Search found 146 matches

by Trader007
Sat Dec 17, 2011 8:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7429
Views: 1556093

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Stock indices should continue down for several months now. Looks like end of February-end of March. Will be more specific later.
by Trader007
Mon Sep 05, 2011 10:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Feedback on this doomsday blog entry?
Replies: 7
Views: 1616

Debt, oil, demography.. It´s a catch 22. Oil spikes as soon as we try to grow. But i just see a perfect wave since 1932 in Dow. 2012 cycles.. Suppose it goes beyond the physical world though. If they can chose they pick deflation over hyper inflation so i wonder if gold is good long term..hmm. I gue...
by Trader007
Mon Sep 05, 2011 6:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anything actionable in neuroeconomics?
Replies: 37
Views: 3371

If the 5 wave pattern is real could it mean something in terms of Neuroscience?

http://i54.tinypic.com/iyil4n.jpg
by Trader007
Sat Aug 27, 2011 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Common Boglehead arguments that are not very convincing
Replies: 124
Views: 13830

Asset categories actually have a pretty stable long term historical return. Past performance does not predict future results, but if you live long enough, the market will generate the long term historical "market return." No the stock market goes towards zero long term. The sun has been stable for ...
by Trader007
Sat Aug 27, 2011 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Big recession due to hit Western markets
Replies: 32
Views: 5837

http://blogs.ft.com/gavyndavies/2011/08/18/what-went-wrong-with-the-global-recovery/#axzz1VOZmybBX "One model, estimated by James Hamilton at the University of California in San Diego (who is probably the leading academic economist in this field), suggests that the oil shock may have reduced US real...
by Trader007
Fri Aug 26, 2011 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Big recession due to hit Western markets
Replies: 32
Views: 5837

innovative people will provide innovative solutions to these and other problems. these are all easily addressed. It took a few millions of years to produce the oil so i would not sit and wait for those innovative people to save the current system. The financial markets does not have alot of patienc...
by Trader007
Fri Aug 26, 2011 9:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Big recession due to hit Western markets
Replies: 32
Views: 5837

2. Oil reserves running out => productivity plummets No evidence of that, if anything oil production will decline as nat gas is a cheaper and cleaner fuel. Few things can be predicted, but oil reserves running out is a fact. Read any respectable publication on this and you will find the same agreem...
by Trader007
Wed Aug 24, 2011 6:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy and Hold is a relic of a bygone era....
Replies: 9
Views: 1602

He talks like a successful trader. Of course it´s pointless if everyone would try to time/risk manage anyway since most people has to lose for the market to move. But i would not bet on higher highs over the next decades if ever.
by Trader007
Mon Aug 22, 2011 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How many people here believe we going to have a double deep
Replies: 45
Views: 6412

Trouble in BAC?
by Trader007
Mon Aug 22, 2011 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: anybody calling Peak in Gold?
Replies: 74
Views: 8507

Within a few days a larger top
by Trader007
Sun Aug 21, 2011 4:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For the funds that actually do beat the market
Replies: 28
Views: 3712

Re: For the funds that actually do beat the market

It is wrong to expect greater long term returns from stocks than bonds. See Japan. I disagree. Japan is the outlier, not the norm. Investors should in general be compensated for taking greater risk. Stocks have more risk than bonds. Stocks don't always return more than bonds but over a very long ti...
by Trader007
Sat Aug 20, 2011 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help for a friend retiring at 65 after a huge 50+ loss in 08
Replies: 29
Views: 5135

He should avoid stocks long term from here. I assume there is also a risk of default with bonds but i´m not sure what it looks like.
by Trader007
Fri Aug 19, 2011 1:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Treasuries a bubble?
Replies: 24
Views: 3006

You don´t calculate in the risk for default?
by Trader007
Thu Aug 18, 2011 9:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Buy&Hold a Flawed Concept?
Replies: 16
Views: 2341

You don´t see the exponential function as a problem?

Image
by Trader007
Thu Aug 18, 2011 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7429
Views: 1556093

Bad numbers today. High inflation as well so Fed can´t do much if they ever could.
Focus on the butterfly..
by Trader007
Thu Aug 18, 2011 4:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tell me why you don't like this form of market timing
Replies: 29
Views: 2907

Those big up days are most likely after big down moves. It would have been better to avoid those. Sure... it'd be good to avoid the big down days, just like it'd be good to be in for the big up days. But how do you know when a big down day is coming? If one comes, how long do you stay out of the ma...
by Trader007
Thu Aug 18, 2011 1:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tell me why you don't like this form of market timing
Replies: 29
Views: 2907

Those big up days are most likely after big down moves. It would have been better to avoid those. Sure... it'd be good to avoid the big down days, just like it'd be good to be in for the big up days. But how do you know when a big down day is coming? If one comes, how long do you stay out of the ma...
by Trader007
Thu Aug 18, 2011 12:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tell me why you don't like this form of market timing
Replies: 29
Views: 2907

