Search found 34278 matches

by nisiprius
Fri Feb 23, 2018 7:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk Parity Investing
Replies: 7
Views: 369

Re: Risk Parity Investing

...The point is that when you invest in international stocks and commodities (futures) over a period in which US stocks beat international stocks soundly and commodities drop like a rock, you tend to do worse than a basic US stock/bond allocation... So is there any risk parity fund older than AQRIX...
by nisiprius
Fri Feb 23, 2018 5:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk Parity Investing
Replies: 7
Views: 369

Re: Risk Parity Investing

1) As noted in another post, if the concept of risk parity has been around since 1970, and if Burton Malkiel thinks there is enough value in the concept to structure an important Wealthfront service around it, then I think it is very odd that he says nothing about risk parity in the 2016 edition of ...
by nisiprius
Fri Feb 23, 2018 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When Stocks and Bonds Fall
Replies: 24
Views: 1176

Re: When Stocks and Bonds Fall

...I would be curious to know what happened that one year on the scatter chart that bonds were -12% and stocks were -21%... It was 1946. I should have mentioned that my data values are inflation-adjusted , so those numbers reflect the 18.2% inflation of that year. Without inflation correction, the ...
by nisiprius
Fri Feb 23, 2018 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Vanguard brokerage culture represent the underlying Vanguard fund?
Replies: 10
Views: 1136

Re: Does Vanguard brokerage culture represent the underlying Vanguard fund?

Incidentally, for some years now--ever since Vanguard passed Fidelity in total assets--John C. Bogle has publicly expressed concerns about the possibility that Vanguard is getting too big, e.g. here . He has an essay... I thought it was reprinted in one of this books but I can't find it... with a ti...
by nisiprius
Fri Feb 23, 2018 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When Stocks and Bonds Fall
Replies: 24
Views: 1176

Re: When Stocks and Bonds Fall

Non -correlation isn't negative correlation. I think stocks and bonds will continue to exhibit non -correlation, i.e. move independently. Hoping that they will always move in opposite directions is the investing equivalent of perpetual motion. But it's not that important, anyway. The dream that any...
by nisiprius
Fri Feb 23, 2018 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When Stocks and Bonds Fall
Replies: 24
Views: 1176

Re: When Stocks and Bonds Fall

...PS I enjoy Nisiprius' graphs, charts, explanations and insights. Thanks for adding to every thread you post to... Thank you. One reason I do it is to encourage people to do it themselves . It's easy. It isn't the answer to life, the universe, and everything, but IMHO it is much better than readi...
by nisiprius
Fri Feb 23, 2018 10:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When Stocks and Bonds Fall
Replies: 24
Views: 1176

Re: When Stocks and Bonds Fall

They couldn't have prevented a crushing loss unless you were holding five times as much Treasuries as stocks, i.e. your stock allocation was lower than 17/83 . Holy crap -- this I did not know. 17/83...that's a ratio I can't imagine many people have. OK -- I'll just buckle my seatbelt and turn off ...
by nisiprius
Fri Feb 23, 2018 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When Stocks and Bonds Fall
Replies: 24
Views: 1176

Re: When Stocks and Bonds Fall

Non -correlation isn't negative correlation. I think stocks and bonds will continue to exhibit non -correlation, i.e. move independently. Hoping that they will always move in opposite directions is the investing equivalent of perpetual motion. But it's not that important, anyway. The dream that any...
by nisiprius
Fri Feb 23, 2018 8:09 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Wanna try a more risky fund in Roth IRA
Replies: 15
Views: 970

Re: Wanna try a more risky fund in Roth IRA

The last thing in the world I would do is ask someone else for suggestions on what kind of risky thing to do. To begin with, you are taking the meta-risk of asking someone who might be connected with or sells something risky. In the forum, that probably not true for most of postings, and you have li...
by nisiprius
Thu Feb 22, 2018 10:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wealthfront Risk Parity???
Replies: 7
Views: 899

Re: Wealthfront Risk Parity???

