Search found 822 matches

by ray.james
Sat Oct 21, 2017 1:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller: the 1987 stock market panic can happen again
Replies: 29
Views: 2355

Re: Shiller: the 1987 stock market panic can happen again

circuit breakers?
Last I know they are at 7.5% and 10%.
by ray.james
Fri Oct 13, 2017 6:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [Social Security announces 2.0% benefit increase for 2018]
Replies: 26
Views: 3260

Re: [Social Security announces 2.0% benefit increase for 2018]

A lot smaller tax increase than 2016 ($118,500 max) to 2017 ($127,200 max). Boy did they jack it up last time. :x I believe it was the compounded effect for 2 years due to how it is structured. The law states that the taxable earnings cap cannot increase in years when there is no COLA. Since Social...
by ray.james
Thu Oct 05, 2017 12:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bay Area Real Estate
Replies: 154
Views: 14309

Re: Bay Area Real Estate

But look, SV may be a great place for a real-estate investment for years to come still. I don't know. SV still "offers deep funding and talent reservoirs that are largely unrivaled." But one more double in real-estate values will make SV housing cost 10x as much as the rest of the country. Another ...
by ray.james
Thu Oct 05, 2017 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Predicting the Next Recession: Ben Carlson
Replies: 3
Views: 638

Re: Predicting the Next Recession: Ben Carlson

I especially like his second table. 6 month prior returns, during recession and 12 months later returns.
Just all over the place!
by ray.james
Wed Oct 04, 2017 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: First time home buyer - gut check
Replies: 19
Views: 1316

Re: First time home buyer - gut check

Not sure how long you have been making 240K but putting 10% down seems to be on low end. It might due to maxing everything. Take a breather for couple of years to save up to 20%/payoff 10% loan early if you chose to buy. 10% of 500K is 50K which should be easy to do in 1- 1.5 year at that income lev...
by ray.james
Tue Sep 26, 2017 12:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bay Area Real Estate
Replies: 154
Views: 14309

Re: Bay Area Real Estate

I live in Bay area and we have contemplated this question quite a bit. We have enough down payment to buy in 800-900k range in east bay. However 3 factors weigh against it for us. 1) Commute is getting increasingly worse. Some areas across peninsula and east bay take 30 mins to get on the ramp. Give...
by ray.james
Mon Sep 25, 2017 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 3972
Views: 1058521

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

livesoft wrote:
Mon Sep 25, 2017 3:41 pm
At least one ETF that I own had an RBD today.

OTOH, US small cap value funds were up today and have done quite well in the past week.
Was that Emerging markets? :happy
by ray.james
Thu Sep 21, 2017 5:57 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: DC Bogleheads Meeting in Ballston with Sita Slavov
Replies: 23
Views: 2017

Re: DC Bogleheads Meeting in Ballston with Sita Slavov

Ray, I did not have slides. I used concepts from my thread "Beyond Equifax: Dealing with ID theft" https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=227487 and shared some other cyber security insights. I emphasized that one of the most valuable things to guard is one's email address , especiall...
by ray.james
Wed Sep 20, 2017 4:36 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: DC Bogleheads Meeting in Ballston with Sita Slavov
Replies: 23
Views: 2017

Re: DC Bogleheads Meeting in Ballston with Sita Slavov

... In the last twenty minutes of our meeting Victoria gave a presentation on how to stay safe online, in an age where security breaches to major financial institutions appear to occur on a monthly basis. I had asked Victoria if she would lead a discussion on the topic, instead Victoria made the ex...
by ray.james
Mon Sep 18, 2017 12:53 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Account security - Hackers gain access to mobile and then break havoc
Replies: 157
Views: 11458

Re: Account security - Hackers gain access to mobile and then break havoc

Thanks for more tips from several posters. When I made this thread, I thought this was a crazy hack that someone was able to do and the reimbursement of losses were unclear. The success of first 2 steps - Phone and email; depends on a lot of things. After that in several cases they can do a lot of d...
by ray.james
Fri Sep 15, 2017 7:36 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Account security - Hackers gain access to mobile and then break havoc
Replies: 157
Views: 11458

Re: Account security - Hackers gain access to mobile and then break havoc

They do not know my other account security questions unless that stuff is posted on the Facebook pages. Please advise. If that were the case, you are much more secure. Do note, they have access to emails and changed your email reset questions too in addition to mobileaccess. From emails they can ch...
by ray.james
Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:43 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Account security - Hackers gain access to mobile and then break havoc
Replies: 157
Views: 11458

Re: Account security - Hackers gain access to mobile and then break havoc

For services that allow TOTP (Time-Based One-Time Passcode), ALWAYS choose that option instead of SMS or email. They will show you a QR code one time, you take a picture of it using an authenticator app on your phone--there are tons of these, from Google, MS, etc--and from then forward your phone g...
by ray.james
Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Account security - Hackers gain access to mobile and then break havoc
Replies: 157
Views: 11458

Re: Account security - Hackers gain access to mobile and then break havoc

I think you are fooling yourself. Frankly, where I bank and where I invest they lock accounts when you don't know this stuff the first time around. As I have posted before, all accounts that deal with $$ have very long strong passwords which are in LastPass. LastPass has no mobile access allowed an...
by ray.james
Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:22 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Account security - Hackers gain access to mobile and then break havoc
Replies: 157
Views: 11458

Re: Account security - Hackers gain access to mobile and then break havoc

I posted about this in a few threads last week and each person responded like I was making it up and it wasn't an issue to them. Good luck. I saw your post in credit freeze thread. To me this sounds like something that can be executed much easier than bank hacking. Pretty scary. I am creating a new...
by ray.james
Thu Sep 14, 2017 2:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Account security - Hackers gain access to mobile and then break havoc
Replies: 157
Views: 11458

Account security - Hackers gain access to mobile and then break havoc

Found this on Reddit this morning. https://www.reddit.com/r/personalfinance/comments/7008lr/wifes_gmail_instagram_airbnb_venmo_paypal_and/ Hackers essentially gained access to the mobile number and then went on resetting every possible account. I think they might have a combination of birth day and ...
by ray.james
Tue Sep 12, 2017 2:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is it really Worth it to brown bag your lunch at work?
Replies: 313
Views: 18360

Re: Is it really Worth it to brown bag your lunch at work?

We go along hybrid route. Until few years ago I used to eat out almost 80% of meals. Now married and with a kid, we batch cook on weekend. That gets us to Wednesday. Baking, eating out, getting curry takeout and mix with veggie saute/rice at home gets us through rest of week in healthy cheap way. Ov...
by ray.james
Tue Sep 12, 2017 1:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What money to store outside for disaster?
Replies: 63
Views: 4919

Re: What money to store outside for disaster?

Raybo, I do not have an exact solution but a few thoughts. I am also based in SFO. I keep a few hundreds at home, couple hundred hidden in car. Water bottles in the car as well which we use and replenish. At home we use a water filter, so these bottles are part of disaster plan. I live in an apartme...
by ray.james
Wed Sep 06, 2017 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bought crypto currency
Replies: 67
Views: 3631

Re: Bought crypto currency

I think block chain as technology is here to stay. It has some advantages over the traditional ledger and is particularly applicable to some secure applications. Bitcoin/other to use as a currency is entirely different story. The whole idea seems to be on trust between the people using to exchange. ...
by ray.james
Fri Sep 01, 2017 12:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Demographic Headwinds for Stocks and Bonds?
Replies: 47
Views: 5116

Re: Demographic Headwinds for Stocks and Bonds?

Looking at Japan where consumption continues to decrease...one can only imagine its impact in china. The concept of 4 grandparents to 1 grandson/daughter is quite common now and the steps taken the government are too late. However this is also a transfer of multi generational wealth and will keep th...
by ray.james
Wed Aug 30, 2017 12:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: ICE, hybrid, Phev, electric for short trips
Replies: 36
Views: 1879

Re: ICE, hybrid, Phev, electric for short trips

For short trips, the electric only would be the clear winner. Less weight. Not hauling around an ICE engine. The ICE and similar are all to extend the range to be similar to non electric or hybrid cars. There are other aspects. Ride, comfort, handling in different types of weather. I couldn't get o...
by ray.james
Wed Aug 30, 2017 12:36 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: ICE, hybrid, Phev, electric for short trips
Replies: 36
Views: 1879

