Search found 33128 matches

by nisiprius
Mon Sep 25, 2017 9:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Financial History Books
Replies: 5
Views: 292

Re: Financial History Books

The Great Depression: A Diary, by Benjamin Roth. It's sensational. A view at ground level by an intelligent and percipient young lawyer.
by nisiprius
Mon Sep 25, 2017 10:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: A 5 Factor Evaluation
Replies: 14
Views: 1386

Re: Larry Swedroe: A 5 Factor Evaluation

It seems to me that he owes us an explanation of "what about 'quality,'" since Swedroe and Berkin, 2016, Your Complete Guide to Factor-Based Investing makes a point of saying that the quality factor "captures a larger set of quality characteristics" than profitability, and presumably meets their cri...
by nisiprius
Sun Sep 24, 2017 11:27 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The Expert's Dilemma - How can I know I'm getting a good physician without being one myself?
Replies: 77
Views: 4190

Re: The Expert's Dilemma - How can I know I'm getting a good physician without being one myself?

I don't have any answers. One thing I do myself--it's dumb, it's obvious, but it's something to do--is to look for the doctor's profile and look carefully at what he or she lists as his "clinical interests." Thus, if my PCP says I need a hernia repair, and surgeon X lists "oncology; colorectal; endo...
by nisiprius
Sat Sep 23, 2017 3:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How an asset with a NEGATIVE return can INCREASE your portfolio's return
Replies: 31
Views: 2870

Re: How an asset with a NEGATIVE return can INCREASE your portfolio's return

Actually, I think what's going on becomes clearer if we boost the bitcoin allocation to a full 20%. Cutting down stocks and bonds proportionally, that's a 48/32/20 stocks/bonds/bitcoin portfolio. Unequivocally, over this specific time period, the bitcoin allocation increased the return of the portfo...
by nisiprius
Sat Sep 23, 2017 11:16 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why use a REIT over a rental property?
Replies: 18
Views: 1058

Re: Why use a REIT over a rental property?

1) REITs are commercial real estate, rental properties as you describe them sound like residential real estate. I don't know why you'd want commercial real estate over residential real estate, but but if you did, you'd want a REIT. 2) VGSIX holds 158 REITs. I don't know just what diversification doe...
by nisiprius
Sat Sep 23, 2017 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How an asset with a NEGATIVE return can INCREASE your portfolio's return
Replies: 31
Views: 2870

Re: How an asset with a NEGATIVE return can INCREASE your portfolio's return

These details are just to help in case there's any actual difference in the analysis I did and the analysis 30sep16 did. 30sep16 I went to the source you suggested and chose "export CSV." I brought the data into Excel and did some fiddling learning how VLOOKUP works, so as to extract month-end value...
by nisiprius
Sat Sep 23, 2017 10:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How an asset with a NEGATIVE return can INCREASE your portfolio's return
Replies: 31
Views: 2870

Re: How an asset with a NEGATIVE return can INCREASE your portfolio's return

First, 30sep16, let me acknowledge that you have done something very close to accepting a challenge I posed in another thread. I don't know whether you saw that challenge or not. And I agree, you have indeed displayed a specific time period over which a bitcoin allocation had a negative return and i...
by nisiprius
Fri Sep 22, 2017 5:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which is better a Cryptocurrency or Gold?
Replies: 29
Views: 1944

Re: Which is better a Cryptocurrency or Gold?

If your goal is a lottery-like experience, in which you commit a small amount of money in order to get a chance of a fabulously high payoff, ignoring all question of expected returns, it seems to me that bitcoin has been better. Bitcoin has gone from $238 in September, 2015 to $3,611 in September, 2...
by nisiprius
Fri Sep 22, 2017 2:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Experian will give you your pin on-line!
Replies: 9
Views: 1402

Re: Experian will give you your pin on-line!

That's odd. I actually needed to get my Experian pin, having misplaced the one they mailed me, and for me, the online procedure required the "answer four questions" procedure--often used for "electronic signing" online--four questions which seem to vary each time and go well outside information you ...
by nisiprius
Fri Sep 22, 2017 10:44 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to recognize self-help books?
Replies: 24
Views: 1306

Re: How to recognize self-help books?

