Search found 36101 matches

by nisiprius
Tue Nov 13, 2018 9:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR fund family's performance relative to its benchmarks
Replies: 26
Views: 1703

Re: AQR fund family's performance relative to its benchmarks

For laughs, I did the same analysis on Vanguard's stock funds, using those described by Vanguard as either "US stocks" or "international stocks," "active management," and "investor shares." For the time period, I used fund inception if Vanguard shows a benchmark value from fund inception; otherwise,...
by nisiprius
Tue Nov 13, 2018 9:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A reminder: Stay away from AQR
Replies: 167
Views: 11643

Re: A reminder: Stay away from AQR

Instead of picking stocks, factor investing picks categories of stocks. It does so in a sophisticated way--it isn't just trying to pick categories of stocks that will outperform the rest of the market (although the way some people talk about small-caps you might think so). But it still relies on fin...
by nisiprius
Tue Nov 13, 2018 6:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR fund family's performance relative to its benchmarks
Replies: 26
Views: 1703

Re: AQR fund family's performance relative to its benchmarks

I corrected a small error in the original charts. QCELX had been incorrectly compared to the Russell 2000 and Russell 2000 Growth, instead of the Russell 1000.
by nisiprius
Tue Nov 13, 2018 5:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expected nominal return in 80/20 stock/bond fund for next 10 years
Replies: 10
Views: 1835

Re: Expected nominal return in 80/20 stock/bond fund for next 10 years

The reference book* I'm looking at doesn't have results for 80/20, and the "stocks" and "bonds" it is using would not correspond perfectly to any current mutual fund, but it is showing, for ten-year holding periods, 1926-2014, the return of a 90/10 portfolio ranged from -0.25% to +18.52% the return ...
by nisiprius
Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VGTSX/VTSAX or Just The VTWSX?
Replies: 6
Views: 881

Re: VGTSX/VTSAX or Just The VTWSX?

There's virtually no difference between holding the global cap weights--currently about 50/50--in VGTSX/VTSAX versus holding VTWSX. The expense ratios are so low that I don't think the difference there matters either. I don't want to get into the frequently-debated question of US versus internationa...
by nisiprius
Mon Nov 12, 2018 9:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A reminder: Stay away from AQR
Replies: 167
Views: 11643

Re: A reminder: Stay away from AQR

Here's something odd about the AQR fund family. Let's look at all of their small-cap funds and their Morningstar classifications: ASMOX small growth ATSMX small growth QSMLX small blend QSRIX small blend QSSLX small blend So whatever happened to the theory that small-cap value is Good and small-grow...
by nisiprius
Mon Nov 12, 2018 9:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A reminder: Stay away from AQR
Replies: 167
Views: 11643

Re: A reminder: Stay away from

...A total US stock market fund is exposed only to one factor, right?... It's perverse to call it "only one factor." The market factor is special. It's qualitatively different from the other factors. To take one example, we can get 1.00 loading on the market factor with a long-only portfolio. As a ...
by nisiprius
Mon Nov 12, 2018 6:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7814
Views: 1605264

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Nov 12, 2018 11:30 am
Wow, stocks are down significantly today. Any idea what 'big news' is causing this?
The news that stocks were up significantly last week?
by nisiprius
Mon Nov 12, 2018 2:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Quick Turnaround for Passport Applications (No Payment for Expedited Processing)
Replies: 18
Views: 1598

Re: Quick Turnaround for Passport Applications (No Payment for Expedited Processing)

Same here, about a month or so ago. I didn't actually record dates, but it didn't take long. The new passports came first, and then the returned older passports separately three or four days later. Of course, our renewals were just about as simple as they could possibly be. We already had passports,...
by nisiprius
Mon Nov 12, 2018 12:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR fund family's performance relative to its benchmarks
Replies: 26
Views: 1703

AQR fund family's performance relative to its benchmarks

I was sufficiently intrigued by bjr89's comment, on AQR funds, that "they pretty much all underperform their benchmarks." Eventually it got to me, to the point where I was willing to point and click and copy and paste fifty-six times in order to find out the answer. As is so often the case, it's tri...
by nisiprius
Mon Nov 12, 2018 7:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is NOW a good time to start ETF saving journey?
Replies: 13
Views: 1300

Re: Is NOW a good time to start ETF saving journey?

