Search found 33955 matches

by nisiprius
Tue Jan 23, 2018 8:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Value Premium - How Do You View It?
Replies: 37
Views: 1540

Re: Small Value Premium - How Do You View It?

None of the stated reasons apply. Alexa9 has not succeeded in enumerating all points of view. I am neutral for investors in general, and negative for me. I believe that: a) the small value premium is just compensation for the extra risk. It's no more than that. There's no higher risk-adjusted reward...
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 22, 2018 4:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The regular investor can now trade the stock market 24 hours a day with TD Ameritrade
Replies: 39
Views: 2129

Re: The regular investor can now trade the stock market 24 hours a day with TD Ameritrade

If only that nanny SEC would change its mind and approve those Direxion 2X direct and inverse bitcoin shares, so I could trade 2X leveraged bitcoin ETFs 24x7... <--Note. Joke. Irony. Insincere. Ha. Ha.
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 22, 2018 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Brokerage Account Change to Fidelity - Pros and Cons
Replies: 20
Views: 951

Re: Brokerage Account Change to Fidelity - Pros and Cons

I had parallel accounts at both Vanguard and Fidelity for nearly seven years. They were both fine. There's no need to second-guess any of your reasons. I regard both of them as "honest" firms, maybe I'll give Vanguard a teeny edge as "my kind of place" but Vanguard isn't perfect and Fidelity isn't s...
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 22, 2018 11:49 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Swing Shift vs 8-5
Replies: 10
Views: 593

Re: Swing Shift vs 8-5

I once worked for a company that was in the business of consulting on shiftwork design--there was also some technology involved that didn't pan out too well--and picked up some things while I was there. Basically, shiftwork is brutal, and rotating shiftwork is even worse than a fixed night shift. It...
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 22, 2018 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Commodities for rising interests rates?
Replies: 2
Views: 210

Re: Commodities for rising interests rates?

Don't worry about a "rising interest rate environment." In the first place, that whole phrase is a prediction, phrased to hide the fact that it is a prediction. In April of 2014, Bloomberg polled a panel of 68 economists on what was going to happen to the 10-year Treasury yield over the next six mon...
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 22, 2018 7:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIAA and me again (and Vanguard)
Replies: 14
Views: 900

Re: TIAA and me again (and Vanguard)

Late last year, I posted about investing in Vanguard through my TIAA 403(b). I'm in the process of reallocating my TIAA funds to Vanguard (while staying within TIAA). However, I've just discovered that the largest share of my TIAA account can only go into one Vanguard fund, VMFXX. Currently, this m...
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 22, 2018 7:39 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Ready to give up on bond fund, Lost 2.25% past 6 months
Replies: 63
Views: 6610

Re: Ready to give up on bond fund, Lost 2.25% past 6 months

You have to accept the idea that securities involve risk, real risk, hurts-to-think-of-it risk. A mutual fund is not a bank account. Losing 2% in 6 months is normal for a bond fund. The fluctuations in any stock fund are going to be much worse . SWAGX is the Schwab U.S. Aggregate Bond Index Fund, an...
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 22, 2018 7:06 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 50/50 AA recommended by Benjamin Graham
Replies: 43
Views: 4025

Re: 50/50 AA recommended by Benjamin Graham

An interesting question, which I once made a shallow dig into without coming up with any satisfying answer, is how did 50/50 become 60/40? Graham suggests the nice-round-number 50/50 allocation as the neutral center (in "The Intelligent Investor," 1973). Bogle suggested 50/50 (in "Twelve Pillars," 2...
by nisiprius
Sun Jan 21, 2018 7:29 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Does anyone subscribe to Kiplinger's, Kiplinger's Retirement Review, or Smart Money?
Replies: 21
Views: 1312

Re: Does anyone subscribe to Kiplinger's, Kiplinger's Retirement Review, or Smart Money?

I have been unimpressed by Kiplinger's. My deepest dive was just before I retired, when I was buying various retirement-planning guides, and bought Kiplinger's Retirement Planning guide and found it to be by far the last useful of the things I bought. Light on specifics. Like many magazines, heavily...
by nisiprius
Sun Jan 21, 2018 5:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When Vanguard papers say "diversification benefits," what precisely are they referring to?
Replies: 4
Views: 472

Re: When Vanguard papers say "diversification benefits," what precisely are they referring to?

