Search found 7609 matches

by Doc
Tue Nov 21, 2017 11:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FIFO only rebalancing
Replies: 4
Views: 722

Re: FIFO only rebalancing

Don't comment. Just post links.
by Doc
Mon Nov 20, 2017 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab acct. security tool
Replies: 22
Views: 1362

Re: Schwab acct. security tool

I use Quicken to manage my investment data. Data is downloaded directly from the financial firms. Passwords are stored in a password vault in Quicken but one could enter them manually if that is what you want. Question: Do all of these two factor type procedures defeat Quicken? Same question for do...
by Doc
Mon Nov 20, 2017 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab acct. security tool
Replies: 22
Views: 1362

Re: Schwab acct. security tool

I use Quicken to manage my investment data. Data is downloaded directly from the financial firms. Passwords are stored in a password vault in Quicken but one could enter them manually if that is what you want. Question: Do all of these two factor type procedures defeat Quicken? Same question for dow...
by Doc
Sun Nov 19, 2017 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury term premium estimate: negative this year (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)
Replies: 21
Views: 1529

Re: Treasury term premium estimate: negative this year (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)

From The Only Guide to a Winning Bond Strategy You'll Ever Need, Larry E. Swedroe & Joseph H. Hempen p73 Fama and Bliss concluded that today’s yield curve contains information about future yield curves – current forward rates provide the best forecast of future spot interest rates. In other words, t...
by Doc
Sun Nov 19, 2017 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury term premium estimate: negative this year (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)
Replies: 21
Views: 1529

Re: Treasury term premium estimate: negative this year (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)

by patrick013 » Sun Nov 19, 2017 1:37 pm Doc wrote: ↑Sun Nov 19, 2017 8:32 am patrick013 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 18, 2017 8:23 pm Well it's interesting how they went from OLS to a 5 factor system. How they got the fitted line so close is beyond me. There was a saying in school about regressions. Something ...
by Doc
Sun Nov 19, 2017 9:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury term premium estimate: negative this year (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)
Replies: 21
Views: 1529

Re: Treasury term premium estimate: negative this year (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)

Well it's interesting how they went from OLS to a 5 factor system. How they got the fitted line so close is beyond me. There was a saying in school about regressions. Something like with one factor you can draw a line, with two you can draw a curve ... with four you can draw an elephant and with fi...
by Doc
Sat Nov 18, 2017 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are actively managed funds that claim to beat the market actually "scams"?
Replies: 29
Views: 2589

Re: Are actively managed funds that claim to beat the market actually "scams"?

Beats VTSAX, VFIAX and VSMAX pretty handily from Jan. 2001 to present. Be careful of end points when you are using long term growth charts. You should also look at rolling return charts to eliminate end point anomalies. Three year rolling return chart for Fidelity Low Price stock and Vanguard Total...
by Doc
Wed Nov 15, 2017 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Government Index Funds Benchmark Change - Update
Replies: 0
Views: 209

Vanguard Government Index Funds Benchmark Change - Update

As previously posted the three Vanguard Government Index funds are becoming pure Treasury funds: 3 fixed income index funds to change benchmarks & names ... The benchmark changes will occur over several days in the fourth quarter of 2017 ... There are not making much progress. The following data for...
by Doc
Tue Nov 14, 2017 2:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are actively managed funds that claim to beat the market actually "scams"?
Replies: 29
Views: 2589

Re: Are actively managed funds that claim to beat the market actually "scams"?

Alexa9 wrote:
Mon Nov 13, 2017 6:49 pm
Past returns ≠ future returns
Nobody knows nothing
So if "nobody knows nothing" how do you know that "past returns ≠ future returns" or do you not really know because it's nothing? :D
by Doc
Tue Nov 14, 2017 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: At what rate of return would you keep a whole life policy?
Replies: 21
Views: 1440

Re: At what rate of return would you keep a whole life policy?

They get you confused and distract you from the fact that you "earn" interest/dividends that you won't collect. Won't collect? We get a check every year for the interest on the dividends on deposit for each of our policies where we invest the dividends. This is no different than the money I get twi...
by Doc
Mon Nov 13, 2017 4:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: At what rate of return would you keep a whole life policy?
Replies: 21
Views: 1440

Re: At what rate of return would you keep a whole life policy?

