Search found 7068 matches

by Doc
Wed May 24, 2017 8:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 401k vs Pension
Replies: 15
Views: 1168

Re: 401k vs Pension

You need both. Teachers in Texas don't pay into social security so basically the pension is just replacing that. If you earn SS benefits also there can be some offset to what you receive if you also have a public or law enforcement pension. Don't know the details but you should look into it before ...
by Doc
Wed May 24, 2017 8:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond vs Total International Bond
Replies: 11
Views: 577

Re: Total Bond vs Total International Bond

I talked to a Senior Fixed Income Specialist from a major broker a day or so ago. She said that one of the reasons for the US yield flattening recently was due to an influx of foreign investors buying US Treasuries. So are you going to buy foreign bond when foreigners are buying ours? Also on the ne...
by Doc
Tue May 23, 2017 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pimco BOND - other Vanguard similar funds or ?
Replies: 14
Views: 968

Re: Pimco BOND - other Vanguard similar funds or ?

Thanks all - for the info and learning.... This is a part of my bond AA, as I have a heavy 80% equity slice, and I keep trying to add more to the bond side - - for ballast being the main reason - for the next financial downturn and abyss - for future fixed income So - keep adding to Wellesley, but ...
by Doc
Tue May 23, 2017 9:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pimco BOND - other Vanguard similar funds or ?
Replies: 14
Views: 968

Re: Pimco BOND - other Vanguard similar funds or ?

I agree with most of what Nisiprius said. The one open question is the Gross departure. Gross left but the rest of the team which is very large remained and some that had previous left have come back. The returns suffered with the fund outflow that Nisiprius mentioned. Performance has improved as th...
by Doc
Tue May 23, 2017 7:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pimco BOND - other Vanguard similar funds or ?
Replies: 14
Views: 968

Re: Pimco BOND - other Vanguard similar funds or ?

I believe that BOND started out as a near clone of Pimco's Total Return PTTRX but without the derivatives. The derivatives restraint was later dropped. The current high MBS is a sector ploy. It might not be there next year. Don't use M* for funds using high levels of derivatives. They can't handle t...
by Doc
Mon May 22, 2017 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield Curve and the Next Stock Market Correction
Replies: 36
Views: 3055

Re: Yield Curve and the Next Stock Market Correction

Been perusing my charts. Added the Wilshire per Nisiprius but decided it was better to just take a particular date and go to that part of the chart. Sooo I looked at the jump across the curve in last quarter 2016. It wasn't the December FOMC meeting it was the presidential election. :o Darn, I was h...
by Doc
Mon May 22, 2017 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield Curve and the Next Stock Market Correction
Replies: 36
Views: 3055

Re: Yield Curve and the Next Stock Market Correction

Just got off the phone with a Senior Fixed Income Investment Specialist at a major firm. She said that one of the reasons for the yield curve flattening recently is increased purchases by foreign investors. It's a demand issue that has nothing to do with US markets - equity or FI. So even the Europe...
by Doc
Mon May 22, 2017 8:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield Curve and the Next Stock Market Correction
Replies: 36
Views: 3055

Re: Yield Curve and the Next Stock Market Correction

There are several concepts running together here - maybe more. 1) Stock market "pullbacks" that have people running to Treasuries - short term effect, stock market driven 2) Flat of inverted yield curve that leads to a recession - longer term, Fed driven(?) 3) Fed actions that steepen or f...
by Doc
Sun May 21, 2017 3:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield Curve and the Next Stock Market Correction
Replies: 36
Views: 3055

Re: Yield Curve and the Next Stock Market Correction

Ironically I was just finished watching a taped news channel segment from yesterday morning while I was eating lunch. The first thing they discussed was if all the turmoil coming out of Washington would affect the markets. (They never mentioned bonds. Probably above their pay grade since none of the...
by Doc
Sun May 21, 2017 3:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield Curve and the Next Stock Market Correction
Replies: 36
Views: 3055

Re: Yield Curve and the Next Stock Market Correction

I see - you are asking if a bond barbell or bullet is better in a flattening yield curve world. The answer would be a barbell. So, adjust your mix to a barbell with the same duration. I agree that the question is about a barbell or a bullet but it has nothing to do with the yield curve flattening. ...
by Doc
Sun May 21, 2017 2:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield Curve and the Next Stock Market Correction
Replies: 36
Views: 3055

