Search found 36586 matches

by nisiprius
Fri Jan 18, 2019 3:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Giving Amazon Kindle books or gift cards from the US to Mexico?
Replies: 1
Views: 67

Giving Amazon Kindle books or gift cards from the US to Mexico?

I tried to do a nice thing and created a nuisance. I'm not interested in trying to resolve the problem with what I did, let's write off what's spent and move on, but I'd like suggestions, based on personal experience , on what might actually work. I live in the US. My Amazon account is at amazon.com...
by nisiprius
Fri Jan 18, 2019 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Government shutdown and US Treasuries
Replies: 14
Views: 1911

Re: Government shutdown and US Treasuries

S&P cut its rating on US Treasuries from AAA to AA+ in 2011, and has kept it there (it's still at AA+), while A. M. Best, Fitch, and Moody's kept it at AAA. At about that time, Vanguard--probably others, haven't paid much attention--began describing Treasuries as in a separate category called "U. S....
by nisiprius
Fri Jan 18, 2019 11:25 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How do you keep a calendar?
Replies: 29
Views: 1202

Re: How do you keep a calendar?

My wife and I use a paper calendar which we hang in the kitchen. It is the only thing that works for us. By choice, an At-A-Glance or other office-supply-company calendar that has a) enough space to write on, and b) non-glossy surfaces that take pencil and accept erasures. They seem wildly overprice...
by nisiprius
Fri Jan 18, 2019 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10073
Views: 1782838

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

MJS wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:46 pm
"Well, it looks like the BM is over...
Seriously, do people use BM as an initialism for "bull market?"
by nisiprius
Fri Jan 18, 2019 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Differences in Investment Approach
Replies: 38
Views: 855

Re: Differences in Investment Approach

Contentious topics also include personalities. For example, the opinions, writings, and press interviews of (in no particular order) gurus Dave Ramsey, Meb Faber, Jeremy Grantham and GMO, DoubleLine's Jeffrey Gundlach, Marc Faber (Boomdoomgloom), Ray Dalio ("Risk Parity" strategy), Paul Merriman (st...
by nisiprius
Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Differences in Investment Approach
Replies: 38
Views: 855

Re: Differences in Investment Approach

"Skinflint" means what it says. For example, does a true Boglehead merely seek "low enough " expense ratios in mutual funds and ETFs? Or is a true Boglehead required to pick up pennies from the sidewalk, drive a 1979 Honda Civic, and lose sleep agonizing between Vanguard VTIAX with an 0.04% ER or Fi...
by nisiprius
Fri Jan 18, 2019 8:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I increase my stock allocation to 90% stocks?
Replies: 48
Views: 3089

Re: Should I increase my stock allocation to 90% stocks?

I use this chart only as a guide to what the industry regards as conservative, moderate, and aggressive allocations. This is a chart I made from numbers in a Morningstar article on how they benchmark target-date funds. I added "age in bonds" for comparison. This chart actually shows two things. Firs...
by nisiprius
Fri Jan 18, 2019 8:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I increase my stock allocation to 90% stocks?
Replies: 48
Views: 3089

Re: Should I increase my stock allocation to 90% stocks?

So, there was about one chance in seven that your stock holding would be worth less in purchasing power after seven years than at the beginning. Thanks for the detailed explanation! But if I set aside say 50k (I'm making this number up) for the downpayment money in something safe like cash for the ...
by nisiprius
Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When would you stop being a Boglehead?
Replies: 83
Views: 6102

Re: When would you stop being a Boglehead?

I wouldn't stop being a Boglehead, but I would stop being a do-it-yourself investor if my financial life became too complicated to manage. I don't know where I would draw the line exactly, but I once read a sample CFP exam, and the last big essay-style question illustrated the kind of situation wher...
by nisiprius
Thu Jan 17, 2019 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I increase my stock allocation to 90% stocks?
Replies: 48
Views: 3089

Re: Should I increase my stock allocation to 90% stocks?

