Search found 33458 matches

by nisiprius
Mon Nov 20, 2017 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is holding bonds now dangerous?
Replies: 106
Views: 6606

Re: Is holding bonds now dangerous?

2008 was a real shock. The idea that stocks might not recover , because there would not be a financial system for them to recover into. Yes. The difference between a 25% drop and a 50% drop isn't a factor of two. It's the difference between an oncoming truck in the other lane crossing the center li...
by nisiprius
Mon Nov 20, 2017 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is holding bonds now dangerous?
Replies: 106
Views: 6606

Re: Is holding bonds now dangerous?

I can't really argue that 10% bonds does much good. However, I have in the past noticed more than one post by people who opted for 100% stocks and are still at 100% stocks five years before retirement, and not quite sure what to do, because they feel that it is time to have a bond allocation, but al...
by nisiprius
Mon Nov 20, 2017 12:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New car buyers...you should consider financing
Replies: 17
Views: 798

Re: New car buyers...you should consider financing

I'm a "pay with cash, hate any debt" guy. Stop right there. That said, I took a new car loan at 5.9%. Oops. Skimming over your story. Obviously neither the dealer nor anybody else expects you to take out a loan and pay it back the next day--or makes money when you do. So my impression is that you p...
by nisiprius
Mon Nov 20, 2017 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is holding bonds now dangerous?
Replies: 106
Views: 6606

Re: Is holding bonds now dangerous?

(Incomplete post deleted by poster)
by nisiprius
Mon Nov 20, 2017 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is holding bonds now dangerous?
Replies: 106
Views: 6606

Re: Is holding bonds now dangerous?

So the question is, are these two examples of a "bond market crash?"My answer is "no." Excuse me? Try to tell that to retirees in those time periods who had their purchasing power totally devastated for decades (including my own grandfather, by the way)... Let me try one last time. I still haven't ...
by nisiprius
Mon Nov 20, 2017 8:01 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Credit card protection vs. PayPal ?
Replies: 7
Views: 443

Re: Credit card protection vs. PayPal ?

Wait, I do have a "bad PayPal customer" story, but at second and across a language barrier. Also, during the event, I did call PayPal customer service, and they did answer the phone and all, but said (as I expected) that I couldn't do anything from my end, because I wasn't the customer having the pr...
by nisiprius
Mon Nov 20, 2017 7:50 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Credit card protection vs. PayPal ?
Replies: 7
Views: 443

Re: Credit card protection vs. PayPal ?

I avoid PayPal due to bad stories, but have never had a dispute that needed to be resolved by PayPal so can't speak to this from personal experience. I have a PayPal account with $0.00 in it (because I sometimes use it for eBay purchases) but whenever an online purchase shows a PayPal versus credit ...
by nisiprius
Mon Nov 20, 2017 7:39 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Uber for someone who knows only taxis
Replies: 38
Views: 1454

Uber for someone who knows only taxis

I'm thinking that I probably need to sign up for and "learn how to use" Uber, as one more available transportation option. I've literally never used it before nor have I ever shared a ride with anyone using it. I'd like those who have used it to compare it, as best they can, to the experience of usi...
by nisiprius
Sun Nov 19, 2017 7:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Are expensive tires worth it?
Replies: 42
Views: 2287

Re: Are expensive tires worth it?

It depends on the reason why they are expensive. One reason for tires being expensive is that they are intended to resist the heat that builds up from driving 124 mph for long periods of time. If you drive 124 mph for long periods of time then, yes, you should pay for a tire with the appropriate spe...
by nisiprius
Sun Nov 19, 2017 12:29 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Electric Car (Nissan Leaf) for a teen driver?
Replies: 21
Views: 1434

Re: Electric Car (Nissan Leaf) for a teen driver?