I think I may have missed nasrullah's joke about his timing, seeing as I don't follow this stuff. The AQR Risk Parity Fund, AQRIX, recently dropped about 9% in about eight or nine days, and from web searches I take it that risk parity in general has been having a fairly bad time recently.
by nisiprius
Thu Feb 22, 2018 10:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wealthfront Risk Parity???
Replies: 7
Views: 899

Re: Wealthfront Risk Parity???

I don't want my broker comparing my investments to a situation where I "only" lose 5% instead of 40%.
by nisiprius
Thu Feb 22, 2018 10:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wealthfront Risk Parity???
Replies: 7
Views: 899

Re: Wealthfront Risk Parity???

Wealthfront says "The empirical underpinning for Risk Parity has existed in academic literature since the 1970s." They go on quote Burton Malkiel, "Chief Investment Officer, Ph.D." as they describe him , as saying : Imagine you’re at a horse racing track. There are long-shot horses (considered by mo...
by nisiprius
Thu Feb 22, 2018 9:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Vanguard brokerage culture represent the underlying Vanguard fund?
Replies: 10
Views: 1136

Re: Does Vanguard brokerage culture represent the underlying Vanguard fund?

...The people who run the actual Vanguard funds... ...are at Vanguard. ...The people who make sure the funds actually have the assets they are reporting... Are not at Vanguard. They are at a custodian bank. Each fund has its own custodian bank. It's often JPMorgan Chase for many of the Vanguard fun...
by nisiprius
Thu Feb 22, 2018 7:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Terminology question: what does "losing money" mean?
Replies: 71
Views: 2577

Re: Terminology question: what does "losing money" mean?

It is time for nisiprius to let us in on what the question really is. My question was whether people agree with me that the phrase "losing money" means "to have a small number of dollars at the end of a time period." It does not mean "to have a lower inflation-adjusted real value," nor does it mean...
by nisiprius
Thu Feb 22, 2018 3:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thinking about selling GE to invest in an index fund
Replies: 24
Views: 2323

Re: Thinking about selling GE to invest in an index fund

I like to do things gradually, myself. I find that it helps overcome the question of whether it is "the right time." Among the possible things you could do, one of them would be to sell 1/4 of your GE holdings every six months or something like that. It's pretty easy to commit to just selling 1/4. I...
by nisiprius
Thu Feb 22, 2018 2:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How To "Create" VTSAX in 401k When It's Not Available
Replies: 12
Views: 834

Re: How To "Create" VTSAX in 401k When It's Not Available

I suggest you begin by saying to yourself "VFIAX is close enough to the total market," explore that hypothesis, and see where it takes you. If you have another account, e.g. a Roth IRA, in which you can buy anything you like, then the obvious answer is to add the Vanguard Extended Market Index Fund,...
by nisiprius
Thu Feb 22, 2018 1:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Boglehead Flashlight?
Replies: 51
Views: 3031

Re: Boglehead Flashlight?

I have quit buying hand-held "flashlights" years ago, and I buy only LED "headlamps." I'm not sure what flashlights are good for unless you seriously need a small spot of bright light at a great distance. As for what kind, the days when my wife and I gave each other $45 name-brand specialty-camping-...
by nisiprius
Thu Feb 22, 2018 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Terminology question: what does "losing money" mean?
Replies: 71
Views: 2577

Re: Terminology question: what does "losing money" mean?

3) All three funds lost real value. By the way, is there a typo in 2)? There was. ...Though for the sake of investment comparisons, I would reference fund returns to cash return... I like that in principle. For that purpose, what would you use as "cash" and "cash return?" Treasury bills? Something ...
by nisiprius
Thu Feb 22, 2018 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Terminology question: what does "losing money" mean?
Replies: 71
Views: 2577

Re: Terminology question: what does "losing money" mean?

2) All three funds failed to lost to inflation. I certainly would not use 2) I'm not English but that sentence doesn't seem to make sense. It doesn't seem to, because it doesn't. I still haven't learned to proofread my postings properly. It's a mistake. I first wrote "failed to keep up with inflati...
by nisiprius
Thu Feb 22, 2018 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Terminology question: what does "losing money" mean?
Replies: 71
Views: 2577

Terminology question: what does "losing money" mean?