I remember that the best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago, the second best time is now. I was actually going to quote that saying when I read your thread title. However, given current market hopping up and down wouldn't it be better to wait for few months and start from more stable ground? No....
by nisiprius
Sun Nov 11, 2018 8:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: A Special Kind of Market-Linked CD?
Replies: 14
Views: 717

Re: A Special Kind of Market-Linked CD?

They aren’t great investments, but other forum members are wrong to compare the returns of an FDIC insured CD to the S&P 500. I don't know which forum members you are referring to, but I thought that I, personally, had gone to great pains, to the point of providing charts , to show exactly how the ...
by nisiprius
Sun Nov 11, 2018 8:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: A Special Kind of Market-Linked CD?
Replies: 14
Views: 717

Re: A Special Kind of Market-Linked CD?

P.S. Needless to say, you will find it hard to find out much about the "GS Momentum Builder Multi-Asset 5 ER Index." But from 11/15/2013 to date, it has grown $100 to $118.23 and thus would have grown $10,000 to $11,823. I don't know how that filters through all the other CD machinery and rules (you...
by nisiprius
Sun Nov 11, 2018 8:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: A Special Kind of Market-Linked CD?
Replies: 14
Views: 717

Re: A Special Kind of Market-Linked CD?

If you have been give a vague impression that you can get almost all the return of the stock market, without taking any risk of losses in the stock market, then stop right away. You know that's too good to be true, don't you? So, you know that even if they have not stated anything factually inaccura...
by nisiprius
Sun Nov 11, 2018 7:20 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Lowest Cost GPS-Capable Device for Senior Citizen
Replies: 18
Views: 995

Re: Lowest Cost GPS-Capable Device for Senior Citizen

I have a standalone Garmin nüvi 2555 I bought for about $100 circa 2015. I've gotten free map updates as advertised. It's been great. It is far superior to the built-in nav in the car we bought in 2016 and I always bring it with us on trips so that if--rather when--the built-in nav seems crazy we ha...
by nisiprius
Sun Nov 11, 2018 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A reminder: Stay away from AQR
Replies: 167
Views: 11643

Re: A reminder: Stay away from AQR

...For any market neutral strategy, I tend to think T-bill is the bogey. I do not know what do they use... According to the prospectus, ...The Adviser, on average, will target an annualized volatility level for the Fund of 10%. Volatility is a statistical measurement of the dispersion of returns of...
by nisiprius
Sun Nov 11, 2018 7:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 18 topics badly explained by many Finance Professors
Replies: 15
Views: 2910

Re: 18 topics badly explained by many Finance Professors

17.... I asked to 137 graduate students the following question: “For the following 10 years, do you prefer an investment with an annual return of 16% and a Sharpe ratio of 0,4 or another investment with an annual return of 13% and a Sharpe ratio of 1,3?” All of them (the 137 graduate students) pref...
by nisiprius
Sun Nov 11, 2018 6:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor Momentum (a new toy/target?)
Replies: 8
Views: 765

Re: Factor Momentum (a new toy/target?)

