You can believe that but its wrong.meco1999 wrote: ...I don't believe there's ever been a rally this big (35+%) after a bear market that wasn't the beginning of a new bull run. ...
Search found 79 matches
- Wed Jun 10, 2009 11:43 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: The new bull market is very convenient for me
- Replies: 28
- Views: 5102
- Wed Apr 22, 2009 6:54 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: More buy and hold bashing
- Replies: 10
- Views: 2159
Hi, I don't get the relationship between a newsletter pushing ETF's and the references to the "Death of Equities" article. First, the newsletter appears to be pushing ETF's, which are mostly equity based. Second, they are only saying buy and hold is dead, not equities. Third, marketers have always shamelessly promoted their products, and that's all this is. Fourth, the Death of Equities was a cover story of a major magazine. This is just an ad. I wonder how many cover articles were negative on stocks and then followed by a bearish market? I have seen countless references to the Death of Equities article in this forum recently. Someone please let me know when a major publication publishes a similar article ... which I'm sure will ...
- Tue Mar 17, 2009 7:44 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Question for market timers--Bear Market Bottom?
- Replies: 134
- Views: 24212
Well I still don't know where you got your data, but basically you're saying that EVERY study ever done of stock market returns is incorrect. You're saying that someone who started in 1979 and lived through the greatest bull market in history (although during his low earning years) made about the same amount of money as someone who invested in 4% CDs the entire time... That's pretty fantastical. I assume you've taken all your money out of the stock market and into the bank right now... Maybe I should do the same... rrosenkoetter, I am not attempting to refute anything. Average returns of 10% averaged with 4% results in 7%. The 50/50 bogler' still beats the 4% saver by a SIGNIFICANT margin. The real world dollar difference just isn't as lar...
- Tue Mar 17, 2009 11:44 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Question for market timers--Bear Market Bottom?
- Replies: 134
- Views: 24212
I see that you've done a lot of work here... I'm thinking you left out the dividends, and in the 80s, they were quite large (DOW was paying 6% in 1982 for instance) Hi again rrosenkoetter :) So I just downloaded the monthly data. I assumed that yahoo finance was accounting for dividends because it clearly states on the page ADJ CLOSE accounts for dividends and splits but that doesn't appear to be the case, probably because it is an index and doesn't have real dividends. I pulled the annual returns from the backtest-portfolio spreadsheet instead. That was an oversight on my part and I didn't mean to misrepresent. :) The salary has been adjusted to reflect the previous comment regarding a starting engineer in 1978 was earning $19k. 10% annua...
- Mon Mar 16, 2009 7:01 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Question for market timers--Bear Market Bottom?
- Replies: 134
- Views: 24212
Starting salary in 1979 =$30k I don't believe many people just starting out in the workforce earned anywhere near $30k in 1979. I started in mid-1978 at a major oil company with a Masters degree in structural engineering - with one of the highest starting salaries from the university I graduated from. A little less than $19k to start. A year later, even the petroleum engineers and geologists (typically the highest paid graduates in the oil industry) were starting at about $24k. Salary grows 6% annually until 1998 = $90.7k Salary grows 3% annually until 2008 = $122k That sounds reasonable, although some years - given promotions to supervisor or manager positions - could yield raises well above 6%. In the first 5 years of my career, due to m...
- Mon Mar 16, 2009 5:14 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Question for market timers--Bear Market Bottom?
- Replies: 134
- Views: 24212
rrosenkoetter Let me know how you want the variables changed specifically and I will try to accomodate you. I am postulating that the good diehard investor went into indexing in 1979 and has stuck to it religiously 50/50 the entire time in the sp500. At the begining of 2008 the 50/50 portfolio was $907k or an equivalent return of 6.4%. Half of $907k is $453.5k which lost $154k in 2008 so that 2009 starts below $800k. YTD in 2009 the portfolio is down around $40k. I am just compounding an income stream into the investments as presented. Purely saving (4% after tax) with no stocks results in $655k in 2008 and $706k in 2009($655x104%+$122k*20%). The savings only investor is over $706k and the 50/50 is down to $760k 2009YTD. In mind it is perf...
