Search found 34254 matches

by nisiprius
Wed Feb 21, 2018 7:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2018 (Summary Edition)
Replies: 7
Views: 304

Re: Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2018 (Summary Edition)

I wonder why Switzerland? Because Credit Suisse ?... :oops: I yam stoopid. In penance, I will post this graphic I thought was neat (from 2015). The area of each country is proportional to its stock market capitalization. https://ei.marketwatch.com/Multimedia/2015/08/12/Photos/ZH/MW-DS043_worldm_201...
by nisiprius
Wed Feb 21, 2018 7:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Capital One 360 Money Market now at 1.5%
Replies: 5
Views: 496

Re: Capital One 360 Money Market now at 1.5%

I recently moved my emergency fund savings account to one ($30,000). I'm such a poor boglehead that I had it in the non-money market savings version they offer, getting 0.6% or something, and never really checked up on it. If you'd really checked up on it you might have noticed that the (regular) s...
by nisiprius
Wed Feb 21, 2018 6:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2018 (Summary Edition)
Replies: 7
Views: 304

Re: Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2018 (Summary Edition)

Hmmm... well, I see, you're right, my copy of the 2017 edition is indeed called "Summary Edition" but at least it had data for all 23 of the original "Triumph of the Optimists" countries, while the 2018 edition only has China, Japan, Switzerland (?), the United Kingdom, and the United States. Too ba...
by nisiprius
Wed Feb 21, 2018 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone subscribe to Socrates ?
Replies: 15
Views: 1404

Re: Anyone subscribe to Socrates ?

π? Ratio of circumference to diameter? 3.1415926535? That's not a joke? Only of a circle. Your demonstrated lack of precision makes you a poor fit for this line of work. :twisted: ...and only 10 places after the decimal. Any piker can take PI to several hundred places. Yeah, I used to be proud of k...
by nisiprius
Wed Feb 21, 2018 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which Inflation Rate Do You Use?
Replies: 19
Views: 997

Re: Which Inflation Rate Do You Use?

Shadowstats is bunk. And the longer they go on claiming that the true rate of inflation is 8-10% per year, the bunkier it gets. 1) First off, and most important, you can tell easily that they are not doing what they claim to be doing , by looking at their data circa 2006. Before 1983, the CPI used a...
by nisiprius
Wed Feb 21, 2018 10:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quantitative value for portfolio risk?
Replies: 8
Views: 306

Re: Quantitative value for portfolio risk?

For what it's worth, PortfolioVisualizer provides several useful measures of what the level of risk has been, in the past, for specific portfolios, over the number of years for which PortfolioVisualizer has data. For example, let's suppose someone says that tactical asset allocation funds managers a...
by nisiprius
Wed Feb 21, 2018 9:39 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What does it mean to be "in cash"?
Replies: 21
Views: 1222

Re: What does it mean to be "in cash"?

A dictionary offers:
A lexicographer at the American Heritage Dictionary wrote:cash (kăsh) n.
1. Money in the form of bills or coins; currency.
2. Liquid assets including bank deposits and marketable securities.
3. Money paid in currency or by check: paid in cash.
by nisiprius
Wed Feb 21, 2018 8:01 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: retirement calculator - most that I've seen are missing some things
Replies: 7
Views: 947

Re: retirement calculator - most that I've seen are missing some things

When I used the Fidelity Retirement Income Planner circa 2007, it definitely did allow me to enter year-by-year future dollar numbers for some things (rather than just plugging in one real-dollar number for all years). I remember the Fidelity advisor discussing how long we keep our cars, how much we...
by nisiprius
Tue Feb 20, 2018 9:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax loss harvesting and whether robo-investor fees are worth it
Replies: 27
Views: 1961

Re: Tax loss harvesting and whether robo-investor fees are worth it

Be sure to read How do I unwind this Wealthfront mess? before using Wealthfront. I thought that Wealthfront put investors in a fairly reasonable seven-or-eight ETF portfolio, with heavy use of Vanguard ETFs. Apparently... that's not what they do in taxable accounts. Wealthfront put this poster into ...
by nisiprius
Tue Feb 20, 2018 8:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard US Multifactor Funds Launch
Replies: 24
Views: 2678

Re: Vanguard US Multifactor Funds Launch

... (3) the size effect was never that large and historically in part probably more illiquidity premium than anything else, so bad runs are bound to happen... "Everyone" is saying now that the size effect was never that large, but that is not what people were saying just a few years ago. Clifford A...
by nisiprius
Tue Feb 20, 2018 7:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone subscribe to Socrates ?
Replies: 15
Views: 1404

Re: Anyone subscribe to Socrates ?

