Search found 6060 matches

by market timer
Wed May 22, 2019 8:26 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: $400,000 gift to stepdaughter
Replies: 76
Views: 8533

Re: $400,000 gift to stepdaughter

Among the well-off families I know, giving daughters $400K for wedding + downpayment on first house is pretty common. I'd suggest a monthly stipend while she is young and single, then letting her know you'll take care of wedding expenses down the road and provide some help with the first house. A tr...
by market timer
Wed May 22, 2019 7:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any option traders?
Replies: 40
Views: 2586

Re: Any option traders?

Image
by market timer
Tue May 21, 2019 8:11 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I encourage my kids to work in high school/college?
Replies: 168
Views: 8218

Re: Should I encourage my kids to work in high school/college?

Ideally, the kids will find high school work that develops skills they'll use in their careers. I'd be happy if my kids, when they reach HS age, end up working in a university research lab or doing freelance work like coding or tutoring.
by market timer
Fri May 17, 2019 8:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Why do plumbers get paid so well?
Replies: 84
Views: 6147

Re: Why do plumbers get paid so well?

Far too many people are going to college instead of into trades. Not many parents want their kids to become plumbers.
by market timer
Wed May 15, 2019 7:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 763
Views: 72211

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

If the global monetary system fails, economic growth will plummet along with demand for oil. The last time there was a breakdown of western monetary systems, 1971, it was followed by a period of skyrocketing commodity prices and slowing economic growth. It's not an investment outlook, just somethin...
by market timer
Wed May 15, 2019 8:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 763
Views: 72211

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

With my long run asset allocation, I try to achieve a feeling of indifference with respect to price movements. Then what is your rationale for holding 30% in gold + precious metals (which I imagine could be volatile) ? I have 15% in precious metals and another 15% in long-dated oil futures and oil ...
by market timer
Tue May 14, 2019 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 763
Views: 72211

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Out of most of the QQQ short at ~179 today Why ? What, in your perception, changed ? With my long run asset allocation, I try to achieve a feeling of indifference with respect to price movements. This doesn't necessarily mean a 100% cash allocation. I could own some equities and not care about pric...
by market timer
Mon May 13, 2019 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 763
Views: 72211

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Out of most of the QQQ short at ~179 today. Added a small position (8%) to int'l equities. Used the rally in 5-year Treasuries (to under 2.2% yield) to hedge duration on my investment grade bond fund. New allocation: 10% gold 5% silver 15% crude oil and oil majors 10% long term bonds -8% US equities...
by market timer
Sat May 04, 2019 10:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: College/life prep for young kids
Replies: 79
Views: 6007

Re: College/life prep for young kids

Perhaps more important is what my children did since they are in their twenties. I don't recall them using any guidance counselors. Mostly they did what their peers and friends did. That speaks to sending your children to a decent public school where most of the children go on to college for whatev...
by market timer
Fri May 03, 2019 11:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Rotational Program at MegaCorp for college grad hires
Replies: 40
Views: 2198

Re: Rotational Program at MegaCorp for college grad hires

My son was hired at a Megacorp last year into a 2 year rotational program as a new college grad. He loved his first rotation, and his hiring manager would love for him to stay, but the rotation HR program manager said the program does not allow it. Hiring managers often use HR as an excuse for outc...
by market timer
Thu May 02, 2019 11:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Has anyone down-shifted in their career?
Replies: 59
Views: 6526

Re: Has anyone down-shifted in their career?

Great thread. I'm about to get another team to manage ( total directs: from 4 to ~9 or 10) and I'm not enthused. No title change. I've had to ask my manager to consider asking the VP for more comp (RSU's...or something considering the change...). I'd love to coast the next 10 years. Pesky corp poli...
by market timer
Wed May 01, 2019 9:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Has anyone down-shifted in their career?
Replies: 59
Views: 6526

Re: Has anyone down-shifted in their career?

