Search found 519 matches

by mac808
Mon Sep 28, 2020 11:18 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What can I expect from new golf clubs
Replies: 96
Views: 7433

Re: What can I expect from new golf clubs

Dogbreath650 wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 11:13 am I like the recommendations for buying used clubs (from a financial sense) but how does one get fitted correctly for a club you're buying on line?
There's a company called Curated(.com) that will match people online with golf pros for 1:1 chats to help advise them on what to buy. I don't know what it's like for golf, but I did it for another purchase (snowboarding) and it was fantastic. Good timing for a service like this since a lot of these specialty retail shops are closed down and the experts who used to work there are sitting on their hands with not much to do.
by mac808
Mon Apr 06, 2020 9:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Predictions for the next 6 months (spoiler: interest rates will rise)
Replies: 46
Views: 3565

Re: Predictions for the next 6 months (spoiler: interest rates will rise)

Rates will need to rise to slow down inflation. I see inflation in just about every scenario. If there is no inflation risk at all we are going to experience a serious multiyear recession that will crash the stock market regardless. I happen to think we will return to a level of normalcy by the late spring / early summer though. It's hard to predict a scenario that would create meaningful inflation in consumer goods. Post-2008 QE-driven inflation drained into certain markets: housing, health care, education (colleges), and financial assets (stock prices). I am on the record stating my prediction that health care and education are tapped out. Health care became so expensive that it hit a political ceiling (Medicare for All). Education becam...
by mac808
Thu Apr 02, 2020 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the coming pain really "priced in"?
Replies: 206
Views: 25687

Re: Is the coming pain really "priced in"?

The economy will get worse, perhaps much worse over the next few quarters. The worse it gets, the more money the Fed will print. The more money the Fed prints, the more inflation will be created. Over the past decade inflation has been “hidden” in sectors like health care, education, housing, and financial assets (stock prices). My guess is that health care and education are tapped out so that leaves housing and financial assets as our surviving inflation sponges. In other words, we are in the midst of a great tug-of-war between an underlying economy that is rapidly worsening and a Fed that will inject infinite amounts of capital to try and keep the system functioning. The backdrop is a global pandemic of unknown severity and duration (tha...
by mac808
Thu Apr 02, 2020 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the coming pain really "priced in"?
Replies: 206
Views: 25687

Re: Is the coming pain really "priced in"?

The more money the Fed prints, the more inflation will be created This is not a fact but many seem to treat it as such Deflationary aspects of the economy could balance it out Result could be no or low inflation I agree but there's some nuance to this. There is deflation in most consumer goods, no argument there. But a certain number of people, having purchased all these goods, are willing to spend the rest of their money chasing scarce resources for which demand exceeds supply: notably housing in desirable areas and the ability to retire/generate passive income (financial assets). As consumer goods become cheaper (deflation), housing and retirement become more expensive (inflation). I can't foresee a near-term scenario where people say &q...
by mac808
Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the coming pain really "priced in"?
Replies: 206
Views: 25687

Re: Is the coming pain really "priced in"?

Listen to this guy, Dr. Price. He is the front line Doctor at NY top hospital in charge of Covid 19. So unlike us, he actually knows what he is talking about. The video is lengthy (about an hour). The relevant part for this discussion: Dr. Price says the current reaction and death rate are so violent because the human body has not encountered this virus before. From next season on, the reaction will get milder with every year. Eventually, getting Covid 19 will be same as a mild cold. People who had it before may still get it again because the virus will mutate. But the general signature of the virus remains, and the human immune system will be trained to deal with it quickly. https://vimeo.com/399733860 I think this year will be very bad, ...
by mac808
Wed Apr 01, 2020 3:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the coming pain really "priced in"?
Replies: 206
Views: 25687

Re: Is the coming pain really "priced in"?

The economy will get worse, perhaps much worse over the next few quarters. The worse it gets, the more money the Fed will print. The more money the Fed prints, the more inflation will be created. Over the past decade inflation has been “hidden” in sectors like health care, education, housing, and financial assets (stock prices). My guess is that health care and education are tapped out so that leaves housing and financial assets as our surviving inflation sponges. In other words, we are in the midst of a great tug-of-war between an underlying economy that is rapidly worsening and a Fed that will inject infinite amounts of capital to try and keep the system functioning. The backdrop is a global pandemic of unknown severity and duration (that...
by mac808
Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Kostohryz right?
Replies: 30
Views: 2680

Re: Another massive decline is coming - Sounds logical or ‘nobody knows nothing’ ?