The battery in Leaf's changed about March of 2013 and the batteries after that date have proven to be significantly better. The date of manufacture is on the door. A late 2013 is a safe bet and there are lots of them off lease. If you want to get fancy, you can buy an app called LeafSpy Pro and a l...
by nisiprius
Sun Nov 19, 2017 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying and Spending Bitcoin
Replies: 53
Views: 4044

Re: Buying and Spending Bitcoin

So can we agree that, based on news accounts and on greyfox's experience, that, as of November 2017, 1) bitcoin is not a practical medium for ordinary consumers to use in everyday transactions with most well-known national retailers? bitcoin transactions are still a novelty and a hobby for early ado...
by nisiprius
Sun Nov 19, 2017 8:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The valet smashed my Tesla into a brick wall!
Replies: 94
Views: 8191

Re: The valet smashed my Tesla into a brick wall!

Although this may sound grotesque to ask... was the valet OK? If so, at least you have a real-world test of Tesla's crash safety.
by nisiprius
Sun Nov 19, 2017 8:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is holding bonds now dangerous?
Replies: 106
Views: 6606

Re: Is holding bonds now dangerous?

...The "danger" of bonds is not a negative nominal return but negative real returns, particularly over long periods... Yes, but I've never known how to get around this particular change of subject. The usual talk about bond "danger" starts by saying that there is a bubble in bonds, that interest ra...
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 18, 2017 9:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is holding bonds now dangerous?
Replies: 106
Views: 6606

Re: Is holding bonds now dangerous?

...The "danger" of bonds is not a negative nominal return but negative real returns, particularly over long periods... Yes, but I've never known how to get around this particular change of subject. The usual talk about bond "danger" starts by saying that there is a bubble in bonds, that interest ra...
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 18, 2017 8:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying and Spending Bitcoin
Replies: 53
Views: 4044

Re: Buying and Spending Bitcoin

...Somewhat officially, Bitcoin is now for "storing value", not for performing transactions... Which is a significant abandonment and retraction of claims formerly made for it, "somewhat officially." It is also a significant devaluing of its usefulness, because it isn't very good as a store of valu...
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 18, 2017 4:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ commentary about declining # of publicly traded companies
Replies: 32
Views: 2475

Re: WSJ commentary about declining # of publicly traded companies

"The stock market today isn’t the stock market of 20 years ago." And when, exactly, in the past, has it ever been different? The stock market of 1977 wasn't the stock market of 1997, either. Furthermore, since his next words are "Investors, take heed," it is clear from that and the rest of the artic...
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 18, 2017 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying and Spending Bitcoin
Replies: 53
Views: 4044

Re: Buying and Spending Bitcoin

Fascinating discussion, but my understanding is that in the US the IRS considers bitcoin to be an asset not a currency. So, when you buy bitcoin you acquire an asset and must record the cost in US dollars. When you then buy something, say a sandwich at Subway, you are selling the asset and must rec...
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 18, 2017 4:16 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Electric Car (Nissan Leaf) for a teen driver?
Replies: 21
Views: 1434

Re: Electric Car (Nissan Leaf) for a teen driver?

Sounds OK to me. Yeah, I see the safety report. Kinda have to balance that against other concerns, it doesn't seem like a complete dealbreaker to me. Have you discussed this with her? Does she like the idea or dislike it? I assume she'll have a cell phone and can call you if she gets stranded. The m...
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 18, 2017 2:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar - AQR: The Vanguard of Alternative Investing?
Replies: 46
Views: 2825

Re: Morningstar - AQR: The Vanguard of Alternative Investing?

Thank you, lack_ey. I always learn from your posts (or I hope I do, sometimes I'm a slow learner). ...Something that Rekenthaler didn't talk about, and I think he should have, is that most of Vanguard's funds are long-only portfolios. They are just bundles of securities. I think the same is true of ...
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 18, 2017 2:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do you include the sale of your home as part of your retirement planning?
Replies: 75
Views: 3176

Re: Do you include the sale of your home as part of your retirement planning?

...Somehow, the cost of providing place to live needs to be accounted for... Indeed. And the economics of staying in a paid-for house ain't bad. Staying in the same community and downsizing--moving from a two-story house to a one-story house and building a ramp, say--doesn't generate any giant wind...
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 18, 2017 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar - AQR: The Vanguard of Alternative Investing?
Replies: 46
Views: 2825

Re: Morningstar - AQR: The Vanguard of Alternative Investing?

