Search found 7464 matches

by Doc
Mon Sep 25, 2017 7:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Upgrade and Quicken
Replies: 4
Views: 795

Re: Vanguard Upgrade and Quicken

Vanguard has recently fixed some issues with downloading transactions from Brokerage accounts to Quicken, mainly related to the settlement fund (Federal Money Market). A remaining issue is that a purchase of the settlement fund downloads the correct dollar amount but zero shares. You must edit thes...
by Doc
Sun Sep 24, 2017 7:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees, what is your marginal tax rate?
Replies: 83
Views: 7356

Re: Retirees, what is your marginal tax rate?

Watty wrote:
Sat Sep 23, 2017 8:48 pm
If you are married then you also need to consider what the tax rates will be if one of you survives the other and starts filing single tax returns
Whoa. Never thought of that one. Thanks.
by Doc
Sat Sep 23, 2017 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VG wants everyone to transfer to a brokerage account?
Replies: 47
Views: 3461

Re: VG wants everyone to transfer to a brokerage account?

Because of the Equifax hack, the IRS is encouraging everyone to file their taxes as early as possible. Brokerage accounts deliver their 1099s much later than mutual fund accounts, and thus increase the risk of fraudulent tax returns being filed in your name. It is not the type of the account that c...
by Doc
Sat Sep 23, 2017 8:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees, what is your marginal tax rate?
Replies: 83
Views: 7356

Re: Retirees, what is your marginal tax rate?

Because of Social Security "reduced tax phaseout" our marginal tax rate is 27.75%.

We are in the 15% tax bracket.
by Doc
Sat Sep 23, 2017 7:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VG wants everyone to transfer to a brokerage account?
Replies: 47
Views: 3461

Re: VG wants everyone to transfer to a brokerage account?

All the people who are completely unconcerned with reinvestment of dividends have probably never been confronted with Vg's IT method of treating wash sales which completely negates the use of specific ID cost basis. As dbr stated reinvestment of dividends in a different fund is a personal choice. Fo...
by Doc
Fri Sep 22, 2017 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VG wants everyone to transfer to a brokerage account?
Replies: 47
Views: 3461

Re: VG wants everyone to transfer to a brokerage account?

I haven't upgraded and won't until forced. *We only use mutual funds *Have multiple auto-exchanges set up between MM fund and other funds, which isn't possible in brokerage *Have dividends from one fund directed to another fund, which isn't possible in brokerage Upgrading to a brokerage would derai...
by Doc
Fri Sep 22, 2017 3:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oil - Price & Supply/Demand Conundrum
Replies: 59
Views: 2987

Re: Oil - Price & Supply/Demand Conundrum

This is way too complex for an individual investor to determine. As an example, when oil is at, say $60, frackers might use futures contracts to lock in their price so that their project is still profitable even if oil prices drop significantly. I've read that OPEC's current goal is to find a way t...
by Doc
Fri Sep 22, 2017 2:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oil - Price & Supply/Demand Conundrum
Replies: 59
Views: 2987

Re: Oil - Price & Supply/Demand Conundrum

: Should we overweight or underweight the energy sector of our portfolios? I may have missed something subtle here, but couldn't this same question be asked about every sector every day? For example, hit a couple of financial headlines & question whether the financial sector should be over/under? N...
by Doc
Fri Sep 22, 2017 8:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees, what is your marginal tax rate?
Replies: 83
Views: 7356

Re: Retirees, what is your marginal tax rate?

Social security taxation was mentioned up thread but largely ignored. After some relatively low income level 85% of your SS becomes taxable. So in the 15% bracket your marginal rate is 28.5%. in the past Grabiner has comented that the phaseout can continue in the 25% bracket.

Be aware.
by Doc
Fri Sep 22, 2017 8:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard upgraded my accounts - angry [Brokerage Services]
Replies: 159
Views: 19748

Re: Vanguard upgraded my accounts - angry [Brokerage Services]

I have a vague recollection that some people that are employed in the brokerage industry and maybe their spouses cannot have a brokerage account at another firm. Mutual fund only accounts are excluded.