- Mon Mar 16, 2009 4:16 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Question for market timers--Bear Market Bottom?
- Replies: 134
- Views: 24212
rrosenkoetter Let me know how you want the variables changed specifically and I will try to accomodate you. I am postulating that the good diehard investor went into indexing in 1979 and has stuck to it religiously 50/50 the entire time in the sp500. At the begining of 2008 the 50/50 portfolio was $907k or an equivalent return of 6.4%. Half of $907k is $453.5k which lost $154k in 2008 so that 2009 starts below $800k. YTD in 2009 the portfolio is down around $40k. I am just compounding an income stream into the investments as presented. Purely saving (4% after tax) with no stocks results in $655k in 2008 and $706k in 2009($655x104%+$122k*20%). The savings only investor is over $706k and the 50/50 is down to $760k 2009YTD. In mind it is perfe...
- Mon Mar 16, 2009 3:16 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Question for market timers--Bear Market Bottom?
- Replies: 134
- Views: 24212
rrosenkoetter Assumptions. Starting salary in 1979 =$30k Salary grows 6% annually until 1998 = $90.7k Salary grows 3% annually until 2008 = $122k (I think that is a fair estimation of a respectable 30 year career) A conservative and reasonable 50/50 portfolio sp500/savings rebalanced annually A savings/investing rate equivalent to 20% after tax Savings interest rate 4%(bank/cds/bonds after tax) This 30 year career results in a portfolio of ~$800k begining of 2009. This equates to an equivalent interest rate just under 5% The average SP500 return was 9% over that time frame. The real return was under 5% within these investors lifetime. The principle paid into the investments was $435k which didn't even double. I think it is perfectly reasona...
- Mon Mar 16, 2009 11:45 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Question for market timers--Bear Market Bottom?
- Replies: 134
- Views: 24212
On Friday Nov 28 SP500 closed 896.24 Hi Bogleheads: This must be a difficult time for market-timers. The S&P 500 has rebounded 19 percent and investors put $10.4 billion into equity mutual fund. This compares to last week's 11-year low when investors pulled $19.5 billion out of funds. Buy or sell? Bogleheads stay-the-course and sleep well. Monday Dec 1st SP500 closed at 816.21(9% decline) :shock: Sell today(Nov 28) to take profits and expect a day or two of profit taking declines next week. The rally could continue after that. Today intraday of our 5 day rally we are at 770.96 and we get a similar anti-market timing post. Using the Anti-Smug Sentiment (A.S.S.) I think a very short term, small decline is in our immediate future. Rally to...
- Mon Jan 05, 2009 3:40 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: REGISTRATION FOR 2009 BOGLEHEADS CONTEST
- Replies: 296
- Views: 52759
- Fri Nov 28, 2008 5:42 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Nightmares for market timers
- Replies: 234
- Views: 46061
This isn't a nightmare. This is a dream for market-timers. You can make 2-3 years of earnings in less than a month.
Sell today to take profits and expect a day or two of profit taking declines next week. The rally could continue after that.
The worst for market-timing is a long steady bubble of growth. Any days out of the market result in an expected negative result and the tax implications promote LTCGs and punish the short term.
A roller coaster like this is great.
Sell today to take profits and expect a day or two of profit taking declines next week. The rally could continue after that.
The worst for market-timing is a long steady bubble of growth. Any days out of the market result in an expected negative result and the tax implications promote LTCGs and punish the short term.
A roller coaster like this is great.
- Sat Nov 22, 2008 1:29 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: What's your one big takeaway from the Crash of 2008?
- Replies: 380
- Views: 72745
The B&H fortress will be burned to the ground before salvation.cflannagan wrote:Pray tell, what works then in the current markets?gatorman wrote:Buy and hold doesn't work.
gatorman
Nothing. B&H will be rewarded.
