Search found 7136 matches

by Doc
Thu Jun 22, 2017 6:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Email from VG - Vanguard Rep is on Leave ??
Replies: 18
Views: 2169

Re: Email from VG - Vanguard Rep is on Leave ??

Eric76 wrote:
Thesaints wrote:Flagship is the new Voyager Select...


Well said.

And the experienced reps for the old Voyager Select are all "I'll have to ask, please hold".

You don't get to be the lowest cost by paying the highest salaries. Experienced personal expect higher wages.
by Doc
Thu Jun 22, 2017 6:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Intermediate Term Treasury (VFITX) - Actively Managed
Replies: 32
Views: 1508

Re: Vanguard Intermediate Term Treasury (VFITX) - Actively Managed

...The active fund [VFITX] is benchmark against BloomBarc US 5-10 Yr Treasury Index . I am in the process of considering breaking up the Vg intermediate Term Index into its components and didn't realize how similar the two Treasury/Government funds have been in the past. Thanks guys. I don't think ...
by Doc
Wed Jun 21, 2017 9:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Intermediate Term Treasury (VFITX) - Actively Managed
Replies: 32
Views: 1508

Re: Vanguard Intermediate Term Treasury (VFITX) - Actively Managed

Theoretical wrote:Wow. That's crazy for a treasury security.

Negative yield and pp IT maybe is my guess but I was told otherwise.

Vanguard, the new kid on the street, was the only one with bids. Go figure. :?
by Doc
Wed Jun 21, 2017 9:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPS auction 6/22: yield 1.0%?
Replies: 37
Views: 3408

Re: 30 yr TIPS auction 6/22: yield 1.0%?

:wink: Well secondary mkt yield is now 0.91% so 1% very unlikely at tomorrow's auction. I'm now hoping for 0.95% Auction rates are generally a little lower than secondary markets (due to liquidity). .90% is a more realistic hope. I thought the opposite was true. On the run issues are more in demand ...
by Doc
Wed Jun 21, 2017 9:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Intermediate Term Treasury (VFITX) - Actively Managed
Replies: 32
Views: 1508

Re: Vanguard Intermediate Term Treasury (VFITX) - Actively Managed

The liquidity issue does apply to munis and corporates, but not to Treasuries (including TIPS), which are by far the most liquid bonds in the world. Two weeks ago it took me 3 days to sell a $40k position in a five year TIPS. The reason from the bond desk was low liquidity. There were no bids avail...
by Doc
Wed Jun 21, 2017 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Intermediate Term Treasury (VFITX) - Actively Managed
Replies: 32
Views: 1508

Re: Vanguard Intermediate Term Treasury (VFITX) - Actively Managed

I don't see evidence that term risk for bonds, or how to measure it, has fundamentally changed since Lehman. Of course longer duration should be reflected in higher values of risk measures, and if that doesn't seem to be the case, I guess we have to look a little more deeply as to what's going on. ...
by Doc
Wed Jun 21, 2017 9:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Intermediate Term Treasury (VFITX) - Actively Managed
Replies: 32
Views: 1508

Re: Vanguard Intermediate Term Treasury (VFITX) - Actively Managed

I always thought of the liquidity issue backwards. It is the other way around. Two big reasons are: "Reconstituteablity" of the index: People constantly trade into and out of the fund. Funds want to easily buy and sell to match. Pricing: Liquid securities trade frequently (by definition) ...
by Doc
Wed Jun 21, 2017 7:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Intermediate Term Treasury (VFITX) - Actively Managed
Replies: 32
Views: 1508

Re: Vanguard Intermediate Term Treasury (VFITX) - Actively Managed

Term risk should show up in the variance, and hence in the Sharpe ratio, which is a standard measure of risk-adjusted return. Normally yes. But the bond market has not been normal since Lehman thus unfortunately, making risk measures like standard deviation somewhat suspect if we are only looking a...
by Doc
Wed Jun 21, 2017 7:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Intermediate Term Treasury (VFITX) - Actively Managed
Replies: 32
Views: 1508

Re: Vanguard Intermediate Term Treasury (VFITX) - Actively Managed

Most bond indexes only cover 10% of the most actively bonds, if you are willing to take a little liquidity risk you can dip into some of the less actively traded bonds. I always thought of the liquidity issue backwards. The index fund has to buy the illiquid issue at high transaction cost. Meanwhil...
by Doc
Wed Jun 21, 2017 5:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Intermediate Term Treasury (VFITX) - Actively Managed
Replies: 32
Views: 1508

