Search found 36322 matches

by nisiprius
Sat Dec 15, 2018 9:09 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I made a mistake by not selling when the market was high this year
Replies: 56
Views: 3863

Re: I made a mistake by not selling when the market was high this year

You didn't make a mistake by "not selling when the market was high." You made a mistake by believing that the stock market is risky for everybody else, but not for you, because you always know the right time to sell. "Take your share of trouble, face it and don't complain: If you want the rainbow, y...
by nisiprius
Sat Dec 15, 2018 8:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds stocks commodities etc all declining. What to do?
Replies: 6
Views: 306

Re: Bonds stocks commodities etc all declining. What to do?

This is the great fear people have been clamorong about. What happens when theres little to invest in? If this is so do we run for the hills and keep cash only?... We stay the course and tighten our belts. The market never promised you anything, the market owes you nothing, bad times happen, everyb...
by nisiprius
Fri Dec 14, 2018 10:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Robinhood to offer 3% cash management program, not a bank account]
Replies: 157
Views: 9214

Re: [Robinhood to launch 3% interest bearing accounts, but is not a bank]

They removed the "Checking & Savings" FAQ in their FAQ section. Yesterday: https://web.archive.org/web/20181213225226/https://support.robinhood.com/hc/en-us Now: https://support.robinhood.com/hc/en-us Hmmmm maybe they're not so confident about what exactly it is they're offering. Was it actually av...
by nisiprius
Fri Dec 14, 2018 8:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1576
Views: 219014

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

...And, frankly, QSPIX really shouldn't be compared to equities except for giggles... It's OK for a QSPIX/QSPNX advocate to compare it to equities The expectation is that the fund will produce equity-like returns, but with about half the volatility of the market, but it's not OK for the rest of us ...
by nisiprius
Fri Dec 14, 2018 7:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ?Admiral share availability in other brokerages?[Yes, after a few weeks they are now appearing at other brokerages.]
Replies: 30
Views: 2996

Re: ?Admiral share availability in other brokerages?[Yes, after a few weeks they are now appearing at other brokerages.]

I've never known what business magic lies behind mutual funds being offered by brokerages. I'd like to know. It is obviously some kind of case-by-case business deal between brokerage and mutual fund company. Back in the 1980s when stock certificates were scratched into clay tablets with chipped flin...
by nisiprius
Fri Dec 14, 2018 7:39 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Favorite Purchase of 2018?
Replies: 61
Views: 3013

Re: Favorite Purchase of 2018?

Really glad I sprung $20 for an electric "shoe, boot, and glove dryer" at a local bargain-deal store. I guess they regularly cost $35 or so, and I didn't know if they were any good. I think they are. Way better than stuffing crumpled newspaper into damp shoes. The one I got look almost exactly like ...
by nisiprius
Fri Dec 14, 2018 7:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Robinhood to offer 3% cash management program, not a bank account]
Replies: 157
Views: 9214

Re: [Robinhood to launch 3% interest bearing accounts, but is not a bank]

The account cash balance should stay the same. If RobinHood goes bankrupt and cannot payout the SIPC will pay. No ? I don't think the balance should change based on Robinhood's fortunes. I can't seem to find details on Robinhood, but I don't believe it's a true "cash balance" as in brokerage cash a...
by nisiprius
Fri Dec 14, 2018 5:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: A "super mega roll" of toilet paper = 6 "regular rolls:" is this possible?
Replies: 60
Views: 3293

Re: A "super mega roll" of toilet paper = 6 "regular rolls:" is this possible?

OnTrack wrote:
Fri Dec 14, 2018 12:57 am
Some history of the size of toilet paper rolls:
https://www.efoodsdirect.com/blog/get-i ... appearing/
Thank you... particularly for confirming the 500-sheets-of-two-ply standard: "circa 1970, the typical toilet paper roll contained 500 good-sized sheets."
by nisiprius
Fri Dec 14, 2018 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth: 3 Correlation Myths In Portfolio Construction
Replies: 65
Views: 3541

Re: Allan Roth: 3 Correlation Myths In Portfolio Construction

[Chart of US stocks and Long-Term Treasury annual return, 1978-present] ...Two observations: 1. In about half the years one asset delivered positive returns while the other asset delivered negative returns. 2. There has never been a year when both assets delivered negative returns. I am using the S...
by nisiprius
Fri Dec 14, 2018 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Robinhood to offer 3% cash management program, not a bank account]
Replies: 157
Views: 9214

SIPC "disagrees with the statement that these funds are protected by SIPC."

