Search found 83 matches

by bikenfool
Sat Jan 21, 2017 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fed Rate [may go] to 3% - [investing consequences?]
Replies: 85
Views: 10148

Re: Fed Rate [may go] to 3% - [investing consequences?]

http://myphotos.mypclinuxos.com/images/patrick013/screen11262016140241.png Well now that we're supposed to be starting a secular trend of rising rates (left side of graph) perhaps we'll never see TRSY's at less than 3% again. When predictions (forewarnings) become reality or "perfect informati...
by bikenfool
Tue Jan 17, 2017 12:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short Term TIPS in retirement portfolio
Replies: 23
Views: 2554

Re: Short Term TIPS in retirement portfolio

I don't hold short term TIPS (outside of what is in the index or VAIPX) because I think CD's at 2% are a better investment at that maturity. I keep enough in savings, CD's and short term corp bonds for the next 5 yrs.
by bikenfool
Mon Feb 29, 2016 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: ISTB credit quality
Replies: 0
Views: 227

ISTB credit quality

I'm looking at using ISTB in my fido account for some short term funds. Morningstar shows the avg credit quality as BBB. The portfolio quality table ( http://portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/summary?t=ISTB&region=usa&culture=en_US ) looks like this: Type % AAA 63.86 AA 4.82 A 12.32 BBB 11.45 ...
by bikenfool
Tue Feb 16, 2016 8:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When to expect 1099-DIV from Vanguard?
Replies: 17
Views: 1597

Re: When to expect 1099-DIV from Vanguard?

Hi all, However, after Jan 31 passed, I called Vanguard and was told I should expect my 1099-DIV/INT in "mid February". Does anyone know when that actually might be? I download my Vanguard 1099-DIV form on January 30. You better check & make sure that you don't have another one. I got...
by bikenfool
Tue Feb 16, 2016 8:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: multiple 1099 from vanguard
Replies: 14
Views: 1358

Re: multiple 1099 from vanguard

No I didn't notice. The holdings I had were listed in the 1st one, so I assumed that it was complete, but the last dividend was not included.
by bikenfool
Tue Feb 16, 2016 7:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: multiple 1099 from vanguard
Replies: 14
Views: 1358

multiple 1099 from vanguard

Heads up. It appears that due to the accounting change at vanguard they are putting out 2 1099's for the same account. PITA for me since I had the 1st one and filed my taxes, then I got the other one today.
by bikenfool
Tue Jul 21, 2015 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: limit order on bond
Replies: 3
Views: 304

Re: limit order on bond

Buy. About 5 or 10 min
by bikenfool
Tue Jul 21, 2015 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: limit order on bond
Replies: 3
Views: 304

limit order on bond

If I put a limit order on a TIPS, in between the bid and ask price, it gets cancelled pretty quickly. This is at fidelity. After it was cancelled it was still in between the bid and ask. It's a day order. Anybody know why it gets cancelled so quickly?
by bikenfool
Fri Jul 17, 2015 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: downloading bond prices from net
Replies: 0
Views: 234

downloading bond prices from net

There seem to be tools available to download stock prices from yahoo. How about bond prices? I use gnucash to keep track of my finances. Stocks and funds are easy. Bonds not so. Currently I manually update a CSV file based on info from my fido & VG account info then update gnucash from that. If ...
by bikenfool
Fri Jul 17, 2015 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any reason to hold short-term bonds with a long-term horizon?
Replies: 29
Views: 3259

Re: Any reason to hold short-term bonds with a long-term horizon?

