Search found 6040 matches

by bertilak
Mon Oct 15, 2018 3:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is EMH a tautology?
Replies: 108
Views: 4575

Re: Is EMH a tautology?

Is the EMH "true"? Maybe, maybe not. But in terms of making investment decisions, the most rational thing to do is behave as if it were true. Or to put it another way, I personally do not think it is technically "true", but I do believe that it is beneficial to consider it as up it were true. That'...
by bertilak
Mon Oct 15, 2018 3:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is EMH a tautology?
Replies: 108
Views: 4575

Re: Is EMH a tautology?

Is the EMH "true"? Maybe, maybe not. But in terms of making investment decisions, the most rational thing to do is behave as if it were true. Or to put it another way, I personally do not think it is technically "true", but I do believe that it is beneficial to consider it as up it were true. That'...
by bertilak
Fri Oct 12, 2018 6:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: No Touch ID on Vanguard's mobile app for Android
Replies: 11
Views: 972

Re: No Touch ID on Vanguard's mobile app for Android

Now that I have a phone with Touch ID I really miss it on the Vanguard site. I was slightly annoyed when Vanguard didn't play nice.

Now that I see Vanguard supports it on IOS I am more than slightly annoyed!
by bertilak
Fri Oct 12, 2018 12:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does it make sense to consider that stocks are 'on sale' when there's a correction?
Replies: 84
Views: 4239

Re: Does it make sense to consider that stocks are 'on sale' when there's a correction?

"Does it make sense to consider that stocks are 'on sale' when there's a correction?"

YES, if the correction has triggered a re-balance point.

NO, if it has not.

ASSUMPTION: Your available cash is included in your AA.
by bertilak
Fri Oct 12, 2018 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does Timing Matter? 3 Fund Portfolio
Replies: 39
Views: 2677

Re: Does Timing Matter? 3 Fund Portfolio

Timing DOES matter.

The gotcha: you don't know what the right timing is (was) until you are past the time! So it matters but is not actionable.
by bertilak
Fri Oct 12, 2018 5:54 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 3333
Views: 1003360

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Just started The Daughter of Time (1951) by Josephine Tey. The book has the following: A thousand people drowned in floods in China are news: a solitary child drowned in a pond is tragedy. That sounds very familiar but I have never read this book before. Is it a common observation? Is there an orig...
by bertilak
Thu Oct 11, 2018 5:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I just viewed my first Vanguard television commercial on CNN
Replies: 6
Views: 1072

Re: I just viewed my first Vanguard television commercial on CNN

I can honestly say I didn't get the point the commercial was trying to convey. I got the point. It is a right-brain point, not a left-brain point. And the point is, investing with Vanguard frees up your brain from obsessing over left-brain activity (frowning over spreadsheets, etc.) and apply that ...
by bertilak
Wed Oct 10, 2018 3:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 3333
Views: 1003360

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Just started The Daughter of Time (1951) by Josephine Tey. The book has the following: A thousand people drowned in floods in China are news: a solitary child drowned in a pond is tragedy. That sounds very familiar but I have never read this book before. Is it a common observation? Is there an orig...
by bertilak
Tue Oct 09, 2018 7:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 3333
Views: 1003360

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Just started The Daughter of Time (1951) by Josephine Tey. It is an unusual detective story in that the murder mystery is about 500 years old: the deaths of King Richard's two young nephews, the oldest of which was to inherit his late father's (King Edward IV) crown. Richard preferred that he be kin...
by bertilak
Mon Oct 08, 2018 5:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 3333
Views: 1003360

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

I'm trying to read The Three Musketeers, by Alexander Dumas, but I think I've bogged down. I just started Count of Monte Cristo (also by Dumas). I'm only at page 16 of 479. So far our hero has been arrested on trumped up charges by someone who will obviously benefit from that. My thoughts so far: I...
by bertilak
Mon Oct 08, 2018 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What part of your investment philosophy was "Inspired by Jack Bogle"?
Replies: 27
Views: 1093

Re: What part of your investment philosophy was "Inspired by Jack Bogle"?