The Fed kicked the can a few hundred feet down the road. It may take us awhile to locate it.
by mac808
Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 76646

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Now assume that what you saw turns out to be temporary - like the tourist town in the off season, or shutting down to go on vacation together for a few weeks. Would that change your view at all? I'm playing Devil's advocate here, but I'm still unable to reconcile 'shutting down for a while' with '2/3 of business value wiped out around the entire world' (which would seem to align with your estimation of a 60%+ level crash). This post was perfectly timed. This is exactly why the market has yet to bottom out. There is no way, absolutely no way that we will be returning to normal in a few weeks. Italy started a national lockdown 17 days ago and their death/day has not peaked. The USA has no national lockdown. We are nowhere near the peak. And,...
by mac808
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 22381
Views: 2120067

Re: New Bull Market!

I don't think we're trading on news of the virus any more. This is now about US Government stimulus and the Fed's willingness to intervene. "Good news is good news and bad news is good news [because it means more stimulus]." It dawned on me this morning that there is an Invisible Floor in the market. The US Government is not willing to let asset prices fall below certain levels, regardless of the underlying fundamentals. (I'll withhold judgment on whether they should, or not.) They learned from the GFC and wrote the blank check in record time, this time. There is no free lunch, so as the Fed increasingly pumps, that money will find its way somewhere, sort of how the inflation of the last decade hid in health care, education, hous...
by mac808
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 22381
Views: 2120067

Re: New Bull Market!

I don't think we're trading on news of the virus any more. This is now about US Government stimulus and the Fed's willingness to intervene. "Good news is good news and bad news is good news [because it means more stimulus]." It dawned on me this morning that there is an Invisible Floor in the market. The US Government is not willing to let asset prices fall below certain levels, regardless of the underlying fundamentals. (I'll withhold judgment on whether they should, or not.) They learned from the GFC and wrote the blank check in record time, this time. There is no free lunch, so as the Fed increasingly pumps, that money will find its way somewhere, sort of how the inflation of the last decade hid in health care, education, housi...
by mac808
Sun Feb 23, 2020 9:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Dow Futures down 426 for Monday 2/24/20. Buying anything today?
Replies: 155
Views: 17346

Re: Dow Futures down 426 for Monday 2/24/20. Buying anything today?

I'm watching re-infection rates in factories that are reopening this week. If they reopen only to have to close again a week later, then I fear we're headed much lower than a 400 point drop. If we go a few weeks without that happening, which is what I hope happens, then it could be a good chance to "buy the dip".
by mac808
Fri Jan 24, 2020 6:56 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Happy Birthday Taylor! 96 years young!
Replies: 139
Views: 8361

Re: Happy Birthday Taylor! 96 years young!

Happy Birthday! :sharebeer
by mac808
Fri Jan 03, 2020 11:02 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Suing An Airline In Small Claims
Replies: 38
Views: 5442

Re: Suing An Airline In Small Claims

lowkeytaco wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2020 10:54 pm - AA is likely to show up in court. If they do not, and you "win", you can get a court order saying they owe you. Collecting on that is a whole other burden. If I were you, I would just frame the order, call it a win, and then collect on insurance.
- Court is a burdensome and slow process. If you have the inclination and time, however, go for it!
With a valid court order in hand, wouldn't you just hire the sheriff to enforce it by impounding the nearest company property, e.g. an American Airlines plane at the nearest local airport? - the threat of which, of course, when made in person by the sheriff at the airport, would lead to AA handing you a check for the ordered amount.
by mac808
Thu Nov 14, 2019 6:42 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ally as a one stop shop
Replies: 35
Views: 6991

Re: Ally as a one stop shop

What does cash in an Ally brokerage account currently yield? I looked around their website but it wasn’t clear to me.
by mac808
Mon Aug 12, 2019 11:50 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are you a "solo ager?"
Replies: 133
Views: 22232

Re: Are you a "solo ager?"

