Search found 9533 matches

by Doc
Wed May 20, 2020 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Worth replacing International Small Cap (DLS, FNDC and DGS) to VSS ?
Replies: 25
Views: 1264

Re: Worth replacing International Small Cap (DLS, FNDC and DGS) to VSS ?

I use FNDC or SFILX mutual fund equivalent which has been around longer. 12 month rolling return chart with VSS: https://i.postimg.cc/rF4rNdJp/Small-Foreign.jpg http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart?t=VMFXX®ion=usa&culture=en-US&dataParams=%7B%22zoomKey%22%3A9%2C%22startDay%22%3A%2205%2F...
by Doc
Tue May 19, 2020 2:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total market or S&P 500?
Replies: 44
Views: 3571

Re: Total market or S&P 500?

And the reason why it's not worth fussing about is clear if you look at the difference in behavior between an ETF that tracks the Russell 1000, which is based strictly on capitalization (IWB, blue) and one that tracks the S&P 500 (SPY, orange). I took Nisi's chart and reformatted it as a 24 month r...
by Doc
Sun May 17, 2020 11:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Mutual Fund Platform EOL
Replies: 245
Views: 8517

Re: Vanguard Mutual Fund Platform EOL

That's my understanding for the brokerage platform too, ... With the brokerage only platform distributions from all funds can only be reinvested in the distributing fund, sent to a settlement account, or sent to a bank account . Not quite, that " bank account" can be your account at Schwab or Fidel...
by Doc
Tue May 12, 2020 1:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: All small cap international
Replies: 56
Views: 3481

Re: All small cap international

I try to not have my international look anything like the Russell 1000 in order to minimize correlation. So I choose small and value. I avoid EM based on a "sleep well" criteria. I'm currently using Schwab Fdmtl Intl Sm Co Idx SFILX/FNDX and Artisan International Value ARTKX. The latter is no longer...
by Doc
Tue May 12, 2020 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Follow-up discussion on AA around one's retirement date
Replies: 58
Views: 2300

Re: Follow-up discussion on AA around one's retirement date

Here's a good way to completely eliminate the sequence of returns risk. Use the first $699 to buy a Ruger 357 Blackhawk and use it to end your retirement completely if the rest of your money goes down the drain. :twisted:
by Doc
Tue May 12, 2020 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Follow-up discussion on AA around one's retirement date
Replies: 58
Views: 2300

Re: Follow-up discussion on AA around one's retirement date

What you say is logically true in isolation , but if you have 2 million at year 10 due to good sequence of returns in those first 10 years, it is very different from having only 500K due to a bad sequence of returns in those first 10 years. I understand that 2 million > 500 thousand. What I don't u...
by Doc
Tue May 12, 2020 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Follow-up discussion on AA around one's retirement date
Replies: 58
Views: 2300

Re: Follow-up discussion on AA around one's retirement date

I want to make one point at the beginning, because the bond tent seems to create a lot of consternation. I think that is because it is somewhat counter-intuitive to those who have been thinking about retirement for many years and have always seen equity exposure drop in all the graphs they have see...
by Doc
Mon May 11, 2020 6:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REIT Tilt Perspective
Replies: 2
Views: 361

Re: REIT Tilt Perspective

Do you invest in your own home or do you rent?
by Doc
Fri May 08, 2020 1:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds - Throw it all on the table!!!
Replies: 394
Views: 70763

Re: Bonds - Throw it all on the table!!!

abuss368 wrote:
Fri May 08, 2020 12:48 pm
Bogleheads -

Has anyone changed their bond strategy in the current environment of low interest rates?
I'd say probably yes:

Image
by Doc
Tue May 05, 2020 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Check my "roll yield" math please
Replies: 5
Views: 589

Re: Check my "roll yield" math please

Your final result of 0.99% is correct, Doc; but you typed the wrong intermediate result of "1.0384" which I've corrected to "1.0199" above. :oops: The "roll yield" can be determined for either a zero-coupon bond or a non-zero-coupon bond. It has little effect on the result. I use the zero coupon da...
by Doc
Sun May 03, 2020 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VSS really small cap value?
Replies: 19
Views: 1520

Re: VSS really small cap value?

