Search found 33940 matches

by nisiprius
Sat Jan 20, 2018 6:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?
Replies: 73
Views: 6233

Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

anyone going to this conference? :D [Yahoo! Finance All Markets Summit: Crypto What's wrong with this picture? https://imgur.com/7ZNKK8o.png I'm scared to drill down any further for fear of accidentally buying a ticket, but can anyone confirm whether there is any option for paying in any cryptocurr...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 20, 2018 6:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?
Replies: 73
Views: 6233

Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

...I've tried to introduce other ideas in these discussions, but people seem to be completely uninterested. There are no questions at all. Which I find quite sad... I've posted about Bitcoin Cash, which was supposed to be the solution to Bitcoin's self-inflicted problem... Bitcoin's problems are a ...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 20, 2018 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Mortality and Expense Risk Charge???? What is this?
Replies: 18
Views: 1019

Re: Mortality and Expense Risk Charge???? What is this?

One of my banks instituted a new fee, buried in the fine print of one of their occasional multipage fee disclosure mailings. If they decide you have abandoned your account, they charge $99 for "escheating" your money to the State Treasurer's office. I thought they had found the absolutely ultimate i...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 20, 2018 4:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to Minimize Your Emergency Care Expenses
Replies: 75
Views: 3430

Re: How to Minimize Your Emergency Care Expenses

Thanks, WCI. Very interesting. I wonder if you'd have something to say about another problem, which is that as nearly as I can tell, in terms of procedure codes and so forth, doctors cannot predict exactly what they will be doing and thus the procedure codes are not known before the procedure has be...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 20, 2018 3:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What "efficient market" does and doesn't mean
Replies: 18
Views: 715

Re: What "efficient market" does and doesn't mean

1) What is the data that would lead to the conclusion that the efficient market hypothesis has been falsified? Seriously falsified, not just slightly falsified? 2) What are the specific things that are impossible if the EMH is correct, but possible if it is incorrect? 3) How could a Norman Rockwell ...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 20, 2018 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's your U.S. : International ratio?
Replies: 75
Views: 23494

Re: What's your U.S. : International ratio?

Within stocks, 76% U.S., 24% international. With bonds, 100% U.S. Years of reading the forum led me to gradually nudge my allocation within stocks from 20% international up to about 25% international, over a time period of about a decade. Yes--led me to engage in bad market timing, because I upped t...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 20, 2018 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do Bogleheads reconcile efficient markets theory with Bitcoin?
Replies: 45
Views: 2012

Re: How do Bogleheads reconcile efficient markets theory with Bitcoin?

Oh, one detail. There is no "efficient markets theory ." There is an efficient markets hypothesis , EMH. An hypothesis is a possibility that is tested by observation and experiment. It's a term taken from science, but because it is impossible to perform experiments in financial economics, it is not ...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 20, 2018 5:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do Bogleheads reconcile efficient markets theory with Bitcoin?
Replies: 45
Views: 2012

Re: How do Bogleheads reconcile efficient markets theory with Bitcoin?

P.S. You can debate the validity of the theory, but the dividend discount theory of stock pricing does give a coherent rational intellectual framework for how a stock ought to be value. Crypto mavens: what is the crypto equivalent of the dividend discount theory? What pieces of statistical informat...
by nisiprius
Fri Jan 19, 2018 10:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do Bogleheads reconcile efficient markets theory with Bitcoin?
Replies: 45
Views: 2012

Re: How do Bogleheads reconcile efficient markets theory with Bitcoin?

P.S. You can debate the validity of the theory, but the dividend discount theory of stock pricing does give a coherent rational intellectual framework for how a stock ought to be valued. It is more of a thought experiment than a procedure because it depends on things like the future interest rates f...
by nisiprius
Fri Jan 19, 2018 10:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do Bogleheads reconcile efficient markets theory with Bitcoin?
Replies: 45
Views: 2012

Re: How do Bogleheads reconcile efficient markets theory with Bitcoin?

I don't think all markets are efficient. Mostly in Bogleheads we are talking about the securities markets, which have been established for over a century, a lot of participation, a lot of liquidity, a lot of regulation involving transparency of important information that affects valuations, speciali...
by nisiprius
Fri Jan 19, 2018 6:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity Freedom 2020 vs Vanguard Index Funds?
Replies: 16
Views: 1056

Re: Fidelity Freedom 2020 vs Vanguard Index Funds?

