Search found 994 matches

by FillorKill
Wed Dec 28, 2016 6:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expected returns 2017-2047
Replies: 30
Views: 3418

Re: Expected returns 2017-2047

0) Atrocious: Neg Real
1) Bad: 0% Real
2) OK: 2% Real
3) Good: 4% Real
4) Spectacular: 6% Real
by FillorKill
Sat Dec 24, 2016 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If day trading works, shouldn't there be successful companies with proven track record?
Replies: 20
Views: 2323

Re: If day trading works ,,shouldn't there be successful companies with proven track record?

peter1a wrote:Isn't there a higher chance that renesaince returns are just pure luck, that is being justified by technical explanation?

No. This isn't luck.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ackest-box
by FillorKill
Fri Dec 23, 2016 4:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Sector Bond Funds - Lowered Costs
Replies: 21
Views: 2423

Re: Vanguard Sector Bond Funds - Lowered Costs

triceratop wrote:It appears as if the entire Vanguard Sector Bond portfolio saw cost reductions, effective today.

It appears as if the entire Vanguard Sector Bond portfolio saw price reductions, commencing with the conclusion of the presidential election :P
by FillorKill
Mon Dec 19, 2016 5:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index funds is the reason for overvalued market
Replies: 23
Views: 3668

Re: Index funds is the reason for overvalued market

rbaldini wrote:Is the market overvalued?

Price is truth.
by FillorKill
Thu Dec 15, 2016 6:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: winning game, sell stocks despite high bond prices?
Replies: 47
Views: 4697

Re: winning game, sell stocks despite high bond prices?

Appreciate the thoughts. We are overweight US stocks especially large cap and all of our VTI/VOO equivalent is in taxable; we either have to incur capital gains or donate to rebalance. You've been in this through both of the last two 50% equity declines and all of the other less impressive pull-bac...
by FillorKill
Thu Dec 15, 2016 5:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 4184
Views: 1118509

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Doom&Gloom wrote:Freefall ain't what it used to be.

This time is different.
by FillorKill
Sat Dec 10, 2016 10:12 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What Can One Do To Decrease Dividend Taxes?
Replies: 27
Views: 3757

Re: What Can One Do To Decrease Dividend Taxes?

The idea of selling before each dividend is a poor one. First of all, you will generate a fair amount of cost in commissions and the bid-asked spread, most likely more cost than the tax cost of the dividend. More importantly, you will trigger capital gains tax prematurely. This can only be a reason...
by FillorKill
Sun Dec 04, 2016 1:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard ETFs Less Tax Efficient Than Other ETFs?
Replies: 37
Views: 3954

Re: Vanguard ETFs Less Tax Efficient Than Other ETFs?

I stand corrected. But from an earlier post in this thread: "However, I have read the following from morningstar. An ETF has the option to sell underlying shares, and not just exchange them with authorized participants. So it can also accumulate cap losses that can be used to offset any cap ga...
by FillorKill
Sun Dec 04, 2016 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard ETFs Less Tax Efficient Than Other ETFs?
Replies: 37
Views: 3954

Re: Vanguard ETFs Less Tax Efficient Than Other ETFs?

However, the same also applies to net redemptions by ETF owners; portfolio managers could choose to exchange highest basis securities instead of lowest base securities. But hopefully for the fund owners, the net direction of the NAV is up, and this is especially relevant to buy and hold owners. So ...
by FillorKill
Sun Dec 04, 2016 8:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard ETFs Less Tax Efficient Than Other ETFs?
Replies: 37
Views: 3954

Re: Vanguard ETFs Less Tax Efficient Than Other ETFs?

