Search found 848 matches

by ray.james
Tue Nov 28, 2017 7:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What would trigger the NEXT market meltdown?
Replies: 19
Views: 1574

Re: What would trigger the NEXT market meltdown?

I think a mismatch of fed tightening/inflation tug of war will cause the next one. I do not think extreme valuation unless we have atleast another great year like current one. Possible/upcoming tax changes adjustment to eps is expected at 10-15% which will bring P/E 1 to 20. ~~ just totally thinking...
by ray.james
Tue Nov 28, 2017 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tracking the Bitcoin Bubble in Real Time?
Replies: 70
Views: 4705

Re: Tracking the Bitcoin Bubble in Real Time?

I think Bitcoin should be cautionary tale for those who underestimate the pace at which disruption can and will move in the future. This is not to say whether people should or shouldn't put money into Bitcoin, I offer no opinion on that, but to say it is an example of how quickly something can occu...
by ray.james
Tue Nov 21, 2017 8:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Planning for the final months of work
Replies: 50
Views: 3736

Re: Planning for the final months of work

This is not correct. If you have a 4% 30-year mortgage, then it is a 4% 2-year loan two years before it ends. On a $250k loan at 4%, the amount of interest paid over the first 19 payments is $15,624 and the amount of interest paid over the last 19 payments is $811. Not sure why you say that is not ...
by ray.james
Tue Nov 21, 2017 8:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: TaxAct and alternatives
Replies: 62
Views: 4257

Re: TaxAct and alternatives

If there was indeed tax reform, I will be paying more for an year or two. But this is too much increase for me as well. As others I moved from TT to here. I will probably do by hand :P
by ray.james
Tue Nov 21, 2017 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Time for my checkup - **Warning - long post**
Replies: 16
Views: 1913

Re: Time for my checkup - **Warning - long post**

Both of you need minimum 20-year term life policies. At your age, if you’re in decent health, it should be about $500/year for $1M coverage. At minimum, you need enough for the survivor to pay off mortgage, fund college, and pay for child care (which includes someone to drive the kids around when t...
by ray.james
Mon Nov 20, 2017 5:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 529 or not 529?
Replies: 21
Views: 1960

Re: 529 or not 529?

So where would you save this extra money? In a brokerage account/Taxable account. If she chose to study in foreign country where tuition/college fee is much less, you can use the funds to pay down mortgage. this is indeed a flexible option than 529. You can choose all 529 or taxable or just go 50-5...
by ray.james
Mon Nov 20, 2017 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is holding bonds now dangerous?
Replies: 155
Views: 13827

Re: Is holding bonds now dangerous?

Bond funds do NOT always go down when interest rates go up. IN fact sometimes they also go up in value. Dont know why people think that. People think that because for an individual bond, price and yield do indeed always move in opposite directions, since they are mathematically just two different w...
by ray.james
Mon Nov 20, 2017 3:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 529 or not 529?
Replies: 21
Views: 1960

Re: 529 or not 529?

If I were in your shoes, I would execute slightly differently. There are student loans and FAFSA for kids. Whatever, I would max your 401k and roth ira like you are planning to do. I would not overpay for mortgage. Paying 1k is good long term but it will still take a lot of good years few years befo...
by ray.james
Fri Nov 17, 2017 8:48 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tesla truck unveil
Replies: 142
Views: 8865

Re: Tesla truck unnveil

As an engineer with some experience with commercial vehicles, I'd like to know his battery specs then. Doing an energy comparison with a 40% thermal efficiency diesel getting 6mpg, a 95% efficient electric truck would need a 1430 kWh battery. With the best lithium ion cells I know of in mass produc...
by ray.james
Fri Nov 17, 2017 8:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tesla truck unveil
Replies: 142
Views: 8865

Re: Tesla truck unnveil

As an engineer with some experience with commercial vehicles, I'd like to know his battery specs then. Doing an energy comparison with a 40% thermal efficiency diesel getting 6mpg, a 95% efficient electric truck would need a 1430 kWh battery. With the best lithium ion cells I know of in mass produc...
by ray.james
Fri Nov 17, 2017 8:28 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tesla truck unveil
Replies: 142
Views: 8865

