Bogleheads.org

LittleD

We all should know the Social Security is essentially a Tips bond portfolio and for most folks a
pretty substantial pot of future money. With that in mind, you should be able to allocate a bit more money
to equities, commodities & gold to round out an entire portfolio for the coming lean years.

LittleD

If you were to take the data series of UER and calculate a bollinger band around the data, the upper band would be at just about 4.16 percent. If I was using UER as my trigger, I would wait to make a move until UER hit that upper band. Bollinger bands use standard deviation and his work has been use...

LittleD

So, do you recommend it? He does not recommend it to anyone. I have no problem recommending my investment approach. I recommended it to my MIL and put her in it. I recommended it to my daughter and her husband's business manager also recommended it. How many investors would use an approach that no ...

LittleD

In the OP, you said that trend following "works". Unless I am mistaken, that seems to imply more than a mere subjective fondness for it on your part. So, what did you claim in the OP? I will let him address what he meant to say in the OP but, what I can say is that TF has worked in the past by look...

LittleD

I own both USMV and SPLV as two of my choices for investments right now. I still use the SPX for buy/sell signals in TR along with the LEI. I bought back into the Markets in 2009 and have not had to sell yet. If you use the economic and stock market for a trigger, you will really minimize whipsaws f...

LittleD

But for those interested, my favorite market timing article is here: http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2016/01/gtt/ Fair warning--that article will take several hours (or weeks) to read and digest. Perhaps its a qualifier. Also, it should be mentioned, that even if market timing is possible and...

LittleD

You can go to the Fed's official site which gives the dates of recessions. I don't have the link handy but, it's there. Some have been a few months while others have extended out to up to 2 years. Actually, it's better if the SPX takes a while to go down and bottom as it allows the 200 dma time to f...

LittleD

It has been late a couple of times. At times the SPX will head lower and cross the 200dma and no recession indicator has materialized. The strategy would stay in the market until both signals trigger. Usually, the LEI leads a marked recession by economists by several months. Nothing in this world is...

LittleD

Just one more tidbit I use on the buy side: I have been using the rule of thumb that when the LEI turns up from a low in a recession (not necessarily above zero) and at the point the SPX moves above the 200dma, I go all in. Most investors are too scared to enter the market in the dark days of a rece...

LittleD

Yes, just be patient and let the strategy work. I did not get a sell signal in Nov-Dec 20% correction and good thing I just bought some more around the lows and rode up the strategy into January. We can have a 20% correction anytime and that is just to be accepted in the investment game. 50% decline...

LittleD

Good, if this is working for you! And...it's not already priced in when you make a trade? Awesome. Keep it up. :moneybag It worked for me in the last two "mother of all recessions". It has also worked for every major recession in backtest since the 1950's. It did not work in 1987 because it wasn't ...

LittleD

:arrow: But for those interested, my favorite market timingejs article is here: http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2016/01/gtt/ Fair warning--that article will take several hours (or weeks) to read and digest. Perhaps its a qualifier. Also, it should be mentioned, that even if market timing is p...

LittleD

Funny that there's absolutely no information about HOW to time the market. How to know WHEN to get out. WHEN to get in. Instead, it's just a bunch of nattering, argumentative back and forth. Here's what I observe: Gamblers are terrible at basic arithmetic. Nuff said. Okay...I'll let you in on my st...

LittleD

:arrow: But for those interested, my favorite market timingejs article is here: http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2016/01/gtt/ Fair warning--that article will take several hours (or weeks) to read and digest. Perhaps its a qualifier. Also, it should be mentioned, that even if market timing is p...

LittleD

Paul Merriman was an advocate of 100% TF investing decades ago and he has abandoned it. Retirement investing typically needs to be sustained for five or more decades. Is there any evidence that a large percentage of 100% TF investors stick with it? You don't have Mr. Merriman's investment portfolio...

LittleD

Like I said, best strategy. Best does not mean highest return to everyone. If you can tell us the specific strategy that is better, and why, and accept critical conversation about that strategy, I'm all ears. No one... and I mean no one can tell anyone what or which strategy will be best in the fut...