I have a 401k at my former employer that is 100% invested in the Fidelity Freedom 2020 fund. It's at about $125,000 now. Would rolling it over to a Vanguard IRA invested in Vanguard index funds offer any advantages? I am not sure whether as a former employee I could change investments within that 4...
by nisiprius
Fri Jan 19, 2018 4:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GE and the myth of "safe blue-chip stocks"
Replies: 109
Views: 12667

Re: GE and the myth of "safe blue-chip stocks"

...Last year, I found a company with 2.6x more cash than its market capitalization, and was trading at 0.4 of its book value. Understand what that means. It means a third-party seller could have paid the market price for the entire company, then immediately claim back the cash, and still be left wi...
by nisiprius
Fri Jan 19, 2018 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard US Investment Options Minus Top 10?
Replies: 20
Views: 1262

Re: Vanguard US Investment Options Minus Top 10?

...Don't short ETFs tend of have very high expense ratios?... It's worse than that. It's much, much, much worse than that. Inverse and leveraged ETFs are evil. They don't do what many investors think they do. They are completely unsuitable for any kind of long-term or buy-and-hold investing. They d...
by nisiprius
Fri Jan 19, 2018 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What will happen if everyone indexed?
Replies: 23
Views: 2176

Re: What will happen if everyone indexed?

I believe: If 100% of all stock investors index, literally all, with nobody but index funds buying or selling stocks, there will be chaos. If 90% of all retail (non-institutional) stock investors index, there will be no bad effects at all, none whatsoever, on the market or on indexers. The efficienc...
by nisiprius
Fri Jan 19, 2018 1:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What can I do to fight this ridiculous medical bill?
Replies: 86
Views: 3942

Re: What can I do to fight this ridiculous medical bill?

My main advice is "don't panic." Healthcare billing is so utterly screwed up that getting giant erroneous bills isn't rare, and you just can't tell how it will come out. Stay cool, start making phone calls--lots of them, don't yell, and start taking notes of the name of everyone you talked to, when,...
by nisiprius
Fri Jan 19, 2018 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the crypto market efficient?
Replies: 23
Views: 1181

Re: Is the crypto market efficient?

Given that I saw "market prices" for Bitcoin in the 14000's, the 13000's and the 12000's within seconds of each other in a Google search, at Coindesk, and a Winkdex I would say it is obviously not efficient. As to whether you or I can exploit that inefficiency, I would doubt it to beat heck. The peo...
by nisiprius
Fri Jan 19, 2018 9:21 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are ETFs Really That Safe?
Replies: 26
Views: 1991

Re: Are ETFs Really That Safe?

ETFs are normally lumped with index funds as fairly safe investments, but ETFs seem far more dangerous. Even Bogle warned about them What do other people think? I want exposure to robotics stocks through an ETF, but I'm not sure how happy I would be with my cash parked in one I hate ETFs. I don't u...
by nisiprius
Fri Jan 19, 2018 9:11 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: High Dividend Stocks as bond substitute?
Replies: 29
Views: 1418

Re: High Dividend Stocks as bond substitute?

Stocks are not bonds, period. Bonds are less risky than stocks, not because of any statistical patterns in past prices, but because they are a fundamentally different thing. A bond is a legally enforceable contract to pay specific numbers of dollars on specific days. It's a bill the issuer has to pa...
by nisiprius
Fri Jan 19, 2018 8:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard US Investment Options Minus Top 10?
Replies: 20
Views: 1262

Re: Vanguard US Investment Options Minus Top 10?

(Shrug) You have a specific personal opinion about four to ten specific stocks, which you think are dogs. The idea that there's something specially bad about the top ten isn't a popular theory, and I don't know of any Vanguard products that happen to be based on it. Vanguard has tools for implementi...
by nisiprius
Fri Jan 19, 2018 3:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Superstars of Wrestling Investing - Ultimate S&P500 Valuation
Replies: 13
Views: 1382

Re: Superstars of Wrestling Investing - Ultimate S&P500 Valuation

I don't mean to criticize mentioning this article--I like financial porn as much as the next guy--but its main value, if it has any, is to illustrate the point that at any given instant in time there are huge differences in the predictions of the best informed and most knowledgeable observers. Of co...
by nisiprius
Thu Jan 18, 2018 4:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $399 - New Course - Fire your Financial Advisor - By WhiteCoat Investor - Anyone?
Replies: 121
Views: 6887

Re: $399 - New Course - Fire your Financial Advisor - By WhiteCoat Investor - Anyone?

