Search found 812 matches

by bradshaw1965
Sun Mar 17, 2024 8:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody heard stories of well "prepared" retirees running out of money?
Replies: 91
Views: 10346

Re: Anybody heard stories of well "prepared" retirees running out of money?

chassis wrote: Sun Mar 17, 2024 7:17 am
Saintor wrote: Sat Mar 16, 2024 2:17 pm The reason why I ask is because I saw quite a few sources mentioning that 2.7% or 3.3% is now the new 4%, including Morningstar in 2021 but possibly amended that later.

Threads like this eventually end up with posters stating that 0.5% withdrawal rate, excluding Social Security, pension and real estate, is the new 4%.

There is a vein of fear of running out of money on this site.
The delta between cat food and keeping up a lifestyle is huge, I would bet quite a lot of Bogleheads have projected SS income around median US income.
by bradshaw1965
Sun Mar 17, 2024 8:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody heard stories of well "prepared" retirees running out of money?
Replies: 91
Views: 10346

Re: Anybody heard stories of well "prepared" retirees running out of money?

Barsoom wrote: Sat Mar 16, 2024 5:01 pm Early in my career at MegaCorp (say late 1980s to early 1990s), there was a story going around about a well-known manager who retired, got the day trading bug, and squandered his entire retirement portfolio within five years.

-B
I think that probably falls under the addiction exception from the OP, it is really concerning how sports betting, option trading, and other gambling have become ingrained in the culture.
by bradshaw1965
Thu Feb 15, 2024 6:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Stocks for the Long Run? Karsten takes on "Beyond the Status Quo"
Replies: 46
Views: 6744

Re: 100% Stocks for the Long Run? Karsten takes on "Beyond the Status Quo"

A fair amount of academic papers suggest leveraged stock positions for young investors. Optimal and practical diverge at some point.
by bradshaw1965
Sun Feb 04, 2024 6:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Intuit's Mint App Shutting Down...Replacement Recommendations?
Replies: 754
Views: 141233

Re: Intuit's Mint App Shutting Down...Replacement Recommendations?

Fidelity Full View is the only service I've used to do a decent job with connecting to Treasury Direct and listing the individual bonds. Was happy to see this. I've just about fully migrated from Mint. Wasn't a fan of Simplifi, and Empower seemed pretty decent. In this case for my needs, Fidelity Full View hit the sweet spot.
by bradshaw1965
Sat Jan 13, 2024 11:09 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Detailed HOW TO link Vanguard and Fidelity Accounts
Replies: 8
Views: 3637

Re: Detailed HOW TO link Vanguard and Fidelity Accounts

Thanks so much for the step-by-step. The Vanguard website can be frustrating and this is just what I was looking for.
by bradshaw1965
Tue Jan 09, 2024 6:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ runs math on future returns from current highs
Replies: 80
Views: 11991

Re: WSJ runs math on future returns from current highs

Just finished Morgan Housel's Same as it Ever Was and it gave me some nice reminders about expectations with zero predictions. Recommended.
by bradshaw1965
Thu Dec 21, 2023 6:35 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Hey Men, what are you wearing to the gym?
Replies: 123
Views: 17398

Re: Hey Men, what are you wearing to the gym?

Not retired but... The key for me was NOT to wear any old cotton T-shirts but to invest in some work-out shirts with sweat-wicking/fast-drying poly material . They are so much more comfortable when working out. I ended up buying more and now wear them to mow the lawn in the summer, etc as well. I like Under-Armor brand the best but all sports wear companies sell them (Nike, Adidas, etc.) and I am sure you can buy them from some discount brands as well. Personally - I have found brand matters (e.g. I bought some cheaper Champion brand work-out shirts and they started to fall apart after only a year or so). I agree, the high tech fibers are worth investigating, and at this point pretty cheap. I used to wear cotton t-shirts and find the newer...
by bradshaw1965
Sat Dec 16, 2023 3:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When Did You Feel Financially Secure and Comfortable?
Replies: 134
Views: 29397

Re: When Did You Feel Financially Secure and Comfortable?

I am starting to feel ok that my expenses both with using VPW to establish a floor income, I am comfortable with that being a generous lifestyle and the recommended number feeling pretty aspirational, will have to look at that more closely as I start the glide path to retirement.
by bradshaw1965
Thu Dec 14, 2023 9:16 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Data unavailable at Vanguard [Temporarily unable to display account info]
Replies: 12
Views: 1020

Re: Vanguard Website Issues

jebmke wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2023 8:55 am I just logged in using Win10 system, Brave browser (with shields up!) and had no trouble with account overview, holdings or activity tab.