Re: Yield Curve and the Next Stock Market Correction

If I understand right, you are asking the following question. Given a particular value (PE 10?) of the stock market, is there a bond duration that minimizes the loss function of the portfolio over time period Y? If you frame it that way, then the answer becomes - no way to know since you have to pr...
by Doc
Sun May 21, 2017 2:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield Curve and the Next Stock Market Correction
Replies: 36
Views: 3055

Re: Yield Curve and the Next Stock Market Correction

However, you then suggested you didn't want to change your duration. So if you are asking if there is a clever way to benefit from this without changing your duration, my guess is no, for the reason I just gave . . . with that side-constraint, I believe you have likely ruled out the sort of arbitra...
by Doc
Sun May 21, 2017 1:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield Curve and the Next Stock Market Correction
Replies: 36
Views: 3055

Re: Yield Curve and the Next Stock Market Correction

But if the "forecast" recession comes, there will be nice gains to be had on the longer bonds - just what you want for your dry powder. I don't care about "dry powder" for a recession. A TBM fund would do for that. I'm wanting dry powder to kill the bear in the stock market in c...
by Doc
Sun May 21, 2017 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Different Asset Allocation for Taxable
Replies: 7
Views: 755

Re: Different Asset Allocation for Taxable

I'm very comfortable with taxable account being 100% equities during early retirement because that is extremely tax-efficient what with tax-loss harvesting, qualified dividends, and return of capital. If someone decides they need an emergency/contingency fund there is probably no tax cost for using...
by Doc
Sun May 21, 2017 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield Curve and the Next Stock Market Correction
Replies: 36
Views: 3055

Re: Yield Curve and the Next Stock Market Correction

My purpose of this exercise was not to address the flatness of the yield curve or predict the next recession. Rather is was to try to determine the duration of any "dry powder" I might chose if I decide the current market/political/economy conditions dictate any dry power at all. As an exa...
by Doc
Sun May 21, 2017 8:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield Curve and the Next Stock Market Correction
Replies: 36
Views: 3055

Yield Curve and the Next Stock Market Correction

Given the news coming out of Washington the last several months I began thinking where the best place was to store some "dry powder". I came up with this FRED Graph that indicates how the yield curve shifts with time. Instead of the more usual presentation of yield vs maturity for differen...
by Doc
Sat May 20, 2017 5:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting conversation with an alleged SS actuary
Replies: 55
Views: 3498

Re: Interesting conversation with an alleged SS actuary

I thought I had once read that the implied discount rate was something really high, like 7-8% (for the average retiree). So, putting aside differences among individual situations, are you guys claiming that the implied discount rate is actually only 2.9%? - This is a bigee. SS implicitly assumes a ...
by Doc
Sat May 20, 2017 9:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting conversation with an alleged SS actuary
Replies: 55
Views: 3498

Re: Interesting conversation with an alleged SS actuary

@The Wizard
The Wizard wrote:You must be referring to Federal taxation of SS benefits

Thanks, added "taxable".
by Doc
Sat May 20, 2017 6:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting conversation with an alleged SS actuary
Replies: 55
Views: 3498

Re: Interesting conversation with an alleged SS actuary

I want the years between 65 and 70 to convert at least part of my retirement accounts to Roth so no SS during those years, I want lower RMDs to lower Taxes pn SS A counter argument to this idea is the risk factor. Pulling down your retirement money faster at the beginning risks running out of money...
by Doc
Sat May 20, 2017 5:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax Loss Harvesting
Replies: 9
Views: 784

Re: Tax Loss Harvesting

Then you aren't taking advantage of the full value of TLH - which is fine if you aren't comfortable with the potential trade-of. If you are waiting to have losses big enough to guarantee they won't be gone in 30 days you will leave a lot of losses on the table and really rarely do it at all OK. Wha...
by Doc
Fri May 19, 2017 6:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax Loss Harvesting
Replies: 9
Views: 784

Re: Tax Loss Harvesting

Yes, when you TLH you need to be willing to be in the second fund for the long term. Can you explain this please. I take a tax loss of $10k. In the next 30 days my replacement asset goes up by $1k. I sell it at a gain and as a result can only save $9k of my original loss to carry forward. It seem t...
by Doc
Fri May 19, 2017 7:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax Loss Harvesting
Replies: 9
Views: 784

