Search found 99 matches

by Irenaeus
Tue May 26, 2020 11:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Worst House on the best block?
Replies: 52
Views: 4329

Re: Worst House on the best block?

stan1 wrote:
Tue May 26, 2020 8:45 pm
Sandtrap wrote:
Tue May 26, 2020 7:53 pm
Shipping Container???
😬😬

j🌺
They are in style right now among the Tiny House people.

https://www.curbed.com/2017/6/21/158397 ... r-sale-buy
Couple Builds SHIPPING CONTAINER HOME W ... Experience
by Irenaeus
Fri May 22, 2020 11:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: College in fall
Replies: 309
Views: 30346

Re: College in fall

Ive made it clear to the admissions officers of my HS senior's college that should they go all or mostly online we simply will not pay or enroll our daughter. As a STEM major / athlete, an online approach is simply unacceptable and would be catastrophic. No thank you. Many of my friends with HS sen...
by Irenaeus
Wed May 13, 2020 12:17 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Broke mother-in-law retiring due to COVID-19
Replies: 54
Views: 6501

Re: Broke mother-in-law retiring due to COVID-19

My broke mother-in-law is a primary school teacher and is considering retiring this June or next June given the increased risk from COVID-19 and her age/health. Unfortunately, she has a spending problem and does not have much to work with. Thanks in advance for sharing ideas on ways we can potentia...
by Irenaeus
Sun May 03, 2020 3:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]
Replies: 237
Views: 16088

Re: American exceptionalism

Henry Luce said that 1941 was going to be the beginning of "the American century." If so, taking it literally: 79 years down, 21 to go. Looking ahead to rest of the 21st century, it's most likely the large majority of the world's economic growth will be coming from the middle-income, emerging count...
by Irenaeus
Wed Apr 29, 2020 11:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Diversifying from Amazon stock - help!
Replies: 40
Views: 6230

Re: Diversifying from Amazon stock - help!

I would suggest sticking with amazon stock. It is a 700B company now. I don't see why it cant be a 1 TN+ company in the near future. Amazon is an amazing company. But something going very wrong with Amazon would expose the Topic Author and her husband not only to a likely plunge in the price of the...
by Irenaeus
Wed Apr 29, 2020 5:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Holding Gold as "Doomsday Fund"
Replies: 121
Views: 5029

Re: Holding Gold as "Doomsday Fund"

Right now 5% of my portfolio is in gold as a hedge, but it's in an ETF, not physical. I held physical gold from 2008-2010 and it was expensive to trade in and out of. I also have a few hundred dollars in silver coins, just as a hobby. I think an idea of a doomsday hedge is okay, but what will you b...
by Irenaeus
Fri Apr 24, 2020 8:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Moving out of NYC due to pandemic
Replies: 164
Views: 12712

Re: Moving out of NYC due to pandemic

I did my training in NYC and now work with the surgeons who trained me. I am not going to find similar group of supportive people again. Also, as an early career physician, my compensation is almost at the top percentile. Otherwise, I do not have much allure for NYC as such. Everything is so expens...
by Irenaeus
Thu Apr 23, 2020 12:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those concerned about International Stocks...
Replies: 78
Views: 6814

Re: For those concerned about International Stocks...

I would a healthy chunk of my investments in areas that underperformed recently but over the long term has performed comparably or better. Such as? What are some specific examples? Your criterion doesn't apply to ex-US indexing since it under-performed in the long run even when ignoring the recent ...
by Irenaeus
Wed Apr 22, 2020 7:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio Predicts
Replies: 28
Views: 3519

Re: Ray Dalio Predicts

I knew a Bridgewater employee and though I cannot recall exactly in which capacity he was employed at Bridgewater, I distinctly remember his telling me in 2007 that the US real estate market would plummet about 30%. I didn't think much of it at the time and he didn't say much to explain his dire war...
by Irenaeus
Wed Apr 22, 2020 7:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Still using total bond market?
Replies: 140
Views: 16584

Re: Still using total bond market?

