Search found 7679 matches

by Doc
Tue Dec 12, 2017 4:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small cap value vs. total market?
Replies: 29
Views: 1917

Re: Small cap value vs. total market?

How about a chart that doesn't cherry pick durations and endpoints. A five year rolling return chart for SCV and TSM: (DFIHX added to get better presentation of funds of interest by minimizing the aggravating "bars') https://s7.postimg.org/oyjd4jwm3/SCV_vs_TSM_Capture.png http://quotes.morningstar.c...
by Doc
Tue Dec 12, 2017 9:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How are 401k withdrawals taxed when you retire?
Replies: 12
Views: 1404

Re: How are 401k withdrawals taxed when you retire?

Re FICA: You may not be paying FICA but you will be paying tax on your Social Security. It's a somewhat complicated calc but expect to pay tax on $0.85 of your SS for each $1.00 of your 401k withdrawal. This makes your marginal tax rate 28% while still in the 15% bracket. Of course once you pay the ...
by Doc
Mon Dec 11, 2017 4:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard VBMFX/VBTLX Bond Fund performance
Replies: 8
Views: 996

Re: Vanguard VBMFX/VBTLX Bond Fund performance

The bottom of what? Total Return % (12/08/2017) 1-Day 1-Week 1-Month 3-Month YTD 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year 15-Year VBTLX -0.07 0.05 -0.06 -0.57 3.46 3.57 2.28 1.95 4.04 4.21 Bloomberg Barclays Aff Idx -0.00 -0.02 -0.08 -0.56 3.34 3.48 2.31 2.04 4.10 4.24 Category (CI) -0.01 -0.01 -0.07 -0.48 3.5...
by Doc
Mon Dec 11, 2017 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What mix of intermediate and short term bonds?
Replies: 45
Views: 2347

Re: What mix of intermediate and short term bonds?

But intermediate-term bonds caught back up to short-term bonds about 14 months later. So the reality is that one probably shouldn't care too much about the mix of intermediate-term and short-term bonds. That builds on the point I was trying to make earlier. If you split your FI into components and ...
by Doc
Mon Dec 11, 2017 7:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What mix of intermediate and short term bonds?
Replies: 45
Views: 2347

Re: What mix of intermediate and short term bonds?

I am asking myself what mix of intermediate term bonds (IT) versus short term bonds (ST) to hold? Many here hold intermediate term and since the early 1980's that has been a good position. I use a 1-10 Gov/credit bogey and break up the portfolio into four components - short & intermediate, and Trea...
by Doc
Mon Dec 11, 2017 7:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What mix of intermediate and short term bonds?
Replies: 45
Views: 2347

Re: What mix of intermediate and short term bonds?

If you want to optimize FI, use CDs as part of the picture. You get higher yields compared to comparable maturity Treasuries. With direct bank CDs you get lower term risk too, via early withdrawals even under penalty. Obviously you still want some funds and/or cash for the higher liquidity, but you...
by Doc
Sun Dec 10, 2017 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bonds ever better than a Fund?
Replies: 10
Views: 1080

Re: Are Bonds ever better than a Fund?

The only bonds I would buy as individual issues are treasuries because there is essentially zero default risk. Even with treasuries, a fund is an option but I would prefer it be an index fund. Agree with only Treasuries but I would rather be in a low cost, passively managed non-index fund than be i...
by Doc
Sun Dec 10, 2017 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab 25% Cheaper than Vanguard?
Replies: 13
Views: 1366

Re: Schwab 25% Cheaper than Vanguard?

retiredjg wrote:
Sun Dec 10, 2017 2:17 pm
I wonder if Schwab's ETF is more or less tax-efficient than Vanguard's ETF?
I think the tax-efficiency comes from the nature of the ETF itself. Vanguard's structure might make it less efficient because it has to share the ETF benefit with its mutual fund brothers and sisters.
by Doc
Sun Dec 10, 2017 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Vanguard switching all accounts to brokerage accounts?
Replies: 34
Views: 3529

Re: Why is Vanguard switching all accounts to brokerage accounts?