Re: Tax Loss Harvesting

AgentHopla It is helpful to the rest of us to use fund names. Many won't bother to look up symbols. That said I try to park my replacement shares in a tax advantaged account using bond funds as needed to balance the trades. If this is not possible try to find something closer like another large valu...
by Doc
Wed May 17, 2017 4:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: LMP-1: P&I article on corporate & public pension plans
Replies: 60
Views: 4290

Re: LMP-1: P&I article on corporate & public pension plans

Once you are putting in a TIPS floor you have have left the world of conventional or, benchmark-driven, investing strategies and entered the world of LDI or, dedicated portfolio, strategies. Any investment strategy that matches some assets to liabilities is an LDI strategy. That includes LMP, which...
by Doc
Tue May 16, 2017 6:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Penfed IRA Certificates for 59.5+ y o vs. other IRA CDs with better yield
Replies: 33
Views: 2186

Re: Penfed IRA Certificates for 59.5+ y o vs. other IRA CDs with better yield

But I'm not going to park it in a PenFed CD even with Kevin holding my hand on how to do it. :beer I share Kevin's line of thinking, which I think is very sound. Nothing is certain, and so we have to go on our best guesses. Chacun a son gout. Kevin is in a different tax situation than me. Putting s...
by Doc
Mon May 15, 2017 4:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best way to hold Treasury Bills???
Replies: 37
Views: 3225

Re: Best way to hold Treasury Bills???

Very interesting indeed. Maybe half of my bond position needs to be in cash , with the other half in intermediate term treasury index fund. I have a similar percentage of what you are calling "cash" but it is in the form of short term T-Notes and/or short Treasury funds/ETFs. I only go to...
by Doc
Mon May 15, 2017 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Penfed IRA Certificates for 59.5+ y o vs. other IRA CDs with better yield
Replies: 33
Views: 2186

Re: Penfed IRA Certificates for 59.5+ y o vs. other IRA CDs with better yield

The following is quoted from depositaccounts.com blog...this makes me feel more confident that better deals are likely to pop up in the relatively near future: OK rates are expected to go up. But everybody or at least 73.8% (CME Group) of them think the same thing so it's already baked into the cak...
by Doc
Mon May 15, 2017 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Penfed IRA Certificates for 59.5+ y o vs. other IRA CDs with better yield
Replies: 33
Views: 2186

Re: Penfed IRA Certificates for 59.5+ y o vs. other IRA CDs with better yield

Why is the CD in an IRA? In the 25% bracket with 15% QDIV tax rate and a 10% effective LTCG rate a CD at 3% is slightly more tax efficient than the S&P 500 with a 1.89% TTM yield and an assumed 6% NAV growth rate. Until interest rates go up significantly CD's probably should be in taxable for ma...
by Doc
Mon May 15, 2017 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Penfed IRA Certificates for 59.5+ y o vs. other IRA CDs with better yield
Replies: 33
Views: 2186

Re: Penfed IRA Certificates for 59.5+ y o vs. other IRA CDs with better yield

@Kevin On the first link I chose "IRA Certificates" before looking at the disclosures and the exception wasn't there. On the second link I had actually downloaded the PDF but didn't find the exception. AARRGGHH!!! But it doesn't do me any good. I'm not eligible to join. :annoyed Thanks Kevin
by Doc
Mon May 15, 2017 8:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Disappointed with the Vanguard experience so far
Replies: 11
Views: 2411

Re: Disappointed with the Vanguard experience so far

We have an open transfer to Vanguard from last December. Calls to customer service have proved fruitless. Since the amount involved is 0.00 I'm ignoring it but you would think it wold not take much to make nothing go away and stop alerting me to "track your transfer" every time I log on. S...
by Doc
Mon May 15, 2017 8:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best way to hold Treasury Bills???
Replies: 37
Views: 3225

Re: Best way to hold Treasury Bills???

