Search found 33259 matches

by nisiprius
Sun Oct 22, 2017 9:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Installing a slide inside a home?
Replies: 28
Views: 1145

Re: Installing a slide inside a home?

Fire safety? Does it meet requirements for being able to escape? Is there any risk that a firefighter might not know the slide was there and miss a frightened kid hiding there?
by nisiprius
Sun Oct 22, 2017 9:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are all Vanguard Funds an Index Fund?
Replies: 14
Views: 705

Re: Are all Vanguard Funds an Index Funds?

How can you tell what index , VG index fund is mirroring? Go to Vanguard.com. Type a ticker symbol or fund name in to the "search the site or get a quote" box. I'm going to use VPACX. Wait for a list of choices to drop down--usually only one if you typed a ticker symbol. Click on it. That gets you ...
by nisiprius
Sun Oct 22, 2017 8:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are all Vanguard Funds an Index Fund?
Replies: 14
Views: 705

Re: Are all Vanguard Funds an Index Funds?

1) Go to Vanguard.com. 2) Investing, Vanguard Mutual Funds. 3) "Browse Vanguard funds by asset class." Notice that it says "128 matching funds." 4) Click "Filter. 5) Un-check the box that says "Index" and leave "Active" checked. "See funds." 6) Now it shows "66 matching funds," i.e. 66 actively mana...
by nisiprius
Sun Oct 22, 2017 8:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: After Market Beta’s Long Run Do you Consider Diversifying Into Other Factors?
Replies: 21
Views: 1238

Re: After Market Beta’s Long Run Do you Consider Diversifying Into Other Factors?

Look, all you are buying in the supermarket is "food." Don't you think you should be diversifying into motor oil, fidget spinners, and romance novels? Given the rest of your reasoning here isn't that last question disingenuous? I mean, I can explain why food is helpful in providing me nutrients and...
by nisiprius
Sun Oct 22, 2017 5:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mutual Fund "share price"
Replies: 22
Views: 827

Re: Mutual Fund "share price"

A related issue is the surprising number of people who casually enter bond fund ticker symbols into online tools designed to show stock prices, and conclude that over the past twenty years, Total Stock (VTSMX) made twenty-five times as much money as Total Bond (VBMFX). I honestly think that ignoring...
by nisiprius
Sun Oct 22, 2017 2:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Am i missing anything without REITs..
Replies: 5
Views: 513

Re: Am i missing anything wihtout REITs..

I'm not sure which "index fund" you are talking about, but the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund mirrors the "market portfolio," the entire portfolio of $25 trillion or so worth of stocks that are traded in the stock market itself, with the same weights as the market holds them. There are many ...
by nisiprius
Sun Oct 22, 2017 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIAA Trouble [NY Times: TIAA pushes clients to high fee products]
Replies: 31
Views: 2685

Re: TIAA Trouble [NY Times: TIAA pushes clients to high fee products]

Confirmation of what I'd long suspected but hoped was just paranoia. Fortunately I am retired, converted my TIAA Traditional to "lifetime payout" and liquidated other variable annuity "accounts" and replaced them with Vanguard mutual funds. TIAA ain't what it used to be. All little incremental thing...
by nisiprius
Sun Oct 22, 2017 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: After Market Beta’s Long Run Do you Consider Diversifying Into Other Factors?
Replies: 21
Views: 1238

Re: After Market Beta’s Long Run Do you Consider Diversifying Into Other Factors?

P.S. to put it another way, just grabbing something from Wikipedia, The Fama–French three-factor model explains over 90% of the diversified portfolios returns, compared with the average 70% given by the CAPM (within sample). Of course, "within sample" means "in the past." But on the face of it, that...
by nisiprius
Sun Oct 22, 2017 10:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: After Market Beta’s Long Run Do you Consider Diversifying Into Other Factors?
Replies: 21
Views: 1238

Re: After Market Beta’s Long Run Do you Consider Diversifying Into Other Factors?

The "market" factor is not just another factor like the others. Although it's an idealization and an oversimplification, I can see obvious, convincing reasons why stocks ought to make money--they are an indirect claim on business profits. I can see obvious reasons why bonds ought to make money--they...
by nisiprius
Sat Oct 21, 2017 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Just starting checking out Bonds. Head hurts a bit.
Replies: 12
Views: 1261

Re: Just starting checking out Bonds. Head hurts a bit.