Larry Swedroe's book on bonds talks about this. Long-term bonds have higher interest rate risk than short-term bonds. That is, if you're holding a long-term bond and interest rates rise by 1%, the drop in value is much larger than it would be for a short-term bond. OK, that's fine, you should be co...
by bikenfool
Fri Jun 26, 2015 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Safety of non-profit 457b
Replies: 5
Views: 625

Re: Safety of non-profit 457b

A 457(b) plan must be held in a trust for the exclusive benefit of the plan's participants and beneficiaries. Section 457(g)(3) of the IRC allows public (governmental) plans to use qualifying annuity contracts and/or custodial accounts in lieu of, or in addition to, a trust to satisfy this requirem...
by bikenfool
Fri Jun 26, 2015 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Safety of non-profit 457b
Replies: 5
Views: 625

Re: Safety of non-profit 457b

My thought is that if you are able to spread it out over 2 years and remain under 15%, that would be a suitable solution. Have you studied the options carefully? I think you will be paying the 15% eventually, so it doesn't seem so bad. You could put it into taxable where gains would be CG, (and als...
by bikenfool
Fri Jun 26, 2015 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Safety of non-profit 457b
Replies: 5
Views: 625

Safety of non-profit 457b

Wife is retiring soon, from a non-profit corp (medical), and has money in a 457. We have the option to stretch out the withdrawals, or take it all. I understand that these funds are at risk to the corp creditors if they should go belly up. The NP corp seems pretty solid now, but who knows what a few...
by bikenfool
Tue Nov 11, 2014 3:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Seasonal Indexation Impacts in TIPS Prices and Yields
Replies: 26
Views: 4221

Re: Seasonal Indexation Impacts in TIPS Prices and Yields

From the OP, if date dated = settlement date then SABeven = 1, but there is still an SABodd term, so even at the time of original issue the stated YTM is in error? That's what the equations seem to show, but it seems like the seasonal adjustments should average out over time, especially at original ...
by bikenfool
Fri Nov 07, 2014 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Seasonal Indexation Impacts in TIPS Prices and Yields
Replies: 26
Views: 4221

Re: Seasonal Indexation Impacts in TIPS Prices and Yields

Thanks for digging into this mindbogle, I still don't understand it though . Unfortunately the referenced paper requires a subscription, or a purchase. I found a couple of other ones which didn't though: m) https://portal.idc.ac.il/en/main/research/CaesareaCenter/events/Documents/The%20Effect%20of%2...
by bikenfool
Tue Nov 04, 2014 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield Curve Investigations
Replies: 71
Views: 12775

Re: Yield Curve Investigations

Ok, I will throw out something about the real yields that has been puzzling me.... Below is a chart of yields for TIPS bonds with greater than 1 year maturity from the WSJ for 10/28/2014. I have colored that data into two groups - those bonds that mature in the month of July (red), and all other bo...
by bikenfool
Wed Jun 11, 2014 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: A Decade of Super-Low Returns [1.4% for 60/40]
Replies: 232
Views: 29896

Re: Bernstein: A Decade of Super-Low Returns [1.4% for 60/40

If you use this to instead motivate yourself to save more or hold of retirement for a couple of years you are on sounder ground. The future is an uncertain place. While people can and usually do far worse than listening to Bernstein, making a bunch of market timing calls based on a chart that forms...
by bikenfool
Fri Jun 06, 2014 2:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 15% bracket: convert IRA or tax gain harvest?
Replies: 36
Views: 3756

Re: 15% bracket: convert IRA or tax gain harvest?

JambokLive wrote:Another thing to consider is that in the 15% tax bracket...you may qualify for substantial ACA credit that could amount to 10-12k in savings each year....

ACA credit? I assume that's affordable care act. Hmmm, that throws another variable in the stew.
by bikenfool
Thu Mar 20, 2014 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS yield stairstep increase
Replies: 13
Views: 2320

Re: TIPS yield stairstep increase

It's actually the July maturity that the market seems to prefer. Thats what I meant to say I only did it to avoid making the user scroll. (The board software adds a vertical scroll bar when the number of rows in a code block exceeds 13.) But I've gone ahead and edited my original post to include th...
by bikenfool
Wed Mar 19, 2014 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS yield stairstep increase
Replies: 13
Views: 2320

Re: TIPS yield stairstep increase

So we have no explanation for the non-smooth increase in rates. Maybe people just prefer bonds maturing in Jan instead of July :?
Is there a reason you left 2024 out of your table?
by bikenfool
Tue Mar 18, 2014 10:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS yield stairstep increase
Replies: 13
Views: 2320