WL does not work like that, otherwise there would be no reason to keep the policy. In the policies I've seen, the death benefit is always bigger than the surrender value; but you are right that you can get only one and not the other. I do not understand all the terms. I just pulled a statement from...
by Doc
Mon Nov 13, 2017 3:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: At what rate of return would you keep a whole life policy?
Replies: 21
Views: 1440

Re: At what rate of return would you keep a whole life policy?

If the person dies, the policy pays $50k. The cash value is gone. What good was the "growth"? If you cash the policy and get the growth (before the death), then you pay taxes on the growth. If you withdraw cash from a cash value life insurance policy, the amount of withdrawals up to your basis in t...
by Doc
Mon Nov 13, 2017 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Flight to Quality:” the old way of thinking?
Replies: 16
Views: 1488

Re: “Flight to Quality:” the old way of thinking?

Your green line seems to be flat as a pancake relative to the movement of the stock price. Is that a flight to quality? The green line is just a gimmick to make Morningstar's charts show the data of interest as a percent change instead of an absolute number like price or total return. The "green" d...
by Doc
Mon Nov 13, 2017 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Flight to Quality:” the old way of thinking?
Replies: 16
Views: 1488

Re: “Flight to Safety:” the old way of thinking?

I don't think you hold Treasuries because you expect to market time a purchase of stocks at a market bottom while market timing the sale of Treasuries. You hold Treasuries to dilute the range of loss (and gain) in volatile stocks. You rebalance to keep risk within a comfortable range. I would not s...
by Doc
Sun Nov 12, 2017 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My favorite bond portfolio
Replies: 19
Views: 2604

Re: My favorite bond portfolio

Nisi's chart without the Total Stock Market in order to highlight the bond sector differences. https://s19.postimg.org/jrmkroi8z/Nisi_s_Chart_Capture_2.png http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart?t=VBMFX®ion=usa&culture=en_US&dataParams=%7B%22zoomKey%22%3A11%2C%22version%22%3A%22US%22%2C%2...
by Doc
Sat Nov 11, 2017 1:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Excel XIRR Question
Replies: 6
Views: 593

Re: Excel XIRR Question

The XIRR function can also give erroneous results for periods less than a year. Add a dummy cash flow of $1 at start and end to make the analysis for a minimum of one year. for periods less than one year, or for YTD calculations, I use: =SUM(((1+XIRR(A3:A34,B3:B34,10%))^(((DATE(2017,11,9)-(DATE(201...
by Doc
Sat Nov 11, 2017 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Excel XIRR Question
Replies: 6
Views: 593

Re: Excel XIRR Question

Doc wrote: ↑Sat Nov 11, 2017 6:54 am I think you have your signs wrong. An IRR calculation is a discounted cash flow analysis. To get your initial balance you have to buy it. The cash flow is negative. Similarly the ending balance is represented as a sale. Positive cash flow. The sign doesn't matte...
by Doc
Sat Nov 11, 2017 7:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Excel XIRR Question
Replies: 6
Views: 593

Re: Excel XIRR Question

I think you have your signs wrong. An IRR calculation is a discounted cash flow analysis. To get your initial balance you have to buy it. The cash flow is negative. Similarly the ending balance is represented as a sale. Positive cash flow. Also if you are reinvesting dividends the cash flow is zero....
by Doc
Thu Nov 09, 2017 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS at a young age?
Replies: 23
Views: 1083

Re: TIPS at a young age?

I don’t believe this is quite right. As I understand it, the inflation adjustments to TIPS’ principal value are taxed as regular income even though it is not actually “income” as we normally think of it. So to my way of thinking they are even more tax-inefficient than nominal Treasury bonds. You ar...
by Doc
Thu Nov 09, 2017 9:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS at a young age?
Replies: 23
Views: 1083

Re: TIPS at a young age?

Thank you for the great replies. Can you also address the portion of the question about how appropriate this bond allocation is for a young person? Did David Swensen mean for this recommendation to be for all ages? In Swedroe's Bond Book he addressed the % TIPS in terms of total Treasuries. The ran...
by Doc
Thu Nov 09, 2017 9:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!
Replies: 36
Views: 3461

Re: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!

