Bogleheads.org

142 billion withdrawals over 2 days against 175million deposits.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/28/svb-cus ... -says.html

That bank runs in digital era can be over before it is known to common folks!!!

They removed fingerprint and faceID recently? I used to login in few seconds. Now it is a pain. I am also not sure why password manager does not work.

hybrids are old stuff. Latest "tech/fads" are Phev/EV's ( although they are not a fad to me.)

Hybrids save enough gas that over the long run, they cost less even with battery replacement. For eg: A 2011 prius battery replacement cost $1200. But mpg is >50. A RAV4 hybrid is 40mpg vs a regular gas mpg of 28 from 3 years ago.

HeavyChevy wrote: ↑Fri Mar 24, 2023 10:11 am I put two children through school at full retail due to 25 years of regular savings beforehand. Some of my peers saved little, and their children seemed to qualify for more aid. Can this happen, or is this just a delusion: can more savings decrease awarded aid?

+1 and to er999 question. Essentially are there better ways/areas to save to keep retirement options flexible but also get aid if some part of plan fails?
For ex: save in mega back door roth for college before 529 since it is considered as retirement money?

I have a Honda clarity. The winter ranges drop more than you expect. In summer I get around 48 miles and in winter 35-40 miles. And I live in SF Bay area.

I have owned a phev for 5 years now. If I had to do again, I would have gone full electric or a hybrid. The Phev ain't bad but it feels like a nitpick optimization on hybrid. Given the range and daily charging, it is an optimization on hybrid for not much benefit in California.

It is just surprising, how quiet media and people are on debt ceiling limit. In 2011, I remember watching some news every week about some senators etc., discussing across party aisles to reach an agreement. Considering what is going on in news cycle right now, it is just crazy, there is no thought being wasted on debt ceiling! I have read a recent report that there was a plan of action setup last time as last resort. It has phased order something like: Stopping all federal pension funding. Only essential staff & departments working start sending only 70% of social security payments. sequestration to all major departments etc., Medicare sequestration. This is from fed notes: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC2011080...

I recently listened to the latest Wealthtrack. (https://wealthtrack.com/wheres-the-recession-leading-economist-nancy-lazar-on-the-legacy-liquidity-still-fueling-the-economy/) The economist there seems pretty savvy, and says these bank failures are something of a canary in the coal mine in terms of indicating a recession is coming. Another indicator of the pending recession (and accompanying drop in share prices) is the layoffs in big tech, which will soon move over to retail when the retail companies can't continue to increase their profits. She says a recession has been staved off due to all the liquidity in the economy. This thinking seems to make sense, but does it, really? And is it actionable (to some of us; for example, those of us w...

They are considering options including a sale! Did not expect the last part!

I also like Lance Lambert on twitter. I believe he is a reporter for Fortune but mostly sticks to housing news.
Calculated risk is obviously the greatest out there! (very data driven, away from politics, very little anchoring/personal-bias based conclusions)

"quicklinks " the three lines on top left ----> "your posts"

inverter wrote: ↑Mon Mar 13, 2023 12:26 pm

YoungSisyphus wrote: ↑Mon Mar 13, 2023 8:43 am Down 77% YTD, if I was a speculator might seem like a place to pitch fun money.

Moved part of my family's emergency fund ($400k) over and while not even a basis point of my portfolio, I just bought 10 shares @ $25. They've been a great banking partner.

me too @ 26.7. I saw it went down to 18, but was busy with getting kid ready for school in the morning. By the time I was back it was at 24. Either way this is <2% of my liquid.

A Reuters report on the same:

https://www.reuters.com/business/financ ... 023-03-12/

Their PE is under 10. I would but this bank. Given how many hassles for mortgage applications they do, they are very conservative with their money.