I can't help but wonder about the untapped entrepreneurial opportunities here. I've spent enough time in nursing homes to know that past 85 your health and well-being is often totally entrusted to caregivers around you. Many of those caregivers treat it as just a job and are not emotionally invested in positive outcomes. Emotional investment and trust are hard problems to solve.
by mac808
Mon Aug 05, 2019 3:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Received Significant Raises in Salary and getting Jealousy from Close Colleagues/Friends
Replies: 48
Views: 5540

Re: Received Significant Raises in Salary and getting Jealousy from Close Colleagues/Friends

I hate to tell you but, it gets even worse as you climb higher up the ladder.

Keep the few friends who are genuinely happy for your success and do pick up the check for them from time to time.
by mac808
Mon Aug 05, 2019 12:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is our spending crazy?
Replies: 136
Views: 14407

Re: Is our spending crazy?

How much will a lower stress, presumably more sustainable job pay?
by mac808
Thu Aug 01, 2019 12:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bloomberg: Forget Tech, Medicine Still Pays More
Replies: 124
Views: 12675

Re: Bloomberg: Forget Tech, Medicine Still Pays More

Just to pile on, here are just a few non-FANG tech companies’ public disclosures of median employee compensation (as part of the CEO Pay Ratio rule): Twilio: 222k Workday: 188k Box: 181k Twitter: 173k Citrix: 170k Square: 155k Salesforce: 152k Remember, not every employee is an engineer (and not every employee is located in the US). If we assume the engineers are at the higher end of all staff pay, then it stands to reason that at all these companies the typical US-based engineer is making well over $200k. Holy cow, this must be a recent phenomenon. Those numbers are so much higher than they were when I looked into this seriously around 2010. Possible bubble? You could make a well-reasoned argument either way as to a bubble in tech. Person...
by mac808
Thu Aug 01, 2019 3:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bloomberg: Forget Tech, Medicine Still Pays More
Replies: 124
Views: 12675

Re: Bloomberg: Forget Tech, Medicine Still Pays More

I personally know someone VERY high up at Facebook. Not Zuckerberg but not far off. The jobs like you describe are rare and more competitive than getting into medical school. A lot of the positions are filled by PhDs. If you want one of those jobs right out of college, you better have personal connections, and you usually won't move up with just a bachelor's. Total compensation for a first year Facebook software engineer is in the low 100s. After a few years you can potentially move into the 200s. A computer science major, even one from MIT, will be sorely disappointed if they think they can earn $200k at 22 and $400k a few years later. They would have to really beat the odds and most likely have personal connections. While you CAN do it, ...
by mac808
Thu Aug 01, 2019 2:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bloomberg: Forget Tech, Medicine Still Pays More
Replies: 124
Views: 12675

Re: Bloomberg: Forget Tech, Medicine Still Pays More

Medicine is incredibly lucrative - no argument there. But the debate running through the thread was the upside in tech versus medicine, and some time between Facebook's IPO and the launch of Uber, tech just became even more lucrative. Things are always changing so what the landscape will look like 10 or 20 years from now is hard to predict. Would you happen to know the age distribution at hot tech companies? My impression is that most are youngish. Age discrimination is a big problem in tech. Whereas doctors in many specialties have great job security through their 70s should they want to work that long - maybe not in surgery - tech people fear for their jobs as soon as they reach their 50s. So earnings over a lifetime are higher for physi...
by mac808
Wed Jul 31, 2019 11:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bloomberg: Forget Tech, Medicine Still Pays More
Replies: 124
Views: 12675

Re: Bloomberg: Forget Tech, Medicine Still Pays More

My husband has a PhD during which he regularly worked 60+ hours a week and literally slept overnight in the lab at least once a week, did 7 years of post-docs, and now makes $130k after 5 years in a very high cost area albeit without student debt. Do you know what a 7th year post-doc at a major cancer center earns? $55k. Modern medicine wouldn't exist without the research they do. A Nobel Prize winner in chemistry, who has made major contributions to medicine, earns $218k as a biochemistry professor. Total income is around $300k with other sources of income (mostly speaking engagements and a high level book that sells few copies). For a Nobel Prize winner. My point is, even controlling for intellectual rigor, medicine is incredibly lucrati...
by mac808
Wed Jul 31, 2019 11:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bloomberg: Forget Tech, Medicine Still Pays More
Replies: 124
Views: 12675