Put another way, I think that TIPS "insurance" is currently free, because a significant number of buyers are offsetting it with an emotional aversion to facing up to what real rates currently are paying. Agree. I haven't read the Larry Swedroe source Doc cites. But there are a bunch of federal rese...
by Doc
Wed Nov 08, 2017 6:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!
Replies: 36
Views: 3461

Re: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!

The point is, if I want to buy a ten year treasury today, and have chosen 2% as what I expect for inflation, then a ten year TIPS will outperform a ten year nominal treasury. The breakeven inflation rate is currently 1.88% (2.32 - .44). Of course, my inflation expectation won't be correct, it will ...
by Doc
Wed Nov 08, 2017 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!
Replies: 36
Views: 3461

Re: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!

If inflation is 1-2%, they'll clearly underperform other fixed income. If inflation is 2%, TIPS will absolutely not underperform nominal treasuries (at any term from 5 years to 30 years currently). If you're introducing agency/corporate/etc. bonds, then we're comparing apples to oranges. Agree If i...
by Doc
Tue Nov 07, 2017 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!
Replies: 36
Views: 3461

Re: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!

2% is the minimum real yield I would even consider for purchase of a 30 year TIPS bond. Massive duration risk requires at least that IMO. There is always the chance that you or I won't live for 30 years to wait for maturity in which case duration risk may take a huge bite out of principal value. If...
by Doc
Tue Nov 07, 2017 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!
Replies: 36
Views: 3461

Re: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!

It's the 30 year not the TIPS.

Image

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=fEq4

Consider this my harassment of the 30 year bond idea for the month. :D
by Doc
Mon Nov 06, 2017 3:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Morningstar: Cognitive decline in aging. A strong case for portfolio simplification?
Replies: 98
Views: 7710

Re: Morningstar: Cognitive decline in aging. A strong case for portfolio simplification?

Pssst. "Apple, table, penny." How many people know what I am talking about? Zen question: is it really cheating to know the answer to a memory test by heart? You're not really supposed to remember the three items after you leave the office. And you're not supposed to teach everyone the only three t...
by Doc
Mon Nov 06, 2017 12:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Morningstar: Cognitive decline in aging. A strong case for portfolio simplification?
Replies: 98
Views: 7710

Re: Morningstar: Cognitive decline in aging. A strong case for portfolio simplification?

4) Completely liquidating about two dozen separate TIPS bonds and replacing them with a single TIPS mutual fund. What is your reasoning for choosing between a liquidating ladder and a fund? I'm considering the same idea. Simplification, no more and no less. Simplification at the expense of optimiza...
by Doc
Mon Nov 06, 2017 8:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Morningstar: Cognitive decline in aging. A strong case for portfolio simplification?
Replies: 98
Views: 7710

Re: Morningstar: Cognitive decline in aging. A strong case for portfolio simplification?

nisiprius wrote:
Mon Nov 06, 2017 6:51 am
4) Completely liquidating about two dozen separate TIPS bonds and replacing them with a single TIPS mutual fund.
What is your reasoning for choosing between a liquidating ladder and a fund?

I'm considering the same idea.
by Doc
Thu Nov 02, 2017 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ultra-Short Term Bond (VUBFX) large drop
Replies: 14
Views: 1884

Re: Ultra-Short Term Bond (VUBFX) large drop

For the declared daily funds, the money is not included in the NAV. It's basically set aside each day and ultimately paid to the owners of record on that day. It's a lot more accounting work for the fund, though, compared to just including it in NAV as it accumulates. I don't disagree with you but ...
by Doc
Thu Nov 02, 2017 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ultra-Short Term Bond (VUBFX) large drop
Replies: 14
Views: 1884

Re: Ultra-Short Term Bond (VUBFX) large drop

Many of Vanguard's other bond funds have dividends that are declared daily and distributed monthly. In this case the NAV is not affected by the distribution at month end. The income accrued during the month for each fund account is calculated by Vanguard. You can see the amount online in your accou...
by Doc
Thu Nov 02, 2017 7:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ultra-Short Term Bond (VUBFX) large drop
Replies: 14
Views: 1884

Re: Ultra-Short Term Bond (VUBFX) large drop

Just plotted price chart of ultra short vs short government. Both show eqivalent dips on ex date on a percentage basis.