I don't think it's a precise term. I assume you're referring to their paper, Considerations for investing in non-U.S. equities . The language appears in a discussion of figure 3: https://imgur.com/xHaJJpl.png By "diversification benefit," I think they mean "amount of volatility reduction." They are ...
by nisiprius
Sun Jan 21, 2018 7:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Account Fraud
Replies: 20
Views: 2755

Re: Account Fraud

Not to be glib, but what happens when the cell phone gets compromised? also, would folks here recommend that financial apps should not be installed on phones receiving text messages from financial institutions? Beats me. I have been putting up strong resistance to putting any financial apps on my s...
by nisiprius
Sun Jan 21, 2018 7:24 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: return expensive 3 year old's eye glasses?
Replies: 22
Views: 1576

Re: return expensive 3 year old's eye glasses?

Just personally: if I purchased something foolishly, but committed to the purchase in good faith, and if it is not grotesquely defective, and if the amount of money involved in relation to my income isn't going to affect what groceries I can buy, then I let it go. Much depends on the actual return p...
by nisiprius
Sun Jan 21, 2018 7:01 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Rent (free at library) or buy books?
Replies: 50
Views: 2627

Re: Rent (free at library) or buy books?

Both. When I retired and started thinking about cutting expenses, one of the first things I did was to remove Amazon's "books" from my "favorites" and replace it with a link to the interlibrary loan order page for my local library network. That is, my default way of "ordering a book" is now to borro...
by nisiprius
Sun Jan 21, 2018 6:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolio Watch still sucks, international composition edition
Replies: 12
Views: 1313

Portfolio Watch still sucks, international composition edition

My only international stock holding is Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund, VTIAX. In fact, just to be sure I was doing it correctly, I created an "account group" named "including VTIAX only," including... only my VTIAX holding. https://imgur.com/ktFAsMv.png How does stuff like this happen...
by nisiprius
Sun Jan 21, 2018 6:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Post Your Morningstar Box Style
Replies: 76
Views: 3746

Re: Post Your Morningstar Box Style

Image

But I suspect this thread isn't very useful, because I suspect that it will mostly attract people who are aware of their Morningstar box style, because they've made some conscious decision about what style they want... i.e. are intentionally tilting.
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 20, 2018 6:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?
Replies: 87
Views: 7640

Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

anyone going to this conference? :D [Yahoo! Finance All Markets Summit: Crypto What's wrong with this picture? https://imgur.com/7ZNKK8o.png I'm scared to drill down any further for fear of accidentally buying a ticket, but can anyone confirm whether there is any option for paying in any cryptocurr...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 20, 2018 6:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?
Replies: 87
Views: 7640

Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

...I've tried to introduce other ideas in these discussions, but people seem to be completely uninterested. There are no questions at all. Which I find quite sad... I've posted about Bitcoin Cash, which was supposed to be the solution to Bitcoin's self-inflicted problem... Bitcoin's problems are a ...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 20, 2018 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Mortality and Expense Risk Charge???? What is this?
Replies: 19
Views: 1255

Re: Mortality and Expense Risk Charge???? What is this?

One of my banks instituted a new fee, buried in the fine print of one of their occasional multipage fee disclosure mailings. If they decide you have abandoned your account, they charge $99 for "escheating" your money to the State Treasurer's office. I thought they had found the absolutely ultimate i...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 20, 2018 4:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to Minimize Your Emergency Care Expenses
Replies: 109
Views: 7134

Re: How to Minimize Your Emergency Care Expenses

Thanks, WCI. Very interesting. I wonder if you'd have something to say about another problem, which is that as nearly as I can tell, in terms of procedure codes and so forth, doctors cannot predict exactly what they will be doing and thus the procedure codes are not known before the procedure has be...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 20, 2018 3:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What "efficient market" does and doesn't mean
Replies: 28
Views: 1496

Re: What "efficient market" does and doesn't mean

1) What is the data that would lead to the conclusion that the efficient market hypothesis has been falsified? Seriously falsified, not just slightly falsified? 2) What are the specific things that are impossible if the EMH is correct, but possible if it is incorrect? 3) How could a Norman Rockwell ...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 20, 2018 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's your U.S. : International ratio?
Replies: 104
Views: 25785

Re: What's your U.S. : International ratio?