Is there such a thing as a trading bubble? The only way to make money in this market is to trade on volatility and capture the immediate profit. B&H will always be waiting for you once you have turned a few profitable trades.
Lessons learned?
Most people should be invested in treasuries or CDs.
My risk tolerance is through the roof.
This is likely the greatest investing opportunity of my life.
- Fri Nov 07, 2008 3:48 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Stocks rise on bad news. Is this the bottom?
- Replies: 65
- Views: 11355
- Fri Nov 07, 2008 3:39 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Stocks rise on bad news. Is this the bottom?
- Replies: 65
- Views: 11355
- Tue Nov 04, 2008 3:03 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: gambling versus investing
- Replies: 69
- Views: 10500
What about the "investor" who buys a share of a Spanish Galleon which plans to set out for the New World to bring back a load of gold. The odds of the ship sinking, getting captured by pirates, etc., is thirty percent in which case she losses everything. Is this person gambling or investing? I'd say either or both, except that the spanish king allows this activity and so it's more like investing. Chris Ok. I don't disagree. Lets take two "investors" with our Spanish Galleon. Investor 'A' owns a share of the Galleon which is used to purchase supplies and hire crew. Gambler 'B' places a bet with an acquaintance that the Galleon will succeed. Both A and B stand to make money based on the same event. A is an investor and B ...
- Tue Nov 04, 2008 1:27 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: gambling versus investing
- Replies: 69
- Views: 10500
I think Heath came close. Those guys on the World Poker Tour who win multiple tournaments all have (rightfully) an expectation of a positive return, but most would admit they are "gambling". Therefore, I suggest that gambling and investing are the same except investing is expected to benefit society while gambling does not. That' s why gambling is illegal in most places while investing is not. Chris Interesting take but couldn't it be argued that the California State Lotto benefits schools and so is beneficial to society? What about the inherent element of pure randomness. Gambling involves absolute pure luck. You can increase the odds sometimes but ultimately your outcome is determined by the dice or the cards. Investing is not ...
- Tue Nov 04, 2008 10:52 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: gambling versus investing
- Replies: 69
- Views: 10500
Re: gambling versus investing
Bogleheads are gamblers, not investors. Anyone care to comment? I imagine a spirited discussion. Let's keep our eye on "critical thinking". Yes, investing is a subset of gambling. Although the broad definition of gambling is as you say, I think the societal definition includes the modifier that gambling produces an expected loss. Think casinos, betting on horses, lottery tickets, etc. Investing is one of the unusual forms of gambling that has a positive expected return. - DDB I would disagree. Imagine an at home card game. There is no rake and no expected loss. Given equally skilled players the expected return is 0. This is still gambling. Certain video poker machines actually have positive expected returns IF you play in specifi...
- Mon Oct 27, 2008 5:47 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: How do short etfs work? (proshares)
- Replies: 1
- Views: 1106
- Fri Oct 24, 2008 7:59 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: It appears it's not so easy to be a Boglehead
- Replies: 117
- Views: 23055
98% of the time I would agree that indexed funds with the lowest expenses possible is the best way and that was how I was allocated at the beginning of the year and how I will invest for most of my life.cflannagan wrote: Just one question: What elements of "the Boglehead way" do you apply in your investing there? I'm a bit confused because looking at that, about everything in it conflicts with the philosophy of this board.
But, why is it impossible to improve on this? LH asked Pilot what he traded and when because Pilot timed the market to huge advantage. Maybe we are all 'comically bad' at timing markets but with this level of volatility I think anyone could turn a quick profit.