Yep, Vanguard has very little to offer someone who wants "alternatives." If I wanted "alternatives" I'd be looking outside Vanguard. However, I don't want them. I think the chief argument for "alternatives" is: Unless something is different from traditional securities (stocks and bonds), it can't be...
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 18, 2017 12:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is holding bonds now dangerous?
Replies: 106
Views: 6606

Re: Is holding bonds now dangerous?

...The relationship between yield and bonds is pretty straightforward, this isn't something that I made up, it is taught in freshman finance and is the basis of fixed income markets worldwide. Surprised this is a topic of discussion. Sure over periods of a year or two anything can happen, especiall...
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 18, 2017 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is holding bonds now dangerous?
Replies: 106
Views: 6606

Re: Is holding bonds now dangerous?

Let me state this very precisely. For me, "holding bonds" means holding a "core" bond fund--meaning a diversified fund that holds only investment-grade bonds, and no longer than intermediate-term on average. Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund is an example of such a fund; there are many others. F...
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 18, 2017 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do you include the sale of your home as part of your retirement planning?
Replies: 75
Views: 3176

Re: Do you include the sale of your home as part of your retirement planning?

We did not--not in any concrete, estimated dollar value in a spreadsheet, for two reasons. 1) It's an undiversified investment whose future sales value could not be accurately estimated and could not be counted on. 2) We have a small house and half-planned half-hoped to stay in it in retirement. Whi...
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 18, 2017 7:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Monte Carlo Analysis VS Historical Rolling Periods
Replies: 24
Views: 1341

Re: Monte Carlo Analysis VS Historical Rolling Periods

There are serious problems with everything. The problem with non-overlapping historical periods is that the sample size is too small; there have only been 91 years or three non-overlapping 30-year periods since 1926 (start of CRSP data set), only five since 1870 (start of the Cowles Commission data)...
by nisiprius
Fri Nov 17, 2017 7:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Risks of Non-ACA Compliant Health Insurance?
Replies: 66
Views: 2475

Re: Risks of Non-ACA Compliant Health Insurance?

[Deleted my post because I decided it was a little too close to being medical advice].
by nisiprius
Fri Nov 17, 2017 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Goldman Sachs mulls the death of the value factor
Replies: 18
Views: 2002

Re: Goldman Sachs mulls the death of the value factor

...When BusinessWeek comes out with a "Death of Value" cover, a huge rally in the Large Value stocks will be ahead. It took about 3-4 years after the infamous "Death of Equities" article for one of the greatest bull markets ever to ignite... The "Death of Equities" article is fine. It is constantly...
by nisiprius
Fri Nov 17, 2017 4:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Risks of Non-ACA Compliant Health Insurance?
Replies: 66
Views: 2475

Re: Risks of Non-ACA Compliant Health Insurance?

"Anything you are diagnosed for must be treated within the same six-month period as it will be considered a pre-existing condition for whatever insurance you buy at the end of the short term period--including another short-term policy. So I'm not sure what you mean by "renewing" it. If something ha...
by nisiprius
Fri Nov 17, 2017 1:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Risks of Non-ACA Compliant Health Insurance?
Replies: 66
Views: 2475

Re: Risks of Non-ACA Compliant Health Insurance?

"Short term" is what it says and it is very dangerous. Anything you are diagnosed for must be treated within the same six-month period as it will be considered a pre-existing condition for whatever insurance you buy at the end of the short term period--including another short-term policy. So I'm not...
by nisiprius
Fri Nov 17, 2017 9:12 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How unwise is it to move to a high-tax fiscally-shaky state? (Connecticut)
Replies: 50
Views: 3684

Re: How unwise is it to move to a high-tax fiscally-shaky state? (Connecticut)

[Ranking stuff] I don't think you can count UC campuses as "one". Very different universities. Amazed at UTA ranking because my perception is its way up there. Top 10 or 15 public universities. I have encountered grads from its business programme, and have been impressed. I wasn't really trying to ...
by nisiprius
Thu Nov 16, 2017 6:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How unwise is it to move to a high-tax fiscally-shaky state? (Connecticut)
Replies: 50
Views: 3684