Seems like converting an IRA to a Roth now requires using the MM settlement account rather than in-kind conversion at VBS. Try to verify this. I just tested an exchange of shares in a Vg fund from taxable to ROTH and it appeared it was allowed. (I didn't actually submit the trade request.) I verifi...
by Doc
Sun Dec 10, 2017 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!
Replies: 49
Views: 5481

Re: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!

Thanks grok, So do we belive Swedroe/Hempen or the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta? :D No matter which, the breakeven rate does not equal the expected inflation. But it's probably good enough for those of us not heavily invested in interest rate futures. I go with Larry because he lives closer to me...
by Doc
Sun Dec 10, 2017 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Grok's Tip #8:Retire Worry-Free with TIPs as a foundation
Replies: 152
Views: 41434

Re: Grok's Tip #8:Retire Worry-Free with TIPs as a foundation

I would like to ask the experts on here what they think would be the best strategy for when to buy a TIPS ladder under present market conditions. If you have enough just buy the whole thing now, put your computer in the closet, go fishing or golfing or whatever mountain biking and just enjoy your r...
by Doc
Sun Dec 10, 2017 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab 25% Cheaper than Vanguard?
Replies: 13
Views: 1366

Re: Schwab 25% Cheaper than Vanguard?

Code: Select all

Size	% of Portfolio	Benchmark
Giant		41.64	41.52
Large		29.84	30.58
Medium		19.32	19.21
Small		6.62	6.92
Micro		2.58	1.77
Stormbringer wrote:
Sun Dec 10, 2017 10:53 am
Is there a meaningful difference between the funds?
No.
by Doc
Sun Dec 10, 2017 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Vanguard switching all accounts to brokerage accounts?
Replies: 34
Views: 3529

Re: Why is Vanguard switching all accounts to brokerage accounts?

SpringMan wrote:
Sun Dec 10, 2017 10:29 am
Seems like converting an IRA to a Roth now requires using the MM settlement account rather than in-kind conversion at VBS.
Try to verify this. I just tested an exchange of shares in a Vg fund from taxable to ROTH and it appeared it was allowed. (I didn't actually submit the trade request.)
by Doc
Sun Dec 10, 2017 7:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!
Replies: 49
Views: 5481

Re: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!

With bonds, the inverse relationship between price and yield, means it doesn't matter whether you consider a risk premium to be a discounted price or higher yield. If, at some point in time, the expected value of the liquidity risk premium of a TIP is higher than the expected value of the inflation...
by Doc
Sat Dec 09, 2017 6:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds - Throw it all on the table!!!
Replies: 201
Views: 33127

Re: Bonds - Throw it all on the table!!!

I am curious in terms of how many Bogleheads hold Treasury bonds in a taxable account. Almost all of our Treasuries are in taxable except for a temporary allocation as a "just in case" fund in case congress manages to screw up the tax bill and crash the stock market. Breaking up our core bond portf...
by Doc
Sat Dec 09, 2017 10:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trying to nail down asset allocation for second bucket
Replies: 43
Views: 1416

Re: Trying to nail down asset allocation for second bucket

My motivation for the first bucket is to make sure I have the ability to do what I want to do in my early retirement years when I believe I have the greatest likelihood of being healthy, active and energetic. That bucket can be viewed as an extremely large liability matching bucket. I would suggest...
by Doc
Sat Dec 09, 2017 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trying to nail down asset allocation for second bucket
Replies: 43
Views: 1416

Re: Trying to nail down asset allocation for second bucket

You just have one overall AA. Then put some portion of that in your "just in case" bucket. What assets you use depends on your personal needs and assumed safety concerns but your overall AA is not changed by that choice. When we were in your situation I decided that my "just in case" bucket was goin...
by Doc
Sat Dec 09, 2017 8:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!
Replies: 49
Views: 5481

Re: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!

TIPS should outperform conventional Treasuries when realized inflation is greater than expected inflation plus the risk premium. Note that the expected return of a TIPS should be slightly less than the expected return of a conventional U.S. Treasury of the same maturity because the investors in con...
by Doc
Thu Dec 07, 2017 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!
Replies: 49
Views: 5481

Re: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!