Yes -- to the extent that it's part of a global bond allocation (BNDW). If anything, the recent actions by the Fed have made me less likely to limit myself to Treasuries. I'm a firm believer in diversifying within an entire asset class and against failure in any single economy. Care to tell what el...
by Irenaeus
Mon Apr 20, 2020 2:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: There Is No Gold
Replies: 160
Views: 12267

Re: There Is No Gold

But I wonder about the "taxed as ordinary income" part. Shouldn't that be "taxed as capital gains at the ordinary income tax rate with a maximum rate of 28%"? I say this because I suspect there are other provisions in the code that refer to capital gains as distinct from ordinary income regardless ...
by Irenaeus
Mon Apr 20, 2020 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: There Is No Gold
Replies: 160
Views: 12267

Re: There Is No Gold

But I wonder about the "taxed as ordinary income" part. Shouldn't that be "taxed as capital gains at the ordinary income tax rate with a maximum rate of 28%"? I say this because I suspect there are other provisions in the code that refer to capital gains as distinct from ordinary income regardless ...
by Irenaeus
Sat Apr 18, 2020 4:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I give blood now?
Replies: 23
Views: 1420

Re: Should I give blood now?

I routinely donate blood several times a year. I'm reluctant to give now given concerns about the corona virus. What do you think? Have you given lately? DW is very nervous. I gave blood eight days ago on Good Friday at the Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center in Manhattan. It was the first time ...
by Irenaeus
Fri Apr 17, 2020 4:58 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 72501

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

All the internet experts were so sure that CV19 was 30-40 times more lethal than the flu. More transmittable and more lethal! For those who are still comparing COVID to the "seasonal flu" and the H1N1 and SARS epidemics, I think this graph will be illuminating. A picture is worth a thousand words. ...
by Irenaeus
Wed Apr 15, 2020 12:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What in the world is propping up this market?
Replies: 206
Views: 20756

Re: What in the world is propping up this market?

I know we Bogleheads aren't supposed to pay attention to market movements but I really am fascinated by the resiliency of this market. I mean, the economy is all but shut down folks. The market is supposed to price companies based on book value and projected earnings, so what does the market see in...
by Irenaeus
Tue Apr 14, 2020 11:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 40859

Re: Why international?

Jack Bogle said international stocks weren’t necessary. I agree with Jack. Unnecessary does not mean undesirable or unwise. And am I mistaken that it is with respect to international stocks, perhaps along with international bonds, high yield bonds and TIPS, that Mr. Bogle seems to have been unwilli...
by Irenaeus
Tue Apr 14, 2020 12:37 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Diversification
Replies: 40
Views: 2267

Re: Diversification

Could someone clarify for me why it is considered important to hold international stock assets for diversification purposes (Vanguard currently recommends 40% for "full diversification benefits") when international stocks as a whole appear to experience a very significant correlation with U.S. stoc...
by Irenaeus
Mon Apr 13, 2020 1:18 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Unhedged Foreign Bond Funds
Replies: 22
Views: 935

Re: Unhedged Foreign Bond Funds

Do you prefer unhedged to hedged foreign bonds? Why do you hold or wish to hold them? Just curious. I understand that unhedged ex-US bonds have lower correlations with US bonds than do hedged ex-US bonds. Do they also offer better protection against inflation or deflation? Thanks.
by Irenaeus
Sun Apr 12, 2020 1:42 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 72501

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

The number you are looking for is 100 million. 100 million Americans have hypertension, prediabetes, diabetes, COPD, significant obesity or cardiovascular disease. No accusations here, but I've noticed, what to me, is a disturbing trend in this thread and others which IMHO attempts to lay blame for...
by Irenaeus
Sat Apr 11, 2020 12:18 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 72501

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Our estimated death numbers have been revised down (again) to around 60,000. Maybe it was just a "bad flu" after all? Maybe death numbers are down because rate of infection decreased by sending everybody home and imposing social distancing? I don't think a bad flu leaves some survivors with permane...
by Irenaeus
Sat Apr 11, 2020 1:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Total Bond and not Treasuries?
Replies: 161
Views: 14613

Re: Why Total Bond and not Treasuries?

How does an investor's tax bracket affect the choice among Total Bond, Treasury bonds and Total International Bond?
by Irenaeus
Mon Apr 06, 2020 5:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: bogleheading my car, opinions please. From a Tesla to a Honda
Replies: 84
Views: 5389

Re: bogleheading my car, opinions please. From a Tesla to a Honda

the way wrote:
Mon Apr 06, 2020 3:09 pm
imo if my eye surgeon suddenly downgraded from a 100k car to a 30k car, it would catch my attention
Nah, that wouldn't be much of an, er, um, spectacle. Hasn't Warren Buffet stuck to modest cars? Now if it were an optician....
by Irenaeus
Mon Apr 06, 2020 2:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: bogleheading my car, opinions please. From a Tesla to a Honda
Replies: 84
Views: 5389

Re: bogleheading my car, opinions please. From a Tesla to a Honda

If you want that new Honda, I wouldn't mix the two transactions. It'll end up being as bad as buying a new car, and trading in a really expensive car at the same time/same dealership. You're just going to come out ahead if you separate the two transactions. Sell the Tesla privately, then use bogleh...
by Irenaeus
Sun Apr 05, 2020 8:34 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 72501

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

The coronavirus outbreak could cost 47 million jobs next quarter, according to estimates by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. That would translate to an unemployment rate of 32.1%, well above the 24.9% rate it was at during the Great Depression. At some point the question might be "What is wor...
by Irenaeus
Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:22 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why Do So Many Recommend 70% - 100% Stocks?
Replies: 167
Views: 9516

Re: Why Do So Many Recommend 70% - 100% Stocks?

