Search found 705 matches

by bradshaw1965
Thu Dec 06, 2018 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 58 y/o nearing retirement - looking at economic/stock market indicators
Replies: 32
Views: 4447

Re: 58 y/o nearing retirement - looking at economic/stock market indicators

My VERY strong gut feeling is that the stock market has no where to go but down from here. Over the next 12 mos I see market dropping to as low as 19,000 once capitulation is complete. If this does indeed happen then I may sell my CDs (even at a loss) and gradually buy back in. Otherwise I will jus...
by bradshaw1965
Thu Nov 29, 2018 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Company sponsored 401k $80/yr fee
Replies: 7
Views: 614

Re: Company sponsored 401k $80/yr fee

A small fixed fee is great. A lot of small companies end up with "no admin fee" 401k's administered by insurance companies grabbing high percentages of assets with absolutely no value added.
by bradshaw1965
Tue Nov 27, 2018 11:08 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Dual Monitor Set up
Replies: 52
Views: 2815

Re: Dual Monitor Set up

I find the Dell Ultra HD 4k Monitor P2715Q 27-Inch Screen the sweet spot for my aging eyes. The extra sharp text allows me to get through a long day of programming and production.
by bradshaw1965
Sun Nov 04, 2018 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [WSJ: The New Retirement Plan: Save Almost Everything, Spend Virtually Nothing]
Replies: 74
Views: 8588

Re: [WSJ: The New Retirement Plan: Save Almost Everything, Spend Virtually Nothing]

Agreed. I think people conflate FIRE with stoppage of work. In my case, by the math, I am financially independent, so I have reduced work to a level that provides me with the balance I feel suits my life at this time. Less work is in my future. To each his/her own. My concern is with those "experts...
by bradshaw1965
Sat Nov 03, 2018 8:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [WSJ: The New Retirement Plan: Save Almost Everything, Spend Virtually Nothing]
Replies: 74
Views: 8588

Re: WSJ FIRE

A quote from the article say is all for me: Brandon Ganch, 36, who retired from his job as a software engineer in 2016, said his frugality became an obsession and he stressed over small purchases by his wife. He often got upset when visitors took long hot showers at his former Vermont home or his w...
by bradshaw1965
Wed Oct 31, 2018 8:56 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is it more advantageous to live in HCOL or LCOL area in terms of financial independence?
Replies: 180
Views: 11170

Re: Is it more advantageous to live in HCOL or LCOL area in terms of financial independence?

I've lived in Atlanta for most of my career with a relatively LCOL but because it is a regional hub the wages have been pretty robust. If you find ways to deal with the traffic, Atlanta is pretty livable.
by bradshaw1965
Tue Oct 23, 2018 8:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much money do you want to retire?
Replies: 658
Views: 83497

Re: How much money do you want to retire?

A couple years ago my wife told me that she could retire if we had $5M in investments. :oops: She told me yesterday that we could retire if we win the Powerball drawing ($1Billion) tomorrow. So I guess that's something. :beer poor mmcmonster, his wife will never retire... [...]I would like to retir...
by bradshaw1965
Tue Oct 23, 2018 6:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When Will Attaining Millionaire Status Be Obsolete?
Replies: 77
Views: 4864

Re: When Will Attaining Millionaire Status Be Obsolete?

Here I am. I'm 34, and if someone handed me $1 million, I'd retire right now. $143,000 of that would pay off my mortgage, leaving me with $857,000. Even at 3% SWR, that would leave me with $25,710 per year and I'm not sure what I'd do with all that money. Over $2,000/month with no mortgage to pay? ...
by bradshaw1965
Tue Oct 23, 2018 6:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When Will Attaining Millionaire Status Be Obsolete?
Replies: 77
Views: 4864

Re: When Will Attaining Millionaire Status Be Obsolete?

Here I am. I'm 34, and if someone handed me $1 million, I'd retire right now. $143,000 of that would pay off my mortgage, leaving me with $857,000. Even at 3% SWR, that would leave me with $25,710 per year and I'm not sure what I'd do with all that money. Over $2,000/month with no mortgage to pay? ...
by bradshaw1965
Tue Oct 23, 2018 6:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When Will Attaining Millionaire Status Be Obsolete?
Replies: 77
Views: 4864

Re: When Will Attaining Millionaire Status Be Obsolete?

