Search found 33433 matches

by nisiprius
Fri Nov 17, 2017 7:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Risks of Non-ACA Compliant Health Insurance?
Replies: 42
Views: 1289

Re: Risks of Non-ACA Compliant Health Insurance?

[Deleted my post because I decided it was a little too close to being medical advice].
by nisiprius
Fri Nov 17, 2017 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Goldman Sachs mulls the death of the value factor
Replies: 18
Views: 1809

Re: Goldman Sachs mulls the death of the value factor

...When BusinessWeek comes out with a "Death of Value" cover, a huge rally in the Large Value stocks will be ahead. It took about 3-4 years after the infamous "Death of Equities" article for one of the greatest bull markets ever to ignite... The "Death of Equities" article is fine. It is constantly...
by nisiprius
Fri Nov 17, 2017 4:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Risks of Non-ACA Compliant Health Insurance?
Replies: 42
Views: 1289

Re: Risks of Non-ACA Compliant Health Insurance?

"Anything you are diagnosed for must be treated within the same six-month period as it will be considered a pre-existing condition for whatever insurance you buy at the end of the short term period--including another short-term policy. So I'm not sure what you mean by "renewing" it. If something ha...
by nisiprius
Fri Nov 17, 2017 1:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Risks of Non-ACA Compliant Health Insurance?
Replies: 42
Views: 1289

Re: Risks of Non-ACA Compliant Health Insurance?

"Short term" is what it says and it is very dangerous. Anything you are diagnosed for must be treated within the same six-month period as it will be considered a pre-existing condition for whatever insurance you buy at the end of the short term period--including another short-term policy. So I'm not...
by nisiprius
Fri Nov 17, 2017 9:12 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How unwise is it to move to a high-tax fiscally-shaky state? (Connecticut)
Replies: 50
Views: 3522

Re: How unwise is it to move to a high-tax fiscally-shaky state? (Connecticut)

[Ranking stuff] I don't think you can count UC campuses as "one". Very different universities. Amazed at UTA ranking because my perception is its way up there. Top 10 or 15 public universities. I have encountered grads from its business programme, and have been impressed. I wasn't really trying to ...
by nisiprius
Thu Nov 16, 2017 6:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How unwise is it to move to a high-tax fiscally-shaky state? (Connecticut)
Replies: 50
Views: 3522

Re: How unwise is it to move to a high-tax fiscally-shaky state? (Connecticut)

mega317 wrote:
Thu Nov 16, 2017 5:35 pm
You skipped #28 University of Michigan! I hadn't seen the 2018 rankings and you made me nervous for a second.
So sorry, I was confused... I thought the University of Michigan was private... somehow. Thinking of Pennsylvania, I guess. I'll add it.
by nisiprius
Thu Nov 16, 2017 2:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How unwise is it to move to a high-tax fiscally-shaky state? (Connecticut)
Replies: 50
Views: 3522

Re: How unwise is it to move to a high-tax fiscally-shaky state? (Connecticut)

here are lots of good private colleges in New England and the Mid-Atlantic states, probably more than in many other parts of the country. There's even one in New Haven ;-) ... I was thinking of the cost issue. Although private colleges are famous, I suspect the majority of Americans actually attend...
by nisiprius
Thu Nov 16, 2017 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying and Spending Bitcoin
Replies: 26
Views: 1781

Re: Buying and Spending Bitcoin

Excellent thread! Thanks for posting your experiences. Ditto. What happens if you lose the "master seed key?" Do you end up with a big wheel of bitcoin at the bottom of the sea... still there, "safe," can't be stolen by anybody else, just inaccessible to you? This page says that the Subway sandwich...
by nisiprius
Thu Nov 16, 2017 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Different Approaches to Estimating World's Total Market?
Replies: 4
Views: 447

Re: Different Approaches to Estimating World's Total Market?

