Search found 785 matches

by bradshaw1965
Wed Apr 28, 2021 7:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The comfort of "good enough"
Replies: 89
Views: 10694

Re: The comfort of "good enough"

Well done!
by bradshaw1965
Wed Apr 21, 2021 3:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What does "won the game stop playing" mean in practice?
Replies: 208
Views: 18795

Re: What does "won the game stop playing" mean in practice?

"Won the game" means you have enough money that you can pay for every single one of your children and grandchildren having special needs care for their entire life. If you can't do that then you clearly haven't won yet. I suppose there are probably some grandparents out there who wouldn't...
by bradshaw1965
Wed Apr 21, 2021 10:39 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What does "won the game stop playing" mean in practice?
Replies: 208
Views: 18795

Re: What does "won the game stop playing" mean in practice?

"Won the game" means you have enough money that you can pay for every single one of your children and grandchildren having special needs care for their entire life. If you can't do that then you clearly haven't won yet. I suppose there are probably some grandparents out there who wouldn't...
by bradshaw1965
Wed Apr 21, 2021 10:37 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What does "won the game stop playing" mean in practice?
Replies: 208
Views: 18795

Re: What does "won the game stop playing" mean in practice?

Dude2 wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 9:08 am I never understood FIRE, and am in the camp of those that keep earning while it is still possible to do so.
Gets tricky the last few years. The balance between time on earth and the likelihood of funding your heirs lifestyle is something I have struggled with.
by bradshaw1965
Wed Apr 21, 2021 10:31 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What does "won the game stop playing" mean in practice?
Replies: 208
Views: 18795

Re: What does "won the game stop playing" mean in practice?

Regret minimization on a sliding scale. A lot of people will have 100% equity out of habit and take a loss that's difficult to recover without it having much effect on their lifestyle. It's a challenging time to decide how much to de-risk. Bogleheads tend to carry things too far in my opinion but at...
by bradshaw1965
Thu Apr 15, 2021 7:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Does Anyone Listen To Paul Merriman?
Replies: 105
Views: 10751

Re: Why Does Anyone Listen To Paul Merriman?

You could do much worse. He's an interesting guy with a reasonable message. There is just not that much to say about sound investing and when you are a public figure you say the same things over and over. Bill Bernstein is the most interesting investment adjacent guy I know, I listen to every interv...
by bradshaw1965
Tue Apr 13, 2021 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is this the single worst time to be a passive investor
Replies: 73
Views: 9483

Re: Is this the single worst time to be a passive investor

I expect lower returns because it is the single best time to be a passive investor. Amazing low fees for amazingly diversified products at a button click.
by bradshaw1965
Tue Apr 13, 2021 7:57 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Second career / semi retirement math
Replies: 7
Views: 817

Re: Second career / semi retirement math

That's my plan. I'm at 25x annual spending without accounting for Social Security. I'm going to do a couple of projects a year and manage some passive projects. I struggled with letting go at 56, all of this may change but it's my post-COVID plan at the moment. My main letting go piece was accepting...
by bradshaw1965
Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another 2.8% SWR Article Quoting Wade Pfau
Replies: 252
Views: 14333

Re: Another 2.8% SWR Article Quoting Wade Pfau

vineviz wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 1:40 pm
He wasn’t, actually.
If he wasn't wrong, the concept is not useful.I am just leaning towards SWR being not a useful concept except for cutting off naive unrealistic expectations on the high side.
by bradshaw1965
Thu Mar 25, 2021 1:01 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Advice on not stressing closer to retirement
Replies: 62
Views: 3930

Re: Advice on not stressing closer to retirement

So many good voices. I would say I am just sort of drifting into it without thinking at all about the money and it feels pretty great. I have things that need tending and they will produce some income but it is now about finding the path to the next thing with a frugal heart and an active mind.
by bradshaw1965
Wed Mar 24, 2021 11:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Panic Sold All My Theme Park Stocks
Replies: 35
Views: 5313