Do some of you realize that most Americans live paycheck to paycheck and barely have $1000 in savings? Only 50% invest at all. Reaching millionaire status is a huge milestone for most people. Not sure what planet you're on? +1 I know I'll be celebrating the day I cross the threshold! You will celeb...
by bradshaw1965
Fri Oct 12, 2018 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who worries about a bear market in stocks?
Replies: 71
Views: 5863

Re: Who worries about a bear market in stocks?

So, it makes sense to me that you should only carry up to 20% in stocks in retirement (of non-discretionary capital). Any more than that is gambling: accepting non-optimal risk for a hoped-for return. Maybe I just get caught up in language, but more then 20% of non-discretionary capital in stocks i...
by bradshaw1965
Thu Oct 11, 2018 2:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5 ways target-date funds let investors down
Replies: 38
Views: 3577

Re: 5 ways target-date funds let investors down

1. The inability to put 50% in small caps is good for most people. The small and value outperformance has not held up more recently. There is no reason to make insane tilts like that. Not so sure the referenced portfolio qualifies as insane. Small and value are recognized factors. Lots of roads to ...
by bradshaw1965
Wed Oct 10, 2018 8:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5 ways target-date funds let investors down
Replies: 38
Views: 3577

Re: 5 ways target-date funds let investors down

1. The inability to put 50% in small caps is good for most people. The small and value outperformance has not held up more recently. There is no reason to make insane tilts like that. Not so sure the referenced portfolio qualifies as insane. Small and value are recognized factors. Lots of roads to ...
by bradshaw1965
Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The benefits of international diversification - NOT: Hulbert
Replies: 80
Views: 5430

Re: The benefits of international diversification - NOT: Hulbert

It sounds trite and almost buffoonish, but if you're going to buy-and-hold, then that's what you have to do. The nice thing about buy and hold is that there is exactly one thing I need to do over my investment lifetime to almost guarantee a statistically excellent outcome. If I can control my emoti...
by bradshaw1965
Tue Oct 09, 2018 1:54 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: My 2017 CRV is a victim of the dreaded oil gas-dilution issue
Replies: 710
Views: 105426

Re: My 2017 CRV is a victim of the dreaded oil gas-dilution issue

In my mind Honda's dishonesty here has wrecked their reputation, at least with me. I really doubt I will buy another Honda in a long time, and I certainly won't recommend them to anyone I know. Sad. Toyota had the same round-trip response problem with their oil sludge issues in 2007. They are still...
by bradshaw1965
Fri Oct 05, 2018 11:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: October "Bogleheads On Investing" podcast with Dr. David Blitzer
Replies: 26
Views: 3352

Re: October Bogleheads On Investing Podcast with Dr. David Blitzer

Future guests who have agreed to be interviewed. Presented in no particular order: Tim Buckley (CEO Vanguard) Jonathan Clements (Humble Dollar) Christine Benz (Morningstar) Allan Roth (Wealth Logic) Bill Bernstein (Efficient Frontier) Gus Sauter (Vanguard - Retired) Wes Gray (Alpha Architect) Mel L...
by bradshaw1965
Thu Oct 04, 2018 2:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Charles Murray's and Jordan Peterson's book
Replies: 17
Views: 1422

Re: Charles Murray's and Jordan Peterson's book

I believe these are self-help type books and I'm personally trying to avoid such books (have read many). But both these authors seem well regarded, so I wanted to see what did some folks here thought of these two books. Both of these authors are extremely controversial. They may be "well regarded" ...
by bradshaw1965
Tue Oct 02, 2018 11:30 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best neighborhoods in Atlanta
Replies: 46
Views: 3752

Re: Best neighborhoods in Atlanta

City of Decatur & not the incorporated, is a great place to be, it is in the DeKalb County for school district, which leads you to a hot real estate market. Compared to the surrounding counties one may pay extra for the home purchase & in taxes but it will appreciate fast. Real Estate in DC is not ...
by bradshaw1965
Tue Oct 02, 2018 11:16 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Root of Good's cost of raising a child: $3,300 per year
Replies: 163
Views: 5766

Re: Root of Good's cost of raising a child: $3,300 per year

The FIRE community has got some 'splaining todo since they aren't under the radar anymore. The general resentment is interesting. I'm personally trying to keep 2 ideas in my head at the same time both for and against.
by bradshaw1965
Sun Sep 30, 2018 10:44 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best neighborhoods in Atlanta
Replies: 46
Views: 3752

Re: Best neighborhoods in Atlanta

I'd agree with Decatur as family focused with great schools. O4W/Beltline area is super walkable and vibrant but my guess is you'd have to solve for schools. Traffic advice is really important, whatever you do don't buy based off of a Summer time or off-hours commute simulation.
by bradshaw1965
Sun Sep 30, 2018 10:20 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much money do you want to retire?
Replies: 658
Views: 83497

Re: How much money do you want to retire?