Perhaps the problem is on your end.
It's a Vanguard message with a standard Chrome login, I am a Software Engineer so I guess I could look at the Network Tab but that seems like more then a problem on my end.
by bradshaw1965
Thu Dec 14, 2023 8:51 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Data unavailable at Vanguard [Temporarily unable to display account info]
Replies: 12
Views: 1020

Vanguard Website Issues

[Thread merged into here --admin LadyGeek]

I am getting messages like this:
Our system is temporarily unable to display some of your account information. We apologize for the inconvenience and appreciate your patience while we fix these issues. Please refresh in a few minutes or choose another page
trying to access my account at Vanguard many more times then I am comfortable with the last few weeks.

I love the Vanguard that Mr. Bogle represented but it may be time for me to move on to my main account at Fidelity. Feels like the end of an era.
by bradshaw1965
Tue Dec 12, 2023 6:17 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is the Worst Financial Decision/Mistake You Have Made?
Replies: 657
Views: 133058

Re: What is the Worst Financial Decision/Mistake You Have Made?

Strictly from a returns standpoint selling Apple to buy indexes but there isn't a ton of regret there.
by bradshaw1965
Wed Dec 06, 2023 7:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond yields of 1% mean that 60/40-type allocations are off for almost everyone?
Replies: 132
Views: 15263

Re: Bond yields of 1% mean that 60/40-type allocations are off for almost everyone?

watchnerd wrote: Wed Dec 06, 2023 6:29 pm
bradshaw1965 wrote: Wed Dec 06, 2023 5:56 pm
watchnerd wrote: Wed Dec 06, 2023 3:32 pm I'm not sure they were even paying attention to it, given the mantras of:
"nobody knows nothing" and "stay the course"
Along the same lines, as Mr. Bogle said, "Don't peek". You do you.
That's kind of ironic given Jack himself changed his AA near the top of the dotcom boom.
It's an aphorism, that's the point.
by bradshaw1965
Wed Dec 06, 2023 5:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond yields of 1% mean that 60/40-type allocations are off for almost everyone?
Replies: 132
Views: 15263

Re: Bond yields of 1% mean that 60/40-type allocations are off for almost everyone?

watchnerd wrote: Wed Dec 06, 2023 3:32 pm I'm not sure they were even paying attention to it, given the mantras of:
"nobody knows nothing" and "stay the course"
Along the same lines, as Mr. Bogle said, "Don't peek". You do you.
by bradshaw1965
Fri Dec 01, 2023 6:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Different Standards for Small Value vs International?
Replies: 29
Views: 2216

Re: Different Standards for Small Value vs International?

Having looked at model portfolios on all of the visualizers it really is playing strategy badminton over just a few basis points over 20 or 30 years. Savings rate with any low cost indexes so overpowers portfolio returns for a comfortable retirement it is probably not much of a factor.
by bradshaw1965
Sun Nov 26, 2023 8:24 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much tip is appropriate at highly automated restaurants?
Replies: 103
Views: 10516

Re: How much tip is appropriate at highly automated restaurants?

In general, if someone touches a bag, container or drink I tip a nominal amount $1-2 as a courtesy. Full service I tip 20-25%.
by bradshaw1965
Sun Jan 16, 2022 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RIP Jack Bogle
Replies: 71
Views: 9094

Re: RIP Jack Bogle

Mel, thanks for all your and all of the Bogleheads continued education of the Bogle principles. It's much appreciated.
by bradshaw1965
Tue Nov 09, 2021 4:48 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Thank you Boglehead Admins, Moderators and participants
Replies: 36
Views: 3847

Re: Thank you Boglehead Admins and participants

LadyGeek wrote: Tue Nov 09, 2021 12:25 pm The thanks are much appreciated.
Amazing job. An amazing resource. My gratitude is immense.
by bradshaw1965
Mon Sep 27, 2021 4:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Our Approach to FIRE!!!
Replies: 24
Views: 8117

Re: Our Approach to FIRE!!!

Glad you are excited. My only advice to people pursuing FIRE is to stop and smell the roses along the way.
by bradshaw1965
Fri Aug 13, 2021 9:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Visualizer and 3 or 4% rule!
Replies: 13
Views: 1623

Re: Portfolio Visualizer and 3 or 4% rule!