Within the last few years before death it's generally a mistake to sell low basis assets instead of withdrawing from tax-deferred accounts if the money is going to heirs. But if you're decades out from death, probably a mistake to spend tax protected accounts before taxable accounts for the following reasons: Tax protected growth Asset protection The IRA tax protected growth can be stretched Higher basis on the taxable assets so less tax cost there Also probably better off with a Roth conversion and leaving a Roth IRA if you're a long way out. I don't think I have ever seen a case where taxable before tax deferred was the right choice. You are almost always better off doing a blended approach. For the obvious case lets compare the taxes fo...

NiceUnparticularMan wrote: ↑Thu Mar 09, 2023 1:29 pm I note prices in most markets are probably still a bit above where they were one year ago in early 2022, albeit well below where they were last summer (even seasonally adjusted). 2021 or 2020 are likely still way below in most markets.

At least for San Francisco Bay area they are back to mid-late 2020 prices.

rockstar wrote: ↑Wed Mar 08, 2023 11:45 am The other bit to consider is the rising standard deduction. You might not have that much interest that exceeds it at $750k mortgage. That’s the problem I’m running into. I barely exceed it being single. I definitely don’t once I get married.

So consider this impact in the short term until the $750k limit rises.

It is a function of interest rates. At 2% interest is 15K. At 4.75%, it is 35K.

Not a bad idea. However I may stop after paying down to $1 - $1.1mill. As per the current tax law, limits will get raised to 1 mill in 2026 tax year which is just 2.8 years away. I am in CA and this is what I did.

I am surprised not much of California is mentioned yet for ocean lovers! Along CA-1 you can pick a spot and there is nothing to be disappointed. From San Diego to all the way Crescent city, there are just too many to name!

My favorite spots for a few:
Sunsets at Point Lobos state park.
At the sand dunes in pismo beach.
Any spot with sunset + moonrise in Santa Barbara.(as orange hues in Ocean on a side, another side of ocean turns greenish)
Golden gate park/ lower Marin coast hills
Mt Tamalpais
Point Reyes seashore (especially now with whale migration)
Duncan's landing/sunset boulders
Klamath - most high bluff view points
Crescent city - low tide beaches with rocks in the ocean.

https://i.imgur.com/9tlyQjR.png Most of the outperformance was pre-2000, and there were many underperforming years mixed in, so I think it's a little misleading of that news article to claim he beat the market for 3 decades. There are start dates you can enter where Berkshire loses to the market. Berkshire has annihilated the S&P 500 since Jan 2000 https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=2000&firstMonth=1&endYear=2023&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviati...

OP is on a working visa. OP does not have the time to wait for recovery. OP only have 60 days to find new employment if he is laid off. Thank you for that perspective. Well, now with a job in academia at least, the deportation fears are quelled. I could just be an unemployed dependent of a university professor and wait for a recovery, should one ever come. The issues/stressors are still the same, except we've removed the deportation risk: if I were unemployed, and pulled kids out of daycare, then we'd have enough savings to give us a good 5+ years of runway on a single income. The tough decision would be trying to guess, in that situation: If this time isn't different. If local housing prices are ever coming back to 2022-ish levels (which ...

For anyone Buying in bay area, this is very much quite a possibility. My thoughts: 1) OP's spouse must continue her job until this recession/whatever is happening passes through. This responsibility is on both of you. What if one of you gets laid off before end of the recession? ( none of the government programs apply when you are on visa and mortgage might end in default.) 2) Trim down expenses until you feel safe. (And this may take a WHILE). You mentioned you transferred 2 paid off houses to make this happen. I am not sure how much savings you have now outside house. You also mentioned 17 years of working and savings moved to personal residence. All of these lead to this conclusion: Are you saving enough for retirement? what about kid's ...

Doctor McQ, you are a rock star. I really enjoy your writing. I bet many of your students did as well! I skimmed the comments. I'll just say this- life is life. People operate with the information in front of them, the biases they carry, and the emotions that drive them. Your fictional parents did pretty great for not having a crystal ball, and were seemingly happy for many years. Nobody was eating cat food. That puts them in the top 0.1% for all of humanity across the years of civilization. They zigged and zagged as history and circumstances were unveiled. Well done. It's easy for us to stand on the pyramid of history and knowledge and cluck our tongues at others' mistakes. But what if another group, in 2060, looking back at us, are cluck...

scophreak wrote: ↑Fri Feb 17, 2023 11:11 am

inverter wrote: ↑Fri Feb 17, 2023 9:13 am Where are these numbers coming from? I purchased a Rheem 50 gal heat pump water heater and had it installed for $1600 and $500 respectively.