Scooped... but I'm not going to waste these red flags. https://imgur.com/D6brn59.png https://imgur.com/D6brn59.png https://imgur.com/D6brn59.png https://imgur.com/D6brn59.png https://imgur.com/D6brn59.png https://imgur.com/D6brn59.png https://imgur.com/D6brn59.png https://imgur.com/D6brn59.png https...
by nisiprius
Fri Dec 14, 2018 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth: 3 Correlation Myths In Portfolio Construction
Replies: 65
Views: 3541

Re: Allan Roth: 3 Correlation Myths In Portfolio Construction

...Aren’t long bonds more highly correlated with equities?... (Putting it accurately in the past tense) I would say "no, they have not been." My favorite if slightly-out-of-date reference book, 2015 Ibbotson SBBI Classic Yearbook is showing, 1926-2014: Long-term government with large-cap stocks, -0...
by nisiprius
Fri Dec 14, 2018 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth: 3 Correlation Myths In Portfolio Construction
Replies: 65
Views: 3541

Re: Allan Roth: 3 Correlation Myths In Portfolio Construction

...Equities and bonds overall uncorrelated, but the correlation tends to turn strongly negative just when you would want it to the most... Do you have any data for the "tends to" statement? I've found that very often "tends to" statements seem to apply to exactly one conspicuous past event... in th...
by nisiprius
Fri Dec 14, 2018 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth: 3 Correlation Myths In Portfolio Construction
Replies: 65
Views: 3541

Re: Allan Roth: 3 Correlation Myths In Portfolio Construction

Also: There's only one really robust case known: stocks and bonds The specific case of stocks and bonds has worked, in a small way , over most past periods and most examples of "stock" and "bond" assets. The correlation has been close to zero ( not consistently negative, but consistently very low). ...
by nisiprius
Fri Dec 14, 2018 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth: 3 Correlation Myths In Portfolio Construction
Replies: 65
Views: 3541

Re: Allan Roth: 3 Correlation Myths In Portfolio Construction

It's a great article. I think "correlations" are 90% BS. Here are some of the issues. A facile talking point for bad investments "Correlations" are often trotted out because they are something that can be claimed when nothing better can be said. (Much the same is true of "diversification.") There ar...
by nisiprius
Thu Dec 13, 2018 9:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: A "super mega roll" of toilet paper = 6 "regular rolls:" is this possible?
Replies: 60
Views: 3293

A "super mega roll" of toilet paper = 6 "regular rolls:" is this possible?

This is strictly a question of whether anybody is clever enough to concoct some explanation, however strained, of how this could possibly be truthful. Charmin claims that its "super mega rolls" are equivalent to "6 rolls in 1." https://imgur.com/7lKwxOx.png They also state that the four-roll package...
by nisiprius
Thu Dec 13, 2018 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Robinhood to offer 3% cash management program, not a bank account]
Replies: 157
Views: 9214

Re: 3% Interest on checking and savings account - Robinhood

It is SIPC insured. You are still covered for 250k I think that's very unclear. FDIC and NCUA deposit insurance has a long track record of working smoothly for depositors when banks and credit unions have failed--it's not even an inconvenience most of the time. I know that because I had an importan...
by nisiprius
Thu Dec 13, 2018 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Allocation when cost of living expenses covered
Replies: 23
Views: 1205

Re: Allocation when cost of living expenses covered

...My question is, with most expenses pretty much covered by a steady reliable income stream, what mutual fund allocation should I keep in my 401k. Off the top of my head, I was considering something conservative like 70/30 bond index/stock index funds. Does that make sense? Why take risks if I don...
by nisiprius
Thu Dec 13, 2018 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there any market that is not inflated?
Replies: 58
Views: 3552

Re: Is there any market that is not inflated?

Is there any market that is expected to do better than flat over the next decade? Maybe not. Sometimes you just have a lousy decade. It's happened before, it will happen again. Why not? You have to stay open to the possibility. Markets do not care about your needs or your aspirations and make you n...
by nisiprius
Thu Dec 13, 2018 8:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will the 2008 recession help avoid severity of the next recession?
Replies: 39
Views: 2224

Re: Will the 2008 recession help avoid severity of the next recession?