Re: Vanguard Intermediate Term Treasury (VFITX) - Actively Managed

The duration of the active fund had been lower by ~1 year until the last few months IIRC so the risk adjusted return has not been nearly identical. Not to be a PITA, but I really think it has. According to Portfolio Visualizer, for instance, a portfolio of 100% VSIGX has a Sharpe ratio of .92, vers...
by Doc
Wed Jun 21, 2017 7:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: is offering this [Vanguard] website feature feasible?
Replies: 29
Views: 1876

Re: is offering this [Vanguard] website feature feasible?

Do the licensed versions allow your portfolio to be "saved" so you don't need to re-enter it every time? Certainly TRowePrice and TDAmeritrade allow one to have multiple saved portfolios for use with M* Portfolio X-ray on their web sites. Good to know. In that case Vanguard offering the s...
by Doc
Wed Jun 21, 2017 7:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPS auction 6/22: yield 1.0%?
Replies: 37
Views: 3408

Re: 30 yr TIPS auction 6/22: yield 1.0%?

Grok, the yield curve has been flattening, "me thinks you hope to much". :D
by Doc
Wed Jun 21, 2017 6:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: is offering this [Vanguard] website feature feasible?
Replies: 29
Views: 1876

Re: is offering this [Vanguard] website feature feasible?

Right, you want them to provide you all the advanced tools for 'free' and charge the lowest fees... I also hate it that walmart doesn't give me free champagne while I browse but life is full of tradeoffs. Funds give M* data other than return in a format proscribed by M*. In return the funds get exp...
by Doc
Wed Jun 21, 2017 6:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Intermediate Term Treasury (VFITX) - Actively Managed
Replies: 32
Views: 1508

Re: Vanguard Intermediate Term Treasury (VFITX) - Actively Managed

As an aside, Vanguard Intermediate-Term Government Bond Index Fund is something like 97% Treasuries, and duration (and performance) is nearly identical with Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury Fund. The duration of the active fund had been lower by ~1 year until the last few months IIRC so the risk...
by Doc
Tue Jun 20, 2017 9:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: is offering this [Vanguard] website feature feasible?
Replies: 29
Views: 1876

Re: is offering this [Vanguard] website feature feasible?

Right, you want them to provide you all the advanced tools for 'free' and charge the lowest fees... I also hate it that walmart doesn't give me free champagne while I browse but life is full of tradeoffs. Funds give M* data other than return in a format proscribed by M*. In return the funds get exp...
by Doc
Tue Jun 20, 2017 9:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Intermediate Term Treasury (VFITX) - Actively Managed
Replies: 32
Views: 1508

Re: Vanguard Intermediate Term Treasury (VFITX) - Actively Managed

stlutz wrote:On 12/22 VFITX had a capital gain distribution of about 1%.

Capital gains are taxed at a lower rate than interest. The cap gains is probably a result of roll yield which is usually thought of as a good thing.
by Doc
Tue Jun 20, 2017 9:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Intermediate Term Treasury (VFITX) - Actively Managed
Replies: 32
Views: 1508

Re: Vanguard Intermediate Term Treasury (VFITX) - Actively Managed

I hope Vanguard has a good method to identify those Treasuries that will outperform! :) Seriously, the only effect of a lot of these bond funds being actively managed seems to be that the Admiral minimum is $50,000. Why is your metric "outperform" and what does outperform even mean? Witho...
by Doc
Tue Jun 20, 2017 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Does Fed Reduce Balance Sheet?
Replies: 24
Views: 2287

Re: How Does Fed Reduce Balance Sheet?

While on hold to Schwab today I listened to their "market update" which they use for hold music. Came upon this: Will the Fed Reduce Its Balance Sheet? What Bond Investors Should Know Key Points We expect the Federal Reserve to announce by the end of this summer a plan to reduce its balanc...
by Doc
Sun Jun 18, 2017 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Does Fed Reduce Balance Sheet?
Replies: 24
Views: 2287

Re: How Does Fed Reduce Balance Sheet?