Maybe someone can confirm.
by Doc
Wed Sep 20, 2017 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Federal Reserve September 2017 meeting
Replies: 5
Views: 752

Re: Federal Reserve September 2017 meeting

Prices of Treasuries in the 5 year duration range immediate dropped by 0.3%.

And the Treasury quotes on the Vg site went from ridiculous to normal. (Other brokers did not exhibit the same issue.)
by Doc
Wed Sep 20, 2017 3:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Customer Service
Replies: 295
Views: 30903

Re: Vanguard Customer Service

However, more consistent with most of my previous experiences with them, they messed up all of the cost basis information during the transfer. What was a $201k unrealized gain before the conversion was a $482k gain after; what was a $40k gain before was a $276 loss after; what was a $8k gain before...
by Doc
Wed Sep 20, 2017 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oil - Price & Supply/Demand Conundrum
Replies: 59
Views: 2987

Re: Oil - Price & Supply/Demand Conundrum

I did buy (refined) oil yesterday which is down sharply in the recent few weeks. About a 1/2 barrel at $92 a barrel. Where are you located? US gas prices have not dropped sharply in the past few weeks. In fact, quite the opposite due to refinery issues related to Harvey. http://www.gasbuddy.com/Cha...
by Doc
Wed Sep 20, 2017 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oil - Price & Supply/Demand Conundrum
Replies: 59
Views: 2987

Re: Oil - Price & Supply/Demand Conundrum

Not all US oil has the same production cost. Some is profitable at $20, while some is not profitable at $60. My advice, after more than 20 years in the oil business, is to neither over nor underweight energy in your portfolio. Yes obviously the there are different production costs. Apparently curre...
by Doc
Wed Sep 20, 2017 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oil - Price & Supply/Demand Conundrum
Replies: 59
Views: 2987

Oil - Price & Supply/Demand Conundrum

Oil is over $50 a barrel. An expert on TV was asked if this was due to the recent OPEC announcement. LONDON (Reuters) - Oil headed for its largest third-quarter gain in 13 years as prices rose on Wednesday after the Iraqi oil minister said OPEC and its partners are considering extending or deepening...
by Doc
Mon Sep 18, 2017 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Equity: Are managed funds better than Index funds?
Replies: 35
Views: 2160

Re: International Equity: Are managed funds better than Index funds?

lack_ey wrote:
Mon Sep 18, 2017 2:33 pm
Moreover there is no "sensible way" to define things ...
I read the Sharpe quote a couple of times every year and I always get a laugh out of "sensible'.
by Doc
Mon Sep 18, 2017 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Equity: Are managed funds better than Index funds?
Replies: 35
Views: 2160

Re: International Equity: Are managed funds better than Index funds?

Though under Sharpe's definition, index funds following anything other than the total market are active too. If "active" and "passive" management styles are defined in sensible ways I guess the hangup here is "sensible ways". I'm not sure how lack_ey got where is but I would guess that he is using ...
by Doc
Mon Sep 18, 2017 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Equity: Are managed funds better than Index funds?
Replies: 35
Views: 2160

Re: International Equity: Are managed funds better than Index funds?

So you do need to check the data. I think William Sharpe can do the math. "If "active" and "passive" management styles are defined in sensible ways, it must be the case that (1) before costs, the return on the average actively managed dollar will equal the return on the average passively managed do...
by Doc
Mon Sep 18, 2017 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can a TIPS ladder 'fail' ?
Replies: 101
Views: 8542

Re: Can a TIPS ladder 'fail' ?

Thanks #cruncher, I guess I'm not as conversant with Fed speak that I thought.

And thanks to Nisiprius also.
by Doc
Mon Sep 18, 2017 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Equity: Are managed funds better than Index funds?
Replies: 35
Views: 2160

Re: International Equity: Are managed funds better than Index funds?