Agreed these numbers appear to be drastically inflated. An 80-gallon hybrid can be had for around $2500, with lower capacity models under $2k. $6800 including installation is highway robbery...

Thanks Inverter and Scophreak. I am trying to get more quotes.

Dakotah wrote: ↑Fri Feb 17, 2023 9:47 am I've had my HPWH for over 6 years now. Zero complaints. There was an immediate reduction in my electricity consumption, and it has the side benefit of dehumidifying my unfinished basement. The primary thing to be aware of is that it is much slower to heat the water. Depending on your usage pattern/level, you may want to consider getting a larger tank. That larger capacity will give you some buffer. Our 65 gal HPWH (always in Heatpump-only mode) is about the right size for my 3-person household.

Thank you for the suggestion. Our current one is 40gal for 3. We are planning for 50gal for 3 HPHW. Need to check if I can go larger.

Hi Everyone, Our water heater seems to enter last legs. Weird sounds and rust accumulation has just started. I went around to get quotes. We live in Bay area(peninsula) which has a mild weather through most of the year. I got a few quotes and need to decide on what we choose. 1) Heat pump water heater 50Gal - 8000 ($6,800 - for heater and install, $1200 for electrical work). However it has 6,500 in total incentives between state and federal. 2) Gas water heater 50gal - I got 2 quotes for the same heater. one is $3,850 and another for $1850. The location of our heater is very ideal - in garage, but separate cordoned area accessible from outside. It has vents into garage in most spots which removes the restrictions for louvre doors. One inte...

Hi Everyone, Our water heater seems to enter last legs. Weird sounds and rust accumulation has just started. I went around to get quotes. We live in Bay area(peninsula) which has a mild weather through most of the year. I got a few quotes and need to decide on what we choose. 1) Heat pump water heater 50Gal - 8000 ($6,800 - for heater and install, $1200 for electrical work). However it has 6,500 in total incentives between state and federal. 2) Gas water heater 50gal - I got 2 quotes for the same heater. one is $3,850 and another for $1850. The location of our heater is very ideal - in garage, but separate cordoned area accessible from outside. It has vents into garage in most spots which removes the restrictions for louvre doors. One inter...

A more interesting and perhaps worthwhile number for young couples is debt to free cash flow ratio. So for eg., If mortgage car and all other debt is at 500k and one has after taxes, living expenses and basic retirement ( may be employer match + 2 ira's) 50k left over per year - Tha ratio is 10:1. I would say that is a good ratio. Having over 20 may make ones life more stuck and over 30 is pretty much tough road with out income growth. A few things go into this number. It tells me how long I will be forced to work with at least same income setup before our obligations are done. This ratio can get distorted when one is just starting without student debt or when beyond financial independence. But the idea works for me/ young couples when eval...

adamthesmythe wrote: ↑Mon Jan 16, 2023 12:19 pm None of the above. Normal zoom, 18-50 or 18- a bit more.

Not big, not heavy, inexpensive.

My choice as well.
OP, 35mm among those you listed.
50mm is purely for portraits in my view.

It is zero, if at the end of the past year after conversion the balance is zero in all IRA's combined. If you are contributing and converting at the same time, this is the simplest of tax forms. So to answer your question it is zero. The basis of the Roth is not tracked by IRS as a separate field. Some tax software ask for it and track to help you. Usually you will have a basis if the value of the account at the end of last year is non zero. Or you rolled over a 401k. Example: you add 6000 on Dec 30th 2021. you add another 600 on Jan 10th 2022. On Jan 15th you convert 12000 to Roth IRA. In the case, while doing your 2022 taxes, you send a 8606 for 2021 separately. For 2022, on 8606 basis is 6000 and contribution is 6000. for 1099R, you add ...