Within stocks, 76% U.S., 24% international. With bonds, 100% U.S. Years of reading the forum led me to gradually nudge my allocation within stocks from 20% international up to about 25% international, over a time period of about a decade. Yes--led me to engage in bad market timing, because I upped t...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 20, 2018 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do Bogleheads reconcile efficient markets theory with Bitcoin?
Replies: 45
Views: 2170

Re: How do Bogleheads reconcile efficient markets theory with Bitcoin?

Oh, one detail. There is no "efficient markets theory ." There is an efficient markets hypothesis , EMH. An hypothesis is a possibility that is tested by observation and experiment. It's a term taken from science, but because it is impossible to perform experiments in financial economics, it is not ...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 20, 2018 5:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do Bogleheads reconcile efficient markets theory with Bitcoin?
Replies: 45
Views: 2170

Re: How do Bogleheads reconcile efficient markets theory with Bitcoin?

P.S. You can debate the validity of the theory, but the dividend discount theory of stock pricing does give a coherent rational intellectual framework for how a stock ought to be value. Crypto mavens: what is the crypto equivalent of the dividend discount theory? What pieces of statistical informat...
by nisiprius
Fri Jan 19, 2018 10:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do Bogleheads reconcile efficient markets theory with Bitcoin?
Replies: 45
Views: 2170

Re: How do Bogleheads reconcile efficient markets theory with Bitcoin?

P.S. You can debate the validity of the theory, but the dividend discount theory of stock pricing does give a coherent rational intellectual framework for how a stock ought to be valued. It is more of a thought experiment than a procedure because it depends on things like the future interest rates f...
by nisiprius
Fri Jan 19, 2018 10:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do Bogleheads reconcile efficient markets theory with Bitcoin?
Replies: 45
Views: 2170

Re: How do Bogleheads reconcile efficient markets theory with Bitcoin?

I don't think all markets are efficient. Mostly in Bogleheads we are talking about the securities markets, which have been established for over a century, a lot of participation, a lot of liquidity, a lot of regulation involving transparency of important information that affects valuations, speciali...
by nisiprius
Fri Jan 19, 2018 6:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity Freedom 2020 vs Vanguard Index Funds?
Replies: 16
Views: 1118

Re: Fidelity Freedom 2020 vs Vanguard Index Funds?

I have a 401k at my former employer that is 100% invested in the Fidelity Freedom 2020 fund. It's at about $125,000 now. Would rolling it over to a Vanguard IRA invested in Vanguard index funds offer any advantages? I am not sure whether as a former employee I could change investments within that 4...
by nisiprius
Fri Jan 19, 2018 4:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GE and the myth of "safe blue-chip stocks"
Replies: 121
Views: 14501

Re: GE and the myth of "safe blue-chip stocks"

...Last year, I found a company with 2.6x more cash than its market capitalization, and was trading at 0.4 of its book value. Understand what that means. It means a third-party seller could have paid the market price for the entire company, then immediately claim back the cash, and still be left wi...
by nisiprius
Fri Jan 19, 2018 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard US Investment Options Minus Top 10?
Replies: 20
Views: 1323

Re: Vanguard US Investment Options Minus Top 10?

...Don't short ETFs tend of have very high expense ratios?... It's worse than that. It's much, much, much worse than that. Inverse and leveraged ETFs are evil. They don't do what many investors think they do. They are completely unsuitable for any kind of long-term or buy-and-hold investing. They d...
by nisiprius
Fri Jan 19, 2018 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What will happen if everyone indexed?
Replies: 23
Views: 2268

Re: What will happen if everyone indexed?

I believe: If 100% of all stock investors index, literally all, with nobody but index funds buying or selling stocks, there will be chaos. If 90% of all retail (non-institutional) stock investors index, there will be no bad effects at all, none whatsoever, on the market or on indexers. The efficienc...
by nisiprius
Fri Jan 19, 2018 1:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What can I do to fight this ridiculous medical bill?
Replies: 86
Views: 4074

Re: What can I do to fight this ridiculous medical bill?