Just an anecdote, that doesn't cut either way. I take Spanish lessons by videocall from a teacher in Latin America. She likes to assign me articles in Spanish to read in bbcmundo, a Spanish-language site edited by BBC World. I honestly don't know if she picks articles that interest her, or articles ...
by nisiprius
Thu Dec 13, 2018 8:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "How NOT To Beat The Market"
Replies: 15
Views: 2178

Re: "How NOT To Beat The Market"

What matters is the portfolio as a whole; need to look at the behavior of entire portfolios with and without QSPIX. Indeed. And some results I found are just exactly in the grey area of endless argument. However, I would like advocates of QSPIX/QSPRX to volunteer some reasonable baseline portfolio ...
by nisiprius
Thu Dec 13, 2018 7:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "How NOT To Beat The Market"
Replies: 15
Views: 2178

Re: "How NOT To Beat The Market"

QSPIX has not promised “beating the market”. No, but Taylor has accurately quoted the article he linked to, where the author said "The expectation is that the fund will produce equity-like returns, but with about half the volatility of the market." If people are going to set expectations of "equity...
by nisiprius
Wed Dec 12, 2018 10:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Pot Stocks
Replies: 6
Views: 748

Re: Pot Stocks

Don't do it unless you personally have a deep understanding of the production and business aspects of the business. (I don't, and so I wouldn't touch it with a ten-foot pole). Everybody knows that legal marijuana is likely to experience high growth, and the stocks are in demand by thousands of inves...
by nisiprius
Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NPR On Point: Stock Market Distress Signal: How Low-Cost Index Funds Are Taking Over
Replies: 25
Views: 3355

Re: NPR On Point: Stock Market Distress Signal: How Low-Cost Index Funds Are Taking Over

I guess the answer to this is Vanguard 1, Vanguard 2, Vanguard 3, Fidelity 1, Fidelity 2, Fidelity 3, Blackrock 1, Blackrock 2, and Blackrock 3. The Teddy Roosevelt solution. Vanguard already has both a "Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund" and a "Vanguard Total Bond Market II Index Fund" (which ...
by nisiprius
Tue Dec 11, 2018 3:04 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: dry eyes- optimal laptop screen resolution to reduce eye strain
Replies: 27
Views: 1322

Re: dry eyes- optimal laptop screen resolution to reduce eye strain

Things like eyestrain are very subjective, you just have to judge for yourself and buy gear with return privileges. One thing I'll say is that reflections on a screen are deadly, just deadly. It's much better now with flat screens, but even the slightest reflection is bad, and the thing is that you ...
by nisiprius
Tue Dec 11, 2018 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Motley Fools is now for fools only?.....RIP
Replies: 30
Views: 6613

Re: Motley Fools is now for fools only?.....RIP

They've been hawking stock tips for quite some time now. I can't remember how long it's been or what their original idea was--picking individual stocks through do-it-yourself research, I think?
by nisiprius
Mon Dec 10, 2018 7:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Low need to take risk - decrease allocation to stocks?
Replies: 42
Views: 3112

Re: Low need to take risk - decrease allocation to stocks?

1) I have a real problem with the whole concept of "need" to take risk. You "need" to do something if a bad thing will happen if you fail to do it, but not if you do it. Stock investing does not change the downside much, although (in my opinion a strong argument for it) it doesn't make the downside ...
by nisiprius
Sun Dec 09, 2018 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: does the 4% withdrawal guideline include dividends?
Replies: 43
Views: 2983

Re: does the 4% withdrawal guideline include dividends?

The 4% rule tells you the total amount you are allowed to withdraw and spend. "Spend" includes what you spend onpaying taxes. It isn't "4% after taxes," it's just 4%. It's your total allowance. It doesn't matter how it comes out of your portfolio--whether it's because you issue a "sell" order, wheth...
by nisiprius
Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: does the 4% withdrawal guideline include dividends?
Replies: 43
Views: 2983

Re: does the 4% withdrawal guideline include dividends?

But what I am reading above is that you would take 40,000 (4% of 1M) each year regardless of what your portfolio's current value was. Is this a correct interpretation? Not quite. The other part is that you are allowed to put a cost-of-living allowance (COLA) on the amount. You are allowed to pace i...
by nisiprius
Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: does the 4% withdrawal guideline include dividends?
Replies: 43
Views: 2983

Re: does the 4% withdrawal guideline include dividends?