For my needs and those of many other investors, ETFs are a better vehicle overall than open ended mutual funds. Vanguard ETFs are definitely competitive with nonVanguard ETFs. But that's because of Vanguard's cost advantage; IMO, the structure of Vanguard's ETFs is overall inferior to those of othe...
by FillorKill
Wed Nov 30, 2016 4:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Roth IRA contributions 2017
Replies: 11
Views: 1952

Re: Roth IRA contributions 2017

Thus, there are no bad outcomes for investing the money right away in a taxable account instead of parking it in a savings account while waiting for January to come around. Why wait until January? I've laid this out a couple of times before so I'll just paste-in a previous explanation from a couple...
by FillorKill
Thu Nov 17, 2016 5:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Muni bonds are getting killed. Are you bailing out?
Replies: 88
Views: 15438

Re: Muni bonds are getting killed. Are you bailing out?

cusetownusa wrote:By high, sell low...that's my motto. :wink:

It hasn't worked in the past, but there's a first time for everything :P
by FillorKill
Tue Nov 15, 2016 6:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Muni bonds are getting killed. Are you bailing out?
Replies: 88
Views: 15438

Re: Muni bonds are getting killed. Are you bailing out?

lostdog wrote:What happened with staying the course?

Be reasonable - it's been a week. :D
by FillorKill
Tue Nov 15, 2016 6:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tax bomb at 70 1/2
Replies: 71
Views: 10766

Re: Tax bomb at 70 1/2

...deduction bundling to produce alternating higher v lower taxable income years. High deduction/lower taxable income years augment income from high tax sources - traditional space. Higher income years draw from ROTH &/or take highest cost basis cap gains washed against loss carryforwards....
by FillorKill
Tue Nov 15, 2016 6:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tax bomb at 70 1/2
Replies: 71
Views: 10766

Re: Tax bomb at 70 1/2

Lowest expected returning assets in traditional space, highest in ROTH, TLH aggressively, spending out of the taxable account prior to SS/RMD to keep the distribution income in check....
by FillorKill
Mon Nov 14, 2016 4:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: EM buying opportunity? [Emerging Markets]
Replies: 35
Views: 4699

Re: EM buying opportunity?

Why not buy a total world etf or fund and forget all this market timing ? Because the day would come that I couldn't resist TLH'ing it. So, I'd go to similar proportions of US/ex-US funds (VTI/VXUS). Then one of those would inevitably underperform and I would TLH that into the underlying components...
by FillorKill
Fri Nov 11, 2016 6:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Today was an RBD ... [Really Bad Day]
Replies: 34
Views: 9082

Re: Today was an RBD ... [Really Bad Day]

Slowing Chinese economy is doing more to bring down EM indices. Successful Singles Day will help stimulate the economy, so it should help EM rise. All in all, it's volatile, but full sail ahead. Per capita GDP growth and real stock returns have been negatively correlated. Economic growth might make...
by FillorKill
Thu Nov 10, 2016 7:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: portfolio advice
Replies: 25
Views: 2701

Re: TSM, TBM, TISM, TIBM, REIT still a good Portfolio for 2017??

jafcorrea wrote:"What do you think?

any other good Portfolio funds suggestions ?"

VBR/VIOV/VOE/IVOV/VWO/VSS
by FillorKill
Thu Nov 10, 2016 6:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Slipping last few days- time to buy now or wait until after 11/8?
Replies: 99
Views: 13367

Re: Slipping last few days- time to buy now or wait until after 11/8?

You weren't wrong. S&P futures were down 5% when Mr. You Know Who was winning - and then promptly recovered the next day. Maybe so but what the mini is doing at 10 pm isn't actionable by 99.9% of Bogleheads who generally access equities via MF and ETF share classes of index funds. For those 99....
by FillorKill
Wed Nov 09, 2016 5:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Today was an RBD ... [Really Bad Day]
Replies: 34
Views: 9082

Re: Today was an RBD ...

CaliJim wrote:Please...save me the analysis... which asset class. Long bonds? (which I don't own)

My guess is livesoft was talking about EM - but duration had a bad hair day too - ZROZ down 6.6%
by FillorKill
Sun Oct 30, 2016 10:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Impact of fleeing index investors on Index Mutual Funds: studies?
Replies: 32
Views: 3344

Re: Impact of fleeing index investors on Index Mutual Funds: studies?