1) There is no such thing as the world's total market. The theory behind cap-weighting total markets relies on the idea of a unified market, with low trading friction, within which investors can freely exchange from one security into another. The theory doesn't apply to a collection of separate mark...
by nisiprius
Thu Nov 16, 2017 11:15 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How unwise is it to move to a high-tax fiscally-shaky state? (Connecticut)
Replies: 50
Views: 3522

Re: How unwise is it to move to a high-tax fiscally-shaky state? (Connecticut)

Offhand I'm surprised that people would specifically tag Connecticut as being a problem. I'm not really familiar with it (mostly drive through it) but I can't think of anything so awful about the state of Connecticut as a whole that would lead you to cross a job off the list if the job otherwise loo...
by nisiprius
Thu Nov 16, 2017 9:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The passive investing trap
Replies: 19
Views: 2952

Re: The passive investing trap

...The main point of that article seems to be, "Investors tend to engage in irrational and/or risky behavior. Therefore, index funds are bad." Yes, EXACTLY. Now, it is possible that index funds somehow encourage certain behavioral errors. I don't believe it, but it's possible. After all, I actually...
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 15, 2017 10:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you subscribe to taking risk only on the equity side
Replies: 40
Views: 2157

Re: Do you subscribe to taking risk only on the equity side

I don't think of a portfolio this way. I think of a portfolio having risk and return as an entity. The risk and return of the portfolio can be calculated from the weighted proportions of the risk and return of the components (and the correlations). As a matter of arithmetic stocks are riskier and h...
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 15, 2017 9:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: AT & T outage - [Nationwide outage]
Replies: 12
Views: 1170

Re: AT & T outage - [Nationwide outage]

AT&T outage map No idea if this site is trustworthy...

Image
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 15, 2017 9:36 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: AT & T outage - [Nationwide outage]
Replies: 12
Views: 1170

Re: AT & T outage - [Nationwide outage]

Reminds me of being in college in 1965, sitting in the dark in Cambridge, Massachusetts, with flashlights, listening to portable radios... picking up radio stations far away because all the nearby stations were out... and listening to a Canadian station telling us that "rumors that the blackout exte...
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 15, 2017 7:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you subscribe to taking risk only on the equity side
Replies: 40
Views: 2157

Re: Do you subscribe to taking risk only on the equity side

I don't think of a portfolio this way. I think of a portfolio having risk and return as an entity. The risk and return of the portfolio can be calculated from the weighted proportions of the risk and return of the components (and the correlations). As a matter of arithmetic stocks are riskier and h...
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 15, 2017 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The passive investing trap
Replies: 19
Views: 2952

Re: The passive investing trap

You can find charts and numbers on the cumulative and annualized real return of the stock market, including dividends, in many places. If that chart is supposed to be showing that the losses of the bear markets have wiped out the gains from bull markets, it just ain't so. I can assure you that from ...
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 15, 2017 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bitcoin: Significance of 12 transactions per second?
Replies: 28
Views: 2779

Re: Bitcoin: Significance of 12 transactions per second?

That wiki has its own page on scalability that's over six years old. You mean the one that begins "[Note: This page is seriously outdated and largely unmaintained; due to past incidents of edit-warring it has not been subject to much peer review.]?" And there's also a Wikipedia page devoted to the ...
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 15, 2017 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you subscribe to taking risk only on the equity side
Replies: 40
Views: 2157

Re: Do you subscribe to taking risk only on the equity side

I am curious, as Larry Swedroe and others have said to take your risk on the equity side. It would seem to me that there are legitimate opportunities in preferred stocks and convertible bonds that lie somewhere between bonds and stocks to add some return without the same risk levels of equities. Do...
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 15, 2017 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bitcoin: Significance of 12 transactions per second?
Replies: 28
Views: 2779

Re: Bitcoin: Significance of 12 transactions per second?

It is significant in three ways. 1) It is another example of bitcoin not being what its advocates said it was . One more "oh, yeah, everybody in the in-group knew about that but we forget to mention it to you until now." The most convincing case to me for bitcoin being "legit," and not just intended...
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 15, 2017 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GE and the myth of "safe blue-chip stocks"
Replies: 73
Views: 6978

Re: GE and the myth of "safe blue-chip stocks"

...“Safe blue chip stocks” is a phrase from the 70s which has meant “meager performance” since the 90s or so... As recently as 2009, Brent Arends in the Wall Street Journal was suggesting that they were an appropriate place to put emergency cash. (To be fair, but what fun is that?, $10,000 invested...
by nisiprius
Tue Nov 14, 2017 10:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GE and the myth of "safe blue-chip stocks"
Replies: 73
Views: 6978

Re: GE and the myth of "safe blue-chip stocks"

...As for the GE company, this is a very unique case. GE is much like an index fund... No, it isn't. It isn't regulated by the Investment Company Act of 1940. ...it has no restrictions it has too many of business. You name it. Like Litton Industries, ITT, and Ling-Temco-Vought. During 2008, the GE ...
by nisiprius
Tue Nov 14, 2017 10:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Keurig died...what now?
Replies: 73
Views: 4999

Re: Keurig died...what now?