...No one was slamming Rick Ferri or Bill Bernstein for offering investment information and advice, as a business as well as on the forum... It's a tricky area, but as a matter of fact these posters were fairly punctilious about not identifying their businesses in their posts. Rick Ferri actually c...
by nisiprius
Thu Jan 18, 2018 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lets talk about some favorite index funds?
Replies: 32
Views: 1504

Re: Lets talk about some favorite index funds?

Hoggrad, that's not really the way it works. The first step is to decide on your "favorite" asset classes, the kind of thing you want to invest in. In my case--let's call them "chosen" rather than favorite--they are U.S. stocks, international stocks, U.S. bonds in general, and then U.S. inflation-in...
by nisiprius
Thu Jan 18, 2018 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $399 - New Course - Fire your Financial Advisor - By WhiteCoat Investor - Anyone?
Replies: 121
Views: 6887

Re: $399 - New Course - Fire your Financial Advisor - By WhiteCoat Investor - Anyone?

Well, the actual subject material seems to be how to create your own financial plan. The "Fire your Financial Advisor" is just the hook. I'm reading the material correctly, this course does not include any direct human interaction; it's basically a book with online interactive worksheets and tests. ...
by nisiprius
Thu Jan 18, 2018 8:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSP's F Fund outperforms the G Fund, so why is the G Fund favored?
Replies: 34
Views: 2161

Re: The F Fund outperforms the G Fund, so why is the G Fund favored?

I'm not a TSP participant, so I don't know what "all the negativity" is, maybe you could quote some actual examples. The F fund seems to be a Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate Bond Index fund, just like Vanguard Total Bond (but with an even lower expense ratio) which is one of the most commonly suggested...
by nisiprius
Wed Jan 17, 2018 7:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I sell Ishares and invest in index funds?
Replies: 5
Views: 437

Re: Should I sell Ishares and invest in index funds?

iShares is the family name of aeries of ETFs (exchange traded funds).They are (usually) a kind of index fund, but they have short ticker symbols that do not end in X. They are not single companies. They are funds of hundreds or thousands of stocks, that are bought and sold in a different way from mu...
by nisiprius
Wed Jan 17, 2018 6:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will a bond sell-off be the catalyst for a Major Market Correction?
Replies: 13
Views: 1352

Re: Will a bond sell-off be the catalyst for a Major Market Correction?

Bill Gross left PIMCO in 2014, and joined Janus to manage JUCIX, the Janus Henderson Global Unconstrained Bond Fund, with complete freedom to invest in the most promising bond issues whereever they might be found. VBMFX, The Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund is slavishly shackled to a bond index...
by nisiprius
Wed Jan 17, 2018 6:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will a bond sell-off be the catalyst for a Major Market Correction?
Replies: 13
Views: 1352

Re: Will a bond sell-off be the catalyst for a Major Market Correction?

I saw this article: http://money.cnn.com/2018/01/16/investing/bonds-market-stocks-inflation/index.html Some scary quotes: - A sell-off in bonds could be "the Armageddon event for this year," Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst for Think Markets UK, wrote in a report Tuesday. - Bill Gross, manager of ...
by nisiprius
Wed Jan 17, 2018 3:43 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 3264
Views: 945203

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

jacques Tati's Playtime. Watchable? Yes. A masterpiece? Not to me.
by nisiprius
Wed Jan 17, 2018 3:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?
Replies: 73
Views: 6233

Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

http://nordic.businessinsider.com/the-swedish-founder-of-bitcoin.com-one-of-the-largest-sites-in-the-industry-has-sold-all-his-bitcoins-because-its-as-good-as-useless--/ "USELESS" Stop buying Bitcoin! It's USELESS!!! Come buy my alternative, Bitcoin Cash! :shock: Which, it transpires, is also usele...
by nisiprius
Wed Jan 17, 2018 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A 4% move in the Dow and S&P in 12 days? Seems odd
Replies: 94
Views: 6966