- Fri Oct 24, 2008 1:47 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: It appears it's not so easy to be a Boglehead
- Replies: 117
- Views: 23055
what date did you sell all your stocks? what date did you put all the money back into the market? I know you aren't talking to me but. 10/23/2008 12:20 PM Sold SDS@$104.06 10/23/2008 10:58 AM Sold SLV@$9.75 10/17/2008 1:32 PM Bought SDS@$89.00 10/16/2008 3:57 PM Bought SLV@$9.60 10/16/2008 3:51 PM Sold URE@$11.88 10/16/2008 10:50 AM Bought URE@$10.80 10/15/2008 3:28 PM Sold SDS@$99.45 10/15/2008 10:31 AM Bought SDS@$93.69 10/13/2008 3:56 PM Sold 350DZZ@$32.25 09/26/2008 11:50 AM Bought DZZ@$28.52 08/28/2008 13:26:50 Sold AMD @ 6.191 08/28/2008 11:55:34 Sold DTO @ 33.0306 08/27/2008 12:24:25 Bought DTO @ 31.6794 07/08/2008 12:47:05 Bought AMD @ 5.4099 This is the entirety of trades with no editing or cherry picking. Most done with limit ord...
- Thu Oct 23, 2008 9:12 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: It appears it's not so easy to be a Boglehead
- Replies: 117
- Views: 23055
Glad you saved yourself some money and I agree with you completely. Being flexible and nimble has worked better than keeping the faith so far.Pilot wrote:Because I got out and saved my portfolio about 20% of a loss. I'm back in now. If we go down another 20% you can bet there are very few who won't be in trouble. It'll be 1929 all over again.
- Thu Oct 23, 2008 1:53 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Time is now: who can see the "obvious" in the mark
- Replies: 560
- Views: 115210
It is obvious that this isn't an '87 fast bear and so it is likely to be a 2-3 year bear. It is obvious that most every bear over corrects and that this market has not, yet. The market appears to anticipate deflation in TIPS and Gold etc. which probably won't help in the short term. In the stages of grief: Denial, Anger, Bargaining, Depression, Acceptance we are probably finishing up with Anger as a society. 60% peak to trough with at least one heartbreaking head fake in between. 2010 beginning of recovery. Gold $670, Oil $55. Real estate recovering in 2014. Tech stocks will lead the charge out of this one. Just for fun :-) It is also obvious that momentum is real and can be profitable. It also looks like some combination of equity valuatio...
- Fri Oct 10, 2008 3:33 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: How are you staying sane?
- Replies: 44
- Views: 8335
- Mon Oct 06, 2008 3:58 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: How Much Are You Down NOW?
- Replies: 108
- Views: 24832
- Tue Sep 16, 2008 10:14 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: What if buy and hold is not the way?
- Replies: 363
- Views: 64446
Buying individual stocks can be efficient. Assume a $10 fee and a $100k portfolio. Buy 20 stocks and your cost in the first year is $200 or 0.2%.
Maybe buy a double short oil etf as oil was downwards passing $130/barrel or buy a financial sector short etf as bank after bank crumbled. The kool-aid around here is strong but I don't see why an individual researching lightly couldn't piece together a decent portfolio which could capture index returns and add some alpha with respectably low fees.
Maybe buy a double short oil etf as oil was downwards passing $130/barrel or buy a financial sector short etf as bank after bank crumbled. The kool-aid around here is strong but I don't see why an individual researching lightly couldn't piece together a decent portfolio which could capture index returns and add some alpha with respectably low fees.
- Fri Aug 29, 2008 3:29 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: The above average investor?
- Replies: 43
- Views: 7272
Below average investor. Savings accounts, CDs, checking accounts. Getting killed by inflation and they don't understand or care. $101 next year is better than $100 today!
Average investor. Stocks/Bonds have returned money in the past. I should invest my money into stocks and bonds to try to grow my money!
Above average investor. 5% of the people control 99% of the wealth. These people do not invest the way the "average" investor does.
Performance doesn't matter. Index vs Active Fund doesn't matter. Average encompasses the entire middle to lower high class. Right now the below average investor is likely winning performance ytd. That investor is still below average in my book.