I didn't realize that there was no EM. That's GREAT. :D Yes, for some I’m sure that’s more feature than flaw. Yeh I know. But I do the math: 40%% foreign x 20% small X 15% EM = Too small to measure and certainly not enough to worry about what's happening in some small remote village in Africa.
by Doc
Sun May 03, 2020 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VSS really small cap value?
Replies: 19
Views: 1520

Re: VSS really small cap value?

FNDC? Schwab fundamental ex us small cap This is my fund of choice for all of my ex-US, but like the other options the ER is far higher than VSS and there are no EM stocks . I agree though that comparing to a US fund is apples-to-oranges. Schwab also has a mutual fund equivalent and another ex us s...
by Doc
Sun May 03, 2020 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Check my "roll yield" math please
Replies: 5
Views: 589

Re: Check my "roll yield" math please

Date: 5/1/20 7-year yield: 0.54 5-year yield: 0.36 Price of 7-year note after 2 years: =-PV(0.36%, 5, 0.54, 100) = 100.84 Expected roll yield = 100-84/100-1 = 0.84% Total return = 0.54 + 0.84 = 1.38% Assuming the rate stays the same. I don't do it that way. First: I think we are both using YTM for ...
by Doc
Thu Apr 30, 2020 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time to rebalance by selling stocks?
Replies: 24
Views: 1998

Re: Time to rebalance by selling stocks?

Well, I just rebalanced. I was at 76.8/23.2 and my allocation is 70/30 with 5% bands. I also have 25% bands on individual funds. As a result I sold total US market and small caps (which have been doing spectacularly well recently) to buy Vanguard intermediate term tax-exempt bonds. I feel like an i...
by Doc
Thu Apr 30, 2020 8:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best way to transfer money between Vanguard, Fidelity, and Schwab
Replies: 5
Views: 609

Re: Best way to transfer money between Vanguard, Fidelity, and Schwab

Is there an easy way to to set up transfers between Vanguard, Fidelity and/or Schwab? It seems like larger than necessary hassle to move money from the settlement account at one firm, through my checking account, and then to the settlement account at the other firm. Between my partner and I we have...
by Doc
Thu Apr 30, 2020 8:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time to rebalance by selling stocks?
Replies: 24
Views: 1998

Re: Time to rebalance by selling stocks?

My fixed income portfolio became discombobulated from a combination of rebalancing and tax loss harvesting. As a result I am changing my rebalancing bands to +10%, -5%. Target AA remains 50/50.

So haven't yet hit the new upper limit.
by Doc
Wed Apr 29, 2020 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which Bonds when the S&P 500 Tanks
Replies: 82
Views: 6182

Re: Which Bonds when the S&P 500 Tanks

So I’ll ask this question again to Kevin, Willthrill et al; Are you saying that in a 75/25 asset allocation the 25% bond allocation be all in VLGSX to benefit from the better LTT performance? I think what you and many of the "Portfolio Visualiser" folks are missing is that my question is not about ...
by Doc
Wed Apr 29, 2020 4:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which Bonds when the S&P 500 Tanks
Replies: 82
Views: 6182

Re: Which Bonds when the S&P 500 Tanks

Due to bond convexity, long-term bonds have a lot more upside potential when starting yields are low . If you haven't read it yet, Tyler9000's fantastic post on Portfolio Charts about bond convexity is absolutely worth the read. From the link you provided (which I now can't find), When market rates...
by Doc
Wed Apr 29, 2020 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which Bonds when the S&P 500 Tanks
Replies: 82
Views: 6182

Re: Which Bonds when the S&P 500 Tanks

Due to bond convexity, long-term bonds have a lot more upside potential when starting yields are low. If you haven't read it yet, Tyler9000's fantastic post on Portfolio Charts about bond convexity is absolutely worth the read. I'm missing something here. From your link: "The thing that drives the ...
by Doc
Wed Apr 29, 2020 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bond funds in taxable?
Replies: 13
Views: 679

Re: bond funds in taxable?