Re: Panic Sold All My Theme Park Stocks

I don't understand how the forum can be moderated anymore. All my 2008 buddies and my 2003 buddies. Markets man markets.
by bradshaw1965
Fri Mar 19, 2021 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Early Retirement and Absorbing the 10% Withdrawal Penalty
Replies: 46
Views: 4422

Re: Early Retirement and Absorbing the 10% Withdrawal Penalty

If you are working part time, you are not retired. Slippery slope, I plan on having a small business that rises above the IRS definition of a hobby for the rest of my life. This all gets into the classic argument of what "retired" means. Right now I work a 40 hour/week job plus run my sol...
by bradshaw1965
Fri Mar 19, 2021 7:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Early Retirement and Absorbing the 10% Withdrawal Penalty
Replies: 46
Views: 4422

Re: Early Retirement and Absorbing the 10% Withdrawal Penalty

Wiggums wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 12:25 pm If you are working part time, you are not retired.
Slippery slope, I plan on having a small business that rises above the IRS definition of a hobby for the rest of my life.
by bradshaw1965
Wed Mar 17, 2021 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% rule disputed (Again??!!)
Replies: 421
Views: 30622

Re: 4% rule disputed (Again??!!)

Seems there's a cult-like subculture on Bogleheads insisting 4% SWR is too high. Seems to reflect the inherent conservatism of Bogleheads rather than any empirical studies. Was health care for a long time. There is a large contingent of folks who out conservative each other, if you aren’t concerned...
by bradshaw1965
Mon Mar 15, 2021 9:28 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 15x expenses, then SS
Replies: 95
Views: 8001

Re: 15x expenses, then SS

I don't normally do comparisons but I am in your ballpark and plan on spending half what you are spending. To each his own but take a hard look at your spending more then your portfolio in my opinion.
by bradshaw1965
Wed Mar 10, 2021 8:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: William Bernstein on Masters in Business
Replies: 15
Views: 2413

Re: William Bernstein on Masters in Business

Barry gets great guests, I'll deal with the verbal tics.
by bradshaw1965
Thu Feb 18, 2021 8:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I come out of retirement?
Replies: 66
Views: 7303

Re: Should I come out of retirement?

I just found out that my next door neighbor has COVID that she likely got at work. You are in the middle of a pandemic and you can afford to differ any decision about going back to work or not. Even though your numbers look great I would put the decision about going back to work on the back burner ...
by bradshaw1965
Thu Jan 14, 2021 12:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What are your Lean FIRE, FIRE, and Fat FIRE numbers?
Replies: 307
Views: 26040

Re: What are your Lean FIRE, FIRE, and Fat FIRE numbers?

I can't really wrap my head around the idea of LeanFIRE or how that information is useful to me. If I can't have the lifestyle I want to have, I am not ready to retire early and I'm not exactly financially independent, either. If there is some unforeseen circumstance that occurs in my life that mak...
by bradshaw1965
Thu Jan 14, 2021 12:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What are your Lean FIRE, FIRE, and Fat FIRE numbers?
Replies: 307
Views: 26040

Re: What are your Lean FIRE, FIRE, and Fat FIRE numbers?

Since I get to define my own: Lean fire = id still look for a job if I got fired from work, but I wouldn’t starve. Fire = I probably wouldn’t look for a job if I got fired. Fat fire = the negative marginal utility of continuing to work for money subtracted from the money earned would be negative. S...
by bradshaw1965
Thu Jan 14, 2021 9:25 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What are your Lean FIRE, FIRE, and Fat FIRE numbers?
Replies: 307
Views: 26040

Re: What are your Lean FIRE, FIRE, and Fat FIRE numbers?