But in general my feeling is that people will decide how much they need to reach the above goals, and then retire when those goals are achievable without earning money (putting aside issues of health or disability that force early retirement). It's not just health or disability. A layoff or some ot...
by bradshaw1965
Fri Sep 28, 2018 4:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much money do you want to retire?
Replies: 658
Views: 83497

Re: How much money do you want to retire?

See, this is the slow creep. For example, with this analysis, say I want to be able to afford not just 1 year of house cleaning + lawn mowing (etc) but for the rest of my life. So now it becomes extra 40 weeks, correct? If I only work for another extra 4 years, then all of the future trips can be t...
by bradshaw1965
Wed Sep 26, 2018 6:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much money do you want to retire?
Replies: 658
Views: 83497

Re: How much money do you want to retire?

Think healthcare and end of life nursing care. You think insurance picks up everything or is without substantial cost? You can purchase a lower benefit if you wish but given choice many will not opt for it. Having dealt with a little too much end of life care for parents and loved ones recently, mo...
by bradshaw1965
Wed Sep 26, 2018 10:00 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much money do you want to retire?
Replies: 658
Views: 83497

Re: How much money do you want to retire?

Think healthcare and end of life nursing care. You think insurance picks up everything or is without substantial cost? You can purchase a lower benefit if you wish but given choice many will not opt for it. Having dealt with a little too much end of life care for parents and loved ones recently, mo...
by bradshaw1965
Tue Sep 18, 2018 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Facing Retirement at year end
Replies: 22
Views: 2745

Re: Facing Retirement at year end

$49K in Social Security income, and $870K in liquid assets if you decide to lump sum the pension with a $50k a year expenses is a pretty good ballpark to be in. Seems like housing and health care are going to be your biggest things to figure out but that's not unusual. I'd probably downsize and move...
by bradshaw1965
Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Laddered CDs
Replies: 28
Views: 2929

Re: Laddered CDs

peterinjapan wrote:
Tue Sep 18, 2018 8:23 am
I love the Fidelity Laddered CD tool. It's "set and forget" and I have one in my IRA.

https://fixedincome.fidelity.com/ftgw/f ... -new-issue
That's a really nice tool, thanks for the pointer.
by bradshaw1965
Mon Sep 17, 2018 10:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Delaying SS? How Long It Will Take for It to Pay Off?
Replies: 53
Views: 5340

Re: Delaying SS? How Long It Will Take for It to Pay Off?

smitcat wrote:
Mon Sep 17, 2018 8:07 am
Greenman72 wrote:
Mon Sep 17, 2018 8:06 am
I don't know much about anything.
But I know that delaying it until 70 doesn't help if you die at 69.
Absolutely true - If you are going to die at 69 then retire ASAP and take SS at 62.
Not sure that's always right if you are using spousal benefits in your planning.
by bradshaw1965
Mon Sep 17, 2018 8:51 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Overnight near Atlanta?
Replies: 30
Views: 1660

Re: Overnight near Atlanta?

Just one anecdotal datapoint for Atlanta weekend traffic, there seems to be significant ongoing weekend construction and my travel times have been as bad as commute times on 85, 75 and 285.
by bradshaw1965
Mon Sep 10, 2018 7:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: $25K car
Replies: 39
Views: 3735

Re: $25K car

You might also consider a Mazda 6. I recently test drove a 2018 Accord and a 2018 Mazda 6, and liked the Mazda much better. The Mazda also has the safety features like Honda's, the 6 is getting CarPlay right now, and also has keyless entry. I found the Mazda drives much nicer than the Accord. Bette...
by bradshaw1965
Mon Sep 10, 2018 6:36 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: $25K car
Replies: 39
Views: 3735

Re: $25K car

You might also consider a Mazda 6. I recently test drove a 2018 Accord and a 2018 Mazda 6, and liked the Mazda much better. The Mazda also has the safety features like Honda's, the 6 is getting CarPlay right now, and also has keyless entry. I found the Mazda drives much nicer than the Accord. Bette...
by bradshaw1965
Mon Sep 10, 2018 4:28 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: $25K car
Replies: 39
Views: 3735