Re: Bloomberg: Forget Tech, Medicine Still Pays More

Most medical specialties make between 200-300k after many more years of education and training. A software engineer can hit 200k with just a bachelors. There is some major overestimation of tech salaries. Most software engineers never hit $200k, and certainly not with only a bachelor's degree. The average software engineer, of all experience levels and all education levels, makes a bit more than $100k. The ones that earn more tend to be in very high cost of living areas. Lots of software engineers make $50-75k. There are very few software engineers in low cost areas making $200k whereas there are very few physicians in low cost areas making less than that. Indeed, physicians in those areas can make more than if they lived in a high cost co...
by mac808
Wed Jul 31, 2019 9:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bloomberg: Forget Tech, Medicine Still Pays More
Replies: 124
Views: 12675

Re: Bloomberg: Forget Tech, Medicine Still Pays More

I know plenty of physicians who went into medicine in order to make a lot of money. They treat it like a job and are probably happier and less susceptible to burn out than the naive idealists who think their mental model of the world at 22 will remain unchanged throughout a decade or two in real clinical practice. That's interesting, the happiest doctors I know are ones that are still all about the patients and not about the money: 1. A 80 something year old pediatrician who serves a poor population in a dangerous city and often provides free care to indigent immigrants, many of whom I suspect are illegal since I don't think they have Medicaid despite their low salary. He works insane hours because he has a sense of duty to serve anyone an...
by mac808
Wed Jul 31, 2019 3:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bloomberg: Forget Tech, Medicine Still Pays More
Replies: 124
Views: 12675

Re: Bloomberg: Forget Tech, Medicine Still Pays More

Another interesting difference between medicine and tech is the urban vs rural divide. In tech, in theory you can work remotely from anywhere, but to be doing the most interesting work and make the most money (>$1m/yr) you have to be in one of a few major cities. In medicine, it's the opposite - in those few major cities, there's such a glut of physicians that salaries are lower, whereas if you are willing to move to the boonies and work you will double or triple your income.
by mac808
Wed Jul 31, 2019 2:06 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bloomberg: Forget Tech, Medicine Still Pays More
Replies: 124
Views: 12675

Re: Bloomberg: Forget Tech, Medicine Still Pays More

I know plenty of physicians who went into medicine in order to make a lot of money. They treat it like a job and are probably happier and less susceptible to burn out than the naive idealists who think their mental model of the world at 22 will remain unchanged throughout a decade or two in real clinical practice.

That said, given equal aptitude, there’s far more money in tech and it’s a far more enjoyable lifestyle. Not even a close call.
by mac808
Mon Jul 22, 2019 11:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying a house - bay area
Replies: 102
Views: 8618

Re: Buying a house - bay area

I wouldn't worry too much about prices rising faster out of reach - they're already at a breaking point, as somewhat evidenced by your personal situation. People will say there is an endless stream of IPO gazillionaires supporting prices but many of my UHNW friends currently living in SF plan to leave as soon as they get liquidity and/or stop working. On the other hand, you've got little kids and just need a home for them to grow up in - so I'm sympathetic to the quality of life argument and that may justify getting into a home even if it's not the most optimized financial move. If you had a great long-term rental you were happy with, I might stay put. Otherwise, I think it's OK to buy. I'm assuming your FANG-like RSUs are relatively stable...
by mac808
Mon Jun 24, 2019 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SPY buyback adjusted yield
Replies: 10
Views: 1191

SPY buyback adjusted yield

Does anyone have a good place to look for "buyback adjusted" yield for SPY? This would be dividend yield plus share buybacks, minus net debt issuance, maybe plus major acquisition spend. Impossible to get it perfect because you get into subjective factors at a certain point. As share buybacks become more popular I've been researching better ways to track the actual annual "value created" from this index. Curious to hear how others think about this.
by mac808
Tue Jun 18, 2019 10:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Maternity and Paternity leave policies
Replies: 56
Views: 4628

Re: Maternity and Paternity leave policies

I get that. I just didn’t know this was really a thing extended to males. When my wife had our kids 13 and 15 years ago I was allowed to take the day off for the delivery. It never would have crossed my mind to ask for more time. No, you weren't allowed to take the day off for delivery. You could have taken 12 weeks off under FMLA (assuming your employer was big enough to be required to). I did so in 1997. I was a surgical resident. This would have delayed the completion of my training by 12 weeks. Seems like a natural consequence for having children, no? In the past, only women shared this burden. I would have not tolerated my husband only taking one day off. I expect him to help with night feedings etc. If he would only take one day off ...
by mac808
Sat Jun 15, 2019 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How safe are pensions in the U.S.?
Replies: 87
Views: 12021

Re: How safe are pensions in the U.S.?