You said this is money you will need in 6-8 years. From 1927 through 2017, inclusive, there were 12 seven-year periods over which stocks lost real value (i.e. inflation-adjusted). The last three times were 1999-2005, 2000-2006, and 2002-2008 inclusive. There were a total of 83 such periods. So, ther...
by nisiprius
Thu Jan 17, 2019 4:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If Everyone Did The 3 Fund Vanguard Strategy, Would Vanguard Be Controlling US Companies?
Replies: 10
Views: 1304

Re: If Everyone Did The 3 Fund Vanguard Strategy, Would Vanguard Be Controlling US Companies?

With regard to "what if everybody indexed?" Imagine that it is 1861 and that you hear that John Wanamaker's in Philadelphia has put price tags on all of its items, and sells each item at the same price to everybody--fixed price, take it or leave it, no haggling. Then nine years later, you find that ...
by nisiprius
Thu Jan 17, 2019 4:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If Everyone Did The 3 Fund Vanguard Strategy, Would Vanguard Be Controlling US Companies?
Replies: 10
Views: 1304

Re: If Everyone Did The 3 Fund Vanguard Strategy, Would Vanguard Be Controlling US Companies?

Where do you see anything that talks about a "three-fund Vanguard strategy?" Taylor Larimore's book, The Bogleheads' Guide to the Three-Fund Portfolio notes on page 49 that For many years after Jack Bogle introduced his three total market index funds, Vanguard was the only mutual fund company where ...
by nisiprius
Thu Jan 17, 2019 3:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle's Obituary From The Family
Replies: 29
Views: 7019

Re: Jack Bogle's Obituary From The Family

Gesu School's donation page

Blair Academy's donation page

Bryn Mawr Presbyterian Church's donation page, but obviously they weren't thinking of outside contributions as you first need to set up an account to do it electronically.
by nisiprius
Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle has died at age 89
Replies: 819
Views: 39969

Re: John Bogle has died at age 89

I am the Bogle. I speak for low fees.

Image
by nisiprius
Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tributes to Jack Bogle
Replies: 84
Views: 6201

Re: Who Will Speak for US?

I was very pleased to see this come across my Facebook feed--I follow NPR but I don't think Facebook knows of my interest in Bogle. What pleased me is that it wasn't just Wall Street Journal news, it was news , period. And I was pleased by NPR's title. They got it. It wasn't "Bogle, Founder of Reall...
by nisiprius
Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Microcap add diversification to Total Stock Market Index fund?
Replies: 17
Views: 1226

Re: Does Microcap add diversification to Total Stock Market Index fund?

I do not use a small-cap or a small-cap value tilt. I believe that the "prime directive" is "stay the course." I think you will find that most factor advocates will agree and say something like Jared Kizer: Any transparent strategy, which applies to everything outlined in this piece, is capable of e...
by nisiprius
Wed Jan 16, 2019 7:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle has died at age 89
Replies: 819
Views: 39969

Re: John Bogle is dead at 89

I have to say that the first thing that went through my mind were these lines of poetry: But yet I know, where'er I go, That there hath past away a glory from the earth. With John C. Bogle's death, "there has past away a glory from the earth." (I understand that they don't really apply; the poet, Wi...
by nisiprius
Wed Jan 16, 2019 5:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle has died at age 89
Replies: 819
Views: 39969

Re: John Bogle is dead at 89

Oh, no. Words fail me.
by nisiprius
Wed Jan 16, 2019 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?
Replies: 189
Views: 11603

Re: Why are your NOT buying rental properties?

...So, I have to ask... if you are willing to hustle and you have the money, why are you not buying rental properties? Yes, you can buy RE ETF but that is like buying S&P 500. There is no leverage. Leverage is what makes RE investing special but of course leverage is great on the way up but painful...
by nisiprius
Wed Jan 16, 2019 2:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do Money Market Fund Yields and Expense Ratios Work?
Replies: 9
Views: 632

Re: How do Money Market Fund Yields and Expense Ratios Work?

As with other mutual funds, "what you see is what you get." Just as you'd hope. You don't need to subtract the expense ratio from the performance numbers or anything like that. If Schwab's performance chart shows you this, https://imgur.com/CtxkJJI.png then if you put bought $10,000 of SWSXX on the ...
by nisiprius
Wed Jan 16, 2019 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real value of NYC real estate, 1899-1999.
Replies: 48
Views: 3852

Re: Real value of NYC real estate, 1899-1999.