Doc, may I ask you (or anyone reading) do you agree that TBM may not be a poor choice to put in a taxable account? btw, I smiled upon reading your "location". not sure I understand it as you meant it, but I get it enough to appreciate it! It depends on your tax situation but it contains intermediat...
by Doc
Wed Apr 29, 2020 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bond funds in taxable?
Replies: 13
Views: 679

Re: bond funds in taxable?

Other than muni's, are there bond mutual funds that could reasonably go in a taxable account? if you are asking why the change in AA now, it is due to retirement. I no longer have a paycheck and from what I have learned here, muni's make sense for high income tax brackets. my tax sheltered side hol...
by Doc
Wed Apr 29, 2020 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which Bonds when the S&P 500 Tanks
Replies: 82
Views: 6182

Re: Which Bonds when the S&P 500 Tanks

Came across some recent articles by John Rekenthaler (Vice President of Research for Morningstar). I haven't gone through them all but last from last Thursday " Long Bonds Are for Fools " https://www.morningstar.com/articles/979956/long-bonds-are-for-fools and from Monday " Long Bonds and Gold as Po...
by Doc
Wed Apr 29, 2020 9:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which Bonds when the S&P 500 Tanks
Replies: 82
Views: 6182

Re: Which Bonds when the S&P 500 Tanks

abuss368 wrote:
Wed Apr 29, 2020 9:03 am
Do you know how international bonds have held up? Should it be concerning since Vanguard recommends 30% of bonds to international?
I don't even do Mortgage Backed Securities let alone international debt.

(I don't even due emerging market equities either. :shock: )
by Doc
Wed Apr 29, 2020 7:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which Bonds when the S&P 500 Tanks
Replies: 82
Views: 6182

Re: Which Bonds when the S&P 500 Tanks

abuss368 wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 11:00 pm
Can you please provide additional information or expand?
The TBM declined in Feb this year. That why I updated my chart to jog your memory.
Doc wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 8:54 am
I added Total Bond to the chart. BND.
by Doc
Tue Apr 28, 2020 7:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which Bonds when the S&P 500 Tanks
Replies: 82
Views: 6182

Re: Which Bonds when the S&P 500 Tanks

I think one might say that the short period when both stocks and Treasuries tanked was a bit of a minor black swan. It certainly doesn't fit the "flight to safety" Treasury story that we commonly see discussed--I don't recall seeing anything like it in late 2008, when as I recall nominal Treasuries...
by Doc
Tue Apr 28, 2020 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which Bonds when the S&P 500 Tanks
Replies: 82
Views: 6182

Re: Which Bonds when the S&P 500 Tanks

So for the entire stock-crash period, LTT did indeed perform the best, and did indeed have negative correlation with US stocks. Corporate bonds had very high positive correlation with US stocks, and total bond had moderate positive correlation. Using statistical analysis for things that are probabl...
by Doc
Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which Bonds when the S&P 500 Tanks
Replies: 82
Views: 6182

Re: Which Bonds when the S&P 500 Tanks

A 60/40 portfolio of S&P500/LTT has had virtually identical volatility as a 60/40 portfolio of S&P500/TBM going back to 1987. Its max drawdown and worst year were also both better than the TBM portfolio. It's portfolio volatility that matters IMO, not the volatility of an individual asset class wit...
by Doc
Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which Bonds when the S&P 500 Tanks
Replies: 82
Views: 6182

Re: Which Bonds when the S&P 500 Tanks

Call_Me_Op wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 8:47 am
Why not? This is exactly what I expected.
I didn't expect Long Term Treasuries to dip along with the stock market on March 20th.

Probably liquidity issue as Grabiner described. viewtopic.php?f=10&t=313314&p=5218100#p5217253
by Doc
Tue Apr 28, 2020 8:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which Bonds when the S&P 500 Tanks
Replies: 82
Views: 6182

Re: Which Bonds when the S&P 500 Tanks

I added Total Bond to the chart. BND.