I don't want to engage in any deception here, it's clear enough. But I really want to know how people customarily use language. Here are three funds. Source https://imgur.com/aVnw4QG.png If you had put $10,000 in each of these funds on 1/31/2008, in a tax-advantaged account, with dividends reinveste...
by nisiprius
Thu Feb 22, 2018 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can you lose money in a Money Market savings account ?
Replies: 36
Views: 1959

Re: Can you lose money in a Money Market savings account ?

... If you hold the money in a savings account over long periods of time, you will lose to inflation. Hold $100,000 in a savings account for 10 years, and its real value will drop, even if its nominal value doesn't. I'd argue that that is losing money... Mr. Broken Record here. I think if you check...
by nisiprius
Thu Feb 22, 2018 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can you lose money in a Money Market savings account ?
Replies: 36
Views: 1959

Re: Can you lose money in a Money Market savings account ?

No, over45. You misunderstand. It's the fault of the banks and Congress for allowing banks to use a very confusing and deceptive name. You are right to have paid attention to the name, and to wonder what it actually means. I'm going to assume the bank is a member of the FDIC. "Money market deposit a...
by nisiprius
Thu Feb 22, 2018 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Diversification
Replies: 7
Views: 542

Re: Diversification

I do not think there is any need to "diversify" into alternative assets outside of securities (stocks and bonds). "Diversification" is often oversold, because if you cannot say anything else good about some weird investment, you can always say that it is "diversifier." Pay attention: if you check ou...
by nisiprius
Wed Feb 21, 2018 7:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2018 (Summary Edition)
Replies: 10
Views: 806

Re: Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2018 (Summary Edition)

I wonder why Switzerland? Because Credit Suisse ?... :oops: I yam stoopid. In penance, I will post this graphic I thought was neat (from 2015). The area of each country is proportional to its stock market capitalization. https://ei.marketwatch.com/Multimedia/2015/08/12/Photos/ZH/MW-DS043_worldm_201...
by nisiprius
Wed Feb 21, 2018 7:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Capital One 360 Money Market now at 1.5%
Replies: 15
Views: 2084

Re: Capital One 360 Money Market now at 1.5%

I recently moved my emergency fund savings account to one ($30,000). I'm such a poor boglehead that I had it in the non-money market savings version they offer, getting 0.6% or something, and never really checked up on it. If you'd really checked up on it you might have noticed that the (regular) s...
by nisiprius
Wed Feb 21, 2018 6:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2018 (Summary Edition)
Replies: 10
Views: 806

Re: Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2018 (Summary Edition)

Hmmm... well, I see, you're right, my copy of the 2017 edition is indeed called "Summary Edition" but at least it had data for all 23 of the original "Triumph of the Optimists" countries, while the 2018 edition only has China, Japan, Switzerland (?), the United Kingdom, and the United States. Too ba...
by nisiprius
Wed Feb 21, 2018 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone subscribe to Socrates ?
Replies: 17
Views: 1658

Re: Anyone subscribe to Socrates ?

π? Ratio of circumference to diameter? 3.1415926535? That's not a joke? Only of a circle. Your demonstrated lack of precision makes you a poor fit for this line of work. :twisted: ...and only 10 places after the decimal. Any piker can take PI to several hundred places. Yeah, I used to be proud of k...
by nisiprius
Wed Feb 21, 2018 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which Inflation Rate Do You Use?
Replies: 19
Views: 1100

Re: Which Inflation Rate Do You Use?

Shadowstats is bunk. And the longer they go on claiming that the true rate of inflation is 8-10% per year, the bunkier it gets. 1) First off, and most important, you can tell easily that they are not doing what they claim to be doing , by looking at their data circa 2006. Before 1983, the CPI used a...
by nisiprius
Wed Feb 21, 2018 10:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quantitative value for portfolio risk?
Replies: 8
Views: 326

Re: Quantitative value for portfolio risk?

For what it's worth, PortfolioVisualizer provides several useful measures of what the level of risk has been, in the past, for specific portfolios, over the number of years for which PortfolioVisualizer has data. For example, let's suppose someone says that tactical asset allocation funds managers a...
by nisiprius
Wed Feb 21, 2018 9:39 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What does it mean to be "in cash"?
Replies: 21
Views: 1251

Re: What does it mean to be "in cash"?