A friend mine, who is not a BH, read some of this thread and said- and I quote: " I am calling BS on this thread. Most of those responding are exaggerating their amount of wealth." I tried to explain to him that the folks here are atypical of the majority, live below their means, successful, and financially driven. He doesn't' believe me or what the responders here have stated. lol, I would say the opposite is true on bogleheads. Back when we had polls and more anonymous, the median wealth of 50 year old here is above $1.5 million on a few hundred votes. When people have to post, some choose not to due to privacy reasons or it just did not pop up when they logged in. Some view it as bragging and refrain from it. The greatest achi...

We have been having the exact same debate. We are leaning towards a 2023 Odyssey - while we would love to get the better gas mileage of the Sienna, we really prefer the flexibility to remove the middle seats from the Odyssey. I do worry a little about resale value of the Odyssey, given how vehicles are likely to evolve over the next few years, our plan would also be to keep it for 10-15 years and 150-200k miles. I really like that middle row magic slide seats on the Odyssey too. I’m not too overly concerned on resale since I plan on driving it until it’s basically worth nothing. I’m not a fan of that VCM on the Odyssey though. That seems like a bad design. I’d entertain the VCM muzzler if we bought an Odyssey. Wow, exact same boat! we were...

"Of course if you bought in 2020 and recently sold, you did well. Same with if you bought in 2004 and sold in 2006, bought in 1987 and sold in 1989, and so on." Being lucky is good. Being able to buy a good location is good. I bought in early 1980 and sold in 2020 after the pandemic started. I'd married the year before and moved to my wife's home and had no interest in doing another complete renovation to keep up with the neighbors. A Home Depot renovation using kitchen and bath sale items would not have worked. Buyers were looking for custom work with marble and granite and such. And the idea of being a landlord of a 104-year-old building with contractors in short, short, short supply was not part of my retirement plan. I'd reti...

Very interesting thread OP. I think I will be in your shoes in few years. This is what I would call at the edge of escape velocity in planetary physics terms. If you work few more years, you are compounding at a rate beyond what you need. If you retire now, you can live happily as the probable outcome. few aspects here: my assumption was 20K taxes for your spouse (fed+ state+FICA) yielding 80K of income for personal consumption. Based on that, 1) personally, I will find another job. Knock that mortgage off and then retire. It eliminates almost every risk for you(addressed below) 2) Alternatively you can pad you number until you reach 3.3% withdrawal of additional 80k (2.45M). 3) current plan requires spouse to cover until social security ki...

This is my wife’s wonderful creative cooking frugality that I was just the souls-chef for. Had pizza for dinner by buying a loaf of bread, cutting it horizontally in half, putting on 3/4 jar of tomato sauce, lunch meat pepperoni, and shredded cheese! Put it in the oven for 8 minutes at 400F then voila! When sharing this with my mother-in-law (where my wife learned her creative cooking frugality from) she said this same concept can be applied to bagels and others! Growing up a Southern Baptist music minister’s daughter exposed my wife to these cooking hacks and stretches. We do the same thing using english muffins! It started as a snow day tradition when our kids were little but has now worked its way into the regular dinner rotation. For u...

Big Heart wrote: ↑Fri Jan 27, 2023 3:10 pm
Am I missing anything? And - Do you think I found a fair price?

I do not think you are missing anything but a few points of interest. The workplace disability might be taxable while the LTD is not since it is paid with after tax money. There are some interesting quirks like that. Do note the cost does not stay flat depending on riders you have. They will inflation adjust every year - both benefit and policy. Some have additional riders like inflation and income based.

