Search found 519 matches

by Rose21
Thu Jan 13, 2011 7:56 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: TV series to recommend?
Replies: 139
Views: 19885

And of a significant sub-group of people who love to flaunt it.
by Rose21
Thu Oct 07, 2010 7:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there really such a thing as a Boglehead now?
Replies: 65
Views: 9345

When an unboglehead-like article by John Bogle was met with comments to the effect that the man must be getting senile, it certainly changed my view of what the board was all about.
by Rose21
Sun Sep 05, 2010 9:46 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: TV series to recommend?
Replies: 139
Views: 19885

Sorry, Rose, I don't subscribe to your conspiratorial theory.
I'm talking about bias, not conspiracies.
by Rose21
Sun Sep 05, 2010 8:26 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: TV series to recommend?
Replies: 139
Views: 19885

No, what I "really mean" is that this does not appear to be an isolated instance of choosing the wrong forum. When three of the "top five" posts have nothing at all to do with investing, and these are allowed to flourish while serious discussion of the investment implications of interest rate decisions is immediately shut down, you've got at least the appearance of some serious political bias in moderation.
by Rose21
Sun Sep 05, 2010 7:44 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: TV series to recommend?
Replies: 139
Views: 19885

I don't begrudge you that. Just wondering why those "fun little diversions" into things like interest rate decisions routinely get quashed. Are some diversions more dangerous than others?

BTW, I truly don't have a problem with moderation of any sort, so long as it is carried out honestly and in an evenhanded manner. If this board intends to exclude certain views based upon their philosophical or political implications, I think that should be stated up front. This is especially true when a board claims, in its headline, to be dispesing "investing advice."
by Rose21
Sun Sep 05, 2010 7:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What car is the best value in a used mid size car?
Replies: 47
Views: 7839

Again, I'd respectfully like to know why this post is sufficiently related to the topic of investing while those relating to the Fed's decision on interest rates is not. In fact, I notice that three of the "top five" posts at this moment have absolutely nothing to do with investing, and they, like the infamous "guitar" thread, are allowed to remain. (One of them, something akin to "How to Find a Good Man," was actually posted by a moderator of this forum before being locked by the OP as possibly inappropriate for this forum.) I don't have any axe to grind with Taylor (far from it), but it does seem as though anything goes on this forum so long as it is not indicting, even by implication, of current economic pol...
by Rose21
Sun Sep 05, 2010 7:01 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: TV series to recommend?
Replies: 139
Views: 19885

What, pray tell, does this have to do with investing?

Or is this, just like the "guitar" thread, intended to grind in the point that anything is on topic unless it could be viewed, even by implication, as an indictment of current economic policy?
by Rose21
Fri Aug 27, 2010 9:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How would you respond to market timers?
Replies: 31
Views: 4047

Hand out pamphlets. The supermarket is a good place to do this.
by Rose21
Fri Aug 27, 2010 8:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your thoughts about Peter Schiff's doomsday prediction
Replies: 39
Views: 9042

What I believe Schiff said is that the emerging markets would be more resilient and therefore quicker to rise from the ashes. So long as car alarms and iPhones measure the standard of living, I don't think it's fair to say that we're even come close to the event that Schiff was talking about. Time will tell, but he may well be vindicated in the longer term.
by Rose21
Wed Aug 11, 2010 7:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Bond market seems to be flashing deflation coming...
Replies: 36
Views: 4991

How is it even possible to have a discussion about the "news and theory" of investing without considering current economic policy? I'm truly dumbfounded.
by Rose21
Thu Jul 29, 2010 3:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fed president says US is close to Japan-style deflation
Replies: 19
Views: 3847

In Taleb's view, the black swan to watch for is a little different:
What are are potential sources of fragility or danger that you're keeping an eye on?

The massive one is government deficits. . . The problem is getting runaway. It's becoming a pure Ponzi scheme. It's very nonlinear: You need more and more debt just to stay where you are. And what broke [convicted financier Bernard] Madoff is going to break governments. They need to find new suckers all the time. And unfortunately the world has run out of suckers. . .

. . . Because governments can print more of their own currency, the risk comes from a rise in interest rates. . .
http://www.businessweek.com/investor/co ... 530571.htm
by Rose21
Tue Jul 27, 2010 8:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Low Rates Cutting into Bank Profits
Replies: 7
Views: 1428

Low Rates Cutting into Bank Profits

The Fed’s near-zero target rate for interbank overnight lending that has buoyed profits for so long will have an opposite effect in coming quarters, said Christopher Whalen, a Federal Reserve Bank of New York analyst in the 1980s and co- founder of Institutional Risk Analytics in Torrance, California.