For me, it's everything. My entire investment philosophy is based on Jack's "Little Book of Common Sense Investing" and the Bogleheads investment philosophy . After 20 years of investing and making many mistakes along the way I have embraced Simplicity . With each year that passes I become more con...
by bertilak
Sat Oct 06, 2018 8:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 7 Investing Truths That Aren't
Replies: 53
Views: 5843

Re: 7 Investing Truths That Aren't

I basically agree with Roth, or at least with his point. If your strategy depends on understanding the "tricky, hard to explain, stuff" then perhaps your strategy is too, well, "tricky." This doesn't mean that your explanation to an 8yo will be as deep as the explanation to a 16yo but the 8yo's expl...
by bertilak
Fri Oct 05, 2018 3:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [What TV Show Have You Recently Watched?]
Replies: 869
Views: 94692

Re: [What TV Show Have You Recently Watched?]

We have watched the first two seasons of Broadchurch on Netflix. This is a chilling but addictive police story. I kind of enjoyed the 1st season but the the theme was too depressing to go for the 2nd. I bailed as soon as I saw the direction the 2nd season was taking. I didn't even finish the first ...
by bertilak
Wed Oct 03, 2018 7:07 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Your USER NAME...what does it mean?
Replies: 439
Views: 49165

Re: Your USER NAME...what does it mean?

DesertDiva wrote:
Wed Oct 03, 2018 5:10 pm
I live in the Desert and I wish I could sing
Assuming the desert has open spaces you can go there to sing and no one can find fault!
by bertilak
Wed Oct 03, 2018 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is an emergency fund just about market timing?
Replies: 103
Views: 5525

Re: Is an emergency fund just about market timing?

FireProof wrote:
Tue Oct 02, 2018 9:48 am
The only clear one seems to be so that you can avoid selling stocks at a "bad time," but of course judging a "bad time" is classic market timing.
The "bad time" may have nothing to do with the market. Life can throw bad things at you any time.
by bertilak
Wed Oct 03, 2018 5:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Key differences between investing philosophies: Swedroe vs. Bogle
Replies: 144
Views: 7602

Re: Key differences between investing philosophies: Swedroe vs. Bogle

Bogle's advice is timeless and it will stand the test of time. Swedroe's advice is flavor of the decade, it may not stand the test of time. Question one need to ask, do I feel lucky? I agree, especially about the "feel" part. Complicated strategies, either managed by you or by some fund manager, re...
by bertilak
Sun Sep 30, 2018 5:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What kind of irrationality causes investors to accept exorbitant prices for active management?
Replies: 17
Views: 1720

Re: What kind of irrationality causes investors to accept exorbitant prices for active management?

five2one wrote:
Sun Sep 30, 2018 5:48 pm
I use a broker because my day job leaves me no time to do the work required to gain similar returns.

Sure, some have better returns than me but I’m satisfied with my returns.
Having a broker is not the same as using active management.
by bertilak
Sun Sep 30, 2018 10:49 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: city water sewer vs well septic
Replies: 36
Views: 2347

Re: city water sewer vs well septic

The septic is the real killer if it needs replacement. We clean out our tank every three years at about 280 each pump. If the system needs replacement then that could cost 10-20k. This is my second house with well and septic, 10 years for the first and 14 for this one and never had an issue with th...
by bertilak
Sun Sep 30, 2018 10:33 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help me manage my day to day bills to save more!!
Replies: 45
Views: 3507

Re: Help me manage my day to day bills to save more!!

How much use do you get out of that pool. It looks quite expensive!

Perhaps you could reduce your "pool season" by a month or two.
by bertilak
Sun Sep 30, 2018 10:27 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: city water sewer vs well septic
Replies: 36
Views: 2347

Re: city water sewer vs well septic

I think the standard risk vs. reward thing applies. Town water and septic: Lower risk but higher regular expenses. Private well and septic: Lower regular expenses but greater risk of occasional high expenses. That's a tough comparison to make because the risk side is difficult to quantify. (So this ...
by bertilak
Sat Sep 29, 2018 8:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New Laptop setup questions
Replies: 23
Views: 2045

Re: New Laptop setup questions

Hi all. Laptop died, so I now have a new one, Windows 10 pro, removed old SSD and got docking unit so I have all my files transferred at 5 Gig/min instead of slow downloading from my cloud backup. 1) which browser to use: Edge vs my old pal Firefox? I use Firefox. No problems. I was using Chrome, b...
by bertilak
Sat Sep 29, 2018 4:55 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: For real liquid cod liver oil.........?
Replies: 16
Views: 1149

Re: For real liquid cod liver oil.........?

