Search found 174 matches

by mrwalken
Fri Apr 03, 2020 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't all investors go 100% stocks
Replies: 72
Views: 5263

Re: Why don't all investors go 100% stocks

Because I fully believe at some point, "this time is different" will actually be true.
by mrwalken
Wed Apr 01, 2020 6:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does anyone invest in international funds?
Replies: 306
Views: 18734

Re: Why does anyone invest in international funds?

I have invested in VEU and VSS for over a decade. Considering they are both near all-time lows for the history of the ETFs, I assume the answer to your question must be tax loss harvesting.
by mrwalken
Wed Apr 01, 2020 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the coming pain really "priced in"?
Replies: 201
Views: 19530

Re: Is the coming pain really "priced in"?

I would say No, but there are two big wildcards: 1. The US government can print virtually limitless amounts of $$$. We don't know how far they will go to prop up the market. An additional massive infusion will cause the market to shoot up. 2. If an antiviral or combination of antivirals is discovere...
by mrwalken
Mon Mar 30, 2020 5:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Great example of someone who should have never invested in factors
Replies: 119
Views: 8390

Re: Great example of someone who should have never invested in factors

One issue is that when you go down the slice and dice road, it's hard to get off that road. Especially if you have a bunch of taxable gains. I overestimated how interested I would be in investing initially, and now am stuck. The worst part for me is that I had to buy VBR and VSS as ETF's when going ...
by mrwalken
Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone else increasing their equity allocation?
Replies: 28
Views: 3041

Re: Anyone else increasing their equity allocation?

I'm 36. I started at 60/40. Rebalanced a bit on the way down but with so much crashing, I'm down to 54/46. Getting closer to 50/50 by the day. I will eventually push back to 60/40, although not really in a hurry since this crash feels like it has legs. If we get down to s&p 1600, I would go to 7...
by mrwalken
Sat Mar 21, 2020 5:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: COVID Crash: What did you get right?
Replies: 61
Views: 2907

Re: COVID Crash: What did you get right?

Seems like we could summarize by saying that people who respected the sentiment 'Cash is King' are doing well. It's remarkable how well the USD has done as an asset class this year. Crushed everything.
by mrwalken
Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Death of Early Retirement
Replies: 14
Views: 2121

Re: The Death of Early Retirement

I admit when I had 1.65M at 36, I was toying with the idea of walking away from the stress of the working world and retiring to Thailand or Ecuador or half a dozen other low cost places. Now that I am down to 1.3M (and falling), I think I can safely push those ideas out of my mind for a few years. I...
by mrwalken
Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Deploying your emergency fund to buy stocks? Think again.
Replies: 183
Views: 29870

Re: Deploying your emergency fund to buy stocks? Think again.

I find it amazing that anyone would consider using the emergency fund to buy equities ANYTIME. It's very much like the people when the market is high using credit cards to buy stock. To me its an indicator of people allocating too much of their portfolio to stocks. If you have 100% stocks right now...
by mrwalken
Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: COVID Crash: What did you get right?
Replies: 61
Views: 2907

Re: COVID Crash: What did you get right?

5. Real Estate - I'm diversified via real estate as well, so far it's holding up, but time will tell. For now, it's ballasting my net worth, which is down maybe ~18% vs 30% market. REITS are down 35% -- how is real estate ballasting your net worth? I suspect the real value of actual property is dow...
by mrwalken
Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: COVID Crash: What did you get right?
Replies: 61
Views: 2907

Re: COVID Crash: What did you get right?

5. Real Estate - I'm diversified via real estate as well, so far it's holding up, but time will tell. For now, it's ballasting my net worth, which is down maybe ~18% vs 30% market. REITS are down 35% -- how is real estate ballasting your net worth? I suspect the real value of actual property is dow...
by mrwalken
Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: COVID Crash: What did you get right?
Replies: 61
Views: 2907

Re: COVID Crash: What did you get right?

Best thing I did was put several hundred thousand of cash into HYS accounts over the last few years rather than the market. Wasn't predicting anything specific, just staying at 60/40. And market gains alone were keeping the stock portion at 60. So the 60/40 approach forced me to avoid buying high, ...
by mrwalken
Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: COVID Crash: What did you get right?
Replies: 61
Views: 2907

Re: COVID Crash: What did you get right?

