Search found 107 matches

by NERD777
Fri May 04, 2012 8:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold is ready to fall
Replies: 157
Views: 12740

Re: Gold is ready to fall

Gold prices rest on fear. When the fear subsides, so will the gold prices. May the force be with you. May the force be with you too. This whole "fear" theme gets way overplayed. It is a red herring. The real issue is "Is the fear justified?" Or another question in regard to stoc...
by NERD777
Wed Apr 18, 2012 8:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: If I buy gold, what should I buy?
Replies: 50
Views: 8882

Re: If I buy gold, what should I buy?

Platinum is cheaper than gold now. I ordered a 1-ounce platinum Canadian Maple yesterday. (SSSS: I don't know if you are just being funny, but in case you aren't....) A word of advice, to you and those who have or are thinking of diversifying into precious metals: I like simplicity . So other than ...
by NERD777
Sat Apr 07, 2012 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: POLL: How do you consider gold?
Replies: 61
Views: 3871

Re: POLL: How do you consider gold?

I said "I do not own gold for other reasons" because I do consider gold to be pure speculation, but I don't consider it to be a commodity speculation. Most commodities have a direct use and a direct value as some kind of industrial input, and commodity speculation is the perverse conseque...
by NERD777
Fri Apr 06, 2012 3:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: POLL: How do you consider gold?
Replies: 61
Views: 3871

Re: POLL: How do you consider gold?

I said "I do not own gold for other reasons" because I do consider gold to be pure speculation, but I don't consider it to be a commodity speculation. Most commodities have a direct use and a direct value as some kind of industrial input, and commodity speculation is the perverse conseque...
by NERD777
Fri Apr 06, 2012 1:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: is inflation set to soar?
Replies: 32
Views: 3315

Re: is inflation set to soar?

Anybody that knows anything about inflation knows that it is nothing but politics and it is impossible to separate the two. Prices have risen, often abruptly, and fallen, and fluctuated, throughout modern history. Are you really making the case that politicians, and politicians alone, drive changes...
by NERD777
Fri Apr 06, 2012 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: is inflation set to soar?
Replies: 32
Views: 3315

Re: is inflation set to soar?

How inflation tracks global money supply can be a tricky issue. It, like everything else in this market, is less correlated over the short term and becomes higher correlated long term. What you can be sure of is the global money supply has been greatly increased via the central banks balance sheets...
by NERD777
Fri Apr 06, 2012 1:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will TIPS really protect you if inflation takes off?
Replies: 62
Views: 7786

Re: Will TIPS really protect you if inflation takes off?

I would much rather own a small allocation of PM's (5-10% max) and also own real estate (house+land) for this type of situation. Again I reiterate I'm not saying this will happen, I'm not in the we're all doomed crowd. But to say the chance is 0 is ignorant and silly in my opinion. My house has dec...
by NERD777
Thu Apr 05, 2012 10:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will TIPS really protect you if inflation takes off?
Replies: 62
Views: 7786

Re: Will TIPS really protect you if inflation takes off?

It's actually quite hilarious you think that is a troll post. I'm not saying this will happen, but it absolutely could, and for you to say there is no historical precedent for this is naive and ignorant. How does thousands of years of history sound? There is precedent for a meteor to hit the planet...
by NERD777
Thu Apr 05, 2012 4:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will TIPS really protect you if inflation takes off?
Replies: 62
Views: 7786

Re: Will TIPS really protect you if inflation takes off?

This is the easiest question ever asked on this forum. NO. If rampant inflation were to take place one of two things would happen. TIPS would be defaulted upon, and if they weren't you would be paid in worthless currency. People who believe TIPS are the investment to hedge against inflation will be...
by NERD777
Wed Apr 04, 2012 7:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: LCD TV
Replies: 27
Views: 2178

Re: LCD TV

I would also suggest LED. Samsung is top notch IMO, but you pay for it. Vizio is a great high quality lower cost brand that I would highly recommend. 42" 120Hz LED Vizio can be had at WalMart for $650.
by NERD777
Wed Apr 04, 2012 7:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: is inflation set to soar?
Replies: 32
Views: 3315

Re: is inflation set to soar?