And meanwhile... https://imgur.com/oDfDpBk.png in a 2016 story referencing this paper: The Siren Song of Factor Timing Everyone seems to want to time factors. Often the first question after an initial discussion of factors is “ok, what’s the current outlook?” And the common answer, “the same as usua...
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 10, 2018 7:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Index Fund Admiral Shares Question
Replies: 22
Views: 2394

Re: Vanguard Index Fund Admiral Shares Question

I don't like your hypothetical. But given the choice, I'd choose Total Stock Market, for the same reason I exchanged my actual holdings in Vanguard 500 index for Total Stock Market back in, maybe 2003 or so. I looked back at my reasons for choosing 500 Index in the first place. My reason was, as far...
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 10, 2018 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1482
Views: 211368

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

...If QSPIX has "equity like expected return,"... I believe people say that's a straw man whenever you do it...because it clearly is. I was quoting what Random Walker had said: "pre-tax equity-like expected return." He like Matjen above, thinks a 60/40 portfolio is a reasonable yardstick... Fine, t...
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 10, 2018 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1482
Views: 211368

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

If QSPIX has "pre tax equity like expected returns" than the S&P 500 would be an appropriate benchmark, not the "three month Treasury bills" AQR uses I want to pin you down Nisi on why you would select the S&P to represent all of equities? Is that appropriate or is that just the best performing equ...
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 10, 2018 11:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?
Replies: 145
Views: 10492

Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

WanderingDoc wrote:
Sat Nov 10, 2018 7:27 am
...Do you honestly think that people work for decades on behalf of their society or country? Come on...
Yes. I do. I honestly think that. I really do. Some people.
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 10, 2018 11:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Amazon says TurboTax 2018 will be released November 12
Replies: 37
Views: 4014

Re: Amazon says TurboTax 2018 will be released November 12

I use H&R Block's software on a Mac, and the 2018 version was available and I downloaded it last night. I think all the forms I need are there. I'm sure Intuit won't be far behind.
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 10, 2018 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Natural Disasters and Annuities
Replies: 3
Views: 512

Re: Natural Disasters and Annuities

To add to Alex's excellent answer: Annuities are related to life insurance . Life insurance companies are kept separate from property and casualty insurance companies. They may be owned by a single holding company and marketed under a single brand name, but legally they are separate businesses. If y...
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 10, 2018 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A reminder: Stay away from AQR
Replies: 167
Views: 11643

Re: A reminder: Stay away from AQR

...S&P is not a fair comparison to managed futures... Very well, what is a fair comparison to managed futures? (Grumble: advocates for alternatives seem to be positively evasive about this. I can't accept the idea that alternatives "are their own benchmark," I don't even know what that means. Alter...
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 10, 2018 9:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SWAN ETF - 10% Leaps / 90% Treasuries
Replies: 24
Views: 1877

Re: SWAN ETF - 10% Leaps / 90% Treasuries

...Compared to a larger asset base I lack the scale that might be needed for diversification of the leaps themselves and further (the google link) I'm curious if I would be disciplined enough to not reach for returns when selecting the leaps. If this was something that is executed properly in ETF f...
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 10, 2018 7:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1482
Views: 211368

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

...QSPIX has no net exposure to market beta, yet has Pre tax equity like expected returns... More than once you have used phrases like "pre tax equity like expected return." I want to bug you about that. If QSPIX has "pre tax equity like expected returns" than the S&P 500 would be an appropriate be...
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 10, 2018 7:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SWAN ETF - 10% Leaps / 90% Treasuries
Replies: 24
Views: 1877

Re: SWAN ETF - 10% Leaps / 90% Treasuries

The good thing about having the ETF is it will provide for a true real life test of this strategy which has been discussed on this forum in the past. Amen to that. Morningstar is showing me inception on 11/6/2018, and $12 m illion-with-an-M in assets. Speaking from total ignorance, I have to ask: c...
by nisiprius
Fri Nov 09, 2018 8:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A reminder: Stay away from AQR
Replies: 167
Views: 11643

Re: A reminder: Stay away from AQR

...It’s entirely clear so long as one understands multi factor pricing models and how to measure diversification... You obviously think that you know "how to measure diversification." However, in various postings you've mentioned more than one metric without ever quite saying which is the correct o...
by nisiprius
Fri Nov 09, 2018 4:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Strategy during the last stock market decline
Replies: 52
Views: 5079