Re: TIPS yield stairstep increase

ok, for the 2022 TIPS the inflation factor for the Jan issue counters the extra 6 months, resulting in yield very similar. Sounds reasonable. For the 2023 TIPS the higher coupon of the July issue offsets the longer maturity, perhaps the duration is similar? Also slightly lower inflation factor. Soun...
by bikenfool
Tue Mar 18, 2014 7:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS yield stairstep increase
Replies: 13
Views: 2320

TIPS yield stairstep increase

Can someone explain the stairstep rise in yield for TIPS maturing 2021-2024? The yld increases very little from 1/15/22 to 7/15/22, and actually decreases from 1/15/23 to 7/15/23. This data is from fidelity, but the quotes from VG show the same trend. Year to year the increase is ~0.15% Coupon Matur...
by bikenfool
Sun Mar 09, 2014 10:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Benjamin Graham thinks current S&P valuations are reasonable
Replies: 67
Views: 11831

Re: Benjamin Graham thinks current S&P valuations are reason

AndrewXnn wrote:TIPs are underwater until January 2021 and
less than 1% until 2029.

http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3020-tips.html

and right now 3 mo Tbills are yielding 0.05%, which is about negative 1.5-2% real.
by bikenfool
Sun Mar 09, 2014 10:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Customer service - Vanguard vs Fidelity
Replies: 93
Views: 14658

Re: Customer service - Vanguard vs Fidelity

I have accounts at both. Similar customer service experiences, both OK. What really torqued me off with Fidelity was getting hit with a $50 closeout fee to transfer a Roth from fido to VG. VG doesn't have closeout fees.
by bikenfool
Tue Feb 25, 2014 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Question for Dr. Bernstein
Replies: 55
Views: 6639

Re: Bond Question for Dr. Bernstein

I'm puzzled by this outperformance of the short term T bill. Let's start over. What outperformance are you talking about? Bill Bernstein pointed out earlier that the shorter-term securities did better during the years when interest rates rose a lot, which is what I thought you were asking about. Th...
by bikenfool
Tue Feb 25, 2014 2:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Question for Dr. Bernstein
Replies: 55
Views: 6639

Re: Bond Question for Dr. Bernstein

^Correct. That's the nature of interest-rate or term risk. Extending maturity results in more price sensitivity to interest-rate changes (more risk); sometimes the risk is rewarded, sometimes not (i.e., the risk "shows up"). Kevin My point was that avg 10 yr rates are higher than 1 yr rat...
by bikenfool
Tue Feb 25, 2014 9:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Question for Dr. Bernstein
Replies: 55
Views: 6639

Re: Bond Question for Dr. Bernstein

I'm puzzled by this outperformance of the short term T bill. I can see that the rise up to the 80's peak in rates would raise havoc with returns, but since the yld on 10 yr treas is usually higher than a 1 yr treas (0.95% average since 53), how can the long term returns be higher for the lower yiel...
by bikenfool
Mon Feb 24, 2014 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Question for Dr. Bernstein
Replies: 55
Views: 6639

Re: Bond Question for Dr. Bernstein

I'm puzzled by this outperformance of the short term T bill. I can see that the rise up to the 80's peak in rates would raise havoc with returns, but since the yld on 10 yr treas is usually higher than a 1 yr treas (0.95% average since 53), how can the long term returns be higher for the lower yield...
by bikenfool
Thu Feb 20, 2014 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds go in taxable (whitecoatinvestor aka EmergDoc article)
Replies: 155
Views: 20834

Re: Bonds go in taxable (whitecoatinvestor aka EmergDoc arti

Good points have been made in the article and other threads on the subject. The issues the OP raises are relevant too. The article is probably a reasonable example for the young high wage earner for which the article is probably directed, but there are 2 advantages to equities in taxable that have b...
by bikenfool
Tue Feb 18, 2014 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retiring with Mortgage Debt
Replies: 21
Views: 2008

