Search found 2968 matches

by MathWizard
Sat Oct 20, 2018 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The End of Indexing?
Replies: 30
Views: 2996

Re: The End of Indexing?

None of the "six structural mega-trends" mentioned will kill indexing. The two things that I worry about for my retirement are: 1) Concentration of wealth to the point where private equity dwarfs the public market The growth of GDP is correlated with the weighted average of the public and private e...
by MathWizard
Sat Oct 20, 2018 9:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Protecting large sums of cash.
Replies: 17
Views: 1256

Re: Protecting large sums of cash.

This topic keeps coming up here a lot. Just wondering when was the last time someone actually needed FDIC protection? Don’t flame me, I’m not saying you should not care about it, just trying to put a perspective in my head. WaMu (Washington Mutual) during the financial crisis. This was less than 10...
by MathWizard
Sat Oct 20, 2018 12:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The End of Indexing?
Replies: 30
Views: 2996

Re: The End of Indexing?

None of the "six structural mega-trends" mentioned will kill indexing. The two things that I worry about for my retirement are: 1) Concentration of wealth to the point where private equity dwarfs the public market The growth of GDP is correlated with the weighted average of the public and private eq...
by MathWizard
Wed Oct 17, 2018 8:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Retirement age uncertainty increases the savings needed for success"
Replies: 46
Views: 4111

Re: "Retirement age uncertainty increases the savings needed for success"

Now to some extent shortages of employees are a made up problem. Raise wages and those shortgages tend to disappear quickly. For the past 15 years or so I had a very difficult time filling advanced- and management-level statistician positions. We hired english-speaking immigrants and attracted peop...
by MathWizard
Wed Oct 17, 2018 5:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What do you consider 'enough'?
Replies: 90
Views: 9348

Re: What do you consider 'enough'?

When the after benefits/after tax amount from expected income stream from pensions/ SS and portfolio
is equal to my take home minus savings. This is after the kids are no longer dependent and debt is gone
which is where I am now.
by MathWizard
Wed Oct 17, 2018 4:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Where would you go for financial guidance if you win the Megamillions?
Replies: 115
Views: 8704

Re: Where would you go for financial guidance if you win the Megamillions?

I won't win. (You can't lose if you don't play.) However, with the hypothetical, I would not worry about the financial side, but I would probably ask who the lottery board would suggest to talk to about non-financial situations unique to the lottery that I have not thought about. For example, the lo...
by MathWizard
Mon Oct 15, 2018 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Time to reach 1M and 2M milestones
Replies: 171
Views: 55031

Re: Time to reach 1M and 2M milestones

About 27 years to $1Million in invested assets. NW is higher. In that time we paid off student loans, bought a house and paid it off, and put two kids through college. Now, with lowered expenses, we are plowing the freed up money from mortgage and college expenses into retirement funds, and would hi...
by MathWizard
Mon Oct 15, 2018 12:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: LTD Insurance via Employer: Even in Your 60's ?
Replies: 2
Views: 217

Re: LTD Insurance via Employer: Even in Your 60's ?

The plan you have does not seem like a good deal assuming premiums are high. I would probably keep it in my 60's until financially independent, but not longer SS does provide disability payments, so you would have some money coming in. I plan to keep mine to retirement, as it will pay to 70, it is n...
by MathWizard
Sun Oct 14, 2018 11:36 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How Much Is Your Sewer Bill?
Replies: 78
Views: 3907

Re: How Much Is Your Sewer Bill?

About $40/month up from 30, which is the same as water bill. Water into house = water down the drain. Recent upgrade needed for both water treatment and sewage treatment plants which was approved by city wide vote. Sewer bill can be reduced in summer if you buy a meter for your lawn watering. The co...
by MathWizard
Sun Oct 14, 2018 11:29 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Using credit card rental car insurance
Replies: 14
Views: 1193

Re: Using credit card rental car insurance

For two weeks in France, I did not use CC insurance, but paid for full coverage with the rental company. The small cost versus the risk of having to deal with a foreign legal system was worth it. I think that it cost me about $250 for 2 weeks, which was a small part of the total trip cost, and gave ...
by MathWizard
Sun Oct 14, 2018 11:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: “$1000/month job is worth $300k in retirement funds” // What are some retirement jobs you would actually enjoy doing?
Replies: 103
Views: 9590