Yes, it does. This is a complicated and intensely debated topic but let me begin by answering your question as simply as possible. 1) All "safe withdrawal rate" studies are based on the total return of stocks--including dividends, which are part of total return. (Total return is the total of two num...
by nisiprius
Sun Dec 09, 2018 11:32 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Christmas Tree Fire: Watered Tree vs. Dry Tree
Replies: 18
Views: 2246

Re: Christmas Tree Fire: Watered Tree vs. Dry Tree

I am bitterly disappointed. Here I was all set to enjoy a spirited discussion between people arguing that it is safer to water them and people arguing it is safer to let them dry out. One can only imagine what it was like in the days when people put candles on trees. At last the candles were lit, an...
by nisiprius
Sun Dec 09, 2018 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: SPIA or CD Ladder
Replies: 31
Views: 2301

Re: SPIA or CD Ladder

When I've heard the term SPIA, it has always referred to a life annuity that pays out for life. Such annuities may or may not be also include a "guaranteed term," e.g. ten years, during which the payments are made--to your heirs--if you do not survive. Financially, SPIAs are insurance, which invests...
by nisiprius
Sun Dec 09, 2018 9:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What am I not getting about the value of TIPS funds?
Replies: 23
Views: 2202

Re: What am I not getting about the value of TIPS funds?

The question becomes how does the government calculate the inflation rate and is it accurate. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is transparent about how it calculates the inflation rate, there is no black-box secrecy involved. During the time period when the MIT Billion Prices Project, which estimates...
by nisiprius
Sun Dec 09, 2018 8:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Has anyone adjusted their stock allocation on the dip?
Replies: 39
Views: 3276

Re: Has anyone adjusted their stock allocation on the dip?

Not I. I rebalance simply to maintain my desired level of risk, not in the belief of any "rebalancing bonus" or opportunistic incremental gain. It would take an awful lot more than a 10% stock market decline to get me so far below my comfort zone that I would feel that I actually needed to rebalance...
by nisiprius
Sat Dec 08, 2018 7:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International underperformance - how to break it down
Replies: 52
Views: 4050

Re: International underperformance - how to break it down

Maybe this, going back to 1900? 6.4% annualized for US, 4.3% annualized for World ex-US ("international.") It can't all be the FAANGs. Don't let the chart scaling fool you, returns for international stocks were so much less than US that the US chart goes to $10,000 and the World ex-US chart only goe...
by nisiprius
Sat Dec 08, 2018 2:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You already own international stocks with VTSMX etc [Vanguard Total Stock Market]
Replies: 57
Views: 4690

Re: You already own international stocks with VTSMX etc

"You already own international stocks with VTSMX?" No, you don't. https://imgur.com/Ot1n1uE.png I am a skeptic about international stocks--about 20-25% of my stock allocation is international, but I do not think it is of any great importance either way. But I really object to the wording "you alread...
by nisiprius
Sat Dec 08, 2018 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do long-term bonds belong in one's portfolio?
Replies: 162
Views: 8186

Re: Do long-term bonds belong in one's portfolio?

The correlation between long-term bonds and stocks has been about zero, not negative . The idea of a negative correlation is either an urban legend or recency. Or, very likely in my cynical opinion, an oversimplified (and thus false) conceptualization, that arises because it is much easier to explai...
by nisiprius
Sat Dec 08, 2018 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do long-term bonds belong in one's portfolio?
Replies: 162
Views: 8186

Re: Do long-term bonds belong in one's portfolio?

This is what doesn't make sense to me. If you have short, intermediate, and long the aggregate duration is intermediate-like. So why not just hold intermediate? When you look at past returns, there isn't much difference between the s, i, l split and all i. I more or less agree with this. Vanguard T...
by nisiprius
Sat Dec 08, 2018 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do long-term bonds belong in one's portfolio?
Replies: 162
Views: 8186

Re: Do long-term bonds belong in one's portfolio?