State and local public pensions in the worst funded states are likely to be cut in the decades ahead. Even those that are "constitutionally protected" are likely to be impacted in a restructuring or bankruptcy process similar to what we see occurring in Puerto Rico right now. That's the bad news (for those involved). The good news is that the cuts needed aren't catastrophic. Detroit is a good case study. As another poster noted about Detroit, "the outcome for retirees was pensions cut by 4.5 percent, elimination of future cost-of-living adjustments and higher health-care expenses." I will add that I don't see this as an inherently partisan political issue but rather a fiscal issue stemming from poor leadership which has ...
by mac808
Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Retired at 35 and have no friends :(
Replies: 113
Views: 15840

Re: Retired at 35 and have no friends :(

I think this is a troll post. Generally, it's not possible for someone to be a Boglehead and retire at 35. Retiring at 35 requires a huge amount of money (millions) in a short period of time. Options for accuring that money include winning the lottery, buying individual stocks that are on a rocket trajectory, receiving a large inheritance, or the like. The Boglehead philosophy is a "get rich slowly" strategy of buying low fee index funds and let the wealth accumulate over time. While it works, it doesn't let someone who is 27 work for 8 years and then live off millions for the rest of their life. Just my opinion. It's not a troll sentiment - tech has made many (tens of thousands) young people independently wealthy very quickly an...
by mac808
Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Retired at 35 and have no friends :(
Replies: 113
Views: 15840

Re: Retired at 35 and have no friends :(

I think this is a troll post. Generally, it's not possible for someone to be a Boglehead and retire at 35. Retiring at 35 requires a huge amount of money (millions) in a short period of time. Options for accuring that money include winning the lottery, buying individual stocks that are on a rocket trajectory, receiving a large inheritance, or the like. The Boglehead philosophy is a "get rich slowly" strategy of buying low fee index funds and let the wealth accumulate over time. While it works, it doesn't let someone who is 27 work for 8 years and then live off millions for the rest of their life. Just my opinion. It's not a troll sentiment - tech has made many (tens of thousands) young people independently wealthy very quickly an...
by mac808
Thu Jun 13, 2019 11:31 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: DIY for UHNW
Replies: 63
Views: 9924

Re: DIY for UHNW

> Does this allocation look reasonable, and do you think I'm capable of managing ~$30M by myself? Yes and Yes. I'm in the same boat and the majority of my assets are in a 5 fund lazy portfolio listed in the wiki. A minority are in angel investments that I make for fun. I previously owned rental real estate but sold everything and bought a REIT fund to reduce headache. There's not much need to diverge from a lazy portfolio until you are in the multiple hundreds of millions and direct ownership of private equity becomes meaningful. Of course, UHNW money managers will disagree so prepare for an onslaught of highly polished salespeople if your contact info leaks out to certain mailing lists. The most important thing you need is the discipline n...
by mac808
Thu Jun 13, 2019 11:24 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Retired at 35 and have no friends :(
Replies: 113
Views: 15840

Re: Retired at 35 and have no friends :(

I think this is a troll post. Generally, it's not possible for someone to be a Boglehead and retire at 35. Retiring at 35 requires a huge amount of money (millions) in a short period of time. Options for accuring that money include winning the lottery, buying individual stocks that are on a rocket trajectory, receiving a large inheritance, or the like. The Boglehead philosophy is a "get rich slowly" strategy of buying low fee index funds and let the wealth accumulate over time. While it works, it doesn't let someone who is 27 work for 8 years and then live off millions for the rest of their life. Just my opinion. It's not a troll sentiment - tech has made many (tens of thousands) young people independently wealthy very quickly an...
by mac808
Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:25 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to preserve $10M+ in wealth owned by unsophisticated people?
Replies: 82
Views: 17353

Re: How to preserve $10M+ in wealth owned by unsophisticated people?

Why just preservation? Why not take the current assets and double or triple them over the next one or two decades? The first ten million is the hardest!
by mac808
Sat Jun 08, 2019 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market up because of rate cut expectation - why ?
Replies: 21
Views: 3418

Re: Market up because of rate cut expectation - why ?