Since 1900, annualized real (after inflation) returns have been about 5.2% for stocks, 2.0% for bonds and 0.8% for treasury bills. Some round that to 5%, 2% and 1%.
by Irenaeus
Thu Apr 02, 2020 11:59 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 190910

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

There's is this mentality on the street that "This is not China. We are the USA." or "We'd rather die if no freedom." This is a valid opinion, even if a group of others do not agree with it. The absolute risk to healthy, young individuals is very, very low. We're currently walking a tightrope of tr...
by Irenaeus
Thu Apr 02, 2020 10:00 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 190910

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Japan is an outlier...why they didn't prepare is interesting and hopefully won't have tragic consequences. The Olympic Games. Victoria Questions raised over Tokyo’s infection spike after Olympics delay Here is an excerpt from that linked article: A spike in Tokyo’s coronavirus cases following the p...
by Irenaeus
Mon Mar 30, 2020 8:36 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much should I pay a financial advisor?
Replies: 15
Views: 1173

Re: How much should I pay a financial advisor?

How much should you pay? Zero point zero.
by Irenaeus
Mon Mar 30, 2020 12:27 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 190910

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

I saw a co-worker on Saturday here in New York City. I hadn't seen him in several days and he was clean shaven and had a fresh haircut. I asked if he had cut his own hair. He said no and that he had gotten the haircut behind screened windows at his regular barber shop. He added that two off-duty pol...
by Irenaeus
Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Longer-run economic consequences of pandemics"
Replies: 44
Views: 4056

Re: "Longer-run economic consequences of pandemics"

Just an observation: the Asian Flu (Wikipedia currently gives 1956-1958) barely preceded the Great Chinese Famine (1959-1961). The WHO estimates about 2,000,000 deaths globally for the former. Typical estimates for the latter from various scholars are 20,000,000 - 40,000,000. Perhaps China's disconn...
by Irenaeus
Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:54 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 190910

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Interesting to call back all the terrible "it's like the seasonal flu" / "how many people die of the flu each year" takes now that Dr. Fauci is estimating 100-200K deaths. I'll take the bait. Asian Flu, 1957: Equivalent to 230,000 American deaths in 2020. Sadly, we've been there and done that. 1968...
by Irenaeus
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:41 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 190910

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Here is an article on some of the tension between the fight against the virus and the economic hardship of the fight: India's poorest 'fear hunger may kill us before coronavirus' Here is an excerpt: A cobbler, who didn't want to give his name, said he had been "polishing people's shoes at the railwa...
by Irenaeus
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:25 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 190910

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

The following article from 2018 is somewhat tangential or at least peripheral to this thread, but makes for interesting reading:

The Chinese Workers Who Assemble Designer Bags in Tuscany

Note that below the title of the linked piece is an audio version.
by Irenaeus
Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the 30-year total return for S&P500 or VTI?
Replies: 20
Views: 1743

Re: What is the 30-year total return for S&P500 or VTI?

Hello CO1Mtn and welcome. Since 1900, annualized real (after inflation) returns have been about 5.2% for stocks, 2.0% for bonds and 0.8% for treasury bills. Some round that to 5%, 2% and 1%.
by Irenaeus
Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:50 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 190910

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

FWIW I have tried these drugs in my patients. They haven’t worked. We are giving it because we have no other treatments It’s a little naive to think a 50 year old malaria/lupus drug and a zpac are gonna get us out of this. No matter what the president says. There are clinical trials ongoing of vari...
by Irenaeus
Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What's cheap right now?
Replies: 33
Views: 3744

Re: What's cheap right now?

Kenkat wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:14 am
grettman wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:10 am
Gufomel wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:41 pm
Phineas J. Whoopee wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:34 pm
Advice. Speculation. Assertions.
PJW
Bravo. Well done.
+1. {golf clap}
And can I get a “whoop, whoop” for Phineas J! :beer
"Phineas J. Whoopee" - I love that name. Still, it would be cool sometimes to go as "Phineas J. Whoopass."
by Irenaeus
Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What's cheap right now?
Replies: 33
Views: 3744

Re: What's cheap right now?