Re: Tesla truck unnveil

Certainly not what I got from Btenny's post. Fact of the matter is, the numbers Musk threw around were so far removed from what is possible today that it makes it really difficult to take it seriously. Are you talking about the acceleration numbers or battery charging speed(electrek has an article ...
by ray.james
Fri Nov 17, 2017 7:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tesla truck unveil
Replies: 142
Views: 8865

Re: Tesla truck unnveil

This is a bet against Buffet on several levels: Walmart, Pilot, Railroads. Interesting. The infrastructure will need to built out for charging en masse at truck stops, and electricity rates could get interesting due to time of day charges. But I'll bet Tesla will also have a deal coming in the pipe...
by ray.james
Fri Nov 17, 2017 2:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tesla truck unveil
Replies: 142
Views: 8865

Re: Tesla truck unnveil

Walmart ordered 15 for testing in USA and Canada. Albertsons(+ subsidiary safeway) is considering testing it for city transportation. Pretty good day for Tesla. 30 minutes for 400 miles range. 0-60 in 20 seconds. Semi-Autonomous driving especially on freeways. Its impact is far beyond if one would a...
by ray.james
Wed Nov 15, 2017 5:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Sobering article for my 25 year old self
Replies: 57
Views: 6885

Re: Sobering article for my 25 year old self

Somewhat striking point of the article is, as savings rate rises lets say above 20%; 60/40 vs 100/0 as an allocation is pretty much a small blip over 10 year time period. That is a great point IMO to grasp. Second, during early retirement, sequence of return risk in the first decade plays a big role.
by ray.james
Fri Nov 10, 2017 4:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: $23k credit card emergency
Replies: 76
Views: 8355

Re: $23k credit card emergency

A few years older and have been through the process like you(you can look up my first posts on the forum), I have few thoughts. There are 3 ways I worked through it and I am happy I did it that way. 1) Reduce expenses: You can cut netflix etc all you want, but sharing with a roomate is the cheapest ...
by ray.james
Tue Nov 07, 2017 8:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where to invest home downpayment which I am not certain when to buy if ever?!
Replies: 62
Views: 3563

Re: Where to invest home downpayment which I am not certain when to buy if ever?!

To answer your question, I chose Vanguard limited term tax exempt. Total bond if tax rate is less than 25%(state + fed marginal.) If the term is 5 years plus, I would do a 20-30% stocks but that is just me. I can loose 10% of down payment and still be fine. I would scale down stocks, as I get closer...
by ray.james
Fri Nov 03, 2017 12:10 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Buying/Selling I-Bonds and taxes
Replies: 10
Views: 1318

Re: Buying/Selling I-Bonds and taxes

i am also interested in these questions. I found this link, that answers some of the questions. Any forum members that might chip in can help further. Anyone used I-bonds in to 529 exemptions? https://www.fastweb.com/financial-aid/articles/how-do-i-roll-over-us-savings-bonds-into-a-529-college-savin...
by ray.james
Wed Nov 01, 2017 2:17 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I'm fairly young but done with saving money
Replies: 75
Views: 9527

Re: I'm fairly young but done with saving money

I would just read calijim's post twice.

Life is full of uncertainties. I do not think you are there but you can slow the pace of saving.
by ray.james
Mon Oct 30, 2017 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Hit 2 comma milestone in portfolio thinking of increasing bonds drastically
Replies: 23
Views: 2674

Re: Hit 2 comma milestone in portfolio thinking of increasing bonds drastically

I think others have chimed in on the same opinion. I would probably move to 60/40 but will not reduce stocks more than that at 42. Consider this, how long will the bond portion sustain you and it will change the perspective on the risk. If that is greater than 10 years then let the stocks ride at 60...
by ray.james
Fri Oct 27, 2017 5:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 529 - Scholarship Withdrawal Timing
Replies: 8
Views: 745

Re: 529 - Scholarship Withdrawal Timing

If OP withdraws and contributes immediately to the same account, will it get a step up basis? That way will it solve the purpose that OP intends for future use? Yes, but the gains of the withdrawal are still subject to ordinary income tax. Seems counter-productive to me. Ahh I see, it is only penal...
by ray.james
Fri Oct 27, 2017 5:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 2018 ACA rates now live....
Replies: 228
Views: 14952

Re: 2018 ACA rates now live....