[ ...Nope, historical total return of real estate is comparable to equity (see https://www.cbsnews.com/news/history-says-home-real-estate-is-a-bad-investment/ ). ... :?: :?: :?: You supported a claim that "historical total return of real estate is comparable to equity" with a link to an article that...
by nisiprius
Wed Jan 16, 2019 7:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Which Type of Annuities Did You Choose and Why
Replies: 18
Views: 1035

Re: Which Type of Annuities Did You Choose and Why

I bought two "SPIAs," single premium immediate annuities. They have no investment component, nothing "variable," no "accounts" or "portfolios" inside them. They are simple contracts (less than a page for the essentials, then several pages of legalese about where the company is domiciled and how they...
by nisiprius
Wed Jan 16, 2019 7:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When/why have you needed customer service from Fido, VG, Schwab etc.?
Replies: 30
Views: 1440

Re: When/why have you needed customer service from Fido, VG, Schwab etc.?

As nearly as I can remember, almost every time--I can't remember the others--involved glitches in moving assets from institution to institution. The four institutions were TIAA-CREF, Vanguard, Schwab, and Fidelity. And to the best of my knowledge, in no case was customer service of any particular he...
by nisiprius
Tue Jan 15, 2019 8:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "College Endowments Badly Trail The Market"
Replies: 18
Views: 1917

Re: "College Endowments Badly Trail The Market"

Stunning.

I can already hear the excuses.

If it underperformed after 2009, "it shouldn't count because it was such an unusual bull market in stocks."

If it underperformed in 2008-2009, "well, for heaven's sake, that was during the Global Financial Crisis"

...etc.
by nisiprius
Tue Jan 15, 2019 6:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: End of an era - Boeing 727
Replies: 35
Views: 2388

Re: End of an era - Boeing 727

Always liked that plane. That's the one where it looked as if the wing was coming completely apart during a landing, right? And got off the ground really quick on takeoff?
by nisiprius
Tue Jan 15, 2019 6:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Active Stock Fund Slump (Morningstar discussion)
Replies: 3
Views: 331

Re: Active Stock Fund Slump (Morningstar discussion)

This is likely explained by the impact of a few factors, including the shrinking margin of outperformance before fees; styles like value and size performing more alike; and the "wrong" styles, such as large-cap and growth, leading. While it's reasonable to assume that some of these trends will abat...
by nisiprius
Tue Jan 15, 2019 5:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An Annuity Hater Revisits SPIAs
Replies: 22
Views: 2811

Re: An Annuity Hater Revisits SPIAs

But, unless an inflation-adjusted SPIA is chosen, the longevity insurance does not provide steady spending power. One must consider whether inflation over dozens of years of compounding is riskier than a long life. Choose an inflation-adjusted SPIA. Problem solved. It’s very expensive to insure aga...
by nisiprius
Tue Jan 15, 2019 1:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Message from United Consumer Financial Services (UCFS). A Scam?
Replies: 10
Views: 761

Re: Message from United Consumer Financial Services (UCFS). A Scam?

I get many scam emails that are like this, but none specifically from UCFS. My impression is that they just use names of companies that are so big that there's a good chance that if they send out 100,000 of them, 10,000 of them will be to people who actually are customers. Do you, in fact, do busine...
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 14, 2019 6:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First Crypto ETF Index Fund launched!!! $HODL
Replies: 73
Views: 6662

Re: First Crypto ETF Index Fund launched!!! $HODL

Meanwhile, if I simply do a web search on "HODL ETF" I get boatloads of stories from November 18th and the next few days... and, seemingly, nothing at all after that. Nothing after November 18th searching on "Amun" at Coindesk.com. Is this chart (https://www.six-group.com/exchanges/exchange_traded_...
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 14, 2019 6:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GMO's 7‐Year Asset Class Real Return Forecasts
Replies: 29
Views: 1773

Re: GMO's 7‐Year Asset Class Real Return Forecasts

These were their forecasts 6/30/11-6/30/18 https://pensionpartners.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/gmo4.png Here's my chart of how their forecasts compared with the actual results: https://imgur.com/qoxj7Kh.png The correlation coefficient between the forecasts and the observations 0.05. That is to sa...
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:16 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Credit score dropped dramatically, while credit has been frozen
Replies: 28
Views: 1506

Re: Credit score dropped dramatically, while credit has been frozen

Odd. I froze my credit score in 2017 in the wake of the Equifax breach, with no obvious effects. My credit score, which I get free from my credit card company, is said to be a "Transunion" score (of some kind). It has stayed in the range 793-802 over the past three years.
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 14, 2019 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are index fund managers forced to sell stocks when incurring greater trading?
Replies: 28
Views: 1979

Re: Are index fund managers forced to sell stocks when incurring greater trading?