Re: “$1000/month job is worth $300k in retirement funds” // What are some retirement jobs you would actually enjoy doing

Part time or full time, whichever tickles your fancy. Also it doesn’t necessarily have to earn $1000/month. It could be more or less, as long as it’s not zero. Personally, I think I would enjoy being a teacher, but haven’t really thought about this in depth, so I figured I’d ask all of you :) Teach...
by MathWizard
Sun Oct 14, 2018 11:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What events hurt US equity returns in the past 100 years?
Replies: 12
Views: 1075

Re: What events hurt US equity returns in the past 100 years?

The big events are in bold

1929 Great Depression

1973 Energy Crisis

1980 Farm Crisis maybe?

2001 Sept 11 attacks + Dot Com Bubble Burst

2008 Housing Crisis
by MathWizard
Sun Oct 14, 2018 8:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: tablet or small laptop for general and travel computer?
Replies: 41
Views: 2191

Re: tablet or small laptop for general and travel computer?

I've been looking for the same thing.

So far, the top candidate at Best Buy is:

HP - Pavilion x360 with touchscreen.

with Microsoft Ink for about $500.

It folds into a tablet.

It only has about a 500GB hard drive, not a SSD.
by MathWizard
Sun Oct 14, 2018 4:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When to stop putting money into an older vehicle
Replies: 88
Views: 5813

Re: When to stop putting money into an older vehicle

My strategy has evolved over time. From college thru grad school, anything that would get me from point A to B, all repairs myself, even in a parking lot or in the driveway in the snow. Just out of grad school married and infant son along, 13 yes old car gave troubles after dark along a lonely stret...
by MathWizard
Sat Oct 13, 2018 4:13 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Suit for Teenager
Replies: 18
Views: 1183

Re: Suit for Teenager

J C Penny's
by MathWizard
Sat Oct 13, 2018 4:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is your annual cost for health insurance?
Replies: 137
Views: 9582

Re: What is your annual cost for health insurance?

Total cost counting glasses but not dental, family coverage 1900/ month. I have estimated that my wife and I will be spending about 10.2K/ yr once we turn 65 using Medicare and retiree plan from work. Again, glasses but not dental. We are already wearing progressive lenses so I don't expect glasses ...
by MathWizard
Sat Oct 13, 2018 4:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Warning: avoid Windows 10 update 1803
Replies: 117
Views: 13587

Re: Warning: avoid Windows 10 update 1803

When people talk about black swans one of the things I have thought of was a bad Windows update that bricks a couple of hundred million computers. I wouldn't worry about major institutions. They perform regular backups. My staff manages about 1000 computers, and we have configuration and install fi...
by MathWizard
Fri Oct 12, 2018 5:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: To Roth IRA or Not
Replies: 13
Views: 984

Re: To Roth IRA or Not

Open a Roth now. If you ever have the option for a Roth 401k you can use that regardless of income level AFAIK, but Roth 401k's have RMDs. The way to avoid this is to roll it over into an existing Roth. You won't be able to withdraw penalty free until 5 years after Jan1 of the year the Roth IRA was ...
by MathWizard
Wed Oct 10, 2018 3:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 RBD?
Replies: 28
Views: 2061

Re: S&P 500 RBD?

When do the circuit breakers kick in?
by MathWizard
Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1/CAPE10 at the extremes
Replies: 28
Views: 2681

Re: 1/CAPE10 at the extremes

I would like to hear from those who use 1/CAPE10 to predict earnings (or anything else). Since that formula is not linear, how do you handle the extremes in values? For example, if CAPE10 is 10, 1/CAPE10 yields a 10% real expected return. In 1921, CAPE10 got down to 5.3, predicting 19% real returns...
by MathWizard
Tue Oct 09, 2018 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Child is HS senior: Should college fund have any equities?
Replies: 28
Views: 2273

Re: Child is HS senior: Should college fund have any equities?