A mild negative vote, or at least a caution, on the Technivorm Moccamaster (which is a filter-cone drip coffeemaker, not a K-cup unit). We've had ours for perhaps twelve years, it makes really good coffee, and the main unit seems solid and must have a bigger heater coil because it boils the water mo...
by nisiprius
Tue Nov 14, 2017 10:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Improving returns on total bond market without changing the risk profile
Replies: 8
Views: 1095

Re: Improving returns on total bond market without changing the risk profile

But he did change the risk profile. He says that plain old Total Bond had an annualized (CAGR) return of 4.64% and a standard deviation of 3.42%, but his three-fund "ideal mixture" had a return of 5.09% and a standard deviation of 3.98%. Since the standard deviation was higher, he wasn't comparing a...
by nisiprius
Tue Nov 14, 2017 3:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GE and the myth of "safe blue-chip stocks"
Replies: 73
Views: 6978

Re: GE and the myth of "safe blue-chip stocks"

...The price of GE is the lowest since the depths of the financial crisis of 2009. To her, this is a golden opportunity... I wonder if there are any shares of Enron still extent? Just think how low the prices of Enron is. Perhaps there are some Enron employees that still have printed stock certific...
by nisiprius
Tue Nov 14, 2017 2:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GE and the myth of "safe blue-chip stocks"
Replies: 73
Views: 6978

Re: GE and the myth of "safe blue-chip stocks"

Nisi, it's worse than you thought: GE shares plunge 8% for biggest decline since housing recession after turnaround plan unveiled General Electric announces it will cut its dividend in half as part of a broader corporate restructuring. It plans a renewed focus on health care, aviation and energy. C...
by nisiprius
Tue Nov 14, 2017 8:23 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Keurig died...what now?
Replies: 73
Views: 4999

Re: Keurig died...what now?

French Press Come on, folks. The premise of the original post is that his wife "likes the K-cup concept." You don't mess around with stuff your life companion likes. He wants to know if there are better K-cup brewers than Keurig-branded brewers, not if there is any other way to make coffee. Some pe...
by nisiprius
Tue Nov 14, 2017 8:01 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Keurig died...what now?
Replies: 73
Views: 4999

Re: Keurig died...what now?

You didn't say how long your wife has had it... I haven't heard anything in the folkways about Keurig machines being short-lived, and the one in the teachers' break room in the school where I substitute-teach is a Keurig 1.0 that's being going strong for at least six years, under probably heavy use....
by nisiprius
Tue Nov 14, 2017 7:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does Magic Formula works or ever worked for you?
Replies: 39
Views: 9682

Re: Does Magic Formula works or ever worked for you?

You said it was a serious question that deserves a real answer. I respect that. So in brief: It is apparent that you haven't read Greenblatt. Otherwise, you'd see that there are not 2 Magic Formulas. The so called "Magic Formula" is really just a simple screen. For backtesting purposes, Greenblatt ...
by nisiprius
Mon Nov 13, 2017 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Flight to Quality:” the old way of thinking?
Replies: 16
Views: 1429

Re: “Flight to Quality:” the old way of thinking?

I've learned to pretty much ignore all the stuff about "When X happens, Y will happen, so investors will do Z, resulting in Q." All the "tends to" statements. None of it is reliable. It is all after-the-fact "rational actor" explanations of what happened the last time. I hold Vanguard Total Bond (an...
by nisiprius
Mon Nov 13, 2017 8:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GE and the myth of "safe blue-chip stocks"
Replies: 73
Views: 6978

GE and the myth of "safe blue-chip stocks"

This isn't really about GE, and it isn't a prediction--either that GE will cut its dividend, or that GE will be dropped from the Dow. But according to today's headlines, people are speculating about, even anticipating both of these things. The Dow has no mechanical rules for inclusion; as I understa...
by nisiprius
Sun Nov 12, 2017 10:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Personal Black Swan
Replies: 46
Views: 5590

Re: The Personal Black Swan

From the look and time, I’d say it was the Russian Exchange....went to zero. I do not consider that a broadly diversified portfolio - as I specified. (Shrug) Yes. That's a fair criticism of what I said. I was thinking of "diversified" in the older meaning of "invested in the stocks of many differen...
by nisiprius
Sun Nov 12, 2017 8:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Makes U.S. Treasuries the World's "Safe" Asset?
Replies: 24
Views: 2426

Re: What Makes U.S. Treasuries the World's "Safe" Asset?