Best thing I did was put several hundred thousand of cash into HYS accounts over the last few years rather than the market. Wasn't predicting anything specific, just staying at 60/40. And market gains alone were keeping the stock portion at 60. So the 60/40 approach forced me to avoid buying high, w...
by mrwalken
Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I won the game but kept playing
Replies: 133
Views: 12148

Re: I won the game but kept playing

To clarify I was at 2.8m, now at 2.2m. Current AA is 55/30/15 Not sure if I sell some taxable which are heavy in s and p 500 or keep riding it down. Feel trapped with few options. Feel bad bellyaching as I know others are in far worse shape. Added stress is job loss Is likely coming and being in a ...
by mrwalken
Sat Mar 21, 2020 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I won the game but kept playing
Replies: 133
Views: 12148

Re: I won the game but kept playing

If you are close to 100% stocks and over 50, I would be concerned that your 2M could continue dropping to 1M or worse. Of course, selling low sucks. But do you have to go all the way down with the ship? Age in bonds/cash is a good rule imo. $1M? You seriously think -67% is in the cards? If that hap...
by mrwalken
Sat Mar 21, 2020 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I won the game but kept playing
Replies: 133
Views: 12148

Re: I won the game but kept playing

If you are close to 100% stocks and over 50, I would be concerned that your 2M could continue dropping to 1M or worse.

Of course, selling low sucks. But do you have to go all the way down with the ship?

Age in bonds/cash is a good rule imo.
by mrwalken
Fri Mar 20, 2020 4:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
Replies: 573
Views: 38723

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

S&P 1200 and then slow by steady run up back to 2500 by 2025.
by mrwalken
Fri Mar 20, 2020 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who here is buying stocks today and how much?
Replies: 311
Views: 28971

Re: Who here is buying stocks today and how much?

Buying small amounts but still holding a ton of cash. It just feels really hard to predict how bad this will get. If the S&P drops to like 500, being too heavy in stocks could be very painful.
by mrwalken
Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4077
Views: 321272

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Italy market is flat because they just started using chloroquine a few days ago. Everybody is watching the death rate. If it peaks and starts rapidly dropping, all markets will shoot through the roof. We know China and S Korea have been using chloroquine for a while. We know what Trump said today. I...
by mrwalken
Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will Vanguard Small Cap Value (VBR) rebound?
Replies: 13
Views: 1667

Re: Will Vanguard Small Cap Value (VBR) rebound?

It could be worse. You could be asking whether VWO will rebound. The answer is no, no it won't.
by mrwalken
Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has anybody been paying attention to currency moves?
Replies: 12
Views: 912

Re: Has anybody been paying attention to currency moves?

Yup... cash is in demand, lots of people selling longer term assets and moving to cash (for whatever reason) supply/demand That doesn't really address the flow to USD from basically everything. Other currencies, stocks of all kinds, bonds, gold, crypto. Anything else? USD are literally massively ou...
by mrwalken
Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has anybody been paying attention to currency moves?
Replies: 12
Views: 912

Re: Has anybody been paying attention to currency moves?

staustin wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:12 pm I've seen it. It's punishing my emerging markets fund. :oops:
Yeah, all foreign funds have taken a pounding because of the global flight to dollars. I imagine that will revert back if the world goes back to normal. Seems like a big if these days.
by mrwalken
Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has anybody been paying attention to currency moves?
Replies: 12
Views: 912

Has anybody been paying attention to currency moves?

In the past month, USD is up 10% vs CAD, 12% vs GBP, 15% vs AUD, 28% vs MXN.

If we ever get to travel again, our money will go far.

Cash really is king. And by cash, I mean USD.
by mrwalken
Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand the case for EE bonds
Replies: 534
Views: 57018

Re: I don't understand the case for EE bonds

My EE bonds have done MUCH better than most other holdings, like VEU, VSS, VNQI, VNQ, VBR, BND especially when you consider tax consequences. I would venture to say over the last ten years or so, SPY is the only holding I have that has done better than EE bonds. Of course the next decade may be diff...
by mrwalken
Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How many funds do you have in your portfolio?
Replies: 167
Views: 12219

Re: How many funds do you have in your portfolio?