Re: How unwise is it to move to a high-tax fiscally-shaky state? (Connecticut)

mega317 wrote:
Thu Nov 16, 2017 5:35 pm
You skipped #28 University of Michigan! I hadn't seen the 2018 rankings and you made me nervous for a second.
So sorry, I was confused... I thought the University of Michigan was private... somehow. Thinking of Pennsylvania, I guess. I'll add it.
by nisiprius
Thu Nov 16, 2017 2:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How unwise is it to move to a high-tax fiscally-shaky state? (Connecticut)
Replies: 50
Views: 3684

Re: How unwise is it to move to a high-tax fiscally-shaky state? (Connecticut)

here are lots of good private colleges in New England and the Mid-Atlantic states, probably more than in many other parts of the country. There's even one in New Haven ;-) ... I was thinking of the cost issue. Although private colleges are famous, I suspect the majority of Americans actually attend...
by nisiprius
Thu Nov 16, 2017 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying and Spending Bitcoin
Replies: 53
Views: 4044

Re: Buying and Spending Bitcoin

Excellent thread! Thanks for posting your experiences. Ditto. What happens if you lose the "master seed key?" Do you end up with a big wheel of bitcoin at the bottom of the sea... still there, "safe," can't be stolen by anybody else, just inaccessible to you? This page says that the Subway sandwich...
by nisiprius
Thu Nov 16, 2017 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Different Approaches to Estimating World's Total Market?
Replies: 7
Views: 722

Re: Different Approaches to Estimating World's Total Market?

1) There is no such thing as the world's total market. The theory behind cap-weighting total markets relies on the idea of a unified market, with low trading friction, within which investors can freely exchange from one security into another. The theory doesn't apply to a collection of separate mark...
by nisiprius
Thu Nov 16, 2017 11:15 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How unwise is it to move to a high-tax fiscally-shaky state? (Connecticut)
Replies: 50
Views: 3684

Re: How unwise is it to move to a high-tax fiscally-shaky state? (Connecticut)

Offhand I'm surprised that people would specifically tag Connecticut as being a problem. I'm not really familiar with it (mostly drive through it) but I can't think of anything so awful about the state of Connecticut as a whole that would lead you to cross a job off the list if the job otherwise loo...
by nisiprius
Thu Nov 16, 2017 9:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The passive investing trap
Replies: 20
Views: 3434

Re: The passive investing trap

...The main point of that article seems to be, "Investors tend to engage in irrational and/or risky behavior. Therefore, index funds are bad." Yes, EXACTLY. Now, it is possible that index funds somehow encourage certain behavioral errors. I don't believe it, but it's possible. After all, I actually...
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 15, 2017 10:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you subscribe to taking risk only on the equity side
Replies: 40
Views: 2267

Re: Do you subscribe to taking risk only on the equity side

I don't think of a portfolio this way. I think of a portfolio having risk and return as an entity. The risk and return of the portfolio can be calculated from the weighted proportions of the risk and return of the components (and the correlations). As a matter of arithmetic stocks are riskier and h...
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 15, 2017 9:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: AT & T outage - [Nationwide outage]
Replies: 12
Views: 1200

Re: AT & T outage - [Nationwide outage]

AT&T outage map No idea if this site is trustworthy...

Image
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 15, 2017 9:36 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: AT & T outage - [Nationwide outage]
Replies: 12
Views: 1200

Re: AT & T outage - [Nationwide outage]

Reminds me of being in college in 1965, sitting in the dark in Cambridge, Massachusetts, with flashlights, listening to portable radios... picking up radio stations far away because all the nearby stations were out... and listening to a Canadian station telling us that "rumors that the blackout exte...
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 15, 2017 7:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you subscribe to taking risk only on the equity side
Replies: 40
Views: 2267

Re: Do you subscribe to taking risk only on the equity side

I don't think of a portfolio this way. I think of a portfolio having risk and return as an entity. The risk and return of the portfolio can be calculated from the weighted proportions of the risk and return of the components (and the correlations). As a matter of arithmetic stocks are riskier and h...
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 15, 2017 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The passive investing trap
Replies: 20
Views: 3434

Re: The passive investing trap

You can find charts and numbers on the cumulative and annualized real return of the stock market, including dividends, in many places. If that chart is supposed to be showing that the losses of the bear markets have wiped out the gains from bull markets, it just ain't so. I can assure you that from ...
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 15, 2017 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bitcoin: Significance of 12 transactions per second?
Replies: 28
Views: 2860

Re: Bitcoin: Significance of 12 transactions per second?

