Search found 86 matches

by heart_in_san_francisco
Sun Dec 01, 2019 1:08 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I’m done with index funds
Replies: 229
Views: 29189

Re: I’m done with index funds

OP, it appears the consensus here is overwhelmingly against your proposed strategy. I'm curious if your mind has been swayed by the responses or if you still plan to go ahead with your strategy? I'm also interested in OP's updated decision process, if it's changed. I can't get over the 70bp per yea...
by heart_in_san_francisco
Sat Nov 30, 2019 11:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I’m done with index funds
Replies: 229
Views: 29189

Re: I’m done with index funds

deleted
by heart_in_san_francisco
Sat Nov 30, 2019 11:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I’m done with index funds
Replies: 229
Views: 29189

Re: I’m done with index funds

amazes me that an intellignet HNW / UHNW investor woudl consider this for TLH. The benefit is small and the risk of being taken advantage of, is high. Not worth it. i bet the investor can just take his dividends in cash and live off it later in life if needed, esp since they are adding 500k per yea...
by heart_in_san_francisco
Sat Nov 30, 2019 11:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I’m done with index funds
Replies: 229
Views: 29189

Re: I’m done with index funds

After doing quite a lot of research, I’ve decided to stop using low-cost index funds and switch to a separately managed account. This goes against the Bogleheads investment philosophy and it took me a long time to admit it was the right thing to do for me as I was genuinely convinced and passionate...
by heart_in_san_francisco
Sat Nov 30, 2019 4:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, another International vs Domestic Thread
Replies: 212
Views: 9797

Re: Yes, another International vs Domestic Thread

A couple concerns I haven't seen fully addressed: Will a world market cap fund like VTWAX capture most of the upside of foreign stocks becoming a larger fraction of global market cap? Does global diversification outweigh the performance drag of foreign taxes and currency swaps? If both of these are ...
by heart_in_san_francisco
Sat Nov 30, 2019 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, another International vs Domestic Thread
Replies: 212
Views: 9797

Re: Yes, another International vs Domestic Thread

Let me try to summarize:

For international (ex-US) investing:
1. It reduces your portfolio risk per unit of reward for reasons A, B, and C.
Against:
1. It increases your portfolio risk per unit of reward for reasons X, Y, and Z.

Is this roughly accurate?
by heart_in_san_francisco
Sat Nov 30, 2019 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, another International vs Domestic Thread
Replies: 212
Views: 9797

Re: Yes, another International vs Domestic Thread

Is anyone here is brave enough take their convictions a step further and buy RWUI - Direxion FTSE Russell US Over International? At 150% Long US / 50% Short International, it's not your traditional leveraged ETF. You start with 100% US returns and receive an additional premium return whenever US ou...
by heart_in_san_francisco
Sat Nov 30, 2019 11:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, another International vs Domestic Thread
Replies: 212
Views: 9797

Re: Yes, another International vs Domestic Thread

On a related subject, I do not believe that the global weight proponents are doing new investors a favor by insinuating that Bogle and Buffet are out of touch. How about showing some respect for these two good men who have accomplished more and have done more good for investors than you New Age Enl...
by heart_in_san_francisco
Sat Nov 30, 2019 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, another International vs Domestic Thread
Replies: 212
Views: 9797

Re: Yes, another International vs Domestic Thread

I'm a big believer in inexpensive *gasp* ACTIVE MANAGEMENT for international stocks. I think for some very real reasons, international index funds will CONTINUE to underperform the U.S. over the long-haul, at least the long-haul of the rest of my life, with fleeting periods of outperformance like w...
by heart_in_san_francisco
Sat Nov 30, 2019 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, another International vs Domestic Thread
Replies: 212
Views: 9797

Re: Yes, another International vs Domestic Thread

I think that Total world stocks (VT) and Total world bonds (BNDW) should be the starting point for asset allocation, as in “ Don't look for the needle in the haystack. Just buy the haystack! ” (John Bogle). But, there are various issues (such as the fact that two investors in different countries do...
by heart_in_san_francisco
Sat Nov 30, 2019 1:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, another International vs Domestic Thread
Replies: 212
Views: 9797

Re: Yes, another International vs Domestic Thread

A few reasons I'm currently 100% US equities (VOO, specifically): 1. Part of the reason I'm investing is to hedge against domestic inflation, and US equities play that role better than foreign equities. 2. Every country has a known home bias. Unlike other market biases, I'm not convinced this is eff...
by heart_in_san_francisco
Thu Nov 28, 2019 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, another International vs Domestic Thread
Replies: 212
Views: 9797