When cash earns the same risk free return as SPY dividend, some investors feel less urgency to invest excess capital. If cash returns 0% then there is more psychological pressure to put that cash to work somewhere.

Personally I believe the Fed may have taken on an unspoken mandate to support asset prices given how heavily reliant every State's pension infrastructure is on market returns. A 30% decline and plateau would bankrupt about half the States, forcing them to cut pensions and raise taxes, which could start a vicious downward spiral. "Good news is good news and bad news is good news" - what a time to be alive!
by mac808
Thu Jun 06, 2019 12:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thank you, Taylor Larimore!
Replies: 49
Views: 8563

Re: Thank you, Taylor Larimore!

Thank you Taylor! You continue to make an impact; your posts (whether financial advice or just stories from the past) were very influential on me when I first stumbled upon the forum, and continue to be something I look forward to.
by mac808
Sun Jun 02, 2019 10:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What do business pros wear on redeye Business Class flights
Replies: 50
Views: 8642

Re: What do business pros wear on redeye Business Class flights

10 hours or less, jeans, T-shirt and hoodie. A balance between comfort and not having to change as soon as I land.

Greater than 10 hours, sweatpants and hoodie maximized for comfort. In first class, the airline will usually provide PJs and the butler will make up your bed while you change in the bathroom. Not joking.
by mac808
Sun Jun 02, 2019 5:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2% withdrawal rate
Replies: 407
Views: 45826

Re: 2% withdrawal rate

I use a 2.5% swr in my calculations. But due to good fortune I way overshot my original number and so it was easy for me to work backwards from wealth to income in a more conservative way. I think a lot of the global and domestic demographic trends portend slower growth in the future. Lots of trends and technologies on the horizon likely to apply margin pressure to F500 and be deflationary in general. Hence a lower swr. Also important to note that I want to leave a large estate for my kids. If not for that desire, I’m sure I could annuitze close to 4%.
by mac808
Sat Jun 01, 2019 2:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: For those who earn $500k+ per year. How'd you do that?
Replies: 369
Views: 59852

Re: For those who earn $500k+ per year. How'd you do that?

I found out early on that working for myself was best. In 1974 started a manufacturers rep business. Repped for 14 companies calling on hardware stores in 5 states. No salary, straight commission. Sold in 1979 making 35k a month. “Retired” for 3 years and joined a fancy country club and played golf. Started working as a realtor in 1984 and stayed for 31 years. Quickly got to 250k a year and best year was over 700k. Averaged about 400k. Got out in 2010 started a small retail business that ballooned into a huge business with a partner and have 70 employees which drives me nuts. He runs day to day, and I might start another because it’s very profitable. Great thread! It seems like the move to real estate was a "step down" financiall...
by mac808
Fri May 31, 2019 4:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: For those who earn $500k+ per year. How'd you do that?
Replies: 369
Views: 59852

Re: For those who earn $500k+ per year. How'd you do that?

$1m/year as a director in tech mega corp. I worked 12 hours/day 6 days/week for a full decade to get to this point but the job now is a relatively relaxed 40-45 hours/week and minimal travel. Although I am always on call and expected to respond 24/7 to (infrequent) emergencies. And I add enough value just based off personal network alone to justify the salary. One of the benefits of working in tech where the growth is so rapid and revenue per employee is through the roof. The next level up from here is 2-3x comp but back to the old 70 hour/week schedule with substantial travel and stress, which I have no interest in.
by mac808
Thu May 30, 2019 11:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I afford this 2.3 million dollar home?
Replies: 273
Views: 34569

Re: Can I afford this 2.3 million dollar home?

Op didn't disclose profession, but my guess is that he is probably a neurosurgeon, or a orthopedic surgeon with a spine fellowship. Starting salaries for neurosurgeons straight out of residency training is in the realm of 700-800k as employed positions, and it isn't unheard of to be in the 1M+ range for less desirable places. Those are as stable jobs as they get with essentially guaranteed paycheck. His/her significant other is probably another physician who may be finishing residency or fellowship, which will be a large guaranteed bump in salary in the future when he/she finishes. That's my guess lol 😂 there is almost no other "profession" that guarantees these salaries. Lawyers are usually not making $500k a few years into part...
by mac808
Sat May 18, 2019 12:07 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: If you are already wealthy, what keeps you motivated?
Replies: 102
Views: 15351

Re: If you are already wealthy, what keeps you motivated?