Who or what is Armstrong Econ. or Socrates, and why should I be interested in them? Hmmm... Wikipedia has an article on Martin A. Armstrong : Martin Arthur Armstrong (born November 1, 1949) is an economic forecaster who uses his own computer model based on pi. In 1999 Armstrong was charged with frau...
by nisiprius
Tue Feb 20, 2018 6:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do I unwind this Wealthfront mess?
Replies: 53
Views: 3552

Re: How do I unwind this Wealthfront mess?

...I think if you turn off Direct Indexing, they will gradually put your individual stocks back into the ETFs. https://support.wealthfront.com/hc/en-us/articles/115002972943-Can-I-opt-out-of-Advanced-Indexing- "I have some good news and some bad news. The good news is that" If you previously had Di...
by nisiprius
Tue Feb 20, 2018 5:42 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Blank line doubling
Replies: 24
Views: 1605

Re: Blank line doubling

What I thought was obvious, isn't. Clicking this link will send this page to an HTML validator. It show end tag errors for img and br tags. https://validator.w3.org/check/referer Ron There's obviously some kind of bug in phpBB. I saw something like this a year or so ago, by the way, but it only last...
by nisiprius
Tue Feb 20, 2018 5:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do I unwind this Wealthfront mess?
Replies: 53
Views: 3552

Re: How do I unwind this Wealthfront mess?

I still don't understand how you ended up with 124 holdings at Wealthfront. I've peeked at their suggested portfolios, and I was under the impression that a typical Wealthfront portfolio consisted of seven or eight ETFs, and mostly Vanguard ETFs at that.
by nisiprius
Tue Feb 20, 2018 1:11 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Blank line doubling
Replies: 24
Views: 1605

Re: Blank line doubling

1) Yes, I've noticed this, too, and haven't tried to diagnose it or characterize it. 2) Quick test. These three lines are not separated by blank lines in the "Post A Reply" edit field. 3) This is the third line. 1) These three lines... 2) are separated by single blank lines... 3) ...in the "Post a R...
by nisiprius
Tue Feb 20, 2018 8:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: J. Montier: US equity market is obscenely overvalued
Replies: 32
Views: 2763

Re: J. Montier: US equity market is obscenely overvalued

I can't remember any time when there haven't been some gurus saying that the stock market was overvalued ("irrational exuberance") and that it was undervalued ("Stock Prices are Still Far Too Low," WSJ, 1999, Glassman and Hassett). Adjectives like "obscenely" instantly remind me of David Freedman's ...
by nisiprius
Tue Feb 20, 2018 7:59 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Will REIT funds ever see another drawdown like 2008?
Replies: 51
Views: 4228

Re: Will REIT funds ever see another drawdown like 2008?

A perennial debate is whether REITs represent "real estate." It's a parallel to the question of whether people who want exposure to "gold" itself should be satisfied with mutual funds that invest in gold mining companies. It's possible to believe that real estate is a unique asset class of its own, ...
by nisiprius
Mon Feb 19, 2018 7:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Will REIT funds ever see another drawdown like 2008?
Replies: 51
Views: 4228

Re: Will REIT funds ever see another drawdown like 2008?

It's just ordinary common sense to assume that if it actually happened once, it could happen again. Nassim Nicholas Taleb has noted: Risk management professionals look in the past for information on the so-called ​worst-case scenario ​and use it to estimate future risks – this method is called “stre...
by nisiprius
Mon Feb 19, 2018 4:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding an ETF by it's Name
Replies: 24
Views: 769

Re: Understanding an ETF by it's Name

The dictionary definition of "international" is: 1. Of, relating to, or involving two or more nations: an international commission; international affairs. 2. Extending across or transcending national boundaries: international fame. An "international" investment is one that crosses a border. To a U.S...
by nisiprius
Mon Feb 19, 2018 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sell me on the benefits of an emergency fund
Replies: 119
Views: 6681

Re: Sell me on the benefits of an emergency fund

...And BTW, you do realize (as I and later radiowave have pointed out) that with recent inflation and rates of return on VMMXX (or similar funds), you are currently "losing money" by your own definition? No, my own definition of "losing money" is "decreasing number of dollars," and I think that is ...
by nisiprius
Mon Feb 19, 2018 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it "cute" to invest in sector funds?
Replies: 23
Views: 1443

Re: Is it "cute" to invest in sector funds?