Average investor. Stocks/Bonds have returned money in the past. I should invest my money into stocks and bonds to try to grow my money!
Above average investor. 5% of the people control 99% of the wealth. These people do not invest the way the "average" investor does.
Performance doesn't matter. Index vs Active Fund doesn't matter. Average encompasses the entire middle to lower high class. Right now the below average investor is likely winning performance ytd. That investor is still below average in my book.
- Wed Aug 27, 2008 10:34 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Equity style rotation
- Replies: 550
- Views: 186049
- Wed Oct 24, 2007 3:56 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Was I a fool? Or were they fools? -- Just sharing.
- Replies: 27
- Views: 7730
Y'all are projecting your biases and experiences onto the commuters. They could be making money in the stock market. They could all have a core portfolio of Vanguard index funds and just use some of their other money to have fun in the stock market. They could also have skill and expertise in their trading. They could all be making more money than someone invested in only index funds and ETFs. You just don't know. This thread is disturbing to me because I see some of the same behavior in this forum that you saw on the train. You sound knowledgable and talk as if you have skill and expertise because you have decided to select index funds for investing. You give the impression that you win consistently. You have a system and this online site...
- Fri Oct 19, 2007 6:18 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Warren Buffet interview
- Replies: 57
- Views: 18315
Re: Another way to look at the income tax burden
http://www.allegromedia.com/sugi/taxes/ "An enormous percentage of taxes are payed by a minority of Americans: The Top 1% of taxpayers pay 29% of all taxes. The Top 5% of taxpayers pay 50% of all taxes. " Warren and his friends can always pay more in taxes if they feel guilty about their low tax brackets. Adrian anenu@tampabay.rr.com http://sociology.ucsc.edu/whorulesamerica/power/wealth.html Financial Wealth Top 1 percent Next 19 percent Bottom 80 percent 1983 42.9% 48.4% 8.7% 1989 46.9% 46.5% 6.6% 1992 45.6% 46.7% 7.7% 1995 47.2% 45.9% 7.0% 1998 47.3% 43.6% 9.1% 2001 39.7% 51.5% 8.8% The top 1% had somewhere between 30-50% of the wealth(depending on if you define financial or total) and pays 29% of all taxes in 1999. I have no ...
- Fri Oct 19, 2007 3:18 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: seeking feedback on retiree asset allocation
- Replies: 12
- Views: 2712
- Fri Oct 19, 2007 3:02 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Looking to build credit, the best route?
- Replies: 35
- Views: 8711
Nitsuj and Eljay :) I am looking around but I am just not convinced that "Payment History" does not include owing nothing and paying nothing. For example from transunion when I click on a card the information recorded is: TransUnion Past Due: $0 High Balance: $403 Terms: Limit: $24900 Payment: Opened: 04/19/2006 Reported: 10/02/2007 Responsibility: Individual Additionally the card reports that every month I have paid or am paying as agreed. There is no record of actual payments listed even though I use this card regularly. The report looks nearly identical to the cards that have never carried a balance and all list "Paid or paying as agreed" Payment History Account payment information on specific types of accounts (credi...
- Thu Oct 18, 2007 9:54 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Looking to build credit, the best route?
- Replies: 35
- Views: 8711
It would make sense if the credit scores actually accounted for normal and responsible use but they don't. A card that has never been used counts as much as a card that has normal revolving purchases. Not so. Payment history accounts for 35% of the score. No payment history, no 35% Looking at Transunions "Truecredit" report now. My cards that have never carried a balance report "Paid or paying as agreed" every single month. I could be mistaken but I firmly believe that the credit card company reports that you have paid to the credit agency even if you had $0 balance and didn't owe anything. The only time payment history will affect you is if you are late or miss a payment. Otherwise I believe that owing nothing is the e...
- Thu Oct 18, 2007 3:10 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Looking to build credit, the best route?