Further, what don't I understand about index mutual funds if many of my fellow shareholders of the mutual fund abandon ship? Nothing. You get your pro rata share of gains and losses just like everyone else with similar exposure be that through a fund pursuing the same objective, holding the underly...
by FillorKill
Fri Oct 28, 2016 4:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Impact of fleeing index investors on Index Mutual Funds: studies?
Replies: 32
Views: 3344

Re: Impact of fleeing index investors on Index Mutual Funds: studies?

...that the S.E.C. may not properly understand the risks borne by index mutual fund investors if investors flee those funds en masse. The author additionally pointed out that investors may not understand the risks. "the reality is that mutual funds are ultimately owned by tens of millions of i...
by FillorKill
Tue Oct 18, 2016 6:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Crossing the line (becoming a miser)
Replies: 71
Views: 10552

Re: Crossing the line (becoming a miser)

I have an acquaintance that's an Ascetic which looks like miserliness from afar but doesn't have anything to do with money.
by FillorKill
Thu Oct 13, 2016 5:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Exchange Fund, NOT ETF
Replies: 4
Views: 500

Re: Exchange Fund, NOT ETF

If you have a concentrated equity position - a usual prerequisite to interest in these vehicles - then exchange funds, variable forward contracts and equity collars among other vehicles/strategies can be used depending on your goals. Presumably you want diversification, to hedge and/or capital gain ...
by FillorKill
Tue Oct 11, 2016 4:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Free Lunch" - secondary brokered CDs?
Replies: 12
Views: 1947

Re: "Free Lunch" - secondary brokered CDs?

It's not a free lunch. Unlike treasuries, you might not have access to your money in a financial crisis to buy stocks at pennies on the dollar if you want to re-balance. 99%+ of the time, the partial illiquidity of an EWP (and risk of temporary total illiquidity) is worth the risk and pays off. In ...
by FillorKill
Sun Oct 02, 2016 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard ETFs vs. Index Funds
Replies: 20
Views: 3384

Re: Vanguard ETFs vs. Index Funds

Not sure what you mean. You can, if you want, reinvest ETF distributions just as you would regular mutual funds . I don't to avoid fractional shares and to direct new money to lagging allocations. Earl That doesn't help. An ETF goes ex and trades at a price reflecting the distribution, you, however...
by FillorKill
Sun Oct 02, 2016 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard ETFs vs. Index Funds
Replies: 20
Views: 3384

Re: Vanguard ETFs vs. Index Funds

Not significant and rarely mentioned - although annoying to me - is the cash drag of the ETF share class. I tend to avoid it in this way: in anticipation of quarterly distributions I will take a look at what I need to buy to move toward targets and the dollar value of distributions. In instances whe...
by FillorKill
Fri Sep 30, 2016 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone feel like ripping this asset allocation to shreds?
Replies: 58
Views: 4171

Re: Anyone feel like ripping this asset allocation to shreds?

seekinganswers wrote:Here's an update. Thoughts?

------------------------------------------
---------UPDATED AA---------

PROCESS: Allocation rate of 20K/month, rebalancing by adding rather than selling. Do this for 4 years - 2017 - 2020.

---------

Big step in the right direction - you've done yourself a favor.
by FillorKill
Thu Sep 29, 2016 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone feel like ripping this asset allocation to shreds?
Replies: 58
Views: 4171

Re: Anyone feel like ripping this asset allocation to shreds?

Purchasing power preservation for about 40 years with an ever decreasing need to purchase... ...PROCESS: Move cash into these allocations at rate of 30K/quarter, rebalancing by adding rather than selling. Do this for 8-10 years - roughly 2017 - 2027. Your plan is to spend 20-25% of your investment ...
by FillorKill
Wed Sep 28, 2016 4:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are tax-exempt money market yields so high?
Replies: 25
Views: 5676

Re: Why are tax-exempt money market yields so high?

Kenneth Almquist wrote:Does anybody have any idea what is going on here?

Keep in mind that the SEC yield for a MMF is annualized based on the previous 7 days distributions. Check back next week. :D
by FillorKill
Tue Sep 27, 2016 5:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How it really feels to have investments during a bear market?
Replies: 74
Views: 7470

Re: How it really feels to have investments during a bear market?