Re: A 4% move in the Dow and S&P in 12 days? Seems odd

I believe I heard some market guru say that upside moves or toppings end when the bulk of the investing public (including new investors drawn to the excitement of the rising market?) runs out of new money to throw in Exactly what does that mean, and what data could you look at to find out whether i...
by nisiprius
Tue Jan 16, 2018 8:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets equities went sideways for 50 years 1920-70
Replies: 24
Views: 2048

Re: Emerging Markets equities went sideways for 50 years 1920-70

Since the term "emerging markets" wasn't coined or defined until 1981, and the first index wasn't created until IIRC 1988, and since when the index was created it only represented 1% of global cap weight, I doubt that the data is accurate, and even if accurate I doubt that it matters. It's like aski...
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 15, 2018 6:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyway to compare metrics of today w stock bubble in 2000
Replies: 26
Views: 2231

Re: Anyway to compare metrics of today w stock bubble in 2000

...In 1999, there was euphoria in the market. I don't get any sense of euphoria today. In fact, I'd say that until last year, this was the most unloved bull market I've ever heard of... I continue to think the difference is that the 1995-2000 bull market was piled on top of a solid and long-sustain...
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 15, 2018 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can the Schiller P/E ratio be used for tactical allocation?
Replies: 13
Views: 699

Re: Can the Schiller P/E ratio be used for tactical allocation?

I don't think the Shiller (no C in his name) CAPE can be used for anything except predicting the stock market crash of 2000-2002, once.

And now that everyone knows about it, it won't work again.
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 15, 2018 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying and Spending Bitcoin
Replies: 126
Views: 16603

Re: Buying and Spending Bitcoin

So you are saying that in addition to everything else, cryptocurrency users need to consider at least the possibility of a DOS attack intentionally directed at a particular currency? Grand.

Now, who might want to do a thing like that?
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 15, 2018 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 50/50 AA recommended by Benjamin Graham
Replies: 16
Views: 1569

Re: 50/50 AA recommended by Benjamin Graham

The Intelligent Investor was written in 1949 when the Dow Jones was at 180. The passage I quoted is from the 1973 edition , and makes specific reference to not going over 50% unless an investor "is sure that he could view of market decline of the 1969-70 type with equanimity." It is very clear that...
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 15, 2018 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 50/50 AA recommended by Benjamin Graham
Replies: 16
Views: 1569

Re: 50/50 AA recommended by Benjamin Graham

One thing to remember is that Graham has been dead for 40 years and his great work was done 80 years ago. People didn't live as long, in general, and the idea of spending old age living above the garage of an adult child wasn't considered bad. Anyway, there wasn't as along a period for stocks to re...
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 15, 2018 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 50/50 AA recommended by Benjamin Graham
Replies: 16
Views: 1569

Re: 50/50 AA recommended by Benjamin Graham

His actual words: We have suggested as a fundamental guiding rule that the investor should never have less than 25% or more than 75% of his funds in common stocks, with a consequent inverse range of between 75% and 25% in bonds. There is an implication here that the standard division should be an eq...
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 15, 2018 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do people in the forum hold foreign bonds?
Replies: 42
Views: 2529

Re: Do people in the forum hold foreign bonds?

With regard to emerging markets bonds, I don't want to over emphasize this, but: 1998. It's important because it has dropped out of the ten-year time window through which people often look. EMB, for example, only had its inception in 2007. FMNIX, Fidelity New Markets Income, is an emerging markets b...
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 15, 2018 10:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do people in the forum hold foreign bonds?
Replies: 42
Views: 2529

Re: Do people in the forum hold foreign bonds?

Not me. I think you mean the Vanguard paper, Global fixed income: Considerations for U.S. investors . I think it's a good paper, and I've read it, fairly carefully, a couple of times. The interesting thing is that the conclusions I drew from it were: a) It doesn't make any sense to hold foreign bond...
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 15, 2018 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: “Better Buy” Total US or International ?
Replies: 30
Views: 3100

Re: “Better Buy” Total US or International ?