Re: Strategy during the last stock market decline

My wife and I were really scared. We did nothing at all. I wouldn't call it a "strategy."
by nisiprius
Fri Nov 09, 2018 1:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A reminder: Stay away from AQR
Replies: 167
Views: 11643

Re: A reminder: Stay away from AQR

...Go down the list. https://funds.aqr.com/total-returns They pretty much all underperform their benchmarks... I'd love to see that confirmed, but the web page you linked doesn't show the benchmarks. Furthermore, AQR makes it pretty easy on themselves with some of the benchmarks they choose; for ex...
by nisiprius
Fri Nov 09, 2018 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good explanation of how bond funds don't get crushed in rising rate environment
Replies: 64
Views: 6126

Re: Good explanation of how bond funds don't get crushed in rising rate environment

...Thanks Nisiprius, I had always thought of returns from my bond funds as interest rather than dividends. However I learned something from you today. If you hold your bonds in a fund rather than as individual bonds the returns are appropriately characterized as dividends. So, if we're just talking...
by nisiprius
Fri Nov 09, 2018 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A reminder: Stay away from AQR
Replies: 167
Views: 11643

Re: A reminder: Stay away from AQR

vineviz wrote:
Fri Nov 09, 2018 10:07 am
nisiprius wrote:
Fri Nov 09, 2018 10:01 am
Why 1970?
I think you missed the fact that the bottom set of charts ( the ones starting with 1970) are for the world ex U.S. and are based on MSCI data that do, in fact, only extend to 1970.
You are right. I was dumb. :oops:
by nisiprius
Fri Nov 09, 2018 10:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A reminder: Stay away from AQR
Replies: 167
Views: 11643

Re: A reminder: Stay away from AQR

Never mind. Stupid mistake on my part. :oops:
by nisiprius
Fri Nov 09, 2018 8:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good explanation of how bond funds don't get crushed in rising rate environment
Replies: 64
Views: 6126

Re: Good explanation of how bond funds don't get crushed in rising rate environment

Bond funds do not pay dividends Bond funds pay dividends. Why don't you think so? It is true that bonds pay "interest," not "dividends." A mutual fund is a kind of "investment company." Although we aren't usually aware of it, they are a fairly special kind of company. The money that the mutual fund...
by nisiprius
Thu Nov 08, 2018 9:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A reminder: Stay away from AQR
Replies: 167
Views: 11643

Re: A reminder: Stay away from AQR

whodidntante wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 7:42 pm
Nice chart, AlexisAtEasternState.
It would be much nicer if it were risk-adjusted return, not raw return. It is very likely that you could come up with similarly impressive statistics showing that leveraged stocks beat unleveraged stocks, for example.
by nisiprius
Thu Nov 08, 2018 7:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A reminder: Stay away from AQR
Replies: 167
Views: 11643

Re: A reminder: Stay away from AQR

...Not mentioned in the article, but they have a Managed Futures fund, god knows how many billions. It's basically where money goes to die. Down 20% in 4 years. Negative 5.5% annually. 1.5-2% Fee... While knowing very little about either, I dislike managed futures, and I dislike AQR. To be fair, ho...
by nisiprius
Thu Nov 08, 2018 8:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?
Replies: 145
Views: 10492

Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

...Bonds didn't drop by 50% during the Great Depression. Oh, maybe you mean corporate bonds. That may be true, I don't know. No. There wasn't any huge difference in the behavior of Treasuries and corporates. I didn't want to clutter the chart too much, and corporates just did better than Treasuries...
by nisiprius
Thu Nov 08, 2018 8:06 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are We In A Real Estate Bubble?
Replies: 80
Views: 9125

Re: Are We In A Real Estate Bubble?

You might consider explaining your goals in attending a real estate workshop hosted by brokers. Indeed. Could the brokers be telling attendees what they think attendees want to hear? Was this a workshop on how to make money in real estate, and did the appeal of the idea depend on assuring participa...
by nisiprius
Thu Nov 08, 2018 8:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are We In A Real Estate Bubble?
Replies: 80
Views: 9125

Re: Are We In A Real Estate Bubble?