I think one must fall back on Justice Potter Stewart's remark, in a different context, "I know it when I see it." Broadly speaking, although there are many books that might help me become better, wealthier, more lovable, etc. there are only some books whose title (and introduction and jacket descrip...
by nisiprius
Fri Sep 22, 2017 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Difference Between Risk and Uncertainty
Replies: 41
Views: 2705

Re: The Difference Between Risk and Uncertainty

Difference between pure risk and speculative risk. From the glossary of terms from IRMI (International Risk Management Institute). speculative risk Uncertainty about an event under consideration that could produce either a profit or a loss, such as a business venture or a gambling transaction. A pu...
by nisiprius
Fri Sep 22, 2017 5:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: Please Offer a Gold ETF
Replies: 95
Views: 4656

Re: Vanguard: Please Offer a Gold ETF

I am just raising the philosophical point that I want my asset classes to have return after inflation over time. I always wonder why one focuses on the individual returns of asset classes in a portfolio rather than the total return of the portfolio as a whole. Since few own single asset portfolios ...
by nisiprius
Thu Sep 21, 2017 9:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: Please Offer a Gold ETF
Replies: 95
Views: 4656

Re: Vanguard: Please Offer a Gold ETF

I am just raising the philosophical point that I want my asset classes to have return after inflation over time. I always wonder why one focuses on the individual returns of asset classes in a portfolio rather than the total return of the portfolio as a whole. Since few own single asset portfolios ...
by nisiprius
Thu Sep 21, 2017 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: Please Offer a Gold ETF
Replies: 95
Views: 4656

Re: Vanguard: Please Offer a Gold ETF

It can be an ETF without being an investment company. They are trusts, but still ETFs. https://www.spdrgoldshares.com/ "SPDR® Gold Shares is the largest physically backed gold exchange traded fund (ETF) in the world." I'm almost ready to stand corrected, but I'd like you to explain how this jibes w...
by nisiprius
Thu Sep 21, 2017 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: Please Offer a Gold ETF
Replies: 95
Views: 4656

Re: Vanguard: Please Offer a Gold ETF

jalbert wrote:
Thu Sep 21, 2017 3:41 pm
I have no interest in investing in gold, but 25 bp/yr for an ETF like IAU to hold a commodity with storage costs seems quite cheap to me. I doubt Vanguard could beat that.
I agree. And physically storing gold in vaults is probably not one of Vanguard's "core competencies."
by nisiprius
Thu Sep 21, 2017 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: Please Offer a Gold ETF
Replies: 95
Views: 4656

Re: Vanguard: Please Offer a Gold ETF

I don't think there are any "gold ETFs." GLD and IAU are not ETFs. Please be careful about this. Not everything with a three-letter ticker symbol as an ETF. https://www.ishares.com/us/literature/prospectus/p-ishares-gold-trust-prospectus-12-31.pdf The Trust is not an investment company registered u...
by nisiprius
Wed Sep 20, 2017 6:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Congrats to Mr. Warren Buffett, we knew you would win...:)
Replies: 5
Views: 1362

Re: Congrats to Mr. Warren Buffett, we knew you would win...:)

I think it is extremely likely that he will win, but I think the bet does not end until the end of the year. I so, I am astonished at the number of article headlines like these (quoted from a quick Google search): "Warren Buffett won $2 million from a bet that he made 10 years ago" (not a misprint, ...
by nisiprius
Wed Sep 20, 2017 4:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Equifax customer information leak
Replies: 636
Views: 38311

Re: Equifax customer information leak

went to annualcreditreport.com today to get my free annual reports....had not viewed them this year so figured today was as good as any. Was able to view and download Equifax and Transunion but Experian would not work . Stated I have to send in a paper form to request from them. Anyone else have th...
by nisiprius
Wed Sep 20, 2017 1:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Income from Uncorrelated Commodities
Replies: 26
Views: 957

Re: Income from Uncorrelated Commodities

I don't think there are any true commodity ETFs. I may be out of date on this, though. There are ETFs and mutual funds that investing collateralized commodity futures (CCFs). There is one ETN, "GLD," which does hold actual physical assets, but there's some weird stuff in the prospectus that says it ...
by nisiprius
Wed Sep 20, 2017 10:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: is AQR long-short really less risky than TSM?
Replies: 11
Views: 722

Re: is AQR long-short really less risky than TSM?