If I am doing this right the nominal curve (red line) is also flattening.

Image

Long data range, sorry. Just look at the right inch.
by Doc
Wed Dec 06, 2017 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard customer service reps need some training
Replies: 66
Views: 6784

Re: Vanguard customer service reps need some training

Emilyjane wrote:
Wed Dec 06, 2017 10:07 am
Recharacterizing seems to be one of the things that cannot be done online (please correct me if I’m wrong on that...)
FWIW Fidelity apparently requires a form. It can be filled out online but I don't know if it can be sent online.

Ditto Vanguard. Search for "IRA Recharacterization".
by Doc
Wed Dec 06, 2017 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Corporate & Treasury Bonds: Where's the risk?
Replies: 21
Views: 1936

Re: Corporate & Treasury Bonds: Where's the risk?

You can pretty much guarantee that any newly-issued high-yield (non investment grade) bond is going to have a call provision that would allow the company to take advantage of an improving credit situation. It's a heads-they-win-tails-you-lose situation. That's similar reasoning to the situation wit...
by Doc
Wed Dec 06, 2017 9:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Corporate & Treasury Bonds: Where's the risk?
Replies: 21
Views: 1936

Re: Corporate & Treasury Bonds: Where's the risk?

You can pretty much guarantee that any newly-issued high-yield (non investment grade) bond is going to have a call provision that would allow the company to take advantage of an improving credit situation. It's a heads-they-win-tails-you-lose situation. That's similar reasoning to the situation wit...
by Doc
Wed Dec 06, 2017 7:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Corporate & Treasury Bonds: Where's the risk?
Replies: 21
Views: 1936

Re: Corporate & Treasury Bonds: Where's the risk?

Corporate bonds sometimes (often?) have call provisions.
by Doc
Wed Dec 06, 2017 7:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Risk question
Replies: 18
Views: 1733

Re: Bond Risk question

AlohaJoe wrote:
Tue Dec 05, 2017 9:11 pm
The Fed increased rates by 3.75% in a single meeting in 1973. By 4% in a single meeting in 1974. By 3.25% in a single meeting in 1978. By 5.5% in a single meeting in 1979.
That's spikes.
by Doc
Wed Dec 06, 2017 7:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard customer service reps need some training
Replies: 66
Views: 6784

Re: Vanguard customer service reps need some training

I then transferred $500 from checking. That's a different situation than a credit resulting from a sale. Nevertheless my info is from published policy from another broker. Maybe it's not SEC rules. There was a discussion about this here several years ago. If I get time later I'll try to find it. Th...
by Doc
Tue Dec 05, 2017 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard customer service reps need some training
Replies: 66
Views: 6784

Re: Vanguard customer service reps need some training

Vanguard does allow you to game the settlement dates for their own mutual funds by selling an ETF at T+2 and immediately using the proceeds to buy a mutual fund at T+1. They can do this because they are mutual funds, and not stocks or ETFs. I don't think that's exactly correct. It has nothing to do...
by Doc
Tue Dec 05, 2017 2:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard customer service reps need some training
Replies: 66
Views: 6784

Re: Vanguard customer service reps need some training

livesoft wrote:
Tue Dec 05, 2017 2:17 pm
Update: Isn't T+3 now T+2?
:oops: Yes, I forgot?
by Doc
Tue Dec 05, 2017 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard customer service reps need some training
Replies: 66
Views: 6784

Re: Vanguard customer service reps need some training

You can't even do sell-buy mutual fund exchanges at Vanguard because the system doesn't credit pending mutual fund sales to available cash. You have to do an exchange I believe you can on the brokeage platform. I usually will buy an ETF for example, get a "watchout" message and then sell or move en...
by Doc
Tue Dec 05, 2017 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Risk question
Replies: 18
Views: 1733

Re: Bond Risk question

In these kinds of threads usually people mean "the Federal reserve jacks up the target rate for federal funds which leads to bond-ageddon". I think of "spike" as a short term, relatively large and mostly unexpected event. If the Fed did indeed "jack up" the target rate that might cause a spike but ...
by Doc
Tue Dec 05, 2017 7:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard customer service reps need some training
Replies: 66
Views: 6784