...I was a little surprised not only at the expense ratio of some Bonds but how some had very poor performance within the past few years... How did you measure performance? The annual total return numbers are OK, but sometimes people look at price charts. Typically, you buy a bond for about $1,000,...
by nisiprius
Sat Oct 21, 2017 6:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 3-fund of SPDRs is better than of Vanguard ETF (lower ER)?
Replies: 13
Views: 939

Re: 3-fund of SPDRs is better than of Vanguard ETF (lower ER)?

P.S. Vanguard's competitors--well, Schwab and State Street, anyway--have clearly decided to undercut Vanguard by one basis point. Sure, arguably that makes them "better than Vanguard" in that regard, but it's very reminiscent of the cigarette maker, during the era when 100-mm-long cigarettes were a ...
by nisiprius
Sat Oct 21, 2017 6:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 3-fund of SPDRs is better than of Vanguard ETF (lower ER)?
Replies: 13
Views: 939

Re: 3-fund of SPDRs is better than of Vanguard ETF (lower ER)?

The answer is straightforward but not obvious. Speaking for myself... the difference in cost is so tiny that for me it doesn't outweigh my slight, irrational, "fan" preference for Vanguard. The trickiest thing here, by the way, is that I think you goofed on your ticker symbols and expense ratios. Fo...
by nisiprius
Sat Oct 21, 2017 2:29 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Turn fridge off when gone or leave it running?
Replies: 40
Views: 48101

Re: Turn fridge off when gone or leave it running?

I vividly remember one such "incident" in July of 1967, fresh out of college and learning computer programming for my new job. Programs, then, were input on IBM punched cards done at a keypunch machine. As I finished my "deck", and got up from the keypunch, I turned off the keypunch machine. This o...
by nisiprius
Sat Oct 21, 2017 1:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Turn fridge off when gone or leave it running?
Replies: 40
Views: 48101

Re: Turn fridge off when gone or leave it running?

Hah! Reminds me of the endless discussions about whether it is better to turn a computer off when not in use or leave it running. Many years ago I worked for two scientists, each of whom had a PDP-11, and one of them was insistent that it not be turned off, ever. Based on an assumption that turning ...
by nisiprius
Sat Oct 21, 2017 1:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Letter from CC company (Discover) re: current income
Replies: 30
Views: 5555

Re: Letter from CC company (Discover) re: current income

I keep getting asked this by Capital One. They say that they "need" it so that they can raise my credit line. Since I don't want them to raise my credit line, I keep ignoring it.
by nisiprius
Fri Oct 20, 2017 5:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has the general public ever been correct about market crashes?
Replies: 40
Views: 2643

Re: Has the general public ever been correct about market crashes?

How do you measure what "the general public" thinks? In general, the idea of doing the opposite of what "everyone else" is doing is called "contrarian investing," and it's one of various strategies people follow. None of them is the magic key to wealth. A lot of people believe in "momentum investing...
by nisiprius
Fri Oct 20, 2017 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the current cryptocurrency market a bubble in the making?
Replies: 10
Views: 635

Re: Is the current cryptocurrency market a bubble in the making?

I don't know and I don't care. I wouldn't "invest" any significant sum of money in any, single, undiversified "next big thing" technology asset. It's basically a lottery. Some people will invest and some of them will win big. Some will and lose their shirt. Along the way, there will be endless stori...
by nisiprius
Fri Oct 20, 2017 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: One Total Market Index Fund vs Three Different Cap Index Fund
Replies: 14
Views: 1227

Re: One Total Market Index Fund vs Three Different Cap Index Fund

So, let's use a tool I've gotten very fond of to compare the past behavior of your chosen portfolio and see how it would have been different if you'd used a total market fund instead of your three-way slice and dice. It's a no-cost web tool and whenever I've done any cross-checking it seems reliable...
by nisiprius
Fri Oct 20, 2017 9:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: One Total Market Index Fund vs Three Different Cap Index Fund
Replies: 14
Views: 1227

Re: One Total Market Index Fund vs Three Different Cap Index Fund

What you're doing is reasonable. You should probably not change it in a hurry if you're happy with it. I'm a "total market" type myself. "What rebalancing really does for you" is a frequently discussed topic around here. Nobody is ever going to agree. Let me quickly lay out some of the "sides" in th...
by nisiprius
Thu Oct 19, 2017 8:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Amazon Prime - Decline in Delivery Service?
Replies: 54
Views: 4243

Re: Amazon Prime - Decline in Delivery Service?

