Search found 518 matches

by mac808
Mon Apr 06, 2020 9:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Predictions for the next 6 months (spoiler: interest rates will rise)
Replies: 46
Views: 2832

Re: Predictions for the next 6 months (spoiler: interest rates will rise)

Rates will need to rise to slow down inflation. I see inflation in just about every scenario. If there is no inflation risk at all we are going to experience a serious multiyear recession that will crash the stock market regardless. I happen to think we will return to a level of normalcy by the lat...
by mac808
Thu Apr 02, 2020 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the coming pain really "priced in"?
Replies: 201
Views: 19348

Re: Is the coming pain really "priced in"?

The economy will get worse, perhaps much worse over the next few quarters. The worse it gets, the more money the Fed will print. The more money the Fed prints, the more inflation will be created. Over the past decade inflation has been “hidden” in sectors like health care, education, housing, and f...
by mac808
Thu Apr 02, 2020 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the coming pain really "priced in"?
Replies: 201
Views: 19348

Re: Is the coming pain really "priced in"?

The more money the Fed prints, the more inflation will be created This is not a fact but many seem to treat it as such Deflationary aspects of the economy could balance it out Result could be no or low inflation I agree but there's some nuance to this. There is deflation in most consumer goods, no ...
by mac808
Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the coming pain really "priced in"?
Replies: 201
Views: 19348

Re: Is the coming pain really "priced in"?

Listen to this guy, Dr. Price. He is the front line Doctor at NY top hospital in charge of Covid 19. So unlike us, he actually knows what he is talking about. The video is lengthy (about an hour). The relevant part for this discussion: Dr. Price says the current reaction and death rate are so viole...
by mac808
Wed Apr 01, 2020 3:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the coming pain really "priced in"?
Replies: 201
Views: 19348

Re: Is the coming pain really "priced in"?

The economy will get worse, perhaps much worse over the next few quarters. The worse it gets, the more money the Fed will print. The more money the Fed prints, the more inflation will be created. Over the past decade inflation has been “hidden” in sectors like health care, education, housing, and fi...
by mac808
Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Kostohryz right?
Replies: 30
Views: 2332

Re: Another massive decline is coming - Sounds logical or ‘nobody knows nothing’ ?

The Fed kicked the can a few hundred feet down the road. It may take us awhile to locate it.
by mac808
Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 64322

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Now assume that what you saw turns out to be temporary - like the tourist town in the off season, or shutting down to go on vacation together for a few weeks. Would that change your view at all? I'm playing Devil's advocate here, but I'm still unable to reconcile 'shutting down for a while' with '2...
by mac808
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7463
Views: 607168

Re: New Bull Market!

I don't think we're trading on news of the virus any more. This is now about US Government stimulus and the Fed's willingness to intervene. "Good news is good news and bad news is good news [because it means more stimulus]." It dawned on me this morning that there is an Invisible Floor in the marke...
by mac808
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7463
Views: 607168

Re: New Bull Market!

I don't think we're trading on news of the virus any more. This is now about US Government stimulus and the Fed's willingness to intervene. "Good news is good news and bad news is good news [because it means more stimulus]." It dawned on me this morning that there is an Invisible Floor in the market...
by mac808
Sun Feb 23, 2020 10:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Dow Futures down 426 for Monday 2/24/20. Buying anything today?
Replies: 155
Views: 15081

Re: Dow Futures down 426 for Monday 2/24/20. Buying anything today?

I'm watching re-infection rates in factories that are reopening this week. If they reopen only to have to close again a week later, then I fear we're headed much lower than a 400 point drop. If we go a few weeks without that happening, which is what I hope happens, then it could be a good chance to ...
by mac808
Fri Jan 24, 2020 7:56 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Happy Birthday Taylor! 96 years young!
Replies: 139
Views: 4289

Re: Happy Birthday Taylor! 96 years young!