“That’s the gift from the Fed,” Whalen said of the rate. “But at the same time, the cash flow on your assets eventually starts to re-price and match the low-rate environment. The zero- rate environment is eventually bad for everybody.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-2 ... organ.html
by Rose21
Sun Jul 25, 2010 7:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Scott Burns comments on low interest rates
Replies: 41
Views: 6955

When the big players can borrow money nearly interest-free, it doesn't take a high rate of return to give them a mighty attractive deal.
by Rose21
Sat Jul 24, 2010 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Scott Burns comments on low interest rates
Replies: 41
Views: 6955

I've never understood the term "quantitative easing." Or maybe I do. Is it just fancy bureauspeak for "cutting interest rates"? If it is, then I always prefer honest plain language and would rather they just said "cutting interest rates" instead of using the obfuscatory terminology If they said "printing money" it would be too obvious they were stealing money from anyone with wealth and giving it away to the people with debts and/or adjustable-rate mortgages (the main use of the new money is to depress long term treasury rates which are used as benchmarks for mortgages). Wikipedia has more for you. . Bingo. When money is created, and then used to buy up treasuries, you're going to keep long-term rate...
by Rose21
Sat Jul 24, 2010 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Updated Modification of Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 3555
Views: 1465628

Could I trouble someone to explain what is meant by the term "drawdown" in the context of this thread? Thanks in advance.
by Rose21
Fri Jul 23, 2010 7:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle: Repeat Financial Meltdown "Probable" Witho
Replies: 10
Views: 2880

Bogle: Repeat Financial Meltdown "Probable" Witho

The old notion of trusting and being trusted -- which once was not only the accepted standard of business conduct, but the key to success -- came to be seen as a quaint relic of an era long gone. Somehow, our society must be spurred into action to return to that standard.

Until it is, I fear that a repeat of our recent meltdown is not just possible, but probable. . .
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/john-c-bo ... 56043.html
by Rose21
Wed Jul 21, 2010 7:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold News
Replies: 4
Views: 999

This rule applies to transactions of any goods or services valued at more than $600. It will have far more impact on small business people than it will gold bugs: Since the $600 limit is cumulative, a 1099 will have to be issued to every vendor from which more than $600 in goods was purchased in a single year. I assume this means that one will have to collect a TIN every time a ream of paper is purchased from Office Depot of Staples. If the vendor refuses to provide a TIN, we are told that the remedy is to withhold a portion of the payment as taxes. (Imagine that.)
by Rose21
Fri Jul 16, 2010 7:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 Death Cross on July 6 - anybody following?
Replies: 77
Views: 14227

It was Thursday's sharp rise in TLT while the SPX ralled that got my attention. Those bond traders are smart boys.
by Rose21
Fri Jul 09, 2010 7:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First Long/Short ETF Hits The Market
Replies: 13
Views: 1626

How are you going to trade such a thing? I'm not sure I see what the ETF structure has to offer over a mutual fund such as BEARX, save the load. The expense ratio is right up there with the rest.
by Rose21
Tue Jun 29, 2010 5:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Memo to stock bugs - consider cash
Replies: 64
Views: 10992

LBill is one of the more prolific posters in the PP thread. His analyses (yes, analyses) are consistently thoughtful and well expressed.

Is it really necessary to villainize somebody every time the market dips?
by Rose21
Tue Jun 15, 2010 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HSA Bank/Ameritrade HSA Account Transaction Fees Reduced
Replies: 1
Views: 1048

HSA Bank/Ameritrade HSA Account Transaction Fees Reduced

Per a notice received from Ameritrade today, Ameritrade has just reduced its fees to $9.99 per trade (from $20.00 per trade) on HSA accounts maintained with HSA Bank.
by Rose21
Mon Jun 07, 2010 7:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emergency Closed-Door Meeting of the Fed Tomorrow
Replies: 25
Views: 4696

Matt, yes, it is my interpetation that this is an "emergency" meeting. The words "on expidited procedures" doesn't make for a compact title. BFD.

The point is this: This is news, not a freaking conspiracy to topple the collective belief system of this board. The meeting provides plenty of opportunity for substantive discussion in light of last weeks' market action, and instead the secondary source and title get picked apart like this were some kind of peer review exercise.