How inflation tracks global money supply can be a tricky issue. It, like everything else in this market, is less correlated over the short term and becomes higher correlated long term. What you can be sure of is the global money supply has been greatly increased via the central banks balance sheets.
by NERD777
Mon Apr 02, 2012 10:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will TIPS really protect you if inflation takes off?
Replies: 62
Views: 7786

Re: Will TIPS really protect you if inflation takes off?

This is the easiest question ever asked on this forum. NO. If rampant inflation were to take place one of two things would happen. TIPS would be defaulted upon, and if they weren't you would be paid in worthless currency. People who believe TIPS are the investment to hedge against inflation will be ...
by NERD777
Sat Mar 31, 2012 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How would you advise the 3 MegaMillions winners?
Replies: 34
Views: 3125

Re: How would you advise the 3 MegaMillions winners?

I would advise them:
20% (VTSAX) Total Stock
20% (VTIAX) Total International
30% (VBIRX) Short Term Bond Index
10% (VWEAX) High Yield Bond Fund
15% (BWX) Unhedged Foreign Bond ETF
5% Precious Metals.

Somewhat similar to my own portfolio although a bit more conservative
by NERD777
Sun Mar 25, 2012 4:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why does anyone use American Express?
Replies: 146
Views: 281855

Re: Why does anyone use American Express?

To the people that have said their card was declined and it caused them shame or humiliation in public you really need to suck up your pride. I've had cards declined because of what was deemed as unusual activity and all it took was a phone call to clear it up. I actually found this a relief that th...
by NERD777
Sun Mar 25, 2012 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheadism goes mainstream?
Replies: 24
Views: 3295

Re: Bogleheadism goes mainstream?

To the OP, do you really want Bogleheadism to go mainstream? If everyone switches to low-cost index fund investment, would that not "change the game" substantially? Could the market be efficient, if it even is now, if all investments were just market cap weighted index buys? Somebody need...
by NERD777
Sun Mar 25, 2012 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Apple flash crash.... 9 percent on a 100 share trade?
Replies: 24
Views: 2071

Re: Apple flash crash.... 9 percent on a 100 share trade?

It wasn't a flash crash at all, I guess it was a super slows news day and they decided to run with it. One 100 lot went off on BATS and caused a circuit breaker trigger. They halted it, reopened it a few minutes later and all was well. The market during the time of Apple's halting was completely un...
by NERD777
Sat Mar 24, 2012 7:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Apple flash crash.... 9 percent on a 100 share trade?
Replies: 24
Views: 2071

Re: Apple flash crash.... 9 percent on a 100 share trade?

It wasn't a flash crash at all, I guess it was a super slows news day and they decided to run with it. One 100 lot went off on BATS and caused a circuit breaker trigger. They halted it, reopened it a few minutes later and all was well. The market during the time of Apple's halting was completely una...
by NERD777
Thu Mar 22, 2012 9:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: If I buy gold, what should I buy?
Replies: 50
Views: 8882

Re: If I buy gold, what should I buy?

Honestly I think it depends on the size of your portfolio. If you like I believe in a 5-10% allocation to precious metals as a way to decrease the SD of your portfolio there are two things to consider. GLD is a great product, super easy to buy and sell and you can rebalance with the click of a mouse...
by NERD777
Mon Mar 19, 2012 6:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a 2012/2013 Market Collapse Inevitable?
Replies: 49
Views: 5635

Re: Is a 2012/2013 Market Collapse Inevitable?

Another thing people seem to forget is the price of stock and therefore the price of the market is simply what another individual is willing to pay for it. Is AAPL worth 600 a share? It may be more or less. But as of today perceptions of investors deem that appropriate. Trading is about these percep...
by NERD777
Sun Mar 18, 2012 8:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a 2012/2013 Market Collapse Inevitable?
Replies: 49
Views: 5635

Re: Is a 2012/2013 Market Collapse Inevitable?

