in free fall..
Replies: 19
Views: 3620

Re: REITs are in free fall..

I backed up the truck on mREITs yesterday: AGNC, NLY, STWD, BXMT. Would you consider mREITs or any other individual REITs? Are these purely speculative or possible long term hold? Yes, I recently bought individual mREITs (AGNC, NLY, STWD, BXMT) and equity REITs in the heath care sector (VTR, WELL)....
by market timer
Sun Mar 29, 2020 9:06 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What will you do first, once COVID pandemic is over?
Replies: 271
Views: 17133

Re: What will you do first, once COVID pandemic is over?

My life during this pandemic is ideal. I'm surrounded by my family with hardly any work to do. Our expenses are extremely low. I don't really want to return to the way things used to be. Perhaps the only thing I'm missing is alcohol. I've been a daily drinker for over 20 years, and have temporarily ...
by market timer
Sun Mar 29, 2020 12:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Book suggestions for a 16 year old
Replies: 47
Views: 2156

Re: Book suggestions for a 16 year old

Probably the best thing you can do to ensure future financial success at age 16 is to get a high SAT score, so I'd recommend studying for that.
by market timer
Sat Mar 28, 2020 11:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: UPDATE: 50% paycut after starting new job
Replies: 53
Views: 6845

Re: 50% paycut after starting new job

You might be eligible for unemployment benefits or severance if you decline to accept the paycut.
by market timer
Sat Mar 28, 2020 2:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4915
Views: 425331

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

More leveraged ETF's are close to liquidating in the mREIT space: https://catalyst-insights.com/the-virus-infecting-mlps/ mREITs were an absolute blood bath today, some down almost 50%. The news is it was due to forced liquidations by a run on the leveraged ETF's above. It makes sense now the huge ...
by market timer
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand the case for EE bonds
Replies: 500
Views: 52740

Re: I don't understand the case for EE bonds

I understand that, mt. I just don't believe it likely. Incredible reversal in inflation breakevens since this post. 10-year breakevens were at 0.5% on March 19th, now 1.25%. Even larger moves in the long end. It's possible the "money printer goes brrr" meme has longer lasting economic implications ...
by market timer
Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What have you learned from this situation that you will take action on?
Replies: 158
Views: 14387

Re: What have you learned from this situation that you will take action on?

Staying home with my wife and kids all day, I'm realizing how much family time I have missed by working. I'm also starting to realize that I was burnt out and didn't very much like my colleagues. So now I am not sure if I will ever return to work again. A severance package may be just what the docto...
by market timer
Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:29 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buying expensive things after the market crash
Replies: 39
Views: 4979

Re: Buying expensive things after the market crash

I am going into survival mode: -What happens if I lose my job? -What would our budget look like if I take the kids out of private school? -How much could I spend per year from my portfolio if stocks drop another 30-50%? -What would our health insurance coverage look like if we had to rely on my wife...