Re: Vanguard customer service reps need some training

You can't even do sell-buy mutual fund exchanges at Vanguard because the system doesn't credit pending mutual fund sales to available cash. You have to do an exchange I believe you can on the brokeage platform. I usually will buy an ETF for example, get a "watchout" message and then sell or move en...
by Doc
Tue Dec 05, 2017 7:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Risk question
Replies: 18
Views: 1733

Re: Bond Risk question

Since the value of bond funds typically go down when interest rates rise am I better to ladder individual (high quality, short term) bonds to minimize loss? There have been rate spikes before. Go check how bond funds performed during those previous rate spikes then come back and tell us how much th...
by Doc
Mon Dec 04, 2017 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10-Year Treasury Note Index (TNX) (what does it mean)
Replies: 11
Views: 981

Re: 10-Year Treasury Note Index (TNX) (what does it mean)

If we see the yield of TNX falling, does that mean something like VG Total Bond will generaly rise in price at the end of the day? thanks Yes but with the emphasis on "generally". In a "flight to quality" situation like a stock market crash or some other unusual and negative event the price of the ...
by Doc
Sun Dec 03, 2017 5:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Risk question
Replies: 18
Views: 1733

Re: Bond Risk question

The way I look at it is this: A bond fund is a collection of bonds. A bond ladder is a collection of bonds. There is no reason why they should behave differently (this is simplified, and not 100% true -- but for most people holding bonds long term, this is close to being accurate) A bond ladder and...
by Doc
Sun Dec 03, 2017 3:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Risk question
Replies: 18
Views: 1733

Re: Bond Risk question

Since the value of bond funds typically go down when interest rates rise, am I better to ladder individual (high quality, short term) bonds to minimize loss? Michael Kitces wrote a good article a few years ago, in which he analyzed in depth the very question you are asking: Why Bonds Funds Aren’t N...
by Doc
Sun Dec 03, 2017 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Total Corporate Bond ETF (VTC)
Replies: 17
Views: 2174

Re: Vanguard Total Corporate Bond ETF (VTC)

In response to Personally, for control reasons only, I'm trying to decide on how to break apart a piece of TBM. At first I was thinking of breaking it down into BSV, BIV, BLV (ST, IT, LT bond funds), but then when this ETF was introduced I was wondering if it would be better to divide it TBM into Tr...
by Doc
Sat Dec 02, 2017 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard customer service reps need some training
Replies: 66
Views: 6784

Re: Vanguard customer service reps need some training

I think Vanguard has made a deliberate decision to hire less qualified phone people than Schwab has, presumable because to hire more qualified people would require salaries Vanguard is not willing to pay. As alternative thinking, Vg is getting less qualified people because they are not willing to p...
by Doc
Sat Dec 02, 2017 6:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rolling Returns: A Powerful Analytical Tool
Replies: 24
Views: 1703

Re: Rolling Returns: A Powerful Analytical Tool

Well I wouldn't base all my decisions on a statistical chart that doesn't comment on current fundamentals. It's just a tool. One that it widely underused. No one is suggesting it is the one and only thing you should use in deciding on a fund in which to invest. Current fundamentals are just that - ...
by Doc
Sat Dec 02, 2017 3:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rolling Returns: A Powerful Analytical Tool
Replies: 24
Views: 1703

Re: Rolling Returns: A Powerful Analytical Tool

For bonds you need to see if rates are going down, then all funds do well , or if rates are going up So if rates are going up and some bond sectors have returns going up while other sectors have returns going down then "say what?". Well alot depends on demand, the reason for a 1% spread. If the FFR...
by Doc
Fri Dec 01, 2017 6:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds - Throw it all on the table!!!
Replies: 201
Views: 33127

Re: Bogle on Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund

Even Jack Bogle no longer likes the BBgBarc Agg Index. Doc: If you are inferring that Jack Bogle no longer likes Vanguard Total Bond Market, you are mistaken. This is what he wrote his latest book, "The Little Book of Common Sense Investing." "Deep down I remain absolutely confident that the vast m...
by Doc
Thu Nov 30, 2017 8:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rolling Returns: A Powerful Analytical Tool
Replies: 24
Views: 1703