As per others, by letting the securities mature (get repaid by the issuer) and then not "rolling" that money into new bonds. I am sure it is published somewhere, but my guess is the duration of the QE portfolio would be around 8-9 years. So, roughly speaking, 1/9th expires every year. Jan...
by Doc
Sun Jun 18, 2017 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Bonds have a place if basic expenses are covered by income streams?
Replies: 69
Views: 3375

Re: Do Bonds have a place is basic expenses covered by income streams?

I didn't read this whole post because there is obviously no single answer. Go back to the overall AA question: What is your need, ability and willingness to take risk? From the Timelord's post he has no need and has plenty of ability. So it's all in the willingness term and that's a personality attr...
by Doc
Fri Jun 16, 2017 5:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Adding new money to bond funds in rising interest environment
Replies: 28
Views: 1964

Re: Adding new money to bond funds in rising interest environment

One problem with this thinking is that there isn't just one thing called "rates"--there are many different rates. Since the federal funds rate (FFR) increase on 12/15/2016, short-term rates have indeed risen along with the FFR, as expected, but intermediate-term rates actually have fallen...
by Doc
Fri Jun 16, 2017 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Favorite Feature of Vanguard Website?
Replies: 64
Views: 4633

Re: Favorite Feature of Vanguard Website?

I like the Portfolio Tester tool which lets you see the impact on your total portfolio of changes you are considering. I'm not familiar with this tool. Can you supply a link? Go to: My Accounts > Portfolio Watch and on the left side near the bottom, there is a link. Thanks celia. Unfortunately the ...
by Doc
Fri Jun 16, 2017 10:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPS auction 6/22: yield 1.0%?
Replies: 37
Views: 3408

Re: 30 yr TIPS auction 6/22: yield 1.0%?

Yes if real interest rates go up your tips may go down in value. But the price of the annuity should drop as well so you should be hedged. But the TIPS price may also go up in value. Assume the current yield on the 30 is 1.0% and you sell it in 20 years with 10 years remaining. Assume the yield cur...
by Doc
Fri Jun 16, 2017 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPS auction 6/22: yield 1.0%?
Replies: 37
Views: 3408

Re: 30 yr TIPS auction 6/22: yield 1.0%?

carolinaman wrote:I understand that TIPS are great for inflation, but do respond to interest rate increases just like other long term bonds. Are my thoughts accurate about this?

And the price increases if interest rates fall. Risk is not on a one way street.
by Doc
Thu Jun 15, 2017 8:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Favorite Feature of Vanguard Website?
Replies: 64
Views: 4633

Re: Favorite Feature of Vanguard Website?

friar1610 wrote:I like the Portfolio Tester tool which lets you see the impact on your total portfolio of changes you are considering.

I'm not familiar with this tool. Can you supply a link?
by Doc
Wed Jun 14, 2017 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How riskier are Aaa corporate bonds?
Replies: 10
Views: 926

Re: How riskier are Aaa corporate bonds?

I think corporates may also have a call provision so it may not be your choice to "hold to maturity".
by Doc
Tue Jun 13, 2017 6:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets Index Missing Big Names
Replies: 30
Views: 3024

Re: Emerging Markets Index Missing Big Names

@triceratop OK. You are way over weighting EM. That's exactly what you need to do if you are going to get a significant effect. Most or at least many Bogleheads won't even overweight domestic small cap value to that extent. I believe that you are taking on additional risk in doing so. Whether that r...
by Doc
Tue Jun 13, 2017 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets Index Missing Big Names
Replies: 30
Views: 3024

Re: Emerging Markets Index Missing Big Names

You guys have reinforced my policy of using only foreign developed funds. With 70/30 US/Foreign and (WAG) 85/15 developed/EM why bother with EM at all. Sleep is sometimes more important than the potential of a few basis points. Extra diversification, being closer to the world market portfolio, and ...
by Doc
Tue Jun 13, 2017 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Favorite Feature of Vanguard Website?
Replies: 64
Views: 4633

Re: Favorite Feature of Vanguard Website?

I don't believe you can buy ETFs on the old mutual funds platform. But no, this was the brokerage platform. If you were using the "old" platform you had both a mutual fund account and a brokerage account. If you transferred $'s from an outside source it went into your mutual fund MM accou...
by Doc
Tue Jun 13, 2017 7:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Favorite Feature of Vanguard Website?
Replies: 64
Views: 4633

Re: Favorite Feature of Vanguard Website?