A very valid, and important, point. My best guess is that the SPIVA reports put out by Standard and Poors would look quite different if they were rerun after excluding funds that had consistently bottom quartile performance. This would likely have the greatest impact with bond funds and internation...
by Doc
Sun Sep 17, 2017 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Difference Between Risk and Uncertainty
Replies: 41
Views: 2697

Re: The Difference Between Risk and Uncertainty

lack_ey wrote:
Sun Sep 17, 2017 5:49 pm
Risk in most contexts is a potential negative outcome, ...
That's where the problem lies. Investers think of risk as losing money. But statistictions this of risk in terms of standard deviation which is both plus and minus. We all need to keep the distinction in mind.
by Doc
Sun Sep 17, 2017 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Distressing news -> Flight to Safety ?
Replies: 75
Views: 6725

Re: Distressing news -> Flight to Safety ?

Regarding "dry power" My Treasury allocation is targeted at 56% and is currently 54%. The treasuries held either directly or in a Treasury fund is 47% right now with a duration of 4.3 years. I consider that 47% as dry powder. The target is the BBgBarc Intermediate (1-10) Government/Credit Index with...
by Doc
Sun Sep 17, 2017 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Equity: Are managed funds better than Index funds?
Replies: 35
Views: 2160

Re: International Equity: Are managed funds better than Index funds?

However, frequently the reason why funds have 1 and 2-star ratings is because of high expense ratios, so this might be a case where a low star rating is just an indirect proxy for high expenses? Morningstar Screen: (Distinct Portfolio Only = Yes) and (Fund Category = U.S. Equity) and (Morningstar R...
by Doc
Sun Sep 17, 2017 8:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Equity: Are managed funds better than Index funds?
Replies: 35
Views: 2160

Re: International Equity: Are managed funds better than Index funds?

livesoft wrote:
Sat Sep 16, 2017 8:27 pm
M* does more than ratings which are useless.
Morningstar ratings are not useless if used appropriately. Avoid funds with 1 and 2 star ratings.
by Doc
Sun Sep 17, 2017 8:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Distressing news -> Flight to Safety ?
Replies: 75
Views: 6725

Re: Distressing news -> Flight to Safety ?

@MnD I don't use TBM because of ideas presented by Larry Swedroe and Jack Bogle. I avoid EM when I can because it would be such a small amount of my portfolio and I don't need the worry however small or unlikely any risk may be. Whether "distressing news" has been properly priced is unknowable until...
by Doc
Sat Sep 16, 2017 6:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Distressing news -> Flight to Safety ?
Replies: 75
Views: 6725

Re: Distressing news -> Flight to Safety ?

@nisiprius
No argument. These are the kinds of ideas that I wanted to elicit with the original post.

Whether one agrees or disagrees depends a lot on our own risk/reward viewpoint.
by Doc
Sat Sep 16, 2017 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Distressing news -> Flight to Safety ?
Replies: 75
Views: 6725

Re: Distressing news -> Flight to Safety ?

I think you missed my point. The point was that there was only a 50 bps advantage of intermediate-term Treasuries over TBM for the 3-month period Nov 2008 - Jan 2009. To get a larger benefit, you're timing would have to have been really spot on. It is not about the total return of Treasuries vs. TB...
by Doc
Sat Sep 16, 2017 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Distressing news -> Flight to Safety ?
Replies: 75
Views: 6725

Re: Distressing news -> Flight to Safety ?

Just looking at monthly returns, Vanguard intermediate-term Treasury fund beat TBM by about two percentage points in November 2008, but only by about 30 basis points in December, and then it gave back about 1.7 percentage points more than TBM in January 2009. So over the 3-month period the advantag...
by Doc
Sat Sep 16, 2017 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Distressing news -> Flight to Safety ?
Replies: 75
Views: 6725

Re: Distressing news -> Flight to Safety ?

And has anyone posted a chart showing how TBM compared with various Treasury Funds during periods of Crisis? (or has the composition of TBM changed over time; perhaps enough that historical data doesn't help right now?) Some 35 year 12 month rolling return of Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury Fun...
by Doc
Sat Sep 16, 2017 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Distressing news -> Flight to Safety ?
Replies: 75
Views: 6725

Re: Distressing news -> Flight to Safety ?

All the information and conjecture you have plus much more is priced into treasury, agency and corporate bonds. Your "event" might indeed happen and prices may move the opposite of your expectations. That's really common actually. So for this to work you have to be right about the event, right abou...
by Doc
Sat Sep 16, 2017 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Distressing news -> Flight to Safety ?
Replies: 75
Views: 6725

Re: Distressing news -> Flight to Safety ?