- Replies: 35
- Views: 8711
It seems to me that credit cards with no payment history are useless in building a credit history. You don't have to charge $500 a month on them, just put your gas purchases on it and then pay it in full monthly. It would make sense if the credit scores actually accounted for normal and responsible use but they don't. A card that has never been used counts as much as a card that has normal revolving purchases. I only suggest never using the cards because missing a payment is a score dropping blemish. You can build a good score into the 750s without actually purchasing anything on credit. Additionally, certain cards don't report the available credit line and instead report the "highest balance." CapOne last I checked does this and...
- Thu Oct 18, 2007 1:21 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Looking to build credit, the best route?
- Replies: 35
- Views: 8711
Get 2 or 3 credit cards with no annual fees NEVER use them. That will ensure you never miss a payment or have any bad fees. Every 6 months to 1 year call the card company and ask if they will increase your credit limit without doing a "hard check". A hard check is when they pull your credit score and the credit reports record how often your score is pulled. Oddly enough pulling your credit score drops the score slightly b/c it can mean you are seeking out additional credit which often signals financial distress. If you do that and just wait around a few years then the score will increase. Having a small balance on your card will provide no benefit for your long term credit score. DON'T use the cards if there is any chance at all o...
- Thu Oct 18, 2007 12:12 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Introducing the paradoxical portfolio
- Replies: 19
- Views: 4742
Not quite. My point -- and it's a long-established principle of portfolio construction -- is that combining uncorrelated asset classes enables one to capture much of each asset's upside while avoiding much of each asset's downside. In my experience authors typically illustrate this point with example portfolios that consist of some combination of a generic equity index (e.g., total US stock market or S&P 500) and a generic bond index, i.e., combining a higher risk asset class with a lower risk asset class. I think it's more compelling, and therefore more instructive, to show how the principle plays out in a portfolio consisting only of high risk asset classes. And it is really is more subtle and interesting than simply choosing the bes...
- Wed Oct 17, 2007 11:35 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Introducing the paradoxical portfolio
- Replies: 19
- Views: 4742
Ultimately if you just want a backtesting 3 fund champ you go
1/3 SCV
1/3 REITs
1/3 EM
downward SD of 6.89% better than the 7.08% "Paradoxical Portfolio"
18.19% Average return versus 16.62%.
$504,192 compared to $340,645 real.
Edit: Somehow managed to miss that somebody already pointed this one out :roll: sorry
Not being hypercritical but i think the point has been made frequently that backtesting should not be overly relied upon. EM has performed hugely in the last 35 years and can drive the over performance of many ports.
1/3 SCV
1/3 REITs
1/3 EM
downward SD of 6.89% better than the 7.08% "Paradoxical Portfolio"
18.19% Average return versus 16.62%.
$504,192 compared to $340,645 real.
Edit: Somehow managed to miss that somebody already pointed this one out :roll: sorry
Not being hypercritical but i think the point has been made frequently that backtesting should not be overly relied upon. EM has performed hugely in the last 35 years and can drive the over performance of many ports.
- Wed Oct 17, 2007 11:22 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Introducing the paradoxical portfolio
- Replies: 19
- Views: 4742
1/3 TSM
1/3 SCG
1/3 EM
from 1975-2006 in simba spreadsheet $386,994 real
The "Paradoxical" portfolio from 1975-2006 $296,914 real
Lots of words. If you want to minimize downside SD with 33% EM you can do a lot better than this. A few random 1/3 combos
1975-2006
1/3 EM
1/3 SCV
1/3 Long term bonds
$378,332 real
1975-2006
1/3 EM
1/3 REITs
1/3 Long term bonds
$323,469 real
1975-2006
1/3 EM
1/3 LCV
1/3 REITs
$550,576 real
1975-2006
1/3 EM
2/3 wellington balanced
$308,176 real
Beating CCF in 73-74 with this 1/3rd EM mixing isn't hard either. So... your point is that taking the highest performing asset class over the last 30 years is good.