Re: Yes, another International vs Domestic Thread

There is no such thing as "international". The US is one country, and there are many others. For instance, in VT, the US is one of 43 countries. So if I were to follow your logic correctly, you should invest in the country that has the highest returns over time. That's South Africa: https://enginee...
by heart_in_san_francisco
Thu Nov 28, 2019 10:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, another International vs Domestic Thread
Replies: 212
Views: 9797

Re: Yes, another International vs Domestic Thread

Institutional investors know this; if it is full-proof then it should quickly be priced out of existence. That does not mean it can't continue, but the expectation is that it will not because it is priced in (US valuations are higher than ex-US). That's the theory, but remember that it's only a the...
by heart_in_san_francisco
Thu Nov 28, 2019 12:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Optimal asset allocation strategies for retirement & saving
Replies: 45
Views: 8030

Re: Optimal asset allocation strategies for retirement & saving

Very interesting results. Thank you for all the work you put in. My model makes several generous assumptions when it comes to leverage (yearly re-leverage, wealth can't go below zero, no margin calls), these results are an approximation. These are generous assumptions indeed. I wouldn't recommend an...
by heart_in_san_francisco
Wed Nov 27, 2019 8:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Doller Cost Averaging vs Asset Allocation
Replies: 67
Views: 4190

Re: Doller Cost Averaging vs Asset Allocation

I don’t understand the argument that since lump sum is “only” better 2/3 of the time, DCA can be a good idea. Imagine you had a serious illness and the doctor said one treatment works 2/3 of the time and the other treatment works 1/3 of the time. It would be a no brainer which treatment to choose. S...
by heart_in_san_francisco
Wed Nov 27, 2019 6:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Siegel: 'stocks are overvalued on a long-term basis, but bonds are enormously overvalued on a long-term basis'
Replies: 77
Views: 9334

Re: Siegel: 'stocks are overvalued on a long-term basis, but bonds are enormously overvalued on a long-term basis'

This article also seems to say small caps do not outperform. "...Siegel compared the situation to the 1990s, when small stocks were believed to outperform in the long term. After further investigation, he found that the small stock premiums from 1929 to the 1990s were mainly due to a 9-year period ...
by heart_in_san_francisco
Sun Nov 24, 2019 8:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Windfall of $3m at market high - need advice on plan.
Replies: 27
Views: 4634

Re: Windfall of $3m at market high - need advice on plan.

livesoft wrote:
Sun Nov 24, 2019 8:47 pm
This is the REAL definitive thread on DCA:
The Final, Definitive Thread on Dollar-Cost Averaging
That is solid gold. :mrgreen:
by heart_in_san_francisco
Sun Nov 24, 2019 8:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Windfall of $3m at market high - need advice on plan.
Replies: 27
Views: 4634

Re: Windfall of $3m at market high - need advice on plan.

Here’s the definitive thread on DCA. Over 500 replies. Enjoy. :D

viewtopic.php?t=83767
by heart_in_san_francisco
Sun Nov 24, 2019 8:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Windfall of $3m at market high - need advice on plan.
Replies: 27
Views: 4634

Re: Windfall of $3m at market high - need advice on plan.

Oh, congrats on the windfall by the way. Take some time off if you can. Think about your future. Whether you DCA or not isn’t a huge deal, even if it’s not academically optimal, you could do much worse, and you’re clearly being careful and thoughtful with the windfall which is the most important thi...
by heart_in_san_francisco
Sun Nov 24, 2019 8:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Windfall of $3m at market high - need advice on plan.
Replies: 27
Views: 4634

Re: Windfall of $3m at market high - need advice on plan.

If your windfall was all in $VTSAX would you sell it all and DCA back in? If so, go ahead and DCA. Otherwise you’re committing the fallacy of old money and new money as separate buckets. It is a good idea to take some time to figure out what AA you can handle. Instead of DCA, why not start with a co...
by heart_in_san_francisco
Fri Nov 22, 2019 10:55 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Dollar Cost Averaging or: how I learned to stop worrying and love the Lump Sum
Replies: 38
Views: 3409

Re: Dollar Cost Averaging or: how I learned to stop worrying and love the Lump Sum

Thesaints wrote:
Thu Nov 21, 2019 5:40 pm
EnjoyIt wrote:
Thu Nov 21, 2019 5:32 pm
I think DCA is being uncomfortable with one’s chosen asset allocation and delaying getting there with DCA.