(On tablet. Cannot post plot easily.)
by Doc
Wed Nov 01, 2017 3:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ultra-Short Term Bond (VUBFX) large drop
Replies: 14
Views: 1884

Re: Ultra-Short Term Bond (VUBFX) large drop

Yesterday this fund dropped 0.20% which seems relatively uncommon - it has moved in a very narrow range between $9.99 - $10.03 for the past few years. There was a distribution yesterday which may have accounted for some of the drop - am I missing out on something else? It's had several one day drop...
by Doc
Sun Oct 29, 2017 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond diversify via StyleMap
Replies: 5
Views: 345

Re: Bond diversify via StyleMap

On a style box basis the above ideas might look something like: https://s1.postimg.org/84rphhd6un/Bond_Styles_Capture.jpg With the left box being a TBM index type and the right box more like a Swedroe. This is what mine looks like: https://s1.postimg.org/8wggq3694f/Bond_Style_GVI_Capture.jpg
by Doc
Sun Oct 29, 2017 10:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Charles schwab - why so much cheaper?
Replies: 53
Views: 7667

Re: Charles schwab - why so much cheaper?

doc and in_reality, I'm simply saying Fidelity and Schwab are for-profit companies and I believe they are cutting back on profit and possibly cost as well to match or undercut Vanguard. I think they wanted to do something to stop losing customers and attract some of the potential new investors shop...
by Doc
Sun Oct 29, 2017 8:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Charles schwab - why so much cheaper?
Replies: 53
Views: 7667

Re: Charles schwab - why so much cheaper?

I guessing that Fidelity and Schwab are currently operating index funds at a loss, but they wanted to stop the outflow of customers headed to Vanguard as well as gain new customers that previously had only one low cost choice. Schwab S&P 500 Index fund Gross expense ratio: 0.03% Net e/r (after wavi...
by Doc
Sat Oct 28, 2017 5:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar responds to Wall Street Journal article
Replies: 23
Views: 3551

Re: Morningstar responds to Wall Street Journal article

Morningstar data is about the only alternative to Fund Co. Data? The raw data that Morningstar uses comes from the funds in a format that meets Morningstar's format. Morningstar then presents that data in a format that is consistent for all funds. This eliminates different funds presenting data in ...
by Doc
Sat Oct 28, 2017 2:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do you think about FTSE Emerging markets?
Replies: 13
Views: 1224

Re: What do you think about FTSE Emerging markets?

I don't know what conclusions are appropriate to draw about this, either. That's why I have a target asset allocation to emerging markets. When I re-balance, I bring my allocation to emerging markets back in line with its target. This is the essence of a successful buy—hold—re-balance approach. I d...
by Doc
Sat Oct 28, 2017 2:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar responds to Wall Street Journal article
Replies: 23
Views: 3551

Re: Morningstar responds to Wall Street Journal article

I am kind of curious who uses Morningstar ratings in their investing any longer? Me. I use 3, 5 and 10 year star ratings less than *** to remove losers. (Morningstar data) I use e/r less than x% of category average to remove high cost funds. (Morningstar data.) I use management tenure > five years ...
by Doc
Thu Oct 26, 2017 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4 Bond-Fund Basics Worth Knowing
Replies: 6
Views: 1203

Re: 4 Bond-Fund Basics Worth Knowing

As a holder of the Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund, I cannot accept that the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is "worthless" to me. Having never been a holder of the Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund, I can accept that the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate bond Index is "worth...
by Doc
Thu Oct 26, 2017 3:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar 5 star rating not meaningful.
Replies: 26
Views: 1777

Re: Morningstar 5 star rating not meaningful.