Just a simple statement of what I found. (I own VTSMX/VTSAX. I don't know if there's any available channel for me to buy QLEIX. I'm not bothering to find out because I personally would not consider QLEIX. But, this is what I found:) Since inception, QLEIX has had a considerably higher return, a cons...
by nisiprius
Wed Sep 20, 2017 6:41 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Automate Savings
Replies: 5
Views: 468

Re: Automate Savings

The only way I've ever been able to save significant amounts of money is to have it done for me automatically. If you're talking about "percentage of paycheck" rather than "fixed dollar amount" I don't know. But "fixed dollar amount" is usually easy. Every employer I've ever worked for has had an op...
by nisiprius
Wed Sep 20, 2017 6:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Multiple sources of income - fact or fiction?
Replies: 12
Views: 1848

Re: Multiple sources of income - fact or fiction?

I keep hearing financial advisers suggest one should have"Multiple sources of passive income". It seems this has become some type of catchpharse,but in reality no one including the people using it ever mentions what these "Sources" are. So aside from the obvious stock market (+bonds) and the non-pa...
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 19, 2017 5:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Difference Between Risk and Uncertainty
Replies: 41
Views: 2705

Re: The Difference Between Risk and Uncertainty

I don't think I've seen the term "speculative risk" (as distinct from "risk") before. Is that a generally understood term? BobK and Kevin, and any other who wish to comment... in the light of the two groups of definitions BobK has marshaled, what would you say about the fairly frequently echoed phra...
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 19, 2017 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Opinions on moving to VG
Replies: 18
Views: 1361

Re: Opinions on moving to VG

...My wife and I have some of our investments with Vanguard. The state of NC has a 401k and 457b plan that I participated in from my first year teaching. Since I retired from the state of NC, I have been debating moving my 401k to Vanguard. I will give you a definite maybe on this. The first is tha...
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 19, 2017 1:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Difference Between Risk and Uncertainty
Replies: 41
Views: 2705

Re: The Difference Between Risk and Uncertainty

It's a zoo. Consider, for example, an actual textbook: Investments , 7th edition, Bodie, Kane, and Marcus. I go to the glossary. I look up the word "risk." It's not there. Interesting. I have the third edition, and in the index I see: Risk defined, 123 That's sufficiently "interesting" that I reall...
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 19, 2017 11:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hello and a Question ["The Little Book That (Still) Beats the Market"]
Replies: 11
Views: 1421

Re: Hello and a Question ["The Little Book That (Still) Beats the Market"]

Does it actually call out which stocks to buy and sell--so that you could program a computer to do it? Or does it just say "we'll narrow down the field for you, but you still have the responsibility for doing stock-picking from this long list?" If the latter, how are you supposed to pick them? Throw...
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 19, 2017 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What will happen to a USD Hedged fund if the USD Declines, VTABX
Replies: 9
Views: 1131

Re: What will happen to a USD Hedged fund if the USD Declines, VTABX

The Vanguard Total International Bond Index Fund, VTABX, only goes back to 2013. However, as a USD current-hedged fund, is somewhat similar to the PIMCO Global Bond (USD-Hedged) fund, PGBIX, which goes back further. You can see this by charting them together: Source https://s26.postimg.org/6fqhk5hk9...
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 19, 2017 6:22 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Invest in CDs rather than bonds
Replies: 9
Views: 1037

Re: Invest in CDs rather than bonds

P. P. S. You say "no fees" for the bank CD. Are you sure? I once had a bank try to charge me a $20 fee for cashing in a CD at maturity rather than rolling it over. I charged into the bank waving the thing they'd mailed me and made a fuss about it and they waived the fee in order to get rid of me, bu...
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 19, 2017 6:15 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Invest in CDs rather than bonds
Replies: 9
Views: 1037

Re: Invest in CDs rather than bonds

P.S. You are right, though. An awful lot of what's written about "investments" is limited to "things you can buy from a brokerage." A false distinction is often made between "savings" at a bank and "investments" in stocks, bonds, and mutual funds. In reality, "savings" is the term for money you've e...
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 19, 2017 6:08 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Invest in CDs rather than bonds
Replies: 9
Views: 1037

Re: Invest in CDs rather than bonds

So I was thinking of investing in an Intermediate Treasury Bond Index Fund because of it's non-correlation and to counter the Total Stock Market Index Fund in times of market loss. It's about a 1.5% forecast return in 5-years. A 5-year CD can be had at 2.4%. If rates rise, I can get out of the bank...
by nisiprius
Mon Sep 18, 2017 9:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why is TransUnion pushing True Identity vs credit freeze?
Replies: 21
Views: 4997

Re: Why is TransUnion pushing True Identity vs credit freeze?