Just to point out the obvious, whether or not they are the world's safe asset today, things can change, and with surprising speed. In the James Bond novels, in Thunderball (1961), Ernst Stavro Blofeld says proudly that all of SPECTRE's funds in held in "Swiss francs and Venezuelan bolivars...the har...
by nisiprius
Sun Nov 12, 2017 7:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bitcoin: Significance of 12 transactions per second?
Replies: 28
Views: 2779

Re: Bitcoin: Significance of 12 transactions per second?

Poster grayfox went on a five page discovery of Bitcoin. Here is where he discovered the capacity problem. https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=3504009#p3504009 Ron Wow, that's all fascinating. I'm a bitcoin skeptic but not so obsessed with it that I'd followed that thread. Apart from e...
by nisiprius
Sun Nov 12, 2017 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we headed for a crash or...
Replies: 19
Views: 1766

Re: Are we headed for a crash or...

HAMLET: Do you see yonder cloud that's almost in shape of a camel? LORD POLONIUS: By the mass, and 'tis like a camel, indeed. HAMLET: Methinks it is like a weasel. LORD POLONIUS: It is backed like a weasel. HAMLET: Or like a whale? LORD POLONIUS: Very like a whale. Take a clean copy of that chart, t...
by nisiprius
Sun Nov 12, 2017 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My favorite bond portfolio
Replies: 19
Views: 2556

Re: My favorite bond portfolio

A key question is: suppose one holds both intermediate-term bonds and cash. (By "cash" I mean carefully chosen, interest-earning accounts). Can you really make an important, worthwhile improvement by going from two categories--intermediate-term bonds and cash--to three--intermediate-term bonds, shor...
by nisiprius
Sun Nov 12, 2017 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: AA: Should I List Junk Bond Fund Under Stocks or Bonds?
Replies: 12
Views: 708

Re: AA: Should I List Junk Bond Fund Under Stocks or Bonds?

The stocks/bonds/cash (aka equities/fixed income/short-term reserves) classification is imprecise, but the conclusions one would draw from it are imprecise, too. It's always a problem because there are always assets that don't fit. On the other hand, Vanguard provides only four LifeStrategy funds, w...
by nisiprius
Sun Nov 12, 2017 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Personal Black Swan
Replies: 46
Views: 5590

Re: The Personal Black Swan

...But really, any broadly diversified portfolio, if held long-term and rebalanced, is pretty safe in the sense that a catastrophic market loss is effectively impossible... Nope. It's possible. https://s8.postimg.org/64qwe59sl/Captura_de_pantalla_2017-11-12_a_la_s_11.01.55_AM.png https://s8.postimg...
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 11, 2017 8:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My favorite bond portfolio
Replies: 19
Views: 2556

Re: My favorite bond portfolio

"Furthermore, he makes the case to mix short and intermediate term bonds. This way, the bonds will do exactly what you need them to do in the event of a crisis." During the financial crisis of 2008-2009, I felt that plain old total bond (VBMFX, blue) did do exactly what I needed it to do. Arguably t...
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 11, 2017 8:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My favorite bond portfolio
Replies: 19
Views: 2556

Re: My favorite bond portfolio

...but i'm not sure how he is running his backtest starting in 1970 as he claims. tips didn't exist then... ...and I don't know of any short-term TIPS fund before 2009. Indeed, this article says: Pimco To Launch First Short-Term TIPS ETF August 24, 2009 Pimco is ready to launch the first short-term...
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 11, 2017 6:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?
Replies: 61
Views: 5824

Re: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?