Re: $25K car

I really like the 2018 Honda Accord Sport, purchased one myself and am happy about it. The only downside is that it is model year one for this car and the 1.5 Liter Turbo has had issues in other Honda vehicles in the lineup (long running thread on Bogleheads about the CRV). I feel pretty good about ...
by bradshaw1965
Sat Sep 08, 2018 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Scaring the Old Folks
Replies: 71
Views: 8384

Re: Scaring the Old Folks

Sitting home and watching fox news is pretty darn cheap:) So is not buying any new clothes:) Obviously my biggest savings from retiring is no longer saving 25-40% of my income. The huge tax decrease (i.e. no SS, LTGC with cost basis) is going to be around another 20% savings. Thats a lot of golf, t...
by bradshaw1965
Sun Sep 02, 2018 7:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to Retire in Your 30's with $1 Million in the Bank
Replies: 148
Views: 18914

Re: How to Retire in Your 30's with $1 Million in the Bank

Bogleheads in general has become much less tolerant of anything but a high-paying long career with every I dotted and every T crossed. I think the Boglehead principles work in all kinds of situations and are especially helpful in situations where you can't afford to make big mistakes. A lot of these...
by bradshaw1965
Tue Aug 21, 2018 8:11 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is a million really the benchmark for retirement
Replies: 109
Views: 12249

Re: Is a million really the benchmark for retirement

When I move, I plan to buy another house in a low cost of living area (back home) for cash. If I sold my house today, I could do it (I've been watching sale prices in my current neighborhood and where I want to live in four years). .... With $800k, I pull out $32k annually from my retirement invest...
by bradshaw1965
Tue Aug 21, 2018 8:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is a million really the benchmark for retirement
Replies: 109
Views: 12249

Re: Is a million really the benchmark for retirement

It is hard to have this discussion unless someone defines what a successful retirement means to them. For me, a retirement where I am just "not homeless", or where I have to shop for my clothes at Wal-Mart, or where I can't afford to travel unless I stay at a cheap motel, would not be a success. Yo...
by bradshaw1965
Mon Aug 20, 2018 7:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is a million really the benchmark for retirement
Replies: 109
Views: 12249

Re: Is a million really the benchmark for retirement

you can set 1 mil as a milestone target. with 1 mil and proper investment to beat the inflation assuming you withdraw 3% , it would last 30 years of your retirement. Assuming you would also get 20k from SS, so the total $50k would get you some sort of "decent" retirement cost covered. But would thi...
by bradshaw1965
Mon Aug 20, 2018 3:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is a million really the benchmark for retirement
Replies: 109
Views: 12249

Re: Is a million really the benchmark for retirement

Hello all. I see so many posts here from people with a million dollars (some by their 30s or even multi-millions before then) that I start to feel a bit sub-par and worry if I have enough. My estimates put me at $800k (assuming I keep saving at my current rate of and count on 3% a year until retire...
by bradshaw1965
Mon Aug 20, 2018 3:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is a million really the benchmark for retirement
Replies: 109
Views: 12249

Re: Is a million really the benchmark for retirement

you can set 1 mil as a milestone target. with 1 mil and proper investment to beat the inflation assuming you withdraw 3% , it would last 30 years of your retirement. Assuming you would also get 20k from SS, so the total $50k would get you some sort of "decent" retirement cost covered. But would thi...
by bradshaw1965
Sun Aug 19, 2018 4:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Teachers Who Have Net Worth of $1 million +
Replies: 137
Views: 18368

Re: Teachers Who Have Net Worth of $1 million +

I don't agree that, averaged over the entire country, it's necessarily a huge accomplishment to accumulate $1M as a teacher vs. countless other occupations with similar requirements. Also we have all kinds of posts referring to couples, and there again if both people work, I'm not seeing it as a hu...
by bradshaw1965
Sun Aug 19, 2018 2:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Teachers Who Have Net Worth of $1 million +
Replies: 137
Views: 18368

Re: Teachers Who Have Net Worth of $1 million +

I've found this calculator really useful for getting a feel for actual net worth and what it means to be a millionaire in the United States. https://dqydj.com/net-worth-by-age-calculator-united-states/ Make sure you switch to avoid home equity and it's 90th percentile for 50-54 and 85th percentile f...
by bradshaw1965
Sun Aug 19, 2018 2:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Teachers Who Have Net Worth of $1 million +
Replies: 137
Views: 18368