That wiki has its own page on scalability that's over six years old. You mean the one that begins "[Note: This page is seriously outdated and largely unmaintained; due to past incidents of edit-warring it has not been subject to much peer review.]?" And there's also a Wikipedia page devoted to the ...
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 15, 2017 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you subscribe to taking risk only on the equity side
Replies: 40
Views: 2267

Re: Do you subscribe to taking risk only on the equity side

I am curious, as Larry Swedroe and others have said to take your risk on the equity side. It would seem to me that there are legitimate opportunities in preferred stocks and convertible bonds that lie somewhere between bonds and stocks to add some return without the same risk levels of equities. Do...
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 15, 2017 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bitcoin: Significance of 12 transactions per second?
Replies: 28
Views: 2860

Re: Bitcoin: Significance of 12 transactions per second?

It is significant in three ways. 1) It is another example of bitcoin not being what its advocates said it was . One more "oh, yeah, everybody in the in-group knew about that but we forget to mention it to you until now." The most convincing case to me for bitcoin being "legit," and not just intended...
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 15, 2017 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GE and the myth of "safe blue-chip stocks"
Replies: 73
Views: 7208

Re: GE and the myth of "safe blue-chip stocks"

...“Safe blue chip stocks” is a phrase from the 70s which has meant “meager performance” since the 90s or so... As recently as 2009, Brent Arends in the Wall Street Journal was suggesting that they were an appropriate place to put emergency cash. (To be fair, but what fun is that?, $10,000 invested...
by nisiprius
Tue Nov 14, 2017 10:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GE and the myth of "safe blue-chip stocks"
Replies: 73
Views: 7208

Re: GE and the myth of "safe blue-chip stocks"

...As for the GE company, this is a very unique case. GE is much like an index fund... No, it isn't. It isn't regulated by the Investment Company Act of 1940. ...it has no restrictions it has too many of business. You name it. Like Litton Industries, ITT, and Ling-Temco-Vought. During 2008, the GE ...
by nisiprius
Tue Nov 14, 2017 10:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Keurig died...what now?
Replies: 73
Views: 5148

Re: Keurig died...what now?

A mild negative vote, or at least a caution, on the Technivorm Moccamaster (which is a filter-cone drip coffeemaker, not a K-cup unit). We've had ours for perhaps twelve years, it makes really good coffee, and the main unit seems solid and must have a bigger heater coil because it boils the water mo...
by nisiprius
Tue Nov 14, 2017 10:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Improving returns on total bond market without changing the risk profile
Replies: 8
Views: 1122

Re: Improving returns on total bond market without changing the risk profile

But he did change the risk profile. He says that plain old Total Bond had an annualized (CAGR) return of 4.64% and a standard deviation of 3.42%, but his three-fund "ideal mixture" had a return of 5.09% and a standard deviation of 3.98%. Since the standard deviation was higher, he wasn't comparing a...
by nisiprius
Tue Nov 14, 2017 3:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GE and the myth of "safe blue-chip stocks"
Replies: 73
Views: 7208

Re: GE and the myth of "safe blue-chip stocks"

...The price of GE is the lowest since the depths of the financial crisis of 2009. To her, this is a golden opportunity... I wonder if there are any shares of Enron still extent? Just think how low the prices of Enron is. Perhaps there are some Enron employees that still have printed stock certific...
by nisiprius
Tue Nov 14, 2017 2:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GE and the myth of "safe blue-chip stocks"
Replies: 73
Views: 7208

Re: GE and the myth of "safe blue-chip stocks"

Nisi, it's worse than you thought: GE shares plunge 8% for biggest decline since housing recession after turnaround plan unveiled General Electric announces it will cut its dividend in half as part of a broader corporate restructuring. It plans a renewed focus on health care, aviation and energy. C...