Larry Swedroe, "Rules of Prudent Investing:" #17: Owning individual stocks and sector funds is more akin to speculating, not investing. The market compensates investors for risks that cannot be diversified away, like the risk of investing in stocks versus bonds. Investors shouldn't expect compensati...
by nisiprius
Mon Feb 19, 2018 9:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying and Spending Bitcoin
Replies: 194
Views: 23172

Re: Buying and Spending Bitcoin

Fortune gives a long, interesting, complicated, and credible account: Coinbase's Overcharging Glitch Is Both Worldpay and Visa's Fault . Oh so reminiscent of other technology finger-pointing arguments! --Coinbase said blamed Visa, because only Visa cardholders experienced the duplicate charges. --V...
by nisiprius
Mon Feb 19, 2018 8:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sell me on the benefits of an emergency fund
Replies: 119
Views: 6681

Re: Sell me on the benefits of an emergency fund

Over the maximum time period Morningstar can show me, an investment in the Vanguard Tax-Exempt Money Market Fund would have grown $10,000 on 6/30/1980 to $29,872.49 on 12/31/2017. The CPI was 82.50 at the end of June, 1980, and 247.910 at the end of December, 2017. Therefore $29,872.49 was equivalen...
by nisiprius
Mon Feb 19, 2018 8:03 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sell me on the benefits of an emergency fund
Replies: 119
Views: 6681

Re: Sell me on the benefits of an emergency fund

...Regarding "opportunity cost", you are arguing semantics... Yes. Indeed. I am. That is what I am doing. You can take your money market fund (interest taxable as ordinary income) and I'll take my balanced portfolio of (say) muni bonds (zero tax) and tax-efficient stock index funds or ETF's (modest...
by nisiprius
Mon Feb 19, 2018 7:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying and Spending Bitcoin
Replies: 194
Views: 23172

Re: Buying and Spending Bitcoin

[Added] But note in_reality's added remarks in the post following this one. [Further added]A Feb 16th item in Fortune judges that Coinbase's Overcharging Glitch Is Both Worldpay and Visa's Fault . If you made purchases between Jan. 22nd and Feb.11th this year using coinbase, you may have been overch...
by nisiprius
Sun Feb 18, 2018 10:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sell me on the benefits of an emergency fund
Replies: 119
Views: 6681

Re: Sell me on the benefits of an emergency fund

...First of all, your calculation needs to be done on an after-tax basis... When have you seen people quote returns on mutual funds or stock market "on an after-tax basis?" People frequently will say "the U.S. stock market has had a real return of 6.4% since 1900" without mentioning taxes, even in ...
by nisiprius
Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Switching to Gov't Bonds as you get closer to retirement?
Replies: 6
Views: 726

Re: Switching to Gov't Bonds as you get closer to retirement?

You probably can't purchase Admiral shares of the Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund, VBTLX, at Fidelity. You can, however, purchase Premium shares of the Fidelity U.S. Bond Index Fund, FSITX. If I wished to have an account at Fidelity, and not to have an account at Vanguard, I wouldn't hesitate ...
by nisiprius
Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixed Income is an Appropriate Term
Replies: 8
Views: 1292

Re: Fixed Income is an Appropriate Term

The income from a bond is a heck of a lot more "fixed" than the income from a dividend-paying stock.
by nisiprius
Sun Feb 18, 2018 8:46 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you wear a wedding band? [at a job interview]
Replies: 157
Views: 8780

Re: Do you wear a wedding band? [at a job interview]

Job interview? Wow. I never thought about it until this very instant. Of course as a software engineer my personal presentation was never of the essence, although I customarily wore shirtsleeves, tie, and dress slacks. I worked twice with recruiters and neither of them said anything about my appeara...
by nisiprius
Sun Feb 18, 2018 8:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Switching to Gov't Bonds as you get closer to retirement?
Replies: 6
Views: 726

Re: Switching to Gov't Bonds as you get closer to retirement?