Yes the FED, ECB, BOE, BOJ, etc. do have a major influence to some degree in the equity markets. Yes there is some serious pricing in of QE3 in this market if the economy indicators started to deteriorate. I guess how you define collapse is the real key here. IS 2007-2008 what you are referring too?...
by NERD777
Sun Feb 12, 2012 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ The New Bond Market
Replies: 30
Views: 3012

Re: WSJ The New Bond Market

I was wondering how long it would take for someone in this thread to say "take your risk on the equities side". Investment grade and junk can and in my opinion should have a place in one's long term investment portfolio. The thinner and more volatile a market is typically the greater edge ...
by NERD777
Mon Jan 30, 2012 10:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Europe's continuing problems have not roiled the markets
Replies: 87
Views: 7696

Re: Why Europe's continuing problems have not roiled the mar

They have to a degree, much more so a few months back. Any slight 'news' would send the market into a tizzy intraday. Now not so much, but European news still lingers. There won't be another liquidity issue like we saw in 07-08. The Fed has made that very clear, the IMF is on board, and the ECB will...
by NERD777
Sat Jan 07, 2012 8:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can One LOCK IN GAINS?
Replies: 9
Views: 1242

Re: Can One LOCK IN GAINS?

Many directions to take this question, I'll bite with the most theoretical, lest practical of them. Short Answer: Kinda. Rebalancing from 'riskier' investments into 'safer' investments. i.e rebalancing equity gains into your bond allocation (Remember when that used to happen frequently?) Bonds obvio...
by NERD777
Sat Jan 07, 2012 5:49 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I'm about to buy a new car and think I may have a blind spot
Replies: 19
Views: 1929

Re: I'm about to buy a new car and think I may have a blind

It might not be your style, but the V6 mustangs have great pickup and handling for 25K.
by NERD777
Tue Jan 03, 2012 9:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Valuation Indicators: Overvaluation Remains High
Replies: 11
Views: 1159

Re: Market Valuation Indicators: Overvaluation Remains High

A little scary when one considers how overvalued we seemed in 2000 compared to 1929. One thing to consider, part of the reason this market is "overvalued" is because treasury yields are so low. I know Bogleheads think active investing and timing markets is silly, but the fact is some peopl...
by NERD777
Mon Jan 02, 2012 7:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What would you change if you had a 9-figure portfolio?
Replies: 31
Views: 3126

Re: What would you change if you had a 9-figure portfolio?

I would invest a bit more conservatively. Probably cut down my equity exposure and throw it into Corporates and TIPS. And it would not move the market.
by NERD777
Fri Dec 30, 2011 7:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads 2012 hedge fund contest
Replies: 81
Views: 11113

Re: Bogleheads 2012 hedge fund contest

Upsilon Frontier (UF)

Long: Apple (AAPL)
Long: Goldman Sachs (GS)

Short: eBay (EBAY)
Short: Red Hat (RHT)
by NERD777
Fri Dec 30, 2011 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Traders
Replies: 3
Views: 298

Re: Traders

Remember that most active funds underperform the market before fees. Traders do not take money from the market, but rather market participants. Imagine fund X wants to buy 1,000,000 shares of stock Y. Fund X doesn't just instantly buy 1,000,000 shares, or they would drive the price up far too high. ...
by NERD777
Wed Dec 21, 2011 9:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When do you not invest?
Replies: 23
Views: 2639

Re: When do you not invest?

When the total utility of your future expected returns is less than your current total utility from said amount. Muddy waters huh? Save, invest, and plan for the future, a lot. But have a little bit of fun while you are at.
by NERD777
Wed Dec 21, 2011 8:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Grok's Tip #11: Take Grok's pledge!
Replies: 162
Views: 25011

Re: Grok's Tip #11: Take Grok's pledge!

Grok, I love your posts and agree with the majority of your philosophy. But I don't quite understand your position on take your risk on the equity side. To simplify things we can simply address junk bonds, much like Vanguard High Yield Corporate (VWEHX). While I agree these should not be viewed anyt...
by NERD777
Wed Dec 21, 2011 8:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the market preoccupied with the negative?
Replies: 19
Views: 4202

Re: Is the market preoccupied with the negative?