This thread has been very disheartening. For someone who plans on early retirement it is downright frightening to do so.
by ray.james
Fri Oct 27, 2017 5:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 529 - Scholarship Withdrawal Timing
Replies: 8
Views: 745

Re: 529 - Scholarship Withdrawal Timing

You have to take it in the year it applied. Since it will probably be applied for each semester it will actually be $5K, $10K, $10K, $10K and $5K Spirit rider an extended question, If OP withdraws and contributes immediately to the same account, will it get a step up basis? That way will it solve t...
by ray.james
Wed Oct 25, 2017 6:55 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: DMV Registration Fee in California
Replies: 8
Views: 990

Re: DMV Registration Fee in California

Probably 'transportation improvement fee.'
If the increase is 50 bucks, they probably valued the car at 5K- 15K range.

This reminded me to refuel my cars this weekend before the 20 cent hike kicks in on Nov 1st.
by ray.james
Wed Oct 25, 2017 12:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 2018 ACA rates now live....
Replies: 228
Views: 14952

Re: 2018 ACA rates now live....

mrsbetsy wrote:
Wed Oct 25, 2017 12:53 pm
You can find an interesting chart about the cost of healthcare going back as far as 1960 here:

https://www.thebalance.com/causes-of-ri ... ts-4064878

Betsy
That is very interesting data. When they say national spending it is public spending only or both public+private?
by ray.james
Wed Oct 25, 2017 12:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Annual gift tax exclusion raised to 15,000 in 2018
Replies: 3
Views: 848

Re: Annual gift tax exclusion raised to 15,000 in 2018

While not specifically identified, it was part of the information provided in this thread 2018 IRS tax information Thanks Spirit rider, I did not read entire details on the IRS page(tax changes) but saw it updated in the relevant section for gifts. I did not know these 2 will be announced together.
by ray.james
Tue Oct 24, 2017 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Annual gift tax exclusion raised to 15,000 in 2018
Replies: 3
Views: 848

Annual gift tax exclusion raised to 15,000 in 2018

IRS announced it early this week. Not sure if someone posted this before but did not see a thread on search. Annual gift tax exclusion raised to $15,000 from 2018. Per couple this would be $30,000 per donee. https://www.irs.gov/businesses/small-businesses-self-employed/frequently-asked-questions-on-...
by ray.james
Mon Oct 23, 2017 12:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 4184
Views: 1116358

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Also, I'm not certain, but won't Cape adjust down significantly when 2008 rolls off the books (10 year calc.) ? This is an interesting comment. Is that true? Please correct me if I am wrong but CAPE 10 is the current price divided by the earning over 10 years. When the market dropped the price to e...
by ray.james
Sat Oct 21, 2017 1:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller: the 1987 stock market panic can happen again
Replies: 29
Views: 2871

Re: Shiller: the 1987 stock market panic can happen again

circuit breakers?
Last I know they are at 7.5% and 10%.
by ray.james
Fri Oct 13, 2017 6:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [Social Security announces 2.0% benefit increase for 2018]
Replies: 26
Views: 3492

Re: [Social Security announces 2.0% benefit increase for 2018]

A lot smaller tax increase than 2016 ($118,500 max) to 2017 ($127,200 max). Boy did they jack it up last time. :x I believe it was the compounded effect for 2 years due to how it is structured. The law states that the taxable earnings cap cannot increase in years when there is no COLA. Since Social...
by ray.james
Thu Oct 05, 2017 12:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bay Area Real Estate
Replies: 154
Views: 15393

Re: Bay Area Real Estate

But look, SV may be a great place for a real-estate investment for years to come still. I don't know. SV still "offers deep funding and talent reservoirs that are largely unrivaled." But one more double in real-estate values will make SV housing cost 10x as much as the rest of the country. Another ...
by ray.james
Thu Oct 05, 2017 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Predicting the Next Recession: Ben Carlson
Replies: 3
Views: 695