1/3 SCG
1/3 EM
from 1975-2006 in simba spreadsheet $386,994 real
The "Paradoxical" portfolio from 1975-2006 $296,914 real
Lots of words. If you want to minimize downside SD with 33% EM you can do a lot better than this. A few random 1/3 combos
1975-2006
1/3 EM
1/3 SCV
1/3 Long term bonds
$378,332 real
1975-2006
1/3 EM
1/3 REITs
1/3 Long term bonds
$323,469 real
1975-2006
1/3 EM
1/3 LCV
1/3 REITs
$550,576 real
1975-2006
1/3 EM
2/3 wellington balanced
$308,176 real
Beating CCF in 73-74 with this 1/3rd EM mixing isn't hard either. So... your point is that taking the highest performing asset class over the last 30 years is good.
- Wed Oct 17, 2007 6:55 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Introducing the paradoxical portfolio
- Replies: 19
- Views: 4742
- Mon Oct 15, 2007 2:02 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Is adding International small-cap performance chasing?
- Replies: 28
- Views: 6869
- Mon Oct 15, 2007 10:25 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Emerging Markets
- Replies: 25
- Views: 6890
First of all everyone will say
"20% is too high" while ignoring your question
Then you will get a few differing replies about about "I wouldn't invest more now" and "Valuations are high".
The fund could drop, there could be a 20 year EM bear from war, recession, famine, disease, an energy crisis, who knows.
If you are going to do 20% for the long term and you will be contributing even while the fund is dropping then now is as good a time as any.
"20% is too high" while ignoring your question
Then you will get a few differing replies about about "I wouldn't invest more now" and "Valuations are high".
The fund could drop, there could be a 20 year EM bear from war, recession, famine, disease, an energy crisis, who knows.
If you are going to do 20% for the long term and you will be contributing even while the fund is dropping then now is as good a time as any.
- Thu Oct 11, 2007 4:31 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Ouch! Sold off my oil EFTs only to see them head upward.
- Replies: 24
- Views: 6469
I think the initial decision was to free yourself of the worry associated with holding volatile investments. The "what ifs" are supposed to stop now.
If you believed in oil as a long term investment then you wouldn't have sold, you just wanted to ride the wave up and try to sell before it broke. You made a big gain so just be thankfull that you didn't get stuck with a loss. No more buy/sell timing and stress. You made a good plan now all you have to do is stick with it.
If you believed in oil as a long term investment then you wouldn't have sold, you just wanted to ride the wave up and try to sell before it broke. You made a big gain so just be thankfull that you didn't get stuck with a loss. No more buy/sell timing and stress. You made a good plan now all you have to do is stick with it.
- Thu Oct 11, 2007 12:27 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Do you use 0% interest cash-advance to make money?
- Replies: 62
- Views: 18928
"not worth it" :) How much would it have to be "worth" to make it worth some effort? What is your bond/cash allocation now? Is it "worth it" to have that much sitting in bonds and cash then? I personally view the shenanigans as worth a 5% pay raise. Nominal effort and clear cut risks. On top of the arbitrage shenanigans there are the sign up bonus. So far American express has given me $375 worth in home depot gift cards. BofA has given me a $250 check. Chase has given me $70 in checks. Silly little amounts but then add a bit of interest and the satisfaction of taking from the CC companies and it is "worth it" to me. If you have a good credit score and income I would think $10,000 would make it "w...
- Wed Oct 10, 2007 6:50 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Do you use 0% interest cash-advance to make money?
- Replies: 62
- Views: 18928
I didn't answer because I haven't gotten in on the game ... yet. I don't have a large balance to transfer due to monthly payment. But I have an offer from BoA on my desk with a cash advance offer with $75 max fee. My plan was to write the check to myself and put in VG MM. Will this adversely affect my credit rating? What website to you recommend for the best howto without reading endless threads? thanks This will adversely affect your credit rating. Positive credit items: amount of credit availabe, age of credit, on time payments Negative credit items: High % of utilized credit, young credit, late payments To play it safe don't utilize more than 50% of any card's credit line. If you don't care about your score keep all cards below 90%. The...