Re: Teachers Who Have Net Worth of $1 million +

I don't agree that, averaged over the entire country, it's necessarily a huge accomplishment to accumulate $1M as a teacher vs. countless other occupations with similar requirements. Also we have all kinds of posts referring to couples, and there again if both people work, I'm not seeing it as a hu...
by bradshaw1965
Tue Aug 14, 2018 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck
Replies: 95
Views: 4485

Re: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck

But why does it make sense to believe that the 4% rule is still carved in stone? 4% rule was *never* carved in stone. It was a single study that drove *down* the general rule of thumb for retiree withdrawals. That's not entirely accurate. Yes, Bengen's study was seminal, but it was a study that has...
by bradshaw1965
Tue Aug 14, 2018 9:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck
Replies: 95
Views: 4485

Re: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck

CULater wrote:
Tue Aug 14, 2018 9:51 am
But why does it make sense to believe that the 4% rule is still carved in stone?
4% rule was *never* carved in stone. It was a single study that drove *down* the general rule of thumb for retiree withdrawals.
by bradshaw1965
Tue Aug 14, 2018 8:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck
Replies: 95
Views: 4485

Re: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck

I'm not sure the 1966 retiree would completely agree with you. He literally spent his last penny in his 30th year of retirement - after a whole series of very depressing conversations with his financial advisor along the way.... And to pour salt in his wounds, many of his buddies who retired at tim...
by bradshaw1965
Sat Aug 11, 2018 6:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New York Times--Vanguard Warns of Worsening Odds for the Economy and Markets
Replies: 67
Views: 10244

Re: New York Times--Vanguard Warns of Worsening Odds for the Economy and Markets

I don't understand why Vanguard focuses so much on avoiding the noise, staying the course and yet they put out research like this constantly it seems as of late. Hire some economists and they are going to make forecasts. It's like expecting the scorpion not to sting you to not expect this kind of r...
by bradshaw1965
Sat Aug 11, 2018 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New York Times--Vanguard Warns of Worsening Odds for the Economy and Markets
Replies: 67
Views: 10244

Re: New York Times--Vanguard Warns of Worsening Odds for the Economy and Markets

I don't understand why Vanguard focuses so much on avoiding the noise, staying the course and yet they put out research like this constantly it seems as of late. Hire some economists and they are going to make forecasts. It's like expecting the scorpion not to sting you to not expect this kind of r...
by bradshaw1965
Thu Aug 09, 2018 8:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HBO Hard Knocks Clip - Compound Interest Clip
Replies: 10
Views: 1417

Re: HBO Hard Knocks Clip - Compound Interest Clip

It was a nice piece, cringed at "put $100,000 in the bank and let it just sit there" but just happy to get a little personal finance in on a popular show and hopefully he gets a little Vanguard followup.
by bradshaw1965
Wed Jul 18, 2018 4:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tyler Cowen talks with Vitalik Buterin
Replies: 2
Views: 430

Re: Tyler Cowen talks with Vitalik Buterin

Link: https://medium.com/conversations-with-tyler/vitalik-buterin-tyler-cowen-cryptocurrency-blockchain-tech-3a2b20c12c97. It's a fascinating discussion covering the economics and the challenges of Ethereum. Cowen is an academic economist at George Mason University, an author of several books and o...
by bradshaw1965
Fri Jul 13, 2018 9:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Saving 20% of paycheck isn't enough
Replies: 112
Views: 14522

Re: Saving 20% of paycheck isn't enough

I feel that it is best to just save as much as you can without sacrificing too much of your life. Obviously, the higher your rate of saving, the easier it is to retire earlier. Start as early as possible too. Too many variables involved to really be able to put a set %. Everyone needs to figure out...
by bradshaw1965
Thu Jul 12, 2018 12:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Five years to retirement (article)
Replies: 12
Views: 2026

Re: Five years to retirement (article)

"Imagine you're a 60 year old woman making $140,000 a year" "Imagine you own a $500,000 house in New York and pay $25,000 a year in property taxes, insurance, and maintenance." "Imagine you have 1.5 million in retirement savings and have 5 years to go before you reach retirement." Imagine you wrote...