Happy Birthday! :sharebeer
by mac808
Sat Jan 04, 2020 12:02 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Suing An Airline In Small Claims
Replies: 38
Views: 4853

Re: Suing An Airline In Small Claims

- AA is likely to show up in court. If they do not, and you "win", you can get a court order saying they owe you. Collecting on that is a whole other burden. If I were you, I would just frame the order, call it a win, and then collect on insurance. - Court is a burdensome and slow process. If you h...
by mac808
Thu Nov 14, 2019 7:42 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ally as a one stop shop
Replies: 31
Views: 3978

Re: Ally as a one stop shop

What does cash in an Ally brokerage account currently yield? I looked around their website but it wasn’t clear to me.
by mac808
Mon Aug 12, 2019 11:50 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are you a "solo ager?"
Replies: 133
Views: 19674

Re: Are you a "solo ager?"

I can't help but wonder about the untapped entrepreneurial opportunities here. I've spent enough time in nursing homes to know that past 85 your health and well-being is often totally entrusted to caregivers around you. Many of those caregivers treat it as just a job and are not emotionally invested...
by mac808
Mon Aug 05, 2019 3:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Received Significant Raises in Salary and getting Jealousy from Close Colleagues/Friends
Replies: 48
Views: 4899

Re: Received Significant Raises in Salary and getting Jealousy from Close Colleagues/Friends

I hate to tell you but, it gets even worse as you climb higher up the ladder.

Keep the few friends who are genuinely happy for your success and do pick up the check for them from time to time.
by mac808
Mon Aug 05, 2019 12:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is our spending crazy?
Replies: 136
Views: 12703

Re: Is our spending crazy?

How much will a lower stress, presumably more sustainable job pay?
by mac808
Thu Aug 01, 2019 12:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bloomberg: Forget Tech, Medicine Still Pays More
Replies: 124
Views: 10285

Re: Bloomberg: Forget Tech, Medicine Still Pays More

Just to pile on, here are just a few non-FANG tech companies’ public disclosures of median employee compensation (as part of the CEO Pay Ratio rule): Twilio: 222k Workday: 188k Box: 181k Twitter: 173k Citrix: 170k Square: 155k Salesforce: 152k Remember, not every employee is an engineer (and not ev...
by mac808
Thu Aug 01, 2019 3:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bloomberg: Forget Tech, Medicine Still Pays More
Replies: 124
Views: 10285

Re: Bloomberg: Forget Tech, Medicine Still Pays More

I personally know someone VERY high up at Facebook. Not Zuckerberg but not far off. The jobs like you describe are rare and more competitive than getting into medical school. A lot of the positions are filled by PhDs. If you want one of those jobs right out of college, you better have personal conn...
by mac808
Thu Aug 01, 2019 2:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bloomberg: Forget Tech, Medicine Still Pays More
Replies: 124
Views: 10285

Re: Bloomberg: Forget Tech, Medicine Still Pays More

Medicine is incredibly lucrative - no argument there. But the debate running through the thread was the upside in tech versus medicine, and some time between Facebook's IPO and the launch of Uber, tech just became even more lucrative. Things are always changing so what the landscape will look like ...
by mac808
Wed Jul 31, 2019 11:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bloomberg: Forget Tech, Medicine Still Pays More
Replies: 124
Views: 10285

Re: Bloomberg: Forget Tech, Medicine Still Pays More

My husband has a PhD during which he regularly worked 60+ hours a week and literally slept overnight in the lab at least once a week, did 7 years of post-docs, and now makes $130k after 5 years in a very high cost area albeit without student debt. Do you know what a 7th year post-doc at a major can...
by mac808
Wed Jul 31, 2019 11:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bloomberg: Forget Tech, Medicine Still Pays More
Replies: 124
Views: 10285