In my college fund, I've got enough in Vanguard Total Bond and Prime MM to send my child to a state university for 4 years. Fortunately (or unfortunately?), she may gain entry into a top private college at 2.5 times the cost. With college only a year away, should I be selling equities in the colleg...
by MathWizard
Mon Oct 08, 2018 5:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is an emergency fund just about market timing?
Replies: 103
Views: 5548

Re: Is an emergency fund just about market timing?

No. An EF is about staying out of a liquidity crunch.

It's also about being able to sleep at night.
by MathWizard
Mon Oct 08, 2018 5:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: roof leak thread
Replies: 7
Views: 856

Re: roof leak thread

With a relatively new roof, the first thoughts would be: 1) Flashing around vents is not fastened down correctly 2) Step flashing not installed around chimney or other vertical surface on which shingles abut 3) Exposed nail heads not caulked (ideally there on two exposed nail head on one end of the ...
by MathWizard
Mon Oct 08, 2018 2:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What purchase saved you the most money?
Replies: 136
Views: 12657

Re: What purchase saved you the most money?

All my purchases cost me money.
I guess that I could say that I bought used cars instead of Ferraris, so I "saved" lots of money.
by MathWizard
Mon Oct 08, 2018 11:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: FAFSA questions
Replies: 29
Views: 2149

Re: FAFSA questions

That's a good point. So, if we have outstanding property taxes coming due later this month, I can subtract that amount. No you cannot, unless you wait to submit until AFTER you pay the taxes. The FAFSA is a point in time. If you submit today, the numbers should match what is in your (online) bank &...
by MathWizard
Sat Oct 06, 2018 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stress testing for those contemplating retirement in the next couple years
Replies: 28
Views: 2778

Re: Stress testing for those contemplating retirement in the next couple years

Since I plan never to go back to work, my planning includes assuming only 75% of estimated SS benefits , and I deflate the balance of my equity portfolio by the Schiller PE divided by 20. You could use PE1 as well. Currently this means a bit over a drop of 1/3 in stock prices. I'm comfortable that 2...
by MathWizard
Wed Oct 03, 2018 12:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds... Why do people bother with them. ?
Replies: 71
Views: 7340

Re: Bonds... Why do people bother with them. ?

How many people on here were 100% stocks in 2008? Except for a small amount in TIAA which takes 20 years to get out, both my wife and I were 100% invested in stocks in 2008/9. I was down about $120K, and still went all in from a 90/10 AA when stocks were on sale. My wife dialed it back this last ye...
by MathWizard
Wed Oct 03, 2018 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Key differences between investing philosophies: Swedroe vs. Bogle
Replies: 144
Views: 7643

Re: Key differences between investing philosophies: Swedroe vs. Bogle

What are the key differences between them and who is right, in your opinion? Right about what? I'm going with Rick's analysis of the two philosophies above, here are my thoughts on the implications: 1. Larry may well be able to provide slightly better growth over time. 2. The average investor is li...
by MathWizard
Tue Oct 02, 2018 8:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why won't the US markets average 0-2% (or 10-20%) real returns for a few decades?
Replies: 20
Views: 2782

Re: Why won't the US markets average 0-2% (or 10-20%) real returns for a few decades?

Returns ultimately come from earnings. Some businesses survive IPO without positive earnings, but not very many. Who in their right mind starts a business aims for 2% returns? They are aiming for 10 to 20% . Some will make miss this badly, and there will be lots of displacement of existing businesse...
by MathWizard
Sat Sep 29, 2018 11:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: College Student Performance Issues
Replies: 83
Views: 4505

Re: College Student Performance Issues

This can be difficult, and there is no easy solution. One son needed to drop out for a year and just work at a low wage job for a while, then he switched majors. We were worried about this future, but he is thriving now. I think that he just needed to take ownership of his life. In HS and college, y...
by MathWizard
Sat Sep 29, 2018 11:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Salary negotiation: saying a number first on purpose?
Replies: 43
Views: 3946

Re: Salary negotiation: saying a number first on purpose?

As someone hiring right now, I would first get them excited about you before mentioning money.