This has been a really useful thread for me. Thanks to all that participated. It helps see fellow Bogleheads mindsets.
by bradshaw1965
Wed Jan 13, 2021 9:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Intern'l Living's 2021 retirement countries
Replies: 18
Views: 1669

Re: Intern'l Living's 2021 retirement countries

I have family in Mexico and have thought about spending significant time in a colonial city like San Miguel de Allende. I've also thought about making Spain or Portugal a base of operation to explore Europe. SE Asia has always called my name but seems a little more complicated then the last time I t...
by bradshaw1965
Tue Jan 12, 2021 9:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What are your Lean FIRE, FIRE, and Fat FIRE numbers?
Replies: 307
Views: 26040

Re: What are your Lean FIRE, FIRE, and Fat FIRE numbers?

I don't think stay at home dad and retired are mutually exclusive. You can retire from your career and become a stay at home dad. However, I think you do need to accomplish something to qualify as "retired", and this doesn't have to be related to age. For instance, if you are 30 years old...
by bradshaw1965
Mon Jan 11, 2021 12:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What are your Lean FIRE, FIRE, and Fat FIRE numbers?
Replies: 307
Views: 26040

Re: What are your Lean FIRE, FIRE, and Fat FIRE numbers?

Has anyone crunched their numbers on retirement expenses. I'm asking a contrarian question of if you're earning $100k++/yr now, do you need $100k++/yr(adjusted for inflation) at retirement? For those planning to moFIRE with $250k/yr, what are you spending your money on? Isn't there a probability th...
by bradshaw1965
Mon Jan 11, 2021 12:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What are your Lean FIRE, FIRE, and Fat FIRE numbers?
Replies: 307
Views: 26040

Re: What are your Lean FIRE, FIRE, and Fat FIRE numbers?

Has anyone crunched their numbers on retirement expenses. I'm asking a contrarian question of if you're earning $100k++/yr now, do you need $100k++/yr(adjusted for inflation) at retirement? For those planning to moFIRE with $250k/yr, what are you spending your money on? Isn't there a probability th...
by bradshaw1965
Mon Jan 11, 2021 11:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What are your Lean FIRE, FIRE, and Fat FIRE numbers?
Replies: 307
Views: 26040

Re: What are your Lean FIRE, FIRE, and Fat FIRE numbers?

I live in a not particularly large house (about 1750 square feet), but in a VHCOL area. I think it has to do with interpretation of what lean FIRE is. My understanding is that lean FIRE is living in a basic fashion in a way that minimizes expenses which means minimizing the cost of housing as well....
by bradshaw1965
Sun Jan 10, 2021 7:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What are your Lean FIRE, FIRE, and Fat FIRE numbers?
Replies: 307
Views: 26040

Re: What are your Lean FIRE, FIRE, and Fat FIRE numbers?

Has anyone crunched their numbers on retirement expenses. I'm asking a contrarian question of if you're earning $100k++/yr now, do you need $100k++/yr(adjusted for inflation) at retirement? Right now, my base expenses are about $30k/yr, and with discretionary it goes to $45k/yr. Everything beyond $...
by bradshaw1965
Sun Jan 10, 2021 5:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What are your Lean FIRE, FIRE, and Fat FIRE numbers?
Replies: 307
Views: 26040

Re: What are your Lean FIRE, FIRE, and Fat FIRE numbers?

This thread is so much more helpful to the way my brain works then the endless SWR threads.
by bradshaw1965
Wed Dec 16, 2020 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Charlie Munger - next 10 years to be lower than the last 10
Replies: 147
Views: 11921

Re: Charlie Munger - next 10 years to be lower than the last 10

So much talk for something that seems intuitively true. Stay the course, don't peek.
by bradshaw1965
Mon Dec 14, 2020 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not VSS instead of VXUS?
Replies: 26
Views: 3083

Re: Why not VSS instead of VXUS?