Also today was far less news driven than it was earnings driven. Oracle missed pretty big and ended up down 11%, which is the 4th biggest component in the NASDAQ. Their earnings miss also dragged down many software, networking, and cloud stocks. CSCO, EMC, & IBM all huge companies were sold very...
by NERD777
Wed Dec 21, 2011 8:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the market preoccupied with the negative?
Replies: 19
Views: 4202

Re: Is the market preoccupied with the negative?

Well for one reason is there is not a lot of positive news out there. IMO, this market has held up pretty well with all the negative news. VTI is down roughly 18% from 2007 highs not including reinvesting dividends. Not to shabby all things considered. "Bulls make money, bears make money, sheep...
by NERD777
Sun Dec 18, 2011 8:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Could this be a super portfolio? What do you think?
Replies: 35
Views: 4229

Re: Could this be a super portfolio? What do you think?

Has a PP type feel. Long term treasuries have performed well in the face of lower interest rates. What happens if in 2013 rates go up consistently for years to come? Long term gets thrashed. If you were looking for a portfolio that tends to perform well in any market without significant draw downs I...
by NERD777
Sun Dec 18, 2011 8:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why would anyone buy hedge funds?
Replies: 37
Views: 2905

Re: Why would anyone buy hedge funds?

The few hedge funds that do beat the market consistently by employing HFT, various types or arbitrage (which can occasionaly blow up, i.e. LTCM), or trade on insider information, the general public and those without large amounts of capital would not and do not have access too. Solid hedge funds tha...
by NERD777
Mon Dec 05, 2011 10:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: fannie stock - worth it?
Replies: 7
Views: 860

Re: fannie stock - worth it?

You would be much better off buying their debt, same probably goes for JPM, BoA, MS, GS, etc. If the government does provide a backstop, debt should get paid but stock will most likely be diluted and when these banks return to actual profits on a consistent basis depends heavily on how our economy w...
by NERD777
Sat Dec 03, 2011 2:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US Markets - Flattest day ever?
Replies: 3
Views: 579

Re: US Markets - Flattest day ever?

What's more interesting is how the market compared with the major banks, specifically Morgan Stanley, Citi, JPM, and Goldman. The first hour specifically, the futures struggled while these major banks did nothing short of go vertical on large volume. Trading that day was certainly an interesting one.
by NERD777
Sun Nov 27, 2011 7:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The name is Bond. Junk Bond.
Replies: 50
Views: 5382

Re: The name is Bond. Junk Bond.

I like junk, as long as you don't view it quite like a "bond". The whole take your risk on the equity side is a stupid saying, and frankly doesn't make much sense. Your entire portfolio's risk should be the concern. I would never replace treasuries with junk and consider my AA the same for...
by NERD777
Sun Nov 20, 2011 1:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Total International Bond not just Developed
Replies: 22
Views: 2151

Re: New Total International Bond not just Developed

Hedging is very inexpensive (maybe a few basis points per year), and certainly the way to go with global fixed income. Bonds are the low risk/stable part of a balanced portfolio--adding currency exposure dwarfs interest income and price change volatility, making it an unwanted feature of fixed inco...
by NERD777
Sun Nov 20, 2011 12:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Total International Bond not just Developed
Replies: 22
Views: 2151

Re: New Total International Bond not just Developed

Hmm according to that press release they will be hedging currencies. That's a huge drawback for me depending on how much they hedge. One it will raise the expense ratio. Two and more importantly, part of the reason I would love an International Bond Fund in my portfolio is the currency diversificati...
by NERD777
Sun Nov 20, 2011 12:12 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The great bond debate
Replies: 66
Views: 5428

Re: The great bond debate

Am I right to steer clear of bonds, ... Yes. While not 100% certain, it's extremely likely that the Fed will let interest rates rise again in 3 years or so, and when that happens, bond holders will lose principle. I'm not going to be one of them. (But there are a lot of folks in this forum who don'...
by NERD777
Sat Nov 19, 2011 11:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If Europe blows up how will it affect Vanguard funds?
Replies: 28
Views: 2946

Re: If Europe blows up how will it affect Vanguard funds?