I used to say "just tell me how much of your stock allocation you want to be invested internationally, from 0 to 50%, and I can find you an expert who recommends that allocation." Now I can take out that reservation and just say, unconditionally, "just tell me how much of your stock allocation you w...
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 11, 2017 10:22 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Swedish Death Cleaning [De-clutter your home]
Replies: 60
Views: 6159

Re: Swedish Death Cleaning

I won't get too far into it except to say that in some cases, in the case of things like books that were really important to me forty years ago when I was in grad school, or other items which have sentimental value and I keep around for the memories they trigger... I find that it is easier to let go...
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 11, 2017 10:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much does diligent rebalancing add to a portfolio?
Replies: 35
Views: 2241

Re: How much does diligent rebalancing add to a portfolio?

One caution about "diligently." William J. Bernstein wrote this, and in this case the authority has a special status because he helped to popularize the phrase "rebalancing bonus:" Is there any reason to believe that, on average, rebalancing will help more than it hurts? Not if we believe that marke...
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 11, 2017 8:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much does diligent rebalancing add to a portfolio?
Replies: 35
Views: 2241

Re: How much does diligent rebalancing add to a portfolio?

Rebalancing forces investors to leverage volatility (buy low and sell high). If your 50-50 portfolio drifts to 60-40 as market valuations increase, you sell stocks to bring it back to 50-50, and if there's a recession or market correction and it drifts to 40-60 you buy stocks at a lower price. Let'...
by nisiprius
Fri Nov 10, 2017 9:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Next Bear Market, Ben Carlson
Replies: 13
Views: 2051

Re: The Next Bear Market, Ben Carlson

Excellent. I particularly liked: There is near universal agreement that many investors will freak out during the next downturn in stocks yet no one assumes they will be part of this group that panics. Surely, everyone else will become hysterical when stocks get crushed but I’ll stay level-headed and...
by nisiprius
Fri Nov 10, 2017 9:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Individual Stocks
Replies: 22
Views: 1383

Re: Individual Stocks

Thanks! Any thoughts on Dividend Aristocrats? Yeah. My thoughts are that they aren't very different from the rest of the stock market. Or, at least, since inception of the SPDR S&P Dividend ETF, SDY, which tracks the S&P High Yield Dividend Aristocrats Index, it hasn't behaved very differently from...
by nisiprius
Thu Nov 09, 2017 8:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do telecom stocks have a future?
Replies: 64
Views: 3275

Re: Do telecom stocks have a future?

I still have a fairly large lump of big telecom stocks from my legacy of working in that field. (1) Does telecom have a future or will cord-cutting kill this industry? (2) Are these stocks worth keeping as quasi-bond equivalents? (3) I read somewhere that they are essentially like convertible bonds...
by nisiprius
Thu Nov 09, 2017 11:37 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What backup service to use?
Replies: 28
Views: 2039

Re: What backup service to use?

I'm testing Backblaze with Mac OS X. I've only been using it for four weeks and don't have a definitive opinion yet. I'm quite unhappy about what Code42 (Crashplan) did, and it's too long a story but the reason why I'm not just using up my remaining year with them is that I just upgraded to a new Ma...
by nisiprius
Thu Nov 09, 2017 9:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Eye Doctor $30 to get your Rx? Is this normal?
Replies: 78
Views: 5234

Re: Eye Doctor $30 to get your Rx? Is this normal?

My interpretation and guesswork is that the place she went to was probably legal, but dishonest in a small way: they possibly have a policy of waiving the cost of the refraction if you buy glasses there. But they did not explain that up front. Eye doctors' offices around here typically have a big si...
by nisiprius
Thu Nov 09, 2017 9:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has “Dividend Yield” Become Globally Obsolete?
Replies: 35
Views: 2155

Re: Has “Dividend Yield” Become Globally Obsolete?

Very interesting stuff, SimpleGift, you are calling attention to lots of interesting stuff, thanks... NASDAQ has a "buyback achievers" index, there's at least one ETF that tracks it (PKW) and at least one international buyback achievers ETF (IPKW). I keep waiting for them to get some forum attention...
by nisiprius
Thu Nov 09, 2017 9:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS at a young age?
Replies: 23
Views: 1064

Re: TIPS at a young age?

...And they are very volatile... Very volatile? 60/40, Total Stock and Total Bond (VBMFX), portfolio 1, blue; 60/40, Total Stock and Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities, VIPSX, portfolio 2, red. 80/20, Total Stock and Total Bond, portfolio 3, orange. Source https://s1.postimg.org/7ycwxrwdbj/Cap...