Having said all this I always hate bonds at 2.20 and below on the 10 year in this environment, and while not as afraid as I once was of a bond disaster, I don't really not a fan of Bond Funds with an essentially fixed duration at this juncture so I personally prefer CDs or Individual Bonds that I w...
by Doc
Sat Sep 16, 2017 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Distressing news -> Flight to Safety ?
Replies: 75
Views: 6725

Re: Distressing news -> Flight to Safety ?

And you will then move back into TBM when Washington is functioned like a well-oiled bipartisan machine, international bad guys all throw in the towel and are replaced with enlightened and benevolent democratic leadership and the weather and climate is just perfect coast to coast and will stay that...
by Doc
Sat Sep 16, 2017 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Distressing news -> Flight to Safety ?
Replies: 75
Views: 6725

Re: Distressing news -> Flight to Safety ?

You we speaking as though the effect would be an unknown for 3-6 months, I would see it is more like a 1 month period at most, starting a week before landfall. My time frame estimate was based on Washington dysfunction but I didn't want to get into forbidden territory so I used the broader "distres...
by Doc
Sat Sep 16, 2017 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Distressing news -> Flight to Safety ?
Replies: 75
Views: 6725

Re: Distressing news -> Flight to Safety ?

As for hurricanes and government dysfunction, as long as they stay within certain limits those are not necessarily negative events from the market's perspective. I've been looking at a price chart of iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEI) as a quick indicator of what the price of a seven year tre...
by Doc
Sat Sep 16, 2017 7:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Ultra-Short-Term Bond Fund now available
Replies: 74
Views: 17195

Re: Vanguard Ultra-Short-Term Bond Fund now available

Morningstar rates both funds A for credit risk, but I don't know if it's valid to compare credit ratings for funds of different duration. It's the bonds themselves that are rated by the rating agencies not M*. M* uses a weighted average of the bonds to get the fund rating. The weight is the probabi...
by Doc
Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hedge Your Currency Risk When Investing Abroad ?
Replies: 17
Views: 1050

Re: Hedge Your Currency Risk When Investing Abroad ?

Here's a 3 month rolling return chart for the hedged and unhedged version of the Tweedy, Browne Global Value Fund https://s26.postimg.org/xw6y2rnax/Tweedy_Browne.jpg Here's the link to the Morningstar chart if anyone wants to play with the rolling return period. http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/f...
by Doc
Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Distressing news -> Flight to Safety ?
Replies: 75
Views: 6725

Re: Distressing news -> Flight to Safety ?

But what about selling some of that total bond market fund and buying say five year Treasuries. We talk about stocks and bonds when what we mean is stocks and fixed-income, right? In that case wiggling around inside fixed-income would seem okay, as long as you keep your wide, fixed-income diversifi...
by Doc
Fri Sep 15, 2017 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Distressing news -> Flight to Safety ?
Replies: 75
Views: 6725

Re: Distressing news -> Flight to Safety ?

I do not believe, however, that it is time to make wholesale changes in asset allocation based on fear of an imminent market collapse. I am not suggesting making any change in the overall AA just changing the makeup of the bond portion. I am not a fan of selling TBM and moving to Treasuries either....
by Doc
Fri Sep 15, 2017 4:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Distressing news -> Flight to Safety ?
Replies: 75
Views: 6725

Re: Distressing news -> Flight to Safety ?

DaftInvestor wrote:
Fri Sep 15, 2017 4:34 pm
We've always had hurricanes, Washington dysfunction, and tension with other global powers.
Stay the course.
Did you buy equities during the Lehman crisis in '08?)
by Doc
Fri Sep 15, 2017 4:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Distressing news -> Flight to Safety ?
Replies: 75
Views: 6725

Re: Distressing news -> Flight to Safety ?

If you truly believe a storm is coming, exchanging out of TBM into treasuries is a bit like adding plywood cladding to your underground bunker, while leaving your glass windows open. I like that comment but I don't agree. In times that stock markets crash, Treasury prices generally rise steeply whi...
by Doc
Fri Sep 15, 2017 4:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Distressing news -> Flight to Safety ?
Replies: 75
Views: 6725

Distressing news -> Flight to Safety ?