Image
by Doc
Mon Apr 27, 2020 6:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which Bonds when the S&P 500 Tanks
Replies: 82
Views: 6182

Re: Which Bonds when the S&P 500 Tanks

Curious, how did total bond do in there? +1 also curious about Total Bond. Especially because of the long thread a few links down about how LTT should be the first bonds you own I don't do TBM because of the negative convexity of the MBS component so I didn't plot it. If that is not a concern of yo...
by Doc
Mon Apr 27, 2020 6:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which Bonds when the S&P 500 Tanks
Replies: 82
Views: 6182

Re: Which Bonds when the S&P 500 Tanks

Munir wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 6:20 pm
Two green lines. I assume the flat one is short term treasuries.

Doc: can you elaborate on what was unexpected for you?
Yes the flat line is short T's as expected.

The unexpected is the drop in long T's.
by Doc
Mon Apr 27, 2020 6:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which Bonds when the S&P 500 Tanks
Replies: 82
Views: 6182

Re: Which Bonds when the S&P 500 Tanks

likashing wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 6:17 pm
Doc wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 4:37 pm
Not what I would have expected.
Which part did you not expect? Intermediate corporate correlating to S&P 500?
Long T's going down on the 20th of March.

What Kevin addressed.

I haven't looked through all this but liquidity might be a factor. I'm asking.
by Doc
Mon Apr 27, 2020 4:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which Bonds when the S&P 500 Tanks
Replies: 82
Views: 6182

Which Bonds when the S&P 500 Tanks

There's a lot of discussion about which bond types to have when the stock market tanks. I looked at the last 3 month price chart "just to see". SCHJ - Intermediate Corporate SPY - S&P 500 SCHO - Short Treasury VLGSX - Long Treasury FUMAX - Intermediate Treasury https://i.postimg.cc/9fMcHmwH/Which-bo...
by Doc
Mon Apr 27, 2020 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How is it possible that VUBFX is down? [Vanguard Ultra-Short-Term Bond]
Replies: 15
Views: 1101

Re: How is it possible that VUBFX is down? [Vanguard Ultra-Short-Term Bond]

Thank you all for these answers. Very enlightening (and also the responses are very fast!). What ultra-short (Treasury) bond fund would all of you recommend? Ideally, Vanguard (although I can't find one). VFISX is far too volatile for me. There's an ETF "BIL" that holds 1-3 month T-bills. Link to a...
by Doc
Sun Apr 26, 2020 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Capital gains efficiency SPY vs Fund
Replies: 26
Views: 1039

Re: Capital gains efficiency SPY vs Fund

Doc wrote: ↑Sat Apr 25, 2020 4:52 pm jhfenton wrote: ↑Sat Apr 25, 2020 3:49 pm The issue with SPY is its outdated structure. Are you referring to the "no mutual fund share class" or something else specific to SPY? SPY is a unit investment trust, and it must hold dividends in cash until they are pai...
by Doc
Sat Apr 25, 2020 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Capital gains efficiency SPY vs Fund
Replies: 26
Views: 1039

Re: Capital gains efficiency SPY vs Fund

Of course SPY has no capital gains distributions, it's an ETF. It's mutual funds without an ETF share class that have a harder time avoiding capital gains distributions, not the other way around. No well-established equity ETF should ever have a capital gains distributions . The OP asked: So are SP...
by Doc
Sat Apr 25, 2020 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 807
Views: 51577

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

Yes, one week of positive correlation. You got us, I suppose. But how many weeks of negative correlation during stock crashes over how many years are you ignoring? I'm not ignoring anything. I just said that LLT didn't respond as what I expected last month. But it's apparently a two way street. Chr...
by Doc
Sat Apr 25, 2020 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 807
Views: 51577

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

LTTs were up in March. The LTT rally started on Feb 21 just as stocks began to crater. There were a few days in March where both stocks and LTTs fell, but this was the exception. On the whole, LTTs did exactly what they were supposed to do. https://i.postimg.cc/prLmTnWz/VGLT2.jpg I don't see it the...
by Doc
Sat Apr 25, 2020 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 807
Views: 51577

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

fredflinstone wrote:
Sat Apr 25, 2020 7:37 am
How did LTTs do in March? Wouldn't you prefer bonds that rally when stocks go down, as opposed to bonds that go down when stocks go down?
It didn't perform as what I would have expected.