Re: Retiring with Mortgage Debt

Paying off a mortgage is the safest investment available. Comparable to a CD or a treasury. You have to go out pretty long to get 3% on a CD or a treasury. I'm pretty conservative & I would pay it off, but not at the expense of cap gains taxes. Pay it down from income while you're still working,...
by bikenfool
Fri Feb 14, 2014 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are VICBX and VCIT the same fund, diff share class
Replies: 3
Views: 912

Re: Are VICBX and VCIT the same fund, diff share class

There is also VICSX which is the admiral share class fund, $10k min. but it has a 0.25% purchase fee :twisted:
by bikenfool
Thu Feb 13, 2014 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are TIPS right for retired investors?
Replies: 64
Views: 6230

Re: Are TIPS right for retired investors?

Makes sense. So there is no point in owning the fund over the last 10 years (and possibly the future). They may differ and in the short term but are likely to be close over an extended period of time? The return was close over that time period because inflation was close to 'expected'. If we see hi...
by bikenfool
Tue Jan 28, 2014 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Riding the Yield Curve
Replies: 52
Views: 4902

Re: Riding the Yield Curve

It shows that "riding the yield curve" strategy is a crapshoot. The OP thought that it increases the returns of a bond portfolio by quite a bit (~1%) in a positive sloping yield curve like we have now. Well the expected return may have been higher, but the actual result was to reduce the ...
by bikenfool
Fri Jan 24, 2014 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Riding the Yield Curve
Replies: 52
Views: 4902

Re: Riding the Yield Curve

It was one I started--something like, "Treasuries and CDs reconsidered.". (I'm on my little tablet at the moment so copying a link in is kind of a pain. ) Must be this one: http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=118751 Thanks stlutx for pointing me to the other thread, t...
by bikenfool
Wed Jan 22, 2014 11:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Riding the Yield Curve
Replies: 52
Views: 4902

Re: Riding the Yield Curve

stlutz wrote:It was one I started--something like, "Treasuries and CDs reconsidered.". (I'm on my little tablet at the moment so copying a link in is kind of a pain. :happy )

Must be this one:
http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=118751
by bikenfool
Wed Jan 22, 2014 10:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Riding the Yield Curve
Replies: 52
Views: 4902

Re: Riding the Yield Curve

stlutz wrote:We discussed this issue in another thread several months back. ....

Can you point us to that thread?
by bikenfool
Wed Jan 22, 2014 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Riding the Yield Curve
Replies: 52
Views: 4902

Re: Riding the Yield Curve

I think your are overestimating the effect. Without getting into the weeds too much, if you had a five year note that your could sell with one year remaining at a 1% premium your "bonus" for riding the curve is 1%/5 years or 0.2%. (Maybe it's 1%/4 years.) But in any case the bond traders ...
by bikenfool
Wed Jan 22, 2014 1:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Riding the Yield Curve
Replies: 52
Views: 4902

Riding the Yield Curve

I've been pondering the technique of 'riding the yield curve'. It seems to me that it increases the returns of a bond portfolio by quite a bit (~1%) in a positive sloping yield curve like we have now. This leads me to a few questions. It's been said here many times that the 30 day SEC yield is the b...
by bikenfool
Fri Jan 17, 2014 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good Bogleheads Podcasts?
Replies: 12
Views: 2006

Re: Good Bogleheads Podcasts?

I hadn't noticed the podcast section on the wiki before It seems a little out of place since everything else on that page (http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Financia ... _and_blogs) is either boglehead oriented or general news. It seems like the Podcast section should have a disclaimer that some of the podcasts listed are 80% bad ideas.
by bikenfool
Sat Jan 04, 2014 8:22 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard or Fidelity or Schwab vs. Merrill Lynch
Replies: 22
Views: 6959

Re: Vanguard or Fidelity or Schwab vs. Merrill Lynch

Fidelity has a better website than VG. Vg has more and better low cost options.
by bikenfool
Thu Dec 19, 2013 7:53 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Denver Meetup for Feb 2014 (please respond)
Replies: 13
Views: 1930