Hurricanes, North Korea, Washington dysfunction, maybe a DOW bubble, so is it time for some protection? OK selling equities and buying bonds is not staying the course. But what about selling some of that total bond market fund and buying say five year Treasuries. Is anyone willing to accept a loss i...
by Doc
Thu Sep 14, 2017 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Customer Service
Replies: 295
Views: 30903

Re: Vanguard Customer Service

This has been my experience as well. I have invested at Vanguard since 1980. Thirty seven years of good service for me. When asked, I recommend Vanguard to others. Vanguard mutual funds are top notch. Vanguard Brokerage Service is a another whole matter. In order to be the very lowest mutual fund p...
by Doc
Thu Sep 14, 2017 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hedge Your Currency Risk When Investing Abroad ?
Replies: 17
Views: 1050

Hedge Your Currency Risk When Investing Abroad ?

Jack Bogle has made the argument that U.S. investors don't necessarily need to venture outside the U.S. market to get global exposure because most large-cap U.S. stocks have global businesses and yet foreign stocks have greater currency risk than U.S. stocks. He (Bogle) did mention that foreign com...
by Doc
Wed Sep 13, 2017 8:09 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds with limited tax advantaged space
Replies: 17
Views: 1458

Re: Bonds with limited tax advantaged space

Doc, did you mean to put the short term treasuries into taxable, not tax-advantaged? Yes. No, senior moment. I edited the original post. Tax efficiency is tax rate times distribution. With low rates on short Treasuries they may be more tax efficient than some equity funds for many. You need to do y...
by Doc
Tue Sep 12, 2017 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds with limited tax advantaged space
Replies: 17
Views: 1458

Re: Bonds with limited tax advantaged space

Another option is to break up the bond part of your 3-fund portfolio into its components and put the most tax efficient parts like short Treasuries into tax advantaged taxable and the least tax-advantaged parts like intermediate corporates into tax advantaged. Edit: Typo, Thanks retiredjg for the co...
by Doc
Tue Sep 12, 2017 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Customer Service
Replies: 295
Views: 30903

Re: Vanguard Customer Service

But again I have to admit my own part in causing this issue in the first place. I wonder how many people have gone to a non-local bank in order to pick up a few basis points on their savings account or get some other kind of "special" credit card reward points. Given the problems that Alchemist des...
by Doc
Mon Sep 11, 2017 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Kids on the Block: Credit Risk Transfer Deals
Replies: 0
Views: 192

New Kids on the Block: Credit Risk Transfer Deals

Executive Summary Created in 2013, credit risk transfer deals are issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The structures are designed to move mortgage credit risk from the agencies’ balance sheets to investors. The goal is to reduce the likelihood that the government (and taxpayers) will need to back...
by Doc
Mon Sep 11, 2017 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ownership of "small cap value" stocks
Replies: 50
Views: 3206

Re: ownership of "small cap value" stocks

OP is correct. SCV stocks have been bid up over the past decade due to perceived bonus. So this lessens any advantage that existed previously. Similarly with dividend stocks, typically larger companies. Certain investors have been crowding into those to get higher "income" thus driving up the price...
by Doc
Mon Sep 11, 2017 7:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ownership of "small cap value" stocks
Replies: 50
Views: 3206

Re: ownership of "small cap value" stocks

Anyhow, it may be meaningless data and I'm certainly no expert but it seems like from a very simple observation of the ownership of these small/value companies that most of the money invested in them is from investors chasing the factor-premium and this seems like it would not only eat up any facto...
by Doc
Sat Sep 09, 2017 4:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SEC plans to approve Vanguard request to list actively managed ETFs
Replies: 10
Views: 1165

Re: SEC plans to approve Vanguard request to list actively managed ETFs

The ETF structure doesn't help bond funds as much with capital gains. If interest rates fall, all bond prices rise, and that causes bond funds to sell bonds for capital gains. Vanguard's bond index ETFs have distributed capital gains, while very few of the stock index ETFs have distributed any. Tha...