My main advice is "don't panic." Healthcare billing is so utterly screwed up that getting giant erroneous bills isn't rare, and you just can't tell how it will come out. Stay cool, start making phone calls--lots of them, don't yell, and start taking notes of the name of everyone you talked to, when,...
by nisiprius
Fri Jan 19, 2018 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the crypto market efficient?
Replies: 23
Views: 1269

Re: Is the crypto market efficient?

Given that I saw "market prices" for Bitcoin in the 14000's, the 13000's and the 12000's within seconds of each other in a Google search, at Coindesk, and a Winkdex I would say it is obviously not efficient. As to whether you or I can exploit that inefficiency, I would doubt it to beat heck. The peo...
by nisiprius
Fri Jan 19, 2018 9:21 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are ETFs Really That Safe?
Replies: 26
Views: 2083

Re: Are ETFs Really That Safe?

ETFs are normally lumped with index funds as fairly safe investments, but ETFs seem far more dangerous. Even Bogle warned about them What do other people think? I want exposure to robotics stocks through an ETF, but I'm not sure how happy I would be with my cash parked in one I hate ETFs. I don't u...
by nisiprius
Fri Jan 19, 2018 9:11 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: High Dividend Stocks as bond substitute?
Replies: 32
Views: 2039

Re: High Dividend Stocks as bond substitute?

Stocks are not bonds, period. Bonds are less risky than stocks, not because of any statistical patterns in past prices, but because they are a fundamentally different thing. A bond is a legally enforceable contract to pay specific numbers of dollars on specific days. It's a bill the issuer has to pa...
by nisiprius
Fri Jan 19, 2018 8:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard US Investment Options Minus Top 10?
Replies: 20
Views: 1323

Re: Vanguard US Investment Options Minus Top 10?

(Shrug) You have a specific personal opinion about four to ten specific stocks, which you think are dogs. The idea that there's something specially bad about the top ten isn't a popular theory, and I don't know of any Vanguard products that happen to be based on it. Vanguard has tools for implementi...
by nisiprius
Fri Jan 19, 2018 3:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Superstars of Wrestling Investing - Ultimate S&P500 Valuation
Replies: 13
Views: 1461

Re: Superstars of Wrestling Investing - Ultimate S&P500 Valuation

I don't mean to criticize mentioning this article--I like financial porn as much as the next guy--but its main value, if it has any, is to illustrate the point that at any given instant in time there are huge differences in the predictions of the best informed and most knowledgeable observers. Of co...
by nisiprius
Thu Jan 18, 2018 4:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $399 - New Course - Fire your Financial Advisor - By WhiteCoat Investor - Anyone?
Replies: 121
Views: 7203

Re: $399 - New Course - Fire your Financial Advisor - By WhiteCoat Investor - Anyone?

...No one was slamming Rick Ferri or Bill Bernstein for offering investment information and advice, as a business as well as on the forum... It's a tricky area, but as a matter of fact these posters were fairly punctilious about not identifying their businesses in their posts. Rick Ferri actually c...
by nisiprius
Thu Jan 18, 2018 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lets talk about some favorite index funds?
Replies: 32
Views: 1614

Re: Lets talk about some favorite index funds?

Hoggrad, that's not really the way it works. The first step is to decide on your "favorite" asset classes, the kind of thing you want to invest in. In my case--let's call them "chosen" rather than favorite--they are U.S. stocks, international stocks, U.S. bonds in general, and then U.S. inflation-in...
by nisiprius
Thu Jan 18, 2018 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $399 - New Course - Fire your Financial Advisor - By WhiteCoat Investor - Anyone?
Replies: 121
Views: 7203

Re: $399 - New Course - Fire your Financial Advisor - By WhiteCoat Investor - Anyone?

Well, the actual subject material seems to be how to create your own financial plan. The "Fire your Financial Advisor" is just the hook. I'm reading the material correctly, this course does not include any direct human interaction; it's basically a book with online interactive worksheets and tests. ...
by nisiprius
Thu Jan 18, 2018 8:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSP's F Fund outperforms the G Fund, so why is the G Fund favored?
Replies: 34
Views: 2258

Re: The F Fund outperforms the G Fund, so why is the G Fund favored?