Because the credit reporting agencies hate credit freezes, fought against them, and we only have them because of state legislation. What credit reporting agencies have to sell is your information. Not all of it relates to creditworthiness, and not all of their clients buying that data want it for th...
by nisiprius
Mon Sep 18, 2017 5:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Making my own Total US stock market fund.
Replies: 20
Views: 1712

Re: Making my own Total US stock market fund.

Since the plan is offering Fidelity funds, it's likely managed by Fidelity. The good new for you is that Fidelity, the company, has two low-cost, perfectly good index funds--IMHO virtual clones of their Vanguard counterparts: FSEVX, Fidelity Extended Market Index Fund (premium class) FSTVX, Fidelity...
by nisiprius
Mon Sep 18, 2017 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hello and a Question ["The Little Book That (Still) Beats the Market"]
Replies: 11
Views: 1421

Re: Hello and a Question ["The Little Book That (Still) Beats the Market"]

To begin with, if the strategy described in 2005 in The Little Book that Beats the Market still beats the market, why is there a need for another edition saying so? Why not keep using the 2005 edition? I have no doubt at all that this is explained and plausible reasons are given, but nevertheless it...
by nisiprius
Mon Sep 18, 2017 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Making my own Total US stock market fund.
Replies: 20
Views: 1712

Re: Making my own Total US stock market fund.

paulso21, it would help if you would give the exact ticker symbol for the mid-cap and small-cap funds. I wouldn't fuss too much about false precision, but equal parts S&P 500, mid-cap, and small-cap is a large tilt and it would probably only be favored by people with strong convictions about mid-cap...
by nisiprius
Mon Sep 18, 2017 8:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Return and Investing Ideas
Replies: 40
Views: 3113

Re: Bitcoin Return and Investing Ideas

This is an interesting thread on Mt. Gox... The guy in the linked video says that for almost its entire existence Mt. Gox was insolvent. And that's a big problem with bitcoin. We are constantly being exhorted about the importance of dealing only with "reputable" entities. But, until it crashed, Mt....
by nisiprius
Mon Sep 18, 2017 7:46 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Ccleaner (32-bit) had malware payload with legit signed version
Replies: 26
Views: 2236

Re: Ccleaner (32-bit) had malware payload with legit signed version

Ccleaner's 32 bit version had a malware payload and was distributed to anyone who downloaded version 5.33 from the piriform website. It's kind of rare to see it in a signed version of software big enough to reach 5 million people a week. Ironically, Ccleaner is currently owned by the anti-virus com...
by nisiprius
Mon Sep 18, 2017 6:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good books for bond investing?
Replies: 16
Views: 1171

Re: Good books for bond investing?

I honestly don't know of any good books on bond investing. I'd like to read one myself. Annette Thau's The Bond Book is often recommended, but a couple of times when I had specific questions I've borrowed it from the library and it never had answers. The Handbook of Fixed Income Securities, by Frank...
by nisiprius
Mon Sep 18, 2017 6:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Return and Investing Ideas
Replies: 40
Views: 3113

Re: Bitcoin Return and Investing Ideas

A late acquaintance of mine played the lottery regularly. Her daughter described this acquaintance as having a "gambling addiction" and said that she spent so much on lottery tickets that it affected her household budget. About four years before she died, she hit a high-six-figure jackpot. I'm not p...
by nisiprius
Mon Sep 18, 2017 6:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Difference Between Risk and Uncertainty
Replies: 41
Views: 2705

Re: The Difference Between Risk and Uncertainty

One final observation. If the words "risk" and "uncertainty" were generally understood to have the meanings Knight gave them, there would be no need for Nassim Nicholas Taleb to have coined the phrase "black swans." His "black swans" would just be "uncertainty." I understand that Uncertainty might n...
by nisiprius
Mon Sep 18, 2017 5:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Difference Between Risk and Uncertainty
Replies: 41
Views: 2705