Hello all. I live in New York City. I often buy blueberries from the sidewalk vendors which usually have lower prices than the supermarkets (well, the "super" in "supermarkets" in Manhattan, anyway, might be an exaggeration with regard to size relative to suburban or rural areas), but the sidewalk v...
by Irenaeus
Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:14 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 190910

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Bloomberg.com has the below-linked article on the relative well-being of Germany, particularly with respect to Italy: Coronavirus Less Deadly in Germany Because of Youthful Patients This is why in Wuhan they separated cases (even mild ones) from their families and put them in centralized quarantine...
by Irenaeus
Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:01 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 190910

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Bloomberg.com has the below-linked article on the relative well-being of Germany, particularly with respect to Italy:

Coronavirus Less Deadly in Germany Because of Youthful Patients
by Irenaeus
Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cramer on buying index funds during downturn
Replies: 56
Views: 5872

Re: Cramer on buying index funds during downturn

Relatively new to the board, so not sure what the collective take is on Jim Cramer, but he weighed in on index funds as it relates to buying during the downturn: Cramer warned, “[T]he problem with the index funds is that you inevitably own both the winners and losers; and the difference between win...
by Irenaeus
Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:52 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 190910

Re: eerily quiet in the hood

that is how is needs to be, everyone stay at home!!! I don't know if you're watching the news, but overnight there is suddenly a big nationwide push in the media [Deleted -- mod oldcomputerguy] to send people back to work to save the economy. Before anywhere in the US has even hit a peak they want ...
by Irenaeus
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:00 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 190910

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Separately, as I posted before - mortality rate is greatly overstated for this virus. Under reporting of cases (with no symptoms or minor symptoms) plus deaths tied to pre-existing conditions and comorbidities are not accounted for correctly. When dust settles, we will likely find out that it was n...
by Irenaeus
Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:06 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 190910

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Let's say if turns out that this one ends up being twice more deadly than regular flu (0.4% instead of 0.2% for the flu), it's certainly bad. However, that's entirely different from saying fatality rate is 4% (current belief). I bet we will not be shutting down countries if we knew fatality rate wa...
by Irenaeus
Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:40 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 190910

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

NY has half the reported cases in the US, 15k out of 30k. No one should be allowed to leave, especially NYC. Closing businesses is not enough if people are allowed to freely leave the city and infect people in other states. Hasn't New York had more testing than most other places? Won't your mandate...
by Irenaeus
Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:38 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 190910

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Total positive tests = 900 (true positive) + 4950 (false positive) = 5850. A test with a 90% sensitivity and a 95% specificity is a very good test. The current COVID tests were developed in a hurry. They are unlikely to be that good and so the numbers are likely to be that much worse. I do not clai...
by Irenaeus
Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:16 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 190910

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

The mortality rate from the DIamond Princess group has actually gone up as another passenger has died. https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20200321/p2g/00m/0na/050000c It appears that quite a few people are still hospitalized. Seems like an expert warning about making decisions without enough data...
by Irenaeus
Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:13 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 190910

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data , is an opinion published 17 March 2020 on Statnews.com. STAT is, in its own words, a media company [owned by Boston Globe Media] focused on finding and telling compelling stories about hea...
by Irenaeus
Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:24 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 190910

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

The current epidemic should also lead us to discuss as a society : Should we run our hospitals more inefficiently? Efficiency is frequently counted by mean "hospital bed occupancy" percentages. A hospital that has only 50% of its bed filled is an "inefficiently run hospital". One that has near 100%...
by Irenaeus
Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:08 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 190910

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Coronavirus Disease 2019 vs. the Flu COVID-19: Approximately 11,906 deaths reported worldwide; 260 deaths in the U.S., as of Mar. 21, 2020.* Flu: 291,000 to 646,000 deaths worldwide; 12,000 to 61,000 deaths in the U.S. per year. The COVID-19 situation is changing rapidly. Since this disease is caus...
by Irenaeus
Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What is the current neutral total market allocation?
Replies: 3
Views: 321

Re: What is the current neutral total market allocation?

Regarding the total world stock market allocation, I find this allocation in Vanguard's Total World Stock Market ETF (VT) as of 02/29/2020: 55.8% US. That implies 55.8% US / 44.2% non-US for stocks. And while I'm at it, regarding the total world bond market allocation, I find this allocation in Vang...