Re: Predicting the Next Recession: Ben Carlson

I especially like his second table. 6 month prior returns, during recession and 12 months later returns.
Just all over the place!
by ray.james
Wed Oct 04, 2017 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: First time home buyer - gut check
Replies: 26
Views: 2371

Re: First time home buyer - gut check

Not sure how long you have been making 240K but putting 10% down seems to be on low end. It might due to maxing everything. Take a breather for couple of years to save up to 20%/payoff 10% loan early if you chose to buy. 10% of 500K is 50K which should be easy to do in 1- 1.5 year at that income lev...
by ray.james
Tue Sep 26, 2017 12:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bay Area Real Estate
Replies: 154
Views: 15393

Re: Bay Area Real Estate

I live in Bay area and we have contemplated this question quite a bit. We have enough down payment to buy in 800-900k range in east bay. However 3 factors weigh against it for us. 1) Commute is getting increasingly worse. Some areas across peninsula and east bay take 30 mins to get on the ramp. Give...
by ray.james
Mon Sep 25, 2017 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 4184
Views: 1116358

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

livesoft wrote:
Mon Sep 25, 2017 3:41 pm
At least one ETF that I own had an RBD today.

OTOH, US small cap value funds were up today and have done quite well in the past week.
Was that Emerging markets? :happy
by ray.james
Thu Sep 21, 2017 5:57 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: DC Bogleheads Meeting in Ballston with Sita Slavov
Replies: 24
Views: 2488

Re: DC Bogleheads Meeting in Ballston with Sita Slavov

Ray, I did not have slides. I used concepts from my thread "Beyond Equifax: Dealing with ID theft" https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=227487 and shared some other cyber security insights. I emphasized that one of the most valuable things to guard is one's email address , especiall...
by ray.james
Wed Sep 20, 2017 4:36 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: DC Bogleheads Meeting in Ballston with Sita Slavov
Replies: 24
Views: 2488

Re: DC Bogleheads Meeting in Ballston with Sita Slavov

... In the last twenty minutes of our meeting Victoria gave a presentation on how to stay safe online, in an age where security breaches to major financial institutions appear to occur on a monthly basis. I had asked Victoria if she would lead a discussion on the topic, instead Victoria made the ex...
by ray.james
Mon Sep 18, 2017 12:53 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Account security - Hackers gain access to mobile and then break havoc
Replies: 157
Views: 12527

Re: Account security - Hackers gain access to mobile and then break havoc

Thanks for more tips from several posters. When I made this thread, I thought this was a crazy hack that someone was able to do and the reimbursement of losses were unclear. The success of first 2 steps - Phone and email; depends on a lot of things. After that in several cases they can do a lot of d...
by ray.james
Fri Sep 15, 2017 7:36 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Account security - Hackers gain access to mobile and then break havoc
Replies: 157
Views: 12527

Re: Account security - Hackers gain access to mobile and then break havoc

They do not know my other account security questions unless that stuff is posted on the Facebook pages. Please advise. If that were the case, you are much more secure. Do note, they have access to emails and changed your email reset questions too in addition to mobileaccess. From emails they can ch...
by ray.james
Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:43 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Account security - Hackers gain access to mobile and then break havoc
Replies: 157
Views: 12527

Re: Account security - Hackers gain access to mobile and then break havoc

For services that allow TOTP (Time-Based One-Time Passcode), ALWAYS choose that option instead of SMS or email. They will show you a QR code one time, you take a picture of it using an authenticator app on your phone--there are tons of these, from Google, MS, etc--and from then forward your phone g...
by ray.james
Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Account security - Hackers gain access to mobile and then break havoc
Replies: 157
Views: 12527

Re: Account security - Hackers gain access to mobile and then break havoc

I think you are fooling yourself. Frankly, where I bank and where I invest they lock accounts when you don't know this stuff the first time around. As I have posted before, all accounts that deal with $$ have very long strong passwords which are in LastPass. LastPass has no mobile access allowed an...
by ray.james
Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:22 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Account security - Hackers gain access to mobile and then break havoc
Replies: 157
Views: 12527