You can purchase mutual funds in a taxable account from an external bank account without first moving the money to VG. (cannot do that with ETFs however). I did this with ETFs not 8 months ago. Of course I would do some tests first to confirm the money can ACH out of your bank acct in time. Yes. If...
by Doc
Mon Jun 12, 2017 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle Doubles Down on US Index Funds
Replies: 118
Views: 11811

Re: Bogle Doubles Down on US Index Funds

“Every single person I think I have ever talked to tells me I am wrong in this,” Bogle said. “If you believe in the majority, you can just throw my opinion in the waste basket. But on the other hand, I was brought up in this business and I am saying ‘the crowd is always wrong.’” There are different...
by Doc
Fri Jun 09, 2017 5:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Bond Quotes
Replies: 2
Views: 459

Re: Vanguard Bond Quotes

I buy & sell Treasuries on the secondary market but not too often at Vanguard. It is not uncommon to get a slightly better price than what you see on the web or what the broker tells you on the phone. I think they put the trade in as a limit order so the trade will not execute at a worse price. ...
by Doc
Wed Jun 07, 2017 6:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets Index Missing Big Names
Replies: 30
Views: 3024

Re: Emerging Markets Index Missing Big Names

You guys have reinforced my policy of using only foreign developed funds. With 70/30 US/Foreign and (WAG) 85/15 developed/EM why bother with EM at all.

Sleep is sometimes more important than the potential of a few basis points.
by Doc
Mon Jun 05, 2017 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I pay off my 3% loan. Is my return 3%?
Replies: 36
Views: 3801

Re: I pay off my 3% loan. Is my return 3%?

From the WSJ data page http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3020-treasury.html A Treasury maturing 8/31/2017 with 0.625% coupon has a yield of 0.993%. The interest rate is 0.626% and the yield (return) is 0.993%. These numbers are not the same. You guys are getting lost in the words. Forget the w...
by Doc
Mon Jun 05, 2017 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I pay off my 3% loan. Is my return 3%?
Replies: 36
Views: 3801

Re: I pay off my 3% loan. Is my return 3%?

No. You need to solve the Discounted Cash Flow Equation to find your return (aka discount rate, internal rate of return and others.) In this reference http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dcf.asp it is "r" in the first equation. There are a number of online calculators that will solve the p...
by Doc
Mon Jun 05, 2017 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab .03% SP500
Replies: 31
Views: 2145

Re: Schwab .03% SP500

Regarding costs - e/r and otherwise. We call up Vanguard and have a question for the CSR which takes 30 minutes to get an answer. Maybe the CSR's cost for that phone call is $50. How does that $50 get allocated to a particular fund. In theory Vanguard has to somehow allocate that to a the fund becau...
by Doc
Sun Jun 04, 2017 7:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab .03% SP500
Replies: 31
Views: 2145

Re: Schwab .03% SP500

4nursebee wrote:Just saw TV ad suggesting lowest management fees, say they even beat VG. Anyone know the nitty gritty?

No nitty gritty. Just 0.03% along with their TSM fund. The highest e/r for tradional Schwab index funds is 0.06%.
by Doc
Sun Jun 04, 2017 6:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 vs TSM for Small cap value tilt
Replies: 40
Views: 2540

Re: S&P 500 vs TSM for Small cap value tilt

And as to which fund, I looked at it from a 100 mile view, rather than digging into factors etc... I liked that the S&P 600 is smaller than CRSP, has a quality component, and is not as susceptible to front-running as the Russell 2000. Yeah, it is definitely a solid index choice. Also nice in ta...
by Doc
Sun Jun 04, 2017 4:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 vs TSM for Small cap value tilt
Replies: 40
Views: 2540

Re: S&P 500 vs TSM for Small cap value tilt

Again, for me, something like 15% in SP500 works well enough to tell myself my stories, ... FWIW I am 40% small and that means the lower 10% of the market not some fund that calls itself "small". I can't say that the other 60% is SP500 because it may have less growth than the 500 but I do...
by Doc
Sun Jun 04, 2017 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 vs TSM for Small cap value tilt
Replies: 40
Views: 2540

Re: S&P 500 vs TSM for Small cap value tilt

Fair enough, over the longterm it appears they are equivalent cases. But the VBR case will be holding less S&P500, so from a strictly short-term & emotional aspect , if one/all of the FAANG stocks for example has a ridiculous day/week/month, you would expect to see that reflected more with ...
by Doc
Sun Jun 04, 2017 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 vs TSM for Small cap value tilt
Replies: 40
Views: 2540

Re: S&P 500 vs TSM for Small cap value tilt

MotoTrojan wrote:But by needing more VBR/VISVX to match VIOV's small exposure, you are also reducing your exposure to the S&P 500 (and the market majority).