As agreed above: 1. How much money can you be talking about if your starting to invest? 2. While you are waiting to invest at a market dip (presumably to maximize the value of the equity down the road in appreciation) the rest of your new money is just sitting there collecting dust. You likely woul...
by Trader007
Wed Aug 17, 2011 11:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tell me why you don't like this form of market timing
Replies: 29
Views: 2907

Better to sell 20% earlier and buy when it´s 20/30% down.
by Trader007
Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Came into money and would like to invest it smartly...ideas?
Replies: 21
Views: 3464

As long as the interest on the loans can not rise.
Hard to predict what will happen with all debt in society but i would guess that alot will have to be cancelled.
by Trader007
Mon Aug 15, 2011 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Real Solution is Growth"
Replies: 47
Views: 4711

by Trader007
Mon Aug 15, 2011 7:10 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need a savings / investment plan
Replies: 25
Views: 3665

Re: Need a savings / investment plan

Stocks will decline for a long time. Default risk in long bonds. Money can be made investing or trading in inverse etf´s though. At some point, this really has to be considered trolling... Just telling it like it is. No certainty of course but very likely. Trader007, Someone else just wrote: " Stoc...
by Trader007
Mon Aug 15, 2011 7:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is gold not a bubble - yet
Replies: 138
Views: 13996

As long as their is fear in the market Gold might continue up. But i doubt that will go on for long. With controlled deflation Gold will fall alot.
by Trader007
Mon Aug 15, 2011 6:25 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need a savings / investment plan
Replies: 25
Views: 3665

empb wrote:
Trader007 wrote:Stocks will decline for a long time. Default risk in long bonds.
Money can be made investing or trading in inverse etf´s though.
At some point, this really has to be considered trolling...
Just telling it like it is. No certainty of course but very likely.
by Trader007
Mon Aug 15, 2011 5:10 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need a savings / investment plan
Replies: 25
Views: 3665

Stocks will decline for a long time. Default risk in long bonds.
Money can be made investing or trading in inverse etf´s though.
by Trader007
Sun Aug 14, 2011 12:05 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do I "need" equities?
Replies: 21
Views: 3912

What was the inflation during the seventies? Stocks went sideways for 16 years. Probably better with some commodities then.
by Trader007
Sat Aug 13, 2011 11:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Hussman predicts bleak returns for S&P 500 next 10
Replies: 29
Views: 3935

Recession: We Are Hitting an Economic Growth Ceiling Caused by Limited Cheap Oil
http://www.financialsense.com/contribut ... -cheap-oil
by Trader007
Sat Aug 13, 2011 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This Time Could be Worse
Replies: 36
Views: 3407

I'd like to add, I am a positive investor and believe in creativity and superiority of economy in US more than in any other country in the world and standing with this conviction. . I´m a positive investor in inverse etf´s :D If there were some decoupling going on then the EM indices would not foll...
by Trader007
Sat Aug 13, 2011 8:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Real Solution is Growth"
Replies: 47
Views: 4711

The author should look up "Peak oil".
by Trader007
Fri Aug 12, 2011 7:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This time its different
Replies: 21
Views: 3146

What is the shadow banking leverage today? Larger than 08?
When the only hold 1/50 or whatever it is in actual cash it´s understandable that it does not take much to cause doubts between them.
by Trader007
Fri Aug 12, 2011 2:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Great Time to Read Misbehavior of Markets by Maldebrot
Replies: 24
Views: 3104

That is the approach Elliott wave theory takes i think. Waves within waves. Waves are said to have a Fibonacci ratio to each other. Can´t see that it always works though or perhaps it just about measuring from the right starting point. It´s been proven by some scientists that human psychological beh...
by Trader007
Fri Aug 12, 2011 1:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Feel like we've seen the bottom? Buy GM?
Replies: 26
Views: 2658

It´s not THE bottom for sure.
by Trader007
Thu Aug 11, 2011 12:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy and Hold is flawed in the New Normal
Replies: 64
Views: 9929

How dare you. Gravity is just a myth.