On a positive note, starting retirement with 25 multiples of your current spending (reciprocal of 4%), is a pretty good amount of savings for the next 30 years of spending. The 4% SWR (Safe Withdrawal Rate) method is flawed by its ongoing withdrawals (WDs) with no adapting to any of the changes in your portfolio value during retirement. Yes, that has the illusion of certainty due to its inflation increases. Do you really expect to precisely spend the same real (inflation adjusted) amount, every year for the rest of your life? Why would you not try to reduce spending after a severe market crash, or boost spending if the first decade of retirement had very good returns? SWR failed when high inflation occurred early in 30 year retirements tha...
by bradshaw1965
Fri Aug 13, 2021 9:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: If equities declined X% from here and stayed down Y years
Replies: 40
Views: 4277

Re: If equities declined X% from here and stayed down Y years

I always assume a 50% drop is just around the corner. I am not sure what my capitulation point would be, I was never tempted during accumulation and hope my 3.5% or so with adjustments will work fine with my allocation. 50% has been mentioned a couple of times in this thread, and it's mentioned frequently on these boards. The trouble I have with 50% is that that market has doubled in just 5 years . So you can go back 5 years and find people also using the 50% figure as a kind of "max drawdown." Doesn't seem realistic to me now, given the rapid runup. A 50 percent equity drawdown would merely wipe out 5 years of gains. So I envision much deeper than 50 percent. I'm not predicting, just explaining. Yup, 50% is just a rule of thumb,...
by bradshaw1965
Fri Aug 13, 2021 4:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: If equities declined X% from here and stayed down Y years
Replies: 40
Views: 4277

Re: If equities declined X% from here and stayed down Y years

I always assume a 50% drop is just around the corner. I am not sure what my capitulation point would be, I was never tempted during accumulation and hope my 3.5% or so with adjustments will work fine with my allocation.
by bradshaw1965
Mon Aug 09, 2021 11:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads now on YouTube
Replies: 155
Views: 48238

Re: Bogleheads now on YouTube

Nice work. Greatly appreciated.
by bradshaw1965
Fri Jul 16, 2021 7:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Working after Financial Independence
Replies: 307
Views: 32115

Re: Working after Financial Independence

I am doing something similar. Mainly about leaving on my own terms. It's a work in progress...
by bradshaw1965
Wed Jun 09, 2021 2:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Can I retire?
Replies: 25
Views: 4772

Re: Can I retire?

Can you take a sabbatical? Yes, as long as you want might be a better question to ask.

All of the scolding you'll hear with an open question like that doesn't amount to much. You've got the capability to make a lot of money but that can now be a secondary concern.
by bradshaw1965
Wed Apr 28, 2021 7:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The comfort of "good enough"
Replies: 89
Views: 12944

Re: The comfort of "good enough"

Well done!
by bradshaw1965
Wed Apr 21, 2021 3:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What does "won the game stop playing" mean in practice?
Replies: 250
Views: 38836

Re: What does "won the game stop playing" mean in practice?

"Won the game" means you have enough money that you can pay for every single one of your children and grandchildren having special needs care for their entire life. If you can't do that then you clearly haven't won yet. I suppose there are probably some grandparents out there who wouldn't compromise on their retirement if it meant having to pay for a severely autistic grandchild after the money was put into a persistent vegetative state after a car crash. But all the real world people I know would have no hesitation about spending themselves into bankruptcy if they found themselves in a situation like that. I doubt 100x is enough for that. People who think 30x is enough to insulate from everything that could possibly go wrong in ...
by bradshaw1965
Wed Apr 21, 2021 10:39 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What does "won the game stop playing" mean in practice?
Replies: 250
Views: 38836

Re: What does "won the game stop playing" mean in practice?

"Won the game" means you have enough money that you can pay for every single one of your children and grandchildren having special needs care for their entire life. If you can't do that then you clearly haven't won yet. I suppose there are probably some grandparents out there who wouldn't compromise on their retirement if it meant having to pay for a severely autistic grandchild after the money was put into a persistent vegetative state after a car crash. But all the real world people I know would have no hesitation about spending themselves into bankruptcy if they found themselves in a situation like that. I doubt 100x is enough for that. People who think 30x is enough to insulate from everything that could possibly go wrong in ...
by bradshaw1965
Wed Apr 21, 2021 10:37 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What does "won the game stop playing" mean in practice?
Replies: 250
Views: 38836

Re: What does "won the game stop playing" mean in practice?

Dude2 wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 9:08 am I never understood FIRE, and am in the camp of those that keep earning while it is still possible to do so.
Gets tricky the last few years. The balance between time on earth and the likelihood of funding your heirs lifestyle is something I have struggled with.
by bradshaw1965
Wed Apr 21, 2021 10:31 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What does "won the game stop playing" mean in practice?
Replies: 250
Views: 38836

Re: What does "won the game stop playing" mean in practice?