In the last 3 months, VGK is down .56% while VTI is up 8.33%. VGK has not come off September panic lows nearly as much as VTI has. You can tell the market is trying to price in possible scenarios for the European markets and more faith is being put into our market. VWO actually is performing worse t...
by NERD777
Sat Nov 19, 2011 11:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Weightlifting - do you do isolation exercises?
Replies: 81
Views: 5299

Re: Weightlifting - do you do isolation exercises?

I don't believe they are necessary provided you have a solid program of compound movements. If general health is your concern you can definitely skip them. Having said that, I myself could be caught doing curls and shrugs occasionally for vanity purposes. It's mostly an ego thing, after a good worko...
by NERD777
Sat Nov 19, 2011 5:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If Europe blows up how will it affect Vanguard funds?
Replies: 28
Views: 2946

Re: If Europe blows up how will it affect Vanguard funds?

Remember in 2008 treasuries took a hit as well. If a crisis were to happen, almost all asset classes may take a hit, equities, bonds, precious metals etc. as a flight to liquidity. If it were to "blow up", equity markets would more than likely take a serious hit. Realistically S&P 600 ...
by NERD777
Sat Nov 19, 2011 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If Europe blows up how will it affect Vanguard funds?
Replies: 28
Views: 2946

Re: If Europe blows up how will it affect Vanguard funds?

The market is betting that the ECB will ultimately monetize the debt (or if they don't then the US Fed will). If they don't, then you have the depression scenario which is actually worse than what happened post-Lehman. Pretty much. If no monetizing happens 2008 looks like a cake-walk. More than lik...
by NERD777
Thu Nov 17, 2011 6:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I Don't Buy Corporate Bond ETFs
Replies: 17
Views: 3866

Re: Why I Don't Buy Corporate Bond ETFs

Rick, BND contains corporate bonds. Would you advocate against owning BND as well based on this?
by NERD777
Wed Nov 16, 2011 12:02 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stock idea for 4th grade class...
Replies: 31
Views: 1349

Re: Stock idea for 4th grade class...

since almost everyone else in the contest will go long, buy an inverse fund like SKF. Probably the best idea. If most schools go the route of picking a high beta, you then have to get lucky on picking the "best" high beta. If it's one month just buy some FAZ (triple levered inverse bank E...
by NERD777
Tue Nov 15, 2011 11:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: When To Upgrade To A New Computer
Replies: 39
Views: 3627

Re: When To Upgrade To A New Computer

I'm with the not upgrading crowd, I simply do not think it is cost effective. I would use your current model until it dies or you often find yourself frustrated at its speed or rather lack thereof. Maybe you get 6 more months, maybe 2 years. Perhaps even making this thread shows you may not be frust...
by NERD777
Tue Nov 15, 2011 11:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Interest a Scam?
Replies: 49
Views: 4000

Re: Is Interest a Scam?

It seems like there is a lot of confusion on this thread, probably due to the fact that the fractional reserve banking system is a very confusing topic. Maybe a different way to pose the problem / question with slightly more clarity... Consider: If the assumption is all money is debt - which is wha...
by NERD777
Tue Nov 15, 2011 12:05 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I can't believe the price of...
Replies: 101
Views: 8033

Re: I can't believe the price of...

Notice people seem to believe many things seem to rise faster than the price of inflation, things they use very often/mildly dependent on. It might lead one to believe the calculation for inflation is off...
by NERD777
Wed Nov 09, 2011 9:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Gold and silver
Replies: 21
Views: 1752

Re: Gold and silver

My original paragraph was in response to the original poster. My second paragraph was a response to you and the crisis, I do apologize for not making it clearer with quotes. I agree, turning one's investment strategy upside because of certain events is not only against the philosophy of this board, ...