Whatever helps you to not tinker too much is going to be fine. Thinking is fine, I've never done great with the tinkering. The one thing that I would do differently is pay a lot of attention to taxes and distributions for taxable accounts. I think ETF's probably are better for this but that is a rel...
by bradshaw1965
Mon Dec 14, 2020 7:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we seeing a bad omen? [S&P 500 - Best November since 1928]
Replies: 64
Views: 5576

Re: Are we seeing a bad omen?

Paying too much attention to markets means your IPS is not written correctly. Some people love a ghost story some do not. Plan accordingly.
by bradshaw1965
Sat Dec 12, 2020 7:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If Bonds are so Terrible, Why are they up so much for the year?
Replies: 155
Views: 12488

Re: If Bonds are so Terrible, Why are they up so much for the year?

Lots of good analysis in this thread. I am going to take a moment to note that low expected returns does not answer to terrible. Language is very important to an investor. Do some reading. The Boglehead plan is simple but not easy.
by bradshaw1965
Sun Dec 06, 2020 1:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Hate My Job
Replies: 239
Views: 21320

Re: Hate My Job

Burnout is real. You probably need to quit your job but don't focus on retirement, focus on your next chapter and you'll be happier or at least that seems to be my situation.
by bradshaw1965
Thu Oct 29, 2020 7:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Asness will be our next "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast guest [Questions for]
Replies: 70
Views: 6580

Re: Cliff Asness will be our next "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast guest

He's usually a great interviewee, looking forward to it. Thanks for all you do with the podcast Rick.
by bradshaw1965
Mon Aug 17, 2020 8:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri's portfolio more in line in spirit with EW than market cap weighting?
Replies: 27
Views: 4265

Re: Rick Ferri's portfolio more in line in spirit with EW than market cap weighting?

Lots of roads to Dublin, what can you stick with minimal changes? Too much tinkering will almost definitely result in lower returns unless it is a passion that you can keep up with and own the results. It's not the blocking and tackling of any strategy that makes it simple but whether you can stick ...
by bradshaw1965
Wed Apr 29, 2020 10:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Podcast - Wade Pfau: The 4% Rule Is No Longer Safe
Replies: 186
Views: 13886

Re: Podcast - Wade Pfau: The 4% Rule Is No Longer Safe

Mentioned above, but why the jump to 3% when 3.3-3.5% seem more realistic. It's a pretty decent amount of spending in an upper-middle class retirement portfolio.
by bradshaw1965
Sat Feb 01, 2020 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman is my guest on this "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast
Replies: 137
Views: 10628

Re: Paul Merriman is my guest on this "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast

Thanks Rick, always enjoy listening. Great selection of guests.
by bradshaw1965
Sat Dec 14, 2019 11:13 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Which iPad would you buy today?
Replies: 40
Views: 2720

Re: Which iPad would you buy today?

I decided to go for a Pro with Apple Pencil for digital illustration and painting. I find it amazing that it outperforms a desktop with amazing tactile feel. I hate the word gamechanger but it's a whole new paradigm for this kind of creation for me. The hardware is expensive but the software is gett...
by bradshaw1965
Fri Oct 11, 2019 9:37 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Allan Roth and Bill Bernstein fixed income portfolio?
Replies: 51
Views: 7480

Re: Allan Roth and Bill Bernstein fixed income portfolio?

I don't have exact quotes so there may be nuance, but they are both fixed income is for safety. Treasuries, CD's, etc are best bets.
by bradshaw1965
Wed Sep 04, 2019 4:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Ability to Stream NFL Games (Sundays, Mondays, Thursdays)
Replies: 38
Views: 4508

Re: Ability to Stream NFL Games (Sundays, Mondays, Thursdays)

With some effort, you can choose your own "area" in youtube TV. That will show you all games showing in say Philadelphia. It will also change all local channels which may be annoying to you. Sunday ticket is cheaper if its for a student. Do you have one in your household? Circumvention of...
by bradshaw1965
Wed Sep 04, 2019 9:48 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Ability to Stream NFL Games (Sundays, Mondays, Thursdays)
Replies: 38
Views: 4508