White Coat Investor wrote: ↑Fri Jan 27, 2023 1:23 pm

ray.james wrote: ↑Fri Jan 27, 2023 11:14 am

White Coat Investor wrote: ↑Fri Jan 27, 2023 8:33 am

TwstdSista wrote: ↑Fri Jan 27, 2023 8:22 am It always amazes me when people can do their taxes this early

Simplicity has its virtues. I'm with LiveSoft. I probably won't even meet with my accountant until the 2nd week of October. It's a rush just to figure out which states I will need to file extensions for.

I can understand end of feb or April buy why wait until October?

I think my last K-1 came in August last year. Accountants get busy too. So since I quit doing the returns myself, it seems to be a big rush the second week of April to get extensions in and best guesses on payments made and then a big rush in October to finish it all.

Ah I see. I know K1's can be delayed quite a bit due not that late!

I expect our budget will be very close to last year. We specifically track to see where money is going but are not hellbent on budgeting exact amount for any category. San Francisco bay area, 1 kid just started elementary last year.(2k daycare -> 1k after school mid year). Data from Mint. PITI is 71k, rest of housing is cleaner, appliance upgrade and maintenance. Food and dining covers groceries, eating out, cleaning supplies, anything at Costco including some clothing. Shopping covers clothing, electronics, target(sometimes minor food items). Shopping category seem to swing between 1k ->5K depending on the year. 1 paid off car and a bike.(looking to add an e-bicycle/e-scooter this year). Entertainment covers day trips ,national park and go...

White Coat Investor wrote: ↑Fri Jan 27, 2023 8:33 am

TwstdSista wrote: ↑Fri Jan 27, 2023 8:22 am It always amazes me when people can do their taxes this early

Simplicity has its virtues. I'm with LiveSoft. I probably won't even meet with my accountant until the 2nd week of October. It's a rush just to figure out which states I will need to file extensions for.

I can understand end of feb or April buy why wait until October?

After years of being frugal and careful, one can truly never become a bad spender with out a lot of effort. However, there is one thing that can help.

Like delayed gratification is practiced for generating wealth, if one has more than needed, an instant gratification in some areas can help. Help children buy a home. fund 529 for grandkids. Annual mega family vacation that is paid for. Charity contributions and activity planned for later. There can be justified and helps in pulling in spending earlier than expected.

Now in regards to materialistic things, for years they are delayed for better retirement success. One needs to fight that and loosen the purse strings. If not, not much is lost either.

When I looked into these numbers a few months back, it follow's HUD's definition of income and poverty guidelines. So the income is truly gross and not AGI. I am a California resident and I found this CA document quite helpful! https://www.hcd.ca.gov/docs/grants-and-funding/inc2k22.pdf It explain how HUD defines as a median and low income for a region. What are the factors used for change in number of household. For ex, HUD uses 90% of 4 household median as median income for a household of size 3. Although the above document uses county medians, you can use city/zip median's which is on HUD's website for 2022 data. One data point of interest, a lot of federal programs use 50%, 80%, 100% and 120% median income in several calculations but non...

Wannaretireearly wrote: ↑Wed Jan 25, 2023 11:41 am once you reach a portfolio multiple of expenses like the OP has, i believe momentum plays a big factor. Working or not, the pile gets bigger

^^ this. You can just coast along. May be work in foreign countries in simple jobs for few months an year, experiencing the local culture and enjoying life.

OP, you are in 35% Federal tax, which means there is NO way to get any "need-based" scholarships from any school. Without knowing your other finance goals, but 100k 529 balance is just NOT enough for 4 years college. As now, after adding board and room, for 4 years college In state flag public is around 140K Out state public is around 200k to 250k Private is around 280k to 320k I agree with you that paying taxable cash for it is very pain. Unfortunately, it is kind of late now. 529 is the best tools for family in or above 35% Federal tax bucket. You just need to plan it thoroughly. The threshold for the 35% income bracket is $216,000. Based on Harvard's net price calculator, a family with income of $216,000 and $100,000 in assets...

+1 to previous posters tips on Costco. For fruit particularly, I buy only 2/3 varieties at a time. Banana, a stone fruit and a berry. The next trip will be different ones. When you are buying in bulk, buy one / two variety each week rather than all. Similar stratergy with fresh produce.