LittleD

We agree that 1. Some analysis of risks should happen The question is if there is enough interest in talking to other people and listening to other people to have an actionable conversation about risks. Please let me know if you have such an interest - your comments so far indicate that you seem to...

LittleD

I look forward to updates. The biggest hurdle for me would be being completely out of the market as it climbs, like the past couple days. Much easier for me to be in with at least part of my portfolio. Good luck. This is where knowledge of the market's history can help. Historically, the biggest 'u...

LittleD

I will kindly say yet again that comparing the performance of any TF strategy to that of BAH over a short-term period, even a decade, is simply erroneous. It would be like a gold bug in 2009 declaring that gold, with annualized returns over the prior decade of 11.10%, was far superior to stocks or ...

LittleD

Yes, we haven't had a full recession since 2008-2009 so I have that going for me. Will we have one in the next 18 months??? I'm prepared to act should one appear on the horizon. The Economy (LEI) and the SPX (stock market) will let me know if I need to run for the hills and hide. What % of your mon...

LittleD

So, what is Vanguard and several other long term forecasters predicting: I take these 4-5% long term projections for returns only one way...That is we are going to have another substantial recession and major correction in the equity markets. If we get a 30-60% decline in the SPX, the forward foreca...

LittleD

My portfolio is 17% ahead of the OP due to buy and hold in the last 1.5 years. That crystal ball is going to have to be very clear indeed to ever catch up, and as I continue to move into safe assets, there is little risk that recessions in general are something to fear. I would encourage others to ...

LittleD

Okay, let me address your questions. The LEI formula I use has a long history of identifying the start of a recession by 2-7 months early. Clearly that is enough time to wait for the SPX to trade below the 43wk EMA. I do not sell until both signals tell me to. Could I be late in the future...sure. T...

LittleD

Yes, will I underperform the SPX in the long run...absolutely I will. Will buy & hold underperform the SPX...absolutely they will if they also hold international, small-cap and bonds for diversification. Here's hoping that both of us sleep well at night when the next big one hits us in the face some...

LittleD

Looks like I probably read part of your strategy wrong. Using UER against a 12mo SMA makes perfect sense. I use the LEI for my trading strategy and it also works. I see that you are using a 7mo Dual Momentum strategy for being in Stocks or Bonds based upon the highest relative momentum. I'm not sure...

LittleD

OMG...Some of you need to just think before you ask questions. His plan is based on two vectors. The economy UER has to be in his favor and the stock market (SPX) has to be in a fairly long trend using a 7mo SMA for him to be invested. He checks his two vectors at the beginning of every month to det...

LittleD

I'm not sure why you think this thread is representative of the average investor, who is constantly trying to predict what direction the market is going next. Contrary to what many believe, rules-based trend following strategies are based on a historical expectancy, not a vain attempt at prediction...

LittleD

There will always be whipsaws when using trend following and moving average crossovers to signal buys and sells in the market. I am including what I think is a very good analysis of how you can trade indexes just using one index, the SPX and apply those signals to other indexes to improve your overa...

LittleD

Part of my retirement portfolio works similar to that. Again these are tax deferred accounts. I use 40% trend with the caveat that I pick one or two top relative momentum funds (etf's) then 40% market (diversified etf's) and 20% taxable bonds ( SPLB or SPTL). I use a 4 bar EMA/13 bar EMA moving aver...

LittleD

You have to look at the investing environment of new millennial investors to answer your question. They seem to want to own technology and information which includes the FAANG universe. They are all about the New World Order and the future of "green" climate change investment positioning. Just look ...

LittleD

In most historical studies, Lump Sum investing beats DCA in comparisons. The stock market is not cheap today by most measures so if you are mostly Buy & Hold, I would DCA until we get that manic selloff that is bound to come someday in the future. At that point, at the stroke of maximum pessimism, I...

LittleD

Large and Mid-cap Growth have been in favor since the great recession in 2008. Value has clearly underperformed the S&P in those years. Over the last 50-75 years, Value (small cap value in particular) has usually outperformed the Growth and S&P indexes by about 2% but, Technology stocks have been th...