Also DCA during massive inflation maximizes losses.
Wrong on both counts, but it is hard math.
Please educate me. That’s why I’m here :)
by heart_in_san_francisco
Thu Nov 21, 2019 8:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Talk Me Off the Active Investing Ledge!
Replies: 58
Views: 3997

Re: Talk Me Off the Active Investing Ledge!

this is called recency bias. Read Jack Bogle's "The Little Book of Commonsense Investing", pay particularly close attention to the chapter 9 titled, "Yesterday's Winners, Tomorrow's Losers". You'll see that the first shall be the last and the last shall be the first. Is it possible to inverse this ...
by heart_in_san_francisco
Thu Nov 21, 2019 3:40 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Dollar Cost Averaging or: how I learned to stop worrying and love the Lump Sum
Replies: 38
Views: 3409

Re: Dollar Cost Averaging or: how I learned to stop worrying and love the Lump Sum

DCA is and always will be a HEDGING STRATEGY to enter a position which reduces downside risk over the averaging period. pretty simple concept, not sure why all the debate You're correct, but based on what I've read here and elsewhere, DCA is way, way over-recommended as a great way to reduce potent...
by heart_in_san_francisco
Thu Nov 21, 2019 1:38 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Talk Me Off the Active Investing Ledge!
Replies: 58
Views: 3997

Re: Talk Me Off the Active Investing Ledge!

Unlike most Bogleheads here, I think there are many people who can and will beat the market averages. And I believe it is possible to tell this ahead of time, not by looking at their fund performance, but by understanding how they go about the investment process. I believe your first statement. I d...
by heart_in_san_francisco
Thu Nov 21, 2019 1:31 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Dollar Cost Averaging or: how I learned to stop worrying and love the Lump Sum
Replies: 38
Views: 3409

Re: Dollar Cost Averaging or: how I learned to stop worrying and love the Lump Sum

Since many investors typically get their money every two weeks or twice a month via a paycheck and invest it then, the VAST majority of people in 401k plans are using DCA whether they realize it or not, and many of them do just fine. Investing money when you get the money is not DCA'ing, that is pe...
by heart_in_san_francisco
Thu Nov 21, 2019 1:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fact or fiction? Having at least some bonds/cash, to rebalance vs 100% equities.
Replies: 41
Views: 2927

Re: Fact or fiction? Having at least some bonds/cash, to rebalance vs 100% equities.

There is a huge emotional benefit to being able to rebalance. I was 100% Stocks until age 58. I did the grin-and-bear-it thing in 1987, 2000 and 2007. I started rebalancing in preparation for retirement in early 2015. I hIt a rebalancing band in the minor turndown in August of 2015 and it was such ...
by heart_in_san_francisco
Thu Nov 21, 2019 12:41 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Talk Me Off the Active Investing Ledge!
Replies: 58
Views: 3997

Re: Talk Me Off the Active Investing Ledge!

Unlike most Bogleheads here, I think there are many people who can and will beat the market averages. And I believe it is possible to tell this ahead of time, not by looking at their fund performance, but by understanding how they go about the investment process. I believe your first statement. I d...
by heart_in_san_francisco
Thu Nov 21, 2019 12:32 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Talk Me Off the Active Investing Ledge!
Replies: 58
Views: 3997

Re: Talk Me Off the Active Investing Ledge!

It's really easy to beat the market. Just take more risk, and get lucky. Great way to put it. This so-called strategy worked for me. I made a huge windfall working at a pre-IPO tech company. No, not the first one. Not the second one. Not the third one. Not the fourth one... even though it did very ...
by heart_in_san_francisco
Thu Nov 21, 2019 12:22 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Talk Me Off the Active Investing Ledge!
Replies: 58
Views: 3997

Re: Talk Me Off the Active Investing Ledge!

this is called recency bias. Read Jack Bogle's "The Little Book of Commonsense Investing", pay particularly close attention to the chapter 9 titled, "Yesterday's Winners, Tomorrow's Losers". You'll see that the first shall be the last and the last shall be the first. Is it possible to inverse this ...
by heart_in_san_francisco
Thu Nov 21, 2019 12:00 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Dollar Cost Averaging or: how I learned to stop worrying and love the Lump Sum
Replies: 38
Views: 3409

Re: Dollar Cost Averaging or: how I learned to stop worrying and love the Lump Sum

dwickenh wrote:
Wed Nov 20, 2019 11:54 pm
It is normally used in reference to purchasing shares with a large amount(windfall) of money. I have not seen DCA used in reference to selling shares.
As my story demonstrates, windfalls come in more forms than just cash, and DCA is bunk no matter the form the windfall appears.
by heart_in_san_francisco
Wed Nov 20, 2019 11:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Dollar Cost Averaging or: how I learned to stop worrying and love the Lump Sum
Replies: 38
Views: 3409