A+B=1

If you increase B you must reduce A. Arithmetic not high finance. :wink:

The mid-cap question is a whole other story if it exists at all.
by Doc
Sun Jun 04, 2017 12:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VTSAX/VFIAX Forecasting Assumptions for 13-22 Year Time Horizon
Replies: 9
Views: 1100

Re: VTSAX/VFIAX Forecasting Assumptions for 13-22 Year Time Horizon

The estimates I would use are 5% real return, 16% real standard deviation per year. Standard deviation decreases with the square root of the time, so for a 16-year investment, you would expect 5% real return with a 4% standard deviation. This would mean a 10% chance of not keeping up with inflation...
by Doc
Sun Jun 04, 2017 7:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 vs TSM for Small cap value tilt
Replies: 40
Views: 2540

Re: S&P 500 vs TSM for Small cap value tilt

NiceUnparticularMan wrote:You typically need to use more VISVX to get the same factor exposure as VIOV.

Thanks for the quantification.
by Doc
Sun Jun 04, 2017 6:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 vs TSM for Small cap value tilt
Replies: 40
Views: 2540

Re: S&P 500 vs TSM for Small cap value tilt

Doc: I was under the assumption based on other threads I had participated in that the SCV Vanguard fund VISVX was adequate for a SCV tilt. I understand it has a higher push towards mid than other micro fund, but that it wasn't incredibly different than VIOV. VISVX 39% MidCap, market cap $3.3M VIOV ...
by Doc
Sat Jun 03, 2017 7:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 vs TSM for Small cap value tilt
Replies: 40
Views: 2540

Re: S&P 500 vs TSM for Small cap value tilt

@nisiprius re charts

Without looking at the actual data I believe that Vg "small" funds are not all that small. They are probably not typical for evaluating a small value tilt.
by Doc
Sat Jun 03, 2017 5:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 vs TSM for Small cap value tilt
Replies: 40
Views: 2540

Re: S&P 500 vs TSM for Small cap value tilt

And understand that value, especially SCV, may lag the market and then explode. Look at what it did in 2016, especially November. Tilting requires a strong will and reasoning for the choice, and patience Right, which is why I don't go all the way to the Larry portfolio. Even if I could sleep with i...
by Doc
Sat Jun 03, 2017 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 vs TSM for Small cap value tilt
Replies: 40
Views: 2540

Re: S&P 500 vs TSM for Small cap value tilt

rayne wrote:Looking at the YTD for the growth stocks vs value stocks certainly did not help.

Don't make lifetime decision on five month of data. :wink:
by Doc
Sat Jun 03, 2017 4:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 vs TSM for Small cap value tilt
Replies: 40
Views: 2540

Re: S&P 500 vs TSM for Small cap value tilt

Buying down risk of the premium diminishing (even over your investment horizon) while still trying to capture some premium. I don't think it's all or nothing. Reducing the Risk of Black Swans: Using the Science of Investing to Capture Returns With Less Volatility by Larry Swedroe & Kevin Grogan...
by Doc
Sat Jun 03, 2017 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 vs TSM for Small cap value tilt
Replies: 40
Views: 2540

Re: S&P 500 vs TSM for Small cap value tilt

If you strongly belive in a SCV premium you should be in 100% SCV per Swedroe's Black Swan's suggestion. If you belive in SCV why would you dilute it with growth stocks and mid-caps. But despite livesoft's remarks about YTM returns one would still expect long periods of under performance of SCV whic...
by Doc
Fri Jun 02, 2017 6:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Ultra-Short-Term Bond Fund now available
Replies: 71
Views: 15157

Re: Vanguard Ultra-Short-Term Bond Fund now available

The fund has to pay >= inflation. Why? What's the point of losing money? Savings accounts pay 1%. Inflation is 2%. Your buying power loses over the long term. Ok but you said that the fund HAS to pay not that we all want it to pay more than inflation. I agree with your concept just was questioning ...

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