Re: The Difference Between Risk and Uncertainty

It's a zoo. Consider, for example, an actual textbook: Investments , 7th edition, Bodie, Kane, and Marcus. I go to the glossary. I look up the word "risk." It's not there. I do, however, find definitions for ten or so terms: risk arbitrage, risk-averse, risk-neutral, risk lover, risk-neutral, risk p...
by nisiprius
Mon Sep 18, 2017 5:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Difference Between Risk and Uncertainty
Replies: 41
Views: 2705

Re: The Difference Between Risk and Uncertainty

...1. Risk is the (often roughly) known probability of a known outcome. 2. Uncertainty is when the probability is unknown and/or the outcome is unknown. Those are pretty much Knight's definitions. Unfortunately, I've discovered that his definitions are not by any means widely accepted. The funny th...
by nisiprius
Mon Sep 18, 2017 5:38 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Manufacturers rebate for Chevy Cruze
Replies: 7
Views: 736

Re: Manufacturers rebate for Chevy Cruz

I think you mean Chevy Cruze. (Now corrected).
by nisiprius
Sun Sep 17, 2017 6:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Difference Between Risk and Uncertainty
Replies: 41
Views: 2705

Re: The Difference Between Risk and Uncertainty

There is a huge lit on this, but the simplest version is this... 1. Risk is the (often roughly) known probability of a known outcome. So a 50% chance of losing $100 is a risk of a negative outcome. Sometimes this is put it terms of expected utility or decision theory. 2. Uncertainty is when the pro...
by nisiprius
Sun Sep 17, 2017 4:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Goldman's Bear Market Indicator Shows Crash Dead Ahead"
Replies: 33
Views: 4853

Re: "Goldman's Bear Market Indicator Shows Crash Dead Ahead"

Ned, I decided that quoting and describing Wikipedia's supporting reference for the pro-Russian claim wasn't appropriate in the forum, so if you wouldn't mind... could you remove them from the place where you quoted me?
by nisiprius
Sun Sep 17, 2017 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Goldman's Bear Market Indicator Shows Crash Dead Ahead"
Replies: 33
Views: 4853

Re: "Goldman's Bear Market Indicator Shows Crash Dead Ahead"

Keep in mind that Zero Hedge is a dubious source. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero_Hedge Zero Hedge is an English-language financial blog that aggregates news and presents editorial opinions from original and outside sources. The news portion of the site is written by a group of editors who collec...
by nisiprius
Sun Sep 17, 2017 8:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Equity: Are managed funds better than Index funds?
Replies: 35
Views: 2162

Re: International Equity: Are managed funds better than Index funds?

M* does more than ratings which are useless. Morningstar ratings are not useless if used appropriately. Avoid funds with 1 and 2 star ratings. Indeed. You are right, I remember a study that showed that low star ratings did show persistence. However, frequently the reason why funds have 1 and 2-star...
by nisiprius
Sun Sep 17, 2017 8:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Equity: Are managed funds better than Index funds?
Replies: 35
Views: 2162

Re: International Equity: Are managed funds better than Index funds?

JimmyJammy, what would be really worthwhile for you to do--but the value only comes if you do it for yourself--is this. The Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund, VGTSX, goes back to 1996, more than twenty years. Do your best, Googling for yourself and choosing a source you trust yourself, a...
by nisiprius
Sun Sep 17, 2017 8:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Equity: Are managed funds better than Index funds?
Replies: 35
Views: 2162

Re: International Equity: Are managed funds better than Index funds?

So is Morningstar just a useless company making money on people's ignorance, in the opinion of the Bogleheads? I love Morningstar. I use their site the time. I think they're champs. It's the best single source of investment information on mutual funds that I know about. I even worry about whether t...
by nisiprius
Sat Sep 16, 2017 6:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Distressing news -> Flight to Safety ?
Replies: 75
Views: 6731

Re: Distressing news -> Flight to Safety ?

@nisiprius No argument. These are the kinds of ideas that I wanted to elicit with the original post. Whether one agrees or disagrees depends a lot on our own risk/reward viewpoint. Oh, good. Glad to hear it. I'd add that moving from Total Bond to pure Treasuries, win, lose, or draw, seems unlikely ...