That's my last comment about it.
by Rose21
Sun Jun 06, 2010 10:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emergency Closed-Door Meeting of the Fed Tomorrow
Replies: 25
Views: 4696

Why does it surprise me that you all had to find something about the post to attack? If you have a problem with the source, wake your graduate student up to find you another one.
by Rose21
Sun Jun 06, 2010 9:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emergency Closed-Door Meeting of the Fed Tomorrow
Replies: 25
Views: 4696

The Nikkei is down 4 percent.
by Rose21
Sun Jun 06, 2010 9:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emergency Closed-Door Meeting of the Fed Tomorrow
Replies: 25
Views: 4696

Emergency Closed-Door Meeting of the Fed Tomorrow

It is anticipated that the closed meeting of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System at 11:30 a.m. on Monday, June 7, 2010, will be held under expedited procedures, as set forth in section 26lb.7 of the Board's Rules Regarding Public Observation of Meetings, at the Board's offices at 20th Street and C Streets, N.W., Washington, D.C. The following items of official Board business are tentatively scheduled to be considered at that meeting. Meeting date: June 7, 2010 Matters to be Considered: 1. Review and determination by the Board of Governors of the advance and discount rates to be charged by Federal Reserve Banks. A final announcement of matters considered under expedited procedures will be available in the Board's Freedom of...
by Rose21
Tue May 25, 2010 9:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You can loan money with an 85% interest rate?
Replies: 14
Views: 3012

The legalities vary from state to state, but usury laws generally distinguish between personal/consumer loans and loans made for business purposes. Some states also exempt post-default interest from their usury restrictions.
by Rose21
Thu May 06, 2010 5:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WOW - The Dow is Crashing - down 900 points so far today!
Replies: 222
Views: 32262

I put in a whole bunch of market orders just shortly before the bottom (through Ameritrade), and only one of them executed. I watched the prices rise by 2-3-4 percent while my orders just sat there.
by Rose21
Wed May 05, 2010 10:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Updated Modification of Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 3555
Views: 1465628

Deleted

Strike that question-- I was having a senior moment.
by Rose21
Mon Apr 12, 2010 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Updated Modification of Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 3555
Views: 1465628

The point of the PP (and this is the forest we should be focusing on and not the tree of t-bond yields) is that it doesn't require us to guess correctly about what any one asset is going to do.
From my perspective, I'm not so concerned about the performance of one asset class (I realize that's part of the deal), but rather the possibility that something has gone so fundamentally wrong with the bond market that the correlations upon which the PP depends have become unreliable.
by Rose21
Sun Apr 11, 2010 2:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Updated Modification of Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 3555
Views: 1465628

You guys have the patience of saints with us Doubting Thomases. Thank you for that.
by Rose21
Sun Apr 11, 2010 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Updated Modification of Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 3555
Views: 1465628

Even if one cannot predict where yields were be at the end of the year, can't we agree that over the longer term, the risk in bonds is clearly to the downside? Assuming that to be true, why would it not be prudent to underweight bonds at this time?
by Rose21
Sun Apr 11, 2010 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Updated Modification of Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 3555
Views: 1465628

Lbill, you have expressed very articulately many of my nagging fears about a simultaneous contraction in stocks, bonds, and gold, and about the arguably precarious condition of the treasury bond market, in particular. I hope you keep asking the hard questions.
by Rose21
Mon Apr 05, 2010 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 year treasury yield might hit 4% today..
Replies: 15
Views: 4150

TNX 40.
by Rose21
Sun Apr 04, 2010 8:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wine as an Alternative Investment
Replies: 35
Views: 5223

Sounds like the bourgeois equivalent of stockpiling tobacco and tampons. Given the choice, I think I'd bet on the latter. . .
by Rose21
Fri Apr 02, 2010 2:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Updated Modification of Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 3555
Views: 1465628

MT, in case nobody's thought to thank you for your incredibly thorough and thoughtful posts, I'd like to do so now. I continue to learn a lot from your contributions.
by Rose21
Thu Apr 01, 2010 9:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Updated Modification of Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 3555
Views: 1465628

LBill, word is spreading this evening that an emergency meeting of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors has been called for Monday at 11:30. Subject: Advance & discount rates. Just found a link:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs ... cedexp.htm
by Rose21
Thu Apr 01, 2010 9:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is income?
Replies: 16
Views: 3566

The above less (1) the cost of producing the income, and (2) the portion of the "income" that represents no real gain, but rather the effect of a depreciating currency.
by Rose21
Wed Mar 31, 2010 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Updated Modification of Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 3555
Views: 1465628

Thanks, Paul!
by Rose21
Wed Mar 31, 2010 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Updated Modification of Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 3555
Views: 1465628

I've been wondering how the data might look if Wellesley (VWINX) or Wellington (VWELX) was substituted in for the stock and bond components. The idea would be to create an alternative one-stop alternative to PRPFX for those of us who can't stand looking at the individual stock and bond pieces. (I have no problem with PRPFX; just feel uneasy putting all of my eggs in that one basket.) I was thinking of using this together with CEF.