Oddly enough, just today, a package ordered via Amazon Prime, "2-day delivery," that was scheduled to arrive today--didn't: https://s1.postimg.org/8s5wi33efj/Captura_de_pantalla_2017-10-19_a_las_9.21.28_PM.png It is probably not a coincidence that the carrier is neither UPS or USPS, but "AMZL US." N...
by nisiprius
Thu Oct 19, 2017 6:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Investment Lessons From The 21st Century"
Replies: 16
Views: 2004

Re: "Investment Lessons From The 21st Century"

Here's another surprising thing. Roth mentions that from 2000 through 2016 inclusive, the average annualized growth rate for Total Bond was 4.98%. That means a $10,000 investment in Total Bond would have grown to $22,846. Over the same period of time, a $1,000 United States Series I savings bond gre...
by nisiprius
Thu Oct 19, 2017 1:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a crash coming soon?
Replies: 64
Views: 5325

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Hi everyone! Rather new to the forum here. If im not wrong, bogleheads believe that: 1. There's no way to predict what will happen to the market in the short term 2. Past history is not an absolute indicator for future performance/what will happen But just by looking at this very "unscientifically"...
by nisiprius
Thu Oct 19, 2017 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dow more than tripled in 8 years
Replies: 6
Views: 938

Re: Dow more than tripled in 8 years

All of the commentary about how well the stock market has done "since 2009" really should take into account the fact that it had fallen down a well, nearly half of that gain was just climbing out. The great bull market of 1995-2000 was not climbing out of a well. The bull market followed a period of...
by nisiprius
Thu Oct 19, 2017 7:59 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: low risk, low fee fund for older investor?
Replies: 6
Views: 541

Re: low risk, low fee fund for older investor?

Broadly speaking, for "ordinary" kinds of mutual funds such as you might find in your 401(k), risk and return depend mostly on the particular asset class the fund is holding. No mutual fund that is 100% stocks is going to be much less risky than any other 100% stocks fund, stocks are stocks, for a f...
by nisiprius
Thu Oct 19, 2017 7:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: low risk, low fee fund for older investor?
Replies: 6
Views: 541

Re: low risk, low fee fund for older investor?

Fees are definitely worth looking at. They are what they care, you can do the math and calculate the money. Reducing expense ratios is (in my opinion) not life-transforming, and exercises that purport to show you that they are, by compounding out for twenty years, are somewhat misleading--like other...
by nisiprius
Wed Oct 18, 2017 7:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is a doctor's practice one of the safest and most profitable businesses?
Replies: 58
Views: 3481

Re: Is a doctor's practice one of the safest and most profitable businesses?

Another point, which I can't speak to from personal experience, is that doctors, veterinarians, etc. can and do sell their practices. Indeed, the business model for a sole-proprietorship practice pretty much assumes that you can sell the practice at the end, otherwise it isn't a very good business ...
by nisiprius
Wed Oct 18, 2017 5:55 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How many miles/years do you keep your car?
Replies: 108
Views: 7008

Re: How many miles/years do you keep your car?

We kept our last car from 2005 to 2016 at which point it had 140,000 miles... and no important problems. For whatever it's worth, we didn't want to wait for problems, and we wanted to get some of the new safety and driver-assist features--the 2005 didn't have vehicle stability control, for example. ...
by nisiprius
Wed Oct 18, 2017 5:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Using Jack Bogle's own words against him when it comes to international investing"
Replies: 30
Views: 3628

Re: "Using Jack Bogle's own words against him when it comes to international investing"

... Overseas investments - holdings in the corporations of other nations - are not essential, nor even necessary, to a well-diversified portfolio. For investors who disagree - and there are some valid reasons for global investing - I would recommend limiting international investments to a maximum o...
by nisiprius
Wed Oct 18, 2017 3:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is a doctor's practice one of the safest and most profitable businesses?
Replies: 58
Views: 3481

Re: Is a doctor's practice one of the safest and most profitable businesses?

Goldenyou says I've got this completely wrong, see below . Another point, which I can't speak to from personal experience, is that doctors, veterinarians, etc. can and do sell their practices. Indeed, the business model for a sole-proprietorship practice pretty much assumes that you can sell the pra...
by nisiprius
Wed Oct 18, 2017 11:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is a doctor's practice one of the safest and most profitable businesses?
Replies: 58
Views: 3481

Re: Is a doctor's practice one of the safest and most profitable businesses?

I'm not a doctor. But two examples from within my circle of medical acquaintances may show why I doubt that a doctor's career or income is particularly "safe." 1) A urologist who was a star in a community hospital who did prostatectomies. That form of surgery has been revolutionized by so-called "ro...
by nisiprius
Wed Oct 18, 2017 7:07 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Why so many "reversed" pictures?
Replies: 14
Views: 2326

Re: Why so many "reversed" pictures?