I don't know and I don't care. It would never even occur to me to try to figure it out. The market has decided how much it wants to pay for U.S. and international stocks. When you get to a total global scale, 3,624 stocks in Vanguard Total [U.S.] Stock Market Index, 6,267 in Vanguard Total Internati...
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 15, 2018 7:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do Preferred securities let you sleep well at night?
Replies: 13
Views: 888

Re: Do Preferred securities let you sleep well at night?

Here's another thing. Larry Swedroe and Jared Kizer wrote a good book called The Only Guide to Alternative Investments You'll Ever Need: The Good, the Flawed, the Bad, and the Ugly. If you want to take the next step in exploring preferred stocks, you should definitely read the chapter of the book th...
by nisiprius
Mon Jan 15, 2018 7:45 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do Preferred securities let you sleep well at night?
Replies: 13
Views: 888

Re: Do Preferred securities let you sleep well at night?

...He says its the best of both the worlds - less risky than stock and higher returns than bond... Yes, they are less risky than stock and higher returns than bonds. No, they are not the "best of both worlds," they are just in between. The big question is: are they any better than simply investing ...
by nisiprius
Sun Jan 14, 2018 10:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying and Spending Bitcoin
Replies: 126
Views: 16603

Re: Buying and Spending Bitcoin

Buying bitcoin from a Las Vegas ATM Some Las Vegas restaurants accept payment in bitcoin, so I decided to try to buy bitcoin from a casino's bitcoin ATM. I lost all my money. Considering the exorbitant bitcoin ATM fee, I have real doubts as to whether or not bitcoin has a real future as a currency....
by nisiprius
Sun Jan 14, 2018 12:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you correct cashier mistakes?
Replies: 41
Views: 2142

Re: Do you correct cashier mistakes?

Yes, I do. I ask for corrections, either way. Sometimes I will forego some trivial "deal," a slightly-reduced price that doesn't ring up properly, if it's a small amount and it's busy. One of the truly mysterious moments in my life occurred a while ago, when I was buying a book at Brentano's in New ...
by nisiprius
Sun Jan 14, 2018 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nostalgic about old online brokerages that no longer exist
Replies: 43
Views: 4667

Re: Nostalgic about old online brokerages that no longer exist

I'm not nostalgic, but I do remember Schwab's $29.95 commission for online trades once seeming dirt cheap, miraculously cheap, unbelievably cheap. People who fuss over 0.05% expense ratios have no idea. Before the end of negotiated commissions, your typical brokerage transaction cost considerably mo...
by nisiprius
Sun Jan 14, 2018 8:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Heading for a top?
Replies: 103
Views: 7744

Re: Heading for a top?

First, I think that it is reasonable to restrict the phrase "market timing" to mean "the strategies followed by people who call themselves market timers." Market timers make huge moves, frequently all in or all out of chosen asset classes, based on "signals" derived from various sources--commonly te...
by nisiprius
Sun Jan 14, 2018 8:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey's Millionaire Study
Replies: 59
Views: 10219

Re: Dave Ramsey's Millionaire Study

He doesn't care about the results of the survey. Surveys are just an effective way to get people involved with Ramsey. The survey results will show whatever he want them to show because most of the people who take it will be people who are attracted to Ramsey's ideas. In the case of widely publicize...
by nisiprius
Sun Jan 14, 2018 7:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Adding 200k to Portfolio, don't want boring old VTSAX again -your criticism, suggestion for a little extra risk?
Replies: 39
Views: 4298

Re: Adding 200k to Portfolio, don't want boring old VTSAX again -your criticism, suggestion for a little extra risk?

I think you need to get past your emotions first before you make any decisions. If I had a 200K windfall to invest, I would start by putting it into the boring old portfolio I have now. I would decouple the excitement of the windfall from the investment decision. The fact of money become available d...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 13, 2018 9:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Skating where the puck was; e.g., commodities. Factors next?
Replies: 35
Views: 2437

Re: Skating where the puck was; e.g., commodities. Factors next?

Who knows who is right or wrong, but considering Ben Graham was writing about ideas of value investing in 1930's and is the most well known investor of ALL TIME with many financial professionals following his work (Buffett being just one of them) and in the value premium is STILL around tells me it...