Having lived through the inflation of the 1970s, I cannot imagine voluntarily locking up any really important fraction of my wealth in something that pays me a specific number of dollars at a specific date that's a decade or more away. Briefly, it seems to me that choice depends on what use you want...
by nisiprius
Sat Dec 08, 2018 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question: Jamie Dimon ( JPMorgan ) on Bonds
Replies: 18
Views: 2207

Re: Question: Jamie Dimon ( JPMorgan ) on Bonds

....I didn't see the interview, but Bloomberg reported that Jamie Dimon said he wouldn't be a buyer of long-term Treasuries at current levels.... This can't be said too often. Vague references to "bonds" in the financial news often mean long-term Treasury bonds (as opposed to "notes" or "bills"), a...
by nisiprius
Sat Dec 08, 2018 7:41 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question: Jamie Dimon ( JPMorgan ) on Bonds
Replies: 18
Views: 2207

Re: Question: Jamie Dimon ( JPMorgan ) on Bonds

Are these Morninstar growth charts before or after expenses? Growth charts, 1-3-5-10 performance numbers, virtually everything you see in mutual fund literature and just about anywhere is after expenses. That is, they represent the number of dollars you really would received if you redeemed the fun...
by nisiprius
Fri Dec 07, 2018 4:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 3458
Views: 1025215

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

I just received my copy of Stay the Course , but haven't begun it. I'm reading What If?: Serious Scientific Answers to Absurd Hypothetical Questions , by Randall Munroe, author of the XKCD webcomic. It currently on sale as an Amazon Kindle ebook for $2.99. However, my copy cost me $7.99 because I'm ...
by nisiprius
Fri Dec 07, 2018 1:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question: Jamie Dimon ( JPMorgan ) on Bonds
Replies: 18
Views: 2207

Re: Question: Jamie Dimon ( JPMorgan ) on Bonds

More generally, it means that Jamie Dimon says he is not buying bonds and wants you not to buy them, or to sell them. Which is another way of saying he wants to see lower prices on bonds. Which is another way of saying he wants to see higher yields and higher interest rates. Who is his audience? May...
by nisiprius
Fri Dec 07, 2018 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question: Jamie Dimon ( JPMorgan ) on Bonds
Replies: 18
Views: 2207

Re: Question: Jamie Dimon ( JPMorgan ) on Bonds

If you had invested $10,000 in the Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund on that date, you would now have $12,133. The growth chart looks like this: Help - How do you get a growth chart of a bond/fund/stock that includes distributions? Everything I see is always a price chart. 1) How to use Morning...
by nisiprius
Fri Dec 07, 2018 11:41 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Economics and risks of short-term medical insurance
Replies: 1
Views: 176

Re: Economics and risks of short-term medical insurance

I think your questions are their own answer. You are not going to get simple, reliable answers here and probably not anywhere. Everything is going to depend on the exact particulars of the specific policy and the specific condition, and on the insurers' unstated unpublicized policies (do they custom...
by nisiprius
Thu Dec 06, 2018 10:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question: Jamie Dimon ( JPMorgan ) on Bonds
Replies: 18
Views: 2207

Re: Question: Jamie Dimon ( JPMorgan ) on Bonds

On August 18th, 2010, Jeremy Schwartz and Jeremy Siegel wrote an article in The Wall Street Journal saying Ten years ago we experienced the biggest bubble in U.S. stock market history—the Internet and technology mania that saw high-flying tech stocks selling at an excess of 100 times earnings. The a...
by nisiprius
Thu Dec 06, 2018 6:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P undulations across time
Replies: 8
Views: 664

Re: S&P undulations across time

...How can anyone look at the run away market over the last several years and feel ok about investing right now?... Never, ever, ever have I personally "felt OK" about investing the stock market. The Bogleheads investment philosophy isn't obvious. Almost everyone starts out by thinking there has to...
by nisiprius
Thu Dec 06, 2018 5:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Retirement Is Broken And Needs To Be Reinvented
Replies: 174
Views: 11992

Re: Why Retirement Is Broken And Needs To Be Reinvented

Lack of education didn't create the problem, education isn't going to fix it.
by nisiprius
Thu Dec 06, 2018 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the division of international markets into "developed" and "emerging" meaningful?
Replies: 16
Views: 1359

Re: Is the division of international markets into "developed" and "emerging" meaningful?

The "market" in "emerging markets" refers to the whole economy or country as a world market for commerce, not to the stock market. "Emerging markets" is a kind of euphemism for what properly should be called "less-developed countries" or even "third-world countries." It is similar to the phrase "'va...
by nisiprius
Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is a 5-year CD closer in behavior to TIPS or IT?
Replies: 6
Views: 536

Re: Is a 5-year CD closer in behavior to TIPS or IT?

...I have access to a 5-year CD at 3.5% with a two month EWP...I know it isn't truly either, but for the sake of mental accounting, would you think of that CD money more in the Real or Nominal section of Fixed Income? I really don't understand. It seems crystal clear. If it doesn't have "CPI" in th...