I don't really have strong feelings about it. The idea that corporate bonds have "equity risk" is obviously true and obviously important for corporate "high yield" (low quality) bonds, but it isn't a very big effect for investment-grade bonds. They took about a 10% hit in 2008-2009. Do you feel that...
by nisiprius
Sun Feb 18, 2018 6:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sell me on the benefits of an emergency fund
Replies: 119
Views: 6681

Re: Sell me on the benefits of an emergency fund

...The dilemma n having a large cash position as an "emergency fund" is that it is not keeping up with inflation so over time you are losing money and putting a drag on overall assets... People who are trying to sell you mutual funds and securities often say something like this and I don't think it...
by nisiprius
Sun Feb 18, 2018 6:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you wear a wedding band? [at a job interview]
Replies: 157
Views: 8780

Re: Do you wear a wedding band?

Yes. Plain gold band. This is my third one; I lost two of them in amateur theatrical productions, it seems as if directors always have some reason why your character wouldn't wear one. I paid about the same amount for each of them--$30. My first had a brushed "Florentine" finish on it, and it was so...
by nisiprius
Sun Feb 18, 2018 1:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How long did it take you to get an official offer after clearing the interview process? Any delays?
Replies: 13
Views: 783

Re: How long did it take you to get an official offer after clearing the interview process? Any delays?

It's been different every time for me. I think the longest was in 1989, where I was told verbally that I had the job in November and did not receive an offer letter until January, i.e. about two months. I don't have a voice recording of what was said in November but it was something like "we're goin...
by nisiprius
Sun Feb 18, 2018 1:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the most the stock market has ever been down in 5 year period?
Replies: 19
Views: 2959

Re: What is the most the stock market has ever been down in 5 year period?

-100% for some smaller modern economies, and major historical nations. Thankfully, stock risk is bounded at - 100% so limits investor risk. WW1 and WW2 periods were over - 70% for many major European countries. Japan in 1980s, Argentina since 1900, a range of emerging market economies. Anyone looki...
by nisiprius
Sun Feb 18, 2018 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the most the stock market has ever been down in 5 year period?
Replies: 19
Views: 2959

Re: What is the most the stock market has ever been down in 5 year period?

If you assume a 5% real return and a 20% standard deviation, then the standard deviation of 5-year annualized returns would be 9%. This means that 1/6 of all 5-year periods would lose more than 4% annualized (18% cumulative), and 1/40 would lose more than 13% annualized (50% cumulative). These are ...
by nisiprius
Sun Feb 18, 2018 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sell me on the benefits of an emergency fund
Replies: 119
Views: 6681

Re: Sell me on the benefits of an emergency fund

I don't like postings that make challenges like "sell me..." I'm not interested in seeing whether my irresistible sales force is stronger than your immovable sales resistance. "Emergency fund" advice is, in reality, all over the map, and I have yet to see any data-based statistical data of what emer...
by nisiprius
Sun Feb 18, 2018 7:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which book for an 18 year old who is asking about investing?
Replies: 45
Views: 2791

Re: Which book for an 18 year old who is asking about investing?

The Only Investment Guide You'll Ever Need by Andrew Tobias. Solid, broad ranging financial advice and an easy read. That was my first thought, and although I don't think the book has aged well, it might still be my first recommendation. The blunt, simple stuff in the first few chapters, like "chai...
by nisiprius
Sun Feb 18, 2018 7:07 am
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Using math notation in Bogleheads posts
Replies: 11
Views: 1132

Re: Using math notation in Bogleheads posts

I wouldn't mind the ability to include really rudimentary things like superscripts in Bogleheads' posts. For many things, when I do need to post a formula, the reason is often related to the possibility of using a spreadsheet to do calculations, and I feel that an Excel "formula" is good enough. I a...
by nisiprius
Sat Feb 17, 2018 9:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Emerging Markets "lost decade" is over
Replies: 68
Views: 9686

Re: The Emerging Markets "lost decade" is over

...China is a country that thinks long term about its future - as an old civilization it tends not to be myopic and focus on short term gains. Furthermore, he political structure encourages long term thinking. If anything, your points favour investing in China... That's exactly what many in the U.S...
by nisiprius
Sat Feb 17, 2018 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETFs a cause of market turbulence?
Replies: 13
Views: 936

Re: Index funds a cause of market turbulence?