Re: Ability to Stream NFL Games (Sundays, Mondays, Thursdays)

With some effort, you can choose your own "area" in youtube TV. That will show you all games showing in say Philadelphia. It will also change all local channels which may be annoying to you. Sunday ticket is cheaper if its for a student. Do you have one in your household? Circumvention of...
by bradshaw1965
Tue Sep 03, 2019 6:46 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Ability to Stream NFL Games (Sundays, Mondays, Thursdays)
Replies: 38
Views: 4508

Re: Ability to Stream NFL Games (Sundays, Mondays, Thursdays)

This is probably your best bet for all of the nuances. https://www.reddit.com/r/cordcutters/wiki/nflguide Sunday Ticket is Sundays only, you'll need a basic streaming package from the likes of Sling, Vue, YoutubeTv for Mondays, NFL Game Pass is useful but is not live in the US, the games are availab...
by bradshaw1965
Thu Aug 29, 2019 9:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is your plan for the last few years of a long life?
Replies: 230
Views: 17313

Re: What is your plan for the last few years of a long life?

Sandtrap wrote: Wed Aug 28, 2019 9:02 am
At some certain point, cognitive decline will take hold and there may be some relief from worry and stress? :shock:
j
In my personal experience cognitive decline leads to increased anxiety and stress for the person experiencing it.
by bradshaw1965
Fri Aug 23, 2019 12:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: RE-OPENED for Good LightRoom Equivs: Best FOSS for Video Production, Audio Production, Photo Editing, and Office Suites?
Replies: 19
Views: 1637

Re: Best FOSS for Video Production, Audio Production, Photo Editing, and Office Suites?

For Mac creative apps I'd look at Indy apps but they aren't FOSS and have lower costs without subscription. Affinity suite (Designer = Illustrator, Photo= Photoshop, Publisher = InDesign), Sketch is great for UX, Acorn and Pixelmator are Mac friendly image editors, FCPX/Motion Apple's video, motion ...
by bradshaw1965
Fri Aug 16, 2019 9:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 23285
Views: 3044359

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Since 1950 *, 65 year olds in the first-world have been gaining roughly 1 year of life expectancy per decade. Since 65 year olds' current life expectancy is about 19 years, it will take about 260 years at that same rate before their life expectancy reaches 110. And this assumes that there isn't a '...
by bradshaw1965
Mon Aug 12, 2019 5:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 23285
Views: 3044359

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Heh, you're the first 6-year old I've seen on this site. Nice! Meh. I think he thinks that by the time we get that old, the average human will live to 110+. Since 1950 *, 65 year olds in the first-world have been gaining roughly 1 year of life expectancy per decade. Since 65 year olds' current life...
by bradshaw1965
Mon Aug 12, 2019 4:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 23285
Views: 3044359

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

My horizon is at least 50 years and probably 90 for the funds I hope to pass on. Heh, you're the first 6-year old I've seen on this site. Nice! Meh. I think he thinks that by the time we get that old, the average human will live to 110+. Since 1950 *, 65 year olds in the first-world have been gaini...
by bradshaw1965
Fri Jul 26, 2019 3:36 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Audible audio books
Replies: 14
Views: 1091

Re: Audible audio books

FI4LIFE wrote: Fri Jul 26, 2019 3:06 pm Switch to Android
Vendors are pushing side-loading, etc. to avoid the "Google Play Tax" as well.Big tech is big tech.
by bradshaw1965
Wed Jul 24, 2019 8:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Laid Off - Want to Retire / Am I OK
Replies: 145
Views: 22077

Re: Laid Off - Want to Retire / Am I OK

aristotelian wrote: Wed Jul 24, 2019 3:49 pm You are probably in the top 1% of net worth on the planet. You will be fine.
Being completely pedantic...but the worldwide 1% is a paltry $871,320.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/01/how-muc ... dwide.html