Re: ICE, hybrid, Phev, electric for short trips

Most people have to do the math because lots of websites with vested interests lie (Tesla's own site says I'd save $8 per 100 miles with an S....I did the math...I'd save 80 cents). Your use makes it pretty easy to go with a Leaf, especially because non-fanbois seem to hate the car, thus its value ...
by ray.james
Wed Aug 30, 2017 12:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: ICE, hybrid, Phev, electric for short trips
Replies: 36
Views: 1879

Re: ICE, hybrid, Phev, electric for short trips

I think the SV and SL always have a quick charge, but I don't recall exactly. Technically you don't need the quick charge for your use case (neither do I), but in the rare circumstance that you happen to be out with a low charge and can find a quick charge station it may be useful. Thanks Objective...
by ray.james
Tue Aug 29, 2017 4:13 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: ICE, hybrid, Phev, electric for short trips
Replies: 36
Views: 1879

Re: ICE, hybrid, Phev, electric for short trips

If you go for a SV or SL (instead of the S) you also get things like a quick charge port, heat pump, and other niceties. Does both SV and SL 2014/+ model always have quick port? How important is DC fast charging for this use case. I assume it gets charge once/twice per week. Edit: I will read more ...
by ray.james
Tue Aug 29, 2017 4:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: ICE, hybrid, Phev, electric for short trips
Replies: 36
Views: 1879

Re: ICE, hybrid, Phev, electric for short trips

How many miles are you driving on 3-5 mile trips? The whole issue might not be worth worrying about. Aside from that I would think an EV would be ideal. It wouldn't be ideal if in reality the car is ever used for long trips. Being left high and dry when you really need the car to go farther would n...
by ray.james
Tue Aug 29, 2017 4:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: ICE, hybrid, Phev, electric for short trips
Replies: 36
Views: 1879

Re: ICE, hybrid, Phev, electric for short trips

At 4500 miles per year, the difference between getting 20 MPGs and 60 MPGs is $450, and the difference between 20 MPGs and 125 MPGs is only about $550 You are right on fuel monetary aspect. It is not much at low mileage. I also added some savings like oil, other fluid changes and the major one of t...
by ray.james
Tue Aug 29, 2017 3:54 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: ICE, hybrid, Phev, electric for short trips
Replies: 36
Views: 1879

Re: ICE, hybrid, Phev, electric for short trips

Thanks for the comments. I think electric car seems ideal and given current used car market prices, they are extremely cheap. I will research more into it.
by ray.james
Tue Aug 29, 2017 1:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: ICE, hybrid, Phev, electric for short trips
Replies: 36
Views: 1879

ICE, hybrid, Phev, electric for short trips

I am trying to find some resources on which car gets better mileage under very short driving circumstances. One of our car sees only 3-5 miles trips at a time. Call it grocery store, take out, nearby mall, even work sometimes. I was never able to get the lower end of the city mileage due to this. It...
by ray.james
Thu Aug 24, 2017 12:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "I'm Bill Bengen, and I first proposed the 4% safe withdrawal rate in 1994. Ask me anything!"
Replies: 119
Views: 13998

Re: "I'm Bill Bengen, and I first proposed the 4% safe withdrawal rate in 1994. Ask me anything!"

My biggest take away was 4% rule works much different than I thought. Granted I never read about it rather than name, it made me realize not to assume much in finance. The 4% /4.5% rule is just the percentage for the starting year . From then onward, the amount is adjusted every year for inflation....
by ray.james
Thu Aug 24, 2017 2:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "I'm Bill Bengen, and I first proposed the 4% safe withdrawal rate in 1994. Ask me anything!"
Replies: 119
Views: 13998

Re: "I'm Bill Bengen, and I first proposed the 4% safe withdrawal rate in 1994. Ask me anything!"