I remember wishing I had more money to invest during some of the big drops... and then being amazed at how much further it continued to fall. Day after day of huge volatile swings, but for the most part I 'stayed the course' and continued my regular investments in what is pretty much an all stock p...
by FillorKill
Tue Sep 27, 2016 4:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High yield bonds and GNMA's in a portfolio, since 1988
Replies: 10
Views: 1504

Re: High yield bonds and GNMA's in a portfolio, since 1988

Only because of the discreteness of Portfolio Visualizer calculations. You can see that the Sharpe ratio when including VSGBX falls slightly from 1.09 to 1.07, which should not happen when adding a fund choice. I have emailed the creator of the site, and he admits it is a problem, which can be solv...
by FillorKill
Tue Sep 27, 2016 3:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High yield bonds and GNMA's in a portfolio, since 1988
Replies: 10
Views: 1504

Re: High yield bonds and GNMA's in a portfolio, since 1988

Admittedly I'm a risk-on-the-equity-side investor. In theory GNMA is a lose/lose proposition for the mortgagor and a win/win for the mortgagee. But the rates on GNMAs allow for that, as investors are aware of the risk. GNMAs are backed by the US Government, but they yield significantly more than Tr...
by FillorKill
Mon Sep 26, 2016 4:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High yield bonds and GNMA's in a portfolio, since 1988
Replies: 10
Views: 1504

Re: High yield bonds and GNMA's in a portfolio, since 1988

According to Portfolio Visualizer, however, since 1988 (based on data availability), the highest Sharpe ratio portfolio choosing among.... VFINX Vanguard 500 Index Fund VUSTX Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Fund VFIIX Vanguard GNMA Fund VWESX Vanguard Long-Term Investment Grade Fund Investor Shrs VWEHX...
by FillorKill
Sun Sep 25, 2016 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: IRA CD question
Replies: 32
Views: 2991

Re: IRA CD question

If you choose the brokered route; you might want to purchase several smaller ones that you could sell to cover your RMD. But your broker would presumably have the best answer. With of brokered CDs you may make a larger purchase, say an initial issue purchase of 50K but you're buying 50 1K par CDs. ...
by FillorKill
Sun Sep 25, 2016 8:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling in October
Replies: 43
Views: 3854

Re: Selling in October

You believe that you can outperform an investor bearing equity risk 12/12 of the time by doing so 11/12 of the time?
by FillorKill
Sun Sep 25, 2016 7:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High yield bonds and GNMA's in a portfolio, since 1988
Replies: 10
Views: 1504

Re: High yield bonds and GNMA's in a portfolio, since 1988

Beliavsky wrote:Should fixed income portfolios be tilted towards GNMA bonds? In optimizations they push out Treasuries and investment grade corporate bonds.

In future periods will the option-adjusted spread adequately or inadequately compensate you for negative convexity? That is the question....
by FillorKill
Tue Sep 20, 2016 7:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Premium
Replies: 11
Views: 1982

Re: Small Cap Premium

But even the S&P Small-Cap 600 was outperformed by the S&P Mid-Cap 400 over the course of it's existence which pokes some holes in the idea that there's a "premium" for smaller. In the interest of fairness let's add the 500 TR & VG TSM to that chart and observe the results: S&...
by FillorKill
Tue Sep 06, 2016 4:14 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What makes people succeed?
Replies: 98
Views: 10254

Re: What makes people succeed?

Right. Livesoft's glass is greener {laughing} Victoria "The point is, ladies and gentleman, that green, for lack of a better word, is good. Green is right, green works. Green clarifies, cuts through, and captures the essence of the evolutionary spirit. Green, in all of its forms; green for lif...
by FillorKill
Tue Sep 06, 2016 4:04 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What makes people succeed?
Replies: 98
Views: 10254

Re: What makes people succeed?