Regret minimization on a sliding scale. A lot of people will have 100% equity out of habit and take a loss that's difficult to recover without it having much effect on their lifestyle. It's a challenging time to decide how much to de-risk. Bogleheads tend to carry things too far in my opinion but at the same time if it provides some existential comfort who am I to judge?
by bradshaw1965
Thu Apr 15, 2021 7:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Does Anyone Listen To Paul Merriman?
Replies: 151
Views: 34823

Re: Why Does Anyone Listen To Paul Merriman?

You could do much worse. He's an interesting guy with a reasonable message. There is just not that much to say about sound investing and when you are a public figure you say the same things over and over.

Bill Bernstein is the most interesting investment adjacent guy I know, I listen to every interview he does and I do it even though I know all of the anecdotes he'll use because I know there will be a good tidbit in there.
by bradshaw1965
Tue Apr 13, 2021 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is this the single worst time to be a passive investor
Replies: 73
Views: 11090

Re: Is this the single worst time to be a passive investor

I expect lower returns because it is the single best time to be a passive investor. Amazing low fees for amazingly diversified products at a button click.
by bradshaw1965
Tue Apr 13, 2021 7:57 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Second career / semi retirement math
Replies: 7
Views: 1053

Re: Second career / semi retirement math

That's my plan. I'm at 25x annual spending without accounting for Social Security. I'm going to do a couple of projects a year and manage some passive projects. I struggled with letting go at 56, all of this may change but it's my post-COVID plan at the moment.

My main letting go piece was accepting that there would be some kind of healthcare access at a reasonable price up to starting Medicare. If that gamble doesn't pay off, I'll need to adjust and I feel capable of that.
by bradshaw1965
Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another 2.8% SWR Article Quoting Wade Pfau
Replies: 303
Views: 28101

Re: Another 2.8% SWR Article Quoting Wade Pfau

vineviz wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 1:40 pm
He wasn’t, actually.
If he wasn't wrong, the concept is not useful.I am just leaning towards SWR being not a useful concept except for cutting off naive unrealistic expectations on the high side.
by bradshaw1965
Thu Mar 25, 2021 1:01 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Advice on not stressing closer to retirement
Replies: 62
Views: 4971

Re: Advice on not stressing closer to retirement

So many good voices. I would say I am just sort of drifting into it without thinking at all about the money and it feels pretty great. I have things that need tending and they will produce some income but it is now about finding the path to the next thing with a frugal heart and an active mind.
by bradshaw1965
Wed Mar 24, 2021 11:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Panic Sold All My Theme Park Stocks
Replies: 35
Views: 6064

Re: Panic Sold All My Theme Park Stocks

I don't understand how the forum can be moderated anymore. All my 2008 buddies and my 2003 buddies. Markets man markets.
by bradshaw1965
Fri Mar 19, 2021 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Early Retirement and Absorbing the 10% Withdrawal Penalty
Replies: 46
Views: 5614

Re: Early Retirement and Absorbing the 10% Withdrawal Penalty

CoastLawyer2030 wrote: Fri Mar 19, 2021 7:43 am
bradshaw1965 wrote: Fri Mar 19, 2021 7:09 am
Wiggums wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 12:25 pm If you are working part time, you are not retired.
Slippery slope, I plan on having a small business that rises above the IRS definition of a hobby for the rest of my life.
This all gets into the classic argument of what "retired" means. Right now I work a 40 hour/week job plus run my solo practice for 10-15 hours a week. When I "retire" I will ditch the day job and just run my solo practice, preferably for 10 hours a week.

The goal is to have just 3-4 corporate clients and that's it. There might be weeks or months with zero work.
Prettt similar, A couple of projects a year and some family assets.
by bradshaw1965
Fri Mar 19, 2021 7:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Early Retirement and Absorbing the 10% Withdrawal Penalty
Replies: 46
Views: 5614

Re: Early Retirement and Absorbing the 10% Withdrawal Penalty

Wiggums wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 12:25 pm If you are working part time, you are not retired.
Slippery slope, I plan on having a small business that rises above the IRS definition of a hobby for the rest of my life.
by bradshaw1965
Wed Mar 17, 2021 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% rule disputed (Again??!!)
Replies: 421
Views: 36226

Re: 4% rule disputed (Again??!!)