Here is a link to pull the chart on Yahoo finance: https://finance.yahoo.com/chart/SPY#eyJpbnRlcnZhbCI6Im1vbnRoIiwicGVyaW9kaWNpdHkiOjEsImNhbmRsZVdpZHRoIjoyNywidm9sdW1lVW5kZXJsYXkiOnRydWUsImFkaiI6dHJ1ZSwiY3Jvc3NoYWlyIjp0cnVlLCJjaGFydFR5cGUiOiJsaW5lIiwiZXh0ZW5kZWQiOmZhbHNlLCJtYXJrZXRTZXNzaW9ucyI6e30s...
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard factor funds slow to catch on
Replies: 86
Views: 10602

Re: Vanguard factor funds slow to catch on

...A fund with deeper exposure to a given factor than some benchmark will do better than the benchmark when the factor does well and worse than the benchmark when the factor does poorly. There is no attempt to “dodge benchmarking”; instead it’s an appreciation of the limited usefulness of compariso...
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. economy could slip from top spot in 2020 and keep slipping
Replies: 25
Views: 1851

Re: U.S. economy could slip from top spot in 2020 and keep slipping

hdas wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:26 am
...Long Term GDP growth and stock markets correlate in the long term...
Data?

The MSCI plum-pudding chart in my posting above, showing negative correlation, is for fifty years, which is in "long-term" territory.
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First Crypto ETF Index Fund launched!!! $HODL
Replies: 73
Views: 6662

Re: First Crypto ETF Index Fund launched!!! $HODL

Meanwhile, if I simply do a web search on "HODL ETF" I get boatloads of stories from November 18th and the next few days... and, seemingly, nothing at all after that. Nothing after November 18th searching on "Amun" at Coindesk.com.
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. economy could slip from top spot in 2020 and keep slipping
Replies: 25
Views: 1851

Re: U.S. economy could slip from top spot in 2020 and keep slipping

1) You offer no evidence that it is a "cliff" or a "timing opportunity," rather than a gradual process. I know of no way for a retail investor to invest easily in whole-nation economies or GDPs . What I can invest in is stocks . And China's stock market is a tenth the size of the US. Currently, the...
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 14, 2019 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. economy could slip from top spot in 2020 and keep slipping
Replies: 25
Views: 1851

Re: U.S. economy could slip from top spot in 2020 and keep slipping

1) You offer no evidence that it is a "cliff" or a "timing opportunity," rather than a gradual process. I know of no way for a retail investor to invest easily in whole-nation economies or GDPs . What I can invest in is stocks . And China's stock market is a tenth the size of the US. Currently, the ...
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard factor funds slow to catch on
Replies: 86
Views: 10602

Re: Vanguard factor funds slow to catch on

Well, they seem to be marketing at least one of these multifactors to us now (VFLQ): https://www.etf.com/sections/etf-industry-perspective/vanguard-liquidity-factor-investings-hidden-gem What would the benchmark be for that fund? Mid Cap? Can't even do a comparison on M* via the chart function - do...
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 14, 2019 7:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First Crypto ETF Index Fund launched!!! $HODL
Replies: 73
Views: 6662

Re: First Crypto ETF Index Fund launched!!! $HODL

Can any crypto aficionados bring us up to date on the current state of the HODL ETF? Is it real or was it basically just a publicity stunt?
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 14, 2019 7:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to avoid temptation to buy hot stocks or bitcoin?
Replies: 63
Views: 4212

Re: How to avoid temptation to buy hot stocks or bitcoin?