Livesoft has over 49,000 posts, and I have over 15,000 posts. Should I see my Bogleheads glass as one-third full or two-thirds empty? It is THE question. Victoria livesoft has 49150 posts/1.64% of all posts/14.14 posts per day. You have 15760 posts/.53% of all posts/4.53 posts per day. Maybe you sh...
by FillorKill
Mon Aug 15, 2016 4:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Positive Aspect Of Currency Risk?
Replies: 16
Views: 1189

Re: Positive Aspect Of Currency Risk?

One investors 'currency risk' is another investors 'currency diversification'.

I'm with GMO on this one: https://www.gmo.com/docs/default-source ... f?sfvrsn=6
by FillorKill
Sun Aug 07, 2016 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 228
Views: 45972

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

P1: 100% US Market
P2: 50/50 US Market/Int Market (annual rebalance)

According to visualizer, from 1972-2015 one of these portfolios had a Sharpe of .37 and a Sortino of .63 while the other had a Sharpe of .37 and a Sortino of .63.

Can you guess which is which?
by FillorKill
Fri May 13, 2016 8:28 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What's your EM tilt and why?
Replies: 43
Views: 3670

Re: What's your EM tilt and why?

For those of you who have an emerging markets tilt, how much is it and what is your justification for that amount? About 23% of portfolio ATM or thereabout. Why? Beyond any sound investing rationale it's the mystery meat intrigue I find irresistible. Like buying a crab salad sandwich out of a vendi...
by FillorKill
Thu Apr 28, 2016 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling in May and Walking Away?
Replies: 106
Views: 11438

Re: Selling in May and Walking Away?

...I know that data has shown it to be a strategy that doesn't work long-term, and I know that a long-term investing horizon makes short-term moves a blip on the radar, and I know moving out of the market is easy, but timing the return to the market is very, very hard. If you're a long term investo...
by FillorKill
Thu Apr 28, 2016 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Critique Fixed Income Strategy - GNMA Dominance
Replies: 29
Views: 3444

Re: Critique Fixed Income Strategy - GNMA Dominance

I think I'll have to increase duration with some of the longer duration Fidelity funds that also add more credit risk. EDIT: Forgive my math but from your link, as of today, the slope is from 1-3 is 0.215 and the slope from 3-7 is 0.17. Your algebra may be better than my statement I last looked ear...
by FillorKill
Wed Apr 27, 2016 1:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Critique Fixed Income Strategy - GNMA Dominance
Replies: 29
Views: 3444

Re: Critique Fixed Income Strategy - GNMA Dominance

What's the maximum of your fixed income (exclusive of Ibonds) would you put in the GNMA or in Mortgages to keep from being overly concentrated? Does it make sense to view my own mortgage as a short position on the same sector? If rates go down to 2.5 no points, no closing 10 year, I would refinance...
by FillorKill
Wed Apr 27, 2016 8:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Critique Fixed Income Strategy - GNMA Dominance
Replies: 29
Views: 3444

Re: Critique Fixed Income Strategy - GNMA Dominance

...are you saying that there is no reason for me to be in GNMA vs treasuries and that the extra yield to compensate for the negative convexity isn't really compensating me? Ex-ante it is most reasonable to assume that the extra yield is sufficient compensation for the additional risks. Attempting t...
by FillorKill
Tue Apr 26, 2016 8:41 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Critique Fixed Income Strategy - GNMA Dominance
Replies: 29
Views: 3444

Re: Critique Fixed Income Strategy - GNMA Dominance

Buffetologist wrote:However, I am aware that I am being compensated in the GNMA for the negative convexity of mortgages. I don't know how to factor that into the selection.

Consider it compensation for the increased duration volatility that the negative convexity creates.
by FillorKill
Thu Apr 21, 2016 4:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What's the deal with long term gov bonds?
Replies: 26
Views: 2661

Re: What's the deal with long term gov bonds?

Anyone backtesting with portfolio visualizer to arrive at their proposed bond allocation should be required to run their proposed bond allocation 1972-1981 to see what things can look like in a different rate environment. Short term treasuries - too good to be true? If you're buying bonds with a du...