They may need to fight for a higher salary, so you want them to think that it will be worth the effort.
by MathWizard
Fri Sep 28, 2018 11:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Testing validity of Monte Carlo Simulators
Replies: 34
Views: 2125

Re: Testing validity of Monte Carlo Simulators

I am doubtful of the extremes, but if you are looking at a 90% confidence window, that may not matter. The problem with using random numbers is that there should be no "memory" in the numbers. For example, people often assume that if a fair die has rolled a 6 nine times in a row that the probability...
by MathWizard
Thu Sep 27, 2018 5:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: cell phone plans--google fi?
Replies: 22
Views: 1932

Re: cell phone plans--google fi?

I love Google Fi. If you travel internationally, it is great. It also has an international carrier good in over 150 countries. Worked seamlessly in the UK, except some places in the subway system. Talk/text works on wifi as well as on cell, and seamlessly switched over. Data costs the same in Europe...
by MathWizard
Wed Sep 26, 2018 12:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is high inflation a good thing while working?
Replies: 40
Views: 2699

Re: Is high inflation a good thing while working?

Inflation is a symptom, so you should ask why is the inflation high? That would tell you whether it is good/bad or irrelevant to you. It used to be taught that wage inflation was inversely proportional to the unemployment rate. This made some sense since: if there are not enough qualified workers, t...
by MathWizard
Tue Sep 25, 2018 2:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do I really need a CPA to do taxes for LLC?
Replies: 13
Views: 1321

Re: Do I really need a CPA to do taxes for LLC?

My wife and I have always done our own taxes, even when she had businesses. However, she is now part of an LLC with siblings and they hire a CPA. She prepares all the information, but the CPA does the taxes. Partly this is because she is the youngest (at almost 60), but also because some in-laws mak...
by MathWizard
Mon Sep 24, 2018 10:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: FIL bought land with 6 other people, and one passed away
Replies: 8
Views: 1649

Re: FIL bought land with 6 other people, and one passed away

It comes down to what the loan agreement says, and whether it is legally enforceable.

If you have read the loan agreement, and disagree with the bank's interpretation of it, it sounds like a lawyer would be needed.
by MathWizard
Mon Sep 24, 2018 10:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Losing Passion for Hobbies. Cheap or normal aging?
Replies: 71
Views: 8987

Re: Losing Passion for Hobbies. Cheap or normal aging?

Things change, and you change with the circumstances. I used to run, play basketball, read and go dancing with my wife. Then came kids. Kids , church, and working on the house and car chewed up all free time outside work. The kids are out of college, the house is almost complete, and I'm paying peop...
by MathWizard
Mon Sep 24, 2018 9:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best way to get $100k cash
Replies: 86
Views: 7635

Re: Best way to get $100k cash

The other argument against this is that I have seen offers where you get 0% financing, but if you don't pay it off on time, you are charged (a hefty) interest from day one retro-actively. This may not apply in the case you are looking at though. If there is an example of a Visa/MC/AmEx/Discover car...
by MathWizard
Mon Sep 24, 2018 5:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best way to get $100k cash
Replies: 86
Views: 7635

Re: Best way to get $100k cash

I would read the fine print. The 0% cards that I got specifically said that a cash advance was not charged 0% interest and that there was no grace period for cash advances. CC companies get fees from the sellers when you use a CC. On a cash advance, there is no seller, so they need to get upfront mo...
by MathWizard
Mon Sep 24, 2018 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in the Rare Opportunity
Replies: 59
Views: 4542

Re: Investing in the Rare Opportunity

Not sure how this is actionable? This sounds like a trick question. I'm wondering if OP will say the company is: Haloid (later Xerox), Apple, Google, Amazon or Theranos / Enron / Long Term Capital Management This is probably a behavioral type question. An option that is not stated is that the OP cou...
by MathWizard
Mon Sep 24, 2018 12:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Where are the hybrid or fully electric two seater commuting vehicles?
Replies: 44
Views: 1926

Re: Where are the hybrid or fully electric two seater commuting vehicles?