When I was a kid my mother made be take a teaspoon of cod liver oil every morning. It was hard to get down but the worst part was burping it up the rest of the day. My mother gave us cod liver oil from an eyedropper every morning. There of us lined up, mouths open, like birds in a nest. I, at least...
by bertilak
Sat Sep 29, 2018 4:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What kind of irrationality causes investors to accept exorbitant prices for active management?
Replies: 17
Views: 1720

Re: What kind of irrationality causes investors to accept exorbitant prices for active management?

I see some related reasons...

Fear that one will not do well with investments.
Hope that one can rely on someone else's promise to do well for you.
Escape the blame for doing poorly by outsourcing the responsibility.

Active management addresses all of that.
by bertilak
Thu Sep 27, 2018 9:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing theory
Replies: 15
Views: 1435

Re: Rebalancing theory

... I'm really big into tax efficiency. Therefore, I try to rebalance with cash flows, and only do a "hard" rebalance when absolutely necessary. Any constructive thoughts are certainly welcome. That is my philosophy as well. Here is what my IPS says about re-balancing (somewhat paraphrased) ... As ...
by bertilak
Thu Sep 27, 2018 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't I read about this strategy more? It seems reasonable and pretty straight forward.
Replies: 68
Views: 8493

Re: Why don't I read about this strategy more? It seems to beat everything else

Hello Everyone, first time post but I've been reading for about a year. ... for sure I can tell which way a line is going on a graph over a period of time. Actually, what you can see is which way the line WAS going. You seem to understand that, based on what you continue on to say ... The key disti...
by bertilak
Tue Sep 25, 2018 11:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [What TV Show Have You Recently Watched?]
Replies: 869
Views: 94692

Re: [What TV Show Have You Recently Watched?]

Currently in the middle of Season 1 of Boardwalk Empire. Steve Buscemi impressed me with his ability to play two characters so different from each other comparing his role in this with his role in The Big Lewbowski and be so convincing in both. None the less, it took a few episodes for me to stop (...
by bertilak
Sun Sep 23, 2018 7:33 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do I allocate social security in retirement?
Replies: 19
Views: 1861

Re: How do I allocate social security in retirement?

I see two purposes to an investment portfolio: Provide income : If you have some income (e.g.SS) there is no need to assign a net asset value and asset class to it just so you can try to predict how much income it can provide and with what reliability -- you already know the answer to that! Provide ...
by bertilak
Sat Sep 22, 2018 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has anyone gone to a Retirement Wealth Academy seminar?
Replies: 17
Views: 1745

Re: Has anyone gone to a Retirement Wealth Academy seminar?

AlphaLess wrote:
Sat Sep 22, 2018 11:24 am
bertilak wrote:
Sat Sep 22, 2018 11:24 am
It is a sophisticated sales pitch.
Or more like a con-artistry scam.
That's what meant by "sophisticated." :happy
by bertilak
Sat Sep 22, 2018 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has anyone gone to a Retirement Wealth Academy seminar?
Replies: 17
Views: 1745

Re: Has anyone gone to a Retirement Wealth Academy seminar?

It is a sophisticated sales pitch for an investment "opportunity" that needs to be aggressively marketed because its intrinsic value is not enough to sell itself.
by bertilak
Sat Sep 22, 2018 11:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are We Headed For A Passive Index Meltdown?
Replies: 60
Views: 9340

Re: Are We Headed For A Passive Index Meltdown?