If you are going to buy several thosand bonds I would suggest you look elsewhere for your broker. :D Elsewhere? :confused You mean not Fidelity? Yes. If they are buying/selling from their inventory I would be wary of buying very large quantities. If you wan to buy at Fidelity at least get a quote f...
by Doc
Mon May 15, 2017 8:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Penfed IRA Certificates for 59.5+ y o vs. other IRA CDs with better yield
Replies: 33
Views: 2186

Re: Penfed IRA Certificates for 59.5+ y o vs. other IRA CDs with better yield

I think you must have missed the main point of this thread. Did you read the OP? In about the fourth reply I confirmed that protagonist's understanding was correct according to the CD disclosure on the PenFed website. Here it is again: (3) Exceptions. The penalties described above will not be appli...
by Doc
Sun May 14, 2017 6:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best way to hold Treasury Bills???
Replies: 37
Views: 3225

Re: Best way to hold Treasury Bills???

OP uses Fidelity, but in case anyone's curious, Vanguard also makes it simple. I believe that Fido buy/sells from their own inventory in many cases which can be good or bad depending on the size of the order. In any case trading costs are low and almost zero for 25 bonds and above. If you are going...
by Doc
Sun May 14, 2017 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Penfed IRA Certificates for 59.5+ y o vs. other IRA CDs with better yield
Replies: 33
Views: 2186

Re: Penfed IRA Certificates for 59.5+ y o vs. other IRA CDs with better yield

Again, you're not understanding the actual yield premium because you keep ignoring that the duration of the CD is 0 years. The yield premium is about 140 basis points compared to a Treasury of comparable duration. I am having a real problem about this zero duration concept. Part of it is that in th...
by Doc
Sun May 14, 2017 10:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Penfed IRA Certificates for 59.5+ y o vs. other IRA CDs with better yield
Replies: 33
Views: 2186

Re: Penfed IRA Certificates for 59.5+ y o vs. other IRA CDs with better yield

Nonsense. Duration is duration regardless of which way interest rates move. If you want to hold any fixed income with low term risk, you certainly are better off earning 2.1% than 0.7% with duration close to 0 years for both investments. That doesn't prevent you from also taking term risk with othe...
by Doc
Sun May 14, 2017 8:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SPIVA U.S. 2016 Scorecard Question
Replies: 1
Views: 192

Re: SPIVA U.S. 2016 Scorecard Question

I was looking at the SPIVA U.S. 2016 Scorecard (https://us.spindices.com/documents/spiva/spiva-us-year-end-2016.pdf) more specifically, where it shows all the different bond indexes on page 19 (Report 11: Percentage of Fixed Income Funds Outperformed by Benchmarks), and I don't see the "Barcla...
by Doc
Sun May 14, 2017 5:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best way to hold Treasury Bills???
Replies: 37
Views: 3225

Re: Best way to hold Treasury Bills???

... Many years ago I looked at Treasury Direct and if you sold before maturity they farmed the sale out to a broker and the cost was a whole lot higher than selling at Fido/Schwab/Vanguard. The good news is they no longer charge anything for that service. The bad news is it's because they no longer...
by Doc
Sat May 13, 2017 5:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best way to hold Treasury Bills???
Replies: 37
Views: 3225

Re: Best way to hold Treasury Bills???

We've been buying Treasuries at auction with no fee at Schwab and Fideltiy recently. They are both very convenient. Treasury Direct might be the way to go if you want a higher level or privacy, i.e. no brokerage reps would know you're a "high roller" and call you offering their "advi...
by Doc
Sat May 13, 2017 4:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What happens to BND (Total Bond Index) during a downturn
Replies: 43
Views: 3292

Re: What happens to BND (Total Bond Index) during a downturn

I'm not paying a lot of attention to this thread so if this is a duplicate I apologize. Furthermore, morningstar.com will give a different chart if one charts BND alone and if one charts VBMFX alone. If one charts VBMFX, then Total Return is charted. If one charts BND, then price is charted. And if ...
by Doc
Sat May 13, 2017 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Penfed IRA Certificates for 59.5+ y o vs. other IRA CDs with better yield
Replies: 33
Views: 2186

Re: Penfed IRA Certificates for 59.5+ y o vs. other IRA CDs with better yield

You left out an important qualifier about "a T-note", which is the duration. The 7-year CD we're discussing has a duration of 0 years in the context we're considering. If you only consider that interest rates have nowhere to go but up you can think about it that way. But if interest rates...
by Doc
Sat May 13, 2017 9:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Penfed IRA Certificates for 59.5+ y o vs. other IRA CDs with better yield
Replies: 33
Views: 2186