Would anyone who knows how to do this be willing to run the numbers?
by Rose21
Wed Mar 31, 2010 1:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: government bonds--‘Canary in coal mine’ just died
Replies: 21
Views: 4673

I, also, thought the author was referring to credit default swaps, since a number of articles were out earlier this week reporting that CDSs on treasury debt had become more costly than those on some high-quality corporate obligations. The same articles were saying that corporations are also borrowing at better rates. . . I'll see if I can find some of them.
by Rose21
Mon Mar 22, 2010 8:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Healthcare for college students
Replies: 18
Views: 3325

What leads you (your accountant) to conclude that HSAs will even be an option? I'm not challenging you, only curious whether you know something about the bill that I do not. It's been my impression that high-deductible, catastrophic-type plans are exactly the kind of plan that the legislation intends to prevent us from having. Am I missing something?
by Rose21
Thu Mar 18, 2010 10:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Updated Modification of Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 3555
Views: 1465628

My apologies if this question has been asked before, but when the PP is used in retirement, how did HB envision that distributions would be taken? Did HB envision that all asset classes would be drawn down equallly, and that the remainder would be rebalanced on an annual basis? Or would draw-downs be used to effectuate rebalancing--i.e., by drawing selelctively from the best performing asset class(es)?
by Rose21
Sun Mar 14, 2010 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Updated Modification of Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 3555
Views: 1465628

Thanks, MT. Very helpful comments.
by Rose21
Sun Mar 14, 2010 8:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Updated Modification of Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 3555
Views: 1465628

"Shorting U.S. Treasuries, a Historic Sucker Bet" http://www.zerohedge.com/article/shorting-us-treasuries-historic-sucker-bet Here is an interesting bull case for Treasury bonds... This article seems to suggest that long-term treasuries are a good short-term contrarian play before the bottom drops out. While cognizant of the pitfall of thinking "it's different this time," I continue to search for an explanation for how long-term treasuries can possibly carry out their designated function in the portfolio over the long-term given the mathematical impossibility of servicing the national debt in future years without facto devaluation of the dollar. I continue to ask myself whether the assumptions with which Harry Browne wa...
by Rose21
Fri Feb 19, 2010 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 401k lifetime Annuity Options?
Replies: 14
Views: 3776

Count me among the skeptical inasmuch as the last government-sponsored annuity worked so well. Adding a questionably solvent counterparty to the mix is not something that should make anyone feel more secure.

This topic cannot, IMHO, be discussed in any meaningful way without getting into the political motivations of such a bill. 'Nuff said.
by Rose21
Fri Feb 19, 2010 7:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fed Raises Discount Rate to .75%
Replies: 22
Views: 5278

If the last several months' rally in stocks can be attributed to the nearly unlimited influx of "free" money into the market (as I think is a reasonable assumption), a signal that the Fed intends to begin tightening would be expected to cause exactly the short-term result we are seeing: a drop in equity prices and a flight to bonds.

My working thesis is that the Fed has one heck of a dilemma on its hands; it can either raise rates in a genuine attempt to stir interest in treasuries or it can scare investors into bonds through signals that its support for the stock market is about to be removed. Of these two options, only one is viable.
by Rose21
Thu Feb 18, 2010 5:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fed Raises Discount Rate to .75%
Replies: 22
Views: 5278

It means a great deal for the banks who are levered up to their eyeballs with fed money.
by Rose21
Thu Feb 18, 2010 4:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fed Raises Discount Rate to .75%
Replies: 22
Views: 5278

tlm, you can take a look for yourself at the 10 and 30-year futures: http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ALL&p=m5
by Rose21
Thu Feb 18, 2010 4:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fed Raises Discount Rate to .75%
Replies: 22
Views: 5278

Commentary by Zerohedge, including full Fed press release: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/fed-be ... lar-surges
by Rose21
Thu Feb 18, 2010 4:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fed Raises Discount Rate to .75%
Replies: 22
Views: 5278

Fed Raises Discount Rate to .75%

The Federal Reserve Board raised the discount rate charged to banks for direct loans by a quarter point to 0.75 percent and said the move will encourage financial institutions to rely more on money markets rather than the central bank for short-term liquidity needs. “These changes are intended as a further normalization of the Federal Reserve’s lending facilities,” the central bank said today in a statement. “The modifications are not expected to lead to tighter financial conditions for households and businesses and do not signal any change in the outlook for the economy or for monetary policy.” The dollar jumped and Treasuries extended losses as the Fed took another step in a gradual retreat from its unprecedented actions to halt the deep...