Re: Denver Meetup for Feb 2014 (please respond)

Thanks for doing this. I responded to poll also. There is some confusion about the time zone, I got a msg pop up that said that the poll was in pacific time. That isn't critical to me, I just like to keep my weekends open for recreation. REI starbucks is OK w me, another idea would be a library, the...
by bikenfool
Fri Dec 13, 2013 7:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 25y/o making $30k
Replies: 16
Views: 1577

Re: 25y/o making $30k

My suggested priorities are a little different than previous responders. 1) Keep up the 401k to get the match 2) Pay off the credit card and pay it off every month (I think your hearing a theme here ) 3) Keep up the minimum payments on the car, and put the rest toward the student loan. 4)Once the st...
by bikenfool
Thu Dec 12, 2013 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Short term corp funds, VFSUX > yield than VCSH?
Replies: 6
Views: 936

Short term corp funds, VFSUX > yield than VCSH?

Can anyone explain why the 30 day SEC yield for Vanguard Short-Term Investment-Grade Fund (VFSUX) is better than Vanguard Short-Term Corp Bond Idx (VCSH) even tho the duration is shorter and the holdings are similar? VFSUX - 1.61%, 2.33 yr duration, VCSH - 1.36%, 2.88 yr duration both avg credit qua...
by bikenfool
Sat Dec 07, 2013 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 'Hold Bonds to Maturity' Problem
Replies: 65
Views: 4478

Re: The 'Hold Bonds to Maturity' Problem

Yes, of course, there must be indexes that don't hold short term. I should have said 'total bond market' index instead of worded it the way I did.
by bikenfool
Sat Dec 07, 2013 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 'Hold Bonds to Maturity' Problem
Replies: 65
Views: 4478

Re: The 'Hold Bonds to Maturity' Problem

I've been following this thread & something just hit me about the distinction between liability matching/non-rolling and a rolling ladder. As one who is getting close to the draw down (non working) phase of life I've been following this & I've carried a misconception that I would be liabilit...
by bikenfool
Wed Nov 27, 2013 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Brokered CD paying better than direct Bank CD
Replies: 0
Views: 265

Brokered CD paying better than direct Bank CD

I'm looking at rolling over my 401k to VG and my options for the portion that is currently in Stable Value Fund (currently paying ~1%). I think a liability matching short term CD ladder makes sense for me. I was surprised to see brokered CD's paying better than direct bank CD's. I can get 1.25% for ...
by bikenfool
Fri Nov 15, 2013 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: very short term TIPS pricing
Replies: 5
Views: 625

Re: very short term TIPS pricing

Thanks for the clarification & the link to the other thread (which I missed). I see now that it's very sensitive to the change in inflation index for the next 2 months, and past history suggests that negative is very possible, perhaps expected.
by bikenfool
Thu Nov 14, 2013 10:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: very short term TIPS pricing
Replies: 5
Views: 625

Re: very short term TIPS pricing

The inflation adjustments on TIPS are based on the CPI from two months earlier. Thus all TIPS will get a December inflation adjustment based on October inflation, which is already known; if October inflation was unusually low, the TIPS will not keep up with December inflation, and investors will de...
by bikenfool
Thu Nov 14, 2013 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: very short term TIPS pricing
Replies: 5
Views: 625

very short term TIPS pricing

I've noticed some anomalies in the TIPS pricing at very short maturities (<6 months). For example, right now VG is showing the 1/15/2014 TIPS ask yield at 0.674. Is there a catch? I realize its only 2 months to maturity and the interest earned wouldn't be very much & might not be worth the troub...
by bikenfool
Mon Nov 11, 2013 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Secondary market TIPS spread
Replies: 1
Views: 229

Secondary market TIPS spread

Do we always have to pay the ask price for secondary market TIPS? I ask because I tried to buy some last week (at Fidelity) and put in a limit order somewhere between bid and ask & it didn't get filled. Fidelity only allows fill or kill orders for these. After trying twice (maybe it was 3) times...