I'm not a TSP participant, so I don't know what "all the negativity" is, maybe you could quote some actual examples. The F fund seems to be a Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate Bond Index fund, just like Vanguard Total Bond (but with an even lower expense ratio) which is one of the most commonly suggested...
by nisiprius
Wed Jan 17, 2018 7:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I sell Ishares and invest in index funds?
Replies: 5
Views: 455

Re: Should I sell Ishares and invest in index funds?

iShares is the family name of aeries of ETFs (exchange traded funds).They are (usually) a kind of index fund, but they have short ticker symbols that do not end in X. They are not single companies. They are funds of hundreds or thousands of stocks, that are bought and sold in a different way from mu...
by nisiprius
Wed Jan 17, 2018 6:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will a bond sell-off be the catalyst for a Major Market Correction?
Replies: 13
Views: 1389

Re: Will a bond sell-off be the catalyst for a Major Market Correction?

Bill Gross left PIMCO in 2014, and joined Janus to manage JUCIX, the Janus Henderson Global Unconstrained Bond Fund, with complete freedom to invest in the most promising bond issues whereever they might be found. VBMFX, The Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund is slavishly shackled to a bond index...
by nisiprius
Wed Jan 17, 2018 6:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will a bond sell-off be the catalyst for a Major Market Correction?
Replies: 13
Views: 1389

Re: Will a bond sell-off be the catalyst for a Major Market Correction?

I saw this article: http://money.cnn.com/2018/01/16/investing/bonds-market-stocks-inflation/index.html Some scary quotes: - A sell-off in bonds could be "the Armageddon event for this year," Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst for Think Markets UK, wrote in a report Tuesday. - Bill Gross, manager of ...
by nisiprius
Wed Jan 17, 2018 3:43 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 3278
Views: 947539

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

jacques Tati's Playtime. Watchable? Yes. A masterpiece? Not to me.
by nisiprius
Wed Jan 17, 2018 3:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?
Replies: 87
Views: 7640

Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

http://nordic.businessinsider.com/the-swedish-founder-of-bitcoin.com-one-of-the-largest-sites-in-the-industry-has-sold-all-his-bitcoins-because-its-as-good-as-useless--/ "USELESS" Stop buying Bitcoin! It's USELESS!!! Come buy my alternative, Bitcoin Cash! :shock: Which, it transpires, is also usele...
by nisiprius
Wed Jan 17, 2018 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A 4% move in the Dow and S&P in 12 days? Seems odd
Replies: 94
Views: 7443

Re: A 4% move in the Dow and S&P in 12 days? Seems odd

I believe I heard some market guru say that upside moves or toppings end when the bulk of the investing public (including new investors drawn to the excitement of the rising market?) runs out of new money to throw in Exactly what does that mean, and what data could you look at to find out whether i...
by nisiprius
Tue Jan 16, 2018 8:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets equities went sideways for 50 years 1920-70
Replies: 24
Views: 2093

Re: Emerging Markets equities went sideways for 50 years 1920-70

Since the term "emerging markets" wasn't coined or defined until 1981, and the first index wasn't created until IIRC 1988, and since when the index was created it only represented 1% of global cap weight, I doubt that the data is accurate, and even if accurate I doubt that it matters. It's like aski...
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 15, 2018 6:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyway to compare metrics of today w stock bubble in 2000
Replies: 26
Views: 2267

Re: Anyway to compare metrics of today w stock bubble in 2000

...In 1999, there was euphoria in the market. I don't get any sense of euphoria today. In fact, I'd say that until last year, this was the most unloved bull market I've ever heard of... I continue to think the difference is that the 1995-2000 bull market was piled on top of a solid and long-sustain...
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 15, 2018 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can the Schiller P/E ratio be used for tactical allocation?
Replies: 13
Views: 727

Re: Can the Schiller P/E ratio be used for tactical allocation?

I don't think the Shiller (no C in his name) CAPE can be used for anything except predicting the stock market crash of 2000-2002, once.

And now that everyone knows about it, it won't work again.
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 15, 2018 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying and Spending Bitcoin
Replies: 141
Views: 18040

Re: Buying and Spending Bitcoin

So you are saying that in addition to everything else, cryptocurrency users need to consider at least the possibility of a DOS attack intentionally directed at a particular currency? Grand.

Now, who might want to do a thing like that?