Image
by Doc
Sat Apr 25, 2020 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Capital gains efficiency SPY vs Fund
Replies: 26
Views: 1039

Re: Capital gains efficiency SPY vs Fund

SPY Cap gains distributions: https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/spy/performance Latest Distribution History Distribution Date Distrib NAV Income S/Tap Gain L/TCap Gain Return of Cap Total Mar 20, 2020 228.80 1.4056 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 1.4056 Dec 20, 2019 320.73 1.5700 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 1.5700...
by Doc
Fri Apr 24, 2020 8:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar praises new Fidelity Core Bond fund- opinions?
Replies: 18
Views: 1468

Re: Morningstar praises new Fidelity Core Bond fund- opinions?

Morningstar calculates average credit quality by converting each bond's letter rating to the average default rate for bonds of that rating, calculating a weighted average of the default rates, and then converting that back to the corresponding letter rating. I don't know that that translates to in ...
by Doc
Fri Apr 24, 2020 3:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar praises new Fidelity Core Bond fund- opinions?
Replies: 18
Views: 1468

Re: Morningstar praises new Fidelity Core Bond fund- opinions?

What % of its holding of BBB bonds is allowed in a fund so it can still be called a "quality investment" fund? Investment grade refers to the quality of a company's credit. To be considered an investment grade issue, the company must be rated at 'BBB' or higher by Standard and Poor's or Moody's. An...
by Doc
Thu Apr 23, 2020 3:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 807
Views: 51577

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

Would it be smart to put LTT in a Roth if you are young and don’t have the option in your 401k? I’m guessing putting it in a taxable account is not recommended. In my situation Tax Efficiency: Short Treasuries > short Corporates ~ Intermediate Treasuries > Intermediate Corportates I don't invest in...
by Doc
Thu Apr 23, 2020 11:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 807
Views: 51577

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

The expansion would be 60% in stocks, 20% in long-term Treasuries, and 20% in "something else". That's what I intended in the post title. That is not the answer I would have expected. I agree that long term nominal Treasuries are probably the best if one is going to rebalnce in a stock market crash...
by Doc
Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 807
Views: 51577

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

Of all the traditional portfolio assets, long-term Treasuries are regarded as the best diversifier of stocks for a reason. Regardless of the "feels", an 80/20 investor using long-term Treasuries can expect to have less overall portfolio volatility and lower drawdowns than an 80/20 investor using to...
by Doc
Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:28 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Schwab does not allow specific tax lots to be selected online when selling mutual funds
Replies: 84
Views: 5566

Re: Schwab does not allow specific tax lots to be selected online when selling mutual funds

Schwab wrote:You can choose an alternative cost basis method for this order. This method will be changed for this order only, and will update any unsettled parts of the order. This method will be used to calculate the gain or loss for this order, and for any applicable reporting to the IRS.
by Doc
Tue Apr 21, 2020 9:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone use global cap weight plus a set domestic tilt for equities?
Replies: 64
Views: 2425

Re: Does anyone use global cap weight plus a set domestic tilt for equities?

I target domestic/foreign as 75/25. The foreign is all developed market and IS NOT a broad index fund. The foreign avoids large cap blend as I considered many of those companies to be international firms which compete in the same markets as their US counterparts so you gain no diversification benefi...
by Doc
Tue Apr 21, 2020 7:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VMMXX Vanguard Prime MM Fund
Replies: 15
Views: 3217

Re: VMMXX Vanguard Prime MM Fund

It is not “cheating” to run a money market fund this way. It is the way money market funds are run under SEC regulations, which have the force of law. They just aren’t run the same way as other mutual funds. The maturities of their instruments are highly limited so amortized cost is permitted (by r...
by Doc
Mon Apr 20, 2020 4:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VMMXX Vanguard Prime MM Fund
Replies: 15
Views: 3217

Re: VMMXX Vanguard Prime MM Fund

I had the idea that a MM fund of this type maintained it's constant $1.00 per share price by accruing "dividends" daily and paying them out monthly. (This is in additional to the accrual cost basis Geologist previous mentioned.) This is why you do not see price "spikes" when the fund goes ex-divide...