Nobody's talking that way around where I live. It doesn't feel at all like 2005-6. I see acquaintances posting on Facebook saying "I can't believe what homes are being listed for, it's crazy, what do young people do, can you believe they want $500,000 for this? " I haven't heard anybody gloating abo...
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 07, 2018 9:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: China Still An Emerging Market?
Replies: 24
Views: 1967

Re: China Still An Emerging Market?

Wikipedia's article on emerging markets contains a summary table of which countries are considered to be emerging markets by nine different authorities.

Nine out of nine consider China to be an emerging market. It's unanimous.

Image

But, why do you care?
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 07, 2018 8:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?
Replies: 145
Views: 10492

Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

...But are you prepared for stocks to drop by almost 90% and bonds to drop by 50%, as happened during the Great Depression?... Bonds didn't "drop by 50% during the Great Depression." Nothing remotely like that happened. These are cumulative total return data, based on the 2015 Ibbotson SBBI Classic...
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 07, 2018 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: EFTPS® vs. Direct Pay what's difference? Which one should I use for Roth conversion tax payment?
Replies: 10
Views: 681

Re: EFTPS® vs. Direct Pay what's difference? Which one should I use for Roth conversion tax payment?

I think ETFPS is an older system that is being superseded by Direct Pay. I can tell you from personal experience that they don't have access to the same records, Direct Pay only knows about payments you've made through Direct Pay and ETFPS only knows about payments made through ETFPS, which can be a...
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 07, 2018 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good explanation of how bond funds don't get crushed in rising rate environment
Replies: 64
Views: 6126

Re: Good explanation of how bond funds don't get crushed in rising rate environment

My capsule explanation is: "Read something that a dividend enthusiast has written about dividend stocks. Then just remember that it all applies to bonds, only much more so ." The reason bond funds don't get crushed in a rising rate environment is that the bonds pay out flippin' coupon interest every...
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 07, 2018 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good explanation of how bond funds don't get crushed in rising rate environment
Replies: 64
Views: 6126

Re: Good explanation of how bond funds don't get crushed in rising rate environment

Taylor—are those real returns or nominal returns? And do they include any assumptions about taxes on interest coupons? 1) PortfolioVisualizer will chart real returns. 2) Why should they include any assumptions about taxes? Data presentations about stocks almost never do. The almost universal conven...
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 07, 2018 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Emerging Market Index: Fidelity or Vangaurd
Replies: 5
Views: 1015

Re: Emerging Market Index: Fidelity or Vangaurd

...and why can't I spell Vanguard correctly......... 1) You can edit the thread title. Just click the pencil item in your original post, and you can change the thread title just like you can change the text in the posting itself. 2) "Vangaurd" is an extremely common misspelling in the forum, almost...
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 07, 2018 10:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Penfed Rewards Card - Gas purchase rewards question
Replies: 21
Views: 1116

Re: Penfed Rewards Card - Gas purchase rewards switcharoo

Generally speaking, I've given up on letting promotional gimmicks influence my consumer choices. They are all subject to modification and cancellation. For example, credit card companies that offer extended warranties or car rental collision insurance features often discontinue them quietly. And the...
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 07, 2018 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Emerging Market Index: Fidelity or Vangaurd
Replies: 5
Views: 1015

Re: Emerging Market Index: Fidelity or Vangaurd

I believe they track different indexes and track different countries. Don't "believe," teach yourself how to check. In a moment I'll do it myself and time how long it takes to get the answer. First, supposing they do, it's pretty hard to see what difference it's made. Blue: Fidelity Emerging Market...
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 07, 2018 7:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?
Replies: 145
Views: 10492

Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

...These quotes are from economists. The guy is a scientist, with a degree in the physical sciences from a top university... After being a successful investor for years, Sir Isaac Newton lost the equivalent of $20 million in the South Sea Bubble. This paper notes ...he was not an other-worldly rese...