Re: Bloomberg: Forget Tech, Medicine Still Pays More

Most medical specialties make between 200-300k after many more years of education and training. A software engineer can hit 200k with just a bachelors. There is some major overestimation of tech salaries. Most software engineers never hit $200k, and certainly not with only a bachelor's degree. The ...
by mac808
Wed Jul 31, 2019 9:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bloomberg: Forget Tech, Medicine Still Pays More
Replies: 124
Views: 10285

Re: Bloomberg: Forget Tech, Medicine Still Pays More

I know plenty of physicians who went into medicine in order to make a lot of money. They treat it like a job and are probably happier and less susceptible to burn out than the naive idealists who think their mental model of the world at 22 will remain unchanged throughout a decade or two in real cl...
by mac808
Wed Jul 31, 2019 3:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bloomberg: Forget Tech, Medicine Still Pays More
Replies: 124
Views: 10285

Re: Bloomberg: Forget Tech, Medicine Still Pays More

Another interesting difference between medicine and tech is the urban vs rural divide. In tech, in theory you can work remotely from anywhere, but to be doing the most interesting work and make the most money (>$1m/yr) you have to be in one of a few major cities. In medicine, it's the opposite - in ...
by mac808
Wed Jul 31, 2019 2:06 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bloomberg: Forget Tech, Medicine Still Pays More
Replies: 124
Views: 10285

Re: Bloomberg: Forget Tech, Medicine Still Pays More

I know plenty of physicians who went into medicine in order to make a lot of money. They treat it like a job and are probably happier and less susceptible to burn out than the naive idealists who think their mental model of the world at 22 will remain unchanged throughout a decade or two in real cli...
by mac808
Mon Jul 22, 2019 11:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying a house - bay area
Replies: 102
Views: 7282

Re: Buying a house - bay area

I wouldn't worry too much about prices rising faster out of reach - they're already at a breaking point, as somewhat evidenced by your personal situation. People will say there is an endless stream of IPO gazillionaires supporting prices but many of my UHNW friends currently living in SF plan to lea...
by mac808
Mon Jun 24, 2019 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SPY buyback adjusted yield
Replies: 10
Views: 935

SPY buyback adjusted yield

Does anyone have a good place to look for "buyback adjusted" yield for SPY? This would be dividend yield plus share buybacks, minus net debt issuance, maybe plus major acquisition spend. Impossible to get it perfect because you get into subjective factors at a certain point. As share buybacks become...
by mac808
Tue Jun 18, 2019 10:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Maternity and Paternity leave policies
Replies: 56
Views: 3824

Re: Maternity and Paternity leave policies

I get that. I just didn’t know this was really a thing extended to males. When my wife had our kids 13 and 15 years ago I was allowed to take the day off for the delivery. It never would have crossed my mind to ask for more time. No, you weren't allowed to take the day off for delivery. You could h...
by mac808
Sat Jun 15, 2019 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How safe are pensions in the U.S.?
Replies: 87
Views: 10491

Re: How safe are pensions in the U.S.?

State and local public pensions in the worst funded states are likely to be cut in the decades ahead. Even those that are "constitutionally protected" are likely to be impacted in a restructuring or bankruptcy process similar to what we see occurring in Puerto Rico right now. That's the bad news (fo...
by mac808
Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Retired at 35 and have no friends :(
Replies: 113
Views: 12671

Re: Retired at 35 and have no friends :(

I think this is a troll post. Generally, it's not possible for someone to be a Boglehead and retire at 35. Retiring at 35 requires a huge amount of money (millions) in a short period of time. Options for accuring that money include winning the lottery, buying individual stocks that are on a rocket ...
by mac808
Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Retired at 35 and have no friends :(
Replies: 113
Views: 12671

Re: Retired at 35 and have no friends :(

I think this is a troll post. Generally, it's not possible for someone to be a Boglehead and retire at 35. Retiring at 35 requires a huge amount of money (millions) in a short period of time. Options for accuring that money include winning the lottery, buying individual stocks that are on a rocket ...
by mac808
Thu Jun 13, 2019 11:31 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: DIY for UHNW
Replies: 63
Views: 8376