We live in SF bay area. Family of 3. I have shared before in few posts here:
viewtopic.php?p=6492563#p6492563 - general cost and strategy.
viewtopic.php?p=6786571#p6786571 - A week of spending at Costco. $150 per week.

Also, a note on budget. In general we buy most of our cleaning supplies, toilet paper etc. at Costco. Our grocery budget includes these. The only time I separate Costco items is for things like appliances, tires/other high value items. Even clothes, jackets etc. get categorized into grocery if we buy at Costco and often the grocery budged at end of year stays under $650.

Hmnn that makes sense. They try to buy Prius. XLE is 29k. But with dealer mark up, it is 40 to 45k. The they see model 3 LR on Tesla site that can be ordered with no mark up and haggling needed at 49k. Then there is 7,500 to sweeten the deal to Prius price.

If those profit margins are legit then plenty of room on the cost curve for me to wait and see what comes by 2025 Might not need to wait that long. Looks like Tesla made some serious price cuts to meet the new tax credit with a maximum $55k MSRP limit for "not SUV" (which includes the Model 3 and Model Y configured with 5 seats). Model 3 MSRP now starts at $43,990 and even the performance version is $53,990 allowing for one $1k physical option (e.g., interior/exterior colors except red; and software doesn't count towards the limit). Whereas Model Y starts at $52,990 significantly down from $65,990, so a 20% MSRP decrease, and if you include the full $7,500 credit, it's over 30% cheaper than just a couple weeks ago -- $20,500 save...

squirrel1963 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 09, 2023 5:18 pm

assyadh wrote: ↑Mon Jan 09, 2023 1:33 pm Full webinar about this: https://youtu.be/LY2WKG-XTgw?t=499

In english

Very informative thanks much. I've come to the conclusion that if we ever move to Europe we'll move to France and not Italy. The latter tax system is just too complicated and expensive for a US citizen, especially in regard to Roth IRAs.

+1. Absolute gold. Thanks for sharing it!

Also forgot to add this. Data from 2020 but based on consumer reports testing: https://data.consumerreports.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/consumer-reports-active-driving-assistance-systems-november-16-2020.pdf Good stuff---much better than the uninformed opinion poll that this thread seems to be. And amazing that there is such a wide range. Basically there is no standardization, each manufacturer does its own thing. And the Japanese cars, long loved by Consumer Reports and the only cars I have ever owned, are particularly bad. Yup, very good report. Lots to look into! Glad you found it useful. AAA is another organization that tests autonomous system albeit not at this level. They have data for 2021/22. Link: https://newsroom.aaa.com/wp-co...

Based on my experience and friends review's 1) Tesla Auto pilot. 2) GM's Super cruise. (do note GM's have different levels of super cruise on different cars) 3) comma.AI In these three, I would trust to use the auto-cruise setting on highway's as long as there is no rain, snow, weird sun angle( half an hour around sunrise and sunset in direct angles). I expect 0-1 disengagement per 100 miles but not more than that in these conditions. Other systems like BMW, Mercedes are close but I do not trust 100% to use them. In other driving situations, most of the above 3 can be used to varying degree. I'm curious about comma.ai -- did you (or your friend) actually buy a kit and install it on a compatible car? I would like to play with a kit myself. ...

Based on my experience and friends review's 1) Tesla Auto pilot. 2) GM's Super cruise. (do note GM's have different levels of super cruise on different cars) 3) comma.AI In these three, I would trust to use the auto-cruise setting on highway's as long as there is no rain, snow, weird sun angle( half an hour around sunrise and sunset in direct angles). I expect 0-1 disengagement per 100 miles but not more than that in these conditions. Other systems like BMW, Mercedes are close but I do not trust 100% to use them. In other driving situations, most of the above 3 can be used to varying degree. I'm curious about comma.ai -- did you (or your friend) actually buy a kit and install it on a compatible car? I would like to play with a kit myself. ...