It does seem to me that more and more "news" stories, even from legitimate real-news sources, especially on the Internet, are illustrating stories with rather generic stock photos or "file photos." I guess, in the minds of... someone, it is absolutely necessary for every story to have a picture to i...
by nisiprius
Tue Oct 17, 2017 2:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Currency risk?
Replies: 42
Views: 2248

Re: Currency risk?

...Fourth, I question the motives of those believing in a 0% international allocation (or 5% or 10%). While many are simply ignorant, and others cite reasons such as currency risk for their home country bias, for a few, is their bias ultimately... bias, a behavioral error? Are some inherently biase...
by nisiprius
Tue Oct 17, 2017 2:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is there really a lithium battery in a USB-C-to-micro-USB adapter?
Replies: 8
Views: 631

Is there really a lithium battery in a USB-C-to-micro-USB adapter?

So I bought a Samsung Micro USB to USB-C adapter. It came in a box so big I couldn't even think what I'd ordered, and the box had a warning on the side, "CAUTION: Lithium Ion batteries. Do not load or transport package if damaged." Inside was this. The front and back sides of the adapter, a dime to ...
by nisiprius
Tue Oct 17, 2017 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard expects "decent sized correction" soon, sometime, maybe later
Replies: 68
Views: 6919

Re: Vanguard expects "decent sized correction" soon

Oh, how I wish he had phrased it as "Sooner or later a correction is coming, and it may be a decent one."

(I.e. echoing Roger Babson's 1929 declaration that "Sooner or later a crash is coming, and it may be terrific.")
by nisiprius
Tue Oct 17, 2017 6:26 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: WPA2 protocol used by vast majority of wifi connections has been broken
Replies: 61
Views: 5331

Re: WPA2 protocol used by vast majority of wifi connections has been broken

1) It does appear that the attacker needs to be within WiFi range of my router. You can interpret that as "attacker need only be within WiFi range of my router" or "attacker must be within WiFi range of my router," but either way it does mean that the degree of risk depends on who you are and where ...
by nisiprius
Mon Oct 16, 2017 9:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: ‘Sure Things’ Check-In
Replies: 8
Views: 1866

Re: Swedroe: ‘Sure Things’ Check-In

I love his "sure things" articles.

It is so difficult not to be sucked in when "everybody" is sure about something. It's really important to remember just how often these broad consensus, strong conviction predictions turn out to be completely wrong.
by nisiprius
Mon Oct 16, 2017 1:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Currency risk?
Replies: 42
Views: 2248

Re: Currency risk?

...It's probably not a big error for a US investor to have zero weight in global equities... Now, that is the key point, I think. John C. Bogle has written that "Successful investing involves doing just a few things right and avoiding serious mistakes." Nobody has ever been able to convince me that...
by nisiprius
Mon Oct 16, 2017 12:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help me understand what happens with the new law and ACA subsidies
Replies: 80
Views: 5650

Re: Help me understand what happens with the new law and ACA subsidies

Not to get onto an actual medical topic, I think I can say that "refraction" means measuring your eyes to see if you need new glasses and determining the prescription for them. As you probably know Medicare does not pay for eyeglasses (or hearing aids!) and therefore, somewhat logically, doesn't pay...
by nisiprius
Mon Oct 16, 2017 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fellow TDA bogleheads [TDA dropping Vanguard ETFs from commission-free list]
Replies: 333
Views: 17950

Re: TD Ameritrade Drops Vanguard From Revamped Commission-Free ETF Lineup TD Ameritrade will nearly triple its overall c

(Shrug) I don't know what goes on behind the scenes to make ETFs commission-free or mutual funds "no transaction fee" at a brokerage. For mutual funds, I think the fund company pays the brokerage a kickback fee of some kind. I doubt that Vanguard is willing to do this. Anyway, commission-free ETFs a...
by nisiprius
Mon Oct 16, 2017 10:32 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help me understand what happens with the new law and ACA subsidies
Replies: 80
Views: 5650

Re: Help me understand what happen with the new law and ACA subsidies

...The answer was they would cover something if it was necessary . The doctor's office told me that Medicare would not pay for some part of the procedure. So how am I to know if it is necessary? I had none of this bureaucracy with my employer-funded healthcare. They paid for everything that my prim...
by nisiprius
Mon Oct 16, 2017 9:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Currency risk?
Replies: 42
Views: 2248

Re: Currency risk?