Sounds like the problem is the pressure you put on yourself, not necessarily the demands of the job. If you establish some boundaries, and get better at saying "no" (or delegating), you should be able to achieve everything you want in your current role. I'm in a very similar situation, and the main ...
by market timer
Mon Apr 29, 2019 8:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 763
Views: 72211

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

MT put the short in at QQQ=185 and its currently at ~191 so only 3% down. I doubt MT would be perturbed by that. MT mentioned this position is largely a hedge so I guess the market going up makes him more secure in his job remuneration. All true and QQQs are down ~1% after hours (at 189.4) thanks t...
by market timer
Mon Apr 29, 2019 8:33 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Downshift ("Barista FI") while consulting and raising kids? [Switzerland]
Replies: 77
Views: 5645

Re: Downshift ("Barista FI") while consulting and raising kids? [Switzerland]

We're in a similar situation and I like the idea of Barista FI. However, I would not rely on a 4% withdrawal rate for such a long horizon, given current valuations. I'd suggest starting at 3%. What's unclear to me is whether you have any pension income you can rely on after you stop earning income a...
by market timer
Sun Apr 28, 2019 7:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why buy period certain annuity?
Replies: 13
Views: 1072

Re: Why buy period certain annuity?

I have considered period certain annuities as a way to defer taxes from high income years (say, age 40) to retirement (say, age 60). As I understand, a period certain annuity with deferred income would benefit from tax-deferred compounding of interest (albeit not at very high rates today). Additiona...
by market timer
Fri Apr 26, 2019 8:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Whats the Point of Climbing the Corporate Ladder?
Replies: 164
Views: 16831

Re: Whats the Point of Climbing the Corporate Ladder?

Having moved several rungs up the ladder in my career, I can say that the higher I am on the totem pole, the better I feel the job suits my abilities and interests. I'm terrible at execution and have ADD that makes me very inefficient at doing tasks, but I'm good at high level strategy and coming up...
by market timer
Thu Apr 25, 2019 8:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Investment advice for $800,000 age 62
Replies: 24
Views: 3206

Re: Investment advice for $800,000 age 62

I'd look into a deferred income annuity that starts in 5 years. I haven't requested a quote, but roughly you should be able to get around $30K/year inflation adjusted without stock market risk for $600K.
by market timer
Tue Apr 23, 2019 8:48 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: At what age did you buy your first first class airplane ticket?
Replies: 112
Views: 4422

Re: At what age did you buy your first first class airplane ticket?

I'll pay for int'l biz class for myself or a companion if I'm flying on the company dime. If I'm traveling with my family of 4, we'll fly economy, potentially with a stopover half-way on long-haul flights. That's been my policy since my mid 30s, when I first hit $1M.
by market timer
Mon Apr 22, 2019 8:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timers thread
Replies: 178
Views: 10682

Re: Market timers thread

The far more pessimistic scenario for me (from an asset pricing perspective) involves fiscal imbalances reaching a breaking point, rising populism leading to meaningful policy changes, and inflation. The economy is so leveraged today that a return to moderately high inflation and interest rates wou...
by market timer
Fri Apr 19, 2019 11:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timers thread
Replies: 178
Views: 10682

Re: Market timers thread

anoop wrote:
Fri Apr 19, 2019 11:29 pm
There are so many imbalances in every area of the economy now, it's like cancer patient taking (and cannot function without) alternate chemo and transfusions.
I'm an adherent of Herbert Stein's Law (father of Ben): "If something cannot go on forever, it will stop."
by market timer
Fri Apr 19, 2019 11:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timers thread
Replies: 178
Views: 10682

Re: Market timers thread

That said, I don’t think a recession or even a correction is imminent mainly because that is what CalculatedRisk writes (no recession, he avoids talking about stocks) and he has been accurate so far. If we have a recession in the next year or two, my guess is it will look like the 2001 recession. T...
by market timer
Thu Apr 18, 2019 9:06 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Job Offer Evaluation - FANG
Replies: 100
Views: 9727

Re: Job Offer Evaluation - FANG

As I understand, Amazon offers spousal employment assistance and will even buy your house from you if you can't find a buyer in a reasonable amount of time.
by market timer
Thu Apr 18, 2019 8:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 763
Views: 72211

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

5. React more than you predict. Wait for fat pitches when opportunity is obvious. Know the limitations of your ability to predict something as complex as asset price movements. Appreciate the disruptive potential of technology and politics. Aren't you predicting now that market will go down? If it ...
by market timer
Thu Apr 18, 2019 7:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 763
Views: 72211

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

5. React more than you predict. Wait for fat pitches when opportunity is obvious. Know the limitations of your ability to predict something as complex as asset price movements. Appreciate the disruptive potential of technology and politics. Aren't you predicting now that market will go down? If it ...
by market timer
Wed Apr 17, 2019 7:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 763
Views: 72211