I was motivated by money until my passive income hit a few hundred K annual. After that, it’s usually about ego. In my experience, the smaller your ego the more likely you are to retire young and take it easy.
by mac808
Sun Apr 07, 2019 2:44 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Those that have an "Anti-Boglehead" investment account, what are your "risky" plays?
Replies: 167
Views: 24691

Re: Those that have an "Anti-Boglehead" investment account, what are your "risky" plays?

I was an active angel investor in early stage tech startups between 2010-2015. I was in somewhat of a unique position to see a large amount of interesting deal flow. Collectively the remaining startups that haven't gone bust or been acquired is about 25% of my net worth today, half of that being represented by a single company that has done especially well. Overall it's been an entertaining endeavor and has provided a great financial return.
by mac808
Mon Feb 04, 2019 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%
Replies: 699
Views: 65115

Re: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%

I now have satisfied the 4% rule. It seems that we need to work on the 3% rule. In a few years, I am afraid that someone will be talking about a 2% rule. We can work until we are dead, which does not need any rule. Even though I am a perennial member of the OMY club I am somewhere between terrified and flummoxed by these threads. Throw in concerns about LTC and you can start feeling like the concept of retirement is impractical for anyone without an 8 digit portfolio. Seriously, what are the odds of being alive after 30 years into retirement for most people? I think much of this debate is fueled by younger retirees (in their 40s) and/or those who don't want to spend down their portfolios in order to leave substantial inheritances to their ...
by mac808
Mon Feb 04, 2019 1:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%
Replies: 699
Views: 65115

Re: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%

The main reason I worry about future returns being worse than expected relative to past performance is population growth, which is slowly considerably in all first and second world countries around the world. Productivity will continue to increase thanks to tech and automation, but nobody is really sure what economic growth looks like in a world where there are fewer consumers today than there were yesterday. Japan is already there so we can wait and see how the next decade pans out for them, I guess.
by mac808
Thu Jan 31, 2019 12:38 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Lawyer looking for retirement strategy, etc. advice
Replies: 15
Views: 2022

Re: Lawyer looking for retirement strategy, etc. advice

Savings seems a little light relative to implied expenses (saving just $50k pre-tax on $250k annual salary?), unless the bulk has been going to kids educations which would cease prior to 62. Property taxes are high in NH I believe - on the primary home and vacation home together, they could be approaching $30k/year. I'd recommend starting to look at what post-retirement expenses would be in different scenarios (staying put, moving down to Florida, etc). This might lead to more motivation to save additional taxable dollars now, which could only help.
by mac808
Sat Jan 26, 2019 1:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Need advice coming out of bad situation
Replies: 49
Views: 4805

Re: Need advice coming out of bad situation

Your salary is really low for an ambitious, hard working engineer 6+ years out of a top university (assuming you mean top 10-15). Usually the "ceilings" we see are perceived, not real; in other words, there are always ways to get creative and increase income. If I were you, I'd focus your energy in that direction.
by mac808
Wed Jan 09, 2019 11:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fidelity Unlimited 2% Cash back
Replies: 38
Views: 2973

Re: Fidelity Unlimited 2% Cash back

Fidelity outsources administration of the actual credit card to a separate firm. I've had a series of terrible (very un-Fidelity-like) customer service experiences as a result. I switched to the BOA cash back card instead.
by mac808
Wed Jan 09, 2019 1:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is buying a $700K first home crazy?
Replies: 70
Views: 9712

Re: Is buying a $700K first home crazy?

Your question comes down 100% to stability of income. If you are two pediatricians, then you're more than fine. If you are two marketing professionals who perceive strong job security because you work for a stable company - things can change fast. Just be very honest with yourselves about that.
by mac808
Mon Oct 15, 2018 9:36 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Corporate politics/culture
Replies: 43
Views: 4867

Re: Corporate politics/culture

Part of the value of a good CEO is their personal network of other executives whom they can recruit to come work for them.

Expect 50% of current senior level executives to be replaced within 12 months, and then it will have a trickle down effect from there, with the new C levels and SVPs replacing the majority of their own staffs, and so on and so forth. Only you can know whether your relationships are strong enough to provide some stability in the likely event of rapid turnover.

I second the previous advice - it's not a bad time to look around and see what else is available, while the hiring market is still hot.