My biggest take away was 4% rule works much different than I thought. Granted I never read about it rather than name, it made me realize not to assume much in finance. The 4% /4.5% rule is just the percentage for the starting year . From then onward, the amount is adjusted every year for inflation. ...
by ray.james
Thu Aug 17, 2017 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio options when relocation to home country India is possible in distant future
Replies: 18
Views: 1401

Re: Portfolio options when relocation to home country India is possible in distant future

Just to be crystal clear here, it is not a case of either/or for these taxes. For long-term green card holders and US citizens, running the US 'expatriation tax' gauntlet is precisely what then exposes them to the measly $60k US 'estate tax' exemption. Indeed. I realized it a while after I thought ...
by ray.james
Thu Aug 17, 2017 2:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio options when relocation to home country India is possible in distant future
Replies: 18
Views: 1401

Re: Portfolio options when relocation to home country India is possible in distant future

The big problem is that while the income tax paid limit is indexed for inflation the net worth limit is not. So, when the current expatriation tax laws went into effect in 2009 the tax paid limit was a five year average of $139K. That is now $162K. That $2 million in 2009 is still $2 million today ...
by ray.james
Wed Aug 16, 2017 7:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Mathematics of Retirement Investing
Replies: 123
Views: 14689

Re: The Mathematics of Retirement Investing

Dear Fozzy fosbourne, This thread is not about the advantages and drawbacks of a 60:40 portfolio against a 100:0 portfolio. We went over that, earlier in this thread. You're welcome to read earlier posts and discover why I am insisting to keep such a discussion for other threads. This thread is abo...
by ray.james
Wed Aug 16, 2017 6:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio options when relocation to home country India is possible in distant future
Replies: 18
Views: 1401

Re: Portfolio options when relocation to home country India is possible in distant future

The estate tax is levied on the US portion of an estate on death, and the exemption for non-resident aliens is a paltry $60k of US situs assets. A pre-tax retirement account such as an IRA or 401k is deemed to be a US situs asset, no matter what is held within it. Thank you, I am not aware of this....
by ray.james
Wed Aug 16, 2017 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Mathematics of Retirement Investing
Replies: 123
Views: 14689

Re: The Mathematics of Retirement Investing

LongInvest, this is a great thread. It took a little while to grasp what you are arriving at. And Crucher last post helped in grasping finer points. A number of retirement articles from CNBC to everywhere else which start with headline: "what happens if you save 1% more each year or 1 K more each ye...
by ray.james
Wed Aug 16, 2017 1:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio options when relocation to home country India is possible in distant future
Replies: 18
Views: 1401

Re: Portfolio options when relocation to home country India is possible in distant future

also learn about estate taxes, i.e. 40% of anything above $60000 What is this based on? Pretax retirement accounts or exit tax criteria for renunciation https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertwood/2017/02/27/renounce-u-s-heres-how-irs-computes-exit-tax/#35f0663e287d Edit: Even then it will only apply i...
by ray.james
Mon Aug 14, 2017 7:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tesla - next big lottery ticket ?
Replies: 177
Views: 17444

Re: Tesla - next big lottery ticket ?

I like their solar bonds though. 5.5% for 2-3 year terms. Pretty sweet deal when they offer.
by ray.james
Mon Aug 14, 2017 5:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio options when relocation to home country India is possible in distant future
Replies: 18
Views: 1401

Re: Portfolio options when relocation to home country India is possible in distant future

I do not know the complications from moving to India but a few pointers to think about. (a) Need more info to actually conclude. Also there is a mathematical optimal solution and then there is one that works for you and your situation. Also note, principal of roth from backdoor method can only be wi...
by ray.james
Fri Aug 11, 2017 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Redfin
Replies: 17
Views: 1956

Re: Redfin

I think they have a solid business model. There will be a lot of push back from realtors but for 90% of purchases, a full service provider does not add much value. They have indeed reduced net commission to 4.5%. If they continue it will end up settling around 2-3.5%
by ray.james
Mon Aug 07, 2017 2:22 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Celebrating 30 years with Vanguard!
Replies: 25
Views: 2260

Re: Celebrating 30 years with Vanguard!

Congratulations! That is quite a journey. In the era of internet and customer reviewed articles/books, people are finding this information much easier and hopefully making the informed choice to choosing vanguard/other low cost vendors. I am curious how people in 80's have chosen vanguard. What info...
by ray.james
Fri Aug 04, 2017 12:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much do kids cost in a high COLA?
Replies: 57
Views: 4009

Re: How much do kids cost in a high COLA?