A dictionary offers:
A lexicographer at the American Heritage Dictionary wrote:cash (kăsh) n.
1. Money in the form of bills or coins; currency.
2. Liquid assets including bank deposits and marketable securities.
3. Money paid in currency or by check: paid in cash.
by nisiprius
Wed Feb 21, 2018 8:01 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: retirement calculator - most that I've seen are missing some things
Replies: 18
Views: 2303

Re: retirement calculator - most that I've seen are missing some things

When I used the Fidelity Retirement Income Planner circa 2007, it definitely did allow me to enter year-by-year future dollar numbers for some things (rather than just plugging in one real-dollar number for all years). I remember the Fidelity advisor discussing how long we keep our cars, how much we...
by nisiprius
Tue Feb 20, 2018 9:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax loss harvesting and whether robo-investor fees are worth it
Replies: 27
Views: 1990

Re: Tax loss harvesting and whether robo-investor fees are worth it

Be sure to read How do I unwind this Wealthfront mess? before using Wealthfront. I thought that Wealthfront put investors in a fairly reasonable seven-or-eight ETF portfolio, with heavy use of Vanguard ETFs. Apparently... that's not what they do in taxable accounts. Wealthfront put this poster into ...
by nisiprius
Tue Feb 20, 2018 8:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard US Multifactor Funds Launch
Replies: 26
Views: 3279

Re: Vanguard US Multifactor Funds Launch

... (3) the size effect was never that large and historically in part probably more illiquidity premium than anything else, so bad runs are bound to happen... "Everyone" is saying now that the size effect was never that large, but that is not what people were saying just a few years ago. Clifford A...
by nisiprius
Tue Feb 20, 2018 7:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone subscribe to Socrates ?
Replies: 17
Views: 1658

Re: Anyone subscribe to Socrates ?

Who or what is Armstrong Econ. or Socrates, and why should I be interested in them? Hmmm... Wikipedia has an article on Martin A. Armstrong : Martin Arthur Armstrong (born November 1, 1949) is an economic forecaster who uses his own computer model based on pi. In 1999 Armstrong was charged with frau...
by nisiprius
Tue Feb 20, 2018 6:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do I unwind this Wealthfront mess?
Replies: 64
Views: 4963

Re: How do I unwind this Wealthfront mess?

...I think if you turn off Direct Indexing, they will gradually put your individual stocks back into the ETFs. https://support.wealthfront.com/hc/en-us/articles/115002972943-Can-I-opt-out-of-Advanced-Indexing- "I have some good news and some bad news. The good news is that" If you previously had Di...
by nisiprius
Tue Feb 20, 2018 5:42 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Blank line doubling
Replies: 27
Views: 2073

Re: Blank line doubling

What I thought was obvious, isn't. Clicking this link will send this page to an HTML validator. It show end tag errors for img and br tags. https://validator.w3.org/check/referer Ron There's obviously some kind of bug in phpBB. I saw something like this a year or so ago, by the way, but it only last...
by nisiprius
Tue Feb 20, 2018 5:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do I unwind this Wealthfront mess?
Replies: 64
Views: 4963

Re: How do I unwind this Wealthfront mess?

I still don't understand how you ended up with 124 holdings at Wealthfront. I've peeked at their suggested portfolios, and I was under the impression that a typical Wealthfront portfolio consisted of seven or eight ETFs, and mostly Vanguard ETFs at that.
by nisiprius
Tue Feb 20, 2018 1:11 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Blank line doubling
Replies: 27
Views: 2073

Re: Blank line doubling

1) Yes, I've noticed this, too, and haven't tried to diagnose it or characterize it. 2) Quick test. These three lines are not separated by blank lines in the "Post A Reply" edit field. 3) This is the third line. 1) These three lines... 2) are separated by single blank lines... 3) ...in the "Post a R...
by nisiprius
Tue Feb 20, 2018 8:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: J. Montier: US equity market is obscenely overvalued
Replies: 33
Views: 3226

Re: J. Montier: US equity market is obscenely overvalued

I can't remember any time when there haven't been some gurus saying that the stock market was overvalued ("irrational exuberance") and that it was undervalued ("Stock Prices are Still Far Too Low," WSJ, 1999, Glassman and Hassett). Adjectives like "obscenely" instantly remind me of David Freedman's ...
by nisiprius
Tue Feb 20, 2018 7:59 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Will REIT funds ever see another drawdown like 2008?
Replies: 51
Views: 4383

Re: Will REIT funds ever see another drawdown like 2008?