Re: Penfed IRA Certificates for 59.5+ y o vs. other IRA CDs with better yield

What you're missing is that we're just looking at the PenFed CD as a parking place while waiting for a better rate. We've seen several 3% CD deals (3-year, 5-year, 7-year) in recent months and over the last few years, so there's little reason to think we won't see a similar deal show up in the near...
by Doc
Sat May 13, 2017 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Penfed IRA Certificates for 59.5+ y o vs. other IRA CDs with better yield
Replies: 33
Views: 2186

Re: Penfed IRA Certificates for 59.5+ y o vs. other IRA CDs with better yield

Nothing is risk-free. Nonetheless, I think that, especially if you want to keep the option open of early redemption, the risk associated with a CD which is at least allegedly EWP-free is less than that with a T-note. You missed my point. A widely assumed assumption is that the best estimate of the ...
by Doc
Fri May 12, 2017 12:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Penfed IRA Certificates for 59.5+ y o vs. other IRA CDs with better yield
Replies: 33
Views: 2186

Re: Penfed IRA Certificates for 59.5+ y o vs. other IRA CDs with better yield

My understanding (rather rudimentary, so if I am wrong, please somebody correct me...) T-notes operate like other bonds. The principle is not guaranteed unless you hold to maturity. If interest rates rise and you want to sell prematurely, the value of your note will drop and you will be forced to s...
by Doc
Fri May 12, 2017 10:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Penfed IRA Certificates for 59.5+ y o vs. other IRA CDs with better yield
Replies: 33
Views: 2186

Re: Penfed IRA Certificates for 59.5+ y o vs. other IRA CDs with better yield

Penfed is offering a 7 yr IRA Certificate at 2.12% APY. The current yield on the 7 year US Treasury is 2.20%. No EWP and both the principle and the interest are guaranteed not just the principle. Minimum $1000 at most brokers and less at Treasury direct. https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/dat...
by Doc
Thu May 11, 2017 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Even if active managers aren't better at picking winners, can't they be better at picking losers?
Replies: 13
Views: 1430

Re: Even if active managers aren't better at picking winners, can't they be better at picking losers?

There is at least one study (SPIVA?) that I have seen that showed the while past outstanding performance is not persistant, poor past performance tends to be to the contrary. This may be the reasoning behind the SPIVA reports correcting for surviorship bias. If you compare Vanguards active vs. passi...
by Doc
Thu May 11, 2017 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Brokerage Account
Replies: 9
Views: 1172

Re: Vanguard Brokerage Account

I find the mutual fund type of account easier to work with. If all I want to buy are Vanguard mutual funds, I don't need a sweep account. I can also make automatic exchanges between my mutual funds. I believe you cannot do that in the brokerage account. It appears to allow me to do that. Set up or ...
by Doc
Thu May 11, 2017 7:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Brokerage Account
Replies: 9
Views: 1172

Re: Vanguard Brokerage Account

It was really confusing and I'm sure I didn't completely understand it but I think the "upgrade" had something to do with new regulations requiring the federal money market fund rather than the prime (or other non federal) money market fund. All said, it's nicer because you don't have to ...
by Doc
Sun May 07, 2017 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I sell this fund?
Replies: 5
Views: 496

Re: Should I sell this fund?

Trying to figure out if it was time to sell always seems like the hardest part to me. I wouldn't be picking mutual funds, but I can relate from picking individual stocks. The classic line is " if you wouldn't buy it today, you should sell it ". It always seemed to me, the best performance...
by Doc
Sun May 07, 2017 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Wondering how to convert to Admiral Shares?"
Replies: 20
Views: 2260

Re: "Wondering how to convert to Admiral Shares?"

grabiner wrote:I was notified later ...

How much later?
Do you think the time has anything to do with your AUM at Vanguard?
by Doc
Sun May 07, 2017 9:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I sell this fund?
Replies: 5
Views: 496

Should I sell this fund?

When I buy a new fund I use a screening method to limit my choices: Portfolio composition: M* category and style equal to (whatever) Low Cost: e/r and turnover < than (some number) Performance: Risk adjusted performance NOT in the bottom third over multiple time periods. (My dog killer) Consistency:...

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