Image
by Trader007
Thu Aug 11, 2011 12:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the "Global Growth Story" Actually Imperiled?
Replies: 18
Views: 2165

A lot of innovation, technology advances, and new markets can and do develop over long periods such as these. It just takes one major energy innovation to cause the rate of productivity to skyrocket. Look at the advances being made today in quantum physics and string theory, nanotech, biotech etc. ...
by Trader007
Wed Aug 10, 2011 11:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What will be the low for S&P 500?
Replies: 24
Views: 3118

awval999 wrote:
natureexplorer wrote:100
I assume this is snark, if the S&P500 index goes to 100 we will have many more problems in this world than Bogleheads message boards. We would be approaching anarchy in the streets.
We were there in the seventies and early eighties.
by Trader007
Wed Aug 10, 2011 8:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What will be the low for S&P 500?
Replies: 24
Views: 3118

Well that huge hs formation since 2000 i think target 350 something. Another one based on market psychology is around 400. The cycles lining up in 2016 point to 300.
by Trader007
Wed Aug 10, 2011 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Timing Correctly But Not
Replies: 8
Views: 1766

There are prop firms with real traders who can. But it´s not so much about timing the market as it is about handling risk. Trying to get in at a place where you know risk is small and where the market could potentially let you ride your profit. And when you trade intraday for months or years you get...
by Trader007
Wed Aug 10, 2011 3:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: sell my long term bond holding now ?
Replies: 7
Views: 1253

I think it´s just a question of when the deafult fear spreads to US.
10 year rate is at important support.
by Trader007
Wed Aug 10, 2011 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Already Down 435 points today
Replies: 72
Views: 8269

Well among other things the rate of extraction varies with the price of oil, as does investment in alternative energy and demand for oil and all of which in turn influence the price which influence each of them... The financial system certainly does not wait for us to figure it out - which is a goo...
by Trader007
Wed Aug 10, 2011 2:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Already Down 435 points today
Replies: 72
Views: 8269

These magical factors include high sensitivity to initial conditions, feedback loops, and multiple evolutionary pathways among others. This 'academic BS' is the basis of much practical tools that you use so you may want to pay more attention to it - particularly if you are putting your money on the...
by Trader007
Wed Aug 10, 2011 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Already Down 435 points today
Replies: 72
Views: 8269

We don't have the facts. They keep finding new oil fields all the time. That's why all those old predictions were wrong. Tomorrow they could find another huge oil field in the Siberian artic sea, and all that money you bet based on a prediction could be lost. They could but rate of discovery have b...
by Trader007
Wed Aug 10, 2011 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Already Down 435 points today
Replies: 72
Views: 8269

Of course they are predictable if you have the facts. That was a reasonable stance in the 19th century, these days not so much. We have discovered more facts since then and it turns that of course, many things including the course of human events are not predictable at all. What are these magical f...
by Trader007
Wed Aug 10, 2011 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Already Down 435 points today
Replies: 72
Views: 8269

Re: Market Already Down 435 points today

Actually, if you look at it I think you will find crowd behavior quite less than predictable and even if the general statement is true that when there is a fire people will run for the exit (though we know it to be not universally true as some look for other to save at the very least) the more spec...
by Trader007
Wed Aug 10, 2011 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Already Down 435 points today
Replies: 72
Views: 8269

- Energy - yes. Oil - not necessarily. There are other potential sources of energy that can be used. - Debt. Why can't we just right it off? Nobody talks about it, but that $2trillion owed to FEDs are really the money that Treasury owes to the printing machine. .... Anyway, I am not much into consp...
by Trader007
Wed Aug 10, 2011 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Already Down 435 points today
Replies: 72
Views: 8269

The global economy is dependent on increasing amounts of oil. You don´t need chaos theory to predict when production peaks either. http://www.afterpeakoil.com/poster2.gif People have predicted peak oil at least 20 times before this, and all were wrong. You're seriously deluding yourself if you thin...
by Trader007
Wed Aug 10, 2011 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Already Down 435 points today
Replies: 72
Views: 8269

To predict growth in the world economy we just at least at this stage need to know debt and energy. New debt is necessary to pay of old debt. If there is to much debt then more will just decrease GDP. Like today when we probably have reached debt saturation. The global economy is dependent on increa...
by Trader007
Wed Aug 10, 2011 11:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Already Down 435 points today
Replies: 72
Views: 8269

Re: Market Already Down 435 points today

What makes you think it is inherently possible - some things cannot be predicted at all. It turns out that much in this world aren't simple mechanical entities that, if only we had more knowledge, has some deterministic path. Basically from what i see in charts. It would be difficult to predict if ...
by Trader007
Wed Aug 10, 2011 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Already Down 435 points today
Replies: 72
Views: 8269

Re: Market Already Down 435 points today

I'm going to nit-pick here, but I can assure you that HFT does not involve using Google searches. HFT works at the micro-second level, which is not the time-frame that using Google search analysis. However, a longer-term analysis fund might use Google searches to create a signal. For years I've fel...
by Trader007
Wed Aug 10, 2011 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Already Down 435 points today
Replies: 72
Views: 8269

Re: Market Already Down 435 points today

You should count your lucky stars you've found this forum. Unfortunately, nothing seems to be sinking in! Perhaps try something off the reading list. Have been doing this for many years and i have realized that you ultimately cant´t learn much from books. Try teaching a kid how to ride a bike that ...