...I just don't see any evidence that currency risk is a one way street... Nobody ever said that it was. That is a straw man argument. The argument is that currency risk a) does not add return, and b) does add risk. Therefore, it reduces the risk-adjusted return of foreign investments. I, as a U.S....
by nisiprius
Mon Oct 16, 2017 6:53 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why not CDs instead of Short Term Bonds or TIPS
Replies: 24
Views: 3060

Re: Why not CDs instead of Short Term Bonds or TIPS

In my 401k, I maintain some of my "safe" portfolio. This typically consists of taxable bond funds, TIPS funds, etc. This is part of my LP. Larry would of course recommend TIPS or ST Treasuries as part of this allocation. I recognize that TIPS are to protect from "unexpected" inflation. Of course, t...
by nisiprius
Sun Oct 15, 2017 8:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help me understand what happens with the new law and ACA subsidies
Replies: 80
Views: 5650

Re: Help me understand what happens with the new law and ACA subsidies

Moneybags1 wrote:
Sat Oct 14, 2017 12:57 pm
...I searched high and low and every media outlet is saying everyone in ACA is screwed...
This article in this media outlet is fairly heavy on information. The title summarizes the content.
Why [killing] Obamacare insurance subsidies might not matter much.
by nisiprius
Sun Oct 15, 2017 4:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Discipline Trumps Distraction
Replies: 3
Views: 999

Re: Larry Swedroe: Discipline Trumps Distraction

And while he is discussing value, that seems to me to be significant in itself. It seems to me that the "factors" crowd has been quietly and gradually claiming less and less and less importance for the size factor, the first of all factors to be discovered.
by nisiprius
Sun Oct 15, 2017 8:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which would you rather own: AAPL or S&P 600 Small Cap Index?
Replies: 57
Views: 3264

Re: Which would you rather own: AAPL or S&P 600 Small Cap Index?

So, serious question--I did some cursory searches once without success. Can anyone come up with an accepted definition of the word "diversification" along with an accepted numerical measure of it, so that we could apply it and find out what represents maximum diversification by that measure? A key q...
by nisiprius
Sat Oct 14, 2017 6:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which would you rather own: AAPL or S&P 600 Small Cap Index?
Replies: 57
Views: 3264

Re: Which would you rather own: AAPL or S&P 600 Small Cap Index?

Which is more diversified: a basket of 200 stocks of small companies, all in the same line of business, or a massive conglomerate with 200 divisions, each in a different line of business? Definitely 200 small companies,one scandal in one corporation can bring down 200 divisions of one company Altho...
by nisiprius
Sat Oct 14, 2017 4:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which would you rather own: AAPL or S&P 600 Small Cap Index?
Replies: 57
Views: 3264

Re: Which would you rather own: AAPL or S&P 600 Small Cap Index?

What if framed the question like this: If you could only hold Apple and the bottom 1000 stocks in TSM, would you hold them at market weight?... Wait, that's a different kind of question. I don't know how to answer that one. If the entire stock market consisted of nothing but AAPL and the bottom 1,0...
by nisiprius
Sat Oct 14, 2017 1:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which would you rather own: AAPL or S&P 600 Small Cap Index?
Replies: 57
Views: 3264

Re: Which would you rather own: AAPL or S&P 600 Small Cap Index?

The Vanguard Small Cap Index Fund, NAESX, goes back farther than VIOO, the Vanguard S&P Small-cap 600 index fund. Quick checking, the two have tracked together fairly closely over the life of VIOO and I want to go back far enough to include some of Apple's bad times as well as their good times. NAES...
by nisiprius
Sat Oct 14, 2017 12:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Medicare Advantage vs. Supplemental
Replies: 40
Views: 2447

Re: Medicare Advantage vs. Supplemental

When I was looking around several years ago, I ended up with traditional Medicare + supplemental for these reasons. Everything depends on your area and your situation. 1) There was not a huge difference in total cost. Medicare Advantage had considerably lower premiums, but considerably higher out-of...
by nisiprius
Sat Oct 14, 2017 10:01 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: All in with Balanced Index fund
Replies: 41
Views: 4941

Re: All in with Balanced Index fund

...why VBINX isn't more popular? Ask Jack said, VBINX is really all most investors need... There is a very broad range of balanced funds that could quite arguably be "all most investors really need." Here are a few, off the top of my head, and the amount of assets each holds. I note that you have 2...