A perennial debate is whether REITs represent "real estate." It's a parallel to the question of whether people who want exposure to "gold" itself should be satisfied with mutual funds that invest in gold mining companies. It's possible to believe that real estate is a unique asset class of its own, ...
by nisiprius
Mon Feb 19, 2018 7:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Will REIT funds ever see another drawdown like 2008?
Replies: 51
Views: 4383

Re: Will REIT funds ever see another drawdown like 2008?

It's just ordinary common sense to assume that if it actually happened once, it could happen again. Nassim Nicholas Taleb has noted: Risk management professionals look in the past for information on the so-called ​worst-case scenario ​and use it to estimate future risks – this method is called “stre...
by nisiprius
Mon Feb 19, 2018 4:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding an ETF by it's Name
Replies: 24
Views: 792

Re: Understanding an ETF by it's Name

The dictionary definition of "international" is: 1. Of, relating to, or involving two or more nations: an international commission; international affairs. 2. Extending across or transcending national boundaries: international fame. An "international" investment is one that crosses a border. To a U.S...
by nisiprius
Mon Feb 19, 2018 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sell me on the benefits of an emergency fund
Replies: 119
Views: 6751

Re: Sell me on the benefits of an emergency fund

...And BTW, you do realize (as I and later radiowave have pointed out) that with recent inflation and rates of return on VMMXX (or similar funds), you are currently "losing money" by your own definition? No, my own definition of "losing money" is "decreasing number of dollars," and I think that is ...
by nisiprius
Mon Feb 19, 2018 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it "cute" to invest in sector funds?
Replies: 23
Views: 1466

Re: Is it "cute" to invest in sector funds?

Larry Swedroe, "Rules of Prudent Investing:" #17: Owning individual stocks and sector funds is more akin to speculating, not investing. The market compensates investors for risks that cannot be diversified away, like the risk of investing in stocks versus bonds. Investors shouldn't expect compensati...
by nisiprius
Mon Feb 19, 2018 9:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying and Spending Bitcoin
Replies: 194
Views: 23285

Re: Buying and Spending Bitcoin

Fortune gives a long, interesting, complicated, and credible account: Coinbase's Overcharging Glitch Is Both Worldpay and Visa's Fault . Oh so reminiscent of other technology finger-pointing arguments! --Coinbase said blamed Visa, because only Visa cardholders experienced the duplicate charges. --V...
by nisiprius
Mon Feb 19, 2018 8:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sell me on the benefits of an emergency fund
Replies: 119
Views: 6751

Re: Sell me on the benefits of an emergency fund

Over the maximum time period Morningstar can show me, an investment in the Vanguard Tax-Exempt Money Market Fund would have grown $10,000 on 6/30/1980 to $29,872.49 on 12/31/2017. The CPI was 82.50 at the end of June, 1980, and 247.910 at the end of December, 2017. Therefore $29,872.49 was equivalen...
by nisiprius
Mon Feb 19, 2018 8:03 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sell me on the benefits of an emergency fund
Replies: 119
Views: 6751

Re: Sell me on the benefits of an emergency fund

...Regarding "opportunity cost", you are arguing semantics... Yes. Indeed. I am. That is what I am doing. You can take your money market fund (interest taxable as ordinary income) and I'll take my balanced portfolio of (say) muni bonds (zero tax) and tax-efficient stock index funds or ETF's (modest...
by nisiprius
Mon Feb 19, 2018 7:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying and Spending Bitcoin
Replies: 194
Views: 23285

Re: Buying and Spending Bitcoin

[Added] But note in_reality's added remarks in the post following this one. [Further added]A Feb 16th item in Fortune judges that Coinbase's Overcharging Glitch Is Both Worldpay and Visa's Fault . If you made purchases between Jan. 22nd and Feb.11th this year using coinbase, you may have been overch...