Dollar Cost Averaging or: how I learned to stop worrying and love the Lump Sum

Storytime. I keep hearing about how DCA "reduces risk" or "minimizes regret", but it doesn't. Allow my personal story to demonstrate a scenario, and before you finish the post, decide what you'd do in my shoes. I worked at a pre-IPO tech company for a while. I was an early-ish employee, and received...
by heart_in_san_francisco
Sun Nov 17, 2019 11:01 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Roast my investing strategy. (Help me FIRE)
Replies: 31
Views: 3630

Re: Roast my investing strategy. (Help me FIRE)

Also, thank you for your condolences. The loss of my father hit me harder than I ever expected it to. He had brain cancer, was given 2-5 years, and survived for 1 year, although in some ways he died when he had his initial brain cancer surgery. Towards the end he died unexpectedly quick, I didn’t m...
by heart_in_san_francisco
Sun Nov 17, 2019 3:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Roast my investing strategy. (Help me FIRE)
Replies: 31
Views: 3630

Re: Roast my investing strategy. (Help me FIRE)

Also, thank you for your condolences. The loss of my father hit me harder than I ever expected it to. He had brain cancer, was given 2-5 years, and survived for 1 year, although in some ways he died when he had his initial brain cancer surgery. Towards the end he died unexpectedly quick, I didn’t m...
by heart_in_san_francisco
Sun Nov 17, 2019 11:29 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Roast my investing strategy. (Help me FIRE)
Replies: 31
Views: 3630

Re: Roast my investing strategy. (Help me FIRE)

Also, thank you for your condolences. The loss of my father hit me harder than I ever expected it to. He had brain cancer, was given 2-5 years, and survived for 1 year, although in some ways he died when he had his initial brain cancer surgery. Towards the end he died unexpectedly quick, I didn’t ma...
by heart_in_san_francisco
Sun Nov 17, 2019 11:21 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Roast my investing strategy. (Help me FIRE)
Replies: 31
Views: 3630

Re: Roast my investing strategy. (Help me FIRE)

Hi! Long-time lurker. I'm questioning if I'm financially ready to FIRE. Quick rundown on my finances: My age: 37. Wife: 42. Child: 1 Skipping all the assets, what makes you - at age 37 - want to retire? What is your career and your wife's career that have led to wanting to pull the plug at such you...
by heart_in_san_francisco
Sun Nov 17, 2019 12:09 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Roast my investing strategy. (Help me FIRE)
Replies: 31
Views: 3630

Re: Roast my investing strategy. (Help me FIRE)

Hi! Long-time lurker. I'm questioning if I'm financially ready to FIRE. Quick rundown on my finances: My age: 37. Wife: 42. Child: 1 Skipping all the assets, what makes you - at age 37 - want to retire? What is your career and your wife's career that have led to wanting to pull the plug at such you...
by heart_in_san_francisco
Sat Nov 16, 2019 4:43 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Roast my investing strategy. (Help me FIRE)
Replies: 31
Views: 3630

Re: Roast my investing strategy. (Help me FIRE)

If you don't actually have a concrete plan for extra income, I would assume zero. "Working for a nonprofit" or "becoming a teacher" isn't as easy as it sounds. Those are real jobs that require experience and credentials. That said, $2M should be plenty for any normal person. Why don't you have a Ro...
by heart_in_san_francisco
Sat Nov 16, 2019 4:30 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Roast my investing strategy. (Help me FIRE)
Replies: 31
Views: 3630

Re: Roast my investing strategy. (Help me FIRE)

So I really screwed up the arithmetic. My household net worth is a bit more than $3.5M. I forgot to add my wife's assets when summing up the total, and forgot about a Roth IRA worth $70k and a couple other five-figure assets. I'll edit the original post. I don't think it materially changes any of th...
by heart_in_san_francisco
Fri Nov 15, 2019 12:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Roast my investing strategy. (Help me FIRE)
Replies: 31
Views: 3630

Re: Roast my investing strategy. (Help me FIRE)

MotoTrojan wrote:
Fri Nov 15, 2019 11:57 am
Personally I’d want to be rid of the stress of being a landlord.