If an index fund looses value, it is not because of some mysterious attribute of index funds. It is because the assets it holds have lost value and that loss will be felt by all who hold those assets, not just the indexers. By definition, index investors will hold those same assets in the same propo...
by bertilak
Sat Sep 22, 2018 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Still haven't made sense of this 50-50 AA situation
Replies: 9
Views: 1371

Re: Still haven't made sense of this 50-50 AA situation

Taking an RMD does not require you to spend it (other than pay the taxes). My process is to reinvest the cash resulting from the RMD into my taxable account -- put it right back into bonds unless the AA needs adjusting. In that case, invest the proceeds of the RMD in a way to nudge the AA in a favor...
by bertilak
Wed Sep 19, 2018 3:49 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 3333
Views: 1003360

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

ruralavalon wrote:
Wed Sep 19, 2018 3:44 pm
Wild Fire, by Ann Cleeves.

This is the eight and last :( book of the Shetland series of mysteries.
How does the TV series (https://www.imdb.com/title/tt2396135/) compare to the books?
by bertilak
Wed Sep 19, 2018 12:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Guaranteed access for Medigap policies
Replies: 29
Views: 1798

Re: Guaranteed access for Medigap policies

I have some experience with changing Medigap plans. Back when I first signed up I chose N over F after some detailed work with a spreadsheet. Now, a few years later, I decided to switch to F but could not get consistent answers saying if or if not that was even possible and if so, what about underwr...
by bertilak
Wed Sep 19, 2018 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Other investment opportunities besides the stock market
Replies: 25
Views: 1968

Re: Other investment opportunities besides the stock market

texasdiver wrote:
Wed Sep 19, 2018 10:53 am
Abe wrote:
Wed Sep 19, 2018 10:51 am
"In school, you're taught a lesson and then given a test. In life, you're given a test that teaches you a lesson." Tom Bodett :beer
That is my new favorite quote. Thanks
I keep a list of great quotes. That just got added.
by bertilak
Tue Sep 18, 2018 4:13 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [What TV Show Have You Recently Watched?]
Replies: 869
Views: 94692

Re: [What TV Show Have You Recently Watched?]

We recently watched all episodes of Death in Paradise on Netflix once again. These are police stories set in the Caribbean. We thoroughly enjoyed this series. We had forgotten the plots in most cases so they were still mysteries. I enjoy this show, even with all the cast changes. My favorite charac...
by bertilak
Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bank of America credit card “feature” (be careful with autopay)
Replies: 45
Views: 2716

Re: Bank of America credit card “feature” (be careful with autopay)

Statement balances are the only balance reported to the credit bureaus. Usually within a few days of the close of the billing period. That was my guess. When I called to check, the person I talked to did not seem to understand what I was asking. Since the answer wasn't that important I let it drop.
by bertilak
Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equity allocation for Flagship clients?
Replies: 47
Views: 3946

Re: Equity allocation for Flagship clients?

A 50/50 portfolio is very strongly risk-weighted towards stocks, and is a portfolio favoring economic prosperity, given how much more risky stocks are in comparison to bonds. That's one reason why the portfolio that tends to hit the highest Sharpe ratio is more in the 20-30% equity neighborhood. We...
by bertilak
Tue Sep 18, 2018 10:26 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bank of America credit card “feature” (be careful with autopay)
Replies: 45
Views: 2716

Re: Bank of America credit card “feature” (be careful with autopay)

... but why did you manually pay when you had autopay set up already? I use autopay as a fail-safe mechanism. I pay my credit card balance manually several times a month but have autopay enabled just in case I mess up. But why? AHA! You are questioning "several times a month!" I misunderstood that ...
by bertilak
Tue Sep 18, 2018 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equity allocation for Flagship clients?
Replies: 47
Views: 3946

Re: Equity allocation for Flagship clients?