Rekenthaler Report
'Star Ratings Are Not Predictive'
Except that they are
The star rating is very much predictive! In fact, it is more predictive of future fund deaths than is a fund's expense ratio.
http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/ ... ?id=608627
08-21-13
by Doc
Thu Oct 26, 2017 2:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar 5 star rating not meaningful.
Replies: 26
Views: 1777

Re: Morningstar 5 star rating not meaningful.

Sure, it's not written down anywhere. I suppose my point is just one of asking what the actual purpose of these star ratings is? If it's supposed to help one pick funds at all, you had better be comparing apples to apples. I don't think Morningstar ever made the claim that the star rating's purpose...
by Doc
Thu Oct 26, 2017 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4 Bond-Fund Basics Worth Knowing
Replies: 6
Views: 1203

Re: 4 Bond-Fund Basics Worth Knowing

EHEngineer wrote:
Thu Oct 26, 2017 2:07 pm
Same topic here: viewtopic.php?f=1&t=230681
Maybe if someone posts it again next week it will get some traction. Third time's a charm they say.
by Doc
Thu Oct 26, 2017 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar 5 star rating not meaningful.
Replies: 26
Views: 1777

Re: Morningstar 5 star rating not meaningful.

I just read the (lengthy) article from WSJ, the gold/silver/bronze is intended to be forward-looking based on analysts research ... Just to make things clear the OP was discussing "star" ratings not gold/silver/bronze. I don't think the latter are a quantitative rating but based highly on what the ...
by Doc
Thu Oct 26, 2017 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar 5 star rating not meaningful.
Replies: 26
Views: 1777

Re: Morningstar 5 star rating not meaningful.

The Morningstar star rating is based on risk adjusted returns relative to the category. The fine print under the comparison states "Rating, risk, and return values are relative to each fund’s Morningstar Category." I'm sorry, but since M* itself acknowledges (see Portfolio tab) that the category av...
by Doc
Thu Oct 26, 2017 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4 Bond-Fund Basics Worth Knowing
Replies: 6
Views: 1203

4 Bond-Fund Basics Worth Knowing

Your Benchmark is Worthless Well, maybe not if you're talking about niches like Ginnie Mae or Treasury funds, but when it comes to your core bond portfolio, the Bloomberg Barclays (née Lehman Brothers) U.S. Aggregate Bond Index just isn't going to do you much good. http://news.morningstar.com/artic...
by Doc
Thu Oct 26, 2017 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar 5 star rating not meaningful.
Replies: 26
Views: 1777

Re: Morningstar 5 star rating not meaningful.

Here's a link to the performance chart. And here's the link to the "Rating and Risk" page: http://performance.morningstar.com/funds/etf/ratings-risk.action?t=VSS®ion=usa&culture=en-US (You have to add SCZ using the "compare" button.) The Morningstar star rating is based on risk adjusted returns ...
by Doc
Thu Oct 26, 2017 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar 5 star rating not meaningful.
Replies: 26
Views: 1777

Re: Morningstar 5 star rating not meaningful.

And Morningstar responds. The Morningstar Rating for Funds: A Good Starting Point for Investors?: Though it has limitations, the star rating has, on balance, pointed investors toward funds they can succeed with. http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=824319 On balance, we found that ...
by Doc
Thu Oct 26, 2017 6:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar 5 star rating not meaningful.
Replies: 26
Views: 1777

Re: Morningstar 5 star rating not meaningful.

I think even Morningstar has reported that ***** are not predictive of future good performance. On the other hand * and ** performance does tend to continue.
by Doc
Mon Oct 23, 2017 5:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emergency Fund Allocation Nuance
Replies: 8
Views: 604

Re: Emergency Fund Allocation Nuance

We don't use a TBM fund because of opinions of Swedroe & Bogle. We break up our FI portfolio between taxable vs tax advantaged and corporate vs Treasuries for tax efficiency and negative correlation between Treasuries and equities in a flight to quality event. Our emergency fund is already there as ...
by Doc
Mon Oct 23, 2017 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction-thursday 10/19, yield 0.86%?
Replies: 47
Views: 4281

Re: 30 year tips auction-thursday 10/19, yield 0.86%?

grok87 wrote:
Mon Oct 23, 2017 11:12 am
Hope that helps.
Are you really Larry Swedroe in disguise? :sharebeer