I looked at a ZENN a few years ago, but it is limited to I think 25 MPH because that allows them to
avoid some of the US safety rules. It was still $12K then. I've seen similar models for which doors are optional :!:
by MathWizard
Mon Sep 24, 2018 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 401k: Why not only after-tax?
Replies: 37
Views: 4194

Re: 401k: Why not only after-tax?

If you were in the top bracket, and expect to be in the top bracket when you retire (huge taxable account),
then I guess it could make sense to have your entire 401k contribution be after-tax, but any company match will be
still be pretax.

I think that this would be a rare situation.
by MathWizard
Sun Sep 23, 2018 6:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Reverse Mortgages - Pros, Cons
Replies: 55
Views: 3955

Re: Reverse Mortgages - Pros, Cons

I plan to downsize either to a smaller ourselves or to an apartment designed with mobility problems in mind. The problem with a forever home is that at least with current housing, you end up a less than optimal solution when you are running and have little money and a need to be close to a good elem...
by MathWizard
Sun Sep 23, 2018 11:43 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I Care About My Credit Score if Debt Free?
Replies: 34
Views: 2581

Re: Should I Care About My Credit Score if Debt Free?

Don't know what my credit score is because I don't really need it. I think the interesting question would be if someone like me has no debt and pays off his credit cards every month, does that effect my score in a negative way? I think my credit score was checked when we rented a condo and I wonder...
by MathWizard
Thu Sep 20, 2018 10:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should we temporarily reduce our retirement contributions in order to pay off our $400k mortgage in 7 years?
Replies: 83
Views: 7465

Re: Should we temporarily reduce our retirement contributions in order to pay off our $400k mortgage in 7 years?

We did something similar (paid off a 30 year in 17 years), but this was when we were in the 15% tax bracket. So I would say yes if you are in the now 12% bracket. I don't think I would have done it had I been in the 25% tax bracket, so if you are in the 22% or higher bracket, then I would not. My wi...
by MathWizard
Wed Sep 19, 2018 5:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Did you really have something to retire to?
Replies: 133
Views: 11651

Re: Did you really have something to retire to?

I volunteered a lot up, and enjoyed it, up to a little over 5 years ago.

Then work started consuming so much of my time that I had to scale back
greatly on those activities.

I plan to get back to those volunteer activities in retirement.
by MathWizard
Sun Sep 16, 2018 8:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: (No Savings) *Everything* in S&P 500?
Replies: 33
Views: 3933

Re: (No Savings) *Everything* in S&P 500?

He is 100% equities in a fairly broad index, and no EF, but has a steady high income. If he won't sell in a huge downturn, and doesn't need a large% of the money for a long time the strategy is not crazy. I don't advocate not having at least a small EF, but all he is doing is betting that what he wo...
by MathWizard
Fri Sep 14, 2018 6:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Any issue with overpaying taxes?
Replies: 23
Views: 1679

Re: Any issue with overpaying taxes?

I'm assuming you are not in a bracket for which long term CG is taxed at 0%. If so, you wouldn't have to worry about it. An alternative: If you are in a higher bracket, and don;t need that money, you could just keep the stock and either gift it to charity, or let your heirs inherit it, and get a ste...
by MathWizard
Fri Sep 14, 2018 5:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Age in Bonds - Still Recommended?
Replies: 152
Views: 11732

Re: Age in Bonds - Still Recommended?

I am kind of stunned by the number of people here who are admitting to holding no bonds. I am one of them, but I never expected there to be so many of us. I had too talk my wife into investing in the stock market. (For her IRAs, she wanted to do CDs). After she saw my 100% stock gains, she went all...
by MathWizard
Fri Sep 14, 2018 5:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If you're FI, or close to FI, are still fighting to climb the Corp. Ladder?
Replies: 118
Views: 11453

Re: If you're FI, or close to FI, are still fighting to climb the Corp. Ladder?

My wife thinks we are FI, I think we are still 1-2 years away. My fighting to climb has slowed down. I last moved up 5 years ago, now reporting to a senior VP. That position has turned over twice since then. The president was replaced last year, who then replaced my boss, who expects to be replaced ...