Re: DIY for UHNW

> Does this allocation look reasonable, and do you think I'm capable of managing ~$30M by myself? Yes and Yes. I'm in the same boat and the majority of my assets are in a 5 fund lazy portfolio listed in the wiki. A minority are in angel investments that I make for fun. I previously owned rental real...
by mac808
Thu Jun 13, 2019 11:24 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Retired at 35 and have no friends :(
Replies: 113
Views: 12671

Re: Retired at 35 and have no friends :(

I think this is a troll post. Generally, it's not possible for someone to be a Boglehead and retire at 35. Retiring at 35 requires a huge amount of money (millions) in a short period of time. Options for accuring that money include winning the lottery, buying individual stocks that are on a rocket ...
by mac808
Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:25 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to preserve $10M+ in wealth owned by unsophisticated people?
Replies: 82
Views: 15835

Re: How to preserve $10M+ in wealth owned by unsophisticated people?

Why just preservation? Why not take the current assets and double or triple them over the next one or two decades? The first ten million is the hardest!
by mac808
Sat Jun 08, 2019 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market up because of rate cut expectation - why ?
Replies: 21
Views: 3141

Re: Market up because of rate cut expectation - why ?

When cash earns the same risk free return as SPY dividend, some investors feel less urgency to invest excess capital. If cash returns 0% then there is more psychological pressure to put that cash to work somewhere. Personally I believe the Fed may have taken on an unspoken mandate to support asset p...
by mac808
Thu Jun 06, 2019 12:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thank you, Taylor Larimore!
Replies: 49
Views: 6839

Re: Thank you, Taylor Larimore!

Thank you Taylor! You continue to make an impact; your posts (whether financial advice or just stories from the past) were very influential on me when I first stumbled upon the forum, and continue to be something I look forward to.
by mac808
Sun Jun 02, 2019 10:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What do business pros wear on redeye Business Class flights
Replies: 50
Views: 7081

Re: What do business pros wear on redeye Business Class flights

10 hours or less, jeans, T-shirt and hoodie. A balance between comfort and not having to change as soon as I land. Greater than 10 hours, sweatpants and hoodie maximized for comfort. In first class, the airline will usually provide PJs and the butler will make up your bed while you change in the bat...
by mac808
Sun Jun 02, 2019 5:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2% withdrawal rate
Replies: 182
Views: 14874

Re: 2% withdrawal rate

I use a 2.5% swr in my calculations. But due to good fortune I way overshot my original number and so it was easy for me to work backwards from wealth to income in a more conservative way. I think a lot of the global and domestic demographic trends portend slower growth in the future. Lots of trends...
by mac808
Sat Jun 01, 2019 2:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: For those who earn $500k+ per year. How'd you do that?
Replies: 369
Views: 42793

Re: For those who earn $500k+ per year. How'd you do that?

I found out early on that working for myself was best. In 1974 started a manufacturers rep business. Repped for 14 companies calling on hardware stores in 5 states. No salary, straight commission. Sold in 1979 making 35k a month. “Retired” for 3 years and joined a fancy country club and played golf...
by mac808
Fri May 31, 2019 4:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: For those who earn $500k+ per year. How'd you do that?
Replies: 369
Views: 42793

Re: For those who earn $500k+ per year. How'd you do that?

$1m/year as a director in tech mega corp. I worked 12 hours/day 6 days/week for a full decade to get to this point but the job now is a relatively relaxed 40-45 hours/week and minimal travel. Although I am always on call and expected to respond 24/7 to (infrequent) emergencies. And I add enough valu...
by mac808
Thu May 30, 2019 11:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I afford this 2.3 million dollar home?
Replies: 273
Views: 29682

Re: Can I afford this 2.3 million dollar home?