Slicing has been rough. VNQ, VNQI, VEU, VSS, VBR. Basically all at all time lows for the history of the fund (lol). And maybe going much lower! At least I kept a solid percentage in S&P or I would be down for my investing life at this point. Congrats to people who just stuck to S&P 500 over ...
by mrwalken
Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do 60/40 and 40/60 funds recover faster than the total market on the way up? Get back to break even I am referring
Replies: 15
Views: 2043

Re: Why do 60/40 and 40/60 funds recover faster than the total market on the way up? Get back to break even I am referr

willthrill81 wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:25 pm
Exactly. In most stock market corrections, bonds hold up well, so they don't have to 'recover' at all.
Except the 2008-2009 crash. And this crash. Come to think of it, bonds look awfully risky at the worst possible times given their current paltry returns.
by mrwalken
Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20768
Views: 2837146

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Previous crashes tended to be more of a slow bleed. At this rate, the s&p could be sub-1500 in a few days. Youch!
by mrwalken
Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2020 COVID Crash Lessons
Replies: 157
Views: 13478

Re: 2020 COVID Crash Lessons

I interpret your 1-3 as all basically saying Buy Mutual Funds, Not ETFs. I have had similar painful experiences with ETFs here. The crash has actually set me up to dump all ETFs and fully switch to funds since I can sell so much at a loss. However, I am terrified about how much more money I will los...
by mrwalken
Wed Mar 18, 2020 3:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy & Hold, 2 Decades Later
Replies: 8
Views: 1121

Re: Buy & Hold, 2 Decades Later

That's why you need to buy the dips.
by mrwalken
Wed Mar 18, 2020 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: As of today (Mar 18, 2020), MDY=-40%, IWM=-41%, SPY=-26.48%
Replies: 14
Views: 1050

Re: As of today (Mar 18, 2020), MDY=-40%, IWM=-41%, SPY=-26.48%

If SPY goes to -50%, expect small caps to go to -80%. Bankruptcies.
by mrwalken
Wed Mar 18, 2020 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)
Replies: 514
Views: 51042

Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

One approach to help with the mental drain is to plot out difference scenarios... S&P drops to 2000 S&P drops to 1500 S&P drops to 1000 S&P drops to 500 Figure out a schedule of buys that will keep enough dry powder ready for the furthest drop you are comfortable with (meaning that y...
by mrwalken
Wed Mar 18, 2020 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VEU at 10+ year low
Replies: 3
Views: 336

Re: VEU at 10+ year low

See the first quote in my signature below V V V V I think the second part is also appropriate for these days: To get the "risk premium", you really do have to take the risk - nisiprius Seems like we sometimes forget there is a risk with stocks that you will lose a lot of money and that mo...
by mrwalken
Wed Mar 18, 2020 12:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VEU at 10+ year low
Replies: 3
Views: 336

VEU at 10+ year low

Tough decade for international stocks. Good buying opportunity, or another terrible 10 years coming up?
by mrwalken
Wed Mar 18, 2020 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)
Replies: 514
Views: 51042

Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

I might buy a little more today. Need to keep a good amount in reserve though, this is getting to a point where the bottom could really fall out.
by mrwalken
Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Updated 3/18 - "You can't hide in bonds" article
Replies: 183
Views: 10228

Re: "You can't hide in bonds" article

If there ever was a time to dump bonds for cash, it is now. Low potential returns, increasingly high risk
by mrwalken
Tue Mar 17, 2020 7:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Charting the carnage. Price drops Jan 1 - Mar 17
Replies: 19
Views: 1538

Re: Charting the carnage. Price drops Jan 1 - Mar 17

The bad news is that Value tilts have not worked here. Good news is that my portfolio is less tilted than before. The Swedroe Shuffle didn't work, at least in the shorter time. But then again, we have been warned that Small Value and REITs are pretty volatile. I feel less bad about value and REITs ...
by mrwalken
Tue Mar 17, 2020 7:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Charting the carnage. Price drops Jan 1 - Mar 17
Replies: 19
Views: 1538

Re: Charting the carnage. Price drops Jan 1 - Mar 17

watchnerd wrote: Tue Mar 17, 2020 6:12 pm Mine, YTD:

VT: -25%
VTIP: -6%
VMMXX (cash): 0.27%
VGLT: +12%
Seems you have more actual diversification. Most of my funds just go up less whenever the s&p goes up and go down more whenever the s&p goes down.
by mrwalken
Tue Mar 17, 2020 5:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Charting the carnage. Price drops Jan 1 - Mar 17
Replies: 19
Views: 1538

Charting the carnage. Price drops Jan 1 - Mar 17

I pulled together YTD returns on all the funds/ETFs I own. Everything is down. Interesting to note that the S&P has outperformed all other stock funds that I own. Bond funds are lagging badly behind cash. Cash is my best performing asset class this year. SPY -22.5% VTSAX -23.5% VBR -36% VTIAX -2...
by mrwalken
Tue Mar 17, 2020 4:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)
Replies: 514
Views: 51042

Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Stef wrote: Tue Mar 17, 2020 4:42 pm Kicking myself for not buying VTI today at 118$.

Hopefully I'll see that price again in the coming days.
I think the antivirals showing effectiveness vs COVID-19 will probably mean we are going up from here.
by mrwalken
Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: At what s&p level would you be comfortable 100% equity?
Replies: 35
Views: 2067

Re: At what s&p level would you be comfortable 100% equity?

1,760. Possibly sooner. That would reflect the CAPE achieved at the bottom of the last recession. The S&P bottomed at about 666 on 3/9/09, IIRC. PE10 was about 11.59 in real time then (Q1 earnings not yet available). You can adjust Shiller's spreadsheet to see this. (Plug in 666, and move real ...
by mrwalken
Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: At what s&p level would you be comfortable 100% equity?
Replies: 35
Views: 2067

At what s&p level would you be comfortable 100% equity?

Under the assumption that things may get much worse before they get better, I have been playing with the numbers to try to figure out a ramp at which to move cash reserves into the market. I feel like there is a floor at which I am ok going all-in because if the market fails at that level, even cash...
by mrwalken
Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll - How much of a crash are you predicting?
Replies: 82
Views: 5547

Re: Poll - How much of a crash are you predicting?

Help me understand something... So the market is currently down about 30% from its peak. Most people in this thread are guessing it'll continue to drop to around 50% or more. If that is one's prediction, then why is that person not selling right now? Why not get out of the market and buy back in in...
by mrwalken
Mon Mar 16, 2020 6:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll - How much of a crash are you predicting?
Replies: 82
Views: 5547

Re: Poll - How much of a crash are you predicting?

-80% from the top. Cash is king
by mrwalken
Mon Mar 16, 2020 5:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where My 100% Equities Peeps At?!?
Replies: 211
Views: 21523

Re: Where My 100% Equities Peeps At?!?

watchnerd wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 5:03 pm
mrwalken wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 4:37 pm mobilizing cash reserves on the way down.
What does mobilizing cash reserves mean?

When I want to buy stuff, I just buy it....
Moving cash from HYS to an account that can send money to vanguard, basically.
by mrwalken
Mon Mar 16, 2020 4:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where My 100% Equities Peeps At?!?
Replies: 211
Views: 21523

Re: Where My 100% Equities Peeps At?!?

60/40 here, mobilizing cash reserves on the way down. Set up the ramp today to go to 100% equity at s&p 1000. Hope it doesn't go that low, but I'm ready for it. If it goes below 1000, I'm not ready lol.
by mrwalken
Mon Mar 16, 2020 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20768
Views: 2837146

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I can't even imagine being anywhere near 100% stocks at a time like this.
by mrwalken
Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1289
Views: 122317

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Slowly mobilizing dry powder here, but I suspect this crash may have a ways to run.
by mrwalken
Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20768
Views: 2837146

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I bought a little today, not too much since today *mostly* just erased the Friday gains. I am mobilizing large amounts of cash reserve in case we go down another 20-30% from here.
by mrwalken
Mon Mar 16, 2020 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So.... is this really "it"? Is this what we needed to mentally prepare for?
Replies: 158
Views: 14564

Re: So.... is this really "it"? Is this what we needed to mentally prepare for?

It's an example of someone disillusioned by the long bull who assumed that the "20% correction" was just another blip and that we'd quickly return back to record highs. The difference is that we're now dealing with a pandemic. There does seem to be a prevailing notion here that the market...