You avoid temptation by doing exactly that, avoiding it rather than resisting it. One of the virtues of simplicity and staying the course is that you have decided up front to be a "satisficer," content with the possibility that you have a suboptimal portfolio and the likelihood that you have an adeq...
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 14, 2019 7:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)
Replies: 128
Views: 7385

Re: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)

The other point about marginal national stock markets, such as "frontier markets," is that it doesn't actually make any difference whether you include them or not, because they are such a negligible percentage by cap weight that you actually can't tell if they are included in a global portfolio or n...
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 14, 2019 7:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)
Replies: 128
Views: 7385

Re: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)

...Given that, why would Venezuela be "kicked out" of an index? Shouldn't we rather let "the market" decide whether and how much to invest in Venezuelan companies? Anything else is not a pure market-driven metric... Being "purely market-driven" only makes sense if there is a market . What matters h...
by nisiprius
Sun Jan 13, 2019 6:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Medallion Signature guarantee?
Replies: 46
Views: 4348

Re: Medallion Signature guarantee?

My mother recently passed away and I am the executor of her estate. She held some stock in an individual account that I need to transfer to an estate account prior to distribution to the heirs. Unfortunately, I need to get a medallion signature guarantee on the forms requesting the transfer to the ...
by nisiprius
Sun Jan 13, 2019 6:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Fidelity Zero Fund BETTER than Fidelity Expense Ratio Fund
Replies: 31
Views: 3577

Re: Is Fidelity Zero Fund BETTER than Fidelity Expense Ratio Fund

... IF you already own Fidelity Total Market Index Fund, which has an expense ratio of .015, should you switch to the Fidelity Zero Total Market fund?... It is my honest opinion, and my prediction , is that five years from now, if you use Morningstar to chart and compare the growth of a) the Fideli...
by nisiprius
Sun Jan 13, 2019 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I know market timing is a fool's game but...
Replies: 59
Views: 4686

Re: I know market timing is a fool's game but...

The market will crash. A recession will happen. We don't know when. The trick is to ALWAYS hold an Asset Allocation (AA) that you can stick with if the market crashes 50% tomorrow and takes a while to recover. Because it might. The risk is never zero. The risk may be higher at some times than other...
by nisiprius
Sun Jan 13, 2019 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Opinion: Half of investment-grade bonds are only one step away from junk status
Replies: 23
Views: 2399

Re: Opinion: Half of investment-grade bonds are only one step away from junk status

Don't overthink this. I suggest you first decide what rating satisfies you, and then second go by the Morningstar "average credit quality" ratings, and call it good. So corporate bonds are riskier than Treasuries, no news there. For about a decade, there have been critics (including John C. Bogle) c...
by nisiprius
Sun Jan 13, 2019 10:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question about FDIC insurance
Replies: 21
Views: 1290

Re: Question about FDIC insurance

On the one hand, I personally experienced an NCUA handling of a failed credit union, and at about the same time a colleague experienced an FSLIC handling of a failed savings and loan, and both of them were practically non-events. One sign on the door Friday, different sign on the door Monday. The be...
by nisiprius
Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)
Replies: 128
Views: 7385

Re: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)

Here's what I honestly believe. (I assume that you are talking about the choice of holding emerging markets at cap weight, or excluding them; not overweighting them or shorting them or anything bold like that). 1) I don't believe it can make much difference, for reasons I explained above. If emergin...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 12, 2019 9:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)
Replies: 128
Views: 7385

Re: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)

My question for the OP/this audience is: What are the likes of GMO (etc.) missing when they recommend Emerging Markets as a value play? From another thread, GMO 7 year forecasts are worse than a toss of a coin https://pensionpartners.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/gmo4.png What were they missing wh...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 12, 2019 7:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is a bear market, anyway? Bulls, bears, recessions, perceptions
Replies: 1
Views: 256

Re: What is a bear market, anyway? Bulls, bears, recessions, perceptions

And while we are on the topic, the period from 1929 through 1945 is commonly tabulated as two bear markets. Ibbotson SBBI 2015 Classic Yearbook tabulates them this way: Peak August, 1929 Trough May, 1932 Decline, 79% Recovery, November 1936 Peak Feb, 1937 Trough March, 1938 Decline, 49.93% Recovery....