I want to add points out side the daycare costs effect.(yeah daycare costs sometimes trump the rent too.) Buying a house in HCOL areas with good schools pushes one to spend too much too. Best schools are often in well funded areas and the homes plus income ranges tend to go up quite a bit. A lot of ...
by ray.james
Thu Aug 03, 2017 11:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much money do you want to retire?
Replies: 276
Views: 24383

Re: A poll: How much money do you need to retire?

$1.3 million of 2017 dollar plus paid off home for financial independence.(no social security)
To retire early at 50 -55, I might target 2- 2.5mill depending on healthcare and education inflation.
by ray.james
Thu Jul 27, 2017 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why are they beating S/P? What am I missing?
Replies: 72
Views: 4588

Re: Why are they beating S/P? What am I missing?

That is actually an impressive IRR. It might be pure luck or some value investor who completely thought tech was crap in 1999 and took measures to go around it. I know someone who went individual stocks against tech in 2000 and thereby stayed out of 2001-2003 by being in defensive consumer staple st...
by ray.james
Tue Jul 25, 2017 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Pausing 401k to Pay Debts?
Replies: 48
Views: 2397

Re: Pausing 401k to Pay Debts?

OP, You have a cash flow problem because of payments. I would do a debt snowball method to dig out of principal. That is pay off the one with least balance. In few months you will have more cash flow which you can use for next least balance until the cash flow is enough to build retirement / emergen...
by ray.james
Mon Jul 24, 2017 2:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks
Replies: 505
Views: 33970

Re: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks

Not another one of these threads again :( To those who are arguing that international has no place with out reading the attached article, ever really looked at the S&P chart of last 20 years without apple? Today S&P TTM total earnings stand at $95. Apples share is at 8.5. One company of S&P made 9% ...
by ray.james
Wed Jul 19, 2017 1:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks just got cheaper... per Vanguard [sudden change in Vanguard fund P/Es]
Replies: 29
Views: 4571

Re: Stocks just got cheaper... per Vanguard

I wouldn't worry about VG being very prompt and good about fund analytics projections. They only do backward looking earnings, do a fairly conservative handling of 0 and negative earnings and are not very prompt at updating the numbers. There are other sources which specialize in this stuff. The on...
by ray.james
Tue Jul 18, 2017 6:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buying house - Very important decision
Replies: 228
Views: 20156

Re: Buying house - Very important decision

PettyBogle, But so are Seattle, Denver, Austin, Raleigh, North NTC corridor, Portland, Salt Lake City, Phoenix which are actually far ahead. I do not think Nashville is even close as the tech jobs are concentrated in IT area rather than into product/start_ up/Cross-areas like biotech:manufacturing:r...
by ray.james
Mon Jul 17, 2017 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Personal Finance Milestone: 20 Times Annual Expense
Replies: 95
Views: 9334

Re: Personal Finance Milestone: 20 Times Annual Expense

Congratulations KalngFool.

The kids will understand your few more years of sacrifice to pay for their college once they are in real world. :beer
by ray.james
Mon Jul 17, 2017 2:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Accumulating Bonds During Record Stocks
Replies: 5
Views: 943

Re: Accumulating Bonds During Record Stocks

While I think you all could be right about market, if everyone is waiting for downturn, it is not going to happen. Even if it happens due to external shock, it will be small and short lived.

Bubbles like 2008/2001 are built on massive speculation but not fear.
by ray.james
Mon Jul 17, 2017 2:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Moving out of USA, How to optimize
Replies: 8
Views: 1254

Re: Moving out of USA, How to optimize

A few things: Note: I am not a current Lawyer/International Tax laws. - Are you planning to invest everything in USD? Make sure you have some residential address or vanguard/others will Kick accounts. - Are your kids planning to go for college is USA? 529 account investments are good for them to eve...
by ray.james
Fri Jul 14, 2017 9:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: To buy or not to buy... [a new car]
Replies: 43
Views: 4103

Re: To buy or not to buy...

New 2018 Camry's are rolling out across country and it is quite a bit of update. The mpg will ago get a +7 to +12 boost along with decent HP boost plus a lot others. This could be the cause of a new deal. With that age of the car, I would swap if a great deal presents itself.