William Million wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 10:41 pm Seems there's a cult-like subculture on Bogleheads insisting 4% SWR is too high. Seems to reflect the inherent conservatism of Bogleheads rather than any empirical studies.
Was health care for a long time. There is a large contingent of folks who out conservative each other, if you aren’t concerned about legacy it seems mostly to be a skewed sense of the statistical nature of mortality in my opinion.
by bradshaw1965
Mon Mar 15, 2021 9:28 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 15x expenses, then SS
Replies: 95
Views: 9431

Re: 15x expenses, then SS

I don't normally do comparisons but I am in your ballpark and plan on spending half what you are spending. To each his own but take a hard look at your spending more then your portfolio in my opinion.
by bradshaw1965
Wed Mar 10, 2021 7:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: William Bernstein on Masters in Business
Replies: 15
Views: 2743

Re: William Bernstein on Masters in Business

Barry gets great guests, I'll deal with the verbal tics.
by bradshaw1965
Thu Feb 18, 2021 7:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I come out of retirement?
Replies: 66
Views: 8334

Re: Should I come out of retirement?

Watty wrote: Wed Feb 17, 2021 10:51 pm I just found out that my next door neighbor has COVID that she likely got at work.

You are in the middle of a pandemic and you can afford to differ any decision about going back to work or not.

Even though your numbers look great I would put the decision about going back to work on the back burner until the pandemic is under control and things are at least halfway normal again.
In similar situation and that's my plan. I would defer this decision because you can.
by bradshaw1965
Thu Jan 14, 2021 11:32 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What are your Lean FIRE, FIRE, and Fat FIRE numbers?
Replies: 307
Views: 36024

Re: What are your Lean FIRE, FIRE, and Fat FIRE numbers?

I can't really wrap my head around the idea of LeanFIRE or how that information is useful to me. If I can't have the lifestyle I want to have, I am not ready to retire early and I'm not exactly financially independent, either. If there is some unforeseen circumstance that occurs in my life that makes working not feasible or desirable I can assess whether retirement on a reduced budget is possible at the time. But it's nothing I feel like I'm going to plan for in advance. If those circumstances even arose, I'd probably make other choices: leave a VHCOL area, consider move in with family, etc, etc. But I've got zero interest in planning for a lifestyle that does not seem reasonably likely and that I don't want. (It's okay if this information...
by bradshaw1965
Thu Jan 14, 2021 11:09 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What are your Lean FIRE, FIRE, and Fat FIRE numbers?
Replies: 307
Views: 36024

Re: What are your Lean FIRE, FIRE, and Fat FIRE numbers?

Since I get to define my own: Lean fire = id still look for a job if I got fired from work, but I wouldn’t starve. Fire = I probably wouldn’t look for a job if I got fired. Fat fire = the negative marginal utility of continuing to work for money subtracted from the money earned would be negative. So I guess fire = $200k / $5m assets or so. Lean fire is anything less than that. Make it $2m - $3m since that’s where I am now. Fat fire is probably $400k / $10m assets. A bit after age 50 depending based on my projections (been tracking for 20 years; they’re pretty good at this point). I used to think I’d keep working until 65 and have a pile in the range of $30m “just to be” uhnw; a goal since I grew up pretty darn poor. But I can’t for the lif...
by bradshaw1965
Thu Jan 14, 2021 8:25 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What are your Lean FIRE, FIRE, and Fat FIRE numbers?
Replies: 307
Views: 36024

Re: What are your Lean FIRE, FIRE, and Fat FIRE numbers?

This has been a really useful thread for me. Thanks to all that participated. It helps see fellow Bogleheads mindsets.
by bradshaw1965
Wed Jan 13, 2021 8:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Intern'l Living's 2021 retirement countries
Replies: 18
Views: 1996

Re: Intern'l Living's 2021 retirement countries

I have family in Mexico and have thought about spending significant time in a colonial city like San Miguel de Allende.

I've also thought about making Spain or Portugal a base of operation to explore Europe.

SE Asia has always called my name but seems a little more complicated then the last time I thought about it.

I have no illusions about the tradeoffs necessary, I probably will not full time expat for the rest of my life.
by bradshaw1965
Tue Jan 12, 2021 8:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What are your Lean FIRE, FIRE, and Fat FIRE numbers?
Replies: 307
Views: 36024

Re: What are your Lean FIRE, FIRE, and Fat FIRE numbers?

hi_there wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 6:31 pm I don't think stay at home dad and retired are mutually exclusive. You can retire from your career and become a stay at home dad.

However, I think you do need to accomplish something to qualify as "retired", and this doesn't have to be related to age. For instance, if you are 30 years old and don't work after selling your software company for $20 million, you can call yourself retired.
Without judging, the restricted use of language like that is a limiting mindset.