Re: Account security - Hackers gain access to mobile and then break havoc

I posted about this in a few threads last week and each person responded like I was making it up and it wasn't an issue to them. Good luck. I saw your post in credit freeze thread. To me this sounds like something that can be executed much easier than bank hacking. Pretty scary. I am creating a new...
by ray.james
Thu Sep 14, 2017 2:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Account security - Hackers gain access to mobile and then break havoc
Replies: 157
Views: 12527

Account security - Hackers gain access to mobile and then break havoc

Found this on Reddit this morning. https://www.reddit.com/r/personalfinance/comments/7008lr/wifes_gmail_instagram_airbnb_venmo_paypal_and/ Hackers essentially gained access to the mobile number and then went on resetting every possible account. I think they might have a combination of birth day and ...
by ray.james
Tue Sep 12, 2017 2:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is it really Worth it to brown bag your lunch at work?
Replies: 313
Views: 19722

Re: Is it really Worth it to brown bag your lunch at work?

We go along hybrid route. Until few years ago I used to eat out almost 80% of meals. Now married and with a kid, we batch cook on weekend. That gets us to Wednesday. Baking, eating out, getting curry takeout and mix with veggie saute/rice at home gets us through rest of week in healthy cheap way. Ov...
by ray.james
Tue Sep 12, 2017 1:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What money to store outside for disaster?
Replies: 63
Views: 5274

Re: What money to store outside for disaster?

Raybo, I do not have an exact solution but a few thoughts. I am also based in SFO. I keep a few hundreds at home, couple hundred hidden in car. Water bottles in the car as well which we use and replenish. At home we use a water filter, so these bottles are part of disaster plan. I live in an apartme...
by ray.james
Wed Sep 06, 2017 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bought crypto currency
Replies: 67
Views: 4174

Re: Bought crypto currency

I think block chain as technology is here to stay. It has some advantages over the traditional ledger and is particularly applicable to some secure applications. Bitcoin/other to use as a currency is entirely different story. The whole idea seems to be on trust between the people using to exchange. ...
by ray.james
Fri Sep 01, 2017 12:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Demographic Headwinds for Stocks and Bonds?
Replies: 47
Views: 5380

Re: Demographic Headwinds for Stocks and Bonds?

Looking at Japan where consumption continues to decrease...one can only imagine its impact in china. The concept of 4 grandparents to 1 grandson/daughter is quite common now and the steps taken the government are too late. However this is also a transfer of multi generational wealth and will keep th...
by ray.james
Wed Aug 30, 2017 12:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: ICE, hybrid, Phev, electric for short trips
Replies: 36
Views: 2015

Re: ICE, hybrid, Phev, electric for short trips

For short trips, the electric only would be the clear winner. Less weight. Not hauling around an ICE engine. The ICE and similar are all to extend the range to be similar to non electric or hybrid cars. There are other aspects. Ride, comfort, handling in different types of weather. I couldn't get o...
by ray.james
Wed Aug 30, 2017 12:36 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: ICE, hybrid, Phev, electric for short trips
Replies: 36
Views: 2015

Re: ICE, hybrid, Phev, electric for short trips

Most people have to do the math because lots of websites with vested interests lie (Tesla's own site says I'd save $8 per 100 miles with an S....I did the math...I'd save 80 cents). Your use makes it pretty easy to go with a Leaf, especially because non-fanbois seem to hate the car, thus its value ...
by ray.james
Wed Aug 30, 2017 12:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: ICE, hybrid, Phev, electric for short trips
Replies: 36
Views: 2015

Re: ICE, hybrid, Phev, electric for short trips

I think the SV and SL always have a quick charge, but I don't recall exactly. Technically you don't need the quick charge for your use case (neither do I), but in the rare circumstance that you happen to be out with a low charge and can find a quick charge station it may be useful. Thanks Objective...
by ray.james
Tue Aug 29, 2017 4:13 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: ICE, hybrid, Phev, electric for short trips
Replies: 36
Views: 2015

Re: ICE, hybrid, Phev, electric for short trips

If you go for a SV or SL (instead of the S) you also get things like a quick charge port, heat pump, and other niceties. Does both SV and SL 2014/+ model always have quick port? How important is DC fast charging for this use case. I assume it gets charge once/twice per week. Edit: I will read more ...