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Do you seriously expect to outperform on a risk adjusted basis, after taking into account taxes, trading costs, and your time? My goal is not to outperform the market on a risk adjusted basis. I would characterize my strategy as the outcome of the following principles: 1. Work backwards from the en...
by market timer
Wed Apr 17, 2019 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 763
Views: 72211

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

I like commodities as a hedge against central banks losing control. What's your take on CCFs? Vanguard's new offering? I've never seen a CCF I've liked. The fundamental problem with CCFs is that they have to roll contracts regularly (typically monthly), so if the fund has any size, there are large ...
by market timer
Wed Apr 17, 2019 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 763
Views: 72211

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Edit: Put on the short quite recently, QQQ at 185. Why not use the inverse QQQ ETF ? Do you buy physical silver or the ETF? Inverse QQQ has the same long term tracking issues as leveraged ETFs, since exposure is reset daily. For silver, I use SLV. Not a huge fan of the 0.5% expense ratio, but bette...
by market timer
Tue Apr 16, 2019 11:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 763
Views: 72211

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Made some trades: 1. Covered my 5-year Treasury short that was hedging investment grade bond duration (initiated when the 5-year was at 2.24%, now 2.41%). The Treasury curve is no longer significantly inverted. The hedge gained 0.8% on $460K notional exposure. 2. Bought a 5% position in silver that ...
by market timer
Tue Apr 16, 2019 11:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 763
Views: 72211

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Markettimer, if the market continues to grind upward for the next 2 or 3 years where will you stop yourself out? If you are playing without a stop you are letting yourself in for unlimited losses on your 20% short since historically the market marches up. At what level did you put on your short? Th...
by market timer
Tue Apr 16, 2019 6:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bogleheads, why won't anyone hire me?
Replies: 194
Views: 17703

Re: Bogleheads, why won't anyone hire me?

I do not know what to do anymore. Due to my hustle, I have 100k in a vanguard account, own a house in which roommates pay the mortgage, 15k in my bank account, however it would be nice to actually get a career now and enjoy my life. I could be way off-base in my assessment--have only skimmed the th...
by market timer
Tue Apr 16, 2019 12:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 763
Views: 72211

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

In fact, I am now short equities with 20% of my portfolio. My income is correlated with equity prices, so I justified this to myself as a hedge against my income declining. and how have you taken out this short position ? Short futures on the Nasdaq 100 And what in mind do you have as exit criteria...
by market timer
Mon Apr 15, 2019 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 763
Views: 72211

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

What is the strike, what is the date, what did you pay for this privilege? You are thinking of options. Futures have no strike or premium. The expiration date is mid-June, but I expect to roll this position for a few quarters. The return is the difference between LIBOR and the Nasdaq. If the Nasdaq...
by market timer
Mon Apr 15, 2019 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 763
Views: 72211

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

gmaynardkrebs wrote:
Mon Apr 15, 2019 6:02 am
Naked short?
Yes. At 20%, it is not a huge position. I don't anticipate going much higher than that.
by market timer
Mon Apr 15, 2019 3:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 763
Views: 72211

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Dudley wrote:
Mon Apr 15, 2019 2:55 am
market timer wrote:
Sun Apr 14, 2019 10:37 pm
In fact, I am now short equities with 20% of my portfolio. My income is correlated with equity prices, so I justified this to myself as a hedge against my income declining.
and how have you taken out this short position ?
Short futures on the Nasdaq 100
by market timer
Mon Apr 15, 2019 2:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 763
Views: 72211

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

In fact, I am now short equities with 20% of my portfolio. My income is correlated with equity prices, so I justified this to myself as a hedge against my income declining. Market Timer, In Sept last year you gave your portfolio as : 20% gold 15% crude oil (via long-dated futures) 15% emerging mark...
by market timer
Mon Apr 15, 2019 2:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 763
Views: 72211

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

In fact, I am now short equities with 20% of my portfolio. My income is correlated with equity prices, so I justified this to myself as a hedge against my income declining. Market Timer, In Sept last year you gave your portfolio as : 20% gold 15% crude oil (via long-dated futures) 15% emerging mark...
by market timer
Sun Apr 14, 2019 10:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 763
Views: 72211

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

I wonder why all the people that are convinced we are about to crash any day now, only suggest trimming equity allocation, why not do as you suggest and short the market? In fact, I am now short equities with 20% of my portfolio. My income is correlated with equity prices, so I justified this to my...
by market timer
Thu Apr 11, 2019 8:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Good 3rd party to provide a put option and security backed loan?
Replies: 6
Views: 302

Re: Good 3rd party to provide a put option and security backed loan?