- Thu Oct 04, 2007 5:12 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: How and why do you use credit cards.
- Replies: 106
- Views: 30331
Most stores that accept credit cards have factored in the credit card fee when determining price. A small % cut that the credit card company gets so the store can accept credit cards but this cut gets forwarded along to the consumers. When you use a rewards/cash back card you recover some/all of that. Some gas stations have seperate prices for cash and credit but for the most part a store can not do this.
I used to avoid credit b/c "debt is bad". Now I always use plastic. 5% back can really add up.
I used to avoid credit b/c "debt is bad". Now I always use plastic. 5% back can really add up.
- Wed Oct 03, 2007 11:34 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Cramer: "Don’t you dare buy a home now, you will lose
- Replies: 66
- Views: 21078
I wish this housing bubble (Palo Alto, CA area) would hurry up and pop, I am tired of waiting for prices to drop. Unfortunately, there is still too much cash here and the population is still growing. We need a good earthquake so we can have prices return to the normal. The wealthy neighborhoods will be last to feel it. This is true here in LA the same as it is in the Bay Area. The high end homes are still moving but the signs are starting to creep in on them too. You are still in the bubble mentality "prices can only go up because this area is so nice and everyone is making $600,000 per year!" They will come down, either through real price drops or through stagnant prices with inflation. Palo Alto is sort of nice but it doesn't h...
- Wed Oct 03, 2007 12:25 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Cramer: "Don’t you dare buy a home now, you will lose
- Replies: 66
- Views: 21078
Real Estate prices depend a lot on the local market , amount of build-able land, commute-distance/gas-price and jobs/income. In the Menlo Park, Palo Alto, Los Altos area, the $1M to $2M or more house prices are fueled by cash from stock options from companies like Google, Ebay, Youtube, Rambus, Yahoo, and many other startups. Average overbid house prices in Palo Alto & Los Altos for Sept was 5.3% & 5.2%. These are mostly houses build in the 1950s. http://www.julianalee.com/reinfo/sold-PA.htm http://www.julianalee.com/reinfo/sold-LA.htm One size fits all advice is usually wrong. Actually Palo Alto and surrounding are in the bubble too. To think otherwise is to completely ignore the historic relationships between household income and...
- Mon Oct 01, 2007 3:11 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: wow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1
- Replies: 43
- Views: 14637
Re: wow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1
Indeed, how could we ever make more money if the market were to stay over 14,000 :roll:watchnerd wrote:Why would you hope it stays that way? That would be horrible. No more money to be made.curiousperson wrote:Dow over 14,000 today Oct 1st 2007
Hope it stays that way.
- Sat Sep 29, 2007 12:31 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Why would value stocks give higher overall returns?
- Replies: 27
- Views: 6846
http://quicktake.morningstar.com/StockN ... =valuation
Ford 10 yr valuations. 2005 book to price to market of 1.1. I would consider Ford a risky company right now.
S&P 500 averages 4.6
Ford 10 yr valuations. 2005 book to price to market of 1.1. I would consider Ford a risky company right now.
S&P 500 averages 4.6
- Thu Sep 27, 2007 1:43 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: How Badly Did I Screw Up?
- Replies: 22
- Views: 6632
- Wed Sep 26, 2007 3:25 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Does it pay to invest in a college education
- Replies: 41
- Views: 13675
Odd, I felt that high school was a complete waste of my time. 11-13 hour days inundated in meaningless busy work. The greatest challenge was staying awake through each class. Oh and how I miss all of the damn rules.bettega wrote:I thought my 4 years in college were a total waste of time because they stunted my growth both personally and academically. It was basically the academic equivalent of breaking big rocks into little ones so I could prove I was qualified to some med school admissions committee to accept me, nothing more. ...
Public school vs private school :roll: