Search found 32729 matches

by nisiprius
Sat Jun 24, 2017 7:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Home Bias Blues: Investors really should get out more. The reasons for sticking to local stocks are fewer by the day."
Replies: 37
Views: 2617

Re: "Home Bias Blues: Investors really should get out more. The reasons for sticking to local stocks are fewer by the da

Is there any fundamental reasons to only own the stocks whose names start with the letters A through L? If it's a global market and all companies (at least big ones) get revenue from all over the world, then the decision to exclude them really falls into the A-L category. That said, is there any ma...
by nisiprius
Sat Jun 24, 2017 6:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts about tilting away from the sector you work in?
Replies: 25
Views: 1329

Re: Thoughts about tilting away from the sector you work in?

I think it's meaningless over-refinement. In one direction, certainly, a heavy tilt toward , not only the sector, but the company you work in--as with someone who puts half or all of their 401(k) in their company stock--is a bad idea. On the other hand, the sector breakdown of the Vanguard Total Sto...
by nisiprius
Sat Jun 24, 2017 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Crazy(?) Adviser Advice: "I don't believe in bonds"
Replies: 25
Views: 1880

Re: Crazy(?) Adviser Advice: "I don't believe in bonds"

1) You go to a doctor. He says "I don't believe in antibiotics. Also, I think you are healthy and don't need antibiotics." Maybe you are healthy and don't need antibiotics, but should you trust this doctor? 2) The question of whether young investors should be 100% stocks is debated . There...
by nisiprius
Sat Jun 24, 2017 3:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining a Bogle quote
Replies: 14
Views: 484

Re: Explaining a Bogle quote

He (obviously I think) has a valid point, but it's not clear how much weight to put on it or how much it should influence us. We shouldn't be deceived by the fact that we can click "sell" on our Total International holding, and it feels just like clicking "sell" on our Total Stoc...
by nisiprius
Sat Jun 24, 2017 11:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Home Bias Blues: Investors really should get out more. The reasons for sticking to local stocks are fewer by the day."
Replies: 37
Views: 2617

Re: "Home Bias Blues: Investors really should get out more. The reasons for sticking to local stocks are fewer by the da

...If you own 20% of your stock portfolio in total international fund and the other 80% of your stock portfolio in total stock market. How much international do you really own???????.. I'm not sure what you mean by that. My answers--I'm currently at 23.8% international according to Vanguard--are th...
by nisiprius
Sat Jun 24, 2017 10:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Advantages of Indexing Besides Low Cost
Replies: 14
Views: 1031

Re: Advantages of Indexing Besides Low Cost

A cap-weighted, total market index has the additional advantage of cancelling out speculative trades within the market, if this is what you want to do. A thought experiment: suppose that there is a day during which no money enters or leaves the market. Suppose that the only thing that happens is one...
by nisiprius
Sat Jun 24, 2017 8:01 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is VG Total Stock Market Index too concentrated?
Replies: 51
Views: 3350

Re: Is VG Total Stock Market Index too concentrated?

One quick observation. The knock on cap-weighted funds for being "concentrated" is total nonsense and spin, in my arrogant opinion... but... in any case... let's look at an alternative. The Schwab Fundamental U.S. Broad Market Index ETF, FNDB, which tracks the Russell RAFI Fundamental Broa...
by nisiprius
Sat Jun 24, 2017 6:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Survivorship bias and Portfolio Visualizer
Replies: 24
Views: 1528

Re: Survivorship bias and Portfolio Visualizer

I'd be glad to give some context behind the question: I have a coworker who has put 100% of his 401k contributions in a large cap index. As far as low expense ratio index funds go, we only have two available to us at our workplace: a large cap and a mid cap. I have several accounts between Roth IRA...
by nisiprius
Sat Jun 24, 2017 5:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Survivorship bias and Portfolio Visualizer
Replies: 24
Views: 1528

Re: Survivorship bias and Portfolio Visualizer

Oh, I think your questions can be answered fairly easily, then. I'd be glad to give some context behind the question: I have a coworker who has put 100% of his 401k contributions in a large cap index. As far as low expense ratio index funds go, we only have two available to us at our workplace: a la...
by nisiprius
Fri Jun 23, 2017 8:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [NY Times: Index fund evangelist is straying From His Gospel]
Replies: 31
Views: 2828

Re: Malkiel is reversing some of his views on passive investing

Malkiel must know in his heart that any exploitable inefficiencies will soon vanish. p. 284, A Random Walk Down Wall Street, 2014 edition: Some supporters ... argue... that smarter portfolios can be formed by a reliance on academic findings that there are many statistically significant predictable ...
by nisiprius
Fri Jun 23, 2017 4:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Survivorship bias and Portfolio Visualizer
Replies: 24
Views: 1528

Re: Survivorship bias and Portfolio Visualizer

I... think the discussion about delisting is more about how the return for the stock is handled in the month the company's stock is delisted from the exchange or index it's part of... CRSP has--I think twice? --modified its indices to do something about delisting bias. Until a few minutes ago, I ha...
by nisiprius
Fri Jun 23, 2017 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What's the Best Way to Invest in Cryptocurrencies?
Replies: 16
Views: 1542

Re: What's the Best Way to Invest in Cryptocurrencies?

The problem is: as an investor, what actions, exactly should I take when I become convinced that some broad technology has a real future ahead of it? This is a generic issue and has nothing to do with cryptocurrencies as such. Here are some of the problems: a) Doesn't everybody else know about it, e...
by nisiprius
Fri Jun 23, 2017 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Survivorship bias and Portfolio Visualizer
Replies: 24
Views: 1528

Re: Survivorship bias and Portfolio Visualizer

Random tangential thoughts. 1) When PV data is based on an actual index fund, then I figure, whatever it is, it must be appropriate because it's based on what I, myself, would actually be investing in. 2) The "survivorship bias" issue occurs when a data set includes only members that have ...
by nisiprius
Fri Jun 23, 2017 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why bonds when one's investment horizon is long?
Replies: 52
Views: 3010

Re: Why bonds when one's investment horizon is long?

I think the 5.5x statistic goes back to late 2016, so it could be off a little now. Hey they don't call me TBill for nothing, I am a Gary Shilling fan I'm sorry. I think it's nonsense. I really do. I've cited my source. Now please go find something written by Shilling that shows how he or anyone el...
by nisiprius
Fri Jun 23, 2017 8:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [NY Times: Index fund evangelist is straying From His Gospel]
Replies: 31
Views: 2828

Re: [NY Times: Index fund evangelist is straying From His Gospel]

Well, I haven't been able to bring myself to shell out for the 2014 edition of A Random Walk Down Wall Street but this is kind of interesting, based on what Amazon will show me through "look inside the book." Yes, the 2014 edition is strongly negative on "smart beta," by that nam...
by nisiprius
Fri Jun 23, 2017 8:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why bonds when one's investment horizon is long?
Replies: 52
Views: 3010

Re: Why bonds when one's investment horizon is long?

Cap gains is one reason. I believe 30-yr Treasuries have out-performed S&P 500 by 5.5x since 1980. Although it is tempting to think interest rates have bottomed, that is not really the correct way to think about it. The correct way to think about is, if the 30-year Treasury goes from 3% to 2% y...
by nisiprius
Fri Jun 23, 2017 7:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Home Bias Blues: Investors really should get out more. The reasons for sticking to local stocks are fewer by the day."
Replies: 37
Views: 2617

Re: "Home Bias Blues: Investors really should get out more. The reasons for sticking to local stocks are fewer by the da

Nisiprius, as far as I know most all International Stock funds are not currency hedged. Are there any out there? I am not aware of any myself. It seems that currencies are a big factor in US vs International Stock performance. When the dollar is strong, it seems like US Stocks predominate and when ...
by nisiprius
Fri Jun 23, 2017 7:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why bonds when one's investment horizon is long?
Replies: 52
Views: 3010

Re: Why bonds when one's investment horizon is long?

All past performance says that a 100% stock portfolio has better returns over long periods then any mix below 100% stocks. More accurately 100% stocks has higher expected returns than any mix below 100% stocks and also higher expected volatility of returns. Whether or not that is better depends on ...
by nisiprius
Thu Jun 22, 2017 6:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Home Bias Blues: Investors really should get out more. The reasons for sticking to local stocks are fewer by the day."
Replies: 37
Views: 2617

Re: "Home Bias Blues: Investors really should get out more. The reasons for sticking to local stocks are fewer by the da

Isn't currency risk one of the better reasons to invest in international markets? Why would you want to hedge that away? If your currency tanks and prices rise, it's nice to know your international investments are going up. Your currency is likely to go up and down with the economy, so putting all ...
by nisiprius
Thu Jun 22, 2017 5:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What do you say when you cancel an account that you only opened for bonus?
Replies: 64
Views: 4089

Re: What do you say when you cancel an account that you only opened for bonus?

Simple evasion. You don't need to give a reason and if they ask for one they may not even care--they may just be asking to slow you down and impede you on the off chance you'll change your mind, or give them an opening for an "account retention talk." Just say, basically, "I'm closin...
by nisiprius
Thu Jun 22, 2017 5:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sheltering in the TSP's G Fund...A bad idea?
Replies: 20
Views: 1543

Re: Sheltering in the TSP's G Fund...A bad idea?

The G Fund's investment objective is to produce a rate of return that is higher than inflation while avoiding exposure to credit (default) risk and market price fluctuations. So, the stated goal of the fund is to beat inflation, and so far, over thirty years it's met that stated goal. Do we questio...
by nisiprius
Thu Jun 22, 2017 5:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [NY Times: Index fund evangelist is straying From His Gospel]
Replies: 31
Views: 2828

Re: Burton Malkiel the passive gospel?

Burton Malkiel's never been a doctrinaire preacher of the passive gospel. A Random Walk Down Wall Street is a pun, referring just as much to its being a rambling overview of selected topics as it is to Eugene Fama and the efficient market theory. The 1973 edition contained an entire chapter entitled...
by nisiprius
Thu Jun 22, 2017 5:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Sending money and confirming receipt?
Replies: 18
Views: 1006

Re: Sending money and confirming receipt?

Thanks to all who replied, I'm all set. All I was trying to achieve was the mental comfort of getting something completely off the to-do list. And I find it surprising that I can send a $50 package and get a tracking number that tells me everything I need to know without asking anyone, but that I do...
by nisiprius
Thu Jun 22, 2017 5:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Sending money and confirming receipt?
Replies: 18
Views: 1006

Re: Sending money and confirming receipt?

All I'm trying to achieve is, for my mental comfort, to get the thing completely off my "to-do" list. Obviously I can ask the recipient if they got it, and if they say "yes," no problem. But sometimes people are busy, or traveling, or forget and need to be be reminded. In this pa...
by nisiprius
Thu Jun 22, 2017 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard restricts my account due to mail?
Replies: 41
Views: 2729

Re: Vanguard restricts my account due to mail?

Why not call them and correct it? Mistakes happen in every mega large company every day. Yet, we never hear about this sort of thing happening with Fidelity...... Just sayin! :D Well, OK. It was year ago, but Fidelity kept me hanging for about five weeks and four or five phone calls over a simple 4...
by nisiprius
Thu Jun 22, 2017 1:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Please explain how Medicare Billing works?
Replies: 62
Views: 3792

Re: Please explain how Medicare Billing works?

Pssst. By the way. Apple, penny, table. Also, DEFPOTEC.
by nisiprius
Thu Jun 22, 2017 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sheltering in the TSP's G Fund...A bad idea?
Replies: 20
Views: 1543

Re: Sheltering in the TSP's G Fund...A bad idea?

Let's look at this statement carefully: If safety is earning a return to keep pace with inflation, it’s not so hot.... Financial planner Arthur Stein said that having most or all of your retirement nest-egg cash in the G fund is bad business, because over time, its purchasing power will be overtaken...
by nisiprius
Thu Jun 22, 2017 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why bonds when one's investment horizon is long?
Replies: 52
Views: 3010

Re: Why bonds when one's investment horizon is long?

1) Because the notion that stocks are safe if the investment horizon is long is an overly simplistic statement of a complicated reality. 2) Because we need to consider our own behavior. Suppose investor A says "I will not sell if my portfolio value falls 50%," and his portfolio value falls...
by nisiprius
Thu Jun 22, 2017 12:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Sending money and confirming receipt?
Replies: 18
Views: 1006

Sending money and confirming receipt?

Suppose I want to send someone a nontrivial amount of money, and, without relying on anybody to get back to me, I want to receive confirmation that they have received and deposited the money. Not that they have received a piece of paper, but the money itself. a) If I send a bank check, the paper tra...
by nisiprius
Thu Jun 22, 2017 10:17 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What do you say when you cancel an account that you only opened for bonus?
Replies: 64
Views: 4089

Re: What do you say when you cancel an account that you only opened for bonus?

Simple evasion. You don't need to give a reason and if they ask for one they may not even care--they may just be asking to slow you down and impede you on the off chance you'll change your mind, or give them an opening for an "account retention talk." Just say, basically, "I'm closing...
by nisiprius
Thu Jun 22, 2017 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: HOW MUCH active management is right for you? :(
Replies: 37
Views: 2571

Re: Vanguard: HOW MUCH active management is right for you? :(

My personal honest not-too-carefully-researched feeling is that there's some evidence that active managers can get something like 0.50%-0.75% of alpha, although it's not clear to me what set of investors they are taking it away from. Against that, we find that actively managed funds seem to keep all...
by nisiprius
Thu Jun 22, 2017 9:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Research Paper: Historical returns of the Global Market Portfolio
Replies: 5
Views: 733

Re: New Research Paper: Historical returns of the Global Market Portfolio

...Nobelist Bill Sharpe recommends the global market portfolio as a starting point for investors... Are you sure? I'd appreciate it if you could dig up Sharpe's own exact words and see if what he says amounts to a recommendation , i.e. "you should do this." The reason I'm asking is that I...
by nisiprius
Thu Jun 22, 2017 8:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Replacing bonds with actively managed real estate
Replies: 19
Views: 1337

Re: Replacing bonds with actively managed real estate

The thing about a bond is not that it provides an income stream. Most investments do. The thing about a bond is that it is (often) a legal contract to pay you specific numbers of dollars on specific calendar dates , and the issuer has to pay it just like any other bill. To stay in business, a corpor...
by nisiprius
Wed Jun 21, 2017 8:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: HOW MUCH active management is right for you? :(
Replies: 37
Views: 2571

Re: Vanguard: HOW MUCH active management is right for you? :(

I understand and agree with all the logic favoring index funds. However, what do we say about PRIMECAP fund? It's performance has been too good over the years to attribute it to "just good luck". What do we say about the Legg Mason Value Trust under Bill Miller's management, over the peri...
by nisiprius
Wed Jun 21, 2017 4:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 20 pct bonus on fixed index annuity
Replies: 22
Views: 1038

Re: 20 pct bonus on fixed index annuity

...I went to this simply because my wife wanted a free dinner at a good local restaurant... ...and in return, they got you hooked enough to start wondering about the product and asking about it online. Even if you don't buy it yourself, that's a reasonably effective sales pitch and well worth the c...
by nisiprius
Wed Jun 21, 2017 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: HOW MUCH active management is right for you? :(
Replies: 37
Views: 2571

Re: Vanguard: HOW MUCH active management is right for you? :(

My bad but I don't have time to look at it carefully right now: there is a link to a paper, Making the Implicit Explicit: A Framework for the Active-Passive Decision which I should read in detail. However, still think one sentence from the paper tells me everything I need to know: Per our research, ...
by nisiprius
Wed Jun 21, 2017 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: HOW MUCH active management is right for you? :(
Replies: 37
Views: 2571

Vanguard: HOW MUCH active management is right for you? :(

https://s17.postimg.org/fky3abeq7/Captura_de_pantalla_2017-06-21_a_las_4.40.06_PM.png Let me be clear, this is nothing new, Vanguard has offered actively managed funds since it was founded and has been explicitly suggesting a mix of active and passive investments for a very long time--I'm thinking ...
by nisiprius
Wed Jun 21, 2017 3:37 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How many tech devices do you have?
Replies: 74
Views: 2979

Re: How many tech devices do you have?

Related question: if you get up at night, how many LED pilot lights can you see glowing in your house? Including e.g. the ones in the smoke detector that only flash once a minute or so. I haven't made a formal count, but I'm sure it's an average of well over ten per room.
by nisiprius
Wed Jun 21, 2017 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Home Bias Blues: Investors really should get out more. The reasons for sticking to local stocks are fewer by the day."
Replies: 37
Views: 2617

Re: "Home Bias Blues: Investors really should get out more. The reasons for sticking to local stocks are fewer by the da

Finally, according to a 2012 Vanguard paper, Considerations for investing in non-U.S. equities , 1) According to data from the Investment Company Institute (2011), international equity funds constitute 27% of the total equity allocation of U.S. mutual fund investors. 2) On average, dedicating 30% of...
by nisiprius
Wed Jun 21, 2017 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Home Bias Blues: Investors really should get out more. The reasons for sticking to local stocks are fewer by the day."
Replies: 37
Views: 2617

Re: "Home Bias Blues: Investors really should get out more. The reasons for sticking to local stocks are fewer by the da

Avoiding currency risk is another justification that no longer holds water. In recent years, we have seen a variety of ETFs offering exposure to various foreign stock markets that manage currency risk on investors' behalf. Some hedge this risk outright; others hedge away a portion of the risk, whil...
by nisiprius
Wed Jun 21, 2017 7:22 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is a Total Stock Market Index enough...
Replies: 22
Views: 2286

Re: Is a Total Stock Market Index enough...

There are a huge number of different portfolios of which one could say "they are reasonable," "they are not crazy," "they are fine." Because of the way the stock market is, and the size and unpredictability of stock fluctuations, the past ten years the differences in re...
by nisiprius
Tue Jun 20, 2017 12:25 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: is luxury car a smarter purchase?
Replies: 101
Views: 5739

Re: is luxury car a smarter purchase?

If you want a luxury car and you can afford one, get one. Of course, do the tradeoff on how much you think you will enjoy it versus spending the same money in some different way. Don't kid yourself for an instant that it's going to be cheaper. Of course it isn't. Don't be silly. Use your common sens...
by nisiprius
Tue Jun 20, 2017 7:34 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need to find Loaded Index Funds
Replies: 64
Views: 3428

Re: Need to find Loaded Index Funds

Rydex offers an S&P 500 index fund, RYSOX, with a 4.75% load and a 1.55% expense ratio. It cannot possibly be a good option to pay a 1.55% expense ratio for an index fund, but it is indeed a loaded index fund. Pretty awful. It would be better to use Class A American Funds. Yes, I was thinking t...
by nisiprius
Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tripped on this this morning - pros and cons? [HELOC as emergency fund]
Replies: 22
Views: 3308

Re: Tripped on this this morning - pros and cons? [HELOC as emergency fund]

Debt is not the same thing as cash. Naturally, a bank wants you to think that a HELOC will always be there. Why wouldn't they? Why would they want to call attention to unpleasant possibilities like the value of your house tanking, or the bank getting into trouble and not having money to lend? Have ...
by nisiprius
Mon Jun 19, 2017 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: international mutual funds [good or bad investment?]
Replies: 7
Views: 596

Re: international mutual funds [good or bad investment?]

Jack Bogle did not think International mutual funds were a good investment. Does this forum still feel this way. Thanks bsbgrafton 1) The consensus in this forum has always tended to favor holding some international stock funds. 2) International stock investing is probably the point on which you ar...
by nisiprius
Mon Jun 19, 2017 3:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Changing from Index to ETF
Replies: 5
Views: 530

Re: Changing from Index to ETF

I don't think there's any difference at all that could possibly be enough to matter. Don't get hung up on the mental trap of saying "since they are different , one must be better , therefore I must figure out which it is." Better to just say "I'm doing it because, eh, why not. One les...
by nisiprius
Mon Jun 19, 2017 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need to find Loaded Index Funds
Replies: 64
Views: 3428

Re: Need to find Loaded Index Funds

Due to the new Fiduciary Rule, my firm no longer allows me to invest in no load funds, The contorted logic which would have to go into that sort of reading of the fiduciary rule is literally beyond my comprehension. I'll take a swing at this: "We put all of our clients into loaded funds becaus...
by nisiprius
Mon Jun 19, 2017 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need to find Loaded Index Funds
Replies: 64
Views: 3428

Re: Need to find Loaded Index Funds

...Due to the new Fiduciary Rule, my firm no longer allows me to invest in no load funds,... That definitely sounds like a fib to me and I hope you will press them for the details. I definitely think your best option is to invest in ETFs. Rydex offers an S&P 500 index fund, RYSOX, with a 4.75% ...
by nisiprius
Mon Jun 19, 2017 7:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Global Stocks - Legacy of the Great Recession?
Replies: 21
Views: 2093

Re: Global Stocks - Legacy of the Great Recession?

Returns of asset classes compared to each other change over time. Correlation between asset classes change over time also. In the decade prior to the 2008 financial crisis, global equity market correlations were increasing — but since then, the trend has been toward lower correlations (chart below)...

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