Have you checked whether the company has an employee policy that prohibits hedging company stock?
by market timer
Sun Apr 07, 2019 4:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 763
Views: 72211

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

I am skeptical of any "logic-based strategy" when it comes to timing long term cycles. Ultimately, I think we need to look at valuations and our own circumstances to decide when enough is enough. That's all I have done. "enough is enough" is meant with permanency? As in, "that's it, I've had enough...
by market timer
Sun Apr 07, 2019 12:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 763
Views: 72211

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

everything is elevated. Is it because of the fed's balance sheet being 4x what it was prior to the recession? I suppose it could just be high liquidity, but then, why isn't GDP and inflation in line? I'm scratching my head on current valuations, but how many people really knew about the underlying ...
by market timer
Sun Apr 07, 2019 12:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 763
Views: 72211

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

What’s not rewarded here is flawed logic. What’s even worse is not even trying to implement a logic-based strategy, but being content to slosh your portfolio back and forth between cash and equities based on little more than tea leaves and feelings. Unless you are a top financial researcher, you do...
by market timer
Sat Apr 06, 2019 10:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Hit your number, retire and boom a correction?
Replies: 67
Views: 8136

Re: Hit your number, retire and boom a correction?

One option is to cut back on spending if there is a downturn. Another is to buy an annuity and not worry about a downturn or outliving your money.
by market timer
Thu Apr 04, 2019 8:26 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Dead soon...Where to Invest?
Replies: 19
Views: 4313

Re: Dead soon...Where to Invest?

I'd probably put $400K into an annuity for the wife and keep another $200K in a money market account.
by market timer
Tue Apr 02, 2019 8:56 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Making the plunge into 529s
Replies: 26
Views: 2673

Re: Making the plunge into 529s

Darth Xanadu wrote:
Mon Apr 01, 2019 11:12 pm
What grades are primary, secondary, and tertiary schools?
Primary: Age 5-11
Secondary: Age 12-18
Tertiary: 18+
by market timer
Mon Apr 01, 2019 8:26 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Making the plunge into 529s
Replies: 26
Views: 2673

Re: Making the plunge into 529s

I forgot, are you pretty much set when it comes to saving for retirement? Usually when you have young kids, you want to be prioritizing your own retirement first. We had kids late, so my main expense in retirement is going to be my kids' educations (potentially boarding school and college). Aside f...
by market timer
Sun Mar 31, 2019 9:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 763
Views: 72211

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

In another thread you said 2.25M in Tips would have you step away from investing -- your 60% of the way there. That reply was specific to a question on how much is needed to live on $50K/year for life starting at age 40. Unfortunately, I spend more than that today, and am not opposed to taking on m...
by market timer
Sun Mar 31, 2019 9:39 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Making the plunge into 529s
Replies: 26
Views: 2673

Re: Making the plunge into 529s

Note that, if you or your spouse have any siblings with kids, you could, in theory, set up the third 529 with your niece or nephew as the beneficiary and put the $50K there now, then change the beneficiary to one of your kids at any point without incurring gift tax implications because your kids an...
by market timer
Sun Mar 31, 2019 9:11 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Making the plunge into 529s
Replies: 26
Views: 2673

Re: Making the plunge into 529s

And yes, you can open a 529 account with you as the beneficiary and fund it, then later on switch the beneficiary to one of your kids. You can also open a 529 in your spouse's name (if you have one) so as to have two additional accounts to fund. Thanks for the info. Does changing beneficiaries trig...
by market timer
Sun Mar 31, 2019 8:18 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Making the plunge into 529s
Replies: 26
Views: 2673

Re: Making the plunge into 529s

And yes, you can open a 529 account with you as the beneficiary and fund it, then later on switch the beneficiary to one of your kids. You can also open a 529 in your spouse's name (if you have one) so as to have two additional accounts to fund. Thanks for the info. Does changing beneficiaries trig...
by market timer
Sun Mar 31, 2019 1:55 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Making the plunge into 529s
Replies: 26
Views: 2673

Making the plunge into 529s

I'm considering contributing heavily to 529 plans for my two young kids. Wanted to get the input from the gurus here before making the plunge. I've never used a 529 before, but believe our family would benefit. The current plan is to spend a minimum of $100K/kid on tuition during primary school. It'...