A 50/50 portfolio is very strongly risk-weighted towards stocks, and is a portfolio favoring economic prosperity, given how much more risky stocks are in comparison to bonds. That's one reason why the portfolio that tends to hit the highest Sharpe ratio is more in the 20-30% equity neighborhood. We...
by bertilak
Tue Sep 18, 2018 8:03 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bank of America credit card “feature” (be careful with autopay)
Replies: 45
Views: 2716

Re: Bank of America credit card “feature” (be careful with autopay)

UpperNwGuy wrote:
Tue Sep 18, 2018 7:57 am
But why?
Better answer down-thread. I at first misunderstood the question.
by bertilak
Tue Sep 18, 2018 7:50 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bank of America credit card “feature” (be careful with autopay)
Replies: 45
Views: 2716

Re: Bank of America credit card “feature” (be careful with autopay)

wangarific wrote:
Tue Sep 18, 2018 6:33 am
... but why did you manually pay when you had autopay set up already?
I use autopay as a fail-safe mechanism. I pay my credit card balance manually several times a month (to keep the credit bureaus happy with a low balance) but have autopay enabled just in case I mess up.
by bertilak
Mon Sep 17, 2018 10:43 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to get financially ready for death of parent
Replies: 22
Views: 2624

Re: How to get financially ready for death of parent

Two things that can be a great help: Be sure all investment accounts have beneficiaries defined. Consider having signature authority on an all checking/savings accounts. This is essentially the same as joint ownership. Anything covered by the above need not even be mentioned in a will. I am not 100%...
by bertilak
Mon Sep 17, 2018 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equity allocation for Flagship clients?
Replies: 47
Views: 3946

Re: Equity allocation for Flagship clients?

For the last couple of years we have been at 50% equities, and 50% bonds, or close to it. As we progress deeper into retirement, I would not be against allowing our AA to drift upwards to maybe 60% equities. IOW not rebalance by selling equities. From my ISP (about re-balancing): Our 50/50 target a...
by bertilak
Mon Sep 17, 2018 9:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equity allocation for Flagship clients?
Replies: 47
Views: 3946

Re: Equity allocation for Flagship clients?

restingonmylaurels wrote:
Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:43 pm
So I am wondering, for those who are Flagship clients and no longer in the accumulation phase, what equity allocation do you hold (and why)?
50/50
by bertilak
Sat Sep 15, 2018 6:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How did you decide when to retire?
Replies: 54
Views: 8227

Re: How did you decide when to retire?

How do your total retirement expenses (including income taxes) compare to your total retirement income? That clinched it, along with an analysis of how well my investments would keep up with inflation. But the idea snuck up on me until all of a sudden it was a real consideration. The financial anal...
by bertilak
Sat Sep 15, 2018 6:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is home alarm monitoring worth it?
Replies: 56
Views: 3946

Re: Is home alarm monitoring worth it?

In the end, you're just trying to get them to pick a different (easier) target. It's like that joke: Joe and Moe are preparing for a hike in the woods. Moe puts on hiking boots and Joe puts on running shoes. Moe: Joe, why the running shoes? Joe: In case we get chased by a bear. Moe: Even with runni...
by bertilak
Fri Sep 14, 2018 6:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What can you homegrown financial management spreadsheet do?
Replies: 21
Views: 1306

Re: What can you homegrown financial management spreadsheet do?

The rest of the workbook imports from Quicken ... Can you expand on how you import from Quicken? I get the raw data for my spreadsheet by downloading a CSV file from Vanguard but there is one asset not in Vanguard, thus requiring manually data entry. The data is in Quicken so perhaps I can improve ...
by bertilak
Fri Sep 14, 2018 6:02 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is home alarm monitoring worth it?
Replies: 56
Views: 3946

Re: Is home alarm monitoring worth it?

Police response time will vary depending on jurisdiction and perhaps location within the jurisdiction. Some communities have diligent police presence, others not so much. So, any experiences you read about on the internet are merely anecdotal. It should also be noted that some communities will fine...
by bertilak
Fri Sep 14, 2018 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What can you homegrown financial management spreadsheet do?
Replies: 21
Views: 1306

Re: What can you homegrown financial management spreadsheet do?

The rest of the workbook imports from Quicken ... Can you expand on how you import from Quicken? I get the raw data for my spreadsheet by downloading a CSV file from Vanguard but there is one asset not in Vanguard, thus requiring manually data entry. The data is in Quicken so perhaps I can improve ...