Re: Rolling Returns: A Powerful Analytical Tool

Everyone, this thread is not about IJS or one bond fund or another. It is about a tool that eliminates problems associated with long term total return charts which tend to camoflage what happens in between. For those of you that are math oriented it's about the presentation of the integral vs the fi...
by Doc
Thu Nov 30, 2017 5:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rolling Returns: A Powerful Analytical Tool
Replies: 24
Views: 1703

Re: Rolling Returns: A Powerful Analytical Tool

It's much easier to "stay the course" if you're not running analytical tools on your allocation components. So if your course is 50% small cap and small caps tank for three years how are you going to feel and what are you going to do. But if you've been running your analytical tools and you know th...
by Doc
Thu Nov 30, 2017 5:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rolling Returns: A Powerful Analytical Tool
Replies: 24
Views: 1703

Re: Rolling Returns: A Powerful Analytical Tool

For bonds you need to see if rates are going down, then all funds do well , or if rates are going up So if rates are going up and some bond sectors have returns going up while other sectors have returns going down then "say what?". The rolling return chart helps you find out when this type of situa...
by Doc
Thu Nov 30, 2017 5:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rolling Returns: A Powerful Analytical Tool
Replies: 24
Views: 1703

Re: Rolling Returns: A Powerful Analytical Tool

I guess that chart does not really convince or dissuade me from small cap. I guess it isn't telling me the same story as it tells you. It's not intended to convince or dissuade you from small cap or anything else. It is just a Powerful Analytical Tool that you can use to help you make the decision ...
by Doc
Thu Nov 30, 2017 3:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rolling Returns: A Powerful Analytical Tool
Replies: 24
Views: 1703

Re: Rolling Returns: A Powerful Analytical Tool

I might have to add these charts to my market timing tool chest. Thanks! It's not just market timing. As an example, small cap (IJS) has outperformed the S&P 500 by some 1.5% annualized over the last ten years. But small cap has a higher variance as seen in this twelve month rolling return chart: h...
by Doc
Thu Nov 30, 2017 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rolling Returns: A Powerful Analytical Tool
Replies: 24
Views: 1703

Re: Rolling Returns: A Powerful Analytical Tool

As a long term investor I’m struggling as to why I would want to look at 3 month rolling returns. 1) Regarding three months: While most Boglehead's may be long term investors they also rebalance and it's nice to know how your fund may react in a market crisis. Would this affect your choice? In the ...
by Doc
Thu Nov 30, 2017 10:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rolling Returns: A Powerful Analytical Tool
Replies: 24
Views: 1703

Rolling Returns: A Powerful Analytical Tool

Rolling period returns can provide a more in-depth view into a fund's performance history than you can get by looking at a single-period trailing return. In a way it's like comparing a panoramic photo of a forest to a snapshot of a small group of trees. http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/articl...
by Doc
Wed Nov 29, 2017 5:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard to launch US 'smart beta' ETFs - Will this board burn down?
Replies: 129
Views: 11299

Re: Vanguard to launch US 'smart beta' ETFs - Will this board burn down?

I thought the out performance was prior to Fama-French. CRSP, V&F, price, total returns, factors discounted with popularity whatever. Here's a 36 month rolling return chart for IJS & VBR. (The ultra short bond fund is only added to get everything on a percent basis and to highlight the funds of int...
by Doc
Wed Nov 29, 2017 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard to launch US 'smart beta' ETFs - Will this board burn down?
Replies: 129
Views: 11299

Re: Vanguard to launch US 'smart beta' ETFs - Will this board burn down?

That chart is not right. It does not include dividends. Look closer, the chart is right even accounting for the Q3 dividend distributions. Of course it's right. It is a price (NAV) chart. It is not supposed to include dividends. :D The problem with the chart is that it is only for three months. Tha...
by Doc
Wed Nov 29, 2017 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fido broken?
Replies: 20
Views: 1158

Re: Fido broken?

I can access the investors site through https://workplaceservices.fidelity.com which is for my pension plan.