LittleD

This is from a writeup on the two indexes SPX and NDX: SPX and NDX never have dividends because they are indexes simply calculated mathematically and displayed - they are not equity products. SPY and QQQ are the related ETF products that track those indexes, owning the underlying shares in the same ...

LittleD

Yes, the SPY includes dividends... The SPX does not.

LittleD

The difference he is probably referring to is between SPX and SPY. SPX is the S&P 500 without dividends included. The SPY is the same fund as the S&P 500 TR index. They have dividends included in the price graphs and interval calculations. I use SPY for most of my decision analysis but, many traders...

LittleD

For the many who love the mixed portfolio (60/40) and are game to do that with just two ETF, I offer the 12% solution which offers the chance/potential to beat a benchmark of buy and hold. It does some timing and switching of the two funds at times. The volatility of the portfolio is reduced and see...

LittleD

I don't want to hijack the thread but, Schwab probably has something to do with Vanguard lowering their fees. Now if you want cheap Schwab Index Funds with very low expenses take a look at these: If you still like Mutual Funds that is. SWLGX Large Cap Growth Index .02 expense ratio SWPPX S&P500 Inde...

LittleD

I had the FRED link and have looked at their index in the past but, in many ways I found it a bit limiting when compared to the Conference Board work. They both work because they look at prime derivatives of the US economy. For me, I really just need to know a binary aspect of whether it is safe to ...

LittleD

[/quote] Hi LittleD, I was aware of this source but have not seen the link to data going back to 1959. One can follow this as it comes out monthly but I'd like to see the data in a spreadsheet format back to 1959. Is it freely available? Do you have a link? I have seen charts of it but not the actua...

LittleD

The Conference board sells the data if you want a full history. I use a graph produced by dshort - Advisor Perspectives that has a .png of the history and current level. It's not perfect but, dshort does update the current month Conference Board number each month and Jill Millinski does a great job ...

LittleD

Thanks for the kind response. Just one more caveat...the CB LEI usually comes out between the 21st to 25th of the month so I know half my vector before the last trading day of the month. That really helps prepare for a decision.

Still, I wish you good luck and fortune with your strategy.

LittleD

I have read the thread and find your strategy very similar to mine with very similar rules for portfolio defense and portfolio offense. My main difference is, even though I track UER monthly, I'm not using that statistic for trading. I have been using the Conference Boards LEI statistics which inclu...

LittleD

You should be able to index this portfolio pretty easily. Most fund families have a healthcare mutual fund or etf available at reasonable expenses. The international EFA indexes have lagged the U.S. for year's now and I don't know if their economies can produce growth higher than the U.S. going forw...

LittleD

European Reits would be my choice because there are better financial reporting requirements and controls in those countries. I have never trusted controls or financial accuracy in Asian countries, especially China or India. If you can find a good, low cost, Reit domiciled in Europe, that would be m...

LittleD

European Reits would be my choice because there are better financial reporting requirements and controls in those countries. I have never trusted controls or financial accuracy in Asian countries, especially China or India. If you can find a good, low cost, Reit domiciled in Europe, that would be my...

LittleD

It is well known and suggested in portfolio construction that Reits should be only held in tax deferred accounts in whatever country you live in. That way, all of the dividends and capital gains are excluded from taxes until retirement. Reits should usually not be held in taxable accounts. Reits, by...

LittleD

If you would like to investigate an ETF international reit, you could look at RWO which
is cheap enough and has a diversified portfolio. Please remember that if interest rates
are falling or stable, reits will do fine. In a rising rate environment, reits do poorly like
Utilities.

LittleD

This has been hashed over many times and you are right that DCA is not a strategy that on average will turn out better than a lump sum move it all in the middle investing. The reason some will say to use it is that many investors are very risk averse and can't stomach the idea of pushing all their m...

LittleD

There are very few sectors that would pass the 12-month momentum or 10-month trend momentum right now. Probably TLT or TLO is the only sector (long term bonds) that would still pass the tests. I would sit in cash if so positioned until a new buy signal occurs or just maintain stance and wait out the...

LittleD

Three weeks ago was the time to do it if you were inclined to do it. Might be too late now. Stay the course and rebalance if you need to maintain
your desired allocations.

Search found 220 matches