Op didn't disclose profession, but my guess is that he is probably a neurosurgeon, or a orthopedic surgeon with a spine fellowship. Starting salaries for neurosurgeons straight out of residency training is in the realm of 700-800k as employed positions, and it isn't unheard of to be in the 1M+ rang...
by mac808
Sat May 18, 2019 12:07 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: If you are already wealthy, what keeps you motivated?
Replies: 102
Views: 13709

Re: If you are already wealthy, what keeps you motivated?

I was motivated by money until my passive income hit a few hundred K annual. After that, it’s usually about ego. In my experience, the smaller your ego the more likely you are to retire young and take it easy.
by mac808
Sun Apr 07, 2019 2:44 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Those that have an "Anti-Boglehead" investment account, what are your "risky" plays?
Replies: 167
Views: 20958

Re: Those that have an "Anti-Boglehead" investment account, what are your "risky" plays?

I was an active angel investor in early stage tech startups between 2010-2015. I was in somewhat of a unique position to see a large amount of interesting deal flow. Collectively the remaining startups that haven't gone bust or been acquired is about 25% of my net worth today, half of that being rep...
by mac808
Mon Feb 04, 2019 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%
Replies: 699
Views: 56946

Re: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%

I now have satisfied the 4% rule. It seems that we need to work on the 3% rule. In a few years, I am afraid that someone will be talking about a 2% rule. We can work until we are dead, which does not need any rule. Even though I am a perennial member of the OMY club I am somewhere between terrified...
by mac808
Mon Feb 04, 2019 2:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%
Replies: 699
Views: 56946

Re: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%

The main reason I worry about future returns being worse than expected relative to past performance is population growth, which is slowly considerably in all first and second world countries around the world. Productivity will continue to increase thanks to tech and automation, but nobody is really ...
by mac808
Thu Jan 31, 2019 1:38 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Lawyer looking for retirement strategy, etc. advice
Replies: 15
Views: 1745

Re: Lawyer looking for retirement strategy, etc. advice

Savings seems a little light relative to implied expenses (saving just $50k pre-tax on $250k annual salary?), unless the bulk has been going to kids educations which would cease prior to 62. Property taxes are high in NH I believe - on the primary home and vacation home together, they could be appro...
by mac808
Sat Jan 26, 2019 2:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Need advice coming out of bad situation
Replies: 49
Views: 4284

Re: Need advice coming out of bad situation

Your salary is really low for an ambitious, hard working engineer 6+ years out of a top university (assuming you mean top 10-15). Usually the "ceilings" we see are perceived, not real; in other words, there are always ways to get creative and increase income. If I were you, I'd focus your energy in ...
by mac808
Thu Jan 10, 2019 12:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fidelity Unlimited 2% Cash back
Replies: 38
Views: 2656

Re: Fidelity Unlimited 2% Cash back

Fidelity outsources administration of the actual credit card to a separate firm. I've had a series of terrible (very un-Fidelity-like) customer service experiences as a result. I switched to the BOA cash back card instead.
by mac808
Wed Jan 09, 2019 2:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is buying a $700K first home crazy?
Replies: 70
Views: 8191

Re: Is buying a $700K first home crazy?

Your question comes down 100% to stability of income. If you are two pediatricians, then you're more than fine. If you are two marketing professionals who perceive strong job security because you work for a stable company - things can change fast. Just be very honest with yourselves about that.
by mac808
Mon Oct 15, 2018 9:36 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Corporate politics/culture
Replies: 43
Views: 4343

Re: Corporate politics/culture

Part of the value of a good CEO is their personal network of other executives whom they can recruit to come work for them. Expect 50% of current senior level executives to be replaced within 12 months, and then it will have a trickle down effect from there, with the new C levels and SVPs replacing t...
by mac808
Sun Sep 02, 2018 12:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Cost of car ownership: 6.5 years of data in the SF bay area
Replies: 44
Views: 5644

Re: Cost of car ownership: 6.5 years of data in the SF bay area

So in cost per mileage terms, seems you were right around 50 cents per mile.

If rideshare was at this price or lower, would you give up car ownership and exclusively use their services instead?