Why no international exposure? A little bit of long term treasuries could help too.
Doesn’t VOO give you a lot of international exposure without a separate international fund to tilt?
by heart_in_san_francisco
Fri Nov 15, 2019 10:48 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Roast my investing strategy. (Help me FIRE)
Replies: 31
Views: 3630

Re: Roast my investing strategy. (Help me FIRE)

Note on selling the house versus renting it: we live in California, where our property tax increase is capped, and the house property tax is already about 60% of what a new house property tax would be. The lower property tax is a "hidden asset", right? That makes me disinclined to sell it, even if i...
by heart_in_san_francisco
Thu Nov 14, 2019 2:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Roast my investing strategy. (Help me FIRE)
Replies: 31
Views: 3630

Re: Roast my investing strategy. (Help me FIRE)

You could always work here and there, start a blog or video channel on youtube. Yes, that's part of the plan, I've been thinking about starting a YouTube channel for a while. I'm not counting on making lots of money that way, but it'll be more than $0. We're also considering remote work (in our fie...
by heart_in_san_francisco
Thu Nov 14, 2019 2:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Roast my investing strategy. (Help me FIRE)
Replies: 31
Views: 3630

Roast my investing strategy. (Help me FIRE)

Hi! Long-time lurker. I'm questioning if I'm financially ready to FIRE. Quick rundown on my finances: 1. $1,392,000 in personal brokerage account (taxes already paid on gains in this account) 2. $179,000 in 401k 3. Primary home valued at $2,070,000 (average across Trulia, Zillow, SmartZip, and Redfi...
by heart_in_san_francisco
Wed Nov 09, 2011 7:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to profit from rent-controlled apartment
Replies: 30
Views: 2245

Re: How to profit from rent-controlled apartment

but rent-control makes it hard for this boglehead to justify moving. How does this boglehead rationalize losing all the hundreds of thousands of dollars in possible tax free equity? Maybe you're being penny wise.............? Do you understand WHY the rental market rate is 40% higher. Of course you...
by heart_in_san_francisco
Wed Nov 09, 2011 2:36 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to profit from rent-controlled apartment
Replies: 30
Views: 2245

Re: How to profit from rent-controlled apartment

madbrain wrote:hsf,

The way for you to best take advantage of the rent control is to lock in a lease with the longest possible term, and stay put. You will save tons of money doing so.
Already have a permanent month-to-month lease that can only be terminated at my leisure.
by heart_in_san_francisco
Wed Nov 09, 2011 2:23 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to profit from rent-controlled apartment
Replies: 30
Views: 2245

Re: How to profit from rent-controlled apartment

Is subleasing legal? Didn't think it was but it if so, that's an obvious option. A violation of lease, yes. The consequence is my lease would be terminated if the landlord found out (unlikely). I don't believe there are any other consequences in SF. EDIT: This seems like a huge headache and I don't...
by heart_in_san_francisco
Wed Nov 09, 2011 1:49 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to profit from rent-controlled apartment
Replies: 30
Views: 2245

Re: How to profit from rent-controlled apartment

I'm sorry if you don't like rent-control, but I didn't make the laws. I'm here for financial advice, not a lecture.
by heart_in_san_francisco
Wed Nov 09, 2011 1:25 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to profit from rent-controlled apartment
Replies: 30
Views: 2245

How to profit from rent-controlled apartment

So I am looking to move and buy a place, but rent-control makes it hard for this boglehead to justify moving. I'm paying 40% under market rate for a rent-controlled 1-bedroom in San Francisco. How can I capture some of the "true market value" of my apartment? Two ideas I've had: Ask the apartment ma...
by heart_in_san_francisco
Wed Oct 19, 2011 6:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What is the 'value' of being able to contribute to a ROTH?
Replies: 24
Views: 2430

Re: What is the 'value' of being able to contribute to a ROT

Personally, I would pay money to avoid a ROTH. For most people it is the wrong decision. 1) Money now is worth more than money later. A tax deferred is a tax avoided: who knows what tax policy will be 10-20-30-40 years from now? Higher, maybe, but for who? What deductions will be available? Will hig...
by heart_in_san_francisco
Fri Oct 14, 2011 8:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying your first home with cash? Am I crazy?
Replies: 55
Views: 6791

San Francisco weathered the RE storm much better than most cities in the US. If anything, it's proven to be a much less volatile market than most. There are hundreds of thousands of people in the Bay who would snap up an SF home if prices came down even 10%. Not sure what you are smoking. SF prices...
by heart_in_san_francisco
Thu Oct 13, 2011 11:13 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Advice for buying a new Laptop
Replies: 91
Views: 11417

Congratulations on your purchase, I am sure your daughter will be very happy with the Macbook Pro for years to come! I love my Mac Pro.

Just out of curiosity, what features did you like about the Macbook Pro over the Macbook Air? What tipped the decision there?