Before I read it, I'm going to express a casual suspicion: the author can be connected with a part of the investment industry that is threatened by the growth of index funds. Now let's see if I'm right. OK, I was wrong. Sorry. Shame on me. I won't delete this but I'll strike it out. I admire the rh...
by nisiprius
Sat Feb 17, 2018 10:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bberg: bond bulls say they'll have the last laugh
Replies: 16
Views: 2121

Re: Bberg: bond bulls say they'll have the last laugh

Both funds continually pump out interest in the form of fund dividends, and also experience fluctuations in capital value on top of that. In the case of bonds, capital appreciation is not usually the reason for owning an investment-grade bond fund. In an investment-grade bond fund there shouldn't, a...
by nisiprius
Sat Feb 17, 2018 9:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe's portfolio: does the fact that SC are expensive cause a problem?
Replies: 37
Views: 3234

Re: Larry Swedroe's portfolio: does the fact that SC are expensive cause a problem?

Is it "a fact" that small caps are expensive? I continually read statements in the forum and elsewhere that one asset class or another is "expensive" or "cheap" and I never understand how anybody knows.
by nisiprius
Fri Feb 16, 2018 7:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying and Spending Bitcoin
Replies: 194
Views: 23172

Re: Buying and Spending Bitcoin

With regard to cryptocurrencies handled at ATM machines, if I use the coinatmradar.com website recommended above, and set the scale so that it will give me a total for ATM machines in New York City, like this, https://imgur.com/teaurvC.png then I find a total of 164 ATM machines. If I uncheck Bitcoi...
by nisiprius
Fri Feb 16, 2018 6:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying and Spending Bitcoin
Replies: 194
Views: 23172

Re: Buying and Spending Bitcoin

Jonathan is correct, that I posted assertions without evidence in that posting. With regard to bitcoin ATMs, I was influenced by this article: I tried to buy $1 of bitcoin from a Las Vegas ATM — and it just proves how far bitcoin is from replacing regular money Some Las Vegas restaurants accept paym...
by nisiprius
Fri Feb 16, 2018 12:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to get child's skin in the game for college?
Replies: 135
Views: 6419

Re: How to get child's skin in the game for college?

College is what it is. Here are some random personal observations. It will be clear what I think but everyone is different. 1) A typical college load may be 15 hours/week actually spent in classes, and most colleges actually spell out that a student is normally expected to spend 2-3 hours of persona...
by nisiprius
Fri Feb 16, 2018 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying and Spending Bitcoin
Replies: 194
Views: 23172

Re: Buying and Spending Bitcoin

As Greyfox noted, Bitcoin was designed and up to maybe 2015 universally presented as a practical payment system, not a base technology on which others could build a practical payment system someday. It was supposed to directly compete with credit cards and PayPal online. What little real-world expos...
by nisiprius
Thu Feb 15, 2018 9:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the evidence against slice and dice?
Replies: 59
Views: 4495

Re: What is the evidence against slice and dice?

https://imgur.com/uWMneqM.png Nisi, Thanks for the contribution, but again the charts are only useful if you are entering on year x and selling everything on year y. Personally, I HATE using anything but rolling returns. They have the disadvantage of not being independent data points, but completel...
by nisiprius
Thu Feb 15, 2018 8:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: American Funds Growth Fund vs Index
Replies: 9
Views: 707

Re: American Funds Growth Fund vs Index

... Edit #2 I don't know why nisi posted about the AGTHX fund, I thought the OP was talking about GFACX They appear to be the same fund -- different classes maybe? Although AGTHX has an ER of 0.64% and GFACX has an ER or 1.44%.... My bad. They are different share classes of the same fund. I have up...
by nisiprius
Thu Feb 15, 2018 6:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: American Funds Growth Fund vs Index
Replies: 9
Views: 707

Re: American Funds Growth Fund vs Index

[NOTE: Corrected to use the share class mentioned by the original poster, GFACX, instead of AGTHX.--Nisi] Here's why he's talking about what GFACX, American Growth Fund of America, did over twenty years: